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Home , Armin Laschet, Hanns Seidel Foundation

IRMO Institut za razvoj i međunarodne odnose Institute for Development and International Relations I R M O Ured u Zagrebu

B R E F 08 2021 I

The Era of German Chancellor : What Was and What Remains?

By Thomas Brey

Forbes for the tenth time in a row. In 2015, Introduction the US magazine Time named her “Person of the Year” on its cover. Merkel has received the After the general election in at the end highest state honors from Italy to Peru, from of September, Angela Merkel will step down Portugal to Israel. In 2011, she was awarded as Chancellor at the age of 67. She held this the Presidential Medal of Freedom - one of the two highest state decorations in the USA. The almost exactly 16 years (2005-2021). She will most important political office in Germany for world’s honorary doctorates are legion. thus equal the record of her former political mentor and Chancellor (1982- Merkel had a picture-perfect professional career, 1998). In 2021, she was named “Most Powerful although by today’s standards she became Woman in the World” by the US magazine

politically active for the first time relatively late,

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1 Merkel’s “reliable political style” became involved in the opposition. As “Kohl’s at the age of 35. In the final phase of the GDR, she is appreciated by her supporters girl” (“Kohls Mädchen”) she became Minister for as a trademark in times of erratic Women’s Affairs as early as 1989, then Minister politicians. for the Environment (1994-1998), CDU General Her supporters also praise Merkel’s “booting (until 2018). She completed her studies in East Secretary (1998-2000) and finally Party Chair Germany with a highly praised dissertation. for the parliamentary group chair, Friedrich When she became Chancellor in 2005, she was out of alpha males” in the CDU, such as her rival

Koch, the top foreign policy expert Norbert Chancellor from East Germany. Merz, the Hessian Prime Minister Roland the first woman to hold the office and the first Wolfgang Schäuble. As a result, German politics Röttgen or the current President The Merkel Policy has become much more “female”. The prime example is the current President of the EU The Neue Zürcher Zeitung, which is also Commission, , who, with respected in Germany, recently characterized Merkel as a “technocrat of power”. Visionary is Germany and now internationally. Merkel’s support, first made her career in not her thing. She can “at best administer, but not lead”. On the other hand, Merkel’s “reliable The Merkel Problems political style” is appreciated by her supporters as a trademark in times of erratic politicians The upheavals in the political landscape like Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Merkel moved her conservative party more scientist, she possesses the ability to delve took place during Merkel’s term in office. Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. As a natural and more towards the center in terms of its into complex problems and derive rational program. Commentators spoke of a “social decisions from them. The chancellor often

This adjective has meanwhile become a democratization of the Christian Democrats”. justified her decisions as “without alternative”. this as “arbitrariness of program”. Voters no common word - sometimes, however, with Conservative counterparts in the CDU criticized longer knew what the party actually stood for. an ironic connotation. The “Merkel rhombus”

the way for the rise of movements and even meant to show calmness and serenity. The CDU’s shift in the political spectrum paved with thumb and index finger of both hands was parties on the right-wing, often extreme fringe.

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2 It began with the xenophobic demonstrations In the refugee crisis since 2015, the central of Pegida in 2015 and ended in 2020/21 with decision on opening Germany’s borders was the conspiracy theorists of Querdenker. The also taken by Merkel in the smallest of circles. most visible part of this right-wing populist Together with the then Austrian Chancellor upsurge was the new Werner Faymann, it was decided in September per cent of the vote in the state of in East Station. To date, 1.4 million have come to (AfD) party, which, for example, won up to 27.5 to first let in the refugees stuck in Budapest’s best result to date in the last federal election in phrase “We can do it” has been quoted and 2019. On a national level, the AfD achieved its live in the Federal Republic. Merkel’s legendary 2017 with 12.6 per cent. criticized thousands of times. The Chancellor has been accused by critics that her policy of Under the impression of the open borders has not only attracted asylum Fukushima nuclear disaster, seekers who have rightly sought protection in the Merkel government made a so-called economic refugees have also come in radical turnaround and heralded Germany under the Basic Law, but that many the hope of a better life in the West. the nuclear phase-out.

