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Home , Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz, Janine Wissler, Olaf Scholz, Traffic light coalition

Germany ahead of the 2021 federal elections

The German federal elections in September 2021 will mark a historic turning point: the end of the Merkel era with the departure of the Chancellor after 16 years in office. An entire generation has grown up and been politically socialised with as the ruling Chancellor. None of her male predecessors in office ruled longer than the first woman in the chancellorship - only also had a term of office of 16 years. With Angela Merkel's departure, it is highly likely that the so called "grand coalition" of CDU/CSU and SPD, which formed the government in Oliver Sartorius three of the four legislative periods under Angela Merkel's chancellorship, will also be Director Political Research replaced. and Advisory Kantar Public Germany

1 I. The decline of the people parties and the fragmentation of the German party system

Thus, the end of the Merkel era will also mark the end of the dominance of Germany's two catch-all-parties (in German called “Volksparteien”). The heydays of the centre-right CDU/CSU and centre-left SPD peaked in the mid-1970s with around 90 percent vote shares at federal and most regional elections but had started to lose popularity since the 1980s. The process of German re-unification defined a preliminary halt to the downward trend in the 1990s, but increasingly since the turn of the millennium, voters have noticeably continued to turn away from the CDU/CSU and SPD. In particular, the three "grand coalitions" of the CDU/ CSU and SPD within the last four legislative periods (2005-2009, 2013-2017, 2017-2021) have obviously accelerated the downward trend of the popular parties.

The decline of the Catch-All-Parties Development of the vote shares of CDU/CSU and SPD in national elections

60

50

40 32,9

30

20 20,5

10

0 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1972 1976 1980 1983 1987 1990 1994 1998 2002 2005 2009 2013 2017

Only after the brief episode of the With the reunification of Germany, The AfD is represented in all 16 German conservative-liberal coalition (2009- another party entered the federal state parliaments and, with 12.6 percent, 2013) both parties experienced a short- political stage: the former East German is the strongest opposition party in the term upswing. state party SED, which renamed itself 19th German . the "Party of Democratic Socialism The prolonged decline of the (PdS)" as early as 1990 and initially In its election manifesto for the 2021 popular parties was accompanied functioned primarily as an East German Bundestag elections, it advocates, by a differentiation of the German regional party. In June 2007, it merged among other things, Germany's party system, with resembled the with the West German Electoral withdrawal from the fragmentation of other European Alternative for Social Justice (WASG). and the abolition of the Euro as a countries with proportional Since then the party has been called Die common currency. representation. Alongside the three Linke. Currently, Die Linke leads the state traditional forces of the conservative government in and is part of With the establishment of a six- CDU/CSU, the social democratic SPD the state government as well as in party system in the German political and the liberal FDP, new parties entered the West-German city state of . landscape, new challenges arise for the political arena one after the other: future government formations at the In the wake of the financial crisis in 2012, federal level as well: two-party coalitions First, in the 1980s, were , the Merkel government's centrist and start to become the exception rather who had their roots in the anti-nuclear Europhile course led to the founding of a than the rule. power, environmental protection and national conservative and Euro-critical peace movements and who in their early party called Alternative for Germany phase competed as a protest- (AfD), which above all vehemently and anti-party-party. They first entered rejected the Euro and a supranational the federal parliament in 1982. With European debt management policy. In the reunification of Germany, the the wake of the refugee crisis in 2014, party merged with Bündnis 90, which the party adopted an increasingly anti- had emerged from various GDR civic migration and Islamophobic stance and, movements, to form the all-German after several evolutions, positioned itself party Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. In 2021, increasingly on the right-wing political the party is in government in eleven fringe of the party spectrum. of Germany's sixteen federal states. 2 II. Impact of the Corona-crisis on the political mood

