HUMPHREY FAVORED OVER Mcgovern NATIONALLY, but NOT in WEST

The Harris Survey

For Release: ' Thursday, June 1, 1972

HUMPHREY FAVORED OVER McGOVERN NATIONALLY, BUT NOT IN WEST

BY LOUIS HARRIS

In a showdown test nationwide among Democratic and Independent voters, Sen. Hubert Hum- phrey led Sen. George NcGovern 45-40 percent in early Yay as the preference for the Democratic party nomination for President. However, in the crucial western part of the country, where next Tuesday's pivctal primary will be held, McGovern led Humphrey 43-42 percent. In addition, in a two-way race, Humphrey was more the beneficiary than McGovern among voters whose l'irst choice was Gov. George Wallace of Alabama. Between May 9th and loth, a cross section of 1,123 Democratic and independent voters was asked : "Suppose for the Democratic nomination for President itl,were between Senator Hubert Humph- rey and Senator George McGovern, whom would you be for? HUMPKRN VS. McGOVERN (~emocratsand independents ) McGovern Not Sure 7k Nationwide -4u 15 By Region - East Kidwest South West

50 and over ~$5.000 5,000-9; ~99 l0,OOO-1 ,999 f 15,000 and over

Independent "w;;;; By "w;;;; Black By Union status Union families

The Humphrey-McGyer; confrontation splits the Democratic party doyn the middle between the traditional gut vote, on the one hand, and the "new politics elements on the other. Humphrey's appeal is rooted in the groups which made u:, the old New Deal coa!ition, while McGoverngs ;acking can be found among those voters who constitute the newer coalition for change. Here is how the division cute by key segments of the electorate: -- The most visible difference between McGovern and Humphrey is by age, with the under-30 vote going for the South Dakota Senator, but with the former Vice President dominating the vote 50 and over. -- Humphrey and McGovern patterns are very dif f'erent by income. The Minnesota Senator's strength is rooted among the lower and lower-middle income voters. 3y contrast, McGovern leads among the more affluent and better educated. -- Humphrey has dominated the black vote, on the basis of his well-known record in the past of having fought for civil rights. Despite endorsements from many prominent black leaders in recent weeks, McGovern has suffered from a lack of identity in the black community and from unfamiliarity with his stands on the racial issue. -- Humphrey runs well ahead among persons who have been life-long Democrats, but McGovern runs away with the vote of independents. -- Humphrey carries the union vote handily, but loses to McGovern among persons who do not have a member of their family in a union. -- Humphrey ran ahead of McGovern in the South by a whopping 20 points, but trailed McGovern in early May by a razor-thin edge throughout the West -- and that is where Cali- fornia's pivotal primary will take place next week. The 45-40 percent overall lead among Democratic'and independent voters for Hubert Humphrey might have made him a slight favorite in a nationwide primary, if one had been held in May just between him and George McGovern. At that time, however, the momentum was with McGovern . And most observers agree that it will be California next Tuesday and not the nation where the decisive Humphrey-McGovern test will be held. California has a big union population and a substantial older citizen, black, and Chicano constituency, which might work to Humphrey's advantage. Also, the .California primary is closed to all but enrolled Democrats. Nonetheless, California also has a larger young vote and more higher-income and better- educated voters than the Democratic party nationally. And its politics tend to more nearly fit the mood of the new rather than the old politics. All of these elements will be work- ing powerfully in McGovernls behalf. It is possible, of course, that although he is not entered in the California primary, Gov. Gecrge '.'zll=ce ~.ightzakc the xrgizzl Ci"f=?c;.cc on tkc 0ztcorr.e. Wallace is the first choice of 19 percent of all western Democrats and independents. His backers have been waging a write-in campaign on his behalf in California. Nationally, the Wallace vote goes nearly 3-2 for Humphrey over McGovern, but those flares include the South, where McGovern has minimhl strength. On a state-by-state basis, McGovern and GIallace have sometimes split a segment of the political protest that has characterized the 1972 campaign. The final outcome in California could ride on how many Wallace voters bother to write in their man's name, how many stay at home, or hovr many switch to Hubert Humphrey or George McGovern. And that might be the ultimate irony of 1972's primary season.