April 2020 Commonwealth Poll A survey of Virginians conducted by the Center for Public Policy at VCU’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs

Contacts: L. Douglas Wilder Farrah Stone, Ph.D. Angelica Bega, executive assistant Poll Director (804) 828-8520 or [email protected] (804) 305-3447 or [email protected]

Large majority of Virginians approve of how Northam is handling the COVID-19 crisis, VCU poll finds

RICHMOND, Va. (April 14, 2020) — More than three-quarters of Virginians (76%) approve of the way Gov. Ralph Northam is handling the coronavirus crisis, with 40% strongly approving, according to a new statewide poll conducted by the Center for Public Policy at the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.

Northam enjoys a high level of approval regardless of party affiliation, with about 7-in-10 Republicans and independents strongly or somewhat approving (68% and 70% respectively). Nine-in-10 Democrats approve, with 55% strongly approving of Northam’s handling of the crisis. Regionally, Tidewater is more likely to strongly approve with 55%, while in other regions between 33% and 39% strongly approve.

The poll, a telephone survey of 812 adults living in Virginia, was conducted between March 25 and April 8. It has an estimated margin of error of 4.51 percentage points for all adults sampled, and 5.68 percentage points for likely voters. The poll also provides additional insight into Virginians’ opinion of how the COVID-19 crisis is being handled on a national level as well as a snapshot of the 2020 presidential election in Virginia.

Approval of coronavirus response Do you approve or disapprove of the way that [Donald Trump / Ralph Northam] are handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic? Do you feel that

way strongly or somewhat?

Strongly approve Trump 28 22 15 33 Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Northam 40 36 10 12 Strongly disapprove 0 50 100 Don't know/refused

Source: April 2020 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll 1 Among the poll’s key findings:

 Virginians are almost evenly split about how well President Trump is handling the COVID-19 crisis. Fifty percent of Virginians strongly or somewhat approve of how Trump is handling the crisis, while 48% strongly or somewhat disapprove. Party identification and race are significant to the opinion. Eighty-three percent of Republicans approve, while 79% of Democrats disapprove. Independents are more evenly split with 52% approving and 45% disapproving. Racial minorities are more likely to disapprove of the job Trump is doing, with 62%, and 45% strongly disapproving. In comparison, 59% of whites approve strongly or somewhat, while 40% disapprove.  Overall, Virginians think the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is prepared to handle the COVID-19 crisis. Sixty-one percent think the CDC is very or somewhat prepared to handle a widespread coronavirus outbreak, with a plurality of 43% thinking it’s somewhat prepared. Republicans are more likely to think the CDC is prepared with 32% saying it’s very prepared, compared to 16% of independents and 9% of Democrats.  Biden leads Trump by 10 percentage points among likely voters in Virginia. When likely voters were asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 51% said Joe Biden, while 41% said Donald Trump. This represents an increase in support for Biden of 7 percentage points since our last reporting in December 2019. Gender and level of education are significant to the vote choice. Women prefer Joe Biden by 21 percentage points (57% Biden/36% Trump) and men prefer Trump by 4 percentage points (48% Trump/44% Biden). Those with a college degree or more prefer Biden by 24 percentage points (58% Biden/34% Trump) compared to those with a high school diploma or less who prefer Trump by 13 percentage points (53% Trump/40% Biden). Regionally, Biden has strong support in Northern Virginia (62% Biden/28% Trump) with a smaller lead in the Northwest, South Central and Tidewater. The West prefers Trump by 9 percentage points (Trump 52%/Biden 43%). Note: The survey was conducted before Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign.  Being the most qualified candidate is more important to likely voters than definitely having a female vice presidential candidate. Respondents are more likely to volunteer that they prefer the most qualified candidate regardless of gender (43%) when asked whether the Democratic presidential candidate should choose a woman as a running mate. Thirty-nine percent of likely voters agree that the Democrat candidate should choose a woman, only 12% disagree.

