IZA DP No. 1808

The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

David A. Jaeger M. Daniele Paserman

DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES DISCUSSION PAPER October 2005

Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Institute for the Study of Labor

The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

David A. Jaeger College of William and Mary and IZA Bonn

M. Daniele Paserman Hebrew University, CEPR and IZA Bonn

Discussion Paper No. 1808 October 2005

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ABSTRACT

The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict*

This paper studies the dynamics of violence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict since the outbreak of the Second (or “Al-Aqsa”) Intifada in September 2000, during which more than 3,300 Palestinians and more than 1,000 Israelis have been killed. The conflict has followed an uneven pattern, with periods of high levels of violence and periods of relative calm. Using data on the number of deaths occurring each day between September 2000 and January 2005, we estimate reaction functions for both Israelis and Palestinians and find evidence of unidirectional Granger causality from Palestinian violence to Israeli violence, but not vice versa. This finding is consistent whether we look only at the incidence of fatalities or whether we look at the level of fatalities, and is robust to the specification of the lag structure and the level of time aggregation. We find little evidence that violence on either side has a direct deterrent or incapacitation effect. We do find, however, that successful assassination attempts do reduce the number of subsequent Israeli fatalities. We conclude that, despite the popular perception that Palestinians and Israelis are engaged in “tit-for-tat” violence, there is no evidence to support that notion.

JEL Classification: C32, D71, D74, H56

Keywords: Intifada, terrorism, Granger causality

Corresponding author:

David A. Jaeger Department of Economics College of William and Mary Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795 USA E-mail: [email protected]

* We thank Tatiana Slobodnitsky, Tamar Roth, Yaron Aronshtam, Eran Ben-Ari, and Lisa Andruyszyn for outstanding research assistance, Suhair Abdi and Yael Handelsman of B’Tselem for discussions about data as well as providing data on suicide bombings, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Netzach Mashiach for providing us the data on the separation barrier, and Noam Zussman for helpful comments and for providing us the data on assassination attempts. We also thank Joshua Angrist, Daniel Hamermesh, Stephen Cecchetti, Esteban Klor and seminar participants at IZA, CERGE-EI, the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, RWI-Essen, the Tinbergen Institute, Hebrew University, the ENS program at the Samuel Neaman Institute, Tel-Aviv University, the NBER Summer Institute, and the University of Wisconsin for comments on preliminary results. David Jaeger acknowledges financial support from the Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung and IZA. Daniele Paserman acknowledges financial support from the Samuel Neaman Institute at the Technion. C8 06; ,92; 1;1,6; N ;8 546;22K6,4 92N49;F 90024E B22 6 ;8

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Table 1 Demographic Distribution of Fatalities for Israelis and Palestinians

Israelis Palestinians N Share N Share All

Total Number of Fatalities 994 3,244

Females 310 .312 157 .048 Age Children (0-17) 109 .110 636 .196 Young Adults (18-23) 303 .305 1,019 .314 Young Adults (24-29) 117 .118 747 .230 Adults (30-59) 356 .358 689 .212 Elderly (60 or older) 102 .103 50 .015 Age unknown 7 .007 103 .032

Civilians Total Number of Fatalities 690 2,949

Females 277 .401 157 .053 Age Children (0-17) 109 .158 635 .215 Young Adults (18-23) 78 .113 925 .314 Young Adults (24-29) 76 .110 642 .218 Adults (30-59) 318 .461 619 .210 Elderly (60 or older) 102 .148 47 .016 Age unknown 7 .010 81 .027

Note: The Israeli count includes all civilians and members of the security forces killed during this period, either in Israel (within the 1948 borders) or in the Territories, as well as foreign civilians killed by Palestinians. The Palestinian count includes all civilians and members of the security forces, as well as foreign civilians killed by Israeli security forces and civilians. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005. Table 2 Number and Daily Rate of Fatalities, Israelis and Palestinians, by Period

