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The 1994Election in Virginia: the Senate Race from Hell Part 2: How the Republicans Blew a Sure Thing

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The 1994Election in Virginia: the Senate Race from Hell Part 2: How the Republicans Blew a Sure Thing Vol. 71, No. 3 Mar ch The 1994Election in Virginia: The Senate Race From Hell Part 2: How the Republicans Blew a Sure Thing .......................... By Larry J. Sabato .......................... The February issue ofthe News Letter discussed overreached by nominating Oliver North. the outcome ofthe 1994electionfor United States In doing so, it proved correct the cutting senator. This month's issue attempts to explain the The voters observation ofa disgruntled delegate to its June results. The author wishes to thank his adminis­ 1994 convention, who remarked when North trative assistant, Nancy Rae, and University of of Virginia sent captured the Senate nod: "Now I know why Virginia graduate student Lawrence Schack for the Republicans they call us the Stupid Party." Meanwhile, the their assistance in the preparation ofthis article. a clear and voters ofVirginia sent the Republicans a clear and valuable message: the state may be basi­ valuable message: cally conservative, but the electorate will not n November 8, 1994, the voters ofVir­ the state may buy conservative elixir from a suspect salesman. ginia elected to return Senator Charles S. Robb be basically The Republican overreach of 1994 con­ to Capitol Hill, dramatically rejecting the na­ conservative, but tinues a modern-day pattern that has afflicted tional trend to turn out the incumbents and both parties. On three occasions since 1969, lead the Republicans to victory. This result was the electorate the voters have ousted the incumbent governor's less a product of affection for the Democrats will not buy party from the seat ofexecutive power, only to than voter revulsion at the Republicans' choice conservative elixir reverse course a year later in a senatorial elec­ for U.S. senator. The Virginia GOP could eas­ tion after the new in-party exhibited arrogance, from a suspect ily have caught the countrywide conservative overconfidence, and/or factionalism. In 1969 wave in an anti-Clinton state, especially in a salesman. heady Republicans elected Linwood Holton, contest with the weakened Robb. But instead, their first governor ofthe century but then split the party indulged itselfideologically and badly badly in the 1970 U.S. Senate contest, easing University of Virginia NEW, LETTER • independent Harry F. Byrd's path to reelection. TABLE 1 • Democrats were similarly jubilant in 1981 when Issues Mattering Most in Virginia, • Chuck Robb ended a dozen years of GOP gover- 1994 General Election for U.S. Senate • nors. But the voters administered a cold shower in 1982 when Robb's anointed Democratic candidate Overall • for u.s. Senate, Owen Pickett, was forced to with- Sample Robb North Coleman • draw after opposition from then-state Senator L. Issue 0/0 0/0 Ok 0/0 • Douglas Wilder; Republican Paul S. Trible won the Crime 32 53 35 12 • Senate seat in November. And in 1994 the GOP Education 23 69 22 8 Family Values/ • had no better luck in extending George Allen's 1993 Morality 27 19 68 13 • triumph after Oliver North's candidacy generated Defense Spending 7 27 66 7 • a multitude of defections, from John Warner and Gun Control 15 52 36 11 Welfare Reform 9 37 50 13 • Marshall Coleman to a host of Reagan and Bush Taxes 18 23 67 10 • Administration officials. An observer could be for- Economy/Jobs 20 64 24 12 • given for wondering ifanyone in the political party Abortion 15 54 41 5 • hierarchies reads or remembers history. SOURCE: Exit polls conducted and adjusted by Mitofsky International, and paid for by news organizations including NBC, ABC, CBS, and CNN. For Virginia, a total of 1,529 voters were interviewed outside their polling places on Election Day at 44 sample precincts. The margin of error is CAMPAIGNISSUES plus or minus 3%. • Robb's greatest advantage with the electorate was his • experience, while North's was his "stand on the was "not an important factor." By contrast, Robb's • issues." Robb won 82% ofthose who named "experi- personal life was the single most important factor • ence" as one of the factors mattering most to their to only 4%, and one ofseveral factors to 36%; fully • Senate vote, and North captured 55% ofvoters who 57% indicated the senator's scandals were not an • were especially issue-oriented. Coleman did well with important factor. • voters concerned about marital character and ethics. Overall, by a 51 % to 400/0 margin, the voters • Only 3% ofthe voters were greatly concerned about judged North to have "morally done the wrong thing" • marital fidelity, and North picked up 590/0 ofthem, in the Iran-contra affair. On the other hand, nearly • to Coleman's 26% and Robb's 15%. half the electorate said Robb