Recognizing a New Paradigm? The Syrian Civil War and Weapons of Mass Destruction

PRESENTATION TO: GAO - W i d e W M D Community of P r a c t i c e Washington, DC September 5, 2013

Charles P. Blair Senior Fellow, State and Non-State Threats Federation of American Scientists

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 1 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 OVERVIEW

1. Introduction: Unchartered Territory 2. Chemical Weapons (CW): Brief Overview 3. Syrian CW and Incidents Allegedly Involving their Use in Syria 4. The Regional Context 5. The International Context 6. The Opposition 7. U.S. Military Intervention 8. Future Scenarios 9. Conclusion: a New Paradigm?

1. UNCHARTED TERRITORY

• PRESENT: First “WMD”-armed state to descend into civil war – Worst Case Scenario • FUTURE: The importance of the “First” of anything salient

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 3 Table of Contents WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Uncharted Territory: What could Syria portend?

• North Korea? • Iran? • Egypt? • Etc. ?

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 4 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 North Korea & CW Possesses “bulk quantities of nerve, blister, choking, and blood agent.”* • Eight suspected CW production facilities • Ability to indigenously manufacture precursors • CW Delivery Systems: • Ballistic Missiles • Artillery • Aircraft

*Central Intelligence Agency, “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July through 31 December 2011. Available at: http://www.dni.gov/reports/2011_report_to_congress_wmd.pdf Member of BWC North Korea & BW (1987) SUSPECTED BW AGENTS INCLUDE:

Bacillus anthracis Disease = anthrax (bacteria) Most likely BW agents: Clostridium botulinum Disease = botulinum (toxin) 1. Bacillus anthracis Yersinia pestis 2. Clostridium botulinum Disease = plague (bacteria) 3. Yersinia pestis Vibrio cholerae Disease = cholera (bacteria) Variola major Disease = smallpox (virus) Rickettsia prowazekii Disease = typhus fever (rickettsia) Hemmoragic fevers viruses E.g., Yellow fever virus

2. CHEMICAL WEAPONS: A BRIEF OVERVIEW / REMINDER • Definitions • Properties • Types

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 7 Table of Contents WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 What is a Chemical Weapon?

“Deliver poisonous substances into a target population, with the purpose of causing injury, incapacity, or death.” … Delivery occurs “by inhalationinhalation, ingestioningestion , contact withwith the skinskin, or a combination of all three.”

Eric Crody, Chemical and Biological Warfare (New York: Copernicus Books, 2002), pp. 87-88.

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 8 What is a “Chemical Weapon Legally?

Schedules and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons  Schedule 1: includes sarin, mustard and their precursors  Schedule 2: includes BZ (3-Quinuclidinyl benzilate)  Schedule 3…

See: http://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/annex-on- chemicals/a-guidelines-for-schedules-of-chemicals/

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 9 CW and the Nonproliferation Regime

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 10 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 GENEVA PROTOCOL • Monterey’s James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies CNS), Text and Overview of the Geneva Protocol. Available at: http://cns.miis.edu/inventory/pdfs/genev.pdf

See also, Nuclear Threat Initiative • 1925, Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous, or Other Gasses, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare (Geneva Protocol). Summary and Text Available at: http://www.nti.org/treaties-and- regimes/protocol-prohibition-use-war-asphyxiating-poisonous-or-other-gasses-and-bacteriological-methods-warfare- geneva-protocol/.

CWC • Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) Monterey’s James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies CNS), Overview, Text and Membership. Full title: Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction (CWC).

OPCW • Overview of the Chemical Weapons Convention, Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapon (OPCW). Available at: http://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/about-the- convention/

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 11 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Properties of Chemical Weapons

A Comparative Understanding of Syria’s Likely Chemical Weapons Stockpile

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 12 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 CW Worksheet Available here

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 13 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 OVERVIEW: GENERAL CHEMICAL WEAPON TYPES AND SALIENT SPECIFIC AGENTS 1. Choking Agents 4. Nerve Agents o Chlorine (CI) o Phosgene (CG) G Series o Diphosgene o Tabun – GA o o Chloropicrin (PS) Sarin – GB o Soman – GD 2. Blister Agents (vesicants) VX o Mustard Sulfur (HD) o Lewisite 5. Incapacitating Agents o Phosgene Oxime o BZ o LSD 3. Blood Agents o Hydrogen Cyanide (HCN) 6. Riot Control Agents  Zyklon B (RCAs) (LACRIMATOR OR EYE o Cyanogen Chloride (CK) IRRITANT) o Hydrogen Sulfur (“Sour Gas”) o CN : e. g., Mace

o CS: Tear Gas

7. Herbicides

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 14 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13