“Our poll, taken at one of the more interesting times in our nation's history reflects several things: On the national COVID-19 response, people see money in play as reflected in their favorable responses to money being returned to individuals and small businesses. Trump’s 50% approval rating relative to the COVID-19 handling is his strong personal appeal with his base, and could be the hidden magnet amongst the electorate,” said L. Douglas Wilder, distinguished professor and former Virginia governor. “On candidate Joe Biden, Northern Virginia voters clearly reflect the greater numbers and the preference for Biden is evident. Biden’s commitment to selecting a female running mate doesn’t convince many voters; the majority of whom believe the best qualified person should be selected.”

2 Approval of coronavirus response by party ID Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Ralph Northam is handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

All adults 40 36 10 12 Strongly approve Democrat 55 35 52 Somewhat approve

Republican 34 34 11 19 Somewhat disapprove Independent 34 36 13 15 Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused 0 50 100

Source: April 2020 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll

3 About VCU and VCU Health

Virginia Commonwealth University is a major, urban public research university with national and international rankings in sponsored research. Located in downtown Richmond, VCU enrolls more than 31,000 students in 217 degree and certificate programs in the arts, sciences and humanities. Thirty-eight of the programs are unique in Virginia, many of them crossing the disciplines of VCU’s 11 schools and three colleges. The VCU Health brand represents the VCU health sciences academic programs, the VCU Massey Cancer Center and the VCU Health System, which comprises VCU Medical Center (the only academic medical center in the region), Community Memorial Hospital, Children’s Hospital of Richmond at VCU, MCV Physicians and Virginia Premier Health Plan. For more, please visit www.vcu.edu and vcuhealth.org.

4 Methodology

The Commonwealth Poll April 2020, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU), obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 812 adults, age 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (410) and cell phone (402, including 230 without a landline). The data collection was conducted by Responsive Management from March 25-April 8, 2020. Statistical results are weighted to correct for known demographic discrepancies. A two-stage weighting procedure was used to weight this dual-frame sample by the demographic characteristics of sex, age, education, race, Hispanic origin, and region using the geographic and demographic weighting parameters from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 American Community Survey (ACS) data. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 4.51 percentage points. The estimated margin of error for registered voters (n=742) is ±5.49 percentage points. The estimated margin of error for likely voters (n=663) is ±5.68 percentage points. The sample consisted of a combination of listed landline and cellular random digit dial (RDD) samples. The overall sample was representative of the adult general population of Virginia who have access to either a listed landline or cellular telephone. Both samples were provided by Marketing Systems Group, a leader in providing research-based statistical samples. The cellular RDD sample was prescreened for disconnected numbers. As many as seven attempts were made to contact each landline telephone number, and as many as five attempts were made to contact each cell phone number. Calls were made at different times of the day and on different days of the week to maximize the chance of contacting potential respondents. Response rates are computed according to American Association for Public Opinion Research standards.1 The response rate for the landline sample was 8.4 percent. The response rate for the cellular sample was 8.5 percent.

1 The American Association for Public Opinion Research. 2016. Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates for Surveys, 9th Edition. AAPOR. 5 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll April 2020 State-wide survey of Virginians2 March 25- April 8, 2020 Number of Respondents: 812

Q1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Sept Dec Likely voters only 2020 N 2019 2019 % % % Trump 41 280 46 46 Biden 51 338 51 49 Don’t Know/Refused 8 45 3 6

QUESTION 2 HELD FOR SEPARATE RELEASE

Q3. Do you agree or disagree that the eventual Democratic candidate for president should pick a woman as the vice presidential candidate? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

Likely voters only 2020 % Strongly agree 24 Somewhat agree 15 Somewhat disagree 4 Strongly disagree 8 Prefer the most qualified candidate regardless of 43 gender (VOLUNTEERED) Don’t Know/Refused 7

Q4. How prepared do you think the Centers for Disease Control are to handle a widespread coronavirus outbreak?

