CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CENT RE

Egypt’s Parliamentary Elections: The First Steps Toward a New Nation

November 2011 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

Linda Lavender This document discusses the upcoming Egyptian elections and the Team Leader, Mediterranean Basin new electoral process. Related information is available at [email protected] www.cimicweb.org. Hyperlinks to source material are highlighted

in blue and underlined in the text. Melodee M. Baines Mediterranean Knowledge Manager [email protected]

n article by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) characterised ’s political spectrum as both complicated and in flux. Political parties are complex and defy fault lines. In addition to A over 50 political parties currently registered for the upcoming elections, other political actors within Egypt seek to gain influence in the formation of a new government. CEIP reports that by many accounts, it is unclear whether a democratic government can emerge from Egypt’s highly pluralistic political landscape. This report outlines the various actors within Egypt’s current political climate. Additionally, the report briefly addresses the electoral process unfolding in Egypt.

The first round of parliamentary elections for the People’s Assembly, the lower house of the bicameral legislature, is scheduled for 28 November. Two additional rounds of elections for the People’s Assembly will follow (one in December and one in January 2012). Elections for the Shura Council, the upper house of the bicameral legislature, will also take place over three rounds, beginning in January 2012.

Parliamentary Election Schedule (planned) by District

People’s Assembly Elections Shura Council Elections (Lower House) (Upper House) 28 November 14 December 03 January 29 January 14 February 04 March 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 Cairo, Fayoum, Giza, Beni Suef, Minya, Cairo, Fayoum, Giza, Beni Minya, Port Said, Menoufiya, Qalioubiya, Port Said, Suef, Qalioubiya, Damietta, Sharqiya, Gharbiya, Damietta, Menoufiya, Gharbiya, Alexandria, Kafr Ismailiya, Suez, Daqahliya, Alexandria, Sharqiya, Daqahliya, El-Sheikh, Beheira, Sohag, North Sinai, Kafr El-Sheikh, Ismailiya, Suez, North Sinai, Assiut, Luxor, Aswan South Sinai, Assiut, Luxor, Beheira, Sohag, South Sinai, Red Sea Marsa Matrouh, Red Sea Aswan Marsa Matrouh, Qena, New Qena, New Valley Valley Run-off elections for the PA will be held on 05 December Run-off elections for the Shura Council will be held on 05 2011, 21 December 2011 and 10 January 2012 respectively February, 21 February and 11 March 2012 respectively Source: IFES Briefing Paper

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Thematic Report : Egypt’s Parliamentary Elections

Current Context

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has controlled Egypt since Hosni Mubarak’s resignation on February 2011. The forming of the military government was considered temporary at the time and rule is planned to be handed back to civilians with the completion of a series of elections scheduled to begin on 28 November 2011. Recently SCAF confirmed that emergency law1, which was initially set to expire in November 2011, will continue through June 2012, reports Ahram. The period of military rule will last significantly longer than originally announced and is now expected to end by late 2012 or early 2013.

According to the International Source: IFES Briefing Paper, November 2011 Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), the protracted timeline is the result of SCAF’s outlined election process, which includes parliamentary elections along with the drafting and approval of Egypt’s constitution, all of which will be time consuming. Only after the approval of the constitution will presidential elections be held. Within the Egyptian system of governance, the President is the head of the state.

In the wake of the events of Tahrir Square and the ousting of Hosni Mubarak, SCAF has been a subject of growing criticism in Egypt, particularly in light of alleged crackdowns on protestors, as well as civilian deaths resulting from police brutality. In both the international and national communities there is collective uncertainty over what the future holds for Egypt. Arab News reports that much of this concern stems from the lack of a definitive timeline for the handover of power from the interim military rulers to the new political reality in Egypt.

The delay in elections is further evidence that the military is in no hurry to hand over power and that it is interested in influencing the outcome of elections, reports the CEIP. Reuters reports that Fitch Ratings, a renowned global rating agency, believes Egypt cannot begin its long-term recovery until there is more certainty about its political future. Delays in the political transition are causing concern over Egypt’s economic recovery from the revolution. Global Post reports that some progressive political groups have already begun discussing a second revolution.

Election System Post-Revolution

Presidential Elections SCAF has issued several constitutional declarations, many of which contradict earlier guarantees and assurances to the Egyptian people, states Ahram. According to CEIP, a SCAF-issued declaration in March 2011 stated that presidential elections would occur following parliamentary elections, in advance of the drafting of a new national charter2. Then, according to Ahram, a late-March announcement by SCAF stated that presidential elections would be delayed further. An October announcement by SCAF indicates that after the completion of parliamentary elections in March 2012, SCAF can take up to six months to form a provisional assembly tasked with drafting a

1 Emergency law was first instituted by Mubarak over 30 years ago but was recently re-activated by SCAF in the aftermath of the 09 September 2011 clashes at the Israeli Embassy and the Giza Security Directorate Headquarters, according to Ahram 2 For further information on constitutional reform in the Mediterranean region see the CFC report “Constitutional Reform in North Africa” July 2011.