Textbook of Military Medicine on: Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Borden Institute, Office of The Surgeon General, AMEDD Center & School, US Army, 2008). http://www.cs.amedd.army.mil/borden/Portlet.aspx?id=d3d11f5a-f2ef-4b4e-b75b-6ba4b64e4fb2

Potential Military Chemical/Biological Agents and Compound (Washington, D.C.: Department of the Army, Department of the Navy, Department of the Air Force, January 2005). https://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-11-9.pdf

NATO Handbook on the Medical Aspects of NBC Defensive Operations Part III: Chemical (Washington, D.C.: Departments of the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force, February 1, 1996). http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/fm8-9/3toc.htm

The Militarily Critical Technologies List (MCTL) Part II: Weapons of Mass Destruction Technologies (ADA 330102), U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, February 1998. http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/mctl98-2/

Office of Technology Assessment, Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA, 1993). http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ota/9344.pdf

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 15 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 CHEMICAL WARFARE AGENTS: SALIENT PROPERTIES

1. How likely is the CW agent to lead to death? • LETHALITY 2. How will CW agent enter or attack a body? • MODE OF ACTION 3. How fast will the CW agent act? • SPEED OF ACTION 4. How much of the CW agent is needed to result in the desired effect? • TOXICITY 5. How long will the CW agent last on the “battlefield”? • PERSISTENCY 6. How difficult is it to acquire the CW agent(s)? • AVAILABILITY OF AGENT AND/OR PRECURSORS 7. How challenging is it to manufacture / weaponize the CW agent? • WEAPONIZATION

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 16 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Lethality

How likely will exposure to a chemical weapon lead to death

• An attacker may choose to administer a sub- lethal dose: goal would be to incapacitate not kill • Some chemical agent types are designed to be non-lethal, e.g. riot control agents (RCAs)

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 17 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Mode of Action

How can a chemical agent enter the body? 1. Inhalation 2. Ingestion 3. Percutaneous (through the skin, eyes, or mucus membranes)

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 18 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Speed of Action

• What is the delay between exposure and effect? • Instantaneous (seconds to minutes) versus hours and days

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 19 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Toxicity

• Quantity of a chemical agent that is required to produce a specific, deleterious effect

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 20 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 21 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Persistency

• Length of time a chemical agent remains hazardous after its release • Non-persistent agents last from a few minutes to about an hour, i.e., rapid evaporation. • Semi-persistent agents last from several hours to about a day • Persistent agents can last for several days to a few weeks. These tend to be thick and oily.

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 22 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Weaponization

• Under normal atmospheric conditions, is the chemical agent a solid, liquid, or gas? • How does this state affect an agent’s weaponizability? • How corrosive is the agent?

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 23 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 WEAPONIZATION: Aerosolization

• The most efficient method for creating casualties • Not too small; not too big for lung deposition  Aerosols containing 0.5 to 3 micron sized particles can remain in lungs

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 24 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Aerosolization

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 25 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Syrian CW Delivery Systems

• Missiles – see here • Artillery • Aircraft

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 26 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 3. CHEMICAL WEAPONS ALLEGEDLY USED IN SYRIAN INCIDENTS

– Chlorine (CI): Doubtful – Mustard: Doubtful – Sarin (GB): Likely (~ 4-5 times) – VX: Doubtful – BZ: Doubtful – CS & CN: Likely (~ hundreds / thousands of times) – Other: White Phosphorus – Likely (~ several times)

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 27 Table of Contents WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13

OVERVIEW OF POTENTIAL SYRIAN CW

1. Choking Agents 4. Incapacitating Agents o Chlorine (CI) o BZ 2. Blister Agents (vesicants) 5. Riot Control Agents o Mustard Sulfur (HD) (LACRIMATOR OR EYE (RCAs) IRRITANT) 3. Nerve Agents o CN : e. g., Mace o CS: Tear Gas G Series o Sarin – GB VX

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide Table of Contents 28 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Choking Agents (Asphyxiants)

• Some of the first chemical agents used in modern warfare • Inhaled in sufficient quantities, they can cause pulmonary edema  suffocating the victim (“dry-land drowning”)

