Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, 1996-2001
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Mandaterechner Wie Groß Wird Der Bundestag?
#Mandaterechner Wie groß wird der Bundestag? Ausgabe 1 | 2021 Wie groß wird der Bundestag? Ergebnisse einer Projektionsrechnung Robert Vehrkamp WIE GROSS WIRD DER BUNDESTAG? – ERGEBNISSE EINER PROJEKTIONSRECHNUNG Impressum © Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gütersloh Juli 2021 Verantwortlich Dr. Robert Vehrkamp Christina Tillmann Inhaltliche Mitarbeit Lars Bischoff Matthias Moehl Autor Redaktionelle Unterstützung Gaëlle Beckmann Dr. Robert Vehrkamp Sandra Stratos ist Senior Advisor der Bertelsmann Stiftung im Programm „Zukunft der Demokratie“ und war Gast- Gestaltung wissenschaftler der Abteilung „Demokratie und Demo- Markus Diekmann, Bielefeld kratisierung“ am Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB). Im Juni 2021 wurde er als Sachverständiger in die Kommission des Deutschen Bundestages zur Reform des Bundeswahlrechts und zur Modernisierung der DOI 10.11586/2021065 Parlamentsarbeit berufen. [email protected] 2 WAS IST UND WAS KANN DER #MANDATERECHNER? Was ist und was kann der #Mandaterechner? Mit dem #Mandaterechner lassen sich Projek- Der #Mandaterechner erweitert damit bisher vor- tionsrechnungen zur Größe des Bundestages nach liegende Berechnungsmodelle um die Variable des der Bundestagswahl 2021 durchführen. Auf der Splittingverhaltens. Anstatt mit einer konkreten Grundlage des aktuellen Umfragetrends und in Annahme über das Splittingverhalten zu arbeiten Abhängigkeit von konkreten Annahmen über das und die Größe des Bundestages dann in Abhän- Splittingverhalten der Wähler:innen zwischen gigkeit vom Zweitstimmenergebnis zu berechnen, -
Karte Der Wahlkreise Für Die Wahl Zum 19. Deutschen Bundestag
Karte der Wahlkreise für die Wahl zum 19. Deutschen Bundestag gemäß Anlage zu § 2 Abs. 2 des Bundeswahlgesetzes, die zuletzt durch Artikel 1 des Gesetzes vom 03. Mai 2016 (BGBl. I S. 1062) geändert worden ist Nordfriesland Flensburg 1 Schleswig- Flensburg 2 5 4 Kiel 9 Rendsburg- Plön Rostock 15 Vorpommern- Eckernförde 6 Dithmarschen Rügen Ostholstein Grenze der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und der Länder Neu- 14 münster Grenze Kreise/Kreisfreie Städte 3 16 Segeberg Steinburg 8 Lübeck Nordwestmecklenburg Rostock Wahlkreisgrenze 11 17 Wahlkreisgrenze 29 Stormarn (auch Kreisgrenze) 7 Vorpommern- Cuxhaven Pinneberg Greifswald Schwerin Wittmund Herzogtum Wilhelms- Lauenburg 26 haven Bremer- 18-23 13 Stade Hamburg Mecklenburgische Saalekreis Kreisname haven 12 24 10 Seenplatte Aurich Halle (Saale) Kreisfreie Stadt Friesland 30 Emden Ludwigslust- Wesermarsch Rotenburg Parchim (Wümme) 36 Uckermark Harburg Lüneburg 72 Wahlkreisnummer Leer Ammerland Osterholz 57 27 Oldenburg (Oldenburg) Prignitz Bremen Gebietsstand der Verwaltungsgrenzen: 29.02.2016 55 35 37 54 Delmen- Lüchow- Ostprignitz- 28 horst 34 Ruppin Heidekreis Dannenberg Oldenburg Uelzen Oberhavel 25 Verden 56 58 Barnim 32 Cloppenburg 44 66 Märkisch- Diepholz Stendal Oderland Vechta 33 Celle Altmarkkreis Emsland Gifhorn Salzwedel Havelland 59 Nienburg 31 75-86 Osnabrück (Weser) Grafschaft 51 Berlin Bentheim 38 Region 43 45 Hannover Potsdam Brandenburg Frankfurt a.d.Havel 63 Wolfsburg (Oder) 134 61 41-42 Oder- Minden- 40 Spree Lübbecke Peine Braun- Börde Jerichower 60 Osnabrück Schaumburg -
