Assembly
Delivering Gigabit Britain: Broadband for all
27 April 2020 Contents Assembly
Executive Summary 4
Policy Recommendations 5
Introduction 7
From superfast to gigabit-capable broadband 7 The UK’s connectivity roadmap 7 The benefits of gigabit broadband 9
Policy Context 12
Future Telecommunications Infrastructure Review 13 The Government’s plan under Boris Johnson 14 Ofcom’s Wholesale Fixed Telecoms Market Review 15 National Infrastructure Strategy 16 Copper switchover and switch-off 16 Shared Rural Network 17
Overcoming Deployment Challenges 18
Physical challenges 19 Policy challenges 21
Use Cases for Gigabit Connectivity 24
Government and education 25 Live and social events 27 Media and entertainment 27 Healthcare 28 Smart cities and smart mobility 30
© 2020 Assembly 2 Assembly
An independent report by Assembly Research, commissioned by Huawei, with input from:
CityFibre Mobile UK Openreach techUK Three UK Virgin Media
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© 2020 Assembly 3 Executive Summary Assembly
he UK Government has set clear, way to support investment, there are a number of ambitious targets for the availability ‘enablers’ that still need to be secured from the of full-fibre and 5G – wanting to bring Government and regulator. These include support for gigabit-capable broadband to every switchover from copper to fibre to incentivise roll-out, home and business across the country business rates exemption for full-fibre to help secure by 2025. The coronavirus pandemic has laid bare investment, and a credible approach to the so called the dependency we place on this critical national final third (the 10–20% of the country that will not be infrastructure, which has allowed us to work, learn commercially viable), so that nobody is left behind. and play from the safety of our homes. Over the past few years, the UK has made significant progress, in The challenge may appear daunting, but the UK isn’t both mobile and fixed connectivity. The UK is a world the first to have made this journey. It is already well leader in superfast with more than 95% of premises known that countries in Asia have achieved impressive covered, and this continues to rise. But in full-fibre coverage of gigabit-capable broadband as a result coverage we lag behind world leaders such as Japan of supportive government policy, but others closer to and South Korea, and in some cases our neighbours home – such as France and Spain provide valuable in Europe. lessons that UK policymakers can learn from. Whether that is ensuring new builds have fibre pre-installed or Even before the pandemic, there was widespread simplifying planning applications for mobile masts, we consensus on the benefits of ubiquitous broadband need to make the most of this global experience and – seen as a driver and enabler of economic growth best practice. and new economic activity. Various attempts have been made to quantify this with estimates ranging Too often when talking about broadband we get from tens to hundreds of billions of pounds. Even caught up with just supply side issues, but equally with the usual caveats, and based on the most important, and often overlooked, is the demand conservative estimates, a delay to achieving full for broadband and the applications and services coverage of gigabit-capable broadband of even just that make use of it. With countries such as Japan, between one or two years, could mean the UK could China and South Korea being early adopters of new miss out on between £9.7 and £28.7bn of productivity applications and services that are supported by benefits. In any normal time, this would be significant, gigabit broadband technologies, we have looked at however with a degree of social distancing likely to some of the latest use cases. As well as life-saving continue and the need for a strong economic bounce- use of 5G during the coronavirus pandemic, we back, the importance of rolling out gigabit connectivity see coordinated government policy for making the and realising these benefits for the economy cannot urban environment smarter, connected live events be understated. and enhanced media and entertainment. Paying this attention to driving demand and a rapid take-up of The industry stands ready to deliver the Government’s full-fibre and 5G services will ease investor concerns ambitious plans, so long as the right conditions allow. and likely see the commercial footprint grow that But there is a risk that this goal will be missed. While much sooner. the regulatory environment is shifting in a material
© 2020 Assembly 4 Policy Recommendations Assembly
1 The focus on achieving the 2025 The 2025 target for 100% coverage of gigabit-capable broadband was always connectivity target should remain an ambitious one, which the industry shared in supporting given the right regulatory and policy enablers were put in place. Current events have illustrated given how crucial connectivity just how important it is to have reliable digital infrastructure for work, education is proving to be for UK citizens, and play and how even more important it is that this infrastructure meets the and how it will underpin future needs of future demands. The economic benefit of full-fibre and 5G is widely economic growth and recovery accepted, with significant contributions to productivity and GDP set to be realised if rollout is completed on time. Increasing investment in key digital infrastructure will provide the bounce-back and economic recovery the UK will desperately need in the months and years ahead.
