Virginia Commonwealth University

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACTS: L. Douglas Wilder Phone: (804) 827-0776 Email: [email protected]

Robyn McDougle Director, Center for Public Policy Phone: (804) 721-6703 Email: [email protected]

A majority of Virginians now say they are very likely to receive the COVID-19 vaccine

RICHMOND, Va. (Jan. 14, 2021) — More than 7 in 10 Virginians say they are likely to get a COVID-19 vaccine, according to a new statewide Commonwealth Poll conducted by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.

This represents an increase of 13 percentage points compared to September 2020 (58% saying very or somewhat likely). The increase in those who said very likely was significant for both whites and minorities, with an increase of 14 percentage points for whites and 8 percentage points for minorities compared to September 2020.

Democrats were the most likely, with 88% saying they were likely to get vaccinated. Those with higher levels of education and income were also more likely, 82% of those with a family income of over $100,000 per year and 80% of those with a college degree said they were likely to get the vaccine. Residents living in Northern Virginia and the South Central and Tidewater regions were the most likely, with 87%, 74% and 68% respectively. The Northwest and West regions were less likely, each with 53%.

“We see the importance of addressing the effects of COVID relative to improved health care needs in areas that have been previously neglected such as education, health and employment,” said former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder.

A strong majority of Virginians (64%) support having a federal-level mask mandate, while 36% said they oppose the measure. Democrats and minorities were the most likely to be supportive, with 93% and 77% respectively. Again, there were regional differences with Northern Virginia, Tidewater and the South Central regions being more supportive with 73%, 69% and 60% and the West and Northwest regions were less likely to support the measure, with 51% and 50% respectively.

“There is a clear disconnect between what the people want relative to vaccination administration and the vaccine implementation plan provided by Gov. Ralph Northam’s administration to date,” Wilder said.

Among the poll’s key findings:

 A majority (54%) of Virginians think it’s safe to send children and personnel back to in-person classes in the winter. This represents a 12 percentage point increase from September 2020 (42%). Men were more likely than women to think it’s safe (62% versus 48%) and whites were more likely than minorities (64% versus 37%). Republicans were most likely to think it is safe with 78% compared to 57% of independents and 28% of Democrats. There were regional differences with the Northwest and West regions thinking it was more safe, with 67% and 64% respectively. The South Central region and Northern Virginia were less likely to say it was very or somewhat safe with 54% and 51%. Tidewater was the least likely with 45%.  Virginians are most concerned with employment and health care being impacted by the pandemic, with 34% and 33% noting those as the greatest concern. One-quarter said education was the greatest concern and 5% said housing.  Seven in 10 residents think broadband internet access needs to be expanded and available to all Virginians.  Nineteen percent of Virginians report receiving financial assistance from the state related to the coronavirus pandemic, such as the Paycheck Protection Program or unemployment benefits.

The Commonwealth Poll Winter 2021 involved telephone interviews with a representative sample of 827 adults, age 18 or older, living in Virginia. Interviews were conducted by landline (413) and cellphone (414, including 254 without a landline) from Dec 11-30. The margin of error for the complete set of weighted data is 5.39 percentage points.

For the full poll results and analysis, visit https://oppo.vcu.edu/policy-poll/.

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About the VCU L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Ranked No. 45 among 275 graduate schools of public affairs by U.S. News and World Report and No. 39 in Public Management & Leadership, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University advances excellence in governance and promotes evidence-based public policy in Virginia and beyond. The school offers an array of graduate, post baccalaureate and doctoral programs in virtually every policy area including criminal justice, homeland security and emergency preparedness, public administration, public policy and administration, and urban and regional studies and planning. Additionally, the Wilder School is home to a robust Center for Public Policy that provides applied research in the areas of state and local government, social equity, and leadership and a range of services to clients in state and local government, nonprofit organizations, businesses and the general public. Learn more at wilder.vcu.edu.

About VCU and VCU Health Virginia Commonwealth University is a major, urban public research university with national and international rankings in sponsored research. Located in downtown Richmond, VCU enrolls more than 30,000 students in 233 degree and certificate programs in the arts, sciences and humanities. Twenty-two of the programs are unique in Virginia, many of them crossing the disciplines of VCU’s 11 schools and three colleges. The VCU Health brand represents the VCU health sciences academic programs, the VCU Massey Cancer Center and the VCU Health System, which comprises VCU Medical Center (the only academic medical center in the region), Community Memorial Hospital, Children’s Hospital of Richmond at VCU, and MCV Physicians. The clinical enterprise includes a collaboration with Sheltering Arms Institute for physical rehabilitation services. For more, please visit www.vcu.edu and vcuhealth.org.

