Disasters and Megacities: Critical Geographies of Flood Hazards & Social Inequities in the Case of Metro Manila

Home , Intramuros, Mega Manila, Palau, Typhoon Ketsana, WikiPilipinas

DISASTERS AND MEGACITIES: CRITICAL GEOGRAPHIES OF FLOOD HAZARDS & SOCIAL INEQUITIES IN THE CASE OF METRO MANILA

Doracie B. Zoleta‐Nantes, PhD Research Fellow and Convener of Master of Natural Hazards Resource Management in Asia‐Pacific Program Crawford School, College of Asia and the Pacific The Australian National University This seminar will address the following concerns:

• Are big cities becoming more hazardous?

• How do environmental processes and change influence the geography of risk and vulnerability in megacities?

• How have Metro Manila’s uneven development and formation of ethnic enclaves with different economic opportunities and political capacity contributed to the degradation of its environmental landscapes and marginalization of some cultural groups?

• How have decades of inappropriate planning and poor management of infrastructure development programs in the megacity contributed to the scale of the September 2009 flood disaster that was triggered by Typhoon Ondoy (also known as Tropical Storm Ketsana)?

• What creative approaches and effective solutions can be undertaken to reduce the increasing propensity of Metro Manila to hazardous flooding and mitigate its impacts among the most vulnerable groups?

Urbanisation

• the expansion of urban areas

• increasing concentration of people in urban centers due to natural increase in population and migration of people from rural areas to city centers.

• In 1804, there were about I billion people; only 3% of this total lived in cities

• In 1999, there were about 6 billion people; 47% of the total lived in urban centers

• the world's urban population will double every 38 years.

• By 2030 The UN forecasts that the urban population will rise to nearly 5 billion, or three out of five people will be in cities

• Sources: • http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/popnews/Newsltr_87.pdf • http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpopinfo.php • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Urbanized_population_2006.png Some definitions

• Hazard ‐the intrinsic unavoidable natural occurrence of something that may cause adversities

• Risk ‐ combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences; hazard X elements at risk X vulnerability

• Vulnerability ‐ characteristics and circumstances that make a community, system, or asset susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard

• Disaster ‐ A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society … which exceeds their ability to cope using its own resources

• Mitigation ‐ lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters

Source: • United Nation’s International Disaster Strategy for Disaster Reduction • Urbanization ‐ a mode of human organization that produces new relationships and interfaces between the built and natural environments in population centres The co‐evolution of risk

• Urban systems served as refuge centres for and urbanisation people affected by disasters in rural areas before

• As cities expand, more raw materials are drawn from the surrounding hinterlands

• Raw materials are turned into products (goods and services, social and biological reproduction, power) and waste (Pelling 2003).

• The concentration of waste products and congestion of human population contribute to environmental degradation and increasing susceptibility of places and people to environmental risks

• The construction of a ‘second nature’ ‐ where human intervention had Environmental risks in created an increasingly modified urban areas natural world leaving few if any elements of it in pristine state (Smith 1984) ‐ increases environmental risks.

• Environmental risks – consist of catastrophic shocks (flooding, cyclones, earthquakes, etc) and chronic events (everyday hazards such as poor sanitation, unsafe shelter, polluted air)

• Catastrophic shocks –more visible; studied by disaster specialists

• Chronic events – common place but less visible; less newsworthy; analysed by engineers, social workers, land‐use planners, etc.

• Daily exposure to chronic risks reduces people’s willingness to Catastrophes and prepare for the possibility of catastrophic disaster chronic hazards

• Catastrophic shocks lower community and household resilience to chronic risks and other hazard events.

• Greater losses that follow are from health risks due to lack of clean drinking water, food, sanitation, shelter and social order

• Continued exposure to environmental risks reduces one’s resources and capability to recover from future shocks and stresses

• The rachet effect of vulnerability (Chambers 1999) increases as urban centres magnify in size.

Megacities and disasters

• A megacity is a large population center consisting of a metropolitan area, or a conurbation of two metropolitan areas and its adjacent zone of influence

• It has a population in excess of 8 million (Nichols, 1995) to 10 million (Hardoy, Mitlin and Satterthwaite, 1992).