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new constitution. The Ahram article indicates that an additional six months will then be given for assembly members to draft the constitution. The draft constitution will then be put before a popular referendum for approval. If the new charter is approved by the public, the process of accepting presidential candidacies will begin, reports Ahram. This, however, means that presidential elections could be held as late as April 2013

Lower House—People’s Assembly According to al Jazeera, tensions have been high within the Egyptian public, especially among political activists, since SCAF assumed power. Now, as the first of the round of parliamentary elections is slated to begin on 28 November, many activists are anxious to move forward. Official campaigning for the first round of elections began on 02 November, but according to al Masry al Youm many candidates are waiting until after Eid al Adha3 celebrations on 07 November to undertake serious campaign efforts. The parliamentary elections will be staggered over three stages and are expected to last for approximately three and one half months.

The United Nations’ Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN) reports that Egypt’s parliamentary system is a mixed electoral system. In the post-revolution People’s Assembly there are at total of 498 seats (reduced from 504). According to the IFES, SCAF amended electoral laws in late September 2011, which significantly reshaped the electoral system and process. The electoral districts have been redrawn to reflect the new system. The reaction to SCAF’s amendments was negative, as some felt that it was not reflective of earlier agreements SCAF made regarding elections. Also, few Egyptians understand the new, complex election system or even know what the plethora of parties represent, notes the IRIN.

People’s Assembly Shura Council

4 Total Assembly 498 Seats 249 Seats

Elected by PR System 332 120

Elected by Majoritarian System 166 60

Larger Districts 46 30 (4 to 12 members each) Smaller Districts 83 30 (2 members each)

For the People’s Assembly, according to IRIN, one-third of the districts are considered to be small districts of only two seats each. Based on the late-coming amendments mentioned above, the seats in the small districts are elected based on the majoritarian or first-past-the-post system5 that Egypt has historically used. In these districts, the law requires that one candidate come from among the working classes,6 while the other candidate may be classified as a “professional”. The representation from the remaining two-thirds of the districts ranges from four to 12 seats

3 Muslim holiday that honours Abraham’s sacrifice of Ismael before God. 4 180 seats will be contested while 90 seats will be appointed by SCAF. 5 A name for the electoral system where the person winning the most votes in a constituency is elected. 6 Within each two-member district, one of the candidates must be a classified as a worker or a farmer, according to IFES.

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each. These seats will be elected through the proportional representation (PR) list system.7 According to IFES, common practice recommends the PR list system as the best method to facilitate the election of minority or female candidates. However, in Egypt, the IFES notes, the decision not to place minority and female candidates at the top of PR lists will impact their representation in the new government.

Political Parties

In terms of party affiliation or lack thereof, new legislation governs how seats are to be allocated based on party membership or independent status. Of the 498 seats, the seats of the small, 2-seat districts are reserved for independent candidates (IC) in order to give non-party members an equal chance. Some fear this will benefit local prominent citizens and former members of Mubarak’s now disbanded National Democratic Party (NDP), who are running as independents. But political parties can field candidates against them as independents, reports IRIN. This rule is among the most controversial articles SCAF passed. The rule requires that an individual running in a small district may not be a member of a political party and if elected, may not join a political party while in parliament, reports IFES. Political parties argued that the individual candidacy system would allow corrupt businessmen and officials from the Mubarak regime to return to parliament. IFES states that the proposed voting system is unlikely to reflect the vote fragmentation of the electorate.

Conducted Polling FJP Wafd Youth FEP Nour ESDP Adl Wasat Ex-

or Org/ NDP Published Client

March IPI 12% 23% ------10% 2011

June IPI 12% 12% - 1% 3% - 1% 2% 6% 2011 June Gallup 15% 9% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5% 10% 2011 July Al Jazeera 46% n/a n/a n/a 27% n/a 5% 6% n/a 2011 July Newsweek/ 17% 11% - 7% - n/a 5% 1% 7% 2011 Daily Beast August APSSC/ 31.5% 14.8% 17.2% 7.5% 6.0% 5.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.4% 2011 DEDI October APSSC/ 39.0% 20.0% 2.0% 6.0% 6.8% 0.6% 4.7% 1.0% 2.8% 2011 DEDI Source: 2nd National Voter Survey in Egypt by Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS)

Glossary of Parties

FJP Al-Hurriyya wa al-‘Adala (Freedom and ) Al Wafd Delegation Party Youth refers to parties with primarily youth membership or focused on youth FEP Al-Masriyeen al-Ahrrar () Al Nour Light Party ESDP Al-Masry al-Dimuqrati al-Igtima’i (Egyptian Social Democratic Party) Al Adl Justice Party Wasat Center Party NDP National Democratic Party (Mubarak’s party)

7 PR means that the number of seats won by a party or group of candidates is proportional to the number of votes received.