2 Sufficient government subsidy Access to reliable, future-proof digital infrastructure for all isn’t a luxury, but and funding models must exist for now accepted as a necessity. The £5bn commitment for the hardest to reach 20% and the £510m as part of the shared rural network are both welcome non-commercial areas if the whole interventions, but remain modest in the sense of the overall £30bn the rollout country is to be covered and is expected to cost. The effectiveness of this subsidy also depends on how nobody is to be left behind the money is spent. Similar countries to the UK (such as France), are making available much more whether it’s pure subsidy or through extending voucher schemes to 5G fixed wireless access (FWA).
3 A commitment to the technology Until recently there has been a fixation on specifying technology when it comes neutral approach will be needed to broadband policy. Given the pace of technological change, and the suitability of some solutions over others when it comes to deployment, any gigabit- to reach the hardest parts of the capable technology should be considered – whether it’s cable, full-fibre or 5G country on time and in a cost FWA. To ignore this is not only counter to what end users care about, but also effective way means the UK stands little to no chance of meeting the target for the whole country. Any delay to the roll-out of these networks risks not achieving the target and the anticipated benefits.
© 2020 Assembly 5 Policy Recommendations Assembly
4 Investment and innovation should The intense competition between providers has resulted in considerable benefit be pursued through competition for end users in terms of faster speeds and lower prices. Encouraged by Ofcom and others, this rivalry has now spilled down to the infrastructure layer, where with a regulatory framework that multiple infrastructure builders are now deploying competing full-fibre networks. considers how this competition It’s widely accepted that this has increased the pace and reach of deployment. varies by geography However this model is unlikely to work for the whole of the country given different risk profiles and economics. Where competitive network build does not make sense, regulation should allow the appropriate recovery of costs.
5 Remaining barriers to deployment Encouraging progress has already been made on mandating full-fibre in new must be removed and promised build homes, which if legislated this year will help speed up fibre deployment. However there’s still more to do – whether it’s extending business rates planning reforms must be exemption for England and Wales as has been done in Scotland, or help completed with obtaining wayleaves – small but significant changes in policy will allow commercial deployments to reach more premises, sooner. Persistent barriers have been acutely felt by those rolling out 5G whether it’s with permitted development rights, out of date planning guidance or a mismatch between local and central government thinking.
6 The demand side must be given Much of the attention when it comes to broadband focuses on the supply – the more attention to encourage take- pipes and the plumbing. For investors, demand matters because it’s a route to profitable returns on significant investments. The content, applications and up and help lower investment risk services that consume the network matter as much as the fibre and spectrum used to make them possible. Government has an important role to play here – as a demand aggregator (moving more services online), helping those not currently connected understand the benefits of being so, and through more coordinated policymaking. Plans for a UK Industry 4.0, including smart cities need to better anticipate connectivity requirements to ensure the UK can compete with other leading economies.
© 2020 Assembly 6 Introduction Assembly
From superfast to gigabit-capable broadband
Over the past few years, the UK has made significant progress, in both mobile and fixed connectivity. The UK is a world leader in superfast with more than 95% of premises covered, and this continues to rise. In the years ahead, fixed and mobile networks will be the enabling infrastructure that drives economic growth. As the UK transitions towards this future, it faces the challenge to go beyond superfast, and embrace gigabit-capable broadband.
Gigabit broadband is any internet connection capable of reaching download speeds of 1Gbps. Typically, this is possible through fibre to the home/ premise (FTTH/P) (or now more commonly ‘full-fibre’), and cable. However recent deployments of 5G also provide a viable way to achieve similar levels of performance through mobile networks. In full-fibre, coverage is currently 10%, where the UK lags behind world leaders such as Japan (c.97%), and South Korea (c.99%). However there are considerable investment and network builds underway.