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 29 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Chlorine (CI)

• Choking Agent • Chlorine – abundant and relatively cheap • Heavier than air  effective against entrenched opposition • Pungent, green-yellow gas; can be liquefied under moderate pressure  distinctive odor gives warning of its presence

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 30 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Chlorine and Syria

• Syrian use? – Khan al-Assal (March 19, 2013) – More likely: unburnt fuel and oxidizer from a conventionally- armed Scud missile. • Considered obsolete as weapon of war – But for Violent Non- State Actors (VNSA)? Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 31 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Blister Agents (Vesicants)

• Serious skin irritation • Damage to (primarily upper) respiratory system • Additional organ damage

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 32 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Blister Agents (Vesicants)

Temporary or sometimes permanent blindness

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 33 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Sulfur Mustard (HD)

• Persistent chemical • Could penetrate clothing, rubber, leather • Multiple routes of attack • Fat Soluble

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 34 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Blister Agents: Speed of Action

* Medical Aspects of Chemical and Biological Warfare. (Washington, D.C., Department of Defense, Office of The Surgeon General, US Army, Borden Institute,2007, 266. Available at: http://www.bordeninstitute.army.mil/published_volumes/chemwarfare/CH8_Pgs259- Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 310.pdf 35 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Sulfur Mustard: Lethality

* Medical Aspects of Chemical and Biological Warfare. (Washington, D.C., Department of Defense, Office of The Surgeon General, US Army, Borden Institute,2007, 266. Available at: http://www.bordeninstitute.army.mil/published_volumes/chemwarfare/CH8_Pgs259- Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 310.pdf 36 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13

Mustard Agent & Syria

• Likely part of Syria’s CW arsenal • Accusations of planned use by defector In April 2013 • “Evidence” of mustard agent in use – April 29, 2013, Saraqeb, Syria • Hezballah and mustard agent – May 2013, 2013, Qusayr, Syria Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 37 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13

Nerve Agents

• Chemical composition related to insecticides • G-series: GA – tabun, GB – sarin, GD – soman • V-series: e.g. VX

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 38 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13

Nerve Agents

• Toxic effects via: – inhalation, – skin contact (including eyes), or – ingestion • Some nerve agents are 700 times as toxic as mustard agent • Paralyze respiratory musculature • Can cause death in a few minutes – basically immediate • Vary in persistence

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 39 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 “Persistency” of Nerve Agents

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide Medical Aspects of Chemical and Biological Warfare. (Washington, D.C., Department of Defense, Office of The Surgeon General, US Army, Borden 40 Institute,2007, 167. Available at: http://www.bordeninstitute.army.mil/published_volumes/chemwarfare/Ch5_pg155WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 -220.pdf Sarin (GB) Nerve Agent and Syria

– Homs (Al-Bayyada) PRE-AUGUST 21 • 12/12/2012 CASUALTIES - ALL SEVEN EVENTS: – Damascus (Otaiba) ______• 3/14/13 - April 2013 – Aleppo (Khan al-Assal) Wounded: 368 – 581 • 3/19/2013 Killed: 37 - 51 – Damascus (Darya) • ~ 03/20/2013 – Damascus (Jobar) • ~ 4/6/2013 - at least 4/18/2013 – Aleppo (Sheikh Maqsoud) • Night of 4/13/13 and 4/14/13 – Saraqeb

• 4/29/2013 Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 41 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Sarin (GB) Nerve Agent and Syria

–Damascus suburbs – August 21, 2013 • 1,429 dead (USG), 350 dead (UK) • GB experimental use (five minutes): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ks2qYcqRIYg&feature=related

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 42 Map source: USG WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 INCAPACITANTS: TYPES 1950s and 1960s several pharmacological substances explored for use as incapacitants. These included: • Depressants • Belladonna drugs (scopolamine, BZ) • Hallucinogens (e.g., LSD) • Opiate Derivatives (fentalyl and its derivatives*)

*Fenatyl (or a related derivative were used by Russian security forces during the Moscow Music Theatre siege of October 23, 2002. The agent – put into use with the intention of incapacitating the Chechen rebels conducting the siege - killed 129 civilians. The Chechens were organized under the Special Purpose Islamic Regiment (SPIR). Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 43 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 INCAPACITANTS: BELLADONNA DRUGS

