Virginia Governor's Race, 1989

ThLJ VOL. 66, NO.6 JANUARY 1990 University ofVirginzeu NEWS LETTER Virginia Governor's Race, 1989 PART 2: THE GENERAL ELECTION by Larry]. Sabato The author is professor of government and foreign affairs at both for the history books and in headlines across the University of Virginia. This News Letter is drawn from the world. Virginia did what no American state the author's forthcoming Virginia Votes 1987-1990. Part 1 had ever done: it chose a black citizen to serve as of this series, on the nomination stage, was the July 1989 is its chief executive. That it did so in the closest guber sue; part 3, covering election issues, will appear as the Febru natorial contest in modern Virginia's history added ary issue. to the drama and the in- Not soon to be forgotten, trigue of the event. Not soon Virginia and Virginians to be forgotten, the 1989 mac;ie a great portion of this the 1989 election for governor election for governor not nation's history in the early not only transformed only transformed the state's years of the Republic. The the state's image beyond its borders image beyond its borders Old Dominion was arguably but was brimming with but was brimming with the most influential state, implications for the nation's and four of the first five U.S. implications for the nation's and and other states' politics. presidents were drawn from other states' politics. its citizenry. But for the nearly century and a quarter following the Civil War, General Election Results few would have characterized Virginia as a trend setter or history-maker. In a cliffhanger election night that saw the lead It was the 1985 election that first gave some seesaw back and forth, Democrat L. Douglas Wilder observers pause; the political triumphs of a black finally emerged the victor by the slim recounted candidate for lieutenant governor and a woman margin of 6,741 votes out of 1,789,078 cast. Both contender for attorney general could hardly be Wilder and his Republican challenger, J. Marshall ignored. But was it a fluke occurrence? The election Coleman, received far more votes than any winning of 1989 gave the answer-a response written gubernatorial candidate in past years-testament somewhat tentatively but in bold print nonetheless, to a large turnout as well as the closeness of the .*.~ *.. !!!!.* The University of Virginia News Letter is published by the Center for Public Service, 2015 Ivy Road, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903-1195. (804) 924-3396; TOO (804) 982-HEAR *.* THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA NEWS LETTER contest. The less than four-tenths Wilder won five of the ten Demographic Analysis of one percent difference between congressional districts: the New Remarkably, Wilder's the candidates' vote totals made port News-Hampton First, the Perhaps in response to the abor plurality was built this the closest gubernatorial elec Norfolk-Virginia Beach Second, tion issue, women disproportion from just twenty-two tion of the century, eclipsing the the Tidewater Fourth, and the ately favored the Democratic tight 1973 contest that had been Northern Virginia Eighth and ticket, and especially Doug Wilder. cities and twenty won by Republican Mills E. God Tenth. Wilder's 59.3 percent in the There was a six-point "gender two counties. win by the relatively comfortable Tenth was exceptionally large for gap" in the results, with women No statistic does margin of 1.4 percent.1 any Democrat; this was the only giving Wilder a 53 percent major more to illustrate the Making the victory sweeter district where Wilder exceeded ity while men backed Coleman by changing center for state Democrats was their third Gerald Baliles's proportion from the same margin. As is usually the of population gravity straight sweep of the top offices. four years earlier. His margins in case, women comprised a narrow in Virginia. Novice Donald Beyer and incum the Second and the Eighth (over majority of Virginia's election day bent Mary Sue Terry easily won 55 percent in each case) were also turnout, and this gave Wilder the the offices of lieutenant governor handsome, but his edgein the First edge even as the sexes split sym -. and attorney general; respectively (51.1 percent) was below normal metnca y. 1 e e gender gap Beyer breezed past the presumed for a Democrat. In the Fourth, is nothing new in either Virginia frontrunner, Republican Edwina regularly the most Democratic or American politics, it was double Dalton, with 54.1 percent of the district in the state, Wilder's pro the three-point gap that existed in vote, and Terry crushed the GOP's portion was remarkably low (52.2 the 1985 gubernatorial contest. Joseph Benedetti to secure her percent). Wilder's own 1985 race had exhib second consecutive landslide (this The usually Democratic ited no gender gap at all. time with 63.2 percent of the vote). Southwest