How to Defuse Iran's Nuclear Threat
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Spring 2012 Vol. 36, No. 1 How to Defuse Iran’s Nuclear Threat Bolster Diplomacy, Israeli Security, and the Iranian Citizenry —By James Dobbins, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Alireza Nader, and Frederic Wehrey Chance of a Generation: In an Aging Mexico, a Moment of Opportunity to Boost Social Security —By Emma Aguila and Arie Kapteyn Calls of Duty: America Weighs Its Obligations to Veterans and Their Families Get the Big Picture Editor-in-Chief RAND Review covers the big issues with an John Godges Associate Editors eye for the important details. Gordon T. Lee, Paul Steinberg Assistant Editor James Torr Proofreaders Miriam Polon, Kelly Schwartz Designer Eileen Delson La Russo Graphic Artist Mary Wrazen Production Editor Todd Duft Circulation Coordinator Nora Kerrigan Web Producers Lee Floyd, Joel Kline, April Stock, Jason Walkowiak, Chara Williams Editorial Board Winfield Boerckel, Timothy Bonds, Brent Bradley, Cynthia Cook, Jennifer Gould, Jeffrey Hiday, James Hosek, Iao Katagiri, Kevin McCarthy, Carl Rhodes, K. Jack Riley, Charlene Rohr, Brian Stecher, Terri Tanielian, Mary Vaiana RAND Board of Trustees Paul G. Kaminski (chairman), Karen Elliott House (vice chairman), Barbara Barrett, Richard J. Danzig, Francis Fukuyama, Richard Gephardt, Pedro Jose Greer, Jr., Bonnie Hill, Lydia H. Kennard, Ann McLaughlin Korologos, Peter Lowy, Michael Lynton, Ronald L. Olson, Paul H. O’Neill, Mary E. Peters, Michael D. Rich, David K. Richards, James E. Rohr, Hector Ruiz, Leonard D. Schaeffer, Donald Tang Trustees Emeriti Harold Brown, Frank C. Carlucci RAND Review is published periodically by the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit institution. The mission of the RAND Corporation is to help improve policy and deci- sionmaking through research and analysis. Opinions are those of the authors and do not reflect positions taken by RAND, its board, or its clients. LETTERS Send letters to: Editor, RAND Review, 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407- 2138, or e-mail [email protected] PERMISSIONS For information about using mate- rial published in RAND Review, visit www.rand.org/ publications/permissions.html COPIES For hard copies of RAND Review, call (877) 584-8642 (toll free) or (310) 451-7002 (outside the United States); send a fax to (412) 802-4981; or e-mail [email protected] REPORTS Most reports cited in these pages may be purchased. To place credit card orders, contact RAND at the phone numbers or e-mail address listed immedi- ately above. National Book Network (NBN) also carries selected RAND titles. Call NBN at (800) 462-6420. SEARCH RAND documents can be searched by author, title, and category at www.rand.org/publications/pubs_search.html For previous editions and free online subscriptions, visit © Copyright 2012 RAND Corporation www.randreview.org RAND is a registered trademark. RAND: OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS. WWW.RAND.ORG Message from the Editor Good News Beneath The Flagship Magazine of the RAND Corporation the Surface Spring 2012 Vol. 36, No. 1 in W ald B THE SPECTER OF WAR with Iran has haunt- iane 4 News ed the news and editorial pages. The prob- • Undercut in Afghanistan PHOTO BY D lem posed by the Iranian nuclear program • Uninsured without a mandate is indeed very serious, but the rhetoric • Unbalanced court representation surrounding it is not always very illuminating. Slogans and • Undetermined marijuana regulations appeals to emotion, while natural enough in any political discourse, are not always backed up with careful cost-benefit analyses and feasibility studies. 8 Perspectives Getting Schooled Our cover story, by James Dobbins and his colleagues, tries to apply those tools to this challenge. Without down- How the United States Ranks Among Other playing the dangers, the authors argue that there are alter- Countries in Educational Achievement natives to preemptive military action that are more likely Chance of a Generation to dissuade Iran from producing, testing, and deploying nuclear weapons, while also offering a better hope of pro- 10 In an Aging Mexico, a Moment of Opportunity moting the eventual emergence of a more democratic and to Boost Social Security—By Emma Aguila and responsible Iranian regime. Arie Kapteyn Regarding this latter objective, “The best thing the United States can do to promote reform in Iran is to support the Window on the World growth of democracy in those other Middle Eastern countries 14 Mexicans Work and Work, where the United States has greater access and influence,” But Will Retirement Work for Them? the authors contend. “Adopting a regionwide and . glob- ally consistent approach to democratization is important to Centerpiece establishing the credibility of U.S. support for reform in Iran. 16 In Broad Daylight Employing this type of soft power could be decisive in the New Calculator Brings Crime Costs— long run.” This is good, encouraging news amid a debate that and the Value of Police—Out of the Shadows is often disheartening. Another source of unheralded, hopeful news emanates