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Second Intifada” and Asymmetric Warfare CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 [email protected] Israel versus the Palestinians: The “Second Intifada” and Asymmetric Warfare Working Draft Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Center for Strategic and International Studies July, 2002 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No quotation, reference, or further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission in each single case. Peace and War: The Israeli-Palestinian Balance 8/21/2002 Page ii Introduction This report is a draft that expands upon the content of a chapter prepared for a book on the Arab-Israeli Balance to be published by Praeger in 2001. The reader should be aware that this text is being circulated for comment and will be extensively revised over time, and reflects the working views of the author and not the CSIS. Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission. Quotation or reference is permitted with proper attribution. Peace and War: The Israeli-Palestinian Balance 8/21/2002 Page iii Acknowledgements The Author would like to thank Haylee Cohen for her help in researching and editing this book. Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission. Quotation or reference is permitted with proper attribution. Peace and War: The Israeli-Palestinian Balance 8/21/2002 Page iv Table of Contents ISRAEL VERSUS THE PALESTINIANS: THE “SECOND INTIFADA”......................................................... I AND ASYMMETRIC WARFARE.......................................................................................................................... I WORKING DRAFT.................................................................................................................................................... I THIS REPORT IS A DRAFT THAT EXPANDS UPON THE CONTENT OF A CHAPTER PREPARED FOR A BOOK ON THE ARAB-ISRAELI BALANCE TO BE PUBLISHED BY PRAEGER IN 2001. THE READER SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THIS TEXT IS BEING CIRCULATED FOR COMMENT AND WILL BE EXTENSIVELY REVISED OVER TIME, AND REFLECTS THE WORKING VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR AND NOT THE CSIS............................................................................................................................II PEACE WITH VIOLENCE VERSUS A SECOND INTIFADA: THE NATURE OF ASYMMETRIC WARFARE......................42 Facade versus Asymmetric Values: Peace is Made Between Enemies............................................................43 Asymmetric Values and Asymmetric Warfare: The Problem of Leigitmacy....................................................45 The Legacy of Asymmetric Warfare: Peace with Violence ................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. The Legacy of Asymmetric Warfare: The Israeli Edge in the Use of Force Majure ........ Error! Bookmark not defined. The Legacy of Asymmetric Warfare: The Palestinian “Edge” in the Battle for World Opinion.....................86 THE “MILITARY BALANCE”: THE PALESTINIAN ACTORS THAT CHALLENGE THE IDF........................................93 Palestinian Paramilitary Groups....................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. The Role of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad .....................................................................................................110 Hamas ..........................................................................................................................................................................113 Islamic Jihad ................................................................................................................................................................124 Outside Actors: Palestinians in Lebanon, the Hizbollah, and Iran...............................................................................129 Palestinian Hard-Line Movements in Syria and Jordan...............................................................................................135 THE HISTORY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY SECURITY FORCES .................................93 The Palestinian Authority versus Hamas and the PIJ .....................................................................................95 The Effectiveness of the Palestinian Authority Security Forces.......................................................................96 The Organization of the Palestinian Security Forces in Gaza and the West Bank..........................................99 ISRAELI HARD-LINE MOVEMENTS AND EXTREMISTS ........................................................................................143 CONFLICT IN GAZA............................................................................................................................................162 Fighting in an Economic and Demographic Time Bomb ..............................................................................162 At the same time, Israel had begun to use more sophisticated security procedures to minimize some of the problems and delays before the fighting began in September. More advanced technology is also available Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission. Quotation or reference is permitted with proper attribution. Peace and War: The Israeli-Palestinian Balance 8/21/2002 Page v which can handle greatly increased volumes of traffic with equal or greater speed and equal or greater security. These tools include UAVs, unattended ............................................................................................166 ground sensors, ground-based radars, and night vision and surveillance equipment. No set of procedures can perfectly secure the Gaza in the sense of preventing all arms smuggling and infiltration, but there are a wide range of technical measures that can improve security without extensive physical searches and delays.....166 The Forms the Fighting Might Take in the Gaza Strip ..................................................................................166 CONFLICT ON THE WEST BANK .........................................................................................................................176 The West Bank Version of the Economic and Demographic Time Bomb ......................................................177 Major Security Issues on the West Bank........................................................................................................180 The Problem of Palestinian Sovereignty and the Final Settlement Issues......................................................................46 The Problem of Demographics and the Right of Return................................................................................................48 The Problem of Economics............................................................................................................................................51 The Problem of Jerusalem..............................................................................................................................................54 The Problem of West Bank Security..............................................................................................................................57 The Problem of Water....................................................................................................................................................60 The Impact of the Security Arrangements on the West Bank ............................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Israeli-Palestinian Accords and Negotiations ................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. The Sharm el-Sheikh Memorandum of September 4, 1999 .............................................................................................6 The Camp David Meetings in July 2000..........................................................................................................................8 The Second Intifada and the Taba Talks..........................................................................................................................9 The Election of Ariel Sharon ......................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. The Mitchell Commission.............................................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. The June 13, 2000 Ceasefire........................................................................................................................................199 Escalation on the West Bank.............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Israeli Tactics in a West Bank Conflict........................................................................................................................183 The Palestinian Response ............................................................................................................................................186 Roadside Attacks and Retaliation ................................................................................................................................189 Attacks on Settlements and the IDF Response.............................................................................................................190
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