Ninth fell entirely to the Terry's race also featured a Wilder's winning edge came GOP, with Coleman winning 51.8 significant 5 percent gender gap, in good measure from large mar percent. The Republican also up from just two points in 1985. gins accumulated in Northern captured the Richmond Third Interestingly, there was virtually Virginia and Hampton Roads. He narrowly (51.6 percent), and the no gender gap in the lieutenant lost most of the rest of the state, Roanoke Sixth and Piedmont governor's race, with men back except for the coal counties in Seventh with very comfortable ing Beyer at nearly the same rate Southwest Virginia, his hometown totals (54.0 percent and 57.2 per as women. This is remarkable in of Richmond, and a scattering of cent, respectively). A Coleman light of Beyer's targeted appeal to other places, including the col landslide (57.9 percent) was reg women on the abortion issue, an lege locales of Charlottesville istered in the Southside Fifth, the approach not unlike Wilder's. One Albemarle, Williamsburg, and old heart ofthe racially conserva possible explanation is that some MontgomeryCounty. By contrast, tive Byrd Organization. men, despite Republican leanings, Coleman captured the lion's share Both of the other statewide were simply unable to support two of territory, though not the vote races yielded lopsided results in women simultaneously for state rich population centers. He gained the congressional districts. Beyer wide office.2 majorities in seventy-three of the carried eight of the ten, losing only In an encore of the 1985 ninety-five counties and nineteen the Fifth and the Seventh (both pattern-but in contravention of of the forty-one cities-the most much more narrowly than Wil the national norm-younger vot localities won by a losing general der). His home region of North ers heavily favored the Democrats election candidate in this century. ern Virginia gave him enthusias while older voters were more Remarkably, Wilder's plurality tic backing that topped 60 percent. Republican. Wilder's support was was built from just twenty-two Terry of course swept all ten dis cities and twenty-two counties. tricts. The Fourth was her electoral No statistic does more to illustrate zenith (72.0 percent), the Seventh 2 Many reliable political observers re the changing center of population her nadir (55.4 percent). Only one ported such resistance during the campaign. The mood seemed espe gravity in Virginia. city (Harrisonburg) failed to fall cially prevalent among white men, who to Terry, and Benedetti won just faced the prospect of a governing sla te 1 Godwin defeated Independent seven counties, all usually heav composed of a black man and two Lieutenant Governor Henry E. Howell, ily Republican. Beyer's geographic women. Incidentally, if Virginia had JI. See Larry J. Sabato, Aftermath of reach, while broad, was more actually elected Wilder, Dalton, and Armageddon: An Analysis of the 1973 Terry, it would have been thefirst state Gubernatorial Election (Charlottesville: limited than Terry's; he secured in American history to have excluded Institute ofGovernment, University of twenty-seven cities (to Dalton's whitemales from statewide office. Vir Virginia, 1975). fourteen) and forty-seven counties ginia may have not been ready for two 2 (to Dalton's forty-eight). doses of history in the same year. JANUARY 1990 especially sensitive to age differ votes among Catholics. Coleman candidacies and the most inhos ences: about 56 percent of those carried 55 percent of the Catholic pitable to a pro-choice position on aged 18 to 44 backed him, but only ballots, but fortunately for Wilder, abortion. 46 percent from ages 45-59 did so, Catholics comprised only 14 per Throughout the campaign, while just 38 percent over age 60 cent of the total vote (well behind polls showed that Wilder drew pulled his lever. This breakdown the 51 percent who were white disproportionate support from may reflect two factors. First, Protestants). those who had migrated to Vir younger Virginians have been Unsurprisingly, Wilder cap ginia, while Coleman was backed raised in an era of racial tolerance tured 82 percent of those who more often by native Virginians. and as a consequence are proba characterized themselves as liber The CBS News/New York Times bly much more receptive to a black als, but remarkably, he also won exit poll did indeed find a differ candidacy than their elders. Sec a quarter of the conservatives' ential here, although a modest one. ond, women of child-bearing votes. Most importantly, though, About 44 percent of Wilder's vot years, especiallyyounger working the ideological center held for ers spent most of their childhood women, are especially sensitive to Doug Wilder: moderates gave him outside Virginia; only 38 percent the abortion issue and more likely a 58 percent landslide.

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