CityFibre CityFibre is a wholesale-only fibre network builder, which started operating The UK’s (FibreNation) in 2014. As of 6 March 2020, the company had gigabit services live in 11 cities, and set a target to deliver full-fibre to 100 UK cities through its Gigabit connectivity City Investment Programme1. Upon launch in October 20182, the programme involved a £2.5bn investment and targeted 5 million premises by 2025. Following the acquisition of FibreNation in January 20203, investment was roadmap scaled up to £4bn and now aims to cover 8 million premises by 2025. In February 2020, the company partnered with Three in providing backhaul capacity for Three’s 5G deployment outside London4.
Gigaclear Gigaclear is a rural fibre optic ISP which currently covers more than 200 rural communities in 22 counties across the South West, the Midlands, and the South East, for a total of 65,000 homes and businesses5. Gigaclear’s network is built through a mix of commercial funding and local government contributions via the Building Digital UK scheme (BDUK)6.
At present, Gigaclear is running six expansion projects across the counties of West Oxfordshire, Herefordshire and Gloucestershire, Berkshire, Essex, Northamptonshire, Wiltshire. In total, these will cover more than 182,000 homes and businesses with full-fibre, with most projects scheduled to be completed during 20217. Gigaclear is also investing £20m in Devon and Somerset.
Hyperoptic Hyperoptic is a full-fibre network provider having started in 2011, when it claimed to be the first to deliver gigabit speeds in the UK8. It currently covers more than 500,000 homes and businesses across 40 towns and cities and is on target to reach 2m premises by 2021, and 5m by 20249.
© 2020 Assembly 7 Introduction Assembly
Openreach Openreach runs the largest network in the UK, and has been the main provider involved in the rollout of the superfast broadband network that currently covers 95% of the country. It developed its Fibre First10 programme in April 2018, with a view to deploy full-fibre to four million homes and businesses by 2021, and to 15 million premises by 2025 – if the right regulatory and policy conditions are in place. As of February 2020, Openreach was on track for the 2021 target, and is currently connecting 26,000 premises each week, having already covered 2.2m homes and businesses11. Ultimately Openreach believe they can pass c.3m premises per year and continues to build in both urban and rural commuinities across the UK.
Virgin Media Virgin Media, owned by Liberty Global, is the UK’s largest cable operator, with a total of 14.9m UK homes passed as of Q4 201912. Its cable network delivers standard average speeds of 516Mbps for consumers and businesses (1104Mbps in gigabit broadband areas). It is currently upgrading its cable network, and plans to bring gigabit broadband to about 15m homes across its network by the end of 2021. As of March 2020, Virgin’s Gigabit broadband was available in Southampton, Manchester, Reading, Birmingham and Coventry and their surrounding areas, after launching in the West Midlands on 19 March 2020 for 1m homes13.
EE EE was the first UK operator to launch a 5G service in May 2019. This was initially in six high-population cities, and is currently available in 71 UK cities and towns14. They currently offer a range of home broadband and SIM-only plans. Among the SIM-only plans, the 5G plan offers unlimited data and costs only £5 more than EE’s unlimited data plan on 4G.
O2 O2 launched its 5G service in October 2019. It launched in six major towns and cities. As of March 2020, the number has increased to 30, with a view to bring 5G to at least 50 towns and cities in total by summer 202015. O2 does not differentiate between 4G and 5G plans in its SIM-only offering, meaning there is no price premium for 5G.
Three Three launched 5G as a home broadband service (5G FWA), in August 201916. This is currently available in parts of London, and the operator pledges to expand it to the rest of the UK “very soon”. In February 2020, Three launched 5G as a mobile service, available in 66 locations across the country17. Three reports that the maximum speeds available on the 5G home broadband service can reach up to 1.6Gbps. All Three’s SIM cards are 5G-ready and available at no extra cost18. There is a small premium on 5G home broadband, marketed at £29 per month whereas 4G home broadband plans range between £22 and £24 per month.
