Democrats Still Disenchanted with Carter As Their Nominee} Despite Press Conference

Home , Edmund Muskie, Lloyd Bentsen, Robert Byrd, Walter Mondale

- -- ABC News-Harris Survey

For Release; Sunday AM, August lOth, 1980 (BONUS COLUMN) Vol. II No. 98 ISSN 0163-4846 DEMOCRATS STILL DISENCHANTED WITH CARTER AS THEIR NOMINEE} DESPITE PRESS CONFERENCE

By Louis Harris

Contrary to prevailing media comment, President Carter's Monday night press conference on the Billy Carter affair not only failed to give a spark to his faltering campaign, but in many ways deepened the foreboding sense of doom that rank and file Democratic voters across the nation feel about his candidacy.

Before the Monday night press conference, when Democratic likely voters were asked to name their first choice for the presidential nomination, only 35 percent singled out Jimmy Carter; another 9 percent named him as their second choice. By the end of this past week, when the same question was repeated, only 34 percent preferred Carter as their first choice, according to the latest ABC News - Harris Survey of 831 Democratic likely voters nationwide.

At best, it must be concluded that after the fireworks of the Billy Carter press conference and reports of a buoyed up White House and claims of a firming up of Carter delegates, the Democratic voters back home indicate there really has been no uplift at all.

A kind of bottom line to the unfolding events is the fact that three weeks ago, 14 percent of all Democratic voters said they felt less like voting for Jimmy Carter as a result of the Billy Carter affair. By last weekend the number who felt less like voting for Carter had jumped to 2B percent. After his press conference, the number of Democrats who felt less like casting their ballots for Carter rose to 32 percent.

In addition, when all voters were asked after the press conference to rate the overall Carter performance in office, a maSSlve 75-23 percent gave him negative marks. This is only marginally better than his all-time low of 77-22 percent negative three weeks ago. On the eve of the Democratic convention, President Carter is still rated more poorly by the electorate than any other occupant of the White House in recent political history.

Because of the way these latest ABC News - Harris Survey questions were asked, obtaining not only first but also second choice preferences, it is possible to come up with a number of combinations of candidates from which the convention delegates might choose:

--With Carter out of the race, Senator Edward M. Rennedy takes over the lead with 32 percent of the vote, but Secretary of State Edmund $. Muskie is close behind at 26 percent, followed by Vice President Walter Hondale at 14 percent. The rest of the possible nominees are well behind these top three.

--With both Carter and Kennedy out of the race, Husxie takes over a clear lead with 39 percent, followed by Mondale at 19 percent, ~ith Senator Henry Jackson at 11 percent, and Senator Robert Byrd at 7 percent.

--In a three-way contest between Carter, Kennedy and Muskie, Carter finishes ahead with 39 percent, Kennedy with 31 percent, and Muskie at 25 percent. However, this Carter lead is fashioned entirely from a massive edge in the South, where he receives 50 percent of the vote, to Muskie's 22 percent, and Kennedy's 21 percent. Outside the South, Kennedy takes the lead with 36 percent, followed by Carter at 33 percent, and Muskie with 27 percent.

By any measure, the via}.le third man alte~native in this equation is Muskie. Although he has disavowed that he wants the nomination, he might not turn down a draft if, on a third ballot at the convention, neither Carter nor Kennedy could put together a majority. It is ironic that Muskie, who could not win the Democratic nomination when he Bought it, might now be viewed as a compromise choice if the two front-runners can't make it.

(over) August lL_ .• , 1980

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The case for the Democrats nominating Carter can be found in his having more Democratic voters for him than any other candidate on a nationwide basis. But his weakness is the fact that in the one area where he is strongest--the South--he is nonetheless trailing Ronald Reagan by 22 points. Furthermore, he is not the preferred choice, nor does he run well, in the North, especially in the eight biggest industrial states of California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Combined, these eight states account for 216 of the 269 electoral votes needed to win the election. In addition, the Carter candidacy almost ensures that Reagan's and John Anderson's No.1 issue will be the President himself and his record in office. Even after his dramatic press conference last Monday, his job rating is a poor 75-23 percent negative.

--If the DemocratS switched to Kennedy, who has been making late gains in recent weeks. his strength is precisely where the harvest is richest in electoral votes, in the eight big states of the Noreh, where he is preferred over Carter among Democrats by a 55-40 percent margin. Kennedy could bring out the union vote, the blacks, Jews, Catholics, and big-city voters who count so much in the big states. If he could also win most of the East, he could come close to winning in November. In all probability, he would also be able to run a direct race against Reagan, since Anderson could well drop out if Kennedy were nominated. Kennedy's weakness is that he is viewed as an all-out liberal at a time when the country has moved away from federal solutions to economic problems. In addition, he is a controversial figure in his own right.