Barak Sharon Gov't 9/12/2001- ODS- Roadmap- Post- Government pre-9/11/2001 ODS Roadmap Ceasefire Ceasefire Ceasefire TOTAL 29.9.2000- 7.02.2001- 12.09.2001- 29.03.2002- 25.06.2002 29.06.2003- 22.08.2003- 29.09.2000- 6.2.2001 11.09.2001 28.03.2002 24.06.2002 28.06.2003 21.08.2003 15.01.2005 15.01.2005 (131 days) (217 days) (198 days) (88 days) (369 days) (51 days) (516 days) (1570 days) Israelis Fatalities 51 116 218 160 241 7 201 994 Fatalities/Day .389 .535 1.101 1.818 .653 .137 .390 .633 Daily Incidence of Fatalities .237 .212 .318 .341 .187 .098 .107 .190 Share by Gunfire .764 .379 .423 .275 .432 .286 .289 .407 Share by Suicide Attacks .000 .422 .440 .613 .461 .571 .587 .479 Palestinians Fatalities 308 206 568 374 730 10 1,048 3,244 Fatalities/Day 2.351 .949 2.869 4.250 1.978 .196 2.031 2.066 Daily Incidence of Fatalities .664 .479 .672 .830 .650 .137 .609 .610 Share by Gunfire .929 .680 .754 .850 .699 .600 .676 .739 Share by Helicopter, Aircraft or Tank Shelling .052 .277 .151 .099 .221 .200 .306 .210 Targeted Killings .046 .151 .049 .048 .129 .000 .100 .089

Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005. Table 3 Daily Israeli Reaction Function, Incidence and Number of Fatalities

Incidence of Palestinian Fatalities Number of Palestinian Fatalities Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Israeli Fatalities t-1 .076 .030 .071 .030 0.134 0.067 0.128 0.066 t-2 -.008 .031 -.001 .031 0.063 0.050 0.066 0.051 t-3 .040 .030 .044 .030 0.080 0.044 0.096 0.046 t-4 .055 .030 .060 .030 0.042 0.071 0.051 0.069 t-5 .068 .030 .078 .030 0.213 0.129 0.223 0.128 t-6 -.024 .031 -.010 .031 0.038 0.043 0.050 0.045 t-7 .012 .031 .014 .031 0.048 0.045 0.054 0.046 t-8 .044 .031 .047 .031 0.134 0.137 0.138 0.134 t-9 .056 .030 .072 .030 -0.034 0.049 -0.023 0.047 t-10 .041 .030 .054 .030 0.029 0.036 0.049 0.037 t-11 .017 .031 .031 .031 -0.086 0.043 -0.070 0.043 t-12 -.023 .031 -.004 .031 -0.011 0.042 0.002 0.042 t-13 -.012 .031 .008 .031 0.013 0.038 0.024 0.037 t-14 -.006 .031 .006 .031 -0.000 0.035 0.008 0.035 Palestinian Fatalities t-1 .050 .026 .026 .026 0.178 0.051 0.164 0.049 t-2 .065 .026 .045 .026 0.105 0.032 0.100 0.031 t-3 -.017 .026 -.041 .026 0.146 0.111 0.140 0.110 t-4 .062 .026 .039 .026 0.024 0.049 0.020 0.048 t-5 .064 .026 .045 .026 0.047 0.035 0.043 0.034 t-6 .046 .026 .026 .027 0.006 0.036 -0.005 0.036 t-7 .001 .026 -.022 .026 0.025 0.035 0.009 0.036 t-8 .009 .026 -.007 .026 -0.017 0.033 -0.024 0.033 t-9 .047 .026 .034 .026 -0.051 0.030 -0.050 0.030 t-10 .040 .026 .022 .026 -0.017 0.027 -0.019 0.026 t-11 .015 .026 -.004 .026 0.037 0.023 0.035 0.023 t-12 .052 .026 .038 .026 0.013 0.030 0.011 0.030 t-13 .012 .026 -.006 .026 -0.016 0.024 -0.027 0.024 t-14 0.33973.002 0.03353.026 -.020 .026 0.021 0.026 0.001 0.026 Periods Barak-Sharon ref. ref. Sharon-9/11 -.151 .055 -0.964 0.288 9/12-ODS -.034 .052 -0.162 0.355 ODS-Roadmap .066 .059 -0.156 0.570 Roadmap-Ceasefire -.001 .048 -0.586 0.298 Ceasefire -.437 .104 -2.406 0.569 Post-Ceasefire -.063 .149 -2.741 0.941 Length of Separation Barrier (10 km) .042 .082 1.500 0.544 Constant .274 .038 .397 .070 0.617 0.193 0.587 0.361

