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Discussion Paper Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung Center for European Integration Studies Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn Discussion Paper Andreas Marchetti (ed.) The CSCE as a Model to Transform Western Relations with the Greater Middle East ISSN 1435-3288 ISBN 3-936183-37-6 Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung Center for European Integration Studies Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn Walter-Flex-Straße 3 Tel.: +49-228-73-1880 C137 D-53113 Bonn Fax: +49-228-73-1788 Germany http: //www.zei.de 2004 About the Authors: Nabil Alnawwab is Ambassador and Regional Advisor, UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Beirut. Hüseyin Bağci is Professor at the Department of International Relations, Middle East Technical University, Ankara. Stefan Fröhlich is Professor at the Institute for Political Science, Friedrich-Alexander- University, Erlangen-Nürnberg. Nassif Hitti is Ambassador of the Mission of the Arab League to Paris. Ludger Kühnhardt is Director at the Center for European Integration Studies, Bonn. Armin Laschet is Member of the European Parliament. Ian O. Lesser is Vice President, Director of Studies at the Pacific Council on Interna- tional Policy, Los Angeles. Amichai A. Magen is Fellow at Stanford’s Institute for International Studies and Former Legal Counsel for Israel’s Attorney General. Andreas Marchetti is Junior Fellow at the Center for European Integration Studies, Bonn. Carlo Masala is Researcher at NATO Defence College, Rome. Walter Posch is Research Fellow at the Institute for Security Studies of the European Union, Paris. Lothar Rühl is former State Secretary in the German Defence Ministry and Professor at the University of Cologne. Ashot Voskanian is Ambassador, Head of Policy Planning Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Yerevan. Documentation of the V. Mediterranean Forum at the Center for European Inte- gration Studies, Bonn 24./25. June 2004 in cooperation with the Euro- Mediterranean Study Commission (EuroMeSCo) and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Sponsored by the Thyssen Foundation. The views expressed in the articles assembled in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily present any official statements on behalf of their respective institutions. Content Andreas Marchetti 5 Introduction Ludger Kühnhardt 7 System-opening and Cooperative Transformation of the Greater Middle East. A New Transatlantic Project and a Joint Euro- Atlantic-Arab Task Armin Laschet 33 Euro-Mediterranean Partnership: Beyond the Iraq crisis Lothar Rühl 43 Can the CSCE be a Role-Model to Frame the Political Processes of the Greater Middle East with Europe and the United States? Nabil Alnawwab 55 Conflict of Mythologies: The Debate on Reform of the Greater Middle East Carlo Masala 65 Is the Model of the Baskets Applicable to the Greater Middle East? 3 Stefan Fröhlich 71 How much Regional Differentiation is Necessary to Establish a Successful CSCE-analogous Process? Hüseyin Bağci 83 The Greater Middle East Project and Turkey’s Attitude towards it Ashot Voskanian 101 South Caucasus within the Perspective of Contemporary Integration Processes Amichai Magen 113 Building Democratic Peace in the Eastern Mediterranean: An Inevitably Ambitious Agenda Walter Posch 137 What Preconditions for a CSCE-like Approach for the Region? Nassif Hitti 155 The Fantasies of a Middle Eastern OSCE Ian O. Lesser 161 Institutional Issues Surrounding a CSCE-like Approach to the Middle East 4 Andreas Marchetti Introduction The last months have seen numerous proposals for a profound change of the relations between the Greater Middle East, Europe and the United States. One of the most far-reaching and ambitious plans was put forward by the United States, being labelled Greater Middle East Initiative. The ini- tial plan, leaked to the public in February, was loosely modelled on the Conference for Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE). The issue has been a central topic on the agenda of numerous meetings and summits over the past months, including the EU-US summit in Ireland and the NATO summit in Turkey. The G-8 summit at Sea Island in Georgia, USA, agreed on a – watered-down – version of the initiative. The approved Partnership for Progress and a Common Future intends to reframe Western relations with the “governments and peoples of the Broader Middle East and North Africa”. However, the identification of a certain area is already where the problems of any grand design for the region begin, since there is no general consen- sus on the geographical limits to any kind of CSCE-analogous framework. The “V. Mediterranean Forum” held at the Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI) on June 24 and 25, 2004, addressed this and other issues that need to be considered for any new framework for the relations