COMMENTARY | Why Is 2021 a Crucial Year for the EU's

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COMMENTARY

Why is 2021 a Crucial Year for the EU's Engagement in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

*This Commentary was written by Valentina Grganovic|21 March 2021

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WHY IS 2021 A CRUCIAL YEAR FOR THE EU'S ENGAGEMENT IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA?

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1 WHY IS 2021 A CRUCIAL YEAR FOR THE EU'S ENGAGEMENT IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA?

Background

Following the new challenges in the international sphere caused by the global COVID pandemic and changes in the US Administration, it is crucial to reflect on the developments in the Western Balkan region, particularly Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). In December 2020, Bosnia and Herzegovina, together with the rest of the world, marked a quarter of a century after the Dayton Accords' signature that brought the civil war to an end. However, until today Bosnia and Herzegovina is a deeply divided state inside its borders and is often explained as a vague, two-levels confederation with three ethnic communities “hardly manageable at the central level”1.

After the announcement of Joe Biden's win, interestingly enough, Sarajevo's national library was coloured in the US flag with a picture of Joe Biden's visit to Sarajevo thirty years ago2. That was a clear message that Bosnia and Herzegovina expect more attention from the new US administration than the “see-no-evil economic approach” of the Trump administration3. However, in Republika Srpska – one of BiH’s two entities – the US elections results were not satisfying for many.

The European Union's position in the Western Balkan region has often been erratic. In 2014 shortly after taking the new office, the new President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, clearly stated that there would be no further enlargement until the end of his term4. That left a great vacuum for other international players like China, Russia, Turkey and the Gulf States to interfere in the region. The European Commission comprehensively changed this rhetoric by introducing ‘A credible enlargement perspective for an enhanced EU engagement with the Western Balkans’ in February 2018 after realising the threats to stability and democracy of other external actors meddling.

Finally, the new European Commission and its President Ursula Von der Leyen from the very beginning announced that her Commission would work diligently on (re)building closer relations with the Western Balkan region5. Continuation of this was also confirmed while Croatia was preceding over the European Council because the youngest EU member state decided to bring to the foreground the question of enlargement and organised the EU-Western Balkans summit in May 2020.

This new approach shows that the Western Balkan region is of utmost importance for the European Union. However, Bosnia and Herzegovina and the European Union have seen little progress in the last years. On the one hand, the reasons for this can be found in corruptive political elites that are benefiting from the status-quo and capturing the state every day more. On the other hand, external actors like Turkey, Russia and China are often producing many destabilising factors in BiH and slowing down the process of EU integration. Therefore, the question emerges: why is it crucial for the EU to work closely with the US Administration in 2021 on bringing more stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

1 Dabrowski, M., & Myachenkova, Y. (2018). The Western Balkans on the road to the European Union. Bruegel Policy Contribution. https://euagenda.eu/upload/publications/untitled-133335-ea.pdf 2 Al Jazeera Balkans - Why Biden’s victory may present an ‘opportunity’ for Bosnia. 13 November 2020 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/13/bosnia-biden 3 Edward P. Joseph (28 October 2020). How Trump Lost the Balkans. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/28/how-trump-lost-the-balkans/ 4 Juncker, J.-C. (2014). A New Start for Europe: My Agenda for Jobs, Growth, Fairness and Democratic Change. Retrieved from https://www.eesc.europa.eu/resources/docs/jean-claude-juncker---political- guidelines.pdf 5 Ursula von der Leyen.

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Current State of Play

The Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA)6 is an imperfect but lasting peace agreement7 that ended the war and established a new state organisation model in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Given the high recurrence rate in post-war societies, this success should not be underestimated. However, the same agreement created a complex state structure. Today, BiH is a community of three constituent peoples (Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs) and two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBIH), covering 51% of the territory and inhabited mostly by Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats. The second entity is Republika Srpska (RS), governing the remaining 49% and inhabited mainly by Bosnian Serbs8. Furthermore, the Federation of BiH is divided into ten autonomous cantons, which often slows down the quick and efficient decision-making process.