Vodafone Vodafone launched its 5G network on 3 July 2019. Vodafone’s 5G was available in seven cities at launch. As of March 2020, it was available in parts of 41 UK towns and cities19. Vodafone’s home 5G broadband service offers speeds of up to 1Gbps. Vodafone offers 5G at no extra cost to 4G. It is offered as the standard technology on any plan with a data allowance of at least 5GB of data per month.
© 2020 Assembly 8 Introduction Assembly
The benefits of gigabit broadband
Economic There is widespread consensus on the benefits The Economic Impact of Full Fibre benefits of ubiquitous broadband. While estimates vary, Infrastructure in 100 UK Towns and broadband is seen as a driver and enabler of economic growth and new economic activity in Cities (2018) both urban and rural areas. The following recent studies show the considerable contributions that are A 2018 study from CityFibre predicted the total possible. economic impact of deploying full-fibre broadband networks across 100 UK towns and cities23. It found that the UK’s business community (particularly small and medium sized companies), could benefit Future benefits of broadband enormously. networks (2017) Access to full-fibre could unlock £4.5bn in business Research published by the National Infrastructure productivity, innovation and access to new markets in Commission in 2017 assessed and quantified the these locations; a further £2.3bn in growth could be relative benefits of rollout to residential premises driven from catalysing new business start-ups; while of advanced Ultra-Fast Broadband Access (UFBA) the increased ability for companies to support flexible 20 under different scenarios (where UFBA is a mix working could add £1.9bn. The UK’s homeowners of technologies including FTTH/P and 5G). The and wider property market can also expect to combined effect of the use cases considered results reap rewards. With access to reliable, high speed in additional benefit to the UK economy of between broadband becoming ever-more important to buyers, £28.6bn and £71.1bn over 30 years between 2020 up to £7bn could be added to the value of homes. In and 2050. total, the study estimates that full-fibre could have a gross value added (GVA) impact of £62bn over a 15- year period, which translates into £120bn of GDP. UK strategy and plan for 5G & Digitisation (2017) Full fibre broadband: A platform The Future Communications Challenge Group for growth (2019) produced a report for the DCMS in 2017, which estimated that 5G could benefit the UK economy by a A 2019 report from Openreach24 made a similar total of £173bn between 2020 and 2030, from direct analysis, and concluded that, should the rollout be 21 and indirect benefits . completed by 2025 (the current Government target), nationwide, full-fibre broadband could unlock a positive GVA impact of £59bn in 2025, which would The economic impact of broadband: grow to £63.5bn in 2030, £66.3bn in 2033, and evidence from OECD countries (2018) £70.9bn in 2038. This is a conservative estimate based on uptake of fibre continuing at the current A 2018 study published by Ofcom found that the pace. Under a more optimistic scenario the benefits increase in broadband adoption over a 15-year period in 2038 would increase to between £79.9bn and (2002–2016) led to an increase in GDP of 0.37% per £131.8bn, should fibre have a more profoundly year, which meant a cumulative increase of 5.3% transformative impact on the UK economy. over the period22. The same study showed the strong positive relationship between broadband speed and economic growth. Taken together, the impact on UK GDP of broadband investment and speed improvements was on average 0.47% per year. The cumulative total was an addition of 6.7% to UK GDP.
© 2020 Assembly 9 Introduction Assembly
Economic The benefit of achieving the 2025 target on time benefits We have assessed the economic benefit of full coverage of gigabit-capable broadband based on the DCMS estimates of the impact of 5G, and Openreach’s most conservative estimates of the impact of FTTH/P rollout by 2025. In doing so, we have assumed (in line with the Government’s technology-neutral approach to the target), that 5G FWA will be the main technology used in the hardest-to-reach 20% of premises, leaving full-fibre and cable to account for the remaining 80%. Assuming rollout is completed by 2025, the UK could stand to benefit from £51.4bn GVA, growing to £68.8bn in 2030, should current rollout targets be met.
Figure 1: Impact of gigabit broadband on productivity (£bn)