CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CENT RE Egypt’s Parliamentary Elections: The First Steps Toward a New Nation November 2011 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises Linda Lavender This document discusses the upcoming Egyptian elections and the Team Leader, Mediterranean Basin new electoral process. Related information is available at [email protected] www.cimicweb.org. Hyperlinks to source material are highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. Melodee M. Baines Mediterranean Knowledge Manager [email protected] n article by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) characterised Egypt’s political spectrum as both complicated and in flux. Political parties are complex and defy fault lines. In addition to A over 50 political parties currently registered for the upcoming elections, other political actors within Egypt seek to gain influence in the formation of a new government. CEIP reports that by many accounts, it is unclear whether a democratic government can emerge from Egypt’s highly pluralistic political landscape. This report outlines the various actors within Egypt’s current political climate. Additionally, the report briefly addresses the electoral process unfolding in Egypt. The first round of parliamentary elections for the People’s Assembly, the lower house of the bicameral legislature, is scheduled for 28 November. Two additional rounds of elections for the People’s Assembly will follow (one in December and one in January 2012). Elections for the Shura Council, the upper house of the bicameral legislature, will also take place over three rounds, beginning in January 2012. Parliamentary Election Schedule (planned) by District People’s Assembly Elections Shura Council Elections (Lower House) (Upper House) 28 November 14 December 03 January 29 January 14 February 04 March 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 Cairo, Fayoum, Giza, Beni Suef, Minya, Cairo, Fayoum, Giza, Beni Minya, Port Said, Menoufiya, Qalioubiya, Port Said, Suef, Qalioubiya, Damietta, Sharqiya, Gharbiya, Damietta, Menoufiya, Gharbiya, Alexandria, Kafr Ismailiya, Suez, Daqahliya, Alexandria, Sharqiya, Daqahliya, El-Sheikh, Beheira, Sohag, North Sinai, Kafr El-Sheikh, Ismailiya, Suez, North Sinai, Assiut, Luxor, Aswan South Sinai, Assiut, Luxor, Beheira, Sohag, South Sinai, Red Sea Marsa Matrouh, Red Sea Aswan Marsa Matrouh, Qena, New Qena, New Valley Valley Run-off elections for the PA will be held on 05 December Run-off elections for the Shura Council will be held on 05 2011, 21 December 2011 and 10 January 2012 respectively February, 21 February and 11 March 2012 respectively Source: IFES Briefing Paper The Civil-Military Fusion Centre (CFC) is an information and knowledge management organisation focused on improving civil- military interaction, facilitating information sharing and enhancing situational awareness through the CimicWeb portal and our weekly and monthly publications. CFC products are based upon and link to open-source information from a wide variety of organisations, research centres and media sources. However, the CFC does not endorse and cannot necessarily guarantee the accuracy or objectivity of these sources. CFC publications are independently produced by Knowledge Managers and do not reflect NATO policies or positions of any other organisation. Thematic Report : Egypt’s Parliamentary Elections Current Context The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has controlled Egypt since Hosni Mubarak’s resignation on February 2011. The forming of the military government was considered temporary at the time and rule is planned to be handed back to civilians with the completion of a series of elections scheduled to begin on 28 November 2011. Recently SCAF confirmed that emergency law1, which was initially set to expire in November 2011, will continue through June 2012, reports Ahram. The period of military rule will last significantly longer than originally announced and is now expected to end by late 2012 or early 2013. According to the International Source: IFES Briefing Paper, November 2011 Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), the protracted timeline is the result of SCAF’s outlined election process, which includes parliamentary elections along with the drafting and approval of Egypt’s constitution, all of which will be time consuming. Only after the approval of the constitution will presidential elections be held. Within the Egyptian system of governance, the President is the head of the state. In the wake of the events of Tahrir Square and the ousting of Hosni Mubarak, SCAF has been a subject of growing criticism in Egypt, particularly in light of alleged crackdowns on protestors, as well as civilian deaths resulting from police brutality. In both the international and national communities there is collective uncertainty over what the future holds for Egypt. Arab News reports that much of this concern stems from the lack of a definitive timeline for the handover of power from the interim military rulers to the new political reality in Egypt. The delay in elections is further evidence that