!2 for joint sig. of Israeli fatalities (p-value) 39.30 43.50 23.93 24.30 (<.001) (<.001) (.047) (.042) R2 .075 .102 .217 .233

Note: Dependent variable is an indicator for any Palestinian fatalities in columns 1 and 2 and number of Palestinian fatalities in columns 3 and 4. The right hand side variables are indicators for whether there were any Palestinian/Israeli fatalities in days t-1 to t-14 (columns 1 and 2), and counts of Palestinian/Israeli fatalities in columns 3 and 4. Columns 2 and 4 also include day-of-week indicator variables. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005. Table 4 Daily Palestinian Reaction Function, Incidence and Number of Fatalities

Incidence of Israeli Fatalities Number of Israeli Fatalities Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Palestinian Fatalities t-1 -.011 .020 -.009 .020 0.023 0.019 0.026 0.020 t-2 .020 .020 .022 .020 0.023 0.024 0.027 0.024 t-3 .007 .021 .006 .021 -0.003 0.016 0.000 0.016 t-4 -.022 .021 -.023 .021 -0.016 0.018 -0.009 0.017 t-5 .030 .021 .031 .021 0.014 0.030 0.014 0.029 t-6 -.022 .021 -.027 .021 -0.008 0.020 -0.011 0.021 t-7 -.016 .021 -.020 .021 -0.029 0.016 -0.029 0.016 t-8 .010 .021 .012 .021 0.062 0.024 0.064 0.023 t-9 -.010 .021 -.009 .021 0.003 0.022 0.005 0.022 t-10 .007 .020 .004 .021 0.006 0.021 0.009 0.021 t-11 .012 .021 .008 .021 0.008 0.018 0.012 0.018 t-12 -.014 .021 -.014 .021 -0.024 0.013 -0.026 0.013 t-13 .013 .020 .006 .020 -0.014 0.018 -0.020 0.018 t-14 .023 .020 .016 .021 0.030 0.024 0.027 0.024 Israeli Fatalities t-1 .068 .027 .055 .027 0.086 0.034 0.072 0.033 t-2 .058 .027 .046 .027 0.004 0.020 -0.012 0.021 t-3 .025 .027 .014 .026 0.024 0.021 0.008 0.021 t-4 .021 .026 .009 .026 0.042 0.045 0.026 0.044 t-5 .058 .028 .047 .028 0.003 0.016 -0.013 0.017 t-6 .038 .027 .026 .028 -0.005 0.025 -0.021 0.027 t-7 .051 .027 .030 .028 0.011 0.028 -0.013 0.029 t-8 .024 .026 .015 .026 -0.010 0.017 -0.024 0.016 t-9 -.005 .026 -.015 .026 0.011 0.023 -0.006 0.023 t-10 .068 .028 .058 .028 0.023 0.026 0.010 0.025 t-11 .027 .026 .019 .026 0.013 0.023 -0.001 0.023 t-12 .029 .026 .022 .027 0.009 0.015 -0.007 0.016 t-13 .009 .026 -.000 .026 0.059 0.047 0.046 0.044 t-14 .046 .027 .025 .027 0.025 0.027 0.002 0.028 Periods Barak-Sharon ref. ref. Sharon-9/11 -.021 .048 0.256 0.173 9/12-ODS .053 .049 0.617 0.211 ODS-Roadmap .053 .064 1.168 0.437 Roadmap-Ceasefire -.042 .043 0.333 0.170 Ceasefire -.155 .088 0.619 0.518 Post-Ceasefire -.187 .112 1.390 1.054 Length of Separation Barrier (10 km) .058 .062 -0.803 0.583 Constant .076 .032 .092 .059 0.293 0.091 -0.082 0.162