Breakdown of the political structures within Bosnia and Herzegovina9

The crisis of the state apparatus of the “world’s most complicated system of government”10 can be presented with the parliamentary elections from October 2018. Eight months after the elections, the House of Representatives of the BiH Parliament, except for the constituent session on 6 December 2018, did not have any further sessions. At that moment, there were 25 laws and 35 international agreements pending, more than a hundred different documents, such as information, decisions, resolutions, declarations11. Thus, significant issues for society remain on hold. Finally, after criticising the political situation and political elites for not forming needed institutions, the EU

6 General Framework Agreement For Peace. (1995, November 30). Retrieved from peacemaker.un.org: https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/BA_951121_Dayt onAgreement.pdf 7 Carl Bidt, (28 January 2021) Bosnia to war, to Dayton, and to its slow peace. https://ecfr.eu/publication/bosnia-to- war-to-dayton-and-to-its-slow-peace/ 8 Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina. http://www.statistika.ba 9 Center for Strategic & International Studies (2018) Bosnia and Herzegovina. https://www.csis.org/programs/european-election-watch/2018-elections/bosnia-and-herzegovina 10 Nardelli, A., Dzidic, D., & Jukic, E. (2014, October 08). Bosnia and Herzegovina: the world's most complicated system of government? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/08/bosnia-herzegovina- elections-the-worlds-most-complicated-system-of-government 11 Đugum, Aida (2019, June 12). BiH već osam mjeseci bez vlasti. Radio Slobodna Evropa. https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/bih-vlast-formiranje/29995828.html

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Delegation in BiH took the lead in these negotiations. The Special Representative, Lars-Gunnar Wigemark, put pressure on the three main parties’ leaders in BiH. These party leaders signed a draft agreement on forming a new Council of Minister on 5 August 201912. However, until today, two and a half years after the elections (!), the Federation of BiH does not have its government.

The economic situation is not stable, either. According to The World Bank Regional Economic Report13, BiH, together with the whole Western Balkan region, faces a challenging economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic that will influence the already high unemployment rate, incomes, education and jobs. What is more, a country with just 3.5 million citizens has to finance five presidents (including those at the level of entities), 13 governments and parliaments, and 149 ministries, mostly inefficient, disorganised, and very slow. According to the Index of Public Integrity14, Bosnia and Herzegovina ranks as the 113th country out of 117 in Administrative Burden. Further, in the last years, many young people are leaving to the EU countries seeking better life and wages, and according to Labor Force Survey, 36,3% of the employed labour is over the age of fifty15.

Despite all this, what is seen as the primary concern today in BiH is the state capture by the political elites16 and the complex structure that started with DPA. Many researchers and political representatives (mainly Bosniak) call for building a unitary state and/or rewriting the Dayton Agreement. However, the problem of DPA is not in preserving and ensuring national and ethnic identities but in a big difference in the structure of two entities. Therefore, the prominent nationalist party leaders in Republika Srpska often call for secession, and Croats in the Federation seek reforms that will ensure equal representation on all levels. However, a unitary state is not a solution for Bosnia and Herzegovina and it can be compared with “getting the Scots to accept total integration with

England, or the Catalans or the Basques to accept a completely unitary Spain”17

To stabilise these relations, the international community has been introducing reforms in BiH from the beginning of Dayton Agreement, successfully or not. The most important international institution in BiH is the Office of High Representative that is in BiH to oversee the peace process. OHR reports to the Peace Implementation Council, which is made of 55 countries and agencies, including the EU, US, Russia, Turkey18.