the military is in no hurry to hand over power and that it is interested in influencing the outcome of elections, reports the CEIP. Reuters reports that Fitch Ratings, a renowned global rating agency, believes Egypt cannot begin its long-term recovery until there is more certainty about its political future. Delays in the political transition are causing concern over Egypt’s economic recovery from the revolution. Global Post reports that some progressive political groups have already begun discussing a second revolution. Election System Post-Revolution Presidential Elections SCAF has issued several constitutional declarations, many of which contradict earlier guarantees and assurances to the Egyptian people, states Ahram. According to CEIP, a SCAF-issued declaration in March 2011 stated that presidential elections would occur following parliamentary elections, in advance of the drafting of a new national charter2. Then, according to Ahram, a late-March announcement by SCAF stated that presidential elections would be delayed further. An October announcement by SCAF indicates that after the completion of parliamentary elections in March 2012, SCAF can take up to six months to form a provisional assembly tasked with drafting a 1 Emergency law was first instituted by Mubarak over 30 years ago but was recently re-activated by SCAF in the aftermath of the 09 September 2011 clashes at the Israeli Embassy and the Giza Security Directorate Headquarters, according to Ahram 2 For further information on constitutional reform in the Mediterranean region see the CFC report “Constitutional Reform in North Africa” July 2011. November 2011 Page 2 Thematic Report : Egypt’s Parliamentary Elections new constitution. The Ahram article indicates that an additional six months will then be given for assembly members to draft the constitution. The draft constitution will then be put before a popular referendum for approval. If the new charter is approved by the public, the process of accepting presidential candidacies will begin, reports Ahram. This, however, means that presidential elections could be held as late as April 2013 Lower House—People’s Assembly According to al Jazeera, tensions have been high within the Egyptian public, especially among political activists, since SCAF assumed power. Now, as the first of the round of parliamentary elections is slated to begin on 28 November, many activists are anxious to move forward. Official campaigning for the first round of elections began on 02 November, but according to al Masry al Youm many candidates are waiting until after Eid al Adha3 celebrations on 07 November to undertake serious campaign efforts. The parliamentary elections will be staggered over three stages and are expected to last for approximately three and one half months. The United Nations’ Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN) reports that Egypt’s parliamentary system is a mixed electoral system. In the post-revolution People’s Assembly there are at total of 498 seats (reduced from 504). According to the IFES, SCAF amended electoral laws in late September 2011, which significantly reshaped the electoral system and process. The electoral districts have been redrawn to reflect the new system. The reaction to SCAF’s amendments was negative, as some felt that it was not reflective of earlier agreements SCAF made regarding elections. Also, few Egyptians understand the new, complex election system or even know what the plethora of parties represent, notes the IRIN. People’s Assembly Shura Council 4 Total Assembly 498 Seats 249 Seats Elected by PR System 332 120 Elected by Majoritarian System 166 60 Larger Districts 46 30 (4 to 12 members each) Smaller Districts 83 30 (2 members each) For the People’s Assembly, according to IRIN, one-third of the districts are considered to be small districts of only two seats each. Based on the late-coming amendments mentioned above, the seats in the small districts are elected based on the majoritarian or first-past-the-post system5 that Egypt has historically used. In these districts, the law requires that one candidate come from among the working classes,6 while the other candidate may be classified as a “professional”. The representation from the remaining two-thirds of the districts ranges from four to 12 seats 3 Muslim holiday that honours Abraham’s sacrifice of Ismael before God. 4 180 seats will be contested while 90 seats will be appointed by SCAF. 5 A name for the electoral system where the person winning the most votes in a constituency is elected. 6 Within each two-member district, one of the candidates must be a classified as a worker or a farmer, according to IFES. November 2011 Page 3 Thematic Report : Egypt’s Parliamentary Elections each. These seats will be elected through the proportional representation (PR) list system.7 According to IFES, common practice recommends the PR list system as the best method to facilitate the election of minority or female candidates. However, in Egypt, the IFES notes, the decision not to place minority and female candidates at the top of PR lists will impact their representation in the new government.