The Harris Survey

For Release: Thursday ~~, June 21st, 1984 1984 #52 ISSN 0273-1037

MONDALE'S BEST CHOICES FOR VP -- HART OR AWOMAN By Louis Harris

A high priority for Walter Mondale is to select a running mate who can attract votes next November, especially since he is currently trailing President Reagan by 56-41 percent in the latest Harris Survey.

Five prominently mentioned Democrats were tested to see who would help or hurt Mondale in his race agalnst the Republican ticket of Reagan and Bush. The latest Harris Survey, taken by telephone between June 7th and 11th among a cross section of 1,251 voters nationwide, found that:

--If Mondale's chief rival for the Democratic nomination, Senator Gary Hart of Colorado, were selected for vice president, a Mondale-Hart ticket would trail Reagan-Bush by an eight point margin of 53-45 percent. This is half the 15 point margin by which Mondale is now behind Reagan on his own, so Hart could be expected to cut the Republican lead in half -- a significant addition.

--When Mondale is paired with "a qualified woman, such as Representative Geraldine Ferraro of New York or Representative Pat Schroeder of Colorado" as a running mate, the Democratic ticket runs behind Reagan-Bush by 54-44 percent, a 10 point margin. Thus, a female vice presidential candidate would add a full five points to the Demo­ cratic column, close behind the seven points that Hart adds to Mondale's showing.

--A much-discussed Mondale ticket with Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas in the second spot comes up with no better than a 58-40 percent short-end showing against the GOP tandem of Reagan and Bush. Apart from the fact that Bentsen is well regarded as an experienced and competent senator, his chief appeal is that he could bring the state of Texas into the Democratic column, much as was the case with Lyndon Johnson in 1960 when he ran with John F. Kennedy. While the Harris Survey is unable to break out Texas polling results separately, in the South as a whole, Mondale trails Reagan by 59-38 percent. With Bentsen as his running mate, Mondale's showing in the South hardly changes, and he ends up behind Reagan and Bush by 59-39 percent. George Bush also comes from Texas and presumably helps strengthen Ronald Reagan in that pivotal state.

--Yet another prominently mentioned possible running mate for Mondale is New York Governor Mario Cuomo, believed by many to be a comer in the Democratic Party who might also help bring in Italian Catholic voters. Yet, with Cuomo as his running mate, Mondale finishes behind Reagan by 58-40 percent, worse than his 56-41 percent short-end showing by himself. Mondale loses the East to Reagan by 53-43 percent when running by himself. When coupled with Cuomo, Mondale still loses the East by a slightly closer 52-45 percent. Among white Catholics, Mondale trails Reagan by 53-44 percent, while with Cuomo as his running mate, he loses the white Catholic vote by an identical margln. Cuomo does not seem to be a great help to Mondale.

--Finally, Lee Iacocca, chairman of Chrysler Corporation, was tested as Mondale's running mate. During the primaries, Mondale emphasized his own role in the bail-out of Chrysler when he was vice president, and used it as an example of what he would do if elected president. If he were to choose Iacocca as his vice presidential nominee, Mondale might dramatize the successful federal intervention in the Chrysler case and pick up the votes of people who are pro-business. However, Iacocca not only fails to add support to the Mondale candidacy, but in fact causes Mondale to lose support. A Mondale-Iacocca ticket trails Reagan-Bush by 59-37 percent. Iacocca might well have

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY June 21st, 1984

-2­ been hurt by the fact that, a few months ago, he was widely identified, along with other top business and auto industry executives, as receiving sizable increases in compensation.

Thus. on the basis of adding votes to the Democratic line, it would seem that ~10ndale's choice comes down to either Gary Hart or a qualified woman. Hart would be most helpful by his appeal to groups among whomMondale has shown real weaknesses: young people, the baby boom generation, white collar voters, women, and politcal moderates. For example, among voters under 30, Mondale by himself runs behind Reagan by 52-45 percent, but with Hart on the ticket, the vote reverses itself and goes by 52-48 percent into the Democratic column. Similarly, among women, Mondale trails Reagan by 50-47 percent when running by himself, but with Hart as the candidate for vice president, !10ndale-Hart wins the women's vote byS2-46 percent.