Core 1..156 Hansard (PRISM::Advent3b2 7.50)
CANADA House of Commons Debates VOLUME 138 Ï NUMBER 112 Ï 2nd SESSION Ï 37th PARLIAMENT OFFICIAL REPORT (HANSARD) Thursday, June 5, 2003 Speaker: The Honourable Peter Milliken CONTENTS (Table of Contents appears at back of this issue.) All parliamentary publications are available on the ``Parliamentary Internet Parlementaire´´ at the following address: http://www.parl.gc.ca 6883 HOUSE OF COMMONS Thursday, June 5, 2003 The House met at 10 a.m. national security. As parliamentarians, we have a duty to the people of Canada to represent, to serve and to debate. As a minister I have a responsibility to inform and that is my purpose here today. Prayers We live in a world still scarred by the events of September 11, 2001. Since then, the world and Canada have taken great strides to enhance security. Terrorist networks have been disrupted, but they ROUTINE PROCEEDINGS are still capable of striking. The attacks in Bali, Saudi Arabia and Morocco are proof of this. That is why it is more important than ever Ï (1005) to ensure we do whatever we can to protect Canadians, our countries, [English] and our friends from the threat of terrorism. That is why it is as INTERPARLIAMENTARY DELEGATIONS important to understand what is going on halfway around the world as it is to understand what is happening in Canada. The Speaker: I have the honour to lay upon the table the report of the Canadian parliamentary delegation concerning its visit to Morocco and Egypt from April 13 to 23, 2003. Canada is not immune from the threat of terrorism. -
Bundestagswahl 2017
B UU NN DD EE SS TT AA GG SS WW AA HH LL B A M 2 4 . S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 7 Endgültige Ergebnisse für den Kreis Borken ● Ergebnisse nach Wahlkreisen ● Ergebnisse für den Kreis Borken insgesamt ● Ergebnisse nach Städten und Gemeinden im Kreis Borken - 2 - BUNDESTAGSWAHL 2017 HERAUSGEBER: KREIS BORKEN – DER LANDRAT – BURLOER STR. 93 46325 BORKEN INTERNET: WWW.KREIS-BORKEN.DE REDAKTION: 15 – STABSSTELLE BEARBEITUNG: MARKUS WYDERA TELEFON: 02861/ 82 2114 TELEFAX: 02861 / 82 271 2114 E-MAIL: [email protected] ZIMMER: 2114 (FLUR 1A) DRUCK: EIGENDRUCK BORKEN IM OKTOBER 2017 - 3 - BUNDESTAGSWAHL 2017 BUNDESTAGSWAHL AM 24. SEPTEMBER 2017 INHALTSVERZEICHNIS INHALT SEITE KARTE DER BUNDESTAGSWAHLKREISE 124 UND 126 ............................................................. 4 BEVÖLKERUNGSSTRUKTUR IN DEN STÄDTEN UND GEMEINDEN DES KREISES BORKEN IN DEN WAHLKREISEN 124 UND 126 .................................................................................................. 5 ERGEBNISSE DER BUNDESTAGSWAHL AM 24. SEPTEMBER 2017 NACH WAHLKREISEN TABELLE: ERSTSTIMMEN IN DEN WAHLKREISEN 124 UND 126 UND VERGLEICHSERGEBNISSE GRAFIKEN: DER BUNDESTAGSWAHL 2013 ............................................................................................................ 6-7 TABELLEN: ZWEITSTIMMEN IN DEN WAHLKREISEN UND VERGLEICHSERGEBNISSE DER BUNDESTAGSWAHL 2013 WAHLKREIS 124 (STEINFURT I - BORKEN I) ....................................................................... 8 WAHLKREIS 126 (BORKEN II) ........................................................................................... -
Who Gains from Apparentments Under D'hondt?
