Grand Paris Towards New Centres

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PROSPECTIVE STUDY 2019 GRAND PARIS TOWARDS NEW CENTRES

PART 1 CHALLENGES & PERSPECTIVES COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL FRANCE INTRODUCTION

Colliers International France

INTRODUCTION SUMMARY

THE NEED FOR A GREATER PARIS

A. Paris : a "small" World City 4 When we think of "Grand Paris” [Greater Paris], we often think of the B. Urban trends 10 future means of transport that will surround the inner city of Paris by C. The Inner Suburbs, going through the heart of suburbs that are sometimes very far away. a future territory 12 But why make such a system? And above all, what impacts will there be? What should we take from the situation In addition to the clear political will to extend the city's current in Paris? 16 boundaries, the fact remains that the melting pot of the current economic and residential renewal in Paris is indeed located in its suburbs. THE GRAND PARIS

The construction of such an important transport system will create new A. Project Overview 18 centres and therefore there are more potential residential areas to B. A system for and towards the suburbs 22 choose from, both for residents and companies. C. What are the chances of success? 26

Understanding the challenges posed by this system, by being aware of the What to remember from this new significant upheaval the region will face, can contribute to a better implementation system? 30 and greater coherence in development strategies from people in the public and private sectors.

At Colliers, we are convinced that the Grand Paris Express will have a significant impact on the territory’s general organisation. That is why we are suggesting to support our vision through two studies. In this first document, we will analyse the relevance of such a system for the Greater Paris Metropolitan Area by putting factual elements into perspective and we will determine the likelihood of it being a success.

Then in a second study that is still to be published, we will interpret the likelihood of new hubs emerging by assessing future sources of value. Finally, we will offer you a forward-looking vision for the future of the region. © Société du Grand Paris

2 3 A NECESSITY

THE NEED LONDON Area: 1,572 km² FOR A GREATER PARIS Inhabitants: 9 million Density: 5,590 inhabitants/km²

Chapter 1

BERLIN Area: 892 km² Inhabitants: 4 million Density: 4,230 inhabitants/km²

A. PARIS: A "SMALL" WORLD CITY

A major challenge PARIS INNER CITY According to a recent ranking, with its current boundaries, Paris On the basis of this observation, and after much debate, on 1 Area: 105 km² does not have enough inhabitants to be part of the 50 largest cities January 2016 it was decided to make the city bigger by creating Inhabitants: 2 million in the world. However, with its 20,781 inhabitants/km², it ranks 6th an EPCI* with its own tax system within the boundaries of Paris, Density: 20,781 inhabitants/km² in the ranking of the most densely populated cities, just behind its neighbouring departments and some communes in the outer Bombay. suburbs. Ultimately, the new entity has more than 7 million inhabitants in an What does this mean? area of around 814 km² (average density: 8,633 inhabitants/km²). Firstly, that Paris is a small city. Secondly, that its density reflects It offers Paris new land reserves because the urban density in the that it is nearly full. suburbs is far lower than in the inner city. Aware that the heart of its economic and social renewal is In other words, its lack of available land no longer happening in the suburbs, the legislation has therefore extended NEW YORK facilitate large-scale development or redevelopment the city's boundaries, an initiative that has been combined with the Area: 785 km² opportunities. construction of a new public transport system designed primarily Inhabitants: 9 million for the suburbs: The Grand Paris Express. PARIS Density: 10,984 inhabitants/km² INNER CITY * Etablissement Public de Coopération Intercommunale - Public Establishment for Inter-municipal Cooperation Area: 709 km² Inhabitants: 5 million Density: 6,812 inhabitants/km²

0 10 20 30 km

4 5 A NECESSITY While in 1982, Paris A significant challenge DISTRIBUTION OF INHABITANTS AND EMPLOYMENT IN ÎLE-DE- accounted for 51% of all FRANCE IN 1982 AND 2015 5.31 M +33% jobs related to metropolitan Population: Employment roles, it now accounts for Employment related to metropolitan roles* only 39%. 4.57 M +17%

3.99 M 4 Million 3.90 M

3 Million

2.18 M 2.21 M +1% 2.04 M 2 Million % +25 1.86 M 1.81 M 1.79 M +47% 1.63 M -1%

1.27 M

1 million

0.8 million

0.6 million 0.46 0.49 % 0.4 million +83% +183 0.25 0.25 0.16 % 0.2 Million 0.09 +200

0 PARIS INNER SUBURBS OUTER SUBURBS PARIS INNER SUBURBS OUTER SUBURBS 1982 2015

Source: INSEE Employment Analyses Municipal Data 1982 / 2015, INSEE Population Data 1982 / 2015.

