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Aberdeen, 17 August 2019. Photo by author. The Contentious Politics of Scottish Independence

Scottish independence is back on the British political agenda. But through which to view ’s political who are independence supporters and what draws them to the tumult. This article reports from surveys of participants conducted at events in 2019 to cause? Michael T. Heaney reports on a recent survey of political consider the reasons that people participate demonstrations across Scotland. in nationalist and Unionist demonstrations, and examine the outlook for these rival s the gets a has made independence a political causes. better handle on the COVID-19 dividing line in Scottish politics – and Scottish crisis, many familiar issues that life. Since the 55-45 vote to stay in the UK, Another independence referendum? Ahad been set aside are now massive pro-independence marches have The pro-independence Scottish National returning to the fore. Among the most become a regular sight in Scottish cities Party has held power in Scotland’s devolved prominent is the demand to hold a second and towns. While these demonstrations Parliament in since 2007. The referendum on Scottish independence, with were postponed during the height of the SNP has long committed to holding another polls suggesting increasing numbers of pandemic, they are now returning cautiously referendum on independence. Indeed, the Scottish voters in favour of leaving the UK. to the streets. most recently called for a Far from settling the question, the 2014 Political marches provide a unique lens second independence referendum in January

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Political Insight December 2020 BU.indd 20 10/11/2020 15:46 Figure 1: Valence of Frames for Demonstrators’ Motivations for Participation of the Union than they cast aspersions on the independence cause. However, 100% counter-demonstrators were significantly 90% (p ≤ 0.01) more likely than independence 80% demonstrators to frame their motivations entirely negatively, with 30 per cent of 70% counter-demonstrators offering reasons 60% such as ‘to stop ’. This more 50% negative posture is to be expected in any counter-movement. As was the case for 40% independence demonstrators, counter- 30% demonstrators sometimes gave a mix of 20% positive and negative reasons (almost ten per cent of counter-demonstrators) or entirely 10% neutral motivations (only three per cent of 0% counter-demonstrators). Positive Positive and Negative Neutral The reasons given by respondents are Negative indicative of the concerns that were foremost in their minds when they were answering the survey. As many reasons as they listed were ■ Independence Demonstrators N= 1,241 ■ Unionist Counter-Demonstrators N=30 recorded, with some respondents giving numerous reasons. However, these answers may not provide a complete accounting 2020. However, holding such a referendum positive, negative, a combination of positive of an individual’s motivations. If they had is technically outside the Parliament’s power. and negative, or entirely neutral reasons. been further prompted, respondents might Yet, it is possible for the UK Parliament to Positive reasons included ‘to support Scottish have expanded upon their answers by use Section 30 of the to independence’ or ‘to support the Union’. offering additional motivations. Nonetheless, temporarily grant that power, if it so chooses. Negative reasons included ‘to end rule’ reviewing these reasons improves the This situation is a battle of wills between or ‘to stop the SNP’. Neutral reasons included understanding of the independence Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and ‘to listen to the speakers’ or ‘I came across the movement and its Unionist opposition. A Prime Minister . Independence rally by accident’. summary of the most common reasons given is central to Sturgeon’s political mandate. On The valence of respondents’ frames is reported in Table 1 on the following page. the other hand, Johnson campaigned against is reported in Figure 1. Independence Approximately four-fifths of independence allowing Scotland to leave the Union and demonstrators framed their motivations in demonstrators stated their motivations as has already declined its Section 30 request. overwhelmingly positive terms. More than aligning with the explicit purpose of the At the heart of the independence question three quarters explained their motivations movement by calling for independence, self- is whether Scotland can bring sufficient entirely positively, such as to promote a determination, freedom, and/or seeking to political pressure to bear to convince Johnson more just society or to build a better future support the movement. Almost one-quarter to change his mind. for their children. This finding suggests that of respondents stated their desire to show To help understand these politics, I fielded the movement is based more on a positive the public the strength of the movement. teams that conducted surveys of a random vision of an independent Scotland than on One in ten answers mentioned the need to sample of 1,327 participants for – and 35 grievances with the UK. support Scotland, or some part of Scotland, counter-demonstrators against – five pro- Fewer than ten per cent of independence such as the area in which a rally took place. independence demonstrations. The rallies demonstrators added negative reasons to These findings document a strong alignment were held between August and November their positive motivations, such as opposition between the movement’s leaders and its 2019 in Aberdeen, Perth, Edinburgh, and to or frustration with Boris Johnson’s grassroots supporters, suggesting that Glasgow (two demonstrations). leadership. Less than two per cent framed factionalism is not a substantial concern for their involvement entirely negatively. the movement. Why they march and how they Approximately 11 per cent used a neutral It was less common for respondents organise frame for their motivations. to volunteer direct opposition to the Each respondent was presented with Almost 60 per cent of Unionist counter- of the UK, to support Europe the open-ended question: ‘What are the demonstrators also framed their motivations or stop Brexit, or to advocate on policy most important reasons that you came in largely positive terms, such as expressing issues, all of which were mentioned by less to this event today?’ I coded responses the desire ‘to do what is best for Scotland’. than ten per cent of demonstrators. About with respect to whether the frames were They more readily projected a positive vision three per cent focused on their hopes for

