After New Hampshire, Mondale Shows Uneasy

The Harris Survey

For Release: Monday AM, Harch 5th, 1984 1984 *20 ISSN 0273-1037

AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE~ MONDALE SHOWS UNEASY LEAD OVER HART

By Louis Harris

As a result of his big win in New Hampshire, Senator Gary Hart has now shot up from 4 percent to 27 percent as the choice candidate of likely Democratic voters nation wide. Former Vice President Walter Mondale has dropped from 49 percent in mid-February to 37 percent now as the choice among Democratic voters. While Mondale is still leading Hart by 37-27 percent, the Colorado senator clearly has a lost of momentum right now, according to the latest Harris Survey conducted by telephone between March 1st and 3rd among 546 likely Democratic voters.

Of the other three Democratic aspirants remaining in the race, Senator John Glenn is the choice candidate of 12 percent of the cross section, the Reverend Jesse Jackson 10 percent and former Senator George McGovern 6 percent. Glenn is stronger in the Midwest, Jackson in the South and McGovern in the East.

Mondale leads Hart by 39-21 percent in the South, by 38-29 percent in the Eas~ and by 37-28 percent ~nthe Midwest; he is tied with Hart 32-32 percent in the West. On Tuesday, March 13th, the main primary tests are in Georgia, Alabama and Florida in the South, and in Massachusetts and Rhode Island in New England. These latest survey results suggest Mondale may be able to win in the South, although he might be hard-pressed to beat Hart in New England. They also suggest that as the primaries move west durin~ the course of the election season, Hart can be expected to pick up in strength.

Other key groups among whom Hart is strongest include suburban voters, those in the 30-49 age category, the college educated, whites, professionals, higher income people, those who voted for Reagan in 1980, political moderates and White Catholics. Mondale is strongest among those who live in the big cities, blacks, Hispanics, lower income voters, blue collar workers and union members. The Mondale base is the kind that needs to be brought out to vote on primary day, while the Hart voters tend to be drawn from those who are most likely to come 01lt without organizational help.

Also going for Hart is the fact that in pairings against Ronald Reagan conducted by telephone between March 1st and 3rd among 1,227 likely voters nationwide, the Colorado Senator runs a closer race than the former Vice President. Reagan is running ahead of Mondale by 55-41 percent, while Hart trails the President by a closer 53-43 percent. Clearly, the President would be favored at this time to beat either of the top two Democratic choices.

There are some significant differences, however, in the kind of appeal that Hart and Mondale have among likely voters who will cast their ballots in November:

--On a regional basis, Hart leads Reagan in the East by 51-45 percent, while Mondale trails the President by 52-44 percent. In the other regions they both de about the same against President Reagan. Thus, almost all of Hart's strength comes from the one region of the country where he has scored a significant victory.

--Hart does much better than Mondale against Reagan among college graduates, professional people, political independents, moderates and union members. Consistently, beginning with his showing in New Hampshire, Hart obviously has real appeal among the better educated and more affluent voters. The big surprise, however, is among union members, where Hart leads Reagan by 52-45 percent, while Mondale trails Reagan by 49-48 percent. Mondale, of course, was named by organized labor as its candidate last fall, and these results call into question big labor's ability to deliver its rank aDc file for Mondale.

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY March 5th, 1984

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--Mondale does better than Hart among blacks, those who voted for Jimmy Carter in 1980, unskilled labor, Democrats and Jewish voters. Mondale does slightly better with the traditional Democratic "gut" vote, but does poorer with the independent, more affluent swing voters.

Overall, these results still give Mondale a lead over Hart, but it must be viewed as an uneasy margin, to say the least. He obviously still has not convinced his fellow Democrats that he can win the fall election, and he has been the one to lose the massive lead he possessed before and just after the Iowa caucuses, which he swept.

The best Mondale can hope for are victories in the South on r~rch 13th, and perhaps a split in the two New England states. In turn, this will at least give Mondale some important delegates and also might reverse the slide that set in for him in New Hampshire. For Hart, a victory in one state on "super Tuesday" seems to be necessary to maintain his momentum.

The other uncertainty is just how well Hart will wear as people get to know him better. The answer on both Mondale and Hart is likely to happen sooner rather than later, considering the flood of delegates who will be chosen during the next 30 days.