Over the last three decades, the Île-de-France region has seen The dynamism of the suburbs therefore invites us to around a 20% net increase in its population. More specifically, this adopt a more inclusive vision of this space, in that the increase was particularly significant in the inner suburbs (+17%) centre of economic and demographic resources is moved and outer suburbs (+33%) but there was next to no increase in outside the city centre. Paris (+1%). As for employment, the progress is even more striking. The inner While in 1982 Paris accounted for 51% of this employment, it now and outer suburbs recorded variations of +25% and +47%, while accounts for only 39%. Because of its dynamism, the inner suburbs

© GettyImages / Luis Alvarez the inner city tended to decline: the latter now accounts for only tend to be the first area receiving these jobs. 31% of total employment in the Île-de-France region, compared to Managing development on the outskirts and its link to the city is 38% thirty years ago. therefore necessary to organise and offer an economic and urban The study of employment related to metropolitan roles*, i.e. those unit that is able to compete with the world's largest metropolises. that have executives or business leaders in so-called strategic sectors, reveals a very distinct qualitative and quantitative development in the inner and outer suburbs.

6 * Jobs related to research design, intellectual services, business-to-business trade, 7 management and cultural and leisure activities. A NECESSITY

Source: GMES Urban Atlas 2012 USE OF SPACE FOR HOUSING

2% 6% What source of growth? 4 2% 97% of the Parisian territory dedicated to housing now has a floor Moreover, given the recommendations from the WHO and the area ratio greater than 80%. If you look closely, Paris hardly has any State’s wishes, the city can no longer rely on urban sprawl but are land reserves now. having to increase the density of what already exists. On the other hand, the inner suburbs still have vast land availabilities and appear to be a powerful source of growth for the In this context, the inner suburbs have become highly capital. strategic territories in the Grand Paris scheme.

* The floor area ratio (FAR) is a ratio that measures the amount of land occupied by a building. 1% 43% 7%

% 8 1

% 97%

P 3

)

= I

I (

O U H

T T I ) N O D % F E T 1 N T 4 H A C E I = E T D O E G R T D AL SE N LAND U I S S U U O B H U O T D R E T B A S IC ( D AM E O E D UN US T O ND F THE TOTAL LA 49%

O ) % U 9 T = G E N R SI S OU U H BU TO R TED B ICA S (A DED MOU USE NT OF THE TOTAL LAND 32%

Dense housing Sparse housing Sparse housing Sparse housing Sparse housing (FAR> 80%) (FAR 50-80%) (FAR 30-50%) (FAR 10-30%) (FAR < 10%)

* The floor area ratio (FAR) is a ratio that measures the amount of land occupied by a building.

8 9 © 123REF / ostill A NECESSITY

Sources: SIRENE Source: SIRENE database - target sam- NUMBER OF FACILITIES WITH AT LEAST database, INSEE COMPOSITION BY SIZE ple: establishments with 10 employees 10 EMPLOYEES PER 1,000 INHABITANTS OF FACILITIES or more Economic specialisations

Today, Paris’ city centre still has a high number of large facilities IT, energy, telecommunications and, more generally, business but also a multitude of smaller ones, unlike in the suburbs, which is support. home to many mid-sized facilities in large tertiary patches. These "patches" are centred around Paris and follow the main However, the star shape of the current transport network transport lines of the Île-de-France rail network into the centre. does not allow for the development of effective synergies The economic system is also marked by great specialisations. between compatible economic groups. Paris’ centre is focused on finance and the public sector, while The development of a system that can promote trade the peripheral area is more focused on jobs in communications, between these sectors therefore seems to be a necessity.

AVERAGE SIZE OF FACILITIES MAJOR ECONOMIC SPECIALISATIONS (SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE)

- 4 6 10 20 + 10 to 19 employees 20 to 99 employees 100 employees and over 43% 44% 12% 46% 37% 17% 52% 39% 9% 57% 35% 7% 69% 27% 4% balanced profile* 54% 37% 9%