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Political Insight December 2020 BU.indd 21 10/11/2020 15:46 Table 1: Reasons for Demonstrating Given by Pro-Independence future generations. Others expressed the and Pro-Union Activists goal to become more educated about the movement and its issues, to meet other Rank Reason Percent people, to transact personal business, or to exercise their rights. Only one per cent Independence Demonstrators named the SNP or Nicola Sturgeon in 1 For independence, self-determination, freedom, and/or the 80% their answer, indicating that the party and independence movement movement may not be as directly connected in the minds of grassroots activists as might 2 To show the public, media, and/or government the level of 24% be assumed by outside observers. movement support As was the case for independence 3 To support Scotland, a region, and/or a locality in Scotland 10% demonstrators, the majority of Unionist counter-demonstrators focused on the main 4 To oppose the government of the United Kingdom, such as 8% goal of their movement: two-thirds said that Westminster or the they were there to support the Union. One 5 To support Europe, the , and/or stop Brexit 6% in five counter-demonstrators said that they were there to oppose the SNP and/or Nicola 6 For personal reasons, such as to see family or meet friends 5% Sturgeon, making them significantly (p ≤ 7 To observe the event, listen to the speakers, and/or learn 4% 0.01) more focused on the SNP/Sturgeon about the issues than was the case for independence demonstrators. This result suggests that 8 To advocate on policy issues, such as climate change, poverty, 4% counter-demonstrators personalised their or immigration opposition to independence much more 9 To do what is best for children, grandchildren, family, and/or 3% than its supporters did. future generations Counter-demonstrators shared 10 Came across rally by accident, such as by hearing the music 3% several motivations with independence demonstrators. They were similarly interested 11 To network, such as by meeting like-minded people 3% in showing their level of support to the 12 To exercise rights, such as freedom of speech 2% public, advancing the interests of Scotland, doing what is best for future generations, and 13 To support the (SNP) and/or Nicola 1% observing the event. They differed from the Sturgeon pro-independence side in their attention to Unionist Demonstrators , with some in favour and some opposed to it. 1 To support the Union 67% The survey asked respondents if they were 2 To oppose the Scottish National Party (SNP) and/or Nicola 20% contacted by organisations that encouraged Sturgeon them to attend the rally and, if so, which ones. The responses point to three types of 3 To show the public, media, and/or government the level of 7% organisations that brought independence movement support supporters into the streets. First, there were 3 To support nationalism 7% coalition leaders that were integral in making demonstrations happen. These included All 5 To support Scotland, a region, and/or a locality in Scotland 3% Under One Banner (which has sometimes 5 To do what is best for children, grandchildren, family, and/or 3% been a locus of controversy within the future generations independence movement), Hope Over Fear, and the pro-independence newspaper, 5 To observe the event, listen to the speakers, and/or learn 3% , which were the most active about the issues mobilising organisations in 2019. 5 To oppose nationalism 3% Second, there were local organisations that helped local contingents travel to rallies Some respondents gave more than one reason, leading column percentages to sum to in other cities. Examples included Yes Aye more than 100 per cent. Reasons named by less than one per cent of respondents are not Rosyth, Yes Southside, and Aye Aberdeen. reported. There are fewer reasons listed for Unionists than for independence demonstrators because there were more responses from independence demonstrators (N=1,241) than A third type of organisation appealed to from pro-Union activists (N=30). supporters on the basis of narrower interests, such as social status, hobbies, or political

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Political Insight December 2020 BU.indd 22 10/11/2020 15:46 loyalties. Organisations of this type include Women for Independence, Pensioners for Independence, Yes Stones, Yes Bikers, the SNP, and others. On the Unionist side, the only organisation that mobilised counter-demonstrators was A Force For Good (AFFG). Advocating for Unionism and opposing the independence movement are at the core of AFFG’s mission. I noticed that AFFG shared leaders and key participants with the , a Protestant fraternal organisation that has been accused of stoking sectarian tensions in Northern and Scotland. While Unionist activism was modest in 2019, it is likely that it would grow substantially if another independence referendum was placed on the ballot. Glasgow, 4 May 2019. Photo by author. Outlook The strengths of the Scottish independence movement are that it has a positive focus, is relatively free of internal cleavages, and is efficiently organised. Its chief weakness is that it lacks the ability to exert much pressure on politicians outside Scotland. Prime Minster Boris Johnson pays few political costs for refusing to meet the independence movement’s demands. A classical activist perspective would advise the movement to focus on Johnson as a target and attempt to create incentives for him to listen to its demands. Unionists exhibit the opposite pattern of strengths and weaknesses. They are strong in the UK broadly but not well organised inside Scotland. If Scotland were to hold another independence referendum, Unionists would Aberdeen, 17 August 2019. Photo by author. benefit from building more organisational diversity. Marches in Edinburgh and Glasgow may be of the pandemic – potentially forcing a Independence advocates could do impressive, but still largely ‘out of sight, out leadership bid. The movement should think numerous things to strengthen their hand. of mind’ for the rest of the UK. Some activists strategically about whether it is in its interests First, they could look for ways to vividly in the movement may be loathe to take this to amplify that competition or instead focus illustrate what they believe to be the injustice approach from their belief that it surrenders on pressuring the Prime Minister. of being denied a new independence the moral high ground. But the realpolitik of Next year’s Scottish Parliament elections referendum. The Prime Minister might not this situation clearly calls for some tactics of could be crucial, assuming they are not want to develop an ‘undemocratic’ reputation this nature. postponed due to COIVD. Even after as Scottish opinion swings towards the Finally, the independence movement three successive terms in office, the SNP movement’s position. Second, advocates would be wise to be attuned to factionalism is still on course to top the polls. If the would be well advised to build stronger within the SNP. There have been high-profile nationalists command a majority in Holyrood, coalitions with aligned social movements clashes within the SNP, particularly in relation demonstrations for a second independence around the UK, such as the stop climate to the trial that saw acquitted referendum could grow even louder. change movement. of sexual assault in March 2020. Sturgeon Third, the independence movement could face internal challenges, not least from Michael T. Heaney teaches at the University might bring some actions directly to London. those who are dissatisfied with her handling of Glasgow.

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Political Insight December 2020 BU.indd 23 10/11/2020 15:46