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Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) | REM Forecasting Report

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Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) | REM Forecasting Report Réseau électrique CDPQ Infra Inc métropolitain (REM) REM Forecasting Report Our ref: 22951101 November 2016 Client ref: BC-A06438 Réseau électrique CDPQ Infra Inc métropolitain (REM) REM Forecasting Report Our ref: 22951101 November 2016 Client ref: BC-A06438 Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Davies Gleave CDPQ Infra Inc Suite 970 - 355 Burrard Street 1000 Place Jean-Paul-Riopelle Vancouver, BC V6C 2G8 Montréal QC H2Z 2B3 Canada +1 (604) 629 2610 na.steerdaviesgleave.com Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material for CDPQ Infra Inc. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer Davies Gleave has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer Davies Gleave shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer Davies Gleave for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 The Project .......................................................................................................................................... 1 Report Structure ................................................................................................................................. 1 Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................... 2 2 Project Definition ..................................................................................................................... 3 Stations and Alignment ...................................................................................................................... 3 Park & Ride network ........................................................................................................................... 7 Rail Network Reorganisation .............................................................................................................. 8 Bus Network Reorganization .............................................................................................................. 9 Fare Assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 12 3 Current situation .................................................................................................................... 13 Background ....................................................................................................................................... 13 South Shore/A10 Market .................................................................................................................. 14 West Island/Deux-Montagnes Line Market ...................................................................................... 18 Aéroport Pierre-Elliott-Trudeau Market ........................................................................................... 25 Existing Fares .................................................................................................................................... 32 4 Modelling approach................................................................................................................ 36 Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 36 Model overview ................................................................................................................................ 36 Network development ...................................................................................................................... 38 Corridor Demand Choice Models ..................................................................................................... 44 Airport model ................................................................................................................................... 53 Expansion factors .............................................................................................................................. 58 Ramp up ............................................................................................................................................ 61 5 Demand Development ............................................................................................................ 63 2015 Demand - Base Year ................................................................................................................. 63 Demand Growth ............................................................................................................................... 74 November 2016 Future Transit Matrix Development ................................................................................................. 81 Auto Future Matrix Development .................................................................................................... 85 6 Model Calibration ................................................................................................................... 86 Traffic Model .................................................................................................................................... 86 Transit Model .................................................................................................................................... 90 Airport Model ................................................................................................................................... 99 7 REM Sponsor Case Forecasts ................................................................................................. 101 Sponsor Case definition .................................................................................................................. 101 Sponsor Case Forecast Review (2015) ............................................................................................ 103 Sponsor Case Forecasts (2021 and 2031) ....................................................................................... 111 8 Sensitivity Tests .................................................................................................................... 122 Identified risks ................................................................................................................................ 122 Sensitivity Tests .............................................................................................................................. 122 Low and High Case Definition ......................................................................................................... 124 Ridership Forecasts ......................................................................................................................... 126 Figures Figure 2.1: REM Network .................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2.2: REM and Montréal’s transit network ............................................................................... 7 Figure 3.1: REM project .................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 3-2: Saint-Laurent River Crossings ......................................................................................... 15 Figure 3-3: Saint-Laurent River crossing transit alternatives ........................................................... 16 Figure 3-4: Current Transit Network (Rive-Sud) ............................................................................... 17 Figure 3-5: West Island auto screenlines .......................................................................................... 20 Figure 3-6: Rail and Métro network in the West Island/Deux-Montagnes Line Corridor ................ 22 Figure 3-7: Deux-Montagnes Line AM Peak Profile (Sept 11th 2014) – Towards Downtown Montréal ........................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 3.8: 747 route alignment and stations .................................................................................. 26 November 2016 Figure 3-9: 747 Weekday Hourly demand profile ........................................................................... 29 Figure 3-10: Average 747 Daily Boardings and Alightings per Stop (March-June 2015) .................. 31 Figure 3.11: AMT Fare Zone Map (August 2016) .............................................................................. 32 Figure 4.1: Forecasting Model Overview .......................................................................................... 37 Figure 4.2: MOTREM zoning system ................................................................................................. 39 Figure 4.3: MOTREM road network .................................................................................................. 40 Figure 4.4: Bus only lanes ................................................................................................................. 41 Figure 4.5: Transit services
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