Even more than the financial and Euro While satisfaction with the work of Conversely, government satisfaction crisis after 2008 and the refugee crisis of the federal government was still rose to 63 percent and then remained 2014, the current Corona crisis is causing comparatively low in the run-up to at a similarly high level until December profound and currently not even fully the pandemic, this changed abruptly 2020. With the start of the vaccination foreseeable changes in society. However, with the spread of the COVID virus campaign in December 2020, however, it can already be seen that the political in Germany and the accompanying an increasing number of eligible voters pandemic management in particular political measures. While 65 percent of were dissatisfied with the federal will have a considerable influence on the eligible voters were still dissatisfied with government's pandemic management Bundestag elections in September: the work of the federal government in and thus with its work as a whole: the March 2020, one month later the figure federal government left an increasingly was only 36 percent. courageous and clueless impression with regard to the pace of vaccination, the testing strategy and the enforcement of uniform federal rules.

Government Satisfaction & Approval of Pandemic Management ARD-DeutschlandTREND by Infratest dimap

Satisfaction with the performance of federal government Satisfaction with Corona-crisis management 100 100

90 90

80 80 79 less / not at all satisfied 70 70 64 less / not 60 at all satisfied 60

50 50

40 35 very 40 satisfied / 30 satisfied 30 20 20 19 very satisfied / satisfied 10 10

0 0 20 21 20 20 20 21 21 ------Nov/… Dez/… Aug/… Sep/… Jul/ 20 avr avr Okt/ 20 Okt/ Apr/20 Apr/21 Mai/ 20 Jun/20 Jan/21 mai déc févr Mrz/ 20 Mrz/ 21 Feb/ 21 janv mars How satisfied are you with the work of the federal government? Universe: Eligible voters in Germany How satisfied are you with the Corona crisis management of the federal government and the federal states? Figures in percent

The strong correlation between After the almost simultaneous announ- A decisive question between now and government satisfaction and cement of the peak candidates of the the federal elections will be whether this the assessment of the pandemic CDU/CSU and the Greens at the begin- shake-up in basic trust in the Union will management is not the only remarkable ning of May 2021, the Greens passed the last or not. thing; the associated approval ratings CDU/CSU in political sentiment for the and vote intention for the CDU/CSU are first time and are currently virtually at of note too. Before the pandemic at the the same level. beginning of 2020, the ratings of the CDU/CSU in the ARD Deutschlandtrend In addition to criticism of the mana- were around 27 percent, those of the gement of the COVID-19 pandemic, Greens within striking distance between several members of parliament of the 22 and 24 percent. With the onset of CDU/CSU had to deal with allegations the pandemic, the CDU/CSU alone of corruption and enrichment in connec- benefited from the drastic increase tion with the procurement of protective in government satisfaction, reaching masks. Indeed, there was a number of approval ratings of 39 percent as early resignations from office. All this shook as May 2020, while the Greens dropped the confidence of parts of the electorate to 18 percent in the same period. With in the Union's competence in govern- the decline in government satisfaction ment and crisis management. For a long from December 2021 onwards, the time, this was a central strength of the Union's lead melted significantly back to Union as "state party no. 1" - a corres- the pre-pandemic level. ponding weakening could thus become the Achilles' heel for the Union in the election campaign. 3 III. Peak candidates for the Chancellor’s office

For the first time since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany, an incumbent chancellor is not standing for re-election. A structural advantage for the chancellor's party threatens to become a disadvantage in the fight for the chancellorship due to the Union's unfortunate selection of candidates. instead of the usual two-way duel, a three-way contest between , and Annalena Baerbock is emerging. The leading candidates do not only represent the policies of their parties. Personalisation in politics becomes all the more important the more the party programmes are perceived by the electorate as interchangeable - a perception that has steadily increased at least over the last 20 years, for right or for wrong.