agreed with President The top three issues on the voters' minds were Clinton too often, with 40/0 responding "not often • crime, family values and morality, and education. enough" and 41 % deciding the Clinton-Robb agree­ (See Table 1.) Crime is usually a Republican issue, ment was "about right." • but perhaps North's Iran-contra convictions made North's voters were apparently more enthu­ • it Robb's preserve by a wide margin. Ofthose nam- siastic about their choice than were Robb's supporters. • ing crime as one of their key issues, Robb secured By almost 2-to-l, North's voters reported that they • 53% to North's 350/0. Similarly, Robb's widely pub- cast their ballot more for North than against Robb. • licized womanizing and attendance at drug parties The margin was closer for Robb, with 54% ofRobb's • yielded a big edge for Nor h among th 27% of votes cast for him, 41 % against North. Col man's • voters concerned about family values. North cap- votes were primarily a protest against Robb andNorth; • tured 68% of this block to Robb's 19%. Nearly a just a third of Coleman's voters were enthusiastic • quarter of voters cared especially about education, about him. • and Robb won them by 690/0 to 22% for North. Even though nearly 90% of the voters even­ Other issues registered lower on the voters' tually chose either Robb or North, many people saw • radarscopes butwere still sizable. Robb held significant the glaring flaws in both party nominees. About a • leads among Virginians concerned about gun con- quarter ofthe electorate claimed only Robb had the • trol, the economy, and abortion. North led "honesty and integrity you want to see in a sena­ • substantially among those worried about defense tor"; a slightly higher proportion said the same of • spending, taxes, and welfare reform. North, but 42% concluded that neither Robb nor However, the 1994 Senate race was not really North had these essential qualities which Virgin­ • about these traditional issues. Scandal loomed larger, ians once took for granted in their public servants. • and, while the voters were clearly not proud of ei- A solid majority (530/0) also asserted that both can­ • ther candidate, North's problems registered with didates had "attacked the other unfairly." And, in a • voters as the more serious. North's role in Iran-contra final rebuke to ex-leathernecks Robb and North, a • was "the single most important factor" for 120/0 in third-when asked 'who is more of a credit to the • deciding their vote, and "one of several important Marines?'-chose North, 29% picked Robb, and 2 • factors" for another 48%. Only 370/0 said Iran-contra 31 % replied, 'neither.' Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service • March 1995 ~ERTURNOUT aAN& RURAL VOTING Spurred on by the Spurred on by the race's perceived closeness, intense Oliver North had counted on rural Virginia to race's perceived media attention, and massive get-out-the-vote op­ deliver a victory, but instead it was urban Virginia erations by the political parties, Virginia voters turned that produced sufficiently for Chuck Robb. (See closeness, intense out to the polls in record numbers for a Table 3.) Virginia's Metropolitan Statistical Areas media attention, nonpresidential year. (See Table 2.) Fully 41.8% accounted for a record-high proportion ofthe state­ ofall adults (those aged 18 and over) and 69.3% of wide vote (77.5%), and Robb was the plurality and massive the registered voters cast a ballot. For once, Vir­ favorite, 47.1 % to North's 41.2%. As usual for a get-out-the-vote ginia-usually among the lower turnout Democrat, the more liberal central cities, with their states-outpaced the national estimated average of large minority vote, were firmly in Robb's corner, operations by the 38.7% of all adults. 59.2% to 31.20/0 for North. But central cities com­ political parties, prised only 17.9% of the statewide vote total. By TABLE 2 contrast, the suburbs made up 59.6% of the total, Virginia voters Voter Turnout in Virginia, 1976-94 and they narrowly favored North, 44.2% to 43.5% turned out to the for Robb. (Coleman also did marginally better in the suburbs, 12.3% compared to just 9.6% in the polls in record 0/0 of All 0/0 of central cities.) Year Chief Contest Adults Registered numbers for a On the one hand, Robb's suburban perfor­ 1976 President 48.6 80.8 mance was his weakest ever for a general election; nonpresidential 1977 Governor 34.8 61.9 during all ofhis previous career, Robb had been the 1978 Senator 32.7 60.3 year. 1980 President 48.9 81.4 candidate of choice to be invited to the proverbial 1981 Governor 37.3 64.9 suburban cocktail party. In 1994 North was, how­ 1982 Senator 34.7 63.4 ever reluctantly, the plurality invitee, yet his relatively 1984 Governor 51.9 81.5 poor showing in the suburbs compared to most 1985 Governor 32.2 53.0 1988 President 50.0 77.6 Republicans sank his candidacy.
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