!2 for joint sig. of Palestinian fatalities (p-value) 7.89 7.80 15.73 17.50 (.895) (.899) (.330) (.230) R2 .051 .074 .041 .064

Note: Dependent variable is an indicator for any Israeli fatalities in columns 1 and 2 and number of Israli fatalities in columns 3 and 4. The right hand side variables are indicators for whether there were any Palestinian/Israeli fatalities in days t-1 to t-14 (columns 1 and 2), and counts of Palestinian/Israeli fatalities in columns 3 and 4. Columns 2 and 4 also include day-of-week indicator variables. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005. Table 5 Granger Causality Tests for Different Lag Structures (!2 statistics, p-values in parentheses)

Lag Structure Israeli Reaction Function Palestinian Reaction Function (own, opposite) Incidence Levels Incidence Levels

(4,4) 19.69 9.95 2.77 3.04 (.001) (.041) (.598) (.552) (7,4) 29.34 15.32 7.62 3.67 (<.001) (.032) (.367) (.817) (14,4) 53.15 23.22 9.77 17.54 (<.001) (.057) (.779) (.229) (21,4) 73.58 27.92 16.58 20.40 (<.001) (.142) (.680) (.496) (7,7) 27.21 15.32 6.54 4.91 (<.001) (.032) (.478) (.670) (14,7) 47.21 23.62 8.54 18.29 (<.001) (.051) (.859) (.194) (21,7) 66.07 27.57 15.68 21.01 (<.001) (.153) (.736) (.459) (14,14) 43.50 24.30 7.80 17.50 (<.001) (.042) (.899) (.230) (21,14) 58.72 27.69 14.43 20.98 (<.001) (.149) (.808) (.460) (21,21) 57.38 26.16 14.48 20.56 (<.001) (.200) (.805) (.486)

Note: The entries in the table are the test statistics and p-values for the joint hypothesis that all lags of own fatalities are equal to zero. All models include period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of separation barrier as regressors. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005. Table 6 Effect of Time Aggregation on Granger Causality Tests: Levels (!2 statistics, p-values in parentheses)

Israeli Palestinian Frequency of Data Reaction Func. Reaction Func. Weekly 2 Lags 4.58 2.48 (.101) (.289) 4 Lags 9.19 2.74 (.056) (.602) Bi-Weekly 1 Lag 0.04 1.42 (.838) (.492) 2 Lags 1.96 3.10 (.162) (.212) Monthly 1 Lag 3.83 1.04 (.050) (.309)

Note: The entries in the table are the test statistics and p-values for the joint hypothesis that all lags of own fatalities are equal to zero. All models include period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of separation barrier as regressors. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005. Table 7 Smoothed Reaction Functions

In days prior to day t: Number of days with own fatalities (incidence) or Incidence Levels Number of own fatalities (levels) Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Israeli Reaction Function (Palestinian Fatalities) t-1 to t-7 .038 .010 0.113 0.033 t-8 to t-14 .031 .011 0.009 0.017

!2 for sig. of own fatalities (p-value) 29.96 11.43 (<.001) (.003) R2 .085 .190 Palestinian Reaction Function (Israeli Fatalities) t-1 to t-7 -.003 .007 0.004 0.005 t-8 to t-14 .003 .007 0.006 0.005

