NOVATEK RS Presentation
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“Harnessing the Energy of the Far North” Mark Gyetvay, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board Alexander Palivoda, Head of Investor Relations Goldman Sachs Global Natural Resources Conference London 11-12 November 2015 Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation are not historical facts and are “forward-looking”. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: – projections or expectations of revenues, income (or loss), earnings (or loss) per share, dividends, capital structure or other financial items or ratios; – statements of our plans, objectives or goals, including those related to products or services; – statements of future economic performance; and – statements of assumptions underlying such statements Words such as “believes”, “anticipates”, “expects”, “estimates”, “intends”, “plans”, “outlook” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and risks exist that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. You should be aware that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements When relying on forward-looking statements, you should carefully consider the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and events, especially in light of the political, economic, social and legal environment in which we operate. Such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. We do not make any representation, warranty or prediction that the results anticipated by such forward-looking statements will be achieved, and such forward-looking statements represent, in each case, only one of many possible scenarios and should not be viewed as the most likely or standard scenario 2 Good Performance in Negative Macroeconomic Environment We are one of the Lowest Cost Producers in the world, which makes us very resilient in the current negative macroeconomic environment Our volume growth has not been affected: we continue growing our hydrocarbon production at industry leading rates and increasing the share of more profitable liquids in the overall volumes mix Our margins have not been affected: we have Russian ruble denominated cost base and our gas business benefits from stable regulated price environment, while margins for liquids business are supported by the devaluation of the Russian ruble We had no impairment losses, which is another proof of the high quality and stable profitability of our asset base, resulting in our high resilience to the macro shocks Our longer-term growth has not been affected: we continue progressing successfully with the construction works at our major Yamal LNG project and evaluation of new opportunities in the LNG sphere 3 One of the Lowest Cost Producers with High Quality Conventional Reserve Base 3-year average reserve Hydrocarbon production replacement costs (2012-2014), USD/boe Production20% CAGR (2010-2014) NOVATEK 2,4 15% SWE 9,6 ANADARKO 16,1 NOVATEK 10% EOG 18,9 BG GROUP 21,5 Peer average 5% DEVON 29,1 CHESAPEAKE 29,4 0% APACHE 39,4 Not PIONEER measurable -5% * Not 0 100 200 300 400 500 ENCANA measurable * Production in 2014, mmboe Source: Company data, Bloomberg Note 1: Peer group includes Anadarko, Apache, BG Group, EOG , SWE, EnCana, Chesapeake, Pioneer and Devon. * Not measurable due to the negative reserve changes in 2012-2014. 4 Low Production Costs Denominated in RR Production costs, USD/boe Production costs structure (2014), % 100% 100% 100% Transport; 3% 33,5 34,2 Transport; 15% Taxes; 8% 32,7 Taxes other than income ; 15% 25,1 24,5 23,8 Transport; 63% DD&A; 59% DD&A; 55% 10,6 9,5 Taxes other than 6,2 income ; 21% Lifting costs; 30% DD&A; 11% Lifting costs; 15% 2013 2014 9M'15 Lifting costs; 5% NOVATEK Anadarko Apache (6M'15) NOVATEK Anadarko Apache Source: Company data, Bloomberg 5 EBITDA Dynamics (in USD terms) EBITDA in 1H 2015 vs 1H 2014 EBITDA per boe in 1H 2015 vs 1H 2014 -23% NOVATEK -32% NOVATEK -41% SWE -49% DEVON -48% BG GROUP -49% APACHE -49% DEVON -52% ENCANA -50% PIONEER -53% BG GROUP -52% APACHE -54% SWE -58% EOG -56% PIONEER -59% CHESAPEAKE -58% EOG -62% ENCANA -59% CHESAPEAKE -71% ANADARKO -73% ANADARKO Source: Company data 6 EBITDA per boe Dynamics (in USD terms) EBITDA per boe and production in 1H 2014 EBITDA per boe and production in 1H 2015 50 50 APACHE EOG 40 40 BG GROUP ANADARKO 30 PEER 30 PIONEER AVERAGE DEVON APACHE CHESAPEAKE SWE 20 20 EOG ENCANA PEER EBITDA per boe, USDboe, per EBITDA EBITDA per boe, USDboe, per EBITDA NOVATEK PIONEER AVERAGE BG GROUP DEVON 10 10 SWE NOVATEK CHESAPEAKEANADARKO ENCANA 