Considering the EU's influence as an international actor in BiH, it became more engaged only with introducing the double hatted Office of the High Representative and EU Special Representative in 2002. Until that moment, the EU played more of a diplomatic role and negotiated a non-written rule that the High Representative had to be European. However, the European Union presented its

12 EU in BiH. (2019, August 05). Statement by the EU Spokesperson on the agreement to form a new Council of Ministers in Bosnia and Herzegovina. http://europa.ba/?p=65022 13 The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19: Poverty and Household Welfare. Western Balkans Regular Economic Report; no.17 Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/236311590680555002/The-Economic-and-Social-Impact-of-COVID-19- Poverty-and-Household-Welfare 14 Index of Public Integrity https://integrity-index.org 15 Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Labour Force Survey 2019. http://bhas.gov.ba/data/Publikacije/Bilteni/2019/LAB_00_2019_TB_0_BS.pdf

16 Majda Ruge. (18 November 2020) Hostage state: How to free Bosnia from Dayton’s paralysing grip. European Council of Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/publication/how-europe-and-the-us-can-take-bosnia-beyond-dayton-25- years-later/ 17 Carl Bidt. 18 Office of the High Representative. Peace Implementation Council. http://www.ohr.int/international-community-in- bih/peace-implementation-council/

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unconditional support for the Western Balkans' European perspective at the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003, where the EU introduced the Stabilisation and Association Process as a region-tailored enlargement policy that will promote reforms19. The Stabilization and Association Agreement between BiH and the EU was signed in 2008 and entered into force on 1 June 2015 and in February 2016, BiH presented its application for membership of the European Union. Therefore, the idea of getting closer to Brussels was supposed to move Bosnia and Herzegovina away from Dayton.

In 2010 the EU introduced its special representative to BiH in order to strengthen its position in the country and slowly replace the OHR. However, until today there has been little progress on this matter. Other than local political elites, the problems are geopolitical contenders of the EU that increased their presence after Juncker’s Commission announcement of “no-further-enlargement”. Russia was one of the first players that used this disinterest of the EU. With its long historical ties with Serbia and Republika Srpska, Russia mostly “played a role of spoiler by launching anti-EU disinformation campaigns”20. The second actor is China, whose financial links with the WB region intensified since 2015. China is primarily investing in regional infrastructure, ports, railroads and highways with its “Belt and Road Initiative”21.

Turkey also showed as an important actor in the Western Balkans, particularly through its strong ties with BiH and Albania. However, Turkey focused on soft power and cultural, historical and religious ties, in addition to the economic activities mainly in trade, banking, construction22. Finally, the sort of novel actor in the region is the group of Gulf States that intensified touristic and financial projects in the area, mainly in BiH. Another important fact is that Gulf countries use the lack of transparency that “increases the region’s susceptibility to corruption”23.

Consequently, the new EC President, Ursula von der Leyen in her first speech24 underlined that WB region's future is in the European Union. Moreover, her reference to “the Silk Road” was a clear message that the EU can not afford a strong Chinese influence in the WB region. Even though BiH is far from opening accession negotiations, the EU is now paying more attention to its progress. Annual country progress reports can serve as an example of this change.

In the case of the US, its national security interest in BiH links mainly to Islamic radicalization and substantial Russian influence in the media, military, and the BiH economy. Building solid institutions in BiH and preventing further ethnic divisions that might search for support in their external partners such as China, Russia, Turkey, and the Gulf States is of great interest to the US.

From this analysis, it is clear that the US and the EU have a very similar position in limiting the external influence in BiH and the WB region. However, their biggest concern (and a common enemy)

19 Council of the European Union. (2003). Thessaloniki European Council. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/20847/76279.pdf 20 Florian Bieber (6 February 2018). A Way Forward for the Balkans? - Europe's New Plan Is Promising But Not Tough Enough. Foreign Affairs https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/southeastern-europe/2018-02-06/way-forward- balkans 21 Hake, M., & Radzyner, A. (2019). Western Balkans: Growing economic ties with Turkey, Russia and China. Bank of Finland. BOFIT – Institute for Economies in Transition. https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/16048/bpb0119.pdf?sequence=1 22 Hänsel, L., & Feyerabend, F. C. (2018). The Influence of External Actors in the Western Balkans. Konrad-Adenauer- Stiftung.https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=194afc48-b3be-e3bc-d1da- 02771a223f73&groupId=252038 23 ibid 24 Ursula von der Leyen. (16 September 2020). ‘State of the Union Address by President von der Leyen at the European Parliament Plenary’, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner /detail/en/SPEECH_20_1655]