– 3-Quinuclidinyl Benzilate (BZ) – Belladonna-based (poisonous nightshade plant) – Very unpredictable – Eventually phased out of the U.S. CW stockpile BZ acts on the central nervous system Can cause: • Unconsciousness • “Altered States of Situational Awareness” Hallucinations • Overall, BZ can disrupt key mental functions like: Memory Problem solving Attention/focus

Comprehension Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 44 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 BZ Incapacitating Agent and Syria

REPORTED USE IN SYRIA:

• Homs (Bab Amr) • Early-Mid Feb. 2012

• Homs (Al-Bayyada) • 12/23/2012

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 45 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Riot Control Agents (RCAs) and Syria

WIDESPREAD USE:

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 46 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Outside the CWC: Chemicals used as Warfare Agents White Phosphorus (WP) • Not legally considered a chemical weapon • Alleged CW events in Syria include offensive use of the chemical properties of the agent

REPORTED USE of WP IN SYRIA: • Homs – 12/6/2012 • Aleppo (Khan al-Assal) – 3/19/2013 • Adra (near Damascus) – 3/24/2013 • Damascus Suburb – 08/30/2013

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 47 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13

A SYRIAN OFFENSIVE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM?

Central Intelligence Agency, “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July through 31 December 2011., p. 7. Available at: http://www.dni.gov/reports/2011_report_to_congress_wmd.p Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 48 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 IN SUM: CW AGENTS LIKELY USED BY THE ASSAD REGIME 1. Choking Agents 4. Nerve Agents o Chlorine (CI) o Phosgene (CG) G Series o Diphosgene o Tabun – GA o o Chloropicrin (PS) SARIN – GB o Soman – GD 2. Blister Agents (vesicants) VX o Mustard Sulfur (HD) o Lewisite 5. Incapacitating Agents o Phosgene Oxime o BZ o LSD 3. Blood Agents o Hydrogen Cyanide (HCN) 6. Riot Control Agents  Zyklon B (RCAs) (LACRIMATOR OR EYE o Cyanogen Chloride (CK) IRRITANT) o Hydrogen Sulfur (“Sour Gas”) o CN : e. g., Mace

o CS: Tear Gas

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 49 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13

4. THE REGIONAL CONTEXT

• Iran • Iraq • Turkey • Lebanon • Jordan • Saudi Arabia • Qatar • United Arab Emirates (UAE) • Israel

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 50 Table of Contents WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Regional Failures Tell Us Much

• IRAN “Strong strategic and security bonds [with Syria] had not translated into societal interactions able to inform Iranian thinking.”* • SAUDI ARABIA & QATAR (and Jordan) No clear understanding of Syrians apart from the elite. Had to outsource aid distribution. * Emile Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (London: IISS, 2013), p. 124.

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 51 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 The Regional Context: Turkey

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 52 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Differing Perspectives on Syria: The Gulf States

SAUDI ARABIA: Work with “trans-regional tribal groups” • Islamist networks • Defectors from the Assad Regime

QATAR: Balancing covert support for the Muslim Brotherhood

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 53 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 5. THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT

• Russia • China • The United States • The UK • France

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 54 Table of Contents WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 6. Opposition Forces

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 55 Table of Contents WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Static Typology of Opposition Forces

PRO-ASSAD FORCES OPPOSITION FORCES

OPPOSITION FORCES: KURDISH FREE SYRIAN ARMY VIOLENT ISLAMISTS

GLOBAL JIHADIST MUSLIM SUNNI ISLAMIST KURDS IN FREE SYRIAN FRONT BROTHERHOOD GROUPS SALAFI – JIHADI SYRIA AFFILIATED GROUPS ARMY RADICALS

