Kennedy Leads Presidential Pack

The Harris Survey1- . . !. i, For Release: Monday, April 21, 1975 4 , Q - .,, , "(. -a;., 4.

I' KENNEDY LEADS PRESIDENTIAL PACK

BY LOUIS HARRIS

Senator Edward Kennedy leads all Democratic and Republican candidates for President in 1976 --- including President Ford.

Kennedy beats Ford by a substantial, 7 percent margin and is the only one of six prominent Democratic candidates to run ahead of the President in trial heats for the next presidential election.

This strong support for Sen. Kennedy is bound to set off speculation that he will finally agree to accept the Democratic nomination next year.

Kennedy's substantial, 50-43 percent lead over Ford is even more remarkable because most of his backing comes from people under 30. Kennedy beats Ford by a 64-22 percent majority among voters under 30, but slightly loses to Ford by 47-45 percent among all voters over 30. * Kennedy also loses the white vote by 48-45 percent, but he has a 89-10 percent landslide among blacks, which could account for his healthy lead.

~ennedy's strong constituency may disprove the popular political theory that a candidate whose base is young people and minority groups cannot win an election. L Of the other Democratic potential candidates, Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine and Senator Henry (Scoop) jacks or^ of Washington tie President Ford, while Senator Hubert Humphrey trails the President by only two percentage points (47-45 percent) . Lloyd Bentsen (D. -Tex. ) , who has announced his candidacy runs behind by 47-38 percent, and Rep. Morris Udall of Arizona finishes well behind by 50-33 percent. Previous surveys show that Gov. George Wallace trails all candidates; he loses to Ford by a 61-30 percent margin.

Sen. Jackson leads all the Democratic candidates tested who have declared their candidacy. Yet, significantly, Jackson has not commanded a strong following among independent voters, the college educated, suburban voters or those under 30, all of whom are likely to be crucial in next year's election. He has also not gathered a strong backing among conservative, small-town and southern voters. So, while running respectively well, he has failed to firm up a base among older or newer groups of voters.

Of the six Democratic candidates tested, Kennedy is the only one who took the under-30 age group from President Ford. Bentsen, Udall and Humphrey lose the 18-29-year-old vote to President Ford by margins ranging from four to 17 percentage points. Sen. Jackson has a 44-44 percent split with the President, and Sen. Muskie holds a narrow, 47-44 percent lead.

Bentsen and Udall, both actively seeking the nomination, are not yet widely enough known to have a fair test in the Harris Survey. Yet it is possible the Americans, who are more disgruntled than usual with traditional politics and politicians, will seek a new face in 1976.

- OVER - .* Theee latest results demonstrate that Ford'e chancee are good ilr 1976 -- provided he does not face an independent, conservative challenge. In an earlier report, the Harris Survey showed that if former Gov. Ronald Reagan decided to run as a third-party conservative candidate, he could obtain as much as 21 percent of the vote, almost three quarters of which would be drawn from Ford's constituency.

Between April 1 and 4, the Harris Survey asked a cross section of 1,271 likely voters: d "For President in 1976, suppose it were between President Ford for the Republicans and (READ DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE'S NAME) for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, would you vote for Ford the Republican or for (DEMOCRATIC NAME)?"

FORD VS. DEMOCRATS FOR 1976

-Ford Democrat Not Sure % % % Ford vs. Kennedy Ford vs. Muskie Ford vs. Jackson Ford vs. Humphrey Ford vs. Bentsen Ford vs. Udall

President Ford's chances apparently rest on keeping the conservatives from beginning an independent campaign against him; strangely enough, Sen. Kennedy's lead may rest on refusing his candidacy for as long as possible.

Kennedy seems to hzve stronger backing when it looks as though he will not run. If he declares himself in the race, some of his backing could ease off. But at present, an undeclared Edward Kennedy looks stronger than anyone else tested among either party for 1976.