Dr. Taras Kuzio, Senior Fellow, Chair of Ukrainian Studies, University of Toronto. Big Tent: Big Tent: Core support: Donetsk National democrats; and Crimean regional 2 oligarchs; interests; Medium sized Oligarchs & big Business; businessmen; Ex-communists and Pan Slavists; Regional interests; Allied to Russian Only national political nationalists (Crimea); force. Ex-Kuchma supporters; Former & current Organized Crime.
Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc Party of Regions United Energy Systems; 2 jail terms; Governor Donetsk oblast, 1996-99: Rada Deputy: 1997-2002; 1. Independent; Election fraud (Kuchma) 2. Hromada Party; 1999, 2002; Twice Prime Minister, 3. Batkivschina Party. 2002-04, 2006-07; Deputy PM (Energy); 2006-: alliance with Imprisoned; Russian nationalists in the Crimea; 2001-04: Opposition 2006 & 2007 elections: leader; Regions first place; Orange Revolution; 2007: Rada crisis & pre- term elections; Twice Prime Minister: 2008-09: opposition. 2005, 2007-
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych Orange Revolution key Orange Revolution was “political technology” (i.e. supporter & mobiliser; US conspiracy); Support for opposition Yanukovych was legally candidate Yushchenko; elected; No election fraud (as proven Support for criminal by no prosecutions); punishment for Supreme Court ruling was illegal; election fraud; Attempted prosecutions Argue aims of the were political persecution; Maidan were not 2010 election will be proof (revenge) for above views. implemented.
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych Independent of oligarchs; Not independent; Anti-oligarch rhetoric Oligarchs dominate Party (especially in energy); of Regions; Re-nationalisation (2005); Akhmetov wealthiest Transparent privatisation in person in Eurasia & 2005: Kryvorizhstal; Europe; Potential diversification Never anti-oligarch; economy beyond big Continued lop-sided business & raw material economy: domination by exports; big business; No separation of business & Non-transparent (insider) politics: privatisation; 1. No Bandits to prison; Corrupt Kyiv Mayor is ally 2. No amnesty. of Yanukovych in 2010;
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych Ukrainian Elections: Former Communists are 1. Populist programmes; Influential wing of 2. High claims of socio- Regions: populist economic successes; policies; Rada and presidential 3. Extravagant promises; election programmes Tymoshenko: populist: greatest Interventionist & number of promises on populist? 2010 election billboards; Social market economy 2009 law on increase in (New Labour); social payments: Anti-oligarch and anti- negative influence on IMF corruption rhetoric; Stand-By Agreement.
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych Continue moderate D.Tabachnyk: nation-building policies Sovietophile-Russophile in 1991-04; view of history & nationalism; Nation-building & history Neo-Soviet, anti- less personalised; nationalist rhetoric in 1933 Famine recognized 2002 & 2004 elections; as genocide; Not support law on famine; Legislation on Soviet Benign historical view of persecution and Russia; nationalist partisans; Regional autonomy on Historical view of Russia nation-building, unchanged. language & history.
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych Continue moderate 2004, 2006, 2010 policies in place from Elections: Russian as a 1991; second state language; Ukraininisation of Drop Ukrainianisation education; of TV and film; Ukrainian state Donetsk and Crimea: language; continue closing Ukrainianisation in TV Ukrainian schools; and films; Printed media continue be mainly in Russian.
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych Anti-separatist; 2006 elections: For 2008 war: supported Yanukovych bloc allied Georgian territorial Regions & 2 Russian nationalist parties in integrity; Crimea; Never aligned with 2008: supported Russian nationalists in independence of South the Crimea. Ossetia & Abkhazia; Support for regional separatists in Trans- Carpathia.
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych Batkivschina is the most Regions cooperation active Ukrainian party in agreement with Unified European parliament; Russia, not with European Peoples Party European parliament; supports Tymoshenko in Few visits to Brussels- 2010 elections; Strasbourg; Tymoshenko-Nemyria are EU rhetoric reminiscent active lobbyists in Brussels- of Kuchma era; Strasbourg; Oligarchs interested in EU membership at centre of implementing Free Trade 2010 election programme; Zone policies? WTO membership: stepping Will Yanukovych’s stone to EU-Ukraine Free election re-set relations Trade Zone. with the EU?
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych No gas consortium with Yes to gas consortium Russia; with Russia; Gas pipeline modernisation Gas pipeline only with the EU; modernisation with the No gas intermediaries EU and Russia; (RosUkrEnergo); Gas intermediaries: yes Support for energy please! sovereignty; Vanco: Regions were 2 of Mobilised Rada for law 4 Ukrainian joint owners; blocking transfer of Renegotiate 2010 gas pipelines (February 2007); contract to receive gas Vanco and Black Sea shelf. subsidies.
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych Backburner: No NATO membership; 1. Popularity not increased; PfP cooperation lower 2. Political instability; than in Kuchma era; 3. Ukraine fatigue; No pro-NATO wing of 4. German opposition; 5. Bush and Obama; Regions; Tymoshenko: September 2006: Pro-NATO wing; Yanukovych told NATO January 2008: joint letter to no MAP. NATO; PfP cooperation return to high levels.
Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych EU seeks good Ukraine- Endorsed by Russian media in 2010 elections; Russia relations and Support for Single Economic stable gas transit; Space Customs Union; Support for separatism in Pragmatic economic- Georgia; energy relationship. Does Regions-Unified Russia not impinge on Ukraine’s cooperation (since 2005); Dismiss Russia as a threat; European integration; Support criticism in Russia is a potential Medvedev letter; Support Russia on new threat; European Security Treaty; Criticised Medvedev For Ukraine’s neutrality, but back Sevastopol as long- letter to Yushchenko. term BSF base. Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych Autocephalous Orthodox Ally of Russian Orthodox Church; Church; Russophile nation-building & Ukrainophile nation-building & historiography; historiography; NATO: NATO: 1. No to MAP & membership; 1. 2002: NATO membership; 2. Lower cooperation within PfP; 2. Twice requested MAP (2002, 3. Support for Russian proposal of 2004); new European Security Treaty; 3. Most active CIS country in PfP Black Sea Fleet can be extended (1994-2004); beyond 2017; Black Sea Fleet: no extension Crimea: Regions aligned with beyond 2017; Russian nationalists; Crimea: anti-separatist; Russia not a threat; Russia is a potential threat (Tuzla, 2003); Disinterest in GUAM and anti- Georgian; GUAM and Georgia;
Leonid Kuchma Viktor Yanukovych