ABC News -Harris Survey --_._------
For Release: Thursday AM, June 26, 1980 Vol. II, No. 78 ISSN 0163-4846' MUSKIE COULD BE VIABLE ALTERNATIVE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
By Louis Harris
If Secretary of State Edmund Musxie we=e to be nominated by the Democrats as their candidate for president, he wOuld run a 48-48 percent dead-even race against Ronald Reagan, if the election were held now. By contrast, the same cross section of likely voters gives Reagan a 51-44 percent lead over President Carter.
Muskie has been mentioned as a possible compromise candidate if the conclusion at the Democratic convention in August is that Carter can't win a second term and an alternative is sought. Indeed, when Muskie is introduced as a possible choice among Democrats and independents, 30 percent would like to see him nominated. while only 28 percent opt for Senator Edward Kennedy and 38 percent would prefer Carter. The key fact is that a 58-38 percent major~ty of Democrats and independents are saying loud and clear that they want someone other than President Carter as their presidential nominee this year.
This latest ABC News - Harris Survey of 1,476 likely voters nationwide reveals that when the results of a Muskie-R~agan pairlng are compared with the results of a test between Carter and Reagan among the same voters, the dilemma· for the Democrats in 1980 is clear:
--On a regional basis, Muskie leads Reagan by 51-45 percent outside the South, compared with Carter, who is runnlng 51-44 percent behlnd Reagan there. In 1976, Carter overcame some of his apparent Northern weaknesses by sweeping the South, carrying every state in that region except Virginia. ~ow, however, Carter is behind Reagan in the South by 53-45 percent. In order to ~in re-election, Carter must either recapture the South or make up for his losses in his .home region with gains in the big industrial states of the North. Muskie loses the South to Reagan by an even wider margin than Carter does, 56-40 percent, but he makes up ground with a much stronger showing than Carter in the North. Indeed, in just the eight big Northern industrial states, Muskie runs ahead of Reagan by 53-42 percent, while Carter loses to Reagan by 49-45 percent. In the 10 largest states, including Texas and Florida, Reagan holds a 50-44 percent margin over Carter, while Muskie leads the former California governor by 50-45 percent.
--Muskie also does well against Reagan with the fatest growing part of the electorate: the college educated, professional people and independent voters. He leads Reagan among those with 2 college education by a narrow 49-48 percent, while Carter loses that vote by 55-42 percent. Muskie is also ahead among professionals by 52-46 percent, but Carter runs behind among them by 51-46 percent. Muskie is ahead of Reagan with independents by a narrow 51-48 percent, but Carter is far behind Reagan with this key gro~p by 55-]9 percent. These groups have been increasingly important in national elections in recent years, both because their numbers are growing and because they tend to vote less by party affiliation and more according to the merits of the individual candidate. In addition, these more affluent voters are more likely to go to the polls than other groups.
--Among the so-called "gut" voting segments that are traditionally Democratic, the pattern is more mixed. Carter wins the black vote against Reagan by 78-16 percent, while Muskie takes this group by a smaller 63-28 percent. Carter is ahead among young people under 30 by a slim 50-49 percent, but Muskie loses the youth vote to Reasan by 52-45 percent.
(over) ABC NEWS - HARRIS SURVEY June 26, 1980 -2
However, among union members, Muskie leads Reagan by 57-38 percent, compared with a much smaller Carter lead of 49-46 percent. Among Catholics, Muskie is ahead by 52-45 percent, while Carter trails by 49-44 percent. Among Jewish voters, Muskie holds a commanding 82-15 percent lead, far above Carter's 58-38 percent with this group.
Significantly, neither Carter nor Muskie does well among conservative voters. Carter loses to Reagan among them by 64-33 percent, and Muskie loses by an almost identical 63-34 percent. However, among mlddle of the road voters, Carter loses to Reagan by 48-47 percent, but Huskie wins against Reagan among them by 53-43 percent. Among liberal voters, Carter wins over Reagan by 59-34 percent, but Muskie wins the same group by a wider 66-31 percent.
Basically, Muskie fits the pattern of a Democratic moderate whose appeal is rooted in the North, especially in the big industrial states ~.~ose electoral votes are so critical in the election. Against Reagan, Muskie would have to write off most of the South, but could win the elect~on by carrying the rest of the country. Carter's problem is that he does not do well enough in the South and he shows real weakness in the North, especially in the eight big industrial states where he lost five of the eight primaries to Kennedy.
TAB L E S
Between June 5th and 9th, the ABC News - Harris Survey asked a cross section of 1,476 likely voters nationwide by telephone:
"Suppose for president next November, it was between Ronald Reagan for the Republicans and Jimmy Carter for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, would you vote for Reagan or for Carter?"
"Suppose in November, Ronald Reagan was the Republican candidate and Edmund Muskie was the Democratic candidate for president. If you had to choose, would you vote for Reagan or for Muskie?"
1980 PRESIDENTIAL RACE REAGAN/CARTER - REAGAN!MUSKIE
Not Not Reagan Carter sure Reagan Muskie sure -rt- -% % ~ % %
Nationwide S1 44 S 48 4B 4
Outside South 51 44 5 45 51 4 South 53 45 2 56 40 4 8 largest Northern states· 49 45 6 42 53 5 10 largest states~* 50 44 6 4S 50 5
College educated 55 42 3 48 49 J Professionals 51 46 .3 46 52 2
Blacks 16 78 6 28 63 9 Age 19 - 29 49 50 1 52 4S 3
Union members 46 49 S 38 57 5
Catholi.cs 49 44 7 45 52 .3 Jewish 38 58 4 15 82 .3
Conservative 64 33 3 63 34 3 Middle of the road 48 47 5 43 53 4
Liberal 34 Sl 7 )1 66 .3 Independent 55 39 6 48 51 1
(continued) ABC NEWS - HARRIS SURVEY June 26, 1980 -3
"suppose the choice at the Democratic Party convention in August was not only between Carter and Kennedy, but also Secretary of State Edmund Muskie as a compromise choice. If you had to choose, would you prefer to see Carter, ~nnedy or Muskie as the Democratic nominee for president this year?"
PREFERENCE AMONG CARTER/KENNEDY/MUSKIE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Carter 38
Kennedy 28
Muskie 30
Not sure 4
.8 largest Northern states: California, New YorK, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts
.·10 largest states: California, New York, Illinois, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts
Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. subscribes to the p~inciples of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. The principles are that all reports of survey findings of member organizations, prepared specifically for public release, will include reference to the following: sponsorship of the survey; dates of interviewing; method of obtaining the interviews; population that was sampled; size of the sample; size and description of the sub-sample, ~f the survey report relies primarily on less than the total sample; complete wording of questions upon which the release is based; and, the percentages upon which conclusions are based.
All of this information is provided in this release .
• (e) 1980 The Chicago Tribune World Rights Reserved The Chicago Tribune - New York News Syndiate, Inc. 220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
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