with the Greater Middle East. The “Mediterranean Forum” at ZEI is part of a larger project of co-operation between ZEI and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation on the Euro-Mediterranean Dialogue. It takes place in the framework of Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission (EuroMeSCo) activities. ZEI and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation graciously recognize financial support of the Fritz Thyssen Foundation. Andreas Marchetti The statements and interventions made during the “V. Mediterranean Fo- rum” under the title “A CSCE-analogous framework for the Greater Middle East?” are assembled in this Discussion Paper. As fascinating and ambi- tious as a CSCE-analogous framework for the Greater Middle East might be, the concept is not totally new and revolutionary, however. Already in 1976, then-Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin proposed the establishment of a Conference on Security and Co-operation in the Middle East, framed on the CSCE accords of 1975. The idea of transposing the CSCE experi- ence to the region was then again put forward by Jordan since the begin- ning of the 1990s. Little has been done, though, to identify potentials and obstacles of such a process. The contributions published in this Discussion Paper intend to give answers to some of the questions still and again being debated in Europe, the United States and in the Greater Middle East. 6 Ludger Kühnhardt System-opening Cooperative Transfor- mation of the Greater Middle East. A New Transatlantic Project and a Joint Euro-Atlantic-Arab Task I. Redefining the strategic setting It is impossible to predict what will be the course of world politics in the twenty-first century. Possible trends have to be extrapolated from past ex- perience. And yet potential quantum leaps in science and technology, for example, are entirely unpredictable; indeed, no other development could have been less foreseeable in the early days of the twentieth century. Will mankind again witness comparable developments in science and technol- ogy over the next decades? Will they revolutionise health and energy sup- ply, demographic patterns and the geographical distribution of success and failure? Will nuclear fusion become possible, with revolutionary conse- quences for the energy needs of a growing world population? Will food, water and health services match rising global demand? Will territorial con- flicts arise as a result of unbalanced distribution of resources and wealth? Will migratory patterns, mostly involuntary in nature, have an impact on world stability, as was the case during much of the twentieth century? Will the two demographic giants, China and India, accompany modernisation with a sustainable relationship between homogeneity and pluralism, de- mocracy and stability? Will Africa catch up developmentally and in re- sponse to globalisation? Ludger Kühnhardt Whatever future of the twentieth century, world order is not a given. It will change as it always has done in the past.1 During the twentieth century Europe was at the heart of the struggle for world order and the root cause of world disorder. This chapter in world politics came to a close with the unique transformation of Europe into a continent of democracies, market economies, integration and cooperation. America’s commitment made this transformation possible and gave rise to an exceptional Euro-American success story. It gave sense and value to the notion of an Atlantic civilisa- tion. Transatlantic relations have become the strongest element of global stability and the most successful expression of trans-regional prosperity and peace in the world. The enlargement of the European Union (EU) and NATO laid the foundations for lasting Atlantic peace and prosperity, for democracy and security from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. While Euro- Atlantic relations with the Ukraine, Russia and Turkey are still evolving, they are most likely to follow the path of ‘inclusion’ that emerged after the end of the Cold War.2 The greatest danger for Americans and Europeans today comes from threats emerging from outside of Europe.3 The danger of Americans and Europeans becoming victims in big numbers results more from terrorism and rogue and failed states in the Greater Middle East than from any threat – real or potential – within Europe. Dealing with this strategic challenge to stability and security in the Western world will be the most crucial test put to this generation of leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. This is true where the resolution of a new set of problems is concerned, but also as regards the ability to reinvent transatlantic relations as a cornerstone of a stable and prosperous world order. This new challenge should be seen as a great op- portunity to revitalise an ‘Atlantic civilization’ and to change
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