Direct Vote Federal Chancellor ARD-DeutschlandTREND by Infratest dimap (June 2021) Party supporters

Armin Olaf Annalena don´t know / Laschet Scholz Baerbock no answer

CDU/CSU 65 17 2 16

FDP 32 25 9 34

29 29 26 AfD 27 15 58 16 SPD 15 67 11 7

Linke 15 34 22 29 Armin Laschet Olaf Scholz Annalena don´t know / Baerbock no answer Grüne 6 10 74 10 +8 +5 -12 -1

Universe: Eligible voters in Germany If you could vote directly for the Federal Chancellor, who would you choose? Figures in percent / Changes in percentage points compared to May 2021

Armin Laschet (CDU) – Although Armin Laschet, as leader of the They would like to see the Union's ‘the underestimated’ much larger sister party, was ultimately profile and programme become able to prevail, he enters the election noticeably more conservative again. It Already at the beginning of 2018, three campaign noticeably battered. The was therefore a clever tactical move on quarters of Germans eligible to vote said Union did not live up to its name: even Laschet's part to bring in the ARD-DeutschlandTREND that after the decision on the top candidacy, into his campaign team, his rival within it was time for a personnel renewal in the cross-fire between the CDU and the the party who appeals above all to the the CDU. The process of this personnel CSU did continue. In addition to this needs of the value-conservative circles renewal revealed deep rifts within the show of disunity, the CDU/CSU - unlike within the CDU. Armin Laschet must party, which were concealed for a long its main competitors, the Greens and involve these parts of his own party time by Chancellor and Party Chair the SPD - has yet to adopt an election base and mobilise them in the election Angela Merkel. Neither the election of programme. campaign if he wants to win Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as the the chancellorship in autumn. new CDU leader at the end of 2018 nor Many conservatives within the CDU the election of Armin Laschet at the - especially in eastern Germany - are What Armin Laschet has in common beginning of 2021 could reconcile the dissatisfied with the party's centrist with the early Angela Merkel is that different currents within the party. In course, which was shaped by Angela he has often been underestimated by both elections, the candidate of the Merkel's refugee policy, the nuclear political competitors and professional conservative party wing, Friedrich Merz, phase-out and the abolition of observers. He has a strong will to power, could not prevail. compulsory military service. a good political instinct and - as he recently proved in the contest for the CDU/CSU's top candidacy - above- average taker qualities and staying power.

4 Olaf Scholz (SPD) – The party base is thus reacting to the ‘the experienced’ structural problems of the last two decades, in which the SPD has lost large The candidate for chancellor of the parts of its supporters to the Greens, to Social Democratic Party of Germany , to the non-voter camp and also (SPD), Olaf Scholz, is the only seasoned to the right-wing AfD. federal politician in the race for the chancellorship. He acted as Federal Although the party base did not elect Minister of Labour and Social Affairs him as party leader, Olaf Scholz was 2007-2009 and has led the Treasury, the nominated as a candidate for chancellor Ministry of Finance since 2018. at a very early stage - namely in August 2020. Since the nomination, the SPD has Olaf Scholz is considered to belong rallied remarkably united behind its top to the more conservative wing of the candidate. This is necessary given the SPD and is regarded as a supporter of gap between the candidate's realistic- the Grand Coalition. This has probably political convictions and the SPD's rather contributed significantly to the fact left-wing election programme. In order that his candidacy for the SPD party to bridge this gap, Olaf Scholz has in the chairmanship in 2019 was unsuccessful, meantime moved significantly closer to although he entered the election as the base of his party in terms of fiscal the favourite and most prominent policy and other policy issues. In the candidate. Just as there is a need for a political mood, however, the party has more conservative profile in parts of the remained around 15% for some time. CDU/CSU after long years of the Grand And so, the first voices are already Coalition, there is - in a mirror image, so being raised that the candidate is not to speak - a desire for a more left-wing generating the traction that would programme in large parts of the SPD in be necessary to overtake the Greens order to distance themselves from the and thus underpin the claim to the unloved Grand Coalition. chancellorship.