B. URBAN TRENDS

Economic size distribution

The Parisian centre and its western pericentral districts have a In the suburbs, the differences are even more striking. It is easy to high ratio of economic facilities with more than 10 employees per compare a western fringe, which has a significant number of large 1,000 inhabitants. This concentration continues in areas such as facilities, with an eastern fringe, where 60% or even 70% of the 500 employees or more Primary Specialisation Secondary Specialisation Boulogne, Neuilly, Levallois and La Défense. On the other hand, facilities have less than 20 employees. banking, insurance, finance, 50 to 499 employees consulting, services real estate, lawyers, legal as we move further away from the centre, this density tends to These differences raise the question of the size distribution of 50 to 199 employees publishing, media, communica- banking, insurance, finance, decrease, giving way to more residential areas. economic ecosystems. Paris also seems to benefit from both its tions, IT consulting, services 20 to 49 employees A study of the average composition of institutions based on their excellent accessibility and the mix of different sized companies. It water, energy, recycling, telecom- publishing, media, communica- Existing metro & RER lines munications, business support tions, IT size reveals significant differences. While Parisian tertiary centres is therefore questionable whether the pericentral sectors, which Grand Paris Express lines (M14 & M15) education, training, health administration, public sector, are home to a set of facilities that are not far off the balanced will be considerably better connected in the future, will take full partly state controlled, research administration, public sector, profile*, the other districts have a greater proportion of smaller advantage of their new position, or whether they will lack a certain partly state controlled, research education, training, health facilities. economic element to be completely successful. no or little economic specialisation

Source: Sirene Directory 10 11 A NECESSITY

C. THE INNER SUBURBS, A FUTURE TERRITORY An active territory

Between 2008 and 2015, the Île-de-France region recorded a 3.9% All communes have to stop planning their development as isolated increase in population and a 1.5% increase in employment rates. bodies and to make plans together, where success is measured A territory with assets This growth has not been uniform: the communes nearest the collectively. inner city have been particularly dynamic in terms of jobs and The analysis of social fundamentals (inhabitants’ profiles) still residents. This raises the question of the supporting transport and shows that there are territories with very significant differences. Over the last 30 years, the region has seen RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY OVER THE LAST 5 YEARS facilities available to them. It is therefore vital that we are all on the Creating a strong link between these territories will therefore its population grow by 20% from 10 to 12 same page to ensure harmonious development within this space. trigger value creation. million inhabitants. A 1/3 of this increase Companies will therefore be offered multi-resource pools, was absorbed by the inner suburbs and 2/3 Better still, residential growth in the immediate vicinity of providing many rich labour pools that are necessary for their by the outer suburbs. future Grand Paris Express stations (900 m around the development. stations), was nearly twice that of the regional average In Paris, 36% of the inhabitants moved in (6.9% compared to 3.9%). within the last 5 years, compared to 31% 2.35 and 32% in the inner and outer suburbs. 13% of these people who have newly moved to Paris used to live outside the 1.318 1.5 M area where they are currently residing, 48 compared to 9% and 8% for the inner and 3.0 M outer suburbs. More specifically, the inner 1.82 EMPLOYMENT AND INHABITANT DYNAMICS INHABITANTS’ PROFILES city attracts small households, unlike the 27 1.83 outskirts, which attract large households. 0.8 M 1.97 41% of Île-de-France residents aged 20 to 31 668 1.4 M 24 reside in Paris. Single people are 2 to 3 1.62 times more represented in the inner city 1.48 than in the outskirts. 14 Paris therefore attracts young, student populations, who as life goes on (and their household grows), gradually move out to the outskirts, driven by the lack of bigger places on offer, or even because of an increase in accommodation prices which they deem to be excessive.

The combination of population 57 growth and leaving large 14 households, reinforce the creation 2.10 of a pool of assets outside the inner 2.39 city, where many jobs are located. One of the direct consequences is 1.6 M the progressive congestion of means 2.50 of transport, both road and rail, 1.464 3.6 M particularly in the inner city.

Employment growth Over-represented socioprofessional categories Populations established Inter-zone residential mobility Low High 1 M 10 High presence of traders, craftsmen, business leaders, executives & for less than 5 years (in thousands of inhabitants) high-level intellectual professions

High Outstanding presence in high-level intellectual professions Île-de-France Intra-zone residential mobility & intermediate professions Populations established average 1 M 10 (in thousands of inhabitants) +3.9% High presence in farmers, intermediate professions, traders, crafts- Low men & business leaders

for at least 5 years Increase in housing Outstanding presence in employees, workers & intermediate Average size of households professions Île-de-France 2.50 moving house average High presence in workers & employees +1.5%

12 13 Sources: Residential mobility files INSEE 2015 Source: INSEE data A NECESSITY