Merkel has often taken important decisions in The Merkel reform backlog the narrowest circle of advisors when broad parliamentary approval would have been Where does Germany stand at the end of necessary. Only after her decision was made the “Merkel era”? One of Germany’s top did Merkel seek political legitimacy. As late as 2009, she praised general conscription in head and current chairman of the supervisory industrialists, Wolfang Reitzle, the long-time Germany as an “important link between society board of gas producer Linde, gives the chancellor a damning report card: The situation however, conscription came to an unexpected is “shameful for a leading industrial country” and the armed forces”. Just two years later, end. In autumn 2010, the government extended and “after almost 16 years of Merkel, Germany the lifetimes of nuclear power plants (AKW) in is a case of reorganization in many areas”. With that, at least, he is not entirely wrong. of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the Merkel The upheaval in the automotive sector - away Germany. In June 2011, under the impression government made a radical turnaround within from the combustion engine and towards a few days and heralded the nuclear phase-out. electric drives - was really slept through in this

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3 key German industry. State subsidies for the reforming and expanding the education system purchase of electric vehicles, the establishment as the key to a successful economic future much of a network of charging stations and European earlier than it did recently. In all Pisa studies, battery production only started late. In these German pupils regularly end up in middle areas, US companies like Tesla or Chinese positions at best. The Corona epidemic with suppliers have often set the standards so far. its compulsory homeschooling has just shown that German schools are totally inadequately The federal government could prepared for modern forms of teaching - and and should have invested billions this applies to students and teachers alike. in reforming and expanding the education system. German weaknesses in major construction Bureaucratic bungling have also demonstrated projects. As one of the largest construction In international comparison, Germany is still almost in the Stone Age when it comes to took an incredible 14 years to be inaugurated. projects, the “Willy Brandt” airport in digitalization. Even the simplest mobile phone Mismanagement, corruption and the overtaxing network has huge holes, fast broadband internet of politicians were responsible for this. The as a prerequisite for economic success among architecturally spectacular Elbe Philharmonic companies is scarce. In telecommunications, Hall in cost an incredible 866 million the key to digitalization, Germany is also lagging euros to build, up from 77 million. The new behind and cannot keep up with Chinese railway station in Stuttgart (Stuttgart 21), providers such as , for example, in the still under construction, rose in price from an development of a 5G network. Not to mention original 2.5 to well over four billion euros - and national or at least European competition with there is no end in sight. Its completion has been postponed from 2019 to now 2025. More than Facebook, Apple and Microsoft (GAFAM). the Big Five US giants Google (Alphabet), Amazon, 560 demonstrations show that politicians have failed to win the approval of the citizens of the point of criticism of the Merkel years, even Backlog in education systems reform is another though this area falls under the competence of Centralcapital of areas Baden-Württemberg. of life such as the health and the federal states because of the federal state pension systems face an uncertain future in structure. Nevertheless, the federal government Germany. Although Germany has one of the could and should have invested billions in most expensive health care systems, its citizens

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4 are no healthier than elsewhere in Europe. The international Merkel balance sheet pensions. Fewer and fewer working young Demographic change is having an impact on Chancellor formulated as her wish for the A few months before leaving office, the age. Although the pension system is obviously future: “The must be a unity. people have to finance people of retirement heading for bankruptcy without fundamental reforms, politicians have dodged this sensitive wish is quite at odds with reality. Poland Europe is still an alliance of values“. But this issue for millions of their voters. At the moment, and Hungary, in particular, are downright the increase of the retirement age from 65 to 67 is underway. Although this transition is far from states control the media, bully the judiciary trampling on EU’s alliance of values. Both EU complete, scientists are already bringing up the and are increasingly blocking a common EU idea of retirement at 68. foreign policy. Whether it’s about the Middle

Corona epidemic with its China - Poland and Hungary prevent common East conflict or the European relationship with compulsory homeschooling has strategies of the Union when it doesn’t suit shown that German schools are their national goals. It is not only these two inadequately prepared for modern countries that are increasingly hostile to the forms of teaching. Parliament. Most recently, Hungary’s right- EU headquarters in Brussels and the European wing nationalist Viktor Orbán even demanded that the power of the need of rehabilitation. Critics now use the The , too, often appears to be in EU Parliament be limited in favor of national parliaments. EU member states should be unflattering term “cucumber troop”. Internal able to stop legislative processes in the EU analyses by the Bundeswehr GIDS representation if national areas of competence soldiers are in the event of an incident against in June 2021 have shown how powerless the are violated. “The EU Parliament has proved to combat drones. The operational readiness of be a dead end in terms of criteria of European the military technology is poor. According to democracy,” Orbán claimed. data from the current year, only 76 per cent of the equipment is operational. Only 40 per cent Poland and Hungary, in particular, of the helicopters can be used, only 54 per cent are downright trampling on EU’s 64 per cent of the combat and transport aircraft. alliance of values. of the Puma infantry fighting vehicles and only