Annalena Baerbock Annalena Baerbock is a political scientist The main point of attack of the political (The Greens) – with a Master's degree in "Public competitors is her lack of government International ". The former top experience: Annalena Baerbock has ‘the fresh face for athlete was a member of the executive never led a state or federal ministry so profound change‘ board of the European Greens from far. Accordingly, she is trying to present 2009 to 2012, she has been a member herself as a candidate of change and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen are putting of the German federal parliament her competitors as candidates of the a candidate for chancellor for since 2013 and has been party leader status quo. Tactically, however, it was a the first time. In contrast to the CDU / together with Robert Habeck since clever move to put a younger woman CSU, the Greens have agreed on these 2018. However, Baerbock is still a opposite the two older male candidates personnel almost silently. The Greens, comparatively unknown quantity for from the CDU/CSU and SPD. In this way, who used to be considered particularly large parts of the population. In the ARD she positions herself as a young, fresh quarrelsome and internally divided into DeutschlandTREND survey of May 2021, alternative. Her candidacy reflects both a realistic-political and a fundamental- almost one in four eligible voters said the generational and the emancipation political camp, have already appeared they did not know her or did not feel issue: after Angela Merkel, she is only united since the 2017 federal elections confident enough to judge her - about the second female candidate for the and have thus been very successful in twice as many as her competitors. chancellorship. the past elections on the state level, all things considered. The fact that the two party chairs Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock have decided the candidacy between themselves has been held against the otherwise grassroots-oriented Greens, especially by political competitors.

5 IV. Issues and priorities in the election campaign

Even though the Greens in particular are threatened with foreign and security policy attacks, none of the three parties is questioning the cornerstones of German foreign policy. Instead, the federal election campaign will mainly revolve around domestic issues: This concerns, on the one hand, the question of which priorities will be set for the post-Corona era (economy, digitalisation, health, education) and, on the other hand, what priority climate protection policy will have in the election campaign. In addition, the parties will each set their own programmatic priorities:

— The Union is the only relevant — The SPD focuses on its traditional — For the Greens, combating climate political force that has not yet theme of "social justice" under change is at the centre of their presented a draft programme for the guiding idea of "respect" and election campaign. They are getting the election campaign at the end of demands in its programme, among tailwind from a recent ruling by May. However, it can be assumed other things, a higher minimum Germany's highest court that that it will place conservative wage, more social housing, better obliges the legislature to anchor economic, budgetary and security care and better working conditions the demands of future generations policy positions in the foreground (e.g. a right to home office). more firmly in climate protection of its campaign. It will also try to law. The Greens want to initiate a score points against the SPD and phase of investment in the future the Greens with attacks on identity and thus create the entry into a politics (e.g. in relation to gender climate-neutral and sustainable language). economy.

— This puts them in clear — The right-wing Alternative for contradiction to the FDP, which has Germany (AfD) follows its EU- spoken out in favour of tax relief in and migration-critical tradition in its election manifesto. According its election manifesto. It calls for to Corona, the Liberals want to Germany to leave the EU and the "unleash" the economy and reduce Euro. In terms of energy policy, it bureaucracy. In addition, the party explicitly opposes the EU's Green wants to strengthen digitalisation Deal. It also calls for an end to what and rejects a softening of the debt it calls the "abuse of asylum". brake.

In line with the different programmatic emphases, a central conflict in the election campaign and presumably also in later coalition negotiations is likely to lie in the future fiscal policy orientation of the federal government. These disputes will have to be conducted in pandemic times against the background of an increased need for stability: The dominant feeling is that the society as a whole is facing difficult times economically, in terms of climate policy and geopolitically. Those who want to be successful in the election campaign will have to address the stability needs of a large part of the population on the one hand, but at the same time also make a credible promise of renewal and create a mood of optimism. The right mix will not be easy to dose. 6 V. Power options: Connectivity to possible coalitions