Between 2011 and 2017, Parisian companies that chose to move buildings adapted to new challenges, while benefiting from its DAILY COMMUTING TO AND FROM WORK IN ÎLE- EVOLUTION OF THE NUMBER OF JOBS AND chose to go to the inner suburbs. On the other hand, businesses immediate proximity to Paris. DE-FRANCE IN 2015 PUBLIC TRANSPORT USERS (2006-2015) that were already located in the inner suburbs chose to stay in this Secondly, that Paris is losing its role as a driving force to its suburbs. area. In 2011, the city centre accounted for 42% of the major business Another striking fact is that for every company with national or names established in the region, compared to 40% six years later: 1.2 international ranking* that arrived in Paris between 2011 and losing out to the inner suburbs. +50 2017, two left. Conversely, for every two companies with national With the arrival of the Grand Paris Express, this trend is expected to % or international ranking that arrived in the inner suburbs between increase even further, as some companies deem that the suburbs +4 % % 2011 and 2017, only one left. meet their accessibility requirements. 2.0 M 62 % + 5 73% +5 What does this mean? Firstly, that the inner suburbs have become 2.0 M + 3% the first regeneration area for corporate real estate needs. Thanks 0.6 +17 0.3 % +8 0.7 1.7 M % + 2 to its vast land reserves, it offers the possibility of developing office 58 % 1.1 M % +4 + 2 +2% 0.4 77% 0.5 +21 % 62% +1% +1 +33 +1 74% DESTINATION AREA FOR PARISIAN COMPANIES DESTINATION AREA FOR COMPANIES FROM THE THAT MOVED BETWEEN 2011-17 INNER SUBURBS THAT MOVED BETWEEN 2011-17

% % 100 % 100 % 81 27 % % % 48 % 73 % 35 % 61 % 80 80 71 78% 60% 60% 0.2 -2 0.1 -9 % % % % % 40 40 60 68 % +3 +10 +5 % 1.7 M +1% + 0 20% 20% 1.4 2.3 M + 2% %

20 TO 49 EMPLOYEES 50 TO 199 EMPLOYEES 200 TO 499 EMPLOYEES 500 EMPLOYEES AND OVER 20 TO 49 EMPLOYEES 50 TO 199 EMPLOYEES 200 TO 499 EMPLOYEES 500 EMPLOYEES AND OVER 85 0% 0%

Inner-city Paris Inner suburbs Outer suburbs Outwith the Number of adults of working age working in +3% Percentage of adults of working age who are using public Parisian area / 1.0 M the area (in millions) and its evolution (in %) transport and evolution of their use of public transport Abroad 1.0 M Number of adults of working age living in Percentage of adults of working age using other means the area (in millions) and its evolution (in %) of transport EVOLUTION OF THE LOCATION OF MAJOR LOCATION OF MAJOR COMPANIES COMPANIES ESTABLISHED IN ESTABLISHED IN ÎLE-DE-FRANCE IN 2017 0.6 Number of adults of working age who +10 Evolution of the number of adults of working ÎLE-DE-FRANCE BETWEEN 2011 AND 2017 commute every day (in millions) -1 age who commute every day (in thousands)

Outer suburbs Sources: Professional mobility files INSEE 2006 / 2015 % INNER OUTER 21 Inner-city Paris % PARIS SUBURBS SUBURBS 40 Commuting to and from work +2PTS Living in Paris means you are very well connected and the star- Between 2006 and 2015, the working population/ shaped network facilitates you easily going to and from the city and residents in the inner suburbs jumped up by 64,000, i.e. 0PTS suburbs. On the other hand, living in the suburbs means you can half of the region’s growth, and 91,000 jobs were created, access public transport from along one of the star's points, which - 2PTS i.e.. ¾ of the region’s profits. How can we not question therefore naturally head towards the city centre. 39% the efficiency of the transport network when this sector is currently the main area for regional growth? Inner suburbs The figures say it all: while 65% of Parisians use public transport every day, only 48% of inhabitants in the inner suburbs and 30% in the outer suburbs use it. * Source: Colliers International France on the basis of a sample drawn from the top 500 company names in France ranked by turnover in 91 different economic activity sectors (NAF2 classifica- tion): Île-de-France was home to 11,801 of these company names in 2011 and 11,871 in 2017. A detailed study in transport use reveals the weakness in using public transport when it comes to commuting between suburbs.

14 15 A NECESSITY

WHAT SHOULD WE TAKE FROM THE SITUATION IN PARIS?

With its current boundaries, Paris is a "small" city compared to other large world metropolises.

Internal redevelopment opportunities are limited in view of the extremely low supply of land reserves.

The demographic and economic dynamism of

the suburbs is in full swing, tending to shift the © Société du Grand Paris / Wilmotte & Associés economic and social centre of gravity outside the inner city.

Medium and large companies located in Paris are moving out to the suburbs.

