Muskie Pulls up Even with Nixon

Tlie Harris Survey

For Release: Monday, January 17, 1972

MUSKIE PULLS . UP EVEN WITH NIXON

By Louis Harris

Sen. Edmund Muskie of Maine has pulled even in a January trial heat against President Nixon, 42-42 percent, with Gov. George Wallace at 11 percent. Last November, Muskie trailed the incumbent by four points, 43 to 39 percent. In the same poll, among a national cross section of 1,699 likely voters, President Nixon holds a 46-37 percent lead over Sen. Hubert Humphrey, his opponent in 1968, with Wallace at 12 percent as an independent candidate. This nine-point spread between Nixon and Humphrey is identical to that recorded in the November Harris Survey. Thus, after losing a temporary lead last summer, Sen. Muskie has picked up ground on President Nixon, while Sen. Humphrey, who officially declared his candidacy last week, has not. Muskie1s recent gains have been recorded chiefly among young voters under 30 years of age and voters with incomes of $15,000 a year or over. At this point, roughly 11 months before the election, the young and the affluent could be pivotal in determining the out- come. Regionally, Ihskie has gained in the Middle West and has drawn within a point of the President there. Here is the trend in the Muskie-Nixon-Wallace trial heats, conducted regularly by the Harris Survey over the past three years and again between December 28 and January 4,.in answer to these questions: "Suppose the 1972 election for President were being held today and you had to choose right now --- would you vote for Richard Nixon t;e Republican, Sen..Edmund Muskie :he Democrat, or George Wallace the Independent? and (1f 'NOT SURE1) Well, if you had to say, would xou lean toward Nixon the Republican, Muskie the Democrat, or Wallace the Independent? TREND IN NIXON-MUSKIE-WAUACE RACE Nixon Muskie Wallace Not Sure 7-77 January, 1972 42 42 11 5 November, 1971 43 39 11 7 September 47 35 11 7 August 4 1 12 4 June $2 4 2 13 5 May 4 0 4 2 11 7 April 39 11 3 February 39 3 12 January 40 11 65 November, 1970 40 $6' 10 4 September 43 43 10 4 May 42 38 12 8 April 47 36 10 7 February 4 9 35 11 5 November, 1969 4 9 35 11 5 October 51 35 9 5 May 51 35 11 3 These latest results mark a steady comeback for Sen. Muskie, a declared candidate now for the nomination. He slipped 12 points behind Mr. Nixon last September, but has closed the gap in each poll taken since. Now he has once again drawn even. Decisive shifts have taken place in the Nixon-Muskie standing by age and income since the last Harris Survey in November:

NIXON-MUSKIE-WALLACE RACE BY KEY GROUPS Nixon Muskie Wallace Not Sure ST-FT -Na t 1 onwide January, 1972 November. 1971

November 21-29 fanuary November 30-49 January November 50 and over Janua rv By Income Under $5000 January 42 43 . 11 4 November 3'9 36 15 10 $5000- 9999 January

- ~ovember 45 40 10 5 1 0 45 4 2 6 November 53 37 2 4 Basically, the electorate over 30 has not undergone much shift since November. But the under-30 age group has moved rather dramatically away from President Nixon and over to Sen. ESuskie. Similarly, by income, the under-$15,000 groups have moved only nldrginally, but the highest income group has shifted from giving the President a 53-37 percent edge in November to only a narrow three-point lead today. Both the young and the affluent have shown tendencies over the past year to be among the most volatile and independent voting segments of the electorate as 1972 approaches. They are also the fastest growing parts of the electorate, with the under-30 vote moving from 19 to 24 percent of the total likely to turn aut,based on past 'performance, and with the $15,000 and over group moving from 11 to 19 percent of the electorate. Here is the trend of the Nixon-Humphrey-Wallace race: NIXON-HUMPHREY-WALLACE TREND Nixon Humphre 'Wallace Not Sure January, 1972 7712 5 November 45 36 12 7 September 36 12 7 May :t . 39 10 April 42 41 13 Z November, 1970 . 46 39 -11 4 April 36 11 3 November, 1969 2: 37 12 3 At no oint has Humphrey been ahead of Mr. Nixon in trial heats since losing the election of 1568 The difference between the Muskie and Humphrey shalngs among the same voters surveyei can be found in the results among independents, the highest income voters, and those 21-29 years of age. While Muskie wins the independents by 42-40 percent, Humphrey loses them 28-49 percent. Muskie wins the 21-29 year old vote by a decisive 54-30 percent, but Humphrey only squeaks by with a 42-39 percent edge. Muskie trails the President by a slim 42-45 per- over group, but Humphrey is far behind among the same affluent