CIS Working Paper No 48, 2009 Published by the Center for Comparative and International Studies (ETH Zurich and University of Zurich) Who gains from apparentments under D’Hondt? Dr. Daniel Bochsler University of Zurich Universität Zürich Who gains from apparentments under D’Hondt? Daniel Bochsler post-doctoral research fellow Center for Comparative and International Studies Universität Zürich Seilergraben 53 CH-8001 Zürich Switzerland Centre for the Study of Imperfections in Democracies Central European University Nador utca 9 H-1051 Budapest Hungary [email protected] phone: +41 44 634 50 28 http://www.bochsler.eu Acknowledgements I am in dept to Sebastian Maier, Friedrich Pukelsheim, Peter Leutgäb, Hanspeter Kriesi, and Alex Fischer, who provided very insightful comments on earlier versions of this paper. Manuscript Who gains from apparentments under D’Hondt? Apparentments – or coalitions of several electoral lists – are a widely neglected aspect of the study of proportional electoral systems. This paper proposes a formal model that explains the benefits political parties derive from apparentments, based on their alliance strategies and relative size. In doing so, it reveals that apparentments are most beneficial for highly fractionalised political blocs. However, it also emerges that large parties stand to gain much more from apparentments than small parties do. Because of this, small parties are likely to join in apparentments with other small parties, excluding large parties where possible. These arguments are tested empirically, using a new dataset from the Swiss national parliamentary elections covering a period from 1995 to 2007. Keywords: Electoral systems; apparentments; mechanical effect; PR; D’Hondt. Apparentments, a neglected feature of electoral systems Seat allocation rules in proportional representation (PR) systems have been subject to widespread political debate, and one particularly under-analysed subject in this area is list apparentments. -
Wahlkreise Nach Parteien Und Zweitstimmenanteil
Endgültiges Ergebnis der Bundestagswahl 2009 9 Wahlkreise nach Parteien und Zweitstimmenanteil Lfd. Wahlkreis Länder- Zweitstimmen in % Nr. kennzeichen 2009 2005 SPD 001 124 Gelsenkirchen NW 42,0 53,8 002 117 Duisburg II NW 40,7 55,3 003 142 Herne - Bochum II NW 40,2 54,0 004 118 Oberhausen - Wesel III NW 39,4 53,9 005 120 Essen II NW 39,0 51,5 006 025 Aurich - Emden NI 38,8 55,9 007 145 Unna I NW 37,6 50,3 008 126 Bottrop - Recklinghausen III NW 37,1 50,4 009 123 Recklinghausen II NW 36,8 51,4 010 141 Bochum I NW 36,3 49,2 011 116 Duisburg I NW 36,3 49,9 012 144 Dortmund II NW 35,6 50,8 013 119 Mülheim - Essen I NW 35,6 47,6 014 122 Recklinghausen I NW 35,5 50,7 015 140 Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis II NW 34,9 47,2 016 136 Lippe I NW 34,5 43,1 017 170 Werra-Meißner - Hersfeld-Rotenburg HE 34,4 45,3 018 050 Salzgitter - Wolfenbüttel NI 34,2 47,7 019 171 Schwalm-Eder HE 33,9 45,0 020 146 Hamm - Unna II NW 33,4 47,9 021 047 Hameln-Pyrmont - Holzminden NI 33,4 47,4 022 168 Waldeck HE 33,0 44,1 023 053 Goslar - Northeim - Osterode NI 33,0 45,9 024 143 Dortmund I NW 33,0 48,2 025 041 Nienburg II - Schaumburg NI 33,0 47,0 026 134 Herford - Minden-Lübbecke II NW 32,9 40,7 027 139 Hagen - Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis I NW 32,9 45,8 028 049 Hildesheim NI 32,9 47,0 029 046 Gifhorn - Peine NI 32,9 46,4 030 048 Hannover-Land II NI 32,8 46,8 Endgültiges Ergebnis der Bundestagswahl 2009 9 Wahlkreise nach Parteien und Zweitstimmenanteil Lfd. -
Who Gains from Apparentments Under D'hondt?
