CORPORATES

CREDIT OPINION PAO Novatek 14 February 2020 Update to credit analysis

Update Summary PAO Novatek's (Novatek) Baa2 issuer rating reflects the company's (1) vast conventional low- cost gas and oil reserves; (2) integrated business model with a high share of processed value- added products; (3) track record of strong production growth in both gas and liquids (gas condensate and oil); (4) strong domestic market position in gas; (5) robust credit metrics and RATINGS conservative financial policy; (6) elevated capital spending, although the resulting negative PAO Novatek post-dividend free cash flow (FCF) in 2020 will be balanced by cash inflow from the sale of a Domicile Russia 40% stake in Arctic LNG 2; and (7) track record of completion and solid pipeline of new LNG Long Term Rating Baa2 projects. Type LT Issuer Rating - Fgn Curr Novatek’s issuer rating is constrained by Russia’s (Baa2 stable) Baa2 country ceiling for Outlook Stable foreign-currency debt. The company remains exposed to Russia's macroeconomic, regulatory Please see the ratings section at the end of this report and operating environment, despite its high volume of exports, because most of its for more information. The ratings and outlook shown production facilities are in Russia. reflect information as of the publication date.

Exhibit 1 Novatek's cash flow and interest coverage metrics will weaken in 2020 on lower gas and oil Contacts prices RCF / debt (RHS) EBITDA / interest expense (LHS) Artem Frolov +7.495.228.6110 120% 45x VP-Sr Credit Officer 40x 100% [email protected] 35x 80% 30x Victoria Maisuradze +7.495.228.6067 25x 60% Associate Managing Director 20x [email protected] 40% 15x 10x 20% 5x CLIENT SERVICES 0% Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 LTM 2019E 2020F Americas 1-212-553-1653 (Sep-19) Sources: Moody’s Financial Metrics™ and Moody's Investors Service forecasts Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

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Credit strengths » Substantial reserves at legacy fields and joint ventures (JVs)

» Integrated business model with a high share of processed value-added products

» Commissioning of the first three trains of Yamal LNG in 2017-18, which will drive production growth

» Low production costs, strong financial metrics and conservative financial policy

Credit challenges » Elevated capital spending

» Exposure to Russia's macroeconomic, regulatory and operating environment

Rating outlook The stable outlook on Novatek's rating is in line with the stable outlook on the sovereign rating and reflects the company’s strong positioning within the current rating category. Factors that could lead to an upgrade We could upgrade Novatek’s rating if we were to upgrade Russia's sovereign rating and raise the foreign-currency bond country ceiling, provided there is no material deterioration in the company’s specific credit factors, including its operating performance, market position, financial metrics, FCF generation and liquidity. Factors that could lead to a downgrade We could downgrade Novatek’s rating if (1) we were to downgrade Russia's sovereign rating or lower its foreign-currency bond country ceiling; or (2) the company’s operating performance, market position, financial metrics, FCF generation or liquidity were to deteriorate materially. Key indicators

Exhibit 2 PAO Novatek LTM Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 (Sep-19) 2019-est. 2020-proj. Average Daily Production (MBOE / Day) 1,140.6 1,305.5 1,374.8 1,406.3 1,380.4 1,611.0 1,550-1,600 1,570-1,630 Total Proved Developed Reserves (MBOE) 4,674.5 4,670.8 4,415.3 4,916.8 5,108.7 5,108.7 5,100-5,400 5,100-5,400 Leveraged Full-Cycle Ratio 3.3x 2.4x 3.5x 7.9x 9.6x 8.6x 7.0x-9.0x 7.0x-9.0x E&P Debt / Average Daily Production $3,644 $3,785 $2,632 $2,237 $1,944 $1,690 $1,700-$1,800 $1,600-$1,700 RCF / Debt 36.3% 28.3% 51.8% 77.3% 84.3% 99.2% 95.8% 70.3% EBITDA / Interest Expense 12.3x 9.4x 18.0x 22.4x 25.2x 38.2x 37.3x 36.3x E&P Debt / Proved Developed Reserves $0.9 $1.1 $0.8 $0.6 $0.5 $0.5 $0.5-$0.6 $0.5-$0.6

