June 2017 Breaking Down Democracy: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians by Arch Puddington CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Introduction: Modern Authoritarians: Origins, Anatomy, Outlook 5 Chapters 1. Validating Autocracy through the Ballot 10 2. Propaganda at Home and Abroad 15 3. The Enemy Within: Civil Society at Bay 22 4. The Ministry of Truth in Peace and War 29 5. The Rise of ‘Illiberal Democracy’ 35 6. Flacks and Friends 41 7. Bullying the Neighbors: Frozen Conflicts, the Near Abroad, and Other Innovations 47 8. Back to the Future 52 Conclusion: Authoritarianism Comes Calling 57 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report emerged from a presentation on the state of global freedom conducted by the author and David J. Kramer, former president of Freedom House. The major source of data and analysis is Freedom in the World, the report on political rights and civil liberties published annually by Freedom House. The author wishes to thank the Freedom House analysis staff and the many scholars who have participated in Freedom House assessments of global democracy. The author also extends special thanks to Elen Aghekyan, Tyler Roylance, Alexandra Cain, Danielle Recanati, Amy Slipowitz, Alan Williams, Christopher Walker, Bret Nelson, Michael Johnson, Rebeka Foley, Zselyke Csaky, Sarah Repucci, Vanessa Tucker, Robert Ruby, and Daniel Calingaert. THE AUTHOR Arch Puddington is Distinguished Scholar for Democracy Studies at Freedom House and a co-editor of Freedom in the World. ON THE COVER Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing, 2016. Lintao Zhang/Getty Images Executive Summary Breaking Down Democracy: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians by Arch Puddington The 21st century has been marked by a resurgence of authoritarian rule that has proved resilient despite economic fragility and occasional popular resistance. Modern authoritarianism has succeeded, where previous totalitarian systems failed, due to refined and nuanced strategies of repression, the exploitation of open societies, and the spread of illiberal policies in democratic countries themselves. The leaders of today’s authoritarian systems devote full- time attention to the challenge of crippling the opposition without annihilating it, and flouting the rule of law while maintaining a plausible veneer of order, legitimacy, and prosperity. Central to the modern authoritarian strategy is the independent existence (as long as it does not pursue capture of institutions that undergird political plural- political change), citizens can travel around the coun- ism. The goal is to dominate not only the executive try or abroad with only occasional interference, and and legislative branches, but also the media, the private enterprise can flourish (albeit with rampant judiciary, civil society, the commanding heights of the corruption and cronyism). economy, and the security forces. With these institu- tions under the effective if not absolute control of an This study explains how modern authoritarianism de- incumbent leader, changes in government through fair fends and propagates itself, as regimes from different and honest elections become all but impossible. regions and with diverse socioeconomic foundations copy and borrow techniques of political control. Unlike Soviet-style communism, modern authoritari- Among its major findings: anism is not animated by an overarching ideology or the messianic notion of an ideal future society. Nor • Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, has do today’s autocrats seek totalitarian control over played an outsized role in the development of people’s everyday lives, movements, or thoughts. modern authoritarian systems. This is particu- The media are more diverse and entertaining under larly true in the areas of media control, propa- modern authoritarianism, civil society can enjoy an ganda, the smothering of civil society, and the www.freedomhouse.org 1 BREAKING DOWN DEMOCRACY: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians MAJOR DECLINES FOR INFLUENTIAL COUNTRIES OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS 0 Russia Turkey Bahrain Ukraine Ecuador Ethiopia Hungary Venezuela -5 Azerbaijan Afghanistan -10 -10 -12 -12 -12 -15 -16 -17 -17 -20 -21 Change in Freedom the World Aggregate Score, 2007-2016 -25 -25 -28 -30 weakening of political pluralism. Russia has also and practically all of the authoritarian states in moved aggressively against neighboring states the Middle East. where democratic institutions have emerged or where democratic movements have succeeded • The toxic combination of unfair elections and in ousting corrupt authoritarian leaders. crude majoritarianism is spreading from modern authoritarian regimes to illiberal leaders in what • The rewriting of history for political purposes is are still partly democratic countries. Increasing- common among modern authoritarians. Again, ly, populist politicians—once in office—claim Russia has taken the lead, with the state’s asser- the right to suppress the media, civil society, tion of authority over history textbooks and the and other democratic institutions by citing process, encouraged by Putin, of reassessing support from a majority of voters. The resulting the historical role of Joseph Stalin. changes make it more difficult for the opposi- tion to compete in future elections and can pave • The hiring of political consultants and lobbyists the way for a new authoritarian regime. from democratic countries to represent the interests of autocracies is a growing phenome- • An expanding cadre of politicians in democ- non. China is clearly in the vanguard, with multi- racies are eager to emulate or cooperate with ple representatives working for the state and for authoritarian rulers. European parties of the large economic entities closely tied to the state. nationalistic right and anticapitalist left have But there are also K Street representatives for expressed admiration for Putin and aligned Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Ethiopia, their policy goals with his. Others have praised 2 Freedom House EVERY INDICATOR HAS DECLINED OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS Electoral Pluralism and Functioning of Expression and Association and Personal and Process* Participation Government* Belief Assembly* Rule of Law Individual Rights 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Change in Score, 2007-2016 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 *Denotes indicators scored on a 12-point scale. All others are scored on a 16-point scale. illiberal governments in countries like Hungary • Modern authoritarians are working to revalidate for their rejection of international democratic the concept of the leader-for-life. One of the standards in favor of perceived national inter- seeming gains of the postcommunist era was ests. Even when there is no direct collaboration, the understanding that some form of term limits such behavior benefits authoritarian powers by should be imposed to prevent incumbents from breaking down the unity and solidarity of the consolidating power into a dictatorship. In re- democratic world. cent years, however, a number of countries have adjusted their constitutions to ease, eliminate, • There has been a rise in authoritarian inter- or circumvent executive term limits. The result nationalism. Authoritarian powers form loose has been a resurgence of potential leaders-for- but effective alliances to block criticism at the life from Latin America to Eurasia. United Nations and regional organizations like the Organization for Security and Co-operation • While more subtle and calibrated methods of re- in Europe and the Organization of American pression are the defining feature of modern au- States, and to defend embattled allies like Syria’s thoritarianism, the past few years have featured Bashar al-Assad. There is also growing replica- a reemergence of older tactics that undermine tion of what might be called authoritarian best the illusions of pluralism and openness as well practices, vividly on display in the new Chinese as integration with the global economy. Thus law on nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) Moscow has pursued its military intervention in and efforts by Russia and others to learn from Ukraine despite economic sanctions and over- China’s experience in internet censorship. seen the assassination of opposition figures; www.freedomhouse.org 3 BREAKING DOWN DEMOCRACY: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians Beijing has revived the practice of coerced pub- both taken advantage of democracies’ commitment to lic “confessions” and escalated its surveillance freedom of expression and delivered infusions of pro- of the Tibetan and Uighur minorities to totalitar- paganda and disinformation. Moscow has effectively ian levels; and Azerbaijan has made the Aliyev prevented foreign broadcasting stations from reach- family’s monopoly on political power painfully ing Russian audiences even as it steadily expands the obvious with the appointment of the president’s reach of its own mouthpieces, the television channel wife as “first vice president.” RT and the news service Sputnik. China blocks the websites of mainstream foreign media while en- • Modern authoritarian systems are employing couraging its corporations to purchase influence in these blunter methods in a context of increased popular culture abroad through control of Hollywood economic fragility. Venezuela is already in the studios. Similar combinations of obstruction at home process of political and economic disintegra- and interference abroad can be seen in sectors in- tion. Other states that rely on energy exports cluding