Contacts: Robyn McDougle, Ph.D. – Faculty Director, Farrah Stone Graham, Ph.D. – Survey Director Office of Public Policy Outreach (804) 305-3447 or [email protected] (804) 827-3290 or [email protected]
Almost half of Virginians want Confederate monuments left in place, remainder split on actions
RICHMOND, Va. (Jan. 9, 2018) — Virginians are split over what course of action to take with Confederate monuments, according to a new poll by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.
A plurality of 49 percent of adult state residents favor leaving Confederate statues in place as they are, while 46 percent favor some type of change. But those supporting changes are far from united — 23 percent of those surveyed favor moving the statues to museums, 13 percent favor adding context in the current location such as additional signage, and 10 percent favor removing the statues, according to the Winter 2017-18 Public Policy Poll conducted by the Wilder S hool’s Offi e of Pu li Poli Outrea h.
For comparison, exit polls conducted by The Washington Post follo i g Virgi ia’s No e er gubernatorial election that offered only two response options showed 57 percent of Virginians wanting monuments to stay in place and 39 percent supporting removal.
Ma sur e s ha e si pl asked folks hether the fa or o u e ts ei g re o ed or left i pla e, said Ro M Dougle, Ph.D., dire tor of the Offi e of Pu li Poli Outrea h. Pro idi g respo de ts additional options that range between those two choices gives policymakers important information about the nuances of public opinion on the issue. Our poll shows that a portion of each side on the issue would prefer options like additional signage in their current lo atio or re o al to a useu .
The poll, a random sample of 788 adults in Virginia conducted by landline and cell telephone from Dec. 8- 26, has a margin of error of 3.49 percentage points.
Significant differences of perspective exist along key demographic categories with Republicans, white respondents, those with a high school diploma or less of education, and those age 65 and older significantly more likely to favor leaving monuments in place. Figure 1: Geographic regions referenced: Northern Virginia (light blue); Northwest (purple); West (green); South Central (yellow); Tidewater (pink) Regionally, those in the West (65 percent) and Northwest (59 percent) were more likely to favor leaving monuments in place without any changes than those from Northern Virginia (37 percent).
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Likewise, of those in the poll who reported their choice in the 2017 gubernatorial election, 69 percent of voters who supported Republican Ed Gillespie want the monuments to remain as they are, compared to only 20 percent of those who backed Democrat Ralph Northam. However, a plurality of Northam voters (46 percent) prefer relocation of the monuments to a museum, compared to only 15 percent who want to see complete removal.
While no consensus exists on what to do with Confederate monuments, a large majority of the overall respondents (76 percent) are unwilling to pay for any changes to the monuments through increased taxes. Twenty-one percent would be willing to pay more in taxes to pay for changes or removal.
Those most frequently willing to pay are the 10 percent who favor complete removal — 63 percent of that group expressed willingness to pay more in taxes. Younger, more educated, and minority respondents were significantly more likely to be willing to pay more in taxes, though in no category was a majority willing to do so. Regionally, Northern Virginia led in willingness to pay higher taxes (31 percent) compared to the Northwest (9 percent) and West (7 percent).
For a PDF of the 13-page report including complete question wording and detailed tables of results, go to http://wilder.vcu.edu/office-of-public-policy-outreach/
On Tuesday, Jan. 16, the Wilder S hool’s Offi e of Public Policy Outreach will release further poll results easuri g Virgi ia s’ ie s o issues of public safety, economic development, and K-12 and higher education. On Jan. 5, the Wilder School released its first poll results showing that more than one in five oters i Virgi ia’s re e t gu er atorial ele tio sa the ade their de isio i respo se to the Tru p administration.
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About VCU and VCU Health
Virginia Commonwealth University is a major, urban public research university with national and international rankings in sponsored research. Located in downtown Richmond, VCU enrolls more than 31,000 students in 220 degree and certificate programs in the arts, sciences and humanities. Seventy- i e of the p og a s a e u i ue i Vi gi ia, a y of the c ossi g the discipli es of VCU’s 13 schools and one college. The VCU Health brand represents the health sciences schools of VCU, the VCU Massey Cancer Center and the VCU Health System, which comprises VCU Medical Center (the only academic edical ce te a d Level I t au a ce te i the egio ), Co u ity Me o ial Hospital, Child e ’s Hospital of Richmond at VCU, MCV Physicians and Virginia Premier Health Plan. For more, please visit www.vcu.edu and vcuhealth.org.
