Humphrey, Carter Lead in Democratic Pairings

The Harris Survey- HUMPHREY, CARTER LEAD IN DEMOCRATIC PA IR INGS orRelease:, April 1, 1976 By Louis Harris

In a special, nationwide poll conducted among eligible Democratic and independent voters, Sen. Hubert Humphrey emerges as the preferred choice for the 1)emocratic presidential nomination, with former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter a clear second.

This latest Harris Survey among 1,079 eligible Democratic and independent voters is the first to measure the real strengths of the four leading contenders for the nomination since it pits each candidate against every other in head-to-head contests.

Here is hcw Humphrey established his leading position: --In the key contest, which turns out to be the closest one, Humphrey runs ahead of Carter by a 48-432 margin. Among just Democrats, the ?finnesotan leads by 53-402. Carter is ahead among independent voters by 49-40%. --Humphrey leads Washington Sen. Aenry Jackson among Democrats and independents by 51-37%. Among Denocrats alone, the Humphrey margin is 55-344, but with independents he and Jackson finish in a 43-43% tie. -Humphrey runs well ahead of Arizona Rep. Morris Udall by a 55-312 margin. --Alabama Gov. George Wallace loses to Humphrey by a lopsided 65-2616.

Carter emerges as a formidable nationwide rival to Humphrey by scoring convincing trial heat wins against the remaining three leading candidates tested: --He wins over Jackson by 49-34% nationwide among Democrats and independents. Jackson holds a 2-point edge over Carter in the East, but trails by 52-35% in the Hidwest, 58-242 in the South and 45-36% in the West. Jackson defeats Carter among Jewish voters by 61-252. But Carter runs ahead of Jackson among union members by 48-352, among blacks by 47-252, among conservatives by 52-342 and among liberals by 46-41%. --Carter wins handily over Udall by 56-252. --In a head-to-head contest, Carter also overwhelms Wallace nationwide by 68-231. Last November, before the campaign began,Carter led Wallace by a much narrower 43-352. Against Wallace, Carter wins every region of the country, including the South, which he carries by 55-37%. In the deep South, Wallace wins handily by 58-32%, but Carter takes the border states by a more convincing 70-231.

Jackson finishes in third place by winning handily over Udall and Wallace, although he loses to both Qmphrey and Carter: L --Jackson beats Udall by 50-294. --He wins over tiallace by 63-282, although in this contest he just manages to win the South by 45-442 and loses the deep South by 65-272 to the Alabama governor.

Udall loses to Humphrey, Carter and Jackson, but defeats Wallace by a decisive 56-33%. Udall carries every region against Wallace except the South, where he loses by 52-371.

The big loser from this comprehensive test is Wallace. Outside the deep South, heis simply no longer a viable candidate. In the five 'tates of the deep South, Wallace defeats all of his other four Democratic opponents. But in the border states, he sijps badly, and in the North he is out of contention.

The results of the Humphrey-Carter contest are revealing: --Carter loses the East, Midwest and West to Humphrey, but decisively wins his home region of the South by 55-34%. --Humphrey wins the big city, suburban and snall town vote, but loses the rural vote to Carter by 51-41%. --The Minnesota senator rolls up impressive leads among Democrats and independents 30 and over, but loses the vote of young people to Carter by 50-391. --Humphrey defeats the former Georgia governor convincingly among people who never went to college, but just manages to eke out a 48-37X edge among the college educated. --Among blacks, Humphrey overwhelms Carter by 68-26% and among Jews by 77-211. But among whites, Carter ties him at 46-46%, and among white Protestants, the Georgian wins by a clear 52-401. Among Catholics, Humpllrey wins by a narrow 47-432. --Among liberals, Humphrey emerges on top by 62-342, and among middle-of-the-road voters, he wins by 51-402. Although Carter takes the votes of conservatives, mainly in the South, by 56-383, it would be unfair to label Carter the conservative candidate. His lead among these voters is more a reflection of Humphrey's weakness than his own strength. Indeed, Humphrey also loses the conservatives to Jackson by 49-412.

What we have,then, as the primary season moves into high gear, is Humphrey leading the Democratic pack and Carter beginning to emerge as a strong second with a base among Southerners, the young, the college educated and independents, concentrated mainly among whites.

TABLES b From March 13 to 22, the Harris Survey asked the national cross section of likely voters: "Suppose for the Democratic nomination for President it came down to a choice between Sen. Hubert Humphrey and former Gov. Jimmy Carter. If you had to choose, would you prefer Humphrey or Carter?" TABLE (cont'd)

MIMPHREY VS. CARTER Carter Not Sure Total Democrats and independe- X X

Nat ionvide

East Midwest South West Deep South Border States

Cities Suburbs Towns Rural

18-29 30-49 50 and over

8th grade or lees High school College

Union members

Men Women

Blacks Whi tee

Conservative Middle of the road Liberal

Democrats Independents

Catholics White Protestants Jews