According to a political truism, The two parties' ideas are also far apart The SPD is thus in a similar position to mathematical majorities are not yet on budgetary policy and the debt brake. the CDU/CSU: apart from the unloved political majorities. Nevertheless, the This applies all the more to possible alliance with the conservatives, the only parties need at least one power option coalition negotiations involving the FDP. power option left is the "traffic light", that is perceived as realistic in order On the whole, however, the Union's i.e. a coalition with the Greens and the to be able to exploit their potential as candidate for chancellor, Armin Laschet, FDP. Despite major differences with the optimally as possible in the election. is considered to be open to form a SPD and the Greens on tax and budget Not having a power option has most black-green coalition for the first time at policy, the liberal FDP is deliberately probably a demobilising effect in the the federal level. keeping such an alliance - which long run. Accordingly, there is often talk currently governs Rhineland-Palatinate of the parties' ability to join possible Programmatically, the Greens have a - open. Unlike in the past, the Liberals coalitions. much greater overlap with the Social are looking for a power option beyond Democrats. However, all serious the CDU/CSU, even though they have Apart from the continuation of a polls suggest that such a majority greater programmatic overlaps with coalition with the SPD, which can be is highly unlikely. A third coalition the conservatives, especially in terms of considered rather unlikely due to its partner would therefore probably be economic and budgetary policy. If, after current lack of popularity and the necessary to guarantee a corresponding federal elections, there would be only change in the chancellorship, the parliamentary majority. With the a coalition between the CDU/CSU, the CDU/CSU currently has only one participation of the FDP would result in a Greens and the FDP on the one hand realistic power option: a coalition with so-called "traffic light coalition" (red- possible and an alliance of the Greens, the Greens or - if it is not enough for yellow-green), with the participation the SPD and the FDP on the other hand, that - a so-called Jamaica coalition of the Left (“Die Linke”) a red-red- the FDP could tip the scales as it has in of Union, Greens and FDP. In order to green coalition. The CDU/CSU and the past. keep the Greens as small as possible the FDP like to use such an alliance as a in such a constellation, the CDU/ projection screen for a slide to the left CSU has proclaimed the Greens as its in Germany in order to mobilise their main opponent for some time now own supporters. Nevertheless, such a and has rediscovered their core issue coalition seems very unlikely due to the of climate protection. Nevertheless, foreign and security policy stance of central conflicts with the Greens in the Left Party. Both the SPD and the coalition negotiations are likely to arise Greens demand a clear commitment in questions of climate protection, to NATO from it. This demand was transport policy and energy policy: in recently renewed by Robert Habeck addition to an earlier coal phase-out, as Green Party co-leader, whereupon the Greens are also calling for a halt to Left Party chair Janine Wissler gave the 2 project, among other a clear rejection to this request and things. accused NATO of a sabre-rattling and warmongering policy. 7 VI. Conclusion and outlook

After three of the last four legislative At present, the most likely scenario The political mood as measured in periods, the so-called Grand Coalition seems to be the formation of a the current polls shows a high degree is a discontinued model for the time government with the participation of the of volatility in the electorate. Should being - a continuation seems more Greens, who are currently most in line government satisfaction rise noticeably than unlikely. This is especially true since with the desires for renewal. Depending again over the summer due to the Angela Merkel is not running again as on who becomes the partner(s), the improvements in the Corona pandemic, the Union's candidate for chancellor. new federal government will send the CDU/CSU would most likely be Nevertheless, it is almost a given that out a more or less strong signal of the main beneficiary. Nevertheless, one of the two current coalition partners "carry on like before" or a message of unforeseeable events can also trigger - CDU/CSU or SPD - will also departure. Should the CDU/CSU, led a last-minute swing in the volatile be involved in the next government. by Armin Laschet, once again become political mood. This was the case in the Such a "dosed change of power" the strongest force and form a black- immediate aftermath of the Fukushima has a long tradition in Germany and green alliance, the political guidelines reactor disaster in 2011, or even before corresponds to the ambivalent mood of the Merkel era are more likely to the 2002 federal election, when the Iraq between the widespread desire for be continued beyond climate policy. war and a flood disaster on the Oder renewal and the need for continuity This applies in particular to a Jamaica River carried then-Chancellor Gerhard and stability. coalition including the FDP. By contrast, Schröder and his red-green coalition into a federal government led for the first a second term in office. time by the Greens would tend to send out a message of "departure". This also Not least because of the coronavirus applies to a traffic light coalition led by pandemic, societies in Germany and the SPD and even more so to a - very Europe are facing new main challenges unlikely - red-red-green alliance. for the decade lying ahead. In this respect, looking back is less helpful than in previous years: The outcome of the federal election in September is completely open. The election campaign has only just begun.

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