!2 for sig. of own fatalities (p-value) 0.25 2.56 (.881) (.278) R2 .064 .041

Note: Dependent variables are daily incidence of fatalities on opposite side or daily number of fatalities on opposite side. All models estimated with ordinary least squares and include lagged own smoothed lags, period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of the separation barrier as regressors. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005. Table 8 Smoothed Reaction Functions: Before, During, and After Operation Defensive Shield

Israeli Reaction Function Palestinian Reaction Function In days prior to day t: (Palestinian Fatalities) (Israeli Fatalities) Number of days with own fatalities (incidence) or Incidence Levels Incidence Levels Number of own fatalities (levels) Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E.

Before Operation Defensive Shield t-1 to t-7 .042 .014 0.082 0.036 -.009 .014 0.000 0.011 t-8 to t-14 .032 .017 0.035 0.026 .004 .012 0.017 0.009 During Operation Defensive Shield t-1 to t-7 .026 .020 0.274 0.115 -.024 .042 -0.014 0.016 t-8 to t-14 .039 .028 0.115 0.081 -.001 .041 -0.010 0.012 After Operation Defensive Shield t-1 to t-7 .031 .017 0.050 0.020 .002 .008 -0.004 0.004 t-8 to t-14 .025 .017 -0.013 0.013 .001 .008 0.001 0.005

!2 for sig. of own fatalities: Pre-ODS (p-value) 16.02 (<.001) 7.52 (.023) 0.53 (.769) 4.46 (.108) !2 for sig. of own fatalities: ODS (p-value) 9.41 (.009) 5.97 (.051) 0.37 (.829) 0.98 (.612) !2 for sig. of own fatalities: Post-ODS (p-value) 5.53 (.063) 7.38 (.025) 0.07 (.964) 1.00 (.606)

!2 for test of equality of coefficients in all periods 0.67 (.955) 6.91 (.141) 0.87 (.929) 4.92 (.295) R2 .644 .401 .249 .125

Note: Dependent variables are daily incidence of fatalities on opposite side or daily number of fatalities on opposite side. All models estimated with ordinary least squares and include lagged own smoothed lags, period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of the separation barrier as regressors. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005. Table 9 Smoothed Israeli Reaction Functions: Reaction to Successful and Unsuccessful Suicide Attempts

Palestinian Fatalities Incidence Levels Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E.

Number of days with successful suicide attempts: t-1 to t-7 .001 .022 0.608 0.263 t-8 to t-14 .049 .021 0.299 0.210 Number of days with failed suicide attempts: t-1 to t-7 -.007 .027 0.137 0.162 t-8 to t-14 .024 .026 0.511 0.269 Number of days with other Israeli fatalities: t-1 to t-7 .045 .011 0.526 0.112 t-8 to t-14 .017 .012 -0.018 0.097

!2 for sig. of successful attempts (p-value) 5.37 (.068) 5.54 (.063) !2 for sig. of failed attempts (p-value) 0.89 (.640) 3.84 (.147) !2 for sig. of other fatalities (p-value) 22.38 (<.001) 22.46 (<.001) R2 .088 .198

Note: Dependent variable is daily incidence or the daily number of Palestinian fatalities. All models estimated with ordinary least squares and include "smoothed" lags of Palestinian fatalities, period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of the separation barrier as regressors. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005. Table 10 Smoothed Palestinian Reaction Functions: Reaction to Successful and Unsuccessful Assassination Attempts

Israeli Fatalities Incidence Levels Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E.