ABOUT THE VCU WILDER SCHOOL COMMONWEALTH POLL

For nearly three decades, the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll within the Center for Public Policy has been an important bellwether for policymakers in Virginia and beyond on a range of topics, including voting intentions, economic and workforce development, education, housing, public health, public safety and racial equity. The Commonwealth Poll is a featured 2020 Presidential Election Poll by CNN, approved based on a rigorous review of methodologies and assumptions that ensure that CNN- cited polling entities are employing the gold standard in public opinion research.

Methodology

The Commonwealth Poll Winter 2021, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth University, obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 827 adults, age 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (413) and cellphone (414, including 254 without a landline). The data collection was conducted by Responsive Management from Dec 11-30. Statistical results are weighted to correct for known demographic discrepancies. A two-stage weighting procedure was used to weight this dual-frame sample by the demographic characteristics of sex, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and region using the geographic and demographic weighting parameters from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 American Community Survey data. The margin of error for the complete set of weighted data is 5.39 percentage points. The sample consisted of a combination of listed landline and cellular random digit dial samples. The overall sample was representative of the adult general population of Virginia who have access to either a listed landline or cellular telephone. Both samples were provided by Marketing Systems Group, a leader in providing research-based statistical samples. The cellular sample was prescreened for disconnected numbers. As many as seven attempts were made to contact each landline telephone number, and as many as five attempts were made to contact each cellphone number. Calls were made at different times of the day and on different days of the week to maximize the chance of contacting potential respondents. Response rates are computed according to American Association for Public Opinion Research standards.1 The response rate for the landline sample was 8.1%. The response rate for the cellular sample was 8.0%.

1 The American Association for Public Opinion Research. 2016. Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates for Surveys, 9th Edition. AAPOR.

Wilder School Commonwealth Poll Jan 2021 State-wide survey of Virginians1 December 11-30, 2020 Number of Respondents: 827

QUESTIONS 1 THROUGH 4 HELD FOR SEPARATE RELEASE

Thinking about funding from the federal government, the Commonwealth of Virginia has received $3.1 billion to assist with the pandemic.

Q5. Have you or your family received financial assistance from the state that is related to the coronavirus pandemic, such as the Paycheck Protection Program or unemployment benefit? 2021 % Yes 19 No 80 Don’t know/Refused 1

QUESTIONS 6 THROUGH 8 HELD FOR SEPARATE RELEASE

Q9. Given the coronavirus pandemic, do you support or oppose having a federal-level mandate requiring masks to be worn indoors? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 2021 % Strongly support 51 Somewhat support 13 Somewhat oppose 7 Strongly oppose 29 Don’t know/Refused 0

Q10. If an FDA-approved vaccine to prevent coronavirus was available right now at no cost, how likely would you be to get vaccinated? 2021 Sept 2020 % % Very likely 51 38 Somewhat likely 20 20 Not too likely 10 13 Not at all likely 20 27 Don’t know/Refused - 2

1 Percentages may add to 99 or 101 due to rounding. Cells that are blank contain no cases. Cells with a zero percent entry contain cases, but the percentage is less than 0.5%.

Q11. We know that nursing homes and assisted living facilities have been at the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic outbreak in Virginia. Do you approve or disapprove of prioritizing that any approved coronavirus vaccine go to nursing homes and assisted living facilities in Virginia? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 2021 % Strongly approve 73 Somewhat approve 16 Somewhat disapprove 4 Strongly disapprove 6 Don’t know/Refused 1

Q12. Given the coronavirus pandemic, how safe do you think it is to send children and school personnel back to schools in your community for in-person classes this winter? 2021 Sept 2020 % % Very safe 20 16 Somewhat safe 34 26 Not too safe 21 18 Not at all safe 23 37 Don’t know/Refused 1 3

Q13. During the pandemic, many people have been using broadband internet for remote learning and telework. To what extent do you feel broadband internet access needs to be expanded to be available to all Virginians? 2021 % A great extent 71 Somewhat 18 Not too much 5 Not at all 4 Don’t know/Refused 1

Q14. The coronavirus pandemic has affected many areas of life. In which one of the following areas does the impact cause you the greatest level of concern? (READ AND RANDOMIZE) 2021 % Healthcare 33 Education 25 Employment 34 Housing 5 Don’t know/Refused 4