Manuscript Who gains from apparentments under D’Hondt? Daniel Bochsler, Centre for the Study of Imperfections in Democracies (DISC), Central European University, [email protected] - www.bochsler.eu 13 November 2009 Apparentments – or coalitions of several electoral lists – are a widely neglected aspect of the study of proportional electoral systems. This paper proposes a formal model that explains the benefits political parties derive from apparentments, based on their alliance strategies and relative size. In doing so, it reveals that apparentments are most beneficial for highly fractionalised political blocs. However, it also emerges that large parties stand to gain much more from apparentments than small parties do. Because of this, small parties are likely to join in apparentments with other small parties, excluding large parties where possible. These arguments are tested empirically, using a new dataset from the Swiss national parliamentary elections covering a period from 1995 to 2007. Keywords: Electoral systems; apparentments; mechanical effect; PR; D’Hondt. Apparentments, a neglected feature of electoral systems* Seat allocation rules in proportional representation (PR) systems have been subject to widespread political debate, and one particularly under-analysed subject in this area is list apparentments. Theoretical work and studies based on simulation models has shown that the division allocation rule with rounding down (the most frequently applied PR allocation rule, referred to as the D’Hondt or Jefferson method) strongly favours large parties over small parties (see, among many others, Pennisi, 1998; Elklit, 2007; Schuster, Pukelsheim, Drton, and Draper, 2003). Other common seat allocation rules, such as Hamilton’s or Hare/Niemayer’s largest remainder method, or the Sainte- Laguë/Webster divisor method with standard rounding are unbiased with regards to party size. -
And Long-Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial
Supporting Information: How Lasting is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short- and Long-term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy Michael M. Bechtel { ETH Zurich Jens Hainmueller { Massachusetts Institute of Technology This version: May 2011 Abstract This documents provides additional information referenced in the main paper. Michael M. Bechtel is Postdoctoral Researcher, ETH Zurich, Center for Comparative and International Studies, Haldeneggsteig 4, IFW C45.2, CH-8092 Zurich. E-mail: [email protected]. Jens Hainmueller is Assistant Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Mas- sachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139. E-mail: [email protected]. I. Potential Alternative Explanation for High Electoral Returns in Affected Regions Some have pointed out that the SPD's victory in 2002 may have simply resulted from Gerhard Schr¨oder(SPD) being much more popular than his political opponent Edmund Stoiber and not from the incumbent's massive and swift policy response to the Elbe flooding. For this argument to be valid we should see a differential reaction to the announcement of Stoiber's candidacy in affected and control regions. We use state-level information on the popularity of chancellor Schr¨oderfrom the Forsa survey data to explore the validity of this argument. Figure 2 plots monthly Schr¨oder'sapproval ratings in affected and unaffected states in 2002. Figure 1: Popularity Ratings of Gerhard Schr¨oderand Flood Onset 60 55 50 45 Schroeder Popularity in % 40 35 2002m1 2002m3 2002m5 2002m7 2002m9 2002m2 2002m4 2002m6 2002m8 Treated states (>10% of districts affected) Controls Election Flood Note: Percent of voters that intend to vote for Gerhard Schr¨oderwith .90 confidence envelopes. -
The Success of an Ethnic Political Party: a Case Study of Arab Political Parties in Israel
University of Mississippi eGrove Honors College (Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors Theses Honors College) 2014 The Success of an Ethnic Political Party: A Case Study of Arab Political Parties in Israel Samira Abunemeh University of Mississippi. Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors College Follow this and additional works at: https://egrove.olemiss.edu/hon_thesis Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Abunemeh, Samira, "The Success of an Ethnic Political Party: A Case Study of Arab Political Parties in Israel" (2014). Honors Theses. 816. https://egrove.olemiss.edu/hon_thesis/816 This Undergraduate Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Honors College (Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors College) at eGrove. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of eGrove. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Success of an Ethnic Political Party: A Case Study of Arab Political Parties in Israel ©2014 By Samira N. Abunemeh A thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for completion Of the Bachelor of Arts degree in International Studies Croft Institute for International Studies Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors College The University of Mississippi University, Mississippi May 2014 Approved: Dr. Miguel Centellas Reader: Dr. Kees Gispen Reader: Dr. Vivian Ibrahim i Abstract The Success of an Ethnic Political Party: A Case Study of Arab Political Parties in Israel Israeli Arab political parties are observed to determine if these ethnic political parties are successful in Israel. A brief explanation of four Israeli Arab political parties, Hadash, Arab Democratic Party, Balad, and United Arab List, is given as well as a brief description of Israeli history and the Israeli political system. -
