Scotland's New Choice: Independence After Brexit
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Scotland’s new choice Independence after Brexit Edited by Eve Hepburn, Michael Keating and Nicola McEwen Scotland’s new choice Independence after Brexit Edited by Eve Hepburn, Michael Keating and Nicola McEwen eBook edition published in 2021 by Centre on Constitutional Change St John’s Land Holyrood Road EH8 8AQ www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk Introduction copyright © Eve Hepburn, Michael Keating and Nicola McEwen 2021 Copyright © of individual chapters is held by the named authors 2021 The moral right of Eve Hepburn, Michael Keating and Nicola McEwen to be identified as the editors of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 Provided it is in its original form, complete and unedited, this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the express written permission of the publisher. Illustrations by lushik via Getty Images. This edition (PDF format) ISBN 978-1-8384433-1-3 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication data: a catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Acknowledgements We are grateful to Charlie Jeffery and Ray Perman, who edited previous books in this series that explored key issues surrounding the 2014 independence referendum in Scotland (Scotland’s Decision: 16 Questions to think about for the referendum on 18 September), and the 2016 EU referendum (Britain’s Decision: Facts and Impartial Analysis for the EU referendum on 23 June 2016). Special thanks to Ray for his support in developing this book. The Centre on Constitutional Change has provided strategic and logistical support for the development of this book, and Mobo Media have designed and digitised the e-book. Our thanks to them. The authors have sought to present our analysis in an impartial way that is accessible to readers; any views expressed are their own. Books in this series Scotland’s Decision: 16 Questions to think about for the referendum on 18 September (Birlin, 2014) – https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/publications/ scotlands-decision-16-questions-think-about-referendum-18-september-0 Britain’s Decision: Facts and Impartial Analysis for the EU referendum on 23 June 2016 (The David Hume Institute, 2016) – https://www.thehunterfoundation.co.uk/ wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Britains-Decision.pdf Contents Overview of this book Each chapter, in brief 9 Introduction Scottish independence after Brexit Eve Hepburn, Michael Keating and Nicola McEwen 22 Part 1: the Process Chapter 1 Constitutional pathways to a second independence referendum Chris McCorkindale and Aileen McHarg 34 Chapter 2 Voice of the people: public participation and independence Oliver Escobar 46 Chapter 3 Referendum redux: Catalonia, Quebec and lessons for Scotland Coree Brown Swan and Daniel Cetrà 56 Chapter 4 If Scots vote for independence, what would the constitutional road to sovereign statehood look like? Sionaidh Douglas-Scott 69 CONTENTS Part 2: the Economy Chapter 5 Scotland’s economy post-independence: a letter to the new finance minister David Bell 80 Chapter 6 What are the implications of independence for public revenues and spending? Graeme Roy and David Eiser 91 Chapter 7 How would independence affect Scotland’s international trade? Filippo Fontanelli 102 Chapter 8 Currency options for an independent Scotland Jeremy Peat 116 Part 3: Politics and Society Chapter 9 Would Scotland’s policy-making and political structures change with independence? Paul Cairney 127 Chapter 10 Identity and independence: how do Scots see themselves? Michael Rosie and Nasar Meer 134 CONTENTS Chapter 11 Would independence lead to different social and equality policies? The example of disability and care Kirstein Rummery 145 Chapter 12 In what ways have the immigration issues raised by Scottish independence changed since the 2014 referendum? Sarah Kyambi 154 Chapter 13 How would an independent Scotland tackle climate change? Antje Brown 162 Part 4: International Chapter 14 An independent Scotland in the European Union: is it realistic and is it a good idea? Kirsty Hughes 172 Chapter 15 Would independence change Scotland’s approach to human rights? Kirsteen Shields 181 Chapter 16 What would an independent Scotland’s defence and security priorities be? Colin Fleming 189 CONTENTS Chapter 17 What kind of international role and influence would an independent Scotland have? Daniel Kenealy 198 Chapter 18 Independence and interdependence: re-imagining Scottish independence after Brexit Nicola McEwen 206 Part 5: Views from Elsewhere Chapter 19 An independent Scotland? What might the English think? Michael Kenny 215 Chapter 20 Small states in a big world Michael Keating 223 SCOTLAND’S NEW CHOICE OVERVIEW Overview of this book Each chapter, in brief Introduction In September 2020, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced plans for an independence referendum. Amid a rise in support for independence in opinion polls, she pledged to publish draft legislation on the timing, terms and question of a new referendum prior to the May 2021 