Q15. How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast in the 2020 election? 2021 % Very confident 48 Somewhat confident 11 Not too confident 11 Not at all confident 29 Don’t know/Refused 1

Q16. How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately counted in the 2020 election? 2021 % Very confident 48 Somewhat confident 11 Not too confident 11 Not at all confident 29 Don’t know/Refused 1

Tables for subgroup analysis2

Q5: Have you or your family received financial assistance from the state that is related to the coronavirus pandemic, such as the Paycheck Protection Program or unemployment benefit?

on t know / Number of Yes No Refused Cases All Adults 19% 80% 1% 827

VA Region Northwest 27% 73% 0% 115

NOVA 17% 83% 0% 256 West 12% 87% 1% 133

South Central 16% 83% 1% 145 Tidewater 26% 73% 2% 178 Gender Male 17% 82% 1% 435 Female 21% 78% 1% 392

Age 18-34 25% 74% 1% 90 35-44 26% 74% 0% 86 45-64 18% 81% 1% 293 65 and over 11% 88% 1% 358

Education High school 23% 77% 0% 154 grad or less Some college 17% 82% 2% 218 College 17% 82% 1% 455 graduate or

Family Income Under 29% 71% 1% 194 $50,000 50K to under 22% 78% 0% 219 $100,000 $100,000 or 15% 84% 1% 286 more

Race White 16% 83% 0% 609 Minority 25% 74% 2% 218

Party ID Democrat 29% 70% 1% 242 Republican 15% 85% 0% 217 Independent 16% 83% 1% 346

2 Cells with 0% may have observations but are less than 1%. Cells may add to 99% or 101% due to rounding.

Q9. Given the coronavirus pandemic, do you support or oppose having a federal-level mandate requiring masks to be worn indoors? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly on t know / Number of approve approve disapprove disapprove Refused Cases All Adults 51% 13% 7% 29% 0% 827

VA Region Northwest 37% 13% 11% 38% 1% 115 NOVA 62% 11% 6% 20% 0% 256 West 37% 14% 14% 35% 1% 133 South Central 50% 10% 7% 33% 0% 145 Tidewater 54% 15% 3% 29% 0% 178 Gender Male 45% 13% 7% 34% 0% 435 Female 56% 12% 8% 24% 1% 392

Age 18-34 53% 19% 4% 24% 0% 90 35-44 50% 11% 7% 32% 0% 86 45-64 45% 9% 12% 33% 1% 293 65 and over 54% 12% 5% 28% 1% 358

Education High school 50% 19% 8% 32% 1% 154 grad or less Some college 42% 11% 10% 31% 0% 218 College 57% 9% 6% 25% 0% 455 graduate or more

Family Income Under 48% 12% 12% 26% 1% 194 $50,000 50K to under 47% 10% 7% 37% 0% 219 $100,000 $100,000 or 59% 17% 5% 27% 0% 286 more

Race White 43% 12% 8% 35% 0% 609 Minority 64% 13% 6% 18% 0% 218

Party ID Democrat 84% 9% 3% 4% 0% 242 Republican 24% 18% 8% 50% 0% 217 Independent 45% 13% 7% 35% 1% 346

Q10. If an FDA-approved vaccine to prevent coronavirus was available right now at no cost, how likely would you be to get vaccinated?

Somewhat Not too Not at all on t know / Number of Very likely likely likely likely Refused Cases All Adults 51% 20% 10% 20% 0% 827

VA Region Northwest 42% 11% 16% 31% 0% 115 NOVA 70% 17% 5% 8% 0% 256 West 36% 17% 10% 36% 0% 133 South Central 40% 34% 12% 15% 0% 145 Tidewater 49% 19% 10% 21% 1% 178 Gender Male 53% 17% 13% 16% 0% 435 Female 48% 22% 7% 24% 0% 392

Age 18-34 46% 20% 16% 19% 0% 90 35-44 42% 16% 15% 27% 0% 86 45-64 43% 26% 5% 25% 0% 293 65 and over 69% 13% 7% 11% 0% 358

Education High school 40% 23% 14% 23% 0% 154 grad or less Some college 44% 21% 7% 27% 0% 218 College 65% 15% 8% 12% 0% 455 graduate or more

Family Income Under 41% 17% 13% 29% 0% 194 $50,000 50K to under 40% 33% 9% 18% 0% 219 $100,000 $100,000 or 70% 12% 2% 16% 0% 286 more

