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Home , Annalena Baerbock, Armin Laschet, Der Spiegel, Reiner Haseloff, Ursula von der Leyen

LETTER FROM German Election Scorecard

The bursting of the Greens’ Baerbock bubble and the emergence of the CDU’s Laschet. But the Greens aren’t going away.

By Klaus C. Engelen

evelopments in early address. … That beginner’s mistake party rose in national polls to almost summer may hint at the was one of several to plague the forty- 30 percent and at times overtook outcome of this year’s year-old candidate in recent weeks, ’s CDU. During the German federal elec- sowing doubt over whether she’s re- spring, a Green chancellorship seemed tions in September. ally ready for prime time.” within reach. DDelegates to the Green Party con- As Politico’s Karnitschnig report- ference, most connected digitally over a BUBBLE BURSTING ed, Baerbock “couldn’t have hoped for weekend in mid-June, adopted an elec- For the Greens, who entered a better launch of her campaign. Her tion manifesto that calls for fast-tracking ’s political arena in 1980, face was on cover of Germany’s big- the switch to over the April 19, 2021, was supposed to be a gest magazines. She was the get on the next twenty years and vowing to turn historical day. In a well-orchestrated primetime talk shows that Germans Germany into a “socio-ecological mar- media coup, the Greens presented watch obsessively. With the govern- ket economy.” and their co-leader Baerbock as the party’s ing Christian Democrats tripping from her co-leader were con- candidate to succeed scandal to screw-up and back again, firmed with 98 percent. as chancellor in September’s national the Greens looked like the adults in the According to Matthew elections. Baerbock has been a mem- room. In some polls, the Greens even Karnitschnig, the Berlin correspon- ber of the since 2013. She surpassed the long-dominant Christian dent of Politico, “All she had to do was convinced her fellow party leader Democrats, triggering speculation that look in the camera, wave at the small Habeck (51), a former state minister of Baerbock might even succeed Angela audience and walk off the stage with Schleswig-Holstein for environment Merkel as chancellor. It didn’t take a big smile that said ‘mission accom- and agriculture, to leave her the big long for the wheels to come off.” plished.’ Instead, Annalena Baerbock, job of running for the chancellor posi- For the German media, the Germany’s Green candidate for chan- tion. The two co-leaders of the Greens Baerbock fairy tale was a great pub- cellor, dropped an s-bomb. ‘Scheisse!’ came into office in 2018 and were able lishing opportunity. On April 24, she declared into her still-open mi- to turn the formerly fragmented party 2021, Baerbock appeared on the cover crophone after delivering a 45-minute into an effective campaign machine of . The magazine rolled convention speech to party faithful with one big goal: to govern again. Saturday. Baerbock was apparently Thanks to their dynamic young Klaus Engelen is a contributing editor aggravated about flubbing a line in her candidate for chancellor, the Green for both Handelsblatt and TIE.

78 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY SUMMER 2021 Letter from Berlin