elections. Voters in Scotland could once again be asked to reflect on the pros and cons of independence versus staying in the UK, and what this means for Scotland’s economy, society, and politics. Yet, the need to manage the Covid crisis and the challenges it presents has left little space to explore independence and its possible consequences. This collection begins to fill that space. It builds upon the success of a previous e-book produced in advance of the 2014 independence referendum. Then, as now, we do not take a stand on the question of whether or not Scotland should be an independent country. Instead, we have drawn together leading experts to examine the key issues, opportunities and challenges surrounding the prospect of independence. Much has changed since the 2014 referendum – most notably, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. By providing factual information and impartial analysis, we hope that the book can support citizens to engage in debates and make up their own minds about Scotland’s future. 9 SCOTLAND’S NEW CHOICE OVERVIEW Chapter 1 – Constitutional pathways In December 2019, the Scottish Government set out its case for a second independence referendum in the document Scotland’s Right to Choose. The document did three things. First, it set out a democratic case for holding a referendum, based on the sovereign right of the people to determine their own future, in addition to a ‘material change in circumstances’ since the 2014 referendum – that is, Brexit. Second, it made the case for a second referendum to be held on a consensual basis, and for co-operation by the UK Government in putting its legality beyond doubt. And third, it set out draft amendments to the Scotland Act to secure the necessary transfer of competence for a referendum. This chapter considers why the legality of a referendum – and, by extension, the process of becoming independent – matters. If a second independence referendum is to take place and be effective as a means of achieving independence, it is crucial that it be conducted on a proper legal footing. We also consider the UK Government’s dismissive response to the request to hold a second independence referendum, and the options that may be open to the Scottish Government to secure a lawful referendum. Chapter 2 – Public participation Public participation in the 2014 referendum was ground-breaking, not just because of the 85% turnout, but also because of the high quality of public deliberation in the two years before the ballot. Myriad conversations sprung up, up and down the country, from communities to institutions, from pubs to churches, from neighbourhoods to digital spaces, and from workplaces to kitchen tables. There was much to think about and therefore plenty to talk through. ‘Talk’ often gets a bad rap, as popular expressions go: ‘talk is cheap’, ‘talking shop’, ‘less talk more action’. But without certain forms of talk, including dialogue and deliberation, democracy cannot thrive. Talk without action may be pointless, but action without talk can be senseless. When thinking about the possibility of a second referendum, a key lesson from the first one is that public participation must be central. There must be civic spaces where people can meet across differences, seek to understand diverse perspectives, and engage in productive conversations. These spaces are different from the partisan forums created by the Yes and No campaigns. This chapter reflects on the characteristics of such civic spaces and the need to multiply them so that any future referendum conversations are not just shaped by partisan rhetoric and political 10 SCOTLAND’S NEW CHOICE OVERVIEW marketing. Placing Scotland in international context, the chapter also argues that democratic innovation is crucial to counter the global democratic recession. Chapter 3 – Lessons from abroad As demands for a second Scottish independence referendum intensify, we look abroad to learn from the experience of nations which have held second votes on independence. In this chapter, we look to Quebec, which held referendums in 1980 and 1995, and to Catalonia, which held a non-binding vote in 2014 followed by a referendum in 2017. Quebec offers valuable insights about a second referendum that was state-tolerated, while Catalonia provides lessons about a second vote that was state-opposed – and, in fact, actively repressed after being declared unconstitutional. Together, these cases capture two contrasting experiences of constitutional referenda to the state-sanctioned Scottish referendum of 2014 and offer important insights for Scotland as it discusses its constitutional future. Chapter 4 – Sovereign statehood The Scottish Government has stated that it is committed to ‘an agreed, legal process... which will be accepted as legitimate in Scotland, the UK as a whole, and by the international community’. But, even so, a Yes vote in an independence referendum would not immediately transform Scotland into an independent country. While some areas (e.g. education, health, much of the legal system) are already within Scotland’s authority, regaining Scottish sovereignty over other areas would take time.