All figures and ratios are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments. Moody's forecasts (f) or projections (proj.) are Moody's opinion and do not represent the views of the issuer. Periods are financial year-end unless indicated. LTM = Last 12 months. Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Profile PAO Novatek (Novatek) is the largest independent natural gas producers in Russia. For the 12 months ended 30 September 2019, Novatek generated Moody's-adjusted EBITDA of RUB378 billion. In the first nine months of 2019, Novatek produced 55.9 billion cubic metres of gas and 9.1 million tonnes (mt) of liquid hydrocarbons.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

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Novatek's key shareholders are Leonid Mikhelson (with a slightly below 25% stake), who is also the chairman of the management board; Gennady Timchenko, with an around 23% stake; Total S.A. (Aa3 stable), with a 19.4% stake; and Gazprom, PJSC (Gazprom, Baa2 stable) with a 10% stake. Novatek's free float is around 23%.

Exhibit 3 Exhibit 4 Revenue breakdown by product (for the first nine months of 2019) Revenue breakdown by geography of sales (for the first nine months of 2019)

Liquefied petroleum gas Middle East Other gas and gas North America 5% 1% condensate refined 5% products 10% Asia-Pacific region 13% Natural gas Crude oil 49% Russia 14% 45%

Stable gas condensate and naphtha Europe 22% 36%

Sources: Novatek and Moody's Investors Service estimates Sources: Novatek and Moody's Investors Service estimates

Detailed credit considerations Launch of Yamal LNG helped offset production decline at mature fields at subsidiaries and JVs Novatek holds licences for exploration and production of hydrocarbons at the fields located mainly in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District. As of 31 December 2019, the company had total proved reserves (including its share in JVs) of around 16.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), including 2.234 trillion cubic metres of gas, under the Securities and Exchange Commission classification, which implies a proved reserve life of 28 years. Novatek maintains a robust reserve replacement, with an organic reserve replacement ratio (excluding disposals) of 252% in 2019 (2018: 121%). We expect Novatek to grow its reserve base further as the company continues to acquire new licences and carry out extensive exploration works at the Gydan peninsula and the Gulf of Ob.

The company carries out commercial production of natural gas, gas condensate and crude oil at 18 fields, including its core Yurkharovskoye, East-Tarkosalinskoye and Yarudeyskoye fields, which together accounted for 45% of the company's total gas production and 49% of liquids production (including its proportionate share in JVs) in the first nine months of 2019. Natural gas production at these fields in the first nine months of 2019 fell by 6.6% from the year-earlier period, while liquids production fell by 1.8% over the same period because of falling reservoir pressure in current producing horizons.

A significant share of Novatek’s production is attributed to its JVs: Arcticgas and Nortgas, developed jointly with Gazprom Neft PJSC (Baa2 stable), with Novatek holding 50% in each of them, and Terneftegas, a JV with Total S.A., with Novatek’s share amounting to 51%. Overall, JVs, including the growing production at Yamal LNG, contributed 47% to Novatek’s gas production and 47% to its liquids production in the first nine months of 2019.

Despite a decline in natural gas production at these JVs (excluding Yamal LNG) by 1.3% in the first nine months of 2019 from the year-earlier period, the company managed to grow its natural gas production by 11.1% over the same period. This was because of the commencement of natural gas and gas condensate production at Yamal LNG, resulting from the start of LNG production at the first three trains of the LNG liquefaction plant in 2017-18. In H1 2020, Novatek intends to commission the fourth train of Yamal LNG.