The suburbs now offer a whole range of business clusters and population pools that are able to offer just as many solutions, sources of expertise and skills that are attractive to companies.

But also:

The Parisian transport network is inadequate because it is above all designed in accordance with a radial model that does not allow economic and social ecosystems to be connected in line with a tangential logic.

This network does not make it possible to meet the modern challenges of commuting in and out of work; people outwith the inner city have no choice but to favour other means of transport.

Based on this observation, extending the city's boundaries, along with building a major transport system to complement the existing one and that is focused on the suburbs, seems an obvious solution.

16 17 THE GP EXPRESS

Diagram on the left

Diagram of intentions through clusters (Source: ateliergrandparis.fr, 2011)

Diagram on the right

Current and future public transport system (Source : Société du Grand Paris)

THE GRAND PARIS EXPRESS

Chapter 2

A. PROJECT OVERVIEW Route

road style metro. Driven by President Nicolas Sarkozy, it was The new system’s first objective is therefore to complete the Brief history of a project(s) Christian Blanc who gave it that extra push, who in his capacity as current transport system by breaking up its star-shaped structure. Secretary of State for Greater Paris, saw it as an incredible means It is true that the only purpose of the lines currently in service is of achieving an extended administrative vision of Paris in pursuing to draw people from the outskirts into the heart of the inner city. Since the early 1990s, the Development and Planning Institute of the Île-de- three objectives: In fact, after extending certain existing metro lines (M1, M4, M11, France Region [Institut d'Aménagement et d'Urbanisme de la Région Île-de- • Making struggling areas more accessible, such as Seine-Saint- M14) and building additional tram lines, the Greater Paris Express France - IAURIF] has been suggesting to build a ring road style metro that Denis. system will complete this package. connects all the ends of the metro lines around one kilometre from Paris. • Connecting pericentral clusters that are currently being Known as “Orbitale” [Orbital], this project was finally abandoned, although it established through a vision of 7 excellent hubs. By introducing a double loop, it will create transversal was included in the 1994 Development Scheme for the Île-de-France Region • Reducing overcrowding in the inner city. links between all the territories and will offer links [Schéma de Développement de la Région Île-de-France - SDRIF]. Finally, while establishing a new administrative entity (the Greater between territories that sometimes have very different In 2004, under the chairmanship of Anne-Marie Idrac, the Paris Public Paris Metropolitan Area) is struggling to get under way, creating social and economic approaches. Transport System once again suggested the possibility of building a ring the new means of transport is becoming a reality.

18 19 THE GP EXPRESS

Big Numbers Implementation schedule ROUTE AND OPENING DATES OF THE GRAND PARIS EXPRESS STATIONS

Aéroport Charles Le Grand Paris Express falls within the de Gaulle (T4) According to the Société du Grand Paris,

B Aéroport Charles category of "Major Projects", i. e. those RER B the Grand Paris Express, and its corollary de Gaulle (T2) Vers that require more than 20 years to be Cergy line 14, will eventually form the backbone RER A RER C RER D completed and are by nature subject to all LIGNE 17 B of the public transport in the Île-de-France

RER B kinds of superlatives. The main features of RER E Le Bourget Region. The deployment of this system

RER A Aéroport this fully automated system are as follows LIGNE 17 adopts the following approach:

LIGNES 16 ET 17 RER B A LIGNE 16 Vers Mantes- la-Jolie LIGNE 15 LIGNE 15 1. Firstly, continuing line 14 to the North in order to support and complete the RER A E LIGNE 16 A LIGNE 14 FUTURE RER E thorough urban renewal currently taking RER E RER C

RER A LIGNE 15 E DISTANCE KM RER E place in the heart of the Batignolles / Clichy COVERED / Saint-Ouen / Saint Denis areas. 200 LIGNE 14 i.e. the equivalent of the distance covered RER A RER A RER C RER B

by the current metro network. RER D 2. As the Olympic Games are being held LIGNE 18 LIGNE 15 here in 2024, ensuring Orly airport is well RER C LIGNE 15 RER A RER C RER E C connected. NEW LINES C LIGNE 15 LINES B

LIGNE 14 3. Facilitating trade in the southern suburbs, © Laurent Villeret, Société du Grand Paris an area that is praised by companies as 4 A RER C a territory that is used for a variety of LIGNE 18 LIGNE 18

RER C C Aéroport purposes and that benefits from vast land dOrly NEW reserves. RER D RER D STATIONS B STATIONS RER B 68 4. Continuing to make the Seine-Saint- where 9 out of 10 of the stations on the Stations currently open Opening between 2026 and 2027 Denis area more accessible, via the main ring will be interconnected with Opening between 2020 and 2021 Opening in 2030 or later junction between Saint-Denis-Pleyel and another metro or RER line and 3/4 of Opening between 2024 and 2025 Clichy-Montfermeil, with the area seeing them will have direct access to the Central the greatest population variations over the Business District (CBD*). ©Alstom - Design & Styling ©Alstom - Design & Styling OPENING SCHEDULE OF BRANCH LINES (PROJECTIONS) past 10 years.