Race White 51% 18% 9% 21% 0% 609 Minority 50% 23% 10% 17% 0% 218

Party ID Democrat 69% 19% 5% 7% 0% 242 Republican 41% 19% 12% 28% 0% 217 Independent 46% 21% 12% 21% 0% 346

Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly on t know / Number of approve approve disapprove disapprove Refused Cases All Adults 73% 16% 4% 6% 1% 827

VA Region Northwest 63% 11% 16% 10% 1% 115 NOVA 82% 16% 1% 1% 0% 256 West 68% 16% 5% 11% 0% 133 South Central 67% 21% 4% 6% 1% 145 Tidewater 76% 16% 1% 5% 2% 178 Gender Male 71% 19% 5% 4% 1% 435 Female 76% 13% 3% % 1% 392

Age 18-34 62% 28% 5% 5% 0% 90 35-44 77% 8% 2% 12% 1% 86 45-64 77% 14% 5% 5% 0% 293 65 and over 79% 11% 4% 4% 2% 358

Education High school 68% 17% 7% 7% 1% 154 grad or less Some college 68% 20% 2% 8% 2% 218 College 81% 13% 3% 3% 0% 455 graduate or more

Family Income Under 65% 23% 4% 7% 1% 194 $50,000 50K to under 80% 10% 2% 6% 1% 219 $100,000 $100,000 or 78% 16% 3% 3% 0% 286 more

Race White 77% 13% 4% 5% 1% 609 Minority 67% 23% 5% 6% 0% 218

Party ID Democrat 77% 19% 2% 2% 0% 242 Republican 74% 15% 4% 7% 1% 217 Independent 72% 17% 4% 7% 1% 346

Q12. Given the coronavirus pandemic, how safe do you think it is to send children and school personnel back to schools in your community for in-person classes this winter?

Somewhat Not at all on t know / Number of Very safe safe Not too safe safe Refused Cases All Adults 20% 34% 21% 23% 1% 827

VA Region Northwest 24% 43% 15% 18% 1% 115 NOVA 20% 31% 23% 26% 1% 256 West 20% 44% 24% 11% 1% 133 South Central 18% 36% 18% 27% 2% 145 Tidewater 20% 25% 23% 31% 1% 178 Gender Male 26% 36% 17% 21% 1% 435 Female 15% 33% 25% 26% 1% 392

Age 18-34 10% 33% 32% 25% 1% 90 35-44 17% 24% 21% 37% 0% 86 45-64 27% 40% 15% 18% 0% 293 65 and over 24% 34% 17% 23% 2% 358

Education High school 19% 36% 20% 24% 1% 154 grad or less Some college 23% 30% 21% 25% 1% 218 College 19% 36% 22% 21% 1% 455 graduate or more

Family Income Under 18% 31% 22% 28% 0% 194 $50,000 50K to under 22% 38% 17% 23% 0% 219 $100,000 $100,000 or 20% 34% 27% 18% 1% 286 more

Race White 24% 40% 17% 18% 1% 609 Minority 14% 23% 29% 33% 0% 218

Party ID Democrat 8% 20% 33% 39% 0% 242 Republican 29% 49% 13% 8% 0% 217 Independent 23% 34% 19% 23% 1% 346

A great Not too on t know / Number of extent Somewhat much Not at all Refused Cases All Adults 71% 18% 5% 4% 1% 827

VA Region Northwest 75% 13% 3% 7% 2% 115 NOVA 77% 16% 4% 3% 0% 256 West 66% 16% 12% 4% 2% 133 South Central 58% 33% 5% 3% 2% 145 Tidewater 73% 15% 4% 7% 2% 178 Gender Male 65% 20% 7% 7% 1% 435 Female 76% 17% 4% 2% 1% 392

Age 18-34 72% 22% 3% 2% 1% 90 35-44 88% 6% 2% 4% 0% 86 45-64 70% 16% 8% 6% 1% 293 65 and over 62% 24% 6% 5% 3% 358

Education High school 63% 22% 6% 6% 2% 154 grad or less Some college 72% 17% 4% 5% 2% 218 College 76% 16% 5% 2% 1% 455 graduate or more

Family Income Under 77% 12% 4% 5% 1% 194 $50,000 50K to under 63% 26% 4% 5% 1% 219 $100,000 $100,000 or 73% 17% 6% 3% 1% 286 more

Race White 66% 20% 6% 5% 2% 609 Minority 79% 15% 3% 3% 0% 218

Party ID Democrat 84% 13% 2% 0% 0% 242 Republican 59% 24% 6% 7% 3% 217 Independent 69% 19% 7% 4% 1% 346