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According to IRIN, there are 50 political parties that have forwarded 590 candidate lists for the People’s Assembly and 272 candidate lists for the Shura Council. Half of the recognised parties were created after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak. Political parties can be divided into four basic categories: Islamist, leftist, liberal and revolutionary youth parties. Equally important in the upcoming elections are the candidates who will run as independent candidates without formal party affiliation. IRIN states that approximately 6,591 independents will run for the 166 seats in the People’s Assembly and 2,036 will compete for 60 seats in the Shura Council. Below is a list of surveys conducted in Egypt that predicts the decision of Egyptians in the upcoming elections8:

Islamist and Religiously Oriented Parties According to IRIN, Islamist parties have greatly benefited from the revolution. Under Mubarak, Islamist parties were banned and party members jailed. Ocnus reports that there are currently 14 Islamist parties functioning in the country. The well-known Muslim Brotherhood is an Islamist party.9

The Muslim Brotherhood movement established its own Freedom and Justice Party (see FJP in chart above). The party calls for sharia law to be applied all aspects of life and community. More radical than the Muslim Brotherhood, according to IRIN, are the Salafists who do not believe that Muslims need Western democracy.

Salafists argue that there is more equality and guarantees for minorities in Islam than Western democracy. Egypt currently has seven Salafist parties. The newest is the Construction and Development Party, founded by the Jamaat Islamia Organisation. Other Salafist parties include Al Islah, Al Nour (see chart above), Al Adalah, Al Asalah, and Al Fadilah.

Leftist Parties Socialist parties have existed in Egypt for decades. IRIN states these parties underscore the importance of social justice and point to the injustices of a market-based economy. According to Ahram, five political parties united in May 2011 to form the Socialist Popular Alliance Party (formerly the Coalition of Socialist Forces). The new coalition is composed of the Social Party of Egypt, the Democratic Labour Party, the Popular Socialist Coalition Party, Egypt Communist Part and Revolutionary Socialism. Their objective was to bring greater political strength to the current political landscape.

Parties such as the Unionist Progressive, Nasserite, Free Constitutional Social, Karama and Egypt’s Arab Socialist Party have existed for years, but before 25 January 2011 their activities were greatly restricted. Leftist parties are not very popular in Egypt despite widespread poverty, reports IRIN.

Liberal Parties Al Wafd (see chart above) is an example of a liberal party – and one of the oldest in the country. Other parties such as the Democratic Front, Tomorrow, and Young encourage private ownership and a private- sector focused economy. They advocate for government that provides minimal involvement in economic activities. Many founders of these parties are western-educated and strive to emulate western lines of thought. Among all the liberal parties, al Wafd is the most popular and has challenged Mubarak’s NDP in almost all parliamentary elections over the past 30 years.

Youth Parties The thousands of young people who participated in the revolution that toppled Mubarak’s regime have now organised into political parties and at least one coalition called “Revolutionary Youth Coalition”. IRIN reports that there are approximately ten youth parties. These parties include the Democratic Generation Party, the Free Egyptians Party, Modern Egypt Party, Egypt the Revolution Party, Egyptian Revolution Party, the Guardians of the Revolution Party and Freedom Party. Well-educated and ambitious, these leaders are new to Egypt’s political life, but say they want to take part in shaping the future.

8 See also the Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute released survey, 2011 9 Refer to CFC Mediterranean Resource Desk report “The Muslim Brotherhood” to be released in December 2011.

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Election Oversight

According to al Masry al Youm, the upcoming elections will require 9,000 judges to supervise the process. IRIN reports that some politicians and political activists have called for the replacement of Mubarak-appointed judges prior to the upcoming elections in an effort to ensure a transparent election process. In July 2011, the Christian Science Monitor (CSM) reported that SCAF would not permit international elections observers to monitor elections. The decision continues to concern many rights activists over the credibility of the impending electoral process.

Drafting the New Constitution

It was widely understood until 02 November that one of the important roles of the newly elected members of parliament (MPs) would be to draft a new constitution for Egypt. However, according to Ahram the latest government communiqué states that the constituent assembly will be made up of majority members chosen by SCAF and not elected by parliament as previously promised by the army. According to the government's latest version of the proposed roadmap to the constitution, 80 out of 100 proposed members on the constituent assembly will be chosen by the SCAF and only 20 will be chosen from the newly elected parliament.

Conclusion

An al Jazeera Centre for Studies article asserts that Egyptians are currently in need of an unambiguous resolution regarding the political status of the military establishment and the role the military will play in the future affairs of the state. The assertion is grounded in the perceived need to safeguard the anticipated civilian character of the future government and to prevent the military from expanding its footprint into the political leadership of the country. According to the article, this can only be achieved through the new constitution and through relevant legislation passed by the newly elected parliament. Finally, the polarisation as evidenced by the number of parties and political candidates will continue until Egyptians elect their parliament, approve a new constitution and choose their new president and until the newly formed government gains clarity in its role within society and the global community.

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