from south of the U.S. border. Like many countries, Mexico COVER STORY is facing the demographic and epidemiological challenge of 18 How to Defuse Iran’s providing financial security and adequate health care to mil- Nuclear Threat lions of elderly citizens. Nonetheless, the country finds itself in Bolster Diplomacy, Israeli Security, and the an enviable position to avert a crisis. As Emma Aguila and Arie Iranian Citizenry—By James Dobbins, Dalia Dassa Kapteyn explain, “The present day offers a unique opportu- Kaye, Alireza Nader, and Frederic Wehrey nity to reform and to adapt social security, saving, and health care policies before the largest generation in Mexico, born 23 Prolific Profanities Seem to Predict between 1980 and 2005, begins to retire in 2040.” Prominent Protests We are glad to bring these sources of promising news to the surface in this issue of RAND Review. Calls of Duty —John Godges 25 America Weighs Its Obligations to Veterans and Their Families—Ten authors address seven needs of On the Cover U.S. servicemembers and their families An Iranian worker stands beneath portraits of the late Iranian revolution- ary founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, right, and the current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, overlooking a production line at a 30 Publisher’s Page carbon fiber factory in Tehran on August 27, 2011. Carbon fiber is a material A Flood of Innovation under a United Nations embargo because of its potential use in Iran’s nuclear program. Louisiana’s Coastal Master Plan AP IMAGES/ISNA/ABDOLVAHED MIRZAZADEH —By Michael D. Rich WWW.RAND.ORG RAND REVIEW / S PR I NG 2 0 1 2 3 News U.S. Military Has Struggled to Retain Afghan Popular Support Since 2006 Long before the public relations tions that did not resonate with tar- The biggest successes were nightmares in Afghanistan of early get audiences and even some that in face-to-face communications. 2012—a video of U.S. Marines had counterproductive effects.” Meeting with local councils of urinating on Taliban corpses, Psychological operations— elders, working with key leaders, deadly riots after U.S. personnel efforts to use information to influ- and establishing individual rela- burned discarded Korans, and the ence foreign audiences’ beliefs and tionships with members of the suspected murder of 17 civilians by behaviors—had been used by the Afghan media all proved success- a troubled U.S. Army sergeant— U.S. military in Afghanistan to ful. Also effective: the concept of the U.S. military campaign to gain gain popular acceptance for the every infantryman being a psycho- popular support in the country overthrow of the Taliban gov- logical operations officer. had yielded mixed results. ernment, the presence of foreign Afghan disappointment with According to a RAND study troops, and the creation of a demo- the results of U.S. intervention on the effectiveness of the U.S. cratic national government. did not translate into support for military’s information and psy- Messages reflecting the Afghan the Taliban, who remained very chological operations in Afghani- yearning for peace and progress were unpopular among most Afghans. stan between 2001 and 2010, U.S. particularly effective initially, but U.S. efforts to highlight specific efforts started to become less per- became less so as Afghans became Taliban acts, such as destroying suasive in 2006 as the Afghan pub- disillusioned with the Karzai regime schools and killing schoolteachers, lic grew tired of foreign occupation. and increasingly frustrated over the helped discredit the insurgency. “We found some specific continuing fighting and lack of prog- But even when the U.S. mili- operations that were very suc- ress. The most notable shortcoming: tary took all the right steps, Muñoz cessful,” said Arturo Muñoz, the the inability to sufficiently counter said, its credibility was undercut by RAND senior political scientist the Taliban propaganda campaign concern among Afghans in con- who authored the study. “However, against U.S. and coalition forces tested areas that their own govern- there also are examples of opera- regarding civilian casualties. ment would be unable to protect them from a vengeful Taliban once U.S. and NATO forces left. The U.S. military might improve information effectiveness, the study concluded, by asking An Afghan youth personnel who served in Afghan- mourns for rela- tives who were istan to identify best practices, allegedly killed by coordinating military information a U.S. soldier in the Panjwai district of and public affairs operations, pre- Kandahar Province, testing messages with local focus Afghanistan, on March 11, 2012. groups, and relying on local lead- The soldier, now ers—clerics, chiefs, teachers—to in U.S. custody, is ■ accused of killing disseminate messages. 17 Afghan civilians, including 9 children and 3 women, in For more information: U.S. Military their homes in the Information Operations in Afghanistan: middle of the night Effectiveness of Psychological Opera- and then burn- tions 2001–2010, RAND/MG-1060-MCIA, ing some of their 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG1060 corpses.