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† Corresponding author: [email protected] Department of International Development, 3 Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3TB, United Kingdom. Adeel Malik is the Globe fellow in the economies of Muslim societies at the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies, fellow of St. Peter’s College, Oxford, and a lecturer in development economics at the University of Oxford. Bassem Awadallah is the Secretary General of the Islamic Chamber of Commerce and Industry and a former Finance and Planning Minister and Chief of Royal Court of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
Centre for the Study of African Economies 1 Department of Economics . University of Oxford . Manor Road Building . Oxford OX1 3UQ T: +44 (0)1865 271084 . F: +44 (0)1865 281447 . E: [email protected] . W: www.csae.ox.ac.uk
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Also see: James Robinson, 2010, “Elites and institutional Persistence”, WIDER Working Paper 2010/85, Helsinki. 3 Al Manar, 2010, Employment and Unemployment Survey: Number of Employed Jordanians 2000 09. Amman, Jordan. 4Francisco R. Rodriguