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History and Evolutionary Trajectory of the Iranian Nuclear Program Mohammad Homayounvash Florida International University

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History and Evolutionary Trajectory of the Iranian Nuclear Program Mohammad Homayounvash Florida International University Florida International University FIU Digital Commons FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations University Graduate School 3-6-2012 History and Evolutionary Trajectory of the Iranian Nuclear Program Mohammad Homayounvash Florida International University DOI: 10.25148/etd.FI12050230 Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd Recommended Citation Homayounvash, Mohammad, "History and Evolutionary Trajectory of the Iranian Nuclear Program" (2012). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 624. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/624 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the University Graduate School at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida HISTORY AND EVOLUTIONARY TRAJECTORY OF THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS by Mohammad Homayounvash To: Dean Kenneth Furton College of Arts and Sciences This dissertation, written by Mohammad Homayounvash, and entitled History and Evolutionary Trajectory of the Iranian Nuclear Program, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment. We have read this dissertation and recommend that it be approved. _______________________________________ Nicholas Onuf _______________________________________ Thomas Breslin _______________________________________ Benjamin Smith _______________________________________ Mohiaddin Messbahi, Major Professor Date of Defense: March 6, 2012 The dissertation of Mohammad Homayounvash is approved. _______________________________________ Dean Kenneth G. Furton College of Arts and Sciences _______________________________________ Dean Lakshmi N. Reddi University Graduate School Florida International University, 2012 ii © Copyright 2012 by Mohammad Homayounvash All rights reserved. iii DEDICATION I dedicate this thesis to my parents, family, and colleagues at Florida International University without whose generous emotional and intellectual support it would not have come to fruition. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to thank all members of my committee for patiently and smoothly guiding me throughout the research and writing phases of the present work. Special gratitude should go to Dr. Mohiaddin Messbahi whose intellectual brilliance, generous mentorship, and inspiring lectures have been at the genesis of the present work and have guided it throughout. I would also like to thank Dr. Thomas Breslin for providing invaluable historiographical methodology and archival research advice. I have also benefitted from Dr. Nicholas Onuf’s theoretical insights and inspiring works and words. v ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION HISTORY AND EVOLUTIONARY TRAJECTORY OF THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM by Mohammad Homayounvash Florida International University, 2012 Miami, Florida Professor Mohiaddin Messbahi, Major Professor What actors and processes at what levels of analysis and through what mechanisms have pushed Iran’s nuclear program (INP) towards being designated as a proliferation threat (securitization)? What actors and processes at what levels of analysis and through what mechanisms have pushed Iran’s nuclear program away from being designated as an existential threat (de-securitization)? What has been the overall balance of power and interaction dynamics of these opposing forces over the last half-century and what is their most likely future trajectory? Iran’s nuclear story can be told as the unfolding of constant interaction between state and non-state forces of “nuclear securitization” and “nuclear de-securitization.” Tracking the crisscrossing interaction between these different securitizing and de- securitizing actors in a historical context constitutes the central task of this project. A careful tracing of “security events” on different analytical levels reveals the broad contours of the evolutionary trajectory of INP and its possible future path(s). Out of this theoretically conscious historical narrative, one can make informed observations about the overall thrust of INP along the securitization -- de-securitization continuum. vi The main contributions of this work are three fold: First, it brings a fresh theoretical perspective on Iran’s proliferation behavior by utilizing the “securitization” theory tracing the initial indications of the threat designation of INP all the way back to the mid 1970s. Second, it gives a solid and thematically grounded historical texture to INP by providing an intimate engagement with the persons, processes, and events of Tehran’s nuclear pursuit over half a century. Third, it demonstrates how INP has interacted with and even at times transformed the NPT as the keystone of the non- proliferation regime, and how it has affected and injected urgency to the international discourse on nuclear proliferation specifically in the Middle East. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 1 Methodology………………………………………………………………………5 Geostrategic Context…………………………….………………………..…..…...6 National Security Imperatives.................................................................................. 6 Bigger Bang for a Buck ........................................................................................... 8 Bureaucratic Causalities ......................................................................................... 10 Technological Determinants .................................................................................. 12 Psychological Context ........................................................................................... 14 Conceptual & Methodological Framework ........................................................... 18 2 1957-1973: NUCLEAR INFANCY ...................................................................... 27 The Monarch’s Security Expectations .................................................................. 44 The INP Muddles Through ................................................................................... 49 Deterrence Creeps into the Monarch’s Security Lexicon ..................................... 57 3 1974-1978: NUCLEAR EXUBERANCE ............................................................. 72 Establishment of the AEOI and the Indian PNE .................................................. 73 The Indian PNE and its Fallout ............................................................................ 79 The First Proliferation Red Flags Emerge ........................................................... 86 Tehran’s Nuclear Standoff with Washington ...................................................... 91 Lame-duck Ford Replaced by Anti-Nuclear Carter ........................................... 121 The India Resemblance Raises More Eyebrows ................................................ 135 AEOI’s Strategic Hedging ................................................................................. 138 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 149 4 1979-1988: NUCLEAR DORMANCY ............................................................... 157 Securitization of the INP Gains Momentum ...................................................... 170 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 177 5 1988-1997 NUCLEAR EXPEDIENCY .............................................................. 187 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 187 The Soviet Collapse and the Cottage Industry of Securitizing the INP .............. 189 Clinton and “Dual Containment” ........................................................................ 194 INP’s Russia Connection Sends Securitization to New Heights ........................ 201 Dual Containment and Its Critics ........................................................................ 209 A Shift from the BNPP to MRBMs .................................................................... 216 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 219 6 1997-2011: NUCLEAR APPEASEMENT & FLAMBOYANCY ...................... 224 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 224 Khatami’s Era ..................................................................................................... 225 Ahmadinejad’s Nuclear Obsession ..................................................................... 244 viii Iran’s IAEA and UNSC Dilemma ...................................................................... 246 INP’s Covert Militarization and Domestic De-Nationalization .......................... 253 Iran-Turkey-Brazil Axis ...................................................................................... 257 INP Enters Kinetic Militarization Zone .............................................................. 259 7 CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………..….263 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................... 267 VITA ........................................................................................................................
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