--In the case of Muskie, his strengths would parallel Kennedy's to a degree in the big Northern states, but he would run better than either Carter or Kennedy among the college-educated and professional groups, he could unite many elements in the Democratic Party, and he would be far less controversial than either Carter or Kennedy. His weakness is that he has not been campaigning for the job and his current campaign style is largely untested.

underlying the Democratic convention is a deep sense of gloom, the possibility of losing control of both houses of Congress, and the danger of suffering critical losses in state legislatures, which will redistrict the congressional district lines for the next decade. With President Carter, the Democrats are losing on the key economic issue.

This is why so many Democratic voters now want to open up the convention to give Kennedy a chance to overtake Carter. Then, if neither the President nor the Senator make it, Democrats can turn to Muskie as the clear alternative.

TAB L E S

Between August 1st and 3rd, as well as on August 5th and 6th, the ABC News- Harris Survey asked a cross section of 831 Democratic likely voters nationwide by telephone:

"Let me read you a list of candidates who might be nominated if there is an open Democratic convention. Tell me, which candidate would be your first choice for the Democratic nomination for president in 19807"

"If (FIRST CHOICE) were out of the running, who would be your second choice for the Democratic presidential nomination?"

FIRST AND SECOND CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

FIRST CHOICE SECOND CHOICE Aug. 1-3 Aug_ 5-6 Aug. 1-) Aug. 5-6 \ % , %

Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas 1 1 2 1 Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia 3 3 4 3 Governor Hugh Carey of New York * * 2 2 President Jimmy Carter 35 34 9 8 Senator Henry JacKson of Washington 3 a a 10 Senator Edward Kennedy 25 25 13 15 Vice President Walter Mondale 7 7 18 16 Secretary of State Edmund Muskie 18 15 24 24 Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York * 2 3 2 Representative Morris Udall of Arizona 4 2 5 5 None 1 1 5 6 Not sure 3 2 7 8

CON TIN U E D ABC NEWS - HARRIS SURVEY August 10th, 1980

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FIRST CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION WITH CARTER OUT OF RACE

Democratic voters nationwide %

Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas 2 Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia 5 Governor Hugh Carey of New York 1 Senator Henry Jackson of Washington 6 Senator Edward Kennedy 32 Vice President Walter Mondale 14 Secretary of State Edmund Muskie 26 Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York 1 Representative Morris Udall of Arizona 5

None 3

Not sure 5

FIRST CHOICE FOR DEMOCRAT:IC NOMINATION WITH CARTER AND KENNEDY OUT OF RACE

Democratic voters nationwide %

Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas 2 Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia 7 Governor Hugh Carey of New York 1 Senator Henry Jackson of Washington 11 Vice President Walter Mondale 19 Secretary of State Edmund Muskie 39 Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York 2 Representative Morris Udall of Arizona 6 None 5 Not sure 8

CARTER, KENNEDY OR MUSKIE AS FIRST CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Democratic voters Democratic voters nationwide outside the South %

President Jimmy Carter 39 33

Senator Edward Kennedy 31 36

Secretary of State Edmund Muskie 25 27

None 1 2

Not sure 4 2

CON TIN U E 0 ABC NEWS - HARRIS SURVEY August 10th, 1980

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CARTER OR KENNEDY AS FIRST CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION DEMOCRATIC VOTERS NATIONWIDE Agree Disagree Not sure % % %

Total nationwide 51 41 8

East 40 52 8 Midwest 45 48 7 South 63 27 10 West 45 47 8

Outside South 43 49 8

Cities 43 48 9 Suburbs 42 53 5 Towns 55 34 11 Rural 68 23 9

18-29 'IS 49 6 30-49 47 46 7 50-64 55 39 6 65 &. over 62 21 17

8th grade 56 28 16 High school 52 40 8 College 46 46 8

Men 53 41 6 Women 48 42 10

White 53 37 10 Black 42 52 6

White Protestant 62 28 10 White Catholic 45 47 8 Jewish 37 56 7

Union member 45 48 7

Conservative 56 33 11 Middle of the road 51 41 B Liberal 44 53 3

10 big states 45 48 7 8 big northern states 40 55 5

"All in all, does the Billy Carter affair make you feel less like voting for Jimmy Carter, more like voting for him, or doesn't. it make any difference to you?"

CARTER VOTE BASED ON BILLY CARTER AFFAIR DEMOCRATIC LIKELY VOTERS Aug. 5-6 Aug. 1-3 July 18-21 % % %

Feel less like voting 32 28 14 Feel more like voting 5 5 2 No difference 61 64 80 Not sure 2 3 4

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