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Production, mmboe Production, mmboe Source: Company data. 7 Oil&Gas Asset Impairments in the US Asset Impairments Recorded by Net Income/Loss for 48 US Oil&Gas Companies 48 US Oil&Gas Companies ($ billion) ($ billion) 33.0 9.8 5.0 3.2 3.0 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 18.6 18.2 14.5 (15.0) (16.3) 0.4 0.7 0.9 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 (25.9) Source: Company data, Evaluate Energy 8 Cash Flow Structure in 1H’15 % of Operating cash flow 250% Investments New shares Increase in cash 200% Dividends Debt service 150% Disposals New shares Investments Increase in cash Borrowings Dividends Disposals 100% Cash Disposals Investments IncreaseDividends in cash Investments CAPEX Debt service Dividends CAPEX 50% OCF OCF OCF OCF Debt service CAPEX CAPEX 0% sources uses sources uses sources uses sources uses NOVATEK International Peers International Majors Russian Oil&Gas Note: International Peers include: Chesapeake, BG Group, Devon, Apache, Encana, Anadarko, EOG, Pioneer, SWE. International Majors include: ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, PetroChina, Total, Chevron, Statoil, Eni. Russian Oil & Gas companies include: Gazprom, Rosneft, Lukoil. 10 Compelling Investment Story World-class conventional resource base: rank #4 globally by proved natural gas reserves Low cost structure: rank #2 by lowest Finding & Development and Reserve Replacement costs according to IHS Herold Global Upstream Performance Review 2015 Full value chain integration: Purovsky Plant and Ust-Luga Complex enable to process unstable gas condensate into high value-added petroleum products Experienced management team: >20 years in the Russian gas business Strong financial and operational results Sustainable growth model with unique industry positioning and competitive advantages 10 Leveraging Our Core Business Strengths Organic growth platform based on ample reserves Simple and transparent Compelling business case, group structure robust model, clear strategy High standards of corporate Strong profitability and cost governance and advantage transparency Committed owners and Low debt levels and strong experienced management creditor protection Creating shareholder value 11 Delivering on Core Strategy (mid-term review) Strategic Goals Results: 2011 – 2014 • Total P1 reserves increased by 56% Increasing Resource • Increased our stake in the SeverEnergia JV and acquired a 50% stake in the Nortgas JV Base • Acquired the Trekhbugorny license area and the East-Tazovskoye field • Increased gas and liquids production by 67% to 62 bcm and Increasing Production 6 mmt respectively • Expanded processing capacity of the Purovsky plant from 5 to 11 mmt Maintaining Low Cost • #1 lowest cost producer according to IHS Herold Structure • Lifting costs per boe – $0.49 in 2014 vs. $0.53 in 2010 • Optimized cost structure through infrastructure investments • The share of end-customers in gas sales increased from 64% to 94% Maximizing Margins • Launched the Ust-Luga gas condensate fractionation facility • The share of liquids in the Company’s EBITDA reached 50% Creating Shareholder • Total Revenue CAGR 32.2% • EBITDA CAGR 29.8% Value • Dividend CAGR 26.7% 12 Positions in the World Proved gas reserves as at 31.12.10 (SEC), bcm Proved gas reserves as at 31.12.14 (SEC), bcm Gazprom 18,992 Gazprom 18,941 ExxonMobil 2,232 ExxonMobil 1,963 Petrochina 1,855 Petrochina 1,963 Shell 1,335 NOVATEK 1,747 #4 BP 1,209 Rosneft 1,329 NOVATEK 1,144 #6 BP 1,266 Total 730 Shell 1,142 Chevron 687 Total 951 Lukoil 669 Chevron 824 ConnocoPhi… 615 Lukoil 678 Gas production in 2010, bcm Gas production in 2014, bcm Gazprom 480 Gazprom 488 ExxonMobil 134 ExxonMobil 124 Shell 101 Shell 102 BP 92 Petrochina 79 Petrochina 63 BP Total 58 78 Total Chevron 52 64 #7 ConocoPhillips 51 NOVATEK 62 Eni 47 Chevron 53 Statoil 43 ConocoPhillips 46 NOVATEK 37 #11 Eni 45 Source: Bloomberg, company data. 13 SEC Proved Reserves Reserve replacement ratio in 2011-2014 – 367% mmboe 5,911 (2,198) (1,679) 12,578 12,578 12,578 12,578 Liquids 9% 2,456 26% Others Disposals: PU 60% Arcticgas (-4.9%) 2014 2% Khancheyskoye 8,088 Yamal LNG (-20%) 2013 6% Nortgas Sibneftegas (-51%) 2013 9% East-Tarkosalinskoye Acquisitions: Yamal LNG (-20%) 2011 Gas East-Tazovskoye field 2013 16% South-Tambeyskoye Arcticgas (+34.3%) 2013 91% Nortgas (+1%) 2013 Nortgas (+49%) 2012 20% Yurkharovskoye Utrenneye field 2011 PD Geofizicheskoye field 2011 40% Yamal LNG (+49%) 2011 21% Arcticgas 2010 Organic Acquisitions Disposals