United States Government Accountability Office Report to the Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate June 2020 COMPACTS OF FREE ASSOCIATION Populations in U.S. Areas Have Grown, with Varying Reported Effects GAO-20-491 June 2020 COMPACTS OF FREE ASSOCIATION Populations in U.S. Areas Have Grown, with Varying Reported Effects Highlights of GAO-20-491, a report to the Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found The U.S. compacts of free association More than 94,000 compact migrants—that is, citizens of the Federated States of permit eligible citizens from the freely Micronesia (Micronesia), the Republic of the Marshall Islands (Marshall Islands), associated states (FAS), including and the Republic of Palau (Palau) as well as their U.S.-born children and Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and grandchildren younger than 18 years—live and work in the United States and its Palau, to migrate to the United States territories, according to Census Bureau data. Data from Census Bureau surveys and its territories without visa and covering the periods 2005-2009 and 2013-2017 and an enumeration in 2018 labor certification requirements. In show that the combined compact migrant populations in U.S. areas grew by an fiscal year 2004, Congress authorized estimated 68 percent, from about 56,000 to about 94,000. Historically, many and appropriated $30 million annually compact migrants have lived in Hawaii, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the for 20 years to help defray costs Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). From 2013 to 2018, an estimated 50 percent associated with compact migration in affected jurisdictions, particularly of compact migrants lived on the U.S. mainland. Hawaii, Guam, and the CNMI. This funding ends in 2023, though Estimated Compact Migrant Populations in Selected U.S. Areas, 2013-2018 migration to U.S. areas is permitted to continue and is expected to grow. GAO was asked to review topics related to compact migration. This report describes (1) estimated compact migrant populations and recent trends in compact migration; (2) reported costs related to compact migration in Hawaii, Guam, and the CNMI; and (3) effects of compact migration on governments, workforces, and societies in these and other U.S. areas. GAO reviewed Census Bureau data to determine the Hawaii, Guam, and the CNMI track and report the financial costs related to numbers of compact migrants in U.S. areas. In addition, GAO interviewed compact migration, or compact impact, for their state or territory. These areas federal, state, and territory reported estimated costs totaling $3.2 billion during the period fiscal years 2004 government officials; representatives through 2018. In fiscal years 2004 through 2019, Hawaii, Guam, and the CNMI of private sector and nonprofit groups received a combined total of approximately $509 million in federal grants to help employing or serving compact defray the costs of providing services to compact migrants. migrants; FAS embassy and consular In the U.S. areas GAO visited—Arkansas, the CNMI, Guam, Hawaii, Oregon, officials; and members of compact and Washington—state and territorial officials identified effects of providing public migrant communities. education and health care services to compact migrants. Some area In commenting on a draft of this governments use a combination of federal and state or territorial funds to extend report, U.S. area governments and health care coverage to compact migrants. For example, some states help FAS Ambassadors to the United compact migrants pay for coverage through health insurance exchanges, created States identified areas for additional under the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, by covering the cost study related to compact migration of premiums not covered by advanced premium tax credits available to eligible and impact. Some also discussed compact migrants. Effects of compact migration in these U.S. areas also include policy considerations, including compact migrants’ budgetary contributions through payment of taxes and fees as restoration of Medicaid benefits to well as their workforce contributions—for example, through jobs in hotels, compact migrants. manufacturing, the U.S. military, poultry processing, caregiving, and government. View GAO-20-491. For more information, contact David Gootnick at (202) 512-3149 or [email protected]. United States Government Accountability Office Contents Letter 1 Background 3 Compact Migrant Population Has Grown, with About Half Residing on U.S. Mainland 13 Hawaii, Guam, and the CNMI Have Reported Compact Impact Costs and Received Annual Grants to Defray Them 21 Compact Migration Affects Government Programs, Workforces, and Societies 30 Agency Comments, Third-Party