• It is synonymous with the term megalopolis

• At the start of the 21st century, there were 18 megacities

• Megacities increasingly become the locus of risks (Mitchell 1999)

• Occurrence of catastrophic and chronic risks become a predominant feature of megacities

• Growth in urban disaster is due to the rapid spatial expansion of cities and increase in the proportion of Why do national population residing in urban areas at risk residents of from many types of disasters (Pelling 2003) megacities seem

• In 2000, more than 50% of the world population to have an reside in urban areas increasing

propensity to • In the next two decades, 90% of population growth in developing countries will take place in urban suffer more from settlements (Clark 2000, Hilderbrand, 2001) environmental

risks? • Increased population pressure, due to natural increase and migration, is linked causally to environmental degradation; this contributes to an increase in environmental risks

• The urban poor mostly originate from rural areas who lack familiarity to the hazardousness of the new settlement sites, access to safe housing, full source of employment, social capital and social network

• Human society overly utilizes the natural environment In urban development Why do megacities

• Increased concentration of infrastructures, have an increasing energy and resources makes megacities more vulnerable to catastrophic shocks propensity to environmental risks? • The fragmentation of localized disaster experiences due to its areal extent contributes to lack of hazard data bases among populations at risk

Mitigation of disasters at the local scale leads to the diversion of the problem to adjoining places

Urban poor have limited access to subsistence food production

Rapid colonization of different marginal areas by migrants make the production of urban risk maps and planning of urban infrastructures more difficult

Corruption in governance can be a pressing issue Table 1: Major cities at risk from disasters

City or conurbation Population 1990 (millions) Population 2015 (millions) Major environmental risks Mexico City 15.1 19.2 Earthquake, pollution, subsidence, drought Tokyo‐Yokohama 15.3 26.4 Earthquake Los Angeles 15.3 14.1 Earthquake, pollution Buenos Aires 11.4 14.1 Flood Calcutta 11.0 17.3 Cyclone, flood, human waste Sao Paulo 9.8 20.4 Flood, pollution Jakarta 9.1 17.3 Earthquake, volcano, salination of aquifer, human waste, flood

Manila 8.5 14.8 Flood, typhoon Delhi 8.4 16.8 Flood, human waste Shanghai* 8.2 14.6 Flood, typhoon Beijing 7.3 12.3 Earthquake Cairo* 6.8 13.8 Flood, earthquake Rio de Janeiro 5.6 11.9 Landslide, flood Dhaka* 3.4 21.1 Flood, cyclone, human waste

*At risk from sea-level rise Sources: Blaikie et al (1994), United Nationas Social Statistics Office un.org/Depts/unsd/social/main.htmal, UNDP World Population Prospects: The 1999 Revision, Kreimer and Munash=inghe (1992) The case of Metro Manila, the Philippines • Uneven regional development

• Formation of ethnic enclaves

• Degradation of environmental landscapes

• Marginalisation of cultural groups

• Increasing propensity to flood hazards

Colonial vestiges of Metro Manila’s urbanization

• The Spanish colonials, in built the fort city of Intramuros ‐ “inside the walls” – and made it the seat of the colonial government in 1571

• Manila became the hub for port, railway and road networks and was incorporated into the global economy

The United States of America invaded Manila in 1898 http://www.aenet.org/manila-expo/page12.htm

It bought the Philippines from Spain for 20 million US dollars under the Treaty of Paris

• Manila was made the seat of colonial government

• The Americans housed its imperialist government in Manila and integrated it The Treaty of Paris, signed on 3 September 1783, ratified by the the Congress of further into the global economy. the Confederation on 14 January 1784 and by the King of Great Britain on 9 April 1784 (the ratification documents were exchanged in Paris on 12 May 1784), formally ended the American Revolutionary War between the Kingdom of Great Britain and the United States of America which had rebelled against British rule. • On May 29, 1976 (through PD 940), Metro Manila became the Philippines’ National Capital Region.

• An urban conurbation in Asia.

• 16 autonomous cities and one municipality.

• Land area of 63, 600 hectares is densely settled

• Depends on resources coming from nearby spaces and all other places for its daily operations and existence

Metro Manila is the economic and cultural centre of the Philippines

http://en.wikipilipinas.org/index.php?title=Metro_Manila

http://en.wikipe dia.org/wiki/Fil e:SM_Mall_of_ Asia_wide_pan .jpg The Philippines 70% of poor Filipinos live in the rural areas

The region with the highest percentage of poor families are:

ARMM (67.3 per cent); Bicol (61 per cent); and Central Mindanao (56.1 per cent.

Four ARMM provinces are among the top ten poorest provinces in the country (FIES 2000).

