Warner is seen as presidential, too By Stephen J. Farnsworth and Benjamin Hermerding US Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia) New Hampshire, but opted for a 2008 Senate race instead. Despite has long been one of the Old Dominion’s his previous presidential interest, a Warner 2016 campaign seems most popular politicians, and even in a tough highly unlikely if Clinton runs. Last summer, the senator headlined a year for the Democratic Party nationally fundraiser for Ready for Hillary, an organization dedicated to raising he enjoys what surveys say is a roughly money for Clinton’s widely anticipated 2016 run. ten percentage point lead going into the The Virginian most likely to enter the 2016 Democratic nomination November election. field, former US Senator Jim Webb, does not poll nearly as well within But that’s not all. Many of the state’s the state as Warner does. Webb tied for fourth with US Senator Elizabeth residents, it seems, also consider Virginia’s Warren (D-Mass.). Each had 5 percent support in the UMW survey. senior senator as presidential material. Another 6 percent of Virginians named Webb their second choice National polls show former Secretary of farnsworth for the Democratic presidential nomination. His total of 11 percent first State Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead in and second place votes lags well behind Clinton and Warner, as well early tests of the 2016 Democratic field, and as Biden, who was named by 20 percent of Virginians as their first or she is the top choice in the Old Dominion as second choice. well. But should Clinton choose not to run or While Virginians often vote in a “middle of pack” primary, national if she stumbles during the campaign, as she Democrats would be wise to take seriously the strength of Warner’s did in 2008, Mark Warner is the clear second appeal. The Old Dominion is not just a “purple” state in its presidential choice of Virginians. election politics; it is also far more like America than are Iowa and Clinton received the support of 33 percent New Hampshire, the first caucus and primary states. With its liberal of 1,000 adult Virginians in a University of Northern Virginia, its evangelical Southside, its agricultural heartland Mary Washington survey earlier this month, in the Shenandoah Valley and its industrial urban core in Hampton while Warner had the support of 14 percent. Roads, Democrats around the nation should take Virginia’s nomination (Another 15 percent said Warner would be Hermerding preferences very seriously. their second choice.) Vice President Joe Running mate debate, anyone? Biden ranked third, with 7 percent support in the 2016 field. Stephen J. Farnsworth is professor of political science and director So without even discussing a possible 2016 presidential campaign, of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of many Virginians say Warner should go for it. Clinton, the alternate Mary Washington. Benjamin Hermerding is a research associate at choice of 12 percent of Virginians, is the favorite or top alternate of the center. The UMW survey of 1,000 adult Virginians was conducted 45 percent of those surveyed. Warner ranked first or second with 29 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International during percent of those surveyed. October 1-6. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (500) Eight years ago, Warner raised millions of dollars and tested and cell phone (500), and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 the presidential waters in the early nomination states of Iowa and percentage points for the entire sample.V

Breaking Virginia Traditions By Toni-Michelle Travis Virginia governors have been held In 1989 Douglas Wilder became the first elected African American in high esteem since the days of colonial governor in Virginia and the U.S. This broke the tradition of an governors Thomas Jefferson and Patrick establishment white, male, Democrat or Republican who had usually Henry. While most governors do not have a served in the General Assembly before being elected governor. Wilder’s long-term impact on Virginia politics, a few close election sent the signal that African Americans in Virginia were have achieved a place in history by breaking now fully a part of the political process. Wilder’s administration also from tradition. Once tradition is broken shattered the myth that blacks could not governor in a judicious way. it is likely new laws will be written to set Recently, Governor McDonnell broke tradition not by tackling clear boundaries for governing or certain racial issues, but by bringing unwanted attention to Virginia’s lax powers will be restricted. Breaking tradition ethic laws. McDonnell’s interactions with businessman Jonnie R. can shatter a long held public image or an Williams Sr. called into question whether McDonnell sold his office in accepted myth which has been part of the exchange for lavish gifts and loans of $177,000. Virginia has usually political culture. Any drastic change in Virginia’s public image can been considered one of the least corrupt states. When McDonnell was potentially create an entirely new set of values in the political culture. found guilty on eleven counts of corruption he caused a real break The actions of three governors since 1954 have jolted Virginia’s with tradition by becoming the first Virginia governor to be indicted political arena and modified the political culture. Linwood Holton and convicted of a federal crime. McDonnell broke the tradition of became the first Republican governor in the twentieth century. After Virginia‘s public image of running a clean government. In addition, challenging the long accepted belief that only democrats would run he sullied the image of the governor being a “ Virginia gentleman,” Virginia government he defied the Virginia tradition of separation someone known for his integrity in the tradition of General Robert of the races. By walking his daughter to a predominantly African E. Lee. This will affect all future governors whose personal lives and American school in compliance with a Supreme Court decision to public acts will receive more scrutiny. Ethics laws will have to be integrate public schools he startled Virginians and the supporters of implemented as Virginia tries to repair its image and restore integrity to Massive Resistance. A picture of Governor Holton and his daughter the office of governor. made the front page of the New York Times. His defiance of local Virginia traditions can be good or bad. Reforms that are instituted tradition and the Byrd organization made him a symbol of a new as a result of Governor McDonnell’s conviction should be worthy of Virginia. This one gesture on the part of the governor ended the Virginia’s best traditions. Massive Resistance era when he declared, “The era of defiance is Toni-Michelle C. Travis is an Associate Professor of Government behind us.” Integration of public schools did not happen immediately, and Politics at George Mason University and a former Fellow of but clearly there was no turning back the clock. Oxford University’s Rothermere American Institute.V

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