Views, and Our Evaluation 47 Comments from U.S. Areas 47 Comments from Freely Associated States 50 Appendix I Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 53 Appendix II Estimates of Compact Migrants in U.S. Areas 58 Appendix III Federal Travel Data Showing Compact Migration to U.S. Areas 65 Appendix IV Demographics and Characteristics of Compact Migrants in the 50 U.S. States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico 67 Appendix V Compact Impact Costs Reported by Hawaii, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands 74 Appendix VI Compact Migrant Enumeration Methods, Definitions, and Error 76 Appendix VII Stakeholder Suggestions to Address Challenges Related to Compact Migration 82 Page i GAO-20-491 Compacts of Free Association Appendix VIII Nonprofit and Private Sector Organizations Supporting Compact Migrants 89 Appendix IX Review of Academic Studies of the Workforce Effects of Migration Similar to Compact Migration 94 Appendix X Compact Migrant Eligibility for, and Access to, REAL ID–Compliant Identification 98 Appendix XI Comments from the Government of Hawaii 101 Appendix XII Comments from the Government of Guam 102 Appendix XIII Comments from the Government of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands 105 Appendix XIV Comments from the Government of Arkansas 107 Appendix XV Comments from the Government of Oregon 111 Appendix XVI Comments from the Government of Washington 117 Appendix XVII Comments from the Government of the Federated States of Micronesia 122 Page ii GAO-20-491 Compacts of Free Association Appendix XVIII Comments from the Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands 136 Appendix XIX Comments from the Government of the Republic of Palau 140 Appendix XX GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgements 144 Tables Table 1: Compact Migrant Eligibility for Selected U.S. Federal Programs as of November 2019 12 Table 2: Estimated Compact Impact Costs Reported by Hawaii, Guam, and the CNMI, by Sector, Fiscal Year 2017 23 Table 3: Compact Impact Grant Funding to Hawaii, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Fiscal Years 2004-2019 25 Table 4: Total Underpayment and Overpayment of Compact Impact Grant Funding to Affected Jurisdictions Resulting from Enumeration Error, Fiscal Years 2015-2020 28 Table 5: Original and Corrected Allocations of Compact Impact Grant Funding and Proposed Grant Amounts for Affected Jurisdictions for Fiscal Years 2021-2023 30 Table 6: Estimated Number of Compact Migrant Students in State and Territorial Public Schools in Selected U.S. Areas 31 Table 7: Examples of Industries Employing Compact Migrants in Selected U.S. Areas 41 Table 8: U.S. Areas and FAS Communities Where We Interviewed Compact Migrants 56 Table 9: Estimated Compact Migrant Populations in Selected U.S. Areas and Percentage Changes in Populations from 2005-2009 to 2013-2018 58 Table 10: Estimated Compact Migrant Populations, by U.S. Area of Residence, 2013-2017 60 Table 11: Estimated Compact Migrant Populations, by U.S. Area of Residence and Freely Associated State (FAS) Birthplace, 2013-2017 62 Page iii GAO-20-491 Compacts of Free Association Table 12: Demographic Estimates of the Compact Migrant Populations in the 50 U.S. States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, 2013-2017 67 Table 13: Demographic Estimates of Compact Migrants in Hawaii, 2013-2017 70 Table 14: Estimated Compact Impact Costs Reported by Hawaii, Guam, and the CNMI, 1986-2018 74 Table 15: Census Bureau Methods Used to Enumerate Compact Migrants in Affected Jurisdictions, 1993-2018 77 Table 16: Definitions of “Compact Migrant” Used in Census Bureau Enumerations, 1993-2018 79 Table 17: Original and Corrected Enumeration Counts, 2013 and 2018 81 Figures Figure 1: Locations of the Freely Associated States and Affected Jurisdictions 10 Figure 2: Compact Migrant Populations in U.S. Areas, 2013-2018 16 Figure 3: Estimated Compact Impact Costs Reported by Hawaii, Guam, and the CNMI, Fiscal Years 2004-2018 22 Figure 4: Guam Schools Built through Leaseback Program Funded by Compact Impact Grants 27 Figure 5: States and Territories That Had Extended Coverage to Lawfully Residing Children or Pregnant Women under the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 as of February 2020 33 Figure 6: Washington State Health Care Authority Advertisement with Information in English and Six Other Languages Spoken by Compact Migrants 36 Figure 7: Federally Qualified Health Center Offering Services to Compact Migrants in Honolulu, Hawaii 38 Figure 8: Cumulative Monthly Net Migration of Migrants from the Freely Associated States to U.S. Areas, 2017-2019 66 Figure 9: Estimates of Compact Migrant Populations in Hawaii, Guam, and the CNMI, 1993-2018 80 Figure 10: We Are Oceania One-Stop