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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Iran’s Nuclear Future Critical U.S. Policy Choices Lynn E. Davis, Jeffrey Martini, Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye, James T. Quinlivan, Paul Steinberg Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-5175-2 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface U.S. decisionmakers will confront a series of critical policy choices as Iran’s nuclear program continues to evolve. The purpose of this study was to define these choices, describe the underlying complex consid- erations, assess their potential effectiveness, and uncover where policy trade-offs will be required. Given that the U.S. Air Force will be called on to carry out the military tasks associated with the policy choices, this study suggested ways in which the Air Force can prepare. The research reported here is the product of a fiscal year 2010 RAND Project AIR FORCE research project, “Aligning Nuclear Forces for the New Strategic Environment.” The project was sponsored by the Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U.S. Air Force (AF/A10); the research was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. This monograph will be of interest to anyone concerned about how Iran’s nuclear program may develop and what this could mean for future security in the critical region of the Middle East. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor- poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel- opment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel- opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force iii iv Iran’s Nuclear Future: Critical U.S. Policy Choices Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Study Objectives and Scope ...................................................... 1 Analysis Framework for the New Strategic Environment ..................... 2 Step 1: Conduct Regional Analyses ............................................ 2 Step 2: Define Ways to Achieve U.S. Goals for Nuclear Dissuasion, Deterrence, and Reassurance .............................................. 3 Step 3: Define and Assess Critical U.S. Policy Choices ..................... 4 Step 4: Describe U.S. Air Force Contributions............................... 4 How Our Analytical Approach Differs from Others .......................... 4 Organization of This Monograph ................................................ 5 CHAPTER TWO Influencing Iran ................................................................... 7 Iran’s National Security Interests ................................................. 7 Ensuring Regime Survival ...................................................... 7 Protecting the Homeland Against All External Threats .................... 9 Expanding Regional Influence ................................................. 9 Can Iran Be Expected to Act Rationally? ......................................10 v vi Iran’s Nuclear Future: Critical U.S. Policy Choices Iran’s Nuclear Program: Prospects and Uncertainties ........................12 Internal Debate on the Future of Iran’s Nuclear Program ...................14 CHAPTER THREE Dissuading Iran from Nuclear Weaponization ............................19 Iranian Actions That the United States Wishes to Dissuade .................19 Current U.S. Policies Toward Iran’s Nuclear Program ...................... 20 Critical U.S. Policy Choices .....................................................21 Raise Costs ......................................................................21 Provide Incentives .............................................................. 28 Conclusion .........................................................................29 CHAPTER FOUR Deterring a Nuclear-Armed Iran ..............................................31 Iran’s Military Behavior and Planning .........................................31 Historical Military Behavior ...................................................31 Military Doctrine ...............................................................32 Conventional Capabilities .....................................................33 Military Exercises .............................................................. 36 Paths to Conflict ..................................................................37 Conflict in Response to International Pressures and Actions Perceived as Acts of War ..................................................37 Conflict in Response to a U.S. or Israeli Attack Against Iran’s Nuclear Facilities .......................................................... 38 Conflict to Expand Regional Influence or Consolidate Domestic Power ....................................................................... 38 Iran’s Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons .......................................39 Current U.S. Policies and Capabilities ..........................................41 Policy Choices for Deterring Iran’s Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Military Forces ........................................................ 43 Deter by Managing Conflict Escalation .................................... 43 Deter by Raising the Costs of Using Nuclear Weapons by Threat of Retaliation ................................................................. 44 Deter by Denying Iran the Benefits of Using Nuclear Weapons ..........47 Contents vii Policy Choices for Deterring Iran’s Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Regional Partners ..................................................... 48 Conclusion .........................................................................49