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Exhibit 5 Novatek's production will likely continue to grow Gas production (left axis) Liquid hydrocarbons production (right axis) 90 16 80 14 70 12 60 10 50 8 40 6 30 Million tonnes Million 4 Billion cubic metrescubic Billion 20 10 2 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F

Sources: Novatek and Moody's Investors Service estimates

Reserves are well monetised because of an integrated business model Novatek processes unstable gas condensate at its Purovsky Gas Condensate Processing Plant, located near to its fields, where the company processes it into stable gas condensate and liquefied petroleum gas. Stable gas condensate is further processed at the company's Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex, located at the port of Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, into higher- value refined oil products, such as naphtha, jet fuel, gas oil and fuel oil. Both the Purovsky plant and Ust-Luga complex are producing close to their nameplate capacities of 11 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) and 6 mmtpa, respectively, with throughputs of 8.0 mmtpa and 5.1 mmtpa in the first nine months of 2019.

This integrated business model, with a growing share of liquids that are further processed into refined products at the Ust-Luga complex, allows the company to shift to higher-margin liquids sales (oil products, crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas and stable gas condensate), which do not fluctuate seasonally and are largely sold in export markets. As a result, the company has somewhat diversified away from gas — of its total gas production, 82% is sold in the domestic market in Russian roubles at regulated prices and exhibits seasonal volatility. The company sells almost all of its oil products, more than half of stable gas condensate and more than one-third of crude oil in export markets. Growing export sales of higher-margin liquids provide the company with an increasing share of foreign-currency revenue, which contributes to fairly strong operating cash flow in rouble terms even when oil prices fall, because of the weak rouble.

Novatek is not allowed to sell its natural gas in export markets, because according to the Russian law on gas exports, Gazprom has the exclusive right to export gas via its gas pipelines. Although Novatek can sell gas in the domestic market at any price, in practice it cannot deviate substantially from the regulated prices at which gas is sold by Gazprom (mostly in the range of $60-$70/thousand cubic metres, depending on the region of sales, or around $1.7-$2.0/million British thermal units [mmbtu]), which serve as the benchmark prices. Novatek’s gas monetisation rests on large medium- and long-term contracts with industrial end-customers (such as steel-makers) and power generation companies.

Prices at which Novatek exports its liquids are market-based and are subject to fluctuations in the underlying benchmark prices of crude oil, naphtha and other gas condensate refined products, which are substantially higher on a per-boe basis than domestic gas prices.

Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 projects will drive future growth Novatek’s flagship Yamal LNG project, which embraces the construction of a 17.4-mmtpa four-train liquefaction plant and the development of the South-Tambeyskoye field in the Yamal peninsula, will be the backbone of its medium-term growth. The first three trains with a nameplate capacity of 16.5 mmtpa of LNG, which were commissioned in 2017-18, produced more than 18 mt in 2019. The fourth train, with a nameplate capacity of 0.9 mmtpa, is to be commissioned in H1 2020. More than 95% of the plant's nameplate capacity volumes are contracted under long-term contracts.

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The company estimates the project’s total cost at around $27 billion. Novatek owns a 50.1% share in the project, while other shareholders are Total S.A. (20%), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC, A1 stable) with 20%, and Silk Road Fund Co. Ltd. (9.9%). Yamal LNG is one of the lowest-cost liquefaction facilities worldwide because of the availability of sizeable conventional gas reserves near the plant and low temperatures in the Yamal peninsula (permafrost zone), which facilitate the liquefaction process. Novatek estimates that total cash cost at Yamal LNG, considering feedstock, liquefaction and shipping, is $3 per mmbtu, including $2.5 per mmbtu of transportation costs to the Southeast Asian markets (via the Suez Canal). We estimate each train to contribute RUB30 billion-RUB35 billion to Novatek’s EBITDA annually.

The company's strategy to reduce transportation costs will be executed via the construction of the transshipment terminal at the Kamchatka peninsula, which will be launched in 2022-23 and will provide for $0.8/mmbtu LNG transportation cost savings compared with the current western (winter) route via Europe and the Suez Canal. The key LNG consumers, Japan and Korea, are only three days of shipping away from Kamchatka and the demand for LNG spot volumes can be satisfied at a fairly short notice. Novatek also plans to build a transshipment facility in Murmansk, which will be completed by 2022-23.