2 On Confederate Monuments, a Divided Public
As localities across the commonwealth face questions about Confederate monuments on public property, the public remains split over what course of action to take. A plurality of 49 percent favor leaving Confederate statues in place as they are, while 46 Confederate Monuments Thinking about the monuments to Confederate percent favor some type of figures in Virginia which of the following courses of action do you favor? change. But those favoring a change are far from united All - Wilder Poll 49 13 23 10 6 WaPost e it… 57 39 on the best course — 23 West 65 5 17 10 3 percent of those surveyed Northwest 59 6 23 1 11 South Central 49 22 17 8 4 favor moving the statues to Tidewater 46 12 27 13 2 museums, 13 percent favor Northern VA 37 15 28 13 8 adding context in the current Gillespie 69 14 11 3 3 Hyra 63 7 22 7 0 location such as additional Northam 20 16 46 15 4 signage, and 10 percent favor 65+ 61 12 19 5 4 removing statues all 45-64 51 14 23 8 4 35-44 51 14 22 7 5 together. For comparison, 18-34 31 12 32 18 7 exit polls conducted by The White 60 15 18 4 3 Minority Washington Post following 25 8 33 24 9 Virgi ia’s gu er atorial HS grad or less 62 11 12 7 8 Some college 47 9 25 15 3 election that offered only College_+ 35 18 34 9 4 two response options Republican 75 11 8 5 1 showed 57 percent wanting Independent 49 13 17 8 13 Democrat 28 15 37 15 5 monuments to stay in place 0 20 40 60 80 100 and 39 percent favoring Leave them in place as they are Add context in the current location such as additional signage removal.1 The contrast of the Relocate to museums Remove all together two polls suggests a portion Do ’t K o /Refused of each side on the issue Source: 2017-18 Winter Public Policy Poll, L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs
1 See full results of that exit poll at - https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/virginia- politics/governor-exit-polls/?utm_term=.828f10b67814
3 would prefer options like additional signage in their current location or removal to a museum. Regional differences on the question were striking. Almost a majority (49 percent) of residents in South Central, which includes Richmond and its Monument Avenue tourist destination, want to leave monuments as they are, with a second most popular option in the South Central region being adding context. In contrast, those in the West (65 percent) and Northwest (59 percent) were more likely to favor leaving monuments in place without any changes than were those from Northern Virginia (37 percent). The Tidewater area showed 46 percent support for leaving monuments as they are. In these four other regions, the second most popular option was removal of monuments to a museum. Significant differences of perspective exist along key demographic categories with Republicans, white respondents, those with a high school diploma or less of education, and those 65 and older significantly more likely to favor leaving monuments in place. Republicans, at 75 percent, were far more likely to support monuments remaining as they are than were independents, at 49 percent, or Democrats at only 28 percent. The plurality of Democrats (37 percent) would like to see monuments removed to museums, while only 15 percent support removal all together. Adding context in the current location such as additional signage was a preferred action for a small portion of all political identification groups — 11 percent of Republicans, 13 percent of independents and 15 percent of Democrats selected this option. Though not as pronounced as the partisan divide, white respondents (60 percent) were significantly more likely to want monuments left as they are compared to only 25 percent of minority respondents who said the same. Among white respondents, the next most popular course of action was to move monuments to museums — a course favored by 18 percent. Minority responses were more evenly split, with 33 percent supporting a relocation to museums and 24 percent supporting removal altogether. Those with a high school diploma or less of education (62 percent) were more likely to support leaving monuments as they are compared to those with some college (47 percent) and those with a college degree or more (35 percent). Among college degree holders, removal of monuments to a museum, at 34 percent, was almost as popular as leaving monuments as they are, while 18 percent of those ith a ollege degree supported addi g o te t i a o u e t’s urre t lo atio . Age was another important factor, with older Virginians more likely to support monuments remaining unchanged. Those 65 and older, at 61 percent, were significantly more likely to favor leaving monuments in place than other age cohorts. Fifty-one percent of respondents ages 35 to 44 and 45 to
4 64 supported leaving monuments as they are, while those ages 18 to 34 were evenly split between leaving monuments as they are (31 percent) and relocating monuments to a museum (32 percent). Likewise, of those in the poll who reported their choice in the 2017 gubernatorial election, 69 percent of Republican Ed Gillespie voters want the monuments to remain as they are, compared to only 20 percent of Democrat Ralph Northam voters. However, the plurality of Northam voters (46 percent) prefer relocation of the monuments to a museum, compared to only 15 percent who want to see complete removal. Finally, men were more likely to favor leaving monuments as they are than were women — 54 percent to 44 percent, respectively.