Gesundheitsausschuss Bundestag
Vorname Nachname @bundestag.de [email protected] Mailadresse alternativ Partei Rolle Wahlkreis Wahlkreis Mailadresse alternativ Rudolf Henke [email protected] [email protected] CDU/CSU Wahlkreis 087: Aachen I [email protected] Michael Hennrich [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] CDU/CSU Obmann Wahlkreis 262: Nürtingen [email protected] Erich Irlstorfer [email protected] [email protected] CDU/CSU Wahlkreis 214: Freising [email protected] Georg Kippels [email protected] [email protected] CDU/CSU Wahlkreis 5 Rhein-Erft-Kreis I [email protected] Alexander Krauss [email protected] [email protected] CDU/CSU Wahlkreis 15 Erzgebirge III [email protected] Roy Kühne [email protected] [email protected] CDU/CSU Wahlkreis 52 Goslar Northeim [email protected] Karin Maag [email protected] [email protected] CDU/CSU Wahlkreis 259 Stuttgart II [email protected] Dietrich Monstadt [email protected] [email protected] CDU/CSU Wahlkreis 12 Schwerin [email protected] - Parchim I - Nordwestmecklenburg I Stephan Pilsinger [email protected] [email protected] CDU/CSU Wahlkreis 220 München-West/[email protected] Lothar Riebsamen [email protected] [email protected] -
Television and the Cold War in the German Democratic Republic
0/-*/&4637&: *ODPMMBCPSBUJPOXJUI6OHMVFJU XFIBWFTFUVQBTVSWFZ POMZUFORVFTUJPOT UP MFBSONPSFBCPVUIPXPQFOBDDFTTFCPPLTBSFEJTDPWFSFEBOEVTFE 8FSFBMMZWBMVFZPVSQBSUJDJQBUJPOQMFBTFUBLFQBSU $-*$,)&3& "OFMFDUSPOJDWFSTJPOPGUIJTCPPLJTGSFFMZBWBJMBCMF UIBOLTUP UIFTVQQPSUPGMJCSBSJFTXPSLJOHXJUI,OPXMFEHF6OMBUDIFE ,6JTBDPMMBCPSBUJWFJOJUJBUJWFEFTJHOFEUPNBLFIJHIRVBMJUZ CPPLT0QFO"DDFTTGPSUIFQVCMJDHPPE Revised Pages Envisioning Socialism Revised Pages Revised Pages Envisioning Socialism Television and the Cold War in the German Democratic Republic Heather L. Gumbert The University of Michigan Press Ann Arbor Revised Pages Copyright © by Heather L. Gumbert 2014 All rights reserved This book may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, including illustrations, in any form (be- yond that copying permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law and except by reviewers for the public press), without written permission from the publisher. Published in the United States of America by The University of Michigan Press Manufactured in the United States of America c Printed on acid- free paper 2017 2016 2015 2014 5 4 3 2 A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978– 0- 472– 11919– 6 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978– 0- 472– 12002– 4 (e- book) Revised Pages For my parents Revised Pages Revised Pages Contents Acknowledgments ix Abbreviations xi Introduction 1 1 Cold War Signals: Television Technology in the GDR 14 2 Inventing Television Programming in the GDR 36 3 The Revolution Wasn’t Televised: Political Discipline Confronts Live Television in 1956 60 4 Mediating the Berlin Wall: Television in August 1961 81 5 Coercion and Consent in Television Broadcasting: The Consequences of August 1961 105 6 Reaching Consensus on Television 135 Conclusion 158 Notes 165 Bibliography 217 Index 231 Revised Pages Revised Pages Acknowledgments This work is the product of more years than I would like to admit. -
Cause Or Consequence? the Alternative for Germany and Attitudes Toward Migration Policy
Cause or Consequence? The Alternative for Germany and Attitudes toward Migration Policy Hannah M. Alarian Political Science, University of Florida Abstract: Does a far-right electoral victory change mainstream support for migration policy? Although we know how migration can shape support for the far-right, we know little about the inverse. This article addresses this ques- tion, exploring whether an Alternative for Germany (AfD) candidate’s election changes non-far-right voter attitudes toward migration policies. In combining the German Longitudinal Election Study Short-Term Campaign panel with fed- eral electoral returns, I find the AfD’s 2017 success significantly altered migra- tion attitudes. Specifically, policy support for immigration and asylum declined precipitously where an AfD candidate won the plurality of first votes. Yet these voters were also more likely to support multicultural policies for current immi- grants. Successful AfD candidates therefore appear to enable both an endorse- ment of xenophobic rhetoric and a rejection of cultural assimilation. Keywords: elections, far-right populism, Germany, migration, public opinion Few policies are as connected to the rise of the far right as migration. Even in Germany where nationalistic politics are highly stigmatized, the far-right, Alternative for Germany (AfD) has proven successful in linking itself with nativist migration policies. This change in focus for the AfD from Euroscepti- cism to nationalism came at the height of the 2015 refugee crisis, a message that resonated with traditional mainstream and, perhaps surprisingly, immigrant voters.1 For many of these voters, the 2017 election provided a direct referen- dum on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s stance on refugee resettlement,2 espe- cially within eastern districts where demonstrations against immigrants and asylum seekers continued to erupt.3 Thus, by stoking mass anxiety over migra- tion and leaving its Eurosceptic roots behind, the AfD sought a new strategy to secure its place on the national stage in the 2017 Bundestag election.