If Mondale chooses a qualified woman as his running mate, he would also be capable of turning a loss among women into a victory, would be helped in the East and Midwest, and would do better among political moderates, white Catholics, and younger voters.

TAB L E S

Between June 7th and 11th, the Harris Survey asked a cross section of 1,251 1 i k e Ly v o t e cs nationwide by telephone:

":'0'4, let me ask you ano t ho r set of choices for "lovember. Suppose for the Repu~llCaGS, j' is Reagan for president ~lld George Bush again for vice president. And suppose for the iemocrats, it is Mondale for president and Hart for vice president. If you had to '~''005e, ',-!QuId you vo t.e for Reagan and Bush, the Republicans, or for Mondale and Hart, r.he D"mn,_cats?"

REAGA'j-BC,,!: VS. ivlONDALE-HART

Reagan Mondale Not -Bush -Hart Sure -----%-. % -%­

'l'UT1\L S .3 45 2

East SO 47 3 ;·hdwest 48 50 2 S'.J1...i.th 56 44 * ~~2S t: 59 39 2

(~ ~~ 0; ) -:1'::: 16 - 29 ~"- * 30-49 54 45 1 S0-64 57 41 2 65 I:. ever. S} 43 6

rl.,:~n S9 39 2 l"':0me.n 46 52 2

1'")ro ress~o,v\l 56 43 1 £xecutlve 63 .j / ~} r o p r i e !~.o r 68 32 ;k 111eo labur Sl 48 1 Unskilled labor: 36 63 1 ;;hi t.e colla- 52 4E 2

Cori s e r vet i ve 69 30 1 '1J.001e of t.i «> toad 51 -if .3 Libet'a1 23 77

lih:cte Protesta ~ ( 64 34 2 White Catholic 47 51 2 .Tew ~ ,;; ;', 3:" t· • 3

(con t i n ue d ) THE HARRIS SURVEY June 21st, 1984

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"Now suppose it is Reagan and Bush for the Republicans against a Democratic ticket of Mondale for president and a more conservative Democrat, such as Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, for vice president. If you had to choose, would you vote for Reagan and Bush, the Republicans, or for Mondale and Bentsen, the Democrats?"

REAGAN-BUSH VS. MONDALE-BENTSEN

Reagan Mondale- Not -Bush Bentsen Sure --%­ % %

TOTAL 58 40 2

East 56 41 3 Midwest 55 43 2 South 59 39 2 \"est 61 35 4

Age 18-29 56 43 1 30-49 61 37 2 50-64 59 38 3 65 & over 52 43 5

Hen 65 33 2 Women Sl 46 3

Professional 60 39 1 Executive 66 33 1 Proprietor 73 23 4 Skilled labor 61 36 3 Unskilled labor 43 55 2 White collar 57 40 3

Conservative 73 25 2 Middle of the road 56 40 4 Liberal 30 70 * White Protestant 68 30 2 White Catholic 53 42 5 Jewish 32 64 4

"Now suppose it is Reagan and Bush for the Republicans against a Democratic ticket of Mondale for President and a qualified woman, such as Representative Geraldine Ferraro of New York or Representative Patricla Schroeder of Colorado, for vice president. If you had to choose, would you vote for Reagan and Bush, the Republicans, or for Mondale and a qualified woman, the Democrats?"

REAGAN-BUSH VS.MONDALE-QUALIFIED WOMAN

Mondale- Reagan Qualified Not -Bush Woman Sure --%­ % %

TOTAL 54 44 2

East 50 48 2 ~1idwest 49 48 3 South 59 39 2 West 60 39 1

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REAGAN-BUSH VS. MONDALE-QUALIFIED WOMAN (CaNT.)