5 Strong majority unwilling to pay for monument changes
While no consensus Willing to pay for changes to monuments? exists on what to do with Would you be willing to pay more in taxes to pay for changes to or removal of monuments? Confederate monuments, a large majority of the overall All 21 76 4 respondents (76 percent) are West 7 89 4 Northwest 9 82 9 unwilling to pay for any South Central 16 79 5 changes to the monuments Tidewater 25 72 3 Northern VA 31 67 2 through increased taxes. Half White 15 83 3 of those who support Minority 33 60 6 relocating monuments to 65+ 12 87 1 museums (50 percent) and 45-64 20 75 5 35-44 three-fourths of those who 15 84 0 18-34 32 62 6 prefer adding context (75 HS grad or less 8 85 6 percent) are unwilling to pay College_+ 28 70 1 more in taxes in order to see Some college 27 69 5 changes made to Republican 7 91 2 Independent 16 74 10 Confederate monuments. Democrat 34 63 3 In contrast, 21 0 20 40 60 80 100 percent would be willing to Willing Not Willing Don't know/Refused pay more in taxes to pay for Source: 2017- Wi ter Pu li Poli Poll, VCU’s Offi e for Pu li Poli Outrea h, L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs changes or removal. Those most frequently willing to pay are the 10 percent who favor complete removal — 63 percent of that small group expressed willingness to pay more in taxes. Younger, more educated, and minority respondents were significantly more likely to be willing to pay more in taxes, though in no category was a majority willing to do so. Thirty-two percent of 18- to 34-year-olds were willing to pay higher taxes, compared to 15 percent of 35- to 44-year-olds; 20 percent of 45- to 64-year-olds; and only 12 percent of those 65 years or older. Those with a college degree (28 percent) or some college (27 percent) were more frequently willing to pay more in taxes to see changes made to monuments, compared to only 8 percent of those with a high school degree or less who said the same. Thirty-three percent of minority respondents would be willing to pay more in taxes for
6 changes to monuments, compared to only 15 percent of white respondents. Regionally, Northern Virginia led in willingness to pay higher taxes (31 percent) compared to the Northwest (9 percent) and West (7 percent). Further insights are available by reviewing detailed sub-group analysis tables on pages 12-13.
7 VCU Wilder School 2017-18 Winter Public Policy Poll Methodology and Sample Information
SUMMARY
The Winter 2017-18 Public Policy Poll, conducted by the Office of Public Policy Outreach at Virginia Co o ealth U i ersit ’s L. Douglas Wilder S hool of Go er e t a d Pu li Affairs, obtained telephone interviews among 788 respondents. The telephone surveys were conducted with respondents 18+ years old, living across 5 areas/regions in Virginia. Issues and Answers Network, Inc. conducted the surveys between December 8 and December 26, 2017. Interviews were conducted with 392 landline (49.7%) and 396 cell (50.3%) phone with soft quotas implemented by region and gender. The average interview length was 16 minutes and conducted in English.
As with the previous wave, the same contact procedures were used for the landline and cell samples. For the landline sample, the program was set up to ask for the youngest adult male/female currently at home. If the specific gender was not available at the time of the call, the interviewer would ask to speak with the youngest male/female currently at home. For the cell phone sample, interviews were conducted with the person answering the phone. The program was set up to verify the respondent was an adult and in a safe place to take the survey. Both sample sources verified they were residents of Virginia.
