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Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) | REM Forecasting Report

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Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) | REM Forecasting Report Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) | REM Forecasting Report Réseau Électrique CDPQ Infra Inc. Métropolitain (REM) REM Forecasting Report Our reference: 22951103 February 2017 Client reference: BC-A06438 Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) | REM Forecasting Report Réseau Électrique CDPQ Infra Inc. Métropolitain (REM) REM Forecasting Report Our reference: 22951103 February 2017 Client reference: BC-A06438 Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Davies Gleave CDPQ Infra Inc. Suite 970 - 355 Burrard Street 1000 Place Jean-Paul-Riopelle Vancouver, BC V6C 2G8 Montréal, QC H2Z 2B3 Canada Canada +1 (604) 629 2610 na.steerdaviesgleave.com Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material for CDPQ Infra Inc.. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer Davies Gleave has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer Davies Gleave shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer Davies Gleave for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) | REM Forecasting Report Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 The Project .......................................................................................................................................... 1 Steer Davies Gleave ............................................................................................................................ 1 Report Structure ................................................................................................................................. 2 Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................... 3 2 Project Definition ..................................................................................................................... 4 Stations and Alignment ...................................................................................................................... 4 Park & Ride Network .......................................................................................................................... 8 Rail Network Reorganization .............................................................................................................. 9 Bus Network Reorganization ............................................................................................................ 10 Fare Assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 12 3 Current situation .................................................................................................................... 13 Background ....................................................................................................................................... 13 South Shore/A10 Market .................................................................................................................. 14 West Island/Deux-Montagnes Line Market ...................................................................................... 18 Aéroport Pierre-Elliott-Trudeau Market ........................................................................................... 25 Downtown Montréal Market............................................................................................................ 31 Existing Fares .................................................................................................................................... 35 4 Modelling approach................................................................................................................ 40 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 40 Model Overview ............................................................................................................................... 40 Network Development ..................................................................................................................... 42 Corridor Demand Choice Model ....................................................................................................... 48 Airport Model ................................................................................................................................... 57 Expansion Factors ............................................................................................................................. 62 Ramp Up ........................................................................................................................................... 66 5 Demand Development ............................................................................................................ 67 February 2017 Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) | REM Forecasting Report 2015 Demand Base Year ................................................................................................................... 67 Demand Growth ............................................................................................................................... 77 Future Transit Matrix Development ................................................................................................. 84 Auto Future Matrix Development .................................................................................................... 88 6 Model Calibration ................................................................................................................... 89 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 89 Traffic Model .................................................................................................................................... 90 Transit Model .................................................................................................................................... 94 Airport Model ................................................................................................................................. 107 7 REM Sponsor Case Forecasts ................................................................................................. 109 Sponsor Case Definition .................................................................................................................. 109 Sponsor Case Forecast Review (2015) ............................................................................................ 111 Sponsor Case Forecasts (2021 and 2031) ....................................................................................... 119 8 Sensitivity Tests .................................................................................................................... 129 Identified risks ................................................................................................................................ 129 Sensitivity Tests .............................................................................................................................. 129 Low and High Case Definition ......................................................................................................... 131 Ridership Forecasts ......................................................................................................................... 134 Figures Figure 2-1: REM Network ................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2-2: REM and Montréal’s Downtown Transit Network ........................................................... 8 Figure 3-1: REM Project .................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 3-2: Saint Lawrence River Crossings ...................................................................................... 15 Figure 3-3: Saint Lawrence River Crossing Transit Alternatives ....................................................... 16 Figure 3-4: Current Transit Network (South Shore) ......................................................................... 17 Figure 3-5: West Island Auto Screenlines ......................................................................................... 20 Figure 3-6: Rail and Métro Network in the West Island/Deux-Montagnes Line Corridor ................ 22 February 2017 Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) | REM Forecasting Report Figure 3-7: Deux-Montagnes Line AM Peak Profile (Sept 11th 2014) – To Downtown Montréal ... 23 Figure 3-8: 747 Express Airport Shuttle Route Alignment and Stations ........................................... 26 Figure 3-9: 747 Express Airport Shuttle Weekday Hourly Demand Profile ...................................... 29 Figure 3-10: Average 747 Express Airport Shuttle Service Daily Boardings and Alightings (March- June 2015)........................................................................................................................................
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