Mondale- Reagan Qualified Not -Bush Woman Sure -%­ % %

Age 18-29 50 49 1 30-49 55 43 2 50-64 57 42 1 65 & over 54 40 6

Men 62 36 2 Women 47 51 2

Professional 56 43 1 Execu t i ve 62 37 1 Proprietor 68 32 Skilled l'ibor 54 42 4 Unskilled labor 38 61 1 ,"hite collar 5 3 45 2

,~onservat.i ve 71 28 1 ~1id(' l.e of t h-: coad 52 45 3 L i~ '0r-:,r-al 25 7? 3

I.;'ni t e .rro t.e s r.an t. 67 31 2 Wh:t-.e CatnoLic 48 49 3 ,J R~'\, c' :1 26 14

'Nuw 5u~~ose it is Reagan dnd Bush for the Republicans against a Democratic ticket of MOlldale for president an~ Governor Mario Cuomo of New York for vice president If yo',:, had to c hoosc , would you ,T'-e for Reaganl"'d Bu s h . '::l'? Renublicans, or for ~londa.le e nt Cllomo, ~.he De mo c r a t s ?"

Reagan Mondale Not

-Bush

'0e Fl 2.

E,] s r 52 45 3 iv1j ..:.. ·~s t 55 42 3 1 3n l \ i: .... 6C 38 2 65 32 3

/';(_"2 L8-2.9 " , 42 1 30-49 60 38 2 ~O-64 ~C 38 4 c:,S & o v» : ') ~ 42 5

f," 33 2 5.: 46 3

t)rofessionn L 6(; 37 3 .'SxeclJ.ti\'e 65 33 2 P;oprietor 73 25 2 .3ki lIed Labo: (;0 37 3 i.1nsk i Lle d l(""lfy.:;r 46 52 2 ';Jhi!'"" col) at' 56 42 2

t c.o n t. i nuec ) THE HARRIS SURVEY June 21st, 1984

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REAGAN-BUSH VS. MONDALE-CUOMO (CONT.)

Reagan Mondale Not -Bush -Cuomo Sure -%­ % %

Conservative 74 25 1 Hiddle of the road 56 40 4 Liberal 28 71 1

White Protestant 69 29 2 White Catholic 53 44 3 Jewish 34 65 1

Between May 10th and 13th, the Harris Survey asked a cross section of 1,108 likely voters nationwide by telephone:

"Now suppose it is Reagan and Bush for the Republicans against a Democratic ticket of Mondale for president and a lead~ng businessman, such as Lee Iacocca of Chrysler, for vice president. If you had to choose, would you vote for Reagan and Bush, the Republicans, or for Mondale and Iacocca, the Democrats?"

REAGAN-BUSH VS. MONDALE-IACOCCA

Reagan Mondale- Not -Bush Iacocca Sure % % %

TOTAL 59 37 4

East 55 40 5 Midwest 59 37 4 South 62 34 4 West 59 36 5

Age 18-29 65 33 2 30-49 57 40 3 50- 64 59 37 4 65 & over 55 34 11

Men 61 36 3 Women 58 37 5

Professional 60 37 3 Executive 62 ] 4 4 Proprietor 67 31 2 Skilled labor 66 31 3 Unskilled labor 52 45 3 White collar 59 37 4

Conservative 75 22 3 Middle of the road 58 37 5 Liberal 30 66 4

White Protestant 67 28 5 White Catholic E4 33 3 Jewish 37 53 10

* less than 0.5% no response

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METHODOLOGY

This Harris Survey was conducted by telephone with a representative cross section of likely voters 18 and over at 1,251 different sampling points within the United States between June 7th and 11th. Figures for age, sex and race were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire voting population had been polled.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

(c ) 1984 World Rights Reserved Tribune Media Services, Inc. 720 No. Orange Ave., Orlando, Fla. 32801

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