2030 & lines: 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 after 5. Connecting Orly to Saclay in order to TRAIN finally offer an effective means of transport CAPACITY PROGRESSIVE DIRECT JOB 14 to companies and universities located on 1,000 IMPLEMENTA- CREATION St-Lazare Mairie de St-Ouen St-Denis Pleyel Olympiades Orly the plateau. PASSENGERS TION 2020 20,000 15 travelling at an average speed of 55 km/h, Pont de Sèvres St-Denis Pleyel 6. Refining the whole system by connecting AUDIT Noisy-Champs Champigny-Centre including stops, compared to 22 km/h on 2030 La Défense to Saint-Cloud and Champigny- the current network. INDIRECT JOB 16 Centre to St-Denis Pleyel. CREATION St-Denis Pleyel Noisy-Champs Clichy Montfermeil 30,000 7. And if possible, completing the system ESTIMATED BILLION 17 by connecting Versailles to La Défense. EXPECTED COSTS St-Denis Pleyel Triangle de Gonesse Le Mesnil-Amelot DAILY TRIPS M €35 Le Bourget TUNNELLING 2.5 MACHINES USED 18 Massy-Palaiseau Orly Versailles Chantiers in addition to the 5.5 million that the 20 OVER 15 YEARS CEA St-Aubin Nanterre-la-Folie St-Denis Pleyel current network already accommodates.

Source: Société du Grand Paris

20 21 THE GP EXPRESS

B. A SYSTEM FOR AND TOWARDS THE SUBURBS

General benefits

DIAGRAM OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM, BOTH MAIN AND WITH THE Currently, only 19% of the territory has an average access time of The only problem is that the GPE has to run without any problems, INTERCONNECTIONS (LINES 14 AND 15) less than 60 minutes to the rest of the metropolis. Thanks to the as there will be virtually no alternative heavy transport means in GPE, this percentage will reach more than 41%. the event that it breaks down.

La Plaine-Stade Another observation is that nearly 82% of inner city Paris can de France potentially reach the rest of the Greater Paris Metropolitan Area in Refining access times can therefore disrupt the ranking St-Denis Pleyel Mairie d'Aubervilliers less than an hour, compared to only 11% of its suburbs. of territories. Indeed, new hubs will emerge and compete Les Grésillons 2 2 1 Fort d'Aubervilliers 1 1 Les Agnettes Drancy Bobigny With the arrival of the GPE, Paris will see further improvements directly with Paris’ inner city. 1 Mairie de 1 St-ouen 1 in the quality of its geographic coverage, but the most obvious Bois-Colombes 1 2 Bobigny Pablo Picasso St-ouen impacts will be on the suburbs: more than 35% of its territory will Bécon Pont de Bondy Les Bruyères 1 1 RER 1 be less than an hour away from the rest of the metropolis. Bondy 6 Pont 2 La Défense 1 Cardinet Nanterre Rosny La Folie 1 2 Bois Perrier

Nanterre Val de La Boule 1 4 Fontenay 4 Noisy- Rueil-Suresnes CBD Champs "Mont Valérien" Nogent-le- 1 Perreux

Champigny St-Cloud 2 Bry-Villiers- Centre Champigny CURRENT AVERAGE ACCESS TIME TO THE GREATER FUTURE AVERAGE ACCESS TIME TO THE GREATER 1 St-Maur Pont de Sèvres 1 Créteil PARIS METROPOLITAN AREA PARIS METROPOLITAN AREA

Issy RER E 2 Kremlin 1 Créteil l’Échat Bicêtre Hôpital Fort d'Issy Vanves Clamart 1 1 Le vert de Maisons

Châtillon Montrouge 2 1 Les Ardoines 1 1 Bagneux 1 1 2 Vitry Centre Arcueil Cachan Villejuif Louis Aragon Villejuif Institut Gustave Roussy

2 1 1

M.I.N. Chevilly Pont de Rungis Station withoutStation direct with direct Aéroportd'Orly access to theaccess CBD to the CBD 3 “communes” Porte de Thiais Station with an interconnection n n (number of interconnections)