The data was weighted using an iterative raking technique in WinCross that uses iterative proportional fitting techniques. This method avoids negative weights. Respondents were weighted on several demographics to match a previous wave of this study data and to maintain levels of non-response for each question. The previous study was weighted to 2010 U.S. Census data. The demographics weighted on were:
1. Age 2. Gender 3. Race/Hispanic identity 4. Education 5. Region 6. Population Density 7. HH Telephone Use
The sur e ’s argi of error is +/- 3.49 percentage points, meaning that we are 95 percent confident that the actual result lies within 3.49 percentage points (in either direction) of the result our sample produced. The chart on the following page shows unweighted and weighted data for demographic items including those used in developing weights.
8 Demographic information on the survey respondents is below. December 2017 Poll December 2017 Poll Category Parameter (Unweighted) (Weighted)
Age 18-24 12.7% 2.8% 12.3% 25-34 17.9% 7.2% 16.2% 35-44 16.9% 8.6% 16.6% 45-54 18.0% 18.4% 18.3% 55-64 16.4% 19.4% 17.3% 65+ 18.1% 37.1% 19.3% Refused 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% Gender Male 48.2% 47.7% 48.5% Female 51.8% 52.3% 51.5% Race/Ethnicity White/Not Hispanic 65.2% 71.8% 67.6% Black/Not Hispanic 18.1% 14.5% 18.0% Hispanic 7.9% 2.9% 6.1% Other/Not Hispanic 8.8% 5.5% 8.3% Don't Know, Refused 0.0% 5.3% 5.3% Education High school or less 35.9% 19.8% 35.5% Some college/Assoc. Degree 29.9% 26.5% 28.0% College graduate or more 34.2% 51.3% 36.5% Don't know, refused 0.0% 2.4% 2.4% Region Northwest 13.6% 12.4% 13.4% Northern VA 30.0% 28.9% 30.6% West 17.0% 18.2% 17.0% South Central 17.1% 17.8% 17.4% Tidewater 22.3% 22.7% 21.6% Density 1 Lowest 20.8% 16.9% 21.3% 2 12.3% 24.4% 11.7% 3 15.4% 21.3% 15.6% 4 18.2% 22.3% 18.5% 5 Highest 33.3% 15.1% 32.9% HH Telephone Use LLO 3.5% 5.1% 3.4% Dual 48.5% 69.2% 50.6% CPO 48.0% 25.7% 46.0%
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The sample for the Educational Study was pulled using two distinct sampling frames, as follows:
o Enhanced-Wireless™: The Enhanced-Wireless™ sa pli g frame is based upon a database of approximately 125,000,000 known wireless phones. Enhanced-Wireless™ is based upon a combination of self-reported data, product purchase data, warranty card information, survey data, and other proprietary sources. o Gender Targeting . 48.20% Males . 51.80% Females
Landline Listed: Landline Listed telephone sample is traditionally considered a good option for selecting productive sample targeted toward specific groups. This type of sample is referred to as listed e ause this fra e o sists pri aril of perso s that are listed i telepho e directories. The data is largel ased upo a hite page telepho e data ase hi h is augmented with a large variety of data sources such as warranty cards, self-reported information, survey data, and internet based data collection — just to name a few. o 15,000 Records o No gender targeting Each sample was limited to the 5 regions provided, which were defined by a combination 133 FIPS codes
Both of these samples were generated using stratified random sampling. This stratification reduces sampling error and helps ensure proper coverage.