The average family income among urban residents is PHP 204,977 (AUD 4960.44) while it is PHP 85,373 (AUD 2066.03) among rural residents. Photographs of the Philippine The Philippines Department of Agriculture

35.79 million persons are in the labor force; 35.8% is employed in agriculture in 2004; 46 % in 1990. A typical farming system consists of a • Philippine Agriculture major crop and a few livestock such as contributes 18.7% of the pigs and poultry, with rice, corn and total GDP in 2006. coconut as composite crops.

• Top export products are A good mixture of small, medium and large coconut oil (Netherlands farms, owned and managed by single and USA), banana families. (Japan), and pineapple (USA). From about 3.6 hectares in the 1960s and 1970s, the average farm size declined to 2.8 hectares in the 1990s (Ravago and Cruz 2004) • From 1993 to 2003, the growth in agriculture averages at 1.1 %.

– The Department of Agriculture was optimistic in its projection in 2006 that by 2007 the growth rate will be 4.5 %.

– It was not realized.

• The slow growth pace is due to the The Filipino farmers in the Cordillera following reasons: Autonomous Region, Eastern Visayas, and Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, were not given much development assistance by the – slow rate of use intensification and government. expansion in areas under cultivation; – high costs of doing business in the Many agricultural policies do not address the countryside due to poor infrastructure, farmers’ needs. – lack of research and development initiatives, Thousands of people living in rural areas migrate – to Metro Manila due to: Lack of support on land distribution and lack of job opportunities in the countryside. increased agricultural production the construction boom and establishment – lack of extension, information and of export processing zones in the megacity education, and Its infrastructures and transport systems, – poor governance. and Natural calamities such as drought and typhoons in rural areas. There is a big difference in the conditions in Metro Manila and other places in the Philippine countryside.

The overconcentration of development infrastructure, utilities and services in the business districts of Metro Manila is matched by a scarcity of sufficient transport systems and development infrastructures in rural Philippines.

Economic primacy Rate of urbanization in the Philippines was: 30 % in 1960; 54% in 1995; and 61 % by 2010.

Over 12 million residents; 14 % of the country’s total population.

In 2007, it generated 33 % of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – PhP 2.479 billion or AUD 59.99 million.

Industrial and manufacturing activities are concentrated in the NCR The Rise in Population and Competition Over Marginal Living Spaces

• The National Statistical Coordinating Board of the National Statistics Office (NSCB‐NSO, 2008) posted that the Philippine population was growing at an annual rate of 2.36 %.

• In 1903, the NCR’s population comprised 4 % of the country’s population (328,939 out of 7.6 million).

• As of 2007, Metro Manila’s 11.55 million residents comprised 13 % of the 88.5 million Filipinos

• As of 2010, the estimate is Metro Manila has over 14 million people

• Metro Manila covers only 0.21 % of the country’s total land area of 300, 000 square kilometers.

Table 2: Percentage share of the National Capital Region on the total population of the Philippines from 1903‐ 2007. Source: National Statistical Coordination Board, National Statistics Office, 2008.

Year Philippines NCR Percentage

1903 7,635,426 328,939 4.31 1918 10,314,310 461,166 4.47 1939 16,000,303 993,889 6.21 1948 19,234,182 1,569,128 8.16 1960 27,087,685 2,462,488 9.09 1970 36,684,486 3,966,695 10.81 1975 42,070,660 4,970,006 11.81 1980 48,098,460 5,925,884 12.32 1990 60,703,206 7,948,392 13.09 1995 68,615,706 9,454,040 13.78 2000 76,504,077 9,932,560 12.98 2007 88,574,614 11,553,427 13.04 Table 3: Land area and total population of the 17 local government units (LGU) of Metro Manila, 2007. Source: National Statistical Coordination Board, National Statistics Office, 2008.