Q14. The coronavirus pandemic has affected many areas of life. In which one of the following areas does the impact cause you the greatest level of concern?

on t know / Number of Healthcare Education Employment Housing Refused Cases All Adults 33% 25% 34% 5% 4% 827

VA Region Northwest 35% 21% 29% 11% 4% 115 NOVA 39% 27% 29% 4% 2% 256 West 40% 19% 29% 4% 8% 133 South Central 25% 28% 38% 5% 4% 145 Tidewater 22% 28% 43% 4% 3% 178 Gender Male 32% 25% 36% 4% 4% 435 Female 34% 25% 31% 6% 3% 392

Age 18-34 23% 24% 47% 3% 3% 90 35-44 26% 39% 16% 15% 3% 86 45-64 34% 26% 34% 3% 3% 293 65 and over 44% 19% 27% 4% 6% 358

Education High school 24% 18% 48% 6% 3% 154 grad or less Some college 40% 28% 25% 5% 3% 218 College 35% 29% 27% 4% 5% 455 graduate or more

Family Income Under 35% 12% 40% 11% 2% 194 $50,000 50K to under 28% 25% 40% 3% 4% 219 $100,000 $100,000 or 32% 36% 26% 2% 4% 286 more

Race White 36% 23% 32% 4% 4% 609 Minority 26% 28% 36% 6% 3% 218

Party ID Democrat 33% 26% 35% 4% 2% 242 Republican 36% 21% 36% 4% 4% 217 Independent 28% 27% 33% 7% 4% 346

Q15. How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast in the 2020 election?

Very Somewhat Not too Not at all on t know / Number of confident confident confident confident Refused Cases All Adults 48% 11% 11% 29% 1% 827

VA Region Northwest 40% 2% 18% 34% 7% 115 NOVA 70% 10% 8% 12% 0% 256 West 25% 5% 16% 53% 0% 133 South Central 40% 17% 13% 30% 0% 145 Tidewater 48% 16% 7% 29% 0% 178 Gender Male 45% 14% 12% 27% 2% 435 Female 52% 7% 11% 30% 0% 392

Age 18-34 56% 15% 10% 18% 0% 90 35-44 49% 13% 8% 30% 0% 86 45-64 41% 9% 15% 33% 2% 293 65 and over 50% 6% 10% 34% 1% 358

Education High school 41% 10% 12% 35% 2% 154 grad or less Some college 38% 10% 14% 36% 0% 218 College 62% 11% 9% 17% 0% 455 graduate or more

Family Income Under 43% 8% 13% 34% 3% 194 $50,000 50K to under 43% 7% 12% 37% 1% 219 $100,000 $100,000 or 58% 17% 8% 17% 0% 286 more

Race White 37% 10% 15% 36% 1% 609 Minority 70% 12% 3% 14% 0% 218

Party ID Democrat 93% 5% 0% 2% 0% 242 Republican 10% 13% 22% 53% 1% 217 Independent 43% 13% 13% 31% 0% 346

Q16. How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately counted in the 2020 election?

Very Somewhat Not too Not at all on t know / Number of confident confident confident confident Refused Cases All Adults 48% 11% 11% 29% 1% 827

VA Region Northwest 36% 6% 21% 32% 5% 115 NOVA 72% 7% 7% 14% 0% 256 West 23% 10% 17% 50% 0% 133 South Central 41% 16% 12% 31% 0% 145 Tidewater 46% 16% 6% 32% 0% 178 Gender Male 44% 14% 12% 29% 1% 435 Female 51% 8% 11% 30% 0% 392

Age 18-34 57% 16% 9% 18% 0% 90 35-44 46% 13% 5% 36% 0% 86 45-64 42% 8% 17% 31% 2% 293 65 and over 47% 8% 9% 36% 0% 358

Education High school 38% 13% 12% 34% 2% 154 grad or less Some college 42% 6% 14% 38% 0% 218 College 60% 12% 9% 19% 0% 455 graduate or more

Family Income Under 39% 14% 12% 33% 2% 194 $50,000 50K to under 43% 6% 13% 38% 0% 219 $100,000 $100,000 or 60% 13% 8% 19% 0% 286 more

Race White 35% 12% 15% 37% 1% 609 Minority 72% 9% 4% 15% 0% 218

Party ID Democrat 91% 5% 1% 2% 0% 242 Republican 13% 9% 22% 56% 0% 217 Independent 41% 16% 12% 30% 0% 346