The company’s next major LNG project is a 19.8-mmtpa Arctic LNG 2 plant, which envisages the construction of three 6.6-mmtpa trains at a total cost of more than $21 billion. The underlying resource base is the prolific Utrenneye field. The company plans to build an LNG construction center in Murmansk, which will produce gravity-based structures for Arctic LNG 2. These structures will host LNG and accompanying facilities, and will be anchored close to the shoreline, positioned on the river's soil. The gravity-based structures should reduce the liquefaction plant construction costs by 30% compared with Yamal LNG. Novatek owns a 60% share in the Arctic LNG 2 project, while other shareholders are Total S.A. (10%), CNODC (10%, subsidiary of CNPC), CNOOC Limited (10%) and Japan Arctic LNG B.V. (10%, a JV of Mitsui & Co. Ltd. and JOGMEC). Farming out 40% of the project’s equity stake reduced capital spending requirements for Novatek, supporting its credit metrics.

Novatek is subject to the US financial sanctions prohibiting the provision of debt with a maturity of longer than 60 days to the company. The company is not subject to the US technological sanctions, which restrict exports in technology and equipment, and the provision of services (such as drilling, well testing and logging) for deep-water (more than 500 feet) and Arctic offshore oil exploration or production and shale oil projects.

Leverage will remain low, while increasing capital spending will be balanced by cash inflow from the sale of a 40% stake in Arctic LNG 2 Novatek's earnings and leverage are sensitive to oil prices and the rouble exchange rate. We expect oil prices to remain volatile, within $55-$75 per barrel of Brent in 2020, although temporary peaks are possible and the year-average price is likely to be skewed to the downside. Growing non-OPEC+ oil production, particularly in the US, will constrain oil prices amid the deceleration in global economic growth, international trade disputes and rising geopolitical tensions.

Around half of the company's revenue is denominated in foreign currency, compared with only 5% of its capital spending, while most of its operating expenses are in Russian roubles and expenses related to international shipping are denominated in US dollars. If oil prices fall materially (which is not our expectation), the negative effect on EBITDA would be mitigated by the positive effect of a likely weaker rouble.

The floating rouble exchange rate and largely conventional reserves allow the company to be a low-cost producer. We estimate the company's total all-in production costs (including depreciation, lifting costs, transportation and taxes) at $6-$7/boe, including lifting costs of $0.6-$0.8/boe. Yamal LNG enjoys lucrative netback prices because of its tax allowances (zero mineral extraction tax and export duty for natural gas and gas condensate; no property tax and reduced income tax rate for 12 years from the start of production). Arctic LNG 2 is subject to the same tax concessions. The combination of growing production following the ramp-up of Yamal LNG, low costs, tax allowances for LNG projects, regular price indexation for natural gas sold in the domestic market and the ability to market LNG globally will support Novatek's strong credit metrics over the next several years under a broad range of oil price scenarios.

As of 30 September 2019, Novatek had low leverage of 0.5x Moody's-adjusted total debt/EBITDA, down from 0.8x as of year- end 2018. Leverage was even lower on a net debt basis, at 0.1x and 0.5x Moody's-adjusted net debt/EBITDA as of the same dates, respectively, because of the company’s sizeable cash buffer. Assuming the 2020 average oil price at $60 per barrel of Brent and a modest increase in gas production volume, we expect Novatek’s gross leverage to remain below 1.0x and net leverage below 0.5x

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in 2020 (all metrics are Moody's-adjusted). Such metrics would be in line with the company’s conservative financial policy, which anticipates maintaining reported gross leverage at around 1.0x and net leverage below 1.0x.

We expect Novatek’s post-dividend FCF to be negative in 2020, because of the increase in capital spending to more than RUB280 billion (compared with RUB145 billion in the 12 months ended 30 September 2019 and RUB92 billion in 2018), as a result of the start of construction of the LNG construction center in Murmansk, acquisition of new licences, development of greenfields and intensified drilling at legacy fields to contain natural decline rates. However, our FCF calculation does not include the $2.8 billion (around RUB180 billion) proceeds from the sale of a 40% stake in Arctic LNG 2, which Novatek is to receive in 2020. We expect these proceeds to fully or at least mostly cover the company's negative FCF in 2020.

