Renewable Energy Prospects for the Russian Federation, a Remap

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Renewable Energy Prospects for the Russian Federation, a Remap REMAP 2030 RENEWABLE ENERGY PROSPECTS FOR THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION RENEWABLE ENERGY PROSPECTS FOR THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION REMAP 2030 APRIL 2017 WORKING PAPER Copyright © IRENA 2017 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN 978-92-9260-021-1 (Print) ISBN 978-92-9260-022-8 (PDF) AboutIRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and fi nancial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. This report and other supporting material are available for download through wwwirenaorgremap Acknowledgements This publication has benefi ted from valuable comments and guidance provided by the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation (Alexey Texler, Natalia Nozdrina, Artem Nedaikhlib and Yulia Gorlova). It was reviewed at three meetings that took place in Moscow, on 26 October 2015, 27 April 2016 and 12 October 2017, and benefi ted from the input of the REmap Russia working group. Additional review was provided by Igor Bashmakov and Alexei Lunin (Centre for Energy Effi ciency), Anatole Boute (The Chinese University of Hong Kong), Georgy Ermolenko (Higher School of Economics), Stefan Gsänger and Roman Denisov (World Wind Energy Association), Ilya Kramarenko and Grigory Yulkin (International Sustainable Energy Development Centre under the auspices of UNESCO), Oleg Popel (Joint Institute for High Temperatures of the Russian Academy of Sciences), Patrick Willems (Renewable Energy Development Association), Alexey Zhikharev (Vygon Consulting, Renewable Energy Development Association) and Ellen von Zitzewitz (Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany in Moscow). Draft results were presented during the International Renewable Energy Congress – XXI: Energy & Economic Effi ciency, 27-28 October, 2015; the 4th International Forum on Energy Effi ciency and Energy Saving, 19-21 November, 2015; the International Exhibition- Forum “EcoTech”, 26-29 April, 2016; Renewable Energy Development in the Russian Far East, 9-11 June, 2016; and the International Renewable Energy Congress – XXI: Energy & Economic Effi ciency, 13-14 October, 2016. IRENA colleagues Rabia Ferroukhi, Sakari Oksanen, Alvaro Lopez-Pena, Roland Roesch, Marcin Scigan and Salvatore Vinci have also provided valuable feedback. Finally, a special thanks is due to Vladimir Berdin, who worked on the report as a consultant and provided invaluable input and support throughout the project. Authors: Dolf Gielen and Deger Saygin (IRENA). Report citation: IRENA (2017), REmap 2030 Renewable Energy Prospects for Russian Federation, Working paper, IRENA, Abu Dhabi. wwwirenaorgremap For further information or to provide feedback, please contact the REmap team at remap@irenaorg Disclaimer All information and data used in the preparation of this working paper was provided by the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation and should not be taken as refl ecting the views of IRENA or its Members� During the analysis, reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the technical reliability of the renewable energy material� However, the inclusion of such material, and the use and presentation of all information, statistics and data as well as all designations employed herein do not imply the expression of any opinion or position on the part of, or endorsement by, IRENA or its Members concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries� Neither IRENA nor any of its offi cials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein� The mention of specifi c projects, companies, commercial enterprises or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to any others that are not mentioned� CONTENTS FIGURES �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������II TABLES ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� III ABBREVIATIONS ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������IV KEY FINDINGS ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������1 КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ ВЫВОДЫ ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������3 1� INTRODUCTION TO IRENA’S REMAP WORK AND BRIEF METHODOLOGY ��������������������������������������������������� 6 1�1 IRENA’s REmap programme��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6 1�2 The REmap approach ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6 1�3 Metrics for assessing REmap Options ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������7 1�4 Main sources of information and assumptions for REmap Russia �������������������������������������������������������������� 9 2 CURRENT RENEWABLE ENERGY SITUATION IN RUSSIA ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������11 2�1 Current status of renewables �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������11 2�2 Drivers ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������20 2�3 Brief overview of the current energy policy framework �������������������������������������������������������������������������������25 2�4 Renewables potential by resource and by region �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 32 3 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF ENERGY SECTORS AND ENERGY MARKETS ���������������������������������������������������������������36 3�1 Power sector structure �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������36 3�2 Energy consumption by sector and technology ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 37 3�3 Conventional energy reserves, production and trade ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������45 3�4 Energy prices and subsidies �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������48 4� WHERE WOULD THE REFERENCE CASE TAKE RENEWABLES BY 2030? ���������������������������������������������������50 5� POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS BEYOND THE REFERENCE CASE IN 2030 �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������51 5�1 Selection of REmap Options ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������51 5�2 Renewable energy use: prospects to 2030 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������54 5�3 Renewable energy cost and benefits ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������58 5�4 Barriers to renewable energy uptake and suggested solutions �����������������������������������������������������������������62 REFERENCES ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������69 ANNEX A: Energy price assumptions ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 75 ANNEX B: Technology cost and performance of analysed technologies ��������������������������������������������������������������76 ANNEX C: Resource potential �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������79
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