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remains corruptive ruling elites that are draining public resources resulting in a weak private sector and low chances for development25. Therefore, 2021 is a crucial year for the new US Administration and the EU to work closely on reforms that would build efficient institutional apparatus in BiH because 2021 is a non-election year in BiH. By no means in this process, the EU and US should be alone.

Countries of the Quint (the US, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy), together with the Office of High Representative and other international organisations like the OSCE, should also be included as partners in this process of introducing minimal reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, in this procedure, the EU has to take a leading role because of the different set of interests the EU has in BiH and the WB region. Firstly, BiH is crucial for the EU and its member states because of its central position in the Western Balkan region and without a stable situation in BiH, there will be no stability in the whole region. What is more, from 2015, the WB region became the main migration route to the EU. To achieve more progress in these security issues, the EU has to provide the support in building functional governments in the region and diminish influence from other external actros.

Policy Recommendations

With the rise of new security issues from Eurasia to the Middle East, it is clear that the competition among great powers has never ended26, and leading states are still hungry for influence in many world’s regions. In the case of the Western Balkans and, particularly Bosnia and Herzegovina, the European Union positioned itself as the leading partner with the promise of future accession.

What is more, after 12 years of inaction from the current international High Representative, Valentine Inzko, the discussion about his replacement created many disputes. The German foreign minister announced that Germany would help BiH come again on the international political agenda and presented a former government minister Christian Schmidt as a new candidate for this position27. For some researchers, this was a dangerous and worrying step28 by Germany, created to oppose the new US Administration plans in the Western Balkans.

However, those critics should be aware that the US Administration in 2021 will be primarily working on internal matters, global pandemic crisis, climate change and building relations lost under the Trump administration. At the same time, 2021 should be a year of change in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The start of this transformation can be in the new figure at the OHR that can (re)build a picture of this institution in BiH’s society. Finally, officials from the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs29 confirmed that all PIC members were informed about this new HR initiative.

Crucial reforms needed in the whole WB region are those tackling organised crime, corruption and the rule of law. In the latest Commission’s Opinion on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s application for EU

25 Majda Ruge 26 Daniel H. Nexon. (15 February 2021) Against Great Power Competition. The U.S. Should Not Confuse Means for Ends. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-02-15/against-great-power-competition 27 Federal Foreign Office (20 January 2021) https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/-/2435772 28 Jasmin Mujanovic (29 December 2020). Germany’s Push for New High Representative to Bosnia is Worrying. BIRN. https://balkaninsight.com/2020/12/29/germanys-push-for-new-high-representative-to-bosnia-is-worrying/ 29 FENA News. (27 January 2021) Schütz: Christian Schmidt will be confirmed as the new High Representative in BiH. https://www.fena.news/international/schutz-christian-schmidt-will-be-confirmed-as-the-new-high-representative-in-bih/

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membership30, those reforms are set as a high priority because, from the 2000s, there was almost no development in these areas. Moreover, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, British and American ambassadors in a joint blog at the beginning of 2021 also announced that their main concern in BiH is the rule of law31.

Therefore, to move BiH forward and closer to Brussels and create more stability, the EU, together with the US as the leading partner in BiH, should use influence and resources to create more pressure on political elites that captured the state. That could be done with proper monitoring approaches, introducing penalties, establishing reform commissions between the embassies and international organisations in BiH. Finally, that can be a profound message that, in 2021, the European Union will work on building a functional system in Bosnia and Herzegovina from which its citizens will benefit the most.