Exhibit 6 Leverage will remain low despite lower gas and oil prices Moody’s-adjusted EBITDA (LHS) Moody’s-adjusted debt/EBITDA (RHS) 400 3.0x 350 2.5x 300 2.0x 250 200 1.5x 150

RUB billions RUB 1.0x 100 0.5x 50 0 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 LTM 2019E 2020F (Sep-19) Sources: Moody’s Financial Metrics™ and Moody's Investors Service forecasts

ESG considerations Novatek’s more-than-80% gas-focused production mix reduces its exposure to carbon transition risk. Natural gas is significantly less carbon intensive than liquid hydrocarbons, with lower carbon emissions in the production process and as a fuel, natural gas emissions are 25% lower than for liquid fuels and 40% lower than for coal, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Oil demand could peak in the next 10-15 years, well before natural gas, which has a central role in the energy transition of power generation away from carbon. Novatek’s business strategy recognises risks and opportunities related to climate change, including the carbon transition risk.

The transition to a low-carbon economy is likely to benefit Novatek, because of the growing demand for gas in the European Union (EU) and Asia, which are the key markets for the company’s LNG exports. The EU’s ambitious goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2030 from the 1990 levels, and achieving zero net emissions by 2050, will support its demand for gas. In the longer term, however, gas will face increasing competition from renewables, with fewer users still needing to switch to natural gas from other fuels.

Novatek aligns its sustainable development strategy with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and has issued its sustainability reports since 2005. In 2018, the company reduced its atmospheric emissions by 23% and had a 97.1% utilisation rate for associated petroleum gas.

Novatek’s corporate governance risk is mitigated by the fact that it is a listed company with no controlling shareholder and demonstrates a good level of public information disclosure, including quarterly and annual operating and financial results. Three out of nine members on its board of directors are independent. The company has high corporate governance scores from several international agencies. Liquidity analysis As of 30 September 2019, Novatek’s liquidity comprised cash and short-term deposits of RUB148 billion, proceeds from the sale of a 40% stake in Arctic LNG 2 of around RUB180 billion, which are to be received in 2020, and operating cash flow of around RUB240

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billion, which we expect the company to generate over the period from Q4 2019 through year-end 2020, complemented by available uncommitted credit facilities of RUB172 billion. This liquidity will comfortably cover the company's debt maturities of RUB24 billion (including lease payments) over the same period, capital spending of more than RUB350 billion and dividend payouts. Novatek’s closest sizeable debt maturity is the $650 million eurobond due in February 2021. Methodology and scorecard We apply our Independent Exploration and Production Industry rating methodology to determine Novatek's rating. This results in an Aa2 scorecard-indicated outcome. Novatek's current rating of Baa2 is below the scorecard-indicated outcome, constrained by Russia’s Baa2 country ceiling for foreign-currency debt.

Exhibit 7 Rating factors PAO Novatek

Current Moody's 12-18 Month Forward View Energy, Oil & Gas - Independent E & P Industry Scorecard [1][2] 30/09/2019 (LTM) As of Feb 2020 [3] Factor 1 : Scale (20%) Measure Score Measure Score a) Average Daily Production (Mboe/d) 1,476 Aa 1,570-1,630 Aa b) Proved Developed Reserves (MMboe) 5,109 Aa 5,100-5,400 Aa Factor 2 : Business Profile (10%) a) Business Profile A A A A Factor 3 : Profitability and Efficiency (25%) a) Leveraged Full-Cycle Ratio 8.6x Aaa 7.0x-9.0x Aaa Factor 4 : Leverage and Coverage (30%) a) E&P Debt / Average Daily Production $1,831.7 Aaa $1,600-$1,700 Aaa b) E&P Debt / PD Reserves boe $0.5 Aaa $0.5-$0.6 Aaa c) RCF / Debt 99.2% Aa 70.3% A d) EBITDA / Interest Expense 38.2x Aaa 36.3x Aaa Factor 5 : Financial Policy (15%) a) Financial Policy A A A A Rating: a) Scorecard-Indicated Outcome Aa2 Aa2 b) Actual Rating Assigned Baa2