out the story of “two against one,” resume—came to light and the Green the nationwide trend, this result would and how Baerbock will conquer the bubble started bursting. She also got not have been possible.” chancellory for the Greens. She faces into trouble with some of her state- Armin Laschet and , who ments about what she will do in the THE HARD LINE WORKS represent the former big tent parties government, which were shortened to The CDU currently governs - CDU and SPD. As Der Spiegel puts it, toxic threats such as, “Baerbock wants Anhalt in a coalition with the Social “Two lawyers against a political scien- to do away with budget flights and no Democrats and the Greens. For tist with a focus on international law. more €29 tickets to Mallorca.” Laschet, the outcome of the last state Two governing professionals against The June 10, 2021, Sonntagsfrage election before the national elections a parliamentarian with no executive Bundestagswahl by pollsters Infratest was a big boost. experience. Two representatives from Dimap puts the CSU/CSU Union at The dreadful specter of a right- Germany’s traditional big-tent parties 28 percent voter support, the Greens wing AfD pulling ahead of the CDU against the candidate of a party hoping and damaging the standing and func- to become the next big-tent party.” Politico: “With the governing tioning of the state did not become The magazine’s editors support Christian Democrats tripping reality. This gives the governing CDU the view that “Germany finds itself at more confidence with respect to the a crossroads: The pandemic has mixed from scandal to screw-up coming national election. They can everything up and many erstwhile and back again, the Greens count on voters in the eastern states to certainties have now been called into looked like the adults help in the fight with the far right. In question. … In September, an unset- some states, the AfD has been under tled, unnerved country will be going to in the room.” surveillance by the German domes- the polls. The pandemic could largely at 20 percent, followed by the Social tic intelligence service since January be under control by then, but the cli- Democrats at 14 percent, the Alternative 2021, a factor for voters to take into mate crisis certainly won’t be.” für Deutschland at 12 percent, the Free account. And on the CDU/CSU’s claim Democrats at 12 percent, the Linke at 7 In Saxony-Anhalt, the center- to the chancellery: “For the first time percent, and others at 7 percent. right CDU under its popular state since 1949, the chancellor will not be governor won 37.1 up for reelection. There will no incum- A BIG WIN percent, a 7.3 percentage-point im- bent bonus. The era of Angela Merkel There was an unexpected big win for provement from the 2016 elections. is coming to an end … It is a com- the Christian Democrats in Merkel’s The AfD came in second with 20.8 pletely new situation for the country, home state of Saxony-Anhalt that percent, 3.5 percentage points lower and the outcome is open. But it looks contradicted the predictions of most than in 2016. According to voter flow as though there is no getting around pollsters, who were expecting big statistics, 16,000 former AfD voters Annalena Baerbock.” wins for the right-wing Alternative have moved to the CDU. Together Here one could ask why the jour- für Deutschland. This was an impor- with former voters of SPD and Linke, nalists at Der Spiegel didn’t look more tant development, since it demon- Haseloff’s CDU could count 45,000 closely at Baerbock’s résumé. When strated that a strict CDU policy of non- voters who in 2016 gave their ballots Baerbock’s professional background, cooperation with the far-right AfD can to other parties. In addition, 61,000 as was to be expected, received deep- mobilize voters to strengthen the con- new CDU voters probably were mo- er scrutiny, a string of embarrassing servative alliance as bulwark against bilized by the threat that the far-right lapses—failing to declare thousands of the far right. Der Spiegel International AfD would come in first. in income and manipulating her wrote: “With just a few months to go The Linke (Left) suffered a his- before the German general elections, torically low vote count of 11 per- Der Spiegel: “Germany the conservatives took a big step in cent, a loss of 5.3 percentage points. finds itself at a crossroads: the right direction by winning the state The SPD received 8.4 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday. The vote, 2.2 percentage points lower than The pandemic has mixed right-wing populist AfD failed to live in 2016. With only 5.9 percent, the everything up and many up to expectations.” Former rival for Greens finished at the bottom of the erstwhile certainties the CDU chair , who list, which shows the weak position is now working in Laschet’s campaign of the Greens in Germany’s eastern have now been called as a heavyweight economic policy and states. After a decade of not being into question.” business expert, claims that “without represented in the state’s parliament,

SUMMER 2021 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 79 THE MAGAZINE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY Letter from Berlin 220 I Street, N.E., Suite 200 Washington, D.C. 20002 Phone: 202-861-0791 • Fax: 202-861-0790 www.international-economy.com [email protected]