10 2017-18 Winter Pu li Poli y Poll, VCU’s Offi e for Pu li Poli y Outrea h, L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs State-wide survey of Virginians2 December 8-26, 2017 Number of Respondents: 788
QUESTIONS 1 THROUGH 5 HELD FOR SEPARATE RELEASE
QUESTIONS 6 THROUGH 7 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
QUESTIONS 8 THROUGH 16 HELD FOR SEPARATE RELEASE
ASK ALL Q17. Thinking about the monuments to Confederate figures in Virginia which of the following courses of action do you favor? % Leave them in place as they are 49 Add context in the current location such 13 as additional signage Relocate to museums 23 Remove all together 10 Do ’t K o /Refused 6
Q18. Would you be willing to pay more in taxes to pay for changes to or removal of monuments? % Willing 21 Not willing 76 Do ’t K o /Refused 4
QUESTIONS 19 THROUGH 20 HELD FOR SEPARATE RELEASE
2 Percentages may add to 99 or 101 due to rounding. Cells that are blank contain no cases. Cells with a zero percent entry contain cases, but the percentage is less than 0.5%.
11 Tables for Subgroup Analysis
Q17. Thinking about the monuments to Confederate figures in Virginia which of the following courses of action do you favor? Add context in the current Leave them location such Relocate Remove Do ’t in place as as additional to all Know/ Number they are signage museums together Refused of cases
All adults 49% 13% 23% 10% 6% 788
VA Region Northwest 59% 6% 23% 1% 11% 98 Northern VA 37% 15% 28% 13% 8% 228 West 65% 5% 17% 10% 3% 143 South Central 49% 22% 17% 8% 4% 140 Tidewater 46% 12% 27% 13% 2% 179
Gender Men 54% 13% 22% 4% 7% 376 Women 44% 12% 24% 15% 4% 412
Age 18-34 31% 12% 32% 18% 7% 79 35-44 51% 14% 22% 7% 5% 68 45-64 51% 14% 23% 8% 4% 298 65 and older 61% 12% 19% 5% 4% 292
Education H.S. or less 62% 11% 12% 7% 8% 156 Some college 47% 9% 25% 15% 3% 209 College grad or more 35% 18% 34% 9% 4% 404
Family Income Under $50,000 48% 4% 25% 17% 5% 147 50K to under $100,000 43% 16% 26% 12% 4% 187 $100,000 or more 46% 20% 24% 5% 5% 178
Race White 60% 15% 18% 4% 3% 566 Minority 25% 8% 33% 24% 9% 178
Party ID Democrat 28% 15% 37% 15% 5% 349
Republican 75% 11% 8% 5% 1% 272
Independent 49% 13% 17% 8% 13% 117
Q6b - Vote for Northam 20% 16% 46% 15% 4% 252
Governor Gillespie 69% 14% 11% 3% 3% 178
Hyra 63% 7% 22% 7% 0% 11
Q18 - Willing to Willing 2% 13% 52% 30% 3% 146 pay for changes Not Willing 63% 13% 15% 4% 4% to monuments? 619
12 Q18. Would you be willing to pay more in taxes to pay for changes to or removal of monuments? Do ’t K o / Willing Not Willing Refused Number of cases
All adults 21% 76% 4% 788
VA Region Northwest 9% 82% 9% 98 Northern VA 31% 67% 2% 228 West 7% 89% 4% 143 South Central 16% 79% 5% 140 Tidewater 25% 72% 3% 179
Gender Men 17% 79% 4% 376 Women 23% 72% 4% 412
Age 18-34 32% 62% 6% 79 35-44 15% 84% 0% 68 45-64 20% 75% 5% 298 65 and older 12% 87% 1% 292
Education H.S. or less 8% 85% 6% 156 Some college 27% 69% 5% 209 College grad or more 28% 70% 1% 404
Family Income Under $50,000 25% 72% 2% 147 50K to under $100,000 24% 72% 3% 187 $100,000 or more 22% 78% 0% 178
Race White 15% 83% 3% 566 Minority 33% 60% 6% 178
Party Democrat 34% 63% 3% 349 identification Republican 7% 91% 2% 272
Independent 16% 74% 10% 117
Q6b - Vote for Northam 42% 55% 2% 252
Governor Gillespie 9% 88% 2% 178
Hyra 22% 78% 0% 11
Q17 - Favored Leave in place as they are 1% 98% 1% 395 course of action Add context in current 21% 75% 4% 123 for monuments location such as
additional signage Relocate to museums 45% 50% 5% 180 Remove all together 63% 33% 5% 55
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