[1] All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations. [2] As of 30/09/2019 (LTM). [3] This represents Moody's forward view; not the view of the issuer; and unless noted in the text, does not incorporate significant acquisitions and divestitures. Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

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Appendix

Exhibit 8 Peer comparison PAO Novatek Apache Corporation ConocoPhillips Pioneer Natural Resources Co Baa2 Stable Baa3 Stable A3 Stable Baa2 Stable FYE FYE LTM FYE FYE LTM FYE FYE LTM FYE FYE LTM Dec-17 Dec-18 Sep-19 Dec-17 Dec-18 Sep-19 Dec-17 Dec-18 Sep-19 Dec-17 Dec-18 Sep-19 Revenue (USD millions) $10,001 $13,302 $13,434 $5,811 $7,228 $6,419 $29,106 $36,417 $34,525 $5,414 $8,855 $9,059 Average Daily Production (MBOE / day) 1,406 1,380 1,611 457 466 473 1,377 1,283 1,353 272 320 334 Total Proved Developed Reserves (MBOE) 4,917 5,109 5,109 1,024 1,081 1,081 3,847 4,100 4,100 903 963 963 Leveraged Full-Cycle Ratio 7.9x 9.6x 8.6x -0.1x 1.4x 1.1x 0.0x 1.4x 1.2x 1.4x 2.3x 2.3x EBITDA / Interest Expense 22.4x 25.2x 38.2x 7.4x 9.9x 8.6x 9.0x 17.3x 16.4x 14.0x 19.7x 26.0x E & P Debt / Average Daily Production $2,237 $1,944 $1,690 $19,371 $18,466 $18,642 $18,530 $15,229 $14,591 $12,271 $10,041 $7,851 E&P Debt / Proved Developed Reserves $0.6 $0.5 $0.5 $8.7 $8.0 $8.1 $6.6 $4.8 $4.8 $3.7 $3.3 $2.7 RCF / Debt 77.3% 84.3% 99.2% 23.9% 32.8% 26.4% 23.0% 55.7% 55.3% 66.6% 96.5% 123.3%

All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments. Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 9 Moody's-adjusted debt breakdown PAO Novatek

FYE FYE FYE FYE FYE LTM Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Sep-19 (in RUB millions) As Reported Debt 245,679 358,705 216,765 163,046 181,961 171,247 Pensions 1,167 1,905 2,249 3,198 4,174 4,174 Operating Leases 2,532 236 1,884 0 0 0 Moody's-Adjusted Debt 249,378 360,846 220,898 166,244 186,135 175,421

All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments. Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 10 Moody's-adjusted EBITDA breakdown PAO Novatek

FYE FYE FYE FYE FYE LTM Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Sep-19 (in RUB millions) As Reported EBITDA 75,737 121,713 354,365 243,074 266,374 1,049,465 Pensions 104 152 201 197 137 137 Operating Leases 633 59 471 0 0 0 Interest Expense – Discounting 0 0 -587 -749 -602 -691 Unusual 43,463 19,023 -57,969 -6,446 -30,709 -671,396 Moody's-Adjusted EBITDA 119,937 140,947 296,481 236,076 235,200 377,515

All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments. Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

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Ratings

Exhibit 11 Category Moody's Rating PAO NOVATEK Outlook Stable Issuer Rating Baa2 NOVATEK FINANCE LIMITED Outlook Stable Senior Unsecured Baa2 Source: Moody's Investors Service

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REPORT NUMBER 1214269

10 14 February 2020 PAO Novatek: Update to credit analysis This document has been prepared for the use of Dmitry Terebenin and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminated unless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.