Number of days with successful assassination attempts: t-1 to t-7 -.022 .013 -0.218 .069 t-8 to t-14 .003 .014 0.099 .093 Number of days with failed assassination attempts: t-1 to t-7 .090 .036 0.120 .205 t-8 to t-14 -.022 .029 -0.263 .157 Number of days with other Palestinian fatalities: t-1 to t-7 -.002 .008 -0.022 .042 t-8 to t-14 -.001 .008 0.093 .052

!2 for sig. of successful attempts (p-value) 3.06 (.217) 10.09 (.006) !2 for sig. of failed attempts (p-value) 7.14 (.028) 4.66 (.097) !2 for sig. of other fatalities (p-value) 0.08 (.959) 3.48 (.176) R2 .073 .048

Note: Dependent variable is daily incidence or the daily number of Israeli fatalities. All models are estimated with ordinary least squares and include "smoothed" lags of Israeli fatalities, period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of the separation barrier as regressors. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem and Zussman and Zussman (2005) from 29 September 2000 to 30 April 2004. Table 11 Smoothed Palestinian Reaction Functions: Suicide Attacks and Other Actions as Reaction to Successful and Unsuccessful Assassination Attempts

Israeli Fatalities From Suicide Attacks From All Other Actions Incidence Levels Incidence Levels Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E.

Number of days with successful assassination attempts t-1 to t-7 -.020 .006 -0.188 0.063 -.006 .012 -0.031 0.029 t-8 to t-14 .014 .007 0.126 0.085 -.009 .013 -0.027 0.037 Number of days with failed assassination attempts t-1 to t-7 -.022 .013 0.015 0.181 .117 .036 0.105 0.092 t-8 to t-14 -.001 .016 -0.095 0.146 -.038 .026 -0.167 0.064 Number of days with other Palestinian fatalities t-1 to t-7 -.002 .004 -0.025 0.037 .001 .007 0.002 0.020 t-8 to t-14 -.002 .004 0.071 0.048 .000 .007 0.022 0.020

!2 for sig. of successful attempts (p-value) 11.61 (.003) 8.91 (.012) 0.70 (.706) 1.44 (.486) !2 for sig. of failed attempts (p-value) 2.84 (.241) 0.62 (.733) 13.75 (.001) 9.15 (.010) !2 for sig. of other fatalities (p-value) 0.67 (.714) 2.53 (.282) 0.02 (.988) 1.17 (.557) R2 .042 .029 .082 .060

Note: Dependent variable is daily incidence or daily number of Israeli fatalities by suicide bombings or all other actions. All models estimated with ordinary least squares and include "smoothed" lags of Israeli fatalities, period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of the separation barrier as regressors. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem and Zussman and Zussman (2005) from 29 September 2000 to 30 April 2004. Table 12 The Effect of Border Closings, Checkpoints and Restrictions to Movement on the Palestinian Reaction Function

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Dependent Variable: Fraction Incidence: Incidence: Levels: Num. Levels: Num. checkpoints closed Any Israeli Any Israeli of Israeli of Israeli fatalities fatalities fatalities fatalities Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Number of days with Palestinian fatalities in days: t-1 to t-7 .012 .011 .010 .011 t-8 to t-14 .015 .012 .014 .012 Number of days with Israeli fatalities in days: t-1 to t-7 .008 .018 .005 .018 t-8 to t-14 -.043 .021 -.047 .021 Number of Palestinian fatalities in days: t-1 to t-7 .00045 .00015 0.001 0.004 -0.001 0.004 t-8 to t-14 .00088 .00018 -0.002 0.003 -0.005 0.003 Number of Israeli fatalities in days: t-1 to t-7 .00385 .00068 -0.032 0.015 -0.043 0.017 t-8 to t-14 .00417 .00070 -0.030 0.011 -0.042 0.013 Fraction checkpoints closed .374 .281 2.946 1.097 !2 for joint sig. of Palestinian fatalities (p-value) 39.07 (<.001) 2.78 (.249) 2.25 (.325) 0.68 (.713) 3.08 (.214) !2 for joint sig. of Israeli fatalities (p-value) 57.65 (<.001) 5.16 (.076) 5.71 (.057) 7.00 (.030) 10.72 (.005) R2 .251 .025 .029 .021 .029

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