The Joint Command was also challenged by the rise of Hizballah The National Coalition 80 percentp roof minent Islamist and Salafist brigades in Syria. From for Syrian Revolutionary Opposition Fitos ricnecseption, the organization attempted to marginalize and Opposition Forces Graphic by ideologically affiliated rebel units, fearing that any (NC) Blair religious connotation undermined what they saw as FAS an inclusive, secular movement. This was a deliberate September 2013 decision made by the Joint Command in order to garner broader support from minority communities and to reassure the international community of the Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide organization’s adherence to democratic principles.15 it 56 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Violent also reflected the credentials of the Joint Command, which was constituted by defectors who looked to Islamist establish a professional body based on their experience and knowledge of the Syrian military. Al-Nusra Elizabeth O’Bagy The Free Syrian Arim 2013 p, 12. ISIS Syrian Islamic Front (SIF Or silf Jabhat Tahrir Souriya or Salah al-Din Brigade Sheikh Adnan Jabhat al-Tahrir al- Ahrar al-Sham ArourOverall, his Souriya al-Islamiya inclusion is more hELENE Captain Biwar mustafa indicative of the importance of ideological financiers in the Gulf rather than that Headed by Selim Idriss of the Joint -al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra) Led by Abu Mohammed al Command’s Golani, Ayman al-Zawhiri ideology o bagy Origins & Basic facts -First public statement on 1/24/12, called for struggle against Syrian governments -claimed responsibility for Aleppo twin suicide car bombings in Feb 2012 (al Arabiya)1 -group has members of former al-Qaeda in Iraq members (Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari) (7/6/2012)2 -Salafist ideology (similar to Wahhabi Islam) -approx. 5,000 official fighters Operations -most effective fighting force for rebels (Washington Post, 6/25/13)3 -as of March 2013, has claimed credit for 57 of 69 Syrian suicide bombings4 -While not directly affiliated with al-Qaida in Iraq (also known as Islamic State of Iraq), group, follows orders of Ayman al- Zawahiri5 -has own media company (al-Manara al-Baida) and own facebook page, youtube videos -bombings include those of the suicide, truck, car variety7,8 -as of May 2013, controlled Ar-Raqqa, provincial capital, and set up sharia courts -provides humanitarian aid in controlled areas -set up Sharia courts in Aleppo16 Source (augmented image): Helene Lavoix, “Evaluating Forces on the Syrian Battlefield,(Red Team Analysis, July 8, 2013. See here (Kurdish) Peoples Protection Units 10,000 - 15,000

Sunni Islamist and Nationalist Salafi ~ 37,000 - 67,000(see here) Al-Nasra ~ 5,000

Free Syrian Army ~ 10,000 (see here) ~ 60,000 – 100,000 (Zelin : see here) ~ 7,000 Mukhabarat ~ 4,000 100,000 – 200,000 (Holiday: see p. 55 here [pdf])

65,000 – 75,000 (300,000) 100,000 paramilitaries – see page 27 here [pdf] (Holiday: see page 27 here Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide [pdf] 57 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 All forces on the Syrian battleground – high and low estimates

BlairSource: - FAS Lavoix - Syria, “Evaluating Presentation Forces GAO on-Wide the 58 WMD CommunitySyrian Battlefield.of Practice -- 09/05/13 Sunni Islamist and Salafi Nationalist Groups – Seek an Islamist State in Syria

Things get complicated very quickly

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 59 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 Global Jihadist Front/Salafi- jihadi radicals

Helene Lavoix, “Evaluating Forces on the Syrian Battlefield,(Red Team Analysis, July 8, 2013. See here Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 60 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 7. MILITARY INTERVENTION – Considerations… • The Fog of War • Understanding the Opposition • Command and Control Concerns • Unanticipated Consequences • The End Game

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 61 Table of Contents WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 8. FUTURE SCENARIOS

• Syria and CW – Assad as one warlord – Ideal outcomes? – Less than ideal outcomes? • VNSA and CW – Mass Casualty Weapon • VNSA, CW, and Syria – Weapon of Mass Impact • VNSA, CW, and the region • VNSA, CW, and the world

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 62 Table of Contents WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 9. CONCLUSION: EMERGENCE OF A NEW PARADIGM?

Table of Contents

C.F. Kurtz and D.J Snowden, “The new dynamicsBlair of strategy: - FAS - Syria sense Presentation-making in a GAO complex-Wide and complicated world” IBM Systems Journal, 42:3, (2003), p. 468-470.Available at: http://xenia.media.mit.edu/~brooks/storybiz/kurtz.pdf 63 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13 • Helene Lavoix, The Syrian War – Bibliography and Sources, Updated July 15, 2013. Available here • Charles P. Blair, Additional CW Sources, Working Draft. Available here

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 64 Table of Contents WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13

Questions / Comments ? The Syrian Civil War and Weapons of Mass Destruction

PRESENTATION TO: GAO - W i d e W M D Community of P r a c t i c e Washington, DC September 5, 2013

Charles P. Blair [email protected] Senior Fellow, State and Non-State Threats 202.510.2802 Federation of American Scientists

Blair - FAS - Syria Presentation GAO-Wide 65 WMD Community of Practice -- 09/05/13