Station without an interconnection

Sources: Colliers International France, Calculator of the Société du Grand Paris, Reference time for access to the CBD based on accessibility to the Saint Lazare station

Interconnections

Of the 34 stations in the first ring of the Grand Tangential connections will also be greatly Paris Express, only two will not be connected improved. to another line on the Île-de-France heavy rail network. The system will become the transmission Of these 34 stations, 20 will have direct access belt for inter-suburb exchanges and to the Central Business District (CBD*). therefore an incredible means of Another observation is that the CBD is pooling all the territory’s strengths. currently not well connected to the two major Travel time less than 60 min Travel time over 60 min airports in Paris (Roissy-CDG and Orly); thanks

to the GPE, in the future, it will be possible to * The CBD is at the centre of everything and is made up of Paris’ Source: Calculator of the Société du Grand Paris reach them in less than 30 minutes. 1st,2nd, 8th, 9th, 16th and 17th districts (source Immostat).

22 23 THE GP EXPRESS

Space-time compression

The impact of the GPE on accessibility and serving different populations will vary. Therefore, Paris will not be very effected by saving travel time. On the other hand, the suburbs, and more precisely the areas located near a future station, will see their accessibility improve, sometimes with a much better outreach than in the city centre.

In terms of average jobs and populations covered by the service, Paris will maintain its number one position, but the benefits of the GPE will once again be very limited. On the other hand, the suburbs and the areas located near a future station will have a

For example, within a 30 minute radius, accessibility to the service in La Défense will increase by 14%, going from 3.5 to 4 million individuals*. In Châtillon-Montrouge, it will increase by 86% (from 2 to 3.8 million individuals). And finally, the Grésillons in Gennevilliers will see accessibility jump by 149% (from 1.4 to 3.5 million individuals).

These figures only cover the populations and jobs known to date. However, the current demographic and economic dynamism of the suburbs invites us to consider this average outreach as much more significant in the coming years.

In the suburbs, the GPE will provide residents and businesses with much better levels of service, eventually leading to the creation of new centres.

Sources: Colliers International France, Calculator of the Société du Grand Paris, Sirene Database, EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE GPE INSEE

Inner-city Paris Suburbs GPE stations in the suburbs BEFORE BEFORE BEFORE Average time to reach all the 55 - 2% 72 - 8% 63 - 17% areas in the Greater Paris Metropolitan Area (in minutes) 53 66 52 AFTER AFTER AFTER

Average accessibility to jobs BEFORE BEFORE BEFORE 2.7 M AFTER 0.5 M AFTER 1.0 M and inhabitants within 30 2.8 M 0.6 M AFTER minutes of public transport (in 1.7 M millions of jobs + inhabitants) + 3% + 19% + 69%

* Jobs and inhabitants combined 24 25 THE GP EXPRESS

C. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF SUCCESS?

From the point of view of the From an employment perspective TYPE OF GROWTH OF INHABITANTS (FROM 1975 TO 2015) TYPE OF JOB GROWTH (FROM 1975 TO 2015) inhabitant

The great unknown about the Grand Paris On the employment front, the situation is Express lies in its chances of success. There different for two reasons: is a great temptation to compare the future GPE with the RER network, but the purpose First, unlike on the residential front, where for deploying these two systems is entirely urban sprawl has been encouraged over different. the last 40 years, business has instead taken the form of hubs, either intentionally Indeed, the RER project aimed to facilitate or non-intentionally. Indeed, the law or access to Paris’ inner city while offering new local authorities, have often favoured the residential areas for the working population construction of tertiary buildings in the in areas to be developed. Therefore, suburbs by restricting new developments residents mainly went to the communes in the inner city through the authorisation that were closest to the city centre and, system. as urban densification took hold, their distance from the city centre increased. Secondly, the net balance of the growth They therefore based their choice of where of business must be put into perspective to live on the distance to work, making the with the shift towards a service economy. most of the network from the centre to the Many territories are still undergoing outskirts. profound changes in their economic make up, moving from an industrial setting to a Whereas the reasons behind the Grand tertiary setting. Paris Express are different: the system aims to support an ongoing or even already Nevertheless, overall, all territories have established residential dynamic, with the made progress but at different rates. Again, urban area already formed. the GPE has supported these developments, not triggered them, despite...