the business-friendly Free Democrats Merkel who governed with four dif- percent of CDU/CSU party support- returned with 6.4 percent, part of a ferent coalitions for sixteen years? ers favored the Bavarian governor as country-wide FDP upward movement. There was the failed CDU leader- the best and most promising chancel- On the federal, state, and communal ship of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, lor candidate in the coming national level, the FDP was able to broaden its who was not able to enforce the party elections. By contrast, only 15 percent voter base thanks to sharp criticism of rule of strict non-cooperation with the of German citizens and 17 percent of the German pandemic lock-down. AfD in the eastern state of . CDU/CSU party members favored the She took over the German defense governor of North Rhine-Westphalia DISUNITY COST VOTERS ministry when who, in the refugee crisis of 2015, In October 2018, Chancellor Angela rose to become president of the stood behind Merkel but showed weak Merkel told her fellow Christian . leadership when the Covid-19 pan- Democrats that she would not seek re- Then came the battles among demic spread in his state. election as party chairwoman, a posi- Laschet, Merz, and Norbert Röttgen, A separate opinion poll by INSA tion she has held since 2000, and also the contenders for the CDU party for the tabloid came out with a would not seek a fifth term in 2021. chair on route to win the chancellor forecast that the CDU/CSU bloc with Since then, the power base in the candidacy for the CDU/CSU. Party Laschet would struggle at a 27 percent German political system has changed members and potential voters could level of support in the fight for the significantly. see the deep divisions in the alliance. succession to Merkel, compared with For decades, the conservative As governor of North Rhine- a much stronger support level of 38 CDU/CSU alliance at the center of Westphalia, Germany’s largest state percent if Söder were the contender. Germany’s party spectrum—to quote by population, Laschet was from the Der Spiegel’s assessment—worked beginning in a pole position. Merz, DON’T WRITE OFF THE GREENS like an “election campaign machine— an old rival of Merkel’s and a for- highly disciplined with its sights fixed mer head of the U.S. Blackrock in- The editors of the -based on the goal: power. In the 2021 elec- vestment fund giant’s subsidiary in Eurointelligence who follow the tion year, though, it’s the other way Germany, came with strong backing Baerbock drama warn: “Do not un- around. The Greens seem like a ma- from the business side with the prom- derestimate the strong support the chine that is just warming up. In the ise to halve the voters of AfD in the [Green] party enjoys. What we have case of the CDU and CSU, you al- eastern states. Röttgen, as chairman seen in the last two months is that most have to wonder if they still have of the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Baerbock is not ready for the job of enough fuel.” Committee, brought foreign policy chancellor. The Greens have not pre- Did the movers and shakers in and security experience into the lead- pared for high office. The burst of the the CDU and CSU not realize what ership race. Baerbock bubble allows the Greens to it will mean campaigning in the next On January 16, 2021, in the second focus on the issues, rather than having elections in a more difficult political ballot at the party convention, Laschet to sell what turned out to be an unpre- environment, without being able to was elected CDU chairman, supported pared candidate. Most of the Greens mobilize political capital in terms of by 53 percent of the delegates. In April, are focused on the issues anyway, not the trust and credibility of an Angela he announced that he would like to be the candidate. If the Greens come out the common chancellor candidate for of these elections in a strong second Eurointelligence: “The burst the CDU/CSU, at the same time as place, they would have done very well. of the Baerbock bubble Markus Söder, the CSU head and gov- Baerbock could be a foreign minister ernor of , put his hat in the ring. in the next coalition. Habeck would allows the Greens to focus on Söder pointed to his much better stand- be the finance minister. Perhaps even the issues, rather than having ing in the opinion polls. more important would be the possibil- to sell what turned out to be This led to a bitter and bruising ity that Katrin Göring-Eckardt could standoff until the early morning of replace Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a an unprepared candidate. If April 20, 2021, when Laschet won the Social Democrat, as German presi- the Greens come out of these backing of senior party members in a dent. The point is that there are big- elections in a strong second 31–9 vote of the CDU executive board. ger issues at stake for the Greens than A few days before, the ARD- whether their inexperienced co-leader place, they would have done DeutschlandTrend pollsters found that is going to become chancellor this very well. 44 percent of German citizens and 72 year.” u

80 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY SUMMER 2021