The Harris Survey - - -- For Rzlea~e: Monday, February 28, 1972

MUSKIE CONTINUES TO LEAD DEMOCRATS BY LOUIS HARRIS

Sen. Edmund Nuskie of Maine continues to hold a substantial lead over the rest of the Democratic field as the nationwide choice of Democrats and Independents for President. Sen. Hubert Humphrey holds onto second place among announced candidates, but Gov. George Wallace of Alabama has moved into a strong third as a contender within the Democratic party. Although still far down on the list, Rep. Shirley.Chisholn of New York has doubled her percentage during the past month and emerges as a serious political factor in the frac- tionalized Democratic Presidential sweepstakes. Between February 8th and 14th, 1,083 Democrats and Independents who were judged likely to vote next November were asked: "Which one of the people on this list (HANDRESPONDENT CARD) would be your first choice for the~mocraticpresidential nomination this year?" PRESIDENTIAL FREFEFtENCE Feb. Jan. Nov. Sept. Total Dems. and Inds. Sen. Edmund Muskie Y-F*?-28 30 27 27 Sen. Hubert Hunphrey 17 18 21 23 Gov. George Wallace X X X Kayor John Lindsay l38 8 12 11 Sen. Henry Jackson 6 5 4 2 Sen. George McGovern 6 7 7 5 Rep. Shirley Chisholm 6 X X Eugene McCarthy 5 8 5 9 Sen. Vance Hartke 1 X X X Mayor Sam Yorty 1 1 X None 7 11 6 Not Sure 13 12 17 X - Not listed These results reflect what might have happened if there had been a national Democratic primary in mid-February. They cannot be taken as indicative of how any one state primary will turn out, however, since there are sharp regional and even state differences in pre- ference. For example, Sen. MuSkie holds a commanding lead in the East, but loses 20-23 percent to Gov. Wallace in the South. In the West, Sen. Muskie leads, but only marginally, followed by Sen. Humphrey and Sen. Henry Jackson of Washington. Another big Democratic field this year has brought about a situation where Muskie as the front-runner has never succeeded in capturing more than one-third of the preferences of his party's rank and file nation- wide. In addition, of course, the individual state primaries do not have the same combination of candidates on the ballot. Thus, for example, In New Sanipshire Sen. George McGovern does not have to contend with healy competition from other 'liberal" candidates, such as Mayor John Lindsay, Eugene McCarthy, and Rep. Shirley Chisholm. McGovern should do better in New Hampshire than he does nationally when pitted against 10 other rivals. Comparably, Gov. Wallace undoubtedly will do better in the Florida primary than he would do outside the South. His levels of support outside the South currently run only 6 per- cent in the East, 9 percent in the Midwest, and 9 percent in the West. This compares with 25 percent for Wallace in the South as a whole and 39 percent in his native Deep South. One of the surprises of this latest Harris Survey is the surge of Rep. Shirley Chisholm, the black member of Congress from Brooklyn. She receives 35 percent of the vote from black Democrats and Independents and leads all other potential nominees in this ethnic group. In addition, her support among women is now three times higher than among men. Ms. Chis- holm must now be considered a distinct threat to Mayor Lindsay, Sen. McGovern, and former Sen. Eugene McCarthy in vying for the liberal and left-of-center vote. She is likely to make a respectable showing in some primaries and could be a force to reckon with at the Democratic convention. The line-up of preference.among Democrats and Independents isnot precisely the same, although Sen. Muskie leads enong both groups: Der~o- Indepen- crata dents 7 B Muskie Humphrey Wallace Lindsay McGovern Chlsholn McCarthy Jackson Hartke Yorty None Not Sure While btuskie holds firm with about the sane percentages among Democrats and Independents, Sen. Humphrey's strength is among Democratic party stalwarts. The Minnesotan fades among Independents. Cn the other hand, Gov. Wailace and Sen. Jackson are weaker anong Demo- cratic regulays than among IRdependents. This survey also included a trial heat national primary with Sen. Edward Kennedy In the running: DEMOCRATIC F'REr'WEMCE WITH KENNEDY IN CONTEST Dems .- bInds Dems thskie 24 23 Humphrey 15 18 Kennedy 12 15 Wallace 12 11 Jackson 6 Lindsay 6 2 McGovern Chis holm McCarthy Hartke Yort y None Not Sure These February results mark a sharp drop for Sen. Kennedy, down from 22 percent in Janu- ary. This can be attributed to three developments: 1) Ma. Chisholm finishes aheed of him among blacks, previously a Kennedy stronghold; 2) Gov. Wallace cuts into Kennedy's union labor vate; 3) Kennadyls repeated denials of hia candldacy have diminished the intensity of his following. Buttressing the Muskie front-runner position were the pairinga pitting the Maine Senator in head-to-head tests against either Humphrey and Wallace: "Suppose for the Democratic namination for Resident it were between Senator Muskie and Governor Wallace. Whom would you be for, if you had to choose?" and "Suppose for the Democratic nomination fo: President it were between Senator Muskie and Senator Humphrey. Whom would you be for? MUSKIE VS. WALLACE AND HUMPHREY D-8.- Inds Dems YInds Muskie vs. Wallace -e Muskie Wallace Not Sure Muskie vs. Humphrey Muskie Humphrey h'ot Sure In both two-way testa, mskie emerge8,as the clear choice of both Democrats and Indepen- dents. In the South, he edgea out Wallace by a 51-40 percent.margin. However, in the Deep South, Wallace forges ahead 51 to 36 percent. In the.'rest of the country, Muskie is nearly a P-to-1 choice of Democrats and Independents over the Alabama governor. Thus the large numbe2 of Democratic ho~cfulsthis year has obviously obscured the fact that Democrats an3 Independents p~eferSen. >lu;kie over any single rival by a more definitive margin than is evident In a laundry list of the whole field. Copyright: 1372 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc. World Rights Reserved