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5 The model of “illiberal democracy” pursued by driving force. Progress in the European Orbán and Poland is apparently so attractive that it is now also being increasingly pursued unification project could only be achieved if by the right-wing nationalist Slovenian head in the “Merkel era” this motor has stuttered. these two large countries pulled together. But The experienced chancellor was particularly to get his country’s media under control, alienated from the young and dynamic of government Janez Janša. He, too, is trying with Hungarian oligarchs in Orbán’s circle , who has been president of the polyphonic European foreign policy is put the brakes on his impetuous proposals to giving him financial support. How disastrous for five years. The Merkel government can also be seen in the example of South East deepen the EU and the euro zone. The resulting Europe. Although the EU is represented in the estrangement between the two capitals was used by Macron to establish his own channels diplomats and experts, it has hardly been able Balkans with billions of euros and an army of to contribute anything to solving the many of communication, for example to Russia, problems. Whether it is the dysfunctional state European foreign policy looks different. analyses the public broadcaster ARD. A common

Serbia and Kosovo. On the contrary. The of Bosnia-Herzegovina or a settlement between The post-Merkel policy positions of the contending parties and peoples have only become more entrenched over the

Kramp-Karrenbauer as her successor, Angela the opening of EU accession negotiations After failing with the current Defense Minister decades. At the moment, Bulgaria is blocking Merkel was nevertheless able to push through with North Macedonia and the Netherlands is blocking Albania. Westphalia, Armin Laschet, as the candidate for the Minister President of North Rhine- In the history of the EU, France and Chancellor of her CDU together with its sister Germany have traditionally been a loyal supporter of Merkel’s policies, so a party in CSU. Laschet is considered considered the decisive driving continuation of her political line is likely. Like force. Merkel, Laschet is not considered a visionary who “burns” for new political goals. He has In the history of the EU, France and Germany made a name for himself as an administrator of have traditionally been considered the decisive the current.

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6 Angela Merkel was able to push Conclusion the Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia Armin Laschet was marked by a succession of equally as candidate for Chancellor. Merkel’s extraordinarily long term in office extraordinary international crises, through which Germany came through reasonably After the Greens, with their candidate for unscathed under the Chancellor’s leadership: surge in voter favour that at times pushed them chancellor Annalena Baerbock, achieved a the financial crisis following the collapse crisis following Greece’s threatened state the regular polls have now settled down to this of Lehman Brothers from 2008, the euro ahead of the CDU into first place, the results of bankruptcy 2010, via the refugee crisis from 2015 to the Corona pandemic since 2020. level: The CDU/CSU would get 25% of the vote in a referendum today, the Greens 19%, the SPD political and ideological positions throughout During this time, Merkel was adapting its key 18%, the FDP 12%, the AfD 11% and its terms as Chancellor: from compulsory politicians that coalitions with the Left and the 7%. If one believes the assurances of the top military service, to the nuclear phase-out, to taking on common debts in the EU. In AfD are an absolute taboo, these government parallel, a huge reform backlog has built up CSU will provide the chancellor and has the alliances result purely arithmetically: The CDU/ in Germany, threatening the very core of its function as a major industrialized country. In choice of making the Social Democrats and the foreign policy, too, standstill seems to be the Greens junior partners. Probably, after a CDU/ motto more and more. The major crises on government, because Laschet has been leading CSU election victory, the FDP will also enter the Europe’s doorstep, such as in Ukraine, the new exactly such a government in his state of North

Crimea, remain even rudimentarily without a Cold War with Russia after the annexation of Rhine-Westphalia for years. In any case, with an solution. Not to mention the open questions election result close to the polls, the CDU/CSU in South-Eastern Europe. The EU is becoming would need two coalition partners. The SPD, increasingly incapable of action due to its own with great skepticism. After all, it had already however, is likely to view a CDU-led coalition inability to reform the principle of unanimity, lost voters dramatically in grand coalitions with

systematic dismantling of European values the excessive Brussels bureaucracy and the a CDU sign. by some member states. In terms of domestic

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7 policy as well as foreign policy, Germany Thomas Brey is a lecturer in political science therefore needs a new start after the “Merkel era.” Germany and former chief correspondent of and journalism at the University of Duisburg,

Press Agency) for South East Europe. dpa (Deutsche Presse-Agentur - the German DISCLAIMER: The views presented in this paper are solely of the author and do not

represent an official position of the Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO) or of the Hanns Seidel Foundation.

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