Therefore, unlike the RER, the GPE project does not prioritise the creation of new areas to live in, but the strengthening of the amenities of areas that are already urbanised; except for the Saclay plateau, where similarities with the RER project can be observed. Stagnation with strong growth Strong growth in the 1980s and Continuous growth with stagnation Slow and continuous decline in the 1990s/2000s and then 1990s, followed by a slow decline since 2010 Continuous decline and stagnation again Growth in the 80s and 90s then Slow and then strong decline and stagnation since the 2000s Strong growth in the 1980s then stagnation stabilisation in the 2010s stagnation Slight decline in the 1980s and Decline then very slight Growth and then decline recovery since the 2000s Decline then continuous growth 1990s, followed by continuous Alternating between periods of since the 1990s growth Alternating periods of slow growth growth and decline Decline and then slow growth since Stagnation with a period of and decline Strong growth in the 1980s and the 2000s growth in the 2000s 1990s, then it began to slow down Strong growth in the 1990s and Alternating periods of slow decline Continuous slow growth or even regress then continuous growth since the and growth Strong growth in the Slow growth with stagnation since 2000s 1980s then it began to slow down the 2000s Strong growth in the 1990s and Stagnation with resurgence in the then slow growth since the 2000s 2000s and then slow decline

26 Source: INSEE 27 THE GP EXPRESS

What are the impacts?

A parallel could be drawn with Tokyo's Yamanote Line, because this • An increased and significant role for the inner city. CURRENT ORGANISATIONAL DIAGRAM OF ACTIVITIES large circular transport line has contributed to the development • Strengthening of the organisational and decision-making role of specialised hubs in Japanese metropolises (Shibuya, Shinjuku, of La Défense. Aéroport Ginza etc.). However, for cultural and historical reasons, concerns • An economic restructuring all around the ring based on CDG over preserving the architectural heritage are different for Japan remarkable assets and the possible emergence of new hubs. and France. • A change in the use of transport modes and a decrease in For France, the immense architectural size will not allow for strong congestion in the inner city. St-Denis Le Bourget urban restructuring (with some exceptions), but rather a re-linking • Combined with a greater increase in the number of of economic functions with the assumption that: inhabitants and companies stationed all around the system. IS Montreuil AR P

La Défense Gare Val-de- Nanterre Châtelet de Lyon Fontenay Yamonote Line in Tokyo Rueil

CBD Noisy Champs BNF

Boulogne Issy Créteil

Home

Aéroport Orly Saclay Massy

FUTURE ORGANISATIONAL DIAGRAM OF ACTIVITIES

Aéroport CDG

Le Bourget IS St-Denis AR P D Research centre N A R Bécon G Grésillons IS University campus AR Montreuil P Tertiary hubs La Défense Gare Val-de- Finance, Banking, Insurance Nanterre Châtelet de Lyon Fontenay etc. Rueil Media, Communication, IT etc. CBD Noisy Champs Telecommunications, BNF business support etc. Administration, media, IT etc. Boulogne Issy Créteil Ardoines Other Châtillon Arceuil Villejuif Bagneux New hub

Prestige dimension

Aéroport Orly Decision-making Saclay Massy Current transport network base Future transport Source: Colliers International France network base ©kurosuke - stock.adobe.com 28 29 THE GP EXPRESS

WHAT TO REMEMBER FROM THIS NEW SYSTEM? It is therefore a great revolution that awaits the region in the upcoming decades. In this context, which sectors will offer the best growth opportunities?

This is what we will determine in the next part of this study through a detailed analysis of the land reserves The suburbs will finally benefit from a means of with the best development prospects. This second transport that is tailored to its growth and challenges. document will determine the real advantages and the best hubs related to the arrival of the GPE and its It will offer a credible tangential transport alternative potential impact on the general organisation of the for pericentral populations, contributing to the fight metropolitan area. against the "all-car" problem.

It will help to relieve congestion on the network by eliminating the need for commuting between home and work in the inner city.

It will considerably reduce space-time, making it possible to access the city’s other key centres easily and quickly.

By connecting residential and economic ecosystems, it will ensure consistency in the Île-de-France urban area.

Through the implementation of new hubs, it will accelerate the restructuring of all or part of this system.

It has a great chance of success because the residential and economic composition has already been established.

It will accelerate the legitimacy, emergence and increasing power of a political entity embodying a greater Paris: the Greater Paris Metropolitan Area. Société du Grand Paris - Nexity Michel Guthman Architect 5+1AA BASE

30 31 AUTHORS

Laurence BOUARD Benjamin CARRIÈRE Head of Research Department Geomatics specialist [email protected] Research Department +33 (0)6 81 56 49 02 [email protected] +33 (0)7 63 52 18 95

41 rue Louise Michel 92594 Levallois-Perret

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