TAB L E S

Between March 1st and 3rd, the Harris Survey asked 546 likely Democratic voters nationwide by telephone:

"Let me read you a list of Democrats who are running for the Democratic nomination for president this year. If you had to choose right now, which one of these candidates would be your first choice for the Democratic nomination for president in 1984?"

"Suppose that candidate were out of the running -- which one from the list would be your second ch~ice?"

PREFERENCE FOR DEMOCRATIC NO~lINATION

Fromer Vice President Walter Mondale 37

Senator Gary Hart of Colorado 27

Senatur John Glenn of Ohio 12

Jesse Jackson, black civil rights leader 10

Former Senator George McGovern 6

None/not sure 8

(continued) THE HARRIS SURVEY March 5th, 1984

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Between March 1st and 3rd, the Harris Survey also asked 1,227 likely voters nationwide by telephone:

"Now suppose in the November election it is between Ronald Reagan for the Republicans and Walter Mondale for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, would you vote for Reagan or for Mondale?"

REAGAN VS. MONDALE

Reagan Mondale Not sure % % %

TOTAL V-:JTERS 55 41 4

East 52 44 4 Hidwest 55 41 4 South 57 43 West 59 37 4

Cities 47 50 3 Suburbs 60 35 5 Town/Rural 58 40 2

Age 18-29 55 42 3 30-49 56 42 2 50-64 63 33 4 65 & over 46 48 £

8th grade 35 58 7 High school 52 45 3 Some college 62 36 2 College graduate 58 38 4

Men 63 34 3 Women 49 47 4

White 62 34 4 Black 10 87 3 Hispanic 35 60 5

$75,500 or less 38 58 4 $7,501-$15,000 44 54 2 $15,001-$25,000 56 41 3 $25,001-$35,000 61 37 2 $35,001-$50,000 70 28 2 $50,001 & over 68 28 4

Professional 57 39 4 Executive 66 33 1 Proprietor 72 26 2 Skilled labor 57 40 3 Unskilled labor 45 53 2 White collar 59 40 1

Union member 49 48 3

Voted Reagan in 1980 85 14 1 Voted Carter in 1980 19 78 3

Republican 92 7 1 Democrat 23 75 2 Independent 67 29 4

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY March 5th, 1984

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REAGAN VS. MONDALE (CaNT.)

Reagan Mondale Not sure % % %

Conservative 68 30 2 Middle of the road 60 37 3 Liberal 28 69 3

White Protestant 67 30 3 White Catholic 60 38 2 Jewish 33 61 6

"And suppose in November it is between Reagan forthe Republicans and Senator Gary Hart for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, would you vote for Reagan or for Hart?"

REAGAN VS. HART

Reagan Hart Not sure --% % %

TOTAL VOTERS 53 43 4

East 45 51 4 Midwest 55 40 5 South 57 40 3 West 58 38 4

Cities 48 49 3 Suburbs 57 38 5 Town/Rural 54 42 4

Age 18-29 58 40 2 30-49 53 44 3 50-64 58 37 5 65 & over 42 51 7

8th grade 33 58 9 High school 52 45 3 Some college 61 34 5 College graduate 55 42 3

Men 59 38 3 Women 49 47 4

White 58 38 4 Black 22 75 3 Hispanic 33 60 7

$7,500 or less 36 59 5 $7,501-$15,000 46 52 2 $15,001-$25,000 52 45 3 $25,001-35,000 60 38 2 $35,001-$50,000 61 35 4 $50,001 & over 68 29 3

Professional 53 44 3 Executive 61 36 3 Proprietor 68 29 3 Skilled labor 58 39 3 Unskilled labor 50 48 2 White collar 57 40 3 no response

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REAGAN VS. HART (CO~T.)

Reagan Hart Not sure % -%- %

Union member 45 52 3

Voted Reagan in 1980 7B 20 2 Voted Carter in 1980 22 74 4

Republican 90 9 1 Democrat 25 73 2 Independent 58 35 7

Conservative 67 31 2 Middle of the road 56 41 3 Liberal 24 71 5

White Protestant 64 33 4 White Catholic 54 43 3 Jewish 34 58 8

METHODOLOGY

This Harris Survey was conducted by telephone with a representative cross section of likely voters 18 and over at 1,227 different sampling points within the United States. Figures for age, sex and race were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In a sample of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results are within plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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