NCR cities Land area Population Population density Year the LGU (sq km) became a city National Capital 636.00 11,553,427 18,166 Region City of Manila 38.30 1,660,714 43,361 1572 City of 26.00 305,576 11,753 1994 Mandaluyong City of Marikina 38.90 426,610 10,967 1996 City of Pasig 13.00 617,301 47,485 1997 City of Quezon 166.20 2,679,450 16,122 1939 City of San Juan 5.94 125,338 21,101 2007 City of Calookan 53.33 1,378,856 25,855 1962 City of Malabon 23.04 363,681 15,785 2001 City of Navotas 10.77 245,344 22,780 2007 City of Valenzuela 47.00 568,928 12,104 1998 City of Las Piñas 41.50 532,330 12,827 1997 City of Makati 27.36 510,383 18,564 1995 City of Muntinlupa 46.70 452,943 9,698 1995 City of Parañaque 38.30 552,660 14,430 1998 City of Pasay 13.90 403,064 28,997 1947 City of Taguig 33.70 613,343 18,200 2004 Pateros 2.10 61,940 29,495 Not a city Many migrants to Metro Manila are either, under‐employed, unemployed, or underpaid and thus, unable to get decent homes.

38 % of the country’s poor live in urban areas

22% of the urban population is poor

9.57 million urban dwellers were below the poverty level

• They compete for minute living spaces in the metropolis, with appalling conditions, vulnerable to health, social and environmental risks.

• Millions reside in spaces without sewerage facilities, such as in shanties built on pavements of side streets, open areas beside railways, and covered spaces under concrete bridges.

• 3.56 million urban dwellers lack sanitation coverage

• Source: USAUD Table 4: Annual Per Capita Poverty Thresholds, Minimum living wage and family living wage in the Philippines, the ARMM and the NCR, 2007 and 2008

All areas Urban Rural

Philippines PHP 14,866 PHP 16,936 PHP 14,103 1 PHP = 0.0242 AUD AUD 359.757 AUD 409.85 AUD 341.292

Metro Manila PHP 19,345 PHP 19,345 Min wage: PHP 382.00 AUD 468.149 AUD 425.59 (Jan 4 2008) AUD 9.24 Family Living wage (5 members): PHP 917 AUD 22.19

Autonomous Region of PHP 14,845 PHP 16,436 PHP 14,410 Muslim Mindanao AUD 359.249 AUD 361.59 AUD 348.72 Min wage: PHP 200 AUD 4.84

Sources: www.nscb.gov.ph; http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/rtwpb.html; Ibon Foundation Chronic environmental problem:

• In 2010, there are over 12 million people in Metro Manila

• A person generates 0.419 kg. of garbage a day

• 5.03 million kilograms of solid and organic wastes – daily generation of rubbish

• Only 75 % of the solid waste that is generated is collected daily

• The remaining 1, 260 tons of uncollected solid waste is left to rot on vacant corners or storm drains and other waterways.

Metro Manila has five major rivers :

– the rivers of Pasig, Marikina, Paranaque‐ Zapote, Malabon‐Tullahan‐Tenejeros River and San Juan.

It has two minor waterways – – the rivers of Pateros‐Taguig and the Napindan.

All seven rivers flow towards Manila Bay.

Lack of environmental pollution control and abatement systems on waste disposal among industries and households has transformed the river systems into sewage and industrial effluent storage areas.

• A recent trend is the mushrooming of houses on stilts in the mouths of river systems and along shallow waterways.

• These squatter colonies are highly‐prone to fire, flood and health hazards.

• These derelict urban landscapes are not likely to disappear in the near future.

Spatial concentration of wealth and socio‐political Another trend in Metro Manila is the increasing exclusivity of affluent enclaves. privileges: The Makati Central The Chinese Filipinos’ success in trading and Business District and Manila manufacturing had some roots in the mid-16th Chinatown century Philippines http://www.chinatownology.com/chinatown_manil a.html

They enjoyed the support of the Spaniards in undertaking their trading activities. Manila Chinatown is a culturally distinct enclave.

It has established relations with financial centers in Southeast and East Asia and in the western and eastern coasts of the United States of America, Canada and Australia.

Chinese Filipino residents assert their rights for political representation in these spaces.

They control the political machineries that decide on the provision of infrastructures to support the competitiveness of their financial and cultural enclaves. Makati : the country’s Central Business District (CBD).

It occupies only 15 % of the total land area of Makati City.

It has 3 million SQM of prime office spaces which house half of the nation’s international and domestic commercial activities.

Income from licensing business activities and payment of real property taxes in the Makati CBD make up the fiscal revenue of Makati City.

It was PhP 6.6 billion pesos (159.7 million AUD) in 2003.

It houses the national headquarters or offices of 40% of the top 1,000 corporations in the Philippines

The city revenues are spent to further improve its world‐class physical infrastructures and communication, transport and other services and utilities.

• Adjacent to the Makati CBD are the wealthiest neighborhoods in the country where access is restricted by providers of security services.

• They have considerable control over financial resources allocation of the country.

• To support their interests, they wield the decision‐making in economic and political machineries of the nation.

• They can improve the physical, cultural, social, economic, and political infrastructures in their living spaces with the use of government or their own personal resources.

• The experiences of wealthy neighborhoods adjoining financial districts are the opposite of those in economically‐deprived spaces, such as the Muslim Filipino enclaves.

Historical conflicts and Socio‐economic Circumstances in Muslim Filipino Enclaves: A case of group marginalization

• The district of Quiapo, Manila, has been the home of the Muslims even before Spanish colonization

• The Muslim Filipino enclave in Quiapo expands steadily.

• Salah Jubair(1999) and Abraham Sakili (2003) chronicled that the struggle of the Muslim Filipinos for self‐ determination started in 1565.

• The violence in Mindanao exacerbated at the end of the 20th century.

• This was due to the entry of multi‐ national corporations (MNCs) that benefited from the privatization, liberalization and industrialization programs of the government.

• The land grabbing of their ancestral domain systematically displaced the Muslim Filipinos of the ARMM.

• The Muslim people comprised more than three‐ fourths of the Mindanao population at the time of the 1903 census (250,000 out of 327,741).

• In 1990 the Muslims only accounted for less than one‐fifth of the Mindanao population (2,690,456 out of 14,269,736)

http://morolaw.blogspot.com/

Thousands of displaced Filipino Muslims live a miserable life in shelter camps over the fighting between government troops and MILF. (Google) http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=12521881 96266&pagename=Zone-English-News/NWELayout#ixzz0hUBiaaf8 Table 5: Estimated Moro and non‐Moro population in Mindanao 1903‐1990 (Selected years) Source: Jubair, Salah. Bangsamoro: A Nation Under Endless Tyranny. 1999

Year Moro population Non-Moro Total Mindanao % share of Moro % share of non- population Population population Moro population 1903 250,000 77,741 327,741 76.28 23.72

1913 324,816 193,882 518,698 62.62 37.38

1918 358,968 364,687 723,655 49.60 50.40

1939 755,189 1,489,232 2,244,421 33.65 66.35

1948 933,101 2,010,223 2,943,324 31.70 68.30

1960 1,321,060 4,364,967 5,686,027 23.23 76.77

1970 1,669,708 6,294,224 7,963,932 20.97 79.03

1975 1,798,991 7,348,084 9,147,075 19.67 80.33

1980 2,504,332 8,400,911 10,905,243 22.96 77.04

1990 2,690,456 11,579,280 14,269,736 18.85 81.15 • Due to the war and widespread underdevelopment in Mindanao due to the systematic neglect of Mindanao by the central government, thousands of Muslim Filipinos migrated to other parts http://news.bbc.c of the Philippines. o.uk/2/hi/asia- pacific/7096069. stm • About 120,000 Muslim Filipinos migrated to Metro Manila

• Muslim Filipino enclaves were established in the cities of Quezon, Pasay and Taguig.

• Muslim Filipinos have judged that the National Capital Region is a safer place to live.

• Health facilities and educational opportunities in Metro Manila are 100X better and more accessible.

• http://www.collecti Muslim Filipino children are not velens.com/photo exposed to injuries and deaths s/photo_12013516 due to perennial exchanges of gun 79_b.jpg fires in the NCR

• Those with political connections and financial resources integrated in the wealthy enclaves of the metropolis.

• Thousands end up in marginal urban enclaves in Baseco Tondo, San Andres Bukid, Dakota, and in certain areas in Las Piñas.

• These urban enclaves are run‐down neighborhoods, which like other places are increasingly more prone to flood hazards.

Sitio Baseco, Tondo

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2611/3738095867_81ec1e7611.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6f/Tropical_cyclones_1945_2006_wikicolor.png

The PHILIPPINES is a hazard- and disaster-prone country. In 2001, 317 disasters devastated the country.

Destruction to properties - PhP 9.223 billion pesos AUD 242.105 million

Typhoon occurrences – average of 19 typhoons a year; 40% or 8 typhoons directly hit the northern Philippines; 6 of which are very destructive Most of Metro Manila lies on semi‐alluvial fans that were formed by the deposition of sediments on the eastern shore of Manila Bay by the Malabon‐Tullahan river systems in the north, the Marikina‐Pasig river systems in the east and by the Paranaque, Las Pinas and other rivers in the south.

Thus, many parts of the metropolis are on low‐lying deltaic plains. Metro Manila’s flood hazards and disasters

• Flood hazards are increasing in major urban areas due to:

– rapid rate of urbanization and

– lack of urban planning and

disaster

mitigation

http://www.selaplana.com/2009/09/26/typhoon-ondoy-floods-manila/ activities.

Chronic risks: Only 10 % of the drainage facilities in Metro Manila is dredged, de‐

clogged or maintained each year (14 meters a day).

Most drainage canals are inaccessible due to the encroachment of squatter communities on waterways’ service roads.

Indiscriminate waste disposal seriously clogs the storm drainage canals and waterways. Rapid expansion of built-up areas in formerly marsh lands

Increasing number of reclamation areas

Deforestation and other land use changes in NCR’s watershed areas

Increased surface runoff and erosion of topsoil in devegetated watershed areas

Sedimentation and siltation of major river systems

Land subsidence due to groundwater extraction

Changes in groundwater hydrology Intensification of weather events, such as tropical storms due to the changing climate patterns

• Deterioration and poor maintenance of flood infrastructure

• System failures of flood control due to garbage and other debris

• Lack of funding to maintain flood control system

• Lack of disaster mitigation programs at the local, regional and national scales

Effective Flood Control Operations System (for Metro-Manila & Rizal province) was discontinued after it was turned over to MMDA Flooded areas in Metro Manila from the 1950s to the 1990s Source: (Zoleta‐Nantes, 2000)

1950s 1960s 1970s

Due to the earlier cited reasons, the areas that are affected by floods in Metro Manila continue to increase.

1990s 1980s According to the Japan Meteorological Agency a Typhoon Ondoy (Tropical tropical depression had formed on Storm Ketsana) September 23, 2009 at about 860 km to the northwest of Palau (ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/ Tokyo/2009092300.RJTD )

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) monitored the tropical depression, named it Ondoy, and classified it as a tropical storm on September 25, 2010.

Ondoy is the 15th tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in 2009.

Japan named it Ketsana and assigned the international code number 0916 on September 26, 2009.

Ketsana/Ondoy made a landfall before noon of

September 26, 2009 in the boundary of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Ketsana_(2009) Aurora and Quezon

Ondoy had moderate winds (maximum winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 100 kph)

The rainfall that was brought about by 12 highest 6-hour Ondoy, according to the September 2010 maximum rainfall records of the Philippine Atmospheric, totals (in mm) Geophysical and Astronomical Services recorded at the PAGASA Science Administration (PAGASA) was the highest Garden from 1965- recorded since the 1960s. 2005 historical data (ranked from highest to lowest): • Progression of rainfall depth: (recorded by PAGASA from 8 AM 1976 294.5 1992 242.5 of September 26, 2009) 1967 239.7 2000 215.5 1970 197.7 • 8 AM to 2 PM (6‐hour duration): 1979 179.3 347.5 mm 1986 176.1 • 8 AM to 5 PM (9‐hour duration): 1972 158.5 1974 149.4 413.0 mm 1990 143.8 • 8 AM to 8 PM (12‐hour duration): 1973 131.3 1966 125.1 448.5 mm Source: PAGASA • The rainfall depth of 448.5 mm in 12 hours has an associated recurrence interval or return period of 100 years based on the rainfall‐duration‐frequency curve that was published by PAGASA is shown below: (Source: PAGASA and Guillermo Tabios III, UP‐NHRC)

• At 2:00 PM on September 26, 2009, Ondoy/Ketsana reached Metro Manila and caused widespread flooding in the whole metropolis (80%), most especialy into the following cities:

– Antipolo, Makati, Malabon, Manila, Marikina, Pasay, Pasig, Quezon, San Juan, Taguig and Valenzuela were heavily flooded and soaked with mud.

• Flood depths ranged from 2 feet to 6 feet, while on the shores of Laguna Lake, the floods almost reached 20 feet.

• Major roads in Metro Manila, particularly EDSA, C5, Espana, Aurora and 32 other road sections were flooded (http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173229/metro‐manila‐25‐provinces‐placed‐under‐state‐of‐ calamity).

Residents swim towards high ground during flooding caused by Typhoon Ketsana in Cainta Rizal, east of Manila September 27, 2009. (REUTERS/Erik de Castro)

http://www.boston.co m/bigpicture/2009/09/t yphoon_ketsana_ond oy.html?p1=Well_Mos tPop_Emailed7 Schools were closed; 280,000 people were displaced; 464 people were reported dead; thousands were injured

International and domestic flights were cancelled for a day.

Power supply, communication lines and water supply were lost.

Metro Manila residents were warned of apossible outbreak of leptospirosis.

The total damage as of September 28, 2009 was AUD $ 108.7 million.

There were major disruptions in transportation and other community services and utilities.

Residents wait for rescuers at a building during flooding caused by Typhoon Ketsana in Cainta Rizal, east of Manila September 27, 2009. (REUTERS/Erik de Castro)

http://www.boston.com/ bigpicture/2009/09/typh oon_ketsana_ondoy.ht ml?p1=Well_MostPop_ Emailed7 Computation of flood discharge at the Marikina

River in Sto. Nino, due to

the rains that were

brought about by Ondoy*

*Source: PAGASA

SWATCH Model computed Peak Flood Discharge = 5770 cu.m./s of Marikina River at Sto Niño on 26 September 2009, based on the Point Hourly Rainfall at Science Garden, QC Synoptic Station with applied area reduction factor = 0.6

Source: PAGASA Source: Guillermo Tabios III, UP-NHRC • The cities of Marikina and Pasig and Cainta , Rizal were the most affected in Metro Manila.

• Floods in some parts of these places were observed to be about 5‐8 meters in depth.

• The floodwaters which carried mud, garbage, and all sorts of debris were mixed with bunker oil which spilled from the Noah’s Paper Mill in Marikina City.

• These places are where most of the wealthy and middle class residential subdivisions (33) are located.

Residents stand on electric wires to stay on high ground while others wade in neck- deep flood waters caused by Typhoon Ketsana in Cainta Rizal, east of Manila September 27, 2009. (REUTERS/Erik de Castro) #

http://www.boston.co m/bigpicture/2009/09/ typhoon_ketsana_on doy.html?p1=Well_M ostPop_Emailed7 Flooded areas in Marikina Valley – 9/2009 Typhoon Ondoy (Ketsana)

• They recorded the highest number of deaths as compared to other cities and municipalities in Metro Manila.

• These places used to be rice lands and swamplands in the 1960s and 1970s, which were widely developed into residential subdivisions.

• These residential subdivisions were surrounded by walls and dikes but they broke down during the flooding events.

An aerial picture shows houses destroyed by flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in Marikina City, east of the Philippine capital Manila on September 27, 2009. (NOEL CELIS/AFP/Getty Images)

http://www.boston.com/bigp icture/2009/09/typhoon_ket sana_ondoy.html?p1=Well_ MostPop_Emailed7 Mega Manila will contain nearly half of the country’s population. What lies ahead? • The concentration of infrastructure, energy, utilities, economic opportunities, information and people in the metropolis will greatly contribute to the rate of urbanization and spatial extent of Metro Manila.

• This will lead to the formation of “Mega Manila”

– an area that will incorporate the adjacent towns http://en.wikipilipinas.org/index.php and cities in the Central Luzon Region (provinces of Bulacan, Nueva Ecija and Pampanga) in the northern part of the metropolis,

– and the CALABARZON (provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon) and MIMAROPA (provinces of Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Palawan) regions in the southern portion of Metro Manila. http://en.wikipilipinas.org/index.php?title=Mega_Manila

This has implications on how the megalopolis will deal with many environmental challenges such as the ones highlighted by Ondoy/Ketsana.

• The formation of Mega Manila has to take into account Metro Manila’s present‐day realities.

• Further urbanization of Metro Manila does not mean development for the Philippines.

• If all the ecological ills and uneven spatial transformations that urbanization bring continue to manifest, the negative impacts on diverse human groups will persist.

• The need to deal with a comprehensive set of programs which will address uneven spatial and social development and land‐use and environmental planning concerns is salient.

• If Metro Manila gets more urbanized and leads to the formation of Mega Manila, the implications for the future are both promising and grim.

• There is a need for:

• More spatially and socially equitable resource allocation and regional development

• More initiatives to address the ecological ills and environmental consequences of unplanned urbanization

• More resources and attention for incorporating disaster reduction programs in development strategies and economic development What needs to • Managing the conditions of urban spaces in relation to adjoining non‐urban spaces from where resources be done? emanate

• Comprehensive land use planning that takes into account the hazardousness of places and vulnerability of communities into development goals.