2020 % Very prepared 18 Somewhat prepared 43 Not too prepared 23 Not at all prepared 14 Don’t Know/Refused 2

Q5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

2020 % Strongly approve 28 Somewhat approve 22 Somewhat disapprove 15 Strongly disapprove 33 Don’t Know/Refused 2

2 Percentages may add to 99 or 101 due to rounding. Cells that are blank contain no cases. Cells with a zero percent entry contain cases, but the percentage is less than 0.5%. 6

Q6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Virginia Governor Ralph Northam is handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

2020 % Strongly approve 40 Somewhat approve 36 Somewhat disapprove 10 Strongly disapprove 12 Don’t Know/Refused 3

QUESTIONS 7 THROUGH 13 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE

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Tables for subgroup analysis3

Q1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Trump Biden Don't know/ Refused Number of Cases Likely Voters 41% 51% 8% 663

VA Region Northwest 46% 47% 7% 89 NOVA 28% 62% 10% 209 West 52% 43% 5% 101 South Central 46% 48% 6% 124 Tidewater 43% 48% 9% 140

Gender Male 48% 44% 8% 284 Female 36% 57% 8% 379

Age 18-34 27% 59% 14% 42 35-44 37% 56% 6% 49 45-64 43% 49% 8% 284 65 and over 46% 49% 5% 288

Education High school grad 53% 40% 7% 107 or less Some college 43% 50% 7% 137 College graduate 34% 58% 9% 419 or more

Family Under $50,000 40% 51% 9% 130 Income 50K to under 41% 57% 2% 172 $100,000 $100,000 or 39% 52% 10% 251 more

Race White 53% 41% 7% 494 Minority 15% 75% 10% 169

Party ID Democrat 3% 95% 2% 223 Republican 88% 8% 3% 192 Independent 39% 48% 13% 237

3 Cells with 0% may have observations but are less than 1%. Cells may add to 99% or 101% due to rounding. 8 Q3. Do you agree or disagree that the eventual Democratic candidate for president should pick a woman as the vice presidential candidate? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? Prefer the most qualified candidate Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly regardless of Don't Number agree agree disagree disagree gender know/Refused of cases Likely Voters 24% 15% 4% 8% 43% 7% 663

VA Region Northwest 23% 13% 3% 3% 42% 16% 89 NOVA 28% 19% 2% 5% 42% 4% 209 West 21% 14% 9% 10% 38% 6% 101 South Central 21% 10% 2% 13% 51% 3% 124 Tidewater 22% 14% 5% 11% 41% 6% 140

Gender Male 21% 19% 4% 9% 42% 6% 284 Female 26% 12% 4% 8% 43% 7% 379

Age 18-34 27% 22% 1% 4% 43% 3% 42 35-44 28% 19% 3% 5% 40% 5% 49 45-64 23% 11% 5% 8% 48% 6% 284 65 and over 22% 15% 4% 12% 36% 10% 288

Education High school 23% 14% 6% 11% 37% 9% 107 grad or less Some college 22% 11% 4% 9% 46% 7% 137 College 25% 17% 3% 6% 44% 5% 419 graduate or more

Family Under $50,000 29% 14% 5% 9% 35% 7% 130 Income 50K to under 19% 16% 7% 5% 46% 8% 172 $100,000 $100,000 or 24% 17% 3% 6% 44% 5% 251 more

Race White 18% 14% 3% 10% 47% 7% 494 Minority 36% 17% 5% 3% 34% 5% 169

Party ID Democrat 43% 20% 5% 2% 27% 3% 223 Republican 6% 4% 4% 19% 56% 11% 192 Independent 21% 18% 3% 6% 45% 6% 237

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Q4. How prepared do you think the Centers for Disease Control are to handle a widespread coronavirus outbreak?

Very Somewhat Not too Not at all Don't Number prepared prepared prepared prepared know/Refused of Cases All Adults 18% 43% 23% 14% 2% 812

VA Region Northwest 15% 50% 24% 9% 2% 113 NOVA 11% 43% 31% 13% 1% 242 West 24% 43% 13% 17% 3% 134 South Central 22% 49% 13% 14% 2% 155 Tidewater 24% 34% 25% 15% 3% 168

Gender Male 21% 41% 23% 13% 1% 362 Female 16% 45% 22% 15% 2% 450

Age 18-34 7% 36% 34% 22% 0% 80 35-44 15% 45% 29% 10% 0% 76 45-64 21% 49% 17% 10% 3% 333 65 and over 28% 41% 16% 12% 3% 323

Education High school grad 19% 44% 18% 17% 2% 167 or less Some college 20% 41% 24% 14% 2% 169 College graduate 17% 44% 26% 12% 2% 476 or more

Family Income Under $50,000 16% 46% 20% 16% 2% 191 50K to under 21% 41% 27% 8% 3% 202 $100,000 $100,000 or more 19% 41% 28% 12% 0% 277

Race White 21% 45% 20% 11% 2% 589 Minority 14% 39% 28% 19% 1% 223

Party ID Democrat 9% 45% 30% 15% 1% 253 Republican 32% 41% 13% 9% 5% 216 Independent 16% 44% 24% 15% 1% 325

10 Q5: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don't know/ Number of approve approve disapprove disapprove Refused Cases All Adults 28% 22% 15% 33% 2% 812

VA Region Northwest 28% 22% 15% 32% 3% 113 NOVA 18% 23% 18% 39% 2% 242 West 42% 26% 12% 18% 3% 134 South Central 36% 26% 11% 26% 2% 155 Tidewater 26% 12% 16% 44% 2% 168

Gender Male 29% 24% 12% 32% 2% 362 Female 27% 20% 17% 34% 2% 450

Age 18-34 16% 25% 25% 32% 2% 80 35-44 23% 32% 14% 29% 1% 76 45-64 31% 20% 12% 35% 2% 333 65 and over 40% 15% 8% 35% 3% 323

Education High school 30% 28% 13% 26% 3% 167 grad or less Some college 27% 22% 20% 30% 1% 169 College 28% 16% 13% 41% 2% 476 graduate or more

Family Income Under 30% 27% 11% 29% 3% 191 $50,000 50K to under 30% 14% 23% 31% 2% 202 $100,000 $100,000 or 20% 22% 13% 43% 1% 277 more

Race White 37% 22% 13% 27% 2% 589 Minority 14% 21% 17% 45% 3% 223

Party ID Democrat 5% 13% 23% 56% 2% 253 Republican 61% 22% 9% 7% 1% 216 Independent 26% 26% 12% 33% 2% 325

11 Q6: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Ralph Northam is handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don't know/ Number of approve approve disapprove disapprove Refused Cases All Adults 40% 36% 10% 12% 3% 812

VA Region Northwest 39% 40% 10% 7% 4% 113 NOVA 33% 37% 14% 13% 3% 242 West 34% 44% 11% 7% 3% 134 South Central 38% 40% 8% 12% 2% 155 Tidewater 55% 21% 5% 16% 2% 168

Gender Male 35% 38% 9% 15% 3% 362 Female 44% 34% 10% 9% 3% 450

Age 18-34 26% 42% 13% 17% 2% 80 35-44 38% 43% 11% 8% 0% 76 45-64 45% 35% 7% 11% 3% 333 65 and over 49% 27% 10% 10% 5% 323

Education High school 35% 40% 5% 16% 4% 167 grad or less Some college 41% 34% 13% 11% 2% 169 College 43% 33% 12% 9% 2% 476 graduate or more

Family Income Under 40% 38% 9% 8% 4% 191 $50,000 50K to under 47% 30% 9% 14% 0% 202 $100,000 $100,000 or 41% 37% 11% 10% 2% 277 more

Race White 37% 37% 10% 14% 3% 589 Minority 45% 34% 9% 8% 3% 223

Party ID Democrat 55% 35% 5% 2% 2% 253 Republican 34% 34% 11% 19% 2% 216 Independent 34% 36% 13% 15% 3% 325

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