Ford Trails Carter and Humphrey

The Harris Survey FORD TRAILS CARTER AND HUMPHREY

For Release: May 3, 1976 By Louis Harris b In the latest Harris Survey, conducted just before the Pennsylvania primary, President Ford trailed both former Gov. Jimmy Carter and Plinn. Sen. Hubert Humphrey in pairings for the 1Jovember election. 'Carter led Nr. Ford by a 47-43% margin, and Fumphrey headed the President by a narrow 47-462 edge.

For Carter, these latest results represent a major gain from his March showing in the Harris Survey when he trailed the President by 49-42%. For Hunphrey, his one-point edge reflects no change from his 48-47% margin in March. Thus, Carter has been gaining momentum as he rolled up his impressive showing in the primary contests.

In a third pairlng, President Ford holds a 48-38% lead over Gov. Jerry Brown of California, who has now announced that he will campaign for the Democratic nomination outside his home state. Brown's showing is quite impressive in view of the fact that he is still unknown to 472 of the electorate. To be sure, he is uni- formly weaker against the President than Carter or Humphrey. Rut in the Vest, where he is best known, he holds a clear 53-40% lead. This is particularly impressive, for Carter loses that region to President Ford by 50-392 and Humphrey trails there by 51-412. Whether Brown can advance his national standing when he campaigns in the rest of the country remains to be seen.

The Carter and Humphrey patterns are different, indicating that in leaking their ultimate choice, the Democrats will have to decide what kind of election they want to run. Carter now holds a convincing 55-38% lead over the President in the South and a closer 48-432 advantage in the Midwest. But he does no better than a 44-44% standoff in the East, and he loses the Vest by 50-39X. Humphrey wins the East easily by 53-391, ends up dead even at 47-47% in the Midwest, but runs behind in the South by 49-43% and in the West by 51-41%.

Carter holds a slim 46-45X lead among white voters and adds to his total by winning the support of blacks by 59-281. Humphrey loses the white vote by 49-44%. but racks up a massive 72-17% margin among blacks to eke out his lead over President Ford.

Carter holds the President down to a 53-40% lead among conservatives, wins the middle-of-the-road vote by 46-45%. and gains his winning margin by taking the liberal vote by 59-352. Humphrey loses the conservative vote by 61-35% and the middle-of-the-road vote by 49-451, but sweeps the liberal vote by 68-29%.

Carter wins the Catholic vote by a narrow 46-42% and the Jewish vote by 49-31%. but loses the white Protestant vote to the President by 49-45%. By contrast, Humphrey loses the WASP vote by a wider 58-37%. but wins the vote of Catholics by 52-39% and that of Jews by an overwhelming 76-17%.

It is apparent that Carter appeals much more to conservatives, independents, white Protestants and most of all to southerners than Humphrey does. On the other hand, the Minnesota senator depends on more traditional Democratic majorities among blacks, other minorities, liberals and lower income voters.

Carter is putting together a totally new coalition for the Democrats in modern times, while Humphrey is relying on the old New Deal coalition.

TABLES

Between April 9 and 15, the Harris Survey asked a cross section of 1,072 registered and likely voters: "Suppose for President next November, it were between Gerald Ford for the Republicans and Jimmy Carter for the Democrats. If you had to make up your mind right now, would you vote for Ford the Republican or for Carter the Democrat?" FORD VS. CARTER TREND --Ford Carter NotSure X X X April 1976 43 47 10 March 49 42 9 February 50 42 8 January 49 36 15

The cross section was also asked: "Suppose for President in November it were between Gerald Ford for the Republicans and Hubert Humphrey for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, would you vote for Ford the Republican or for Humphrey the Democrat?"

FORD VS . WUMPHREY TREND -Ford Humphrey Not Sure X X X April 1976 March February January Flnall.y, the IIarris Survey asked: "Suppose for President next November it were between Gerald Ford for the Republicans and Governor Jerry Brown for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, would you vote for Ford the Republican or for Rrocm the Democrat?"

FORD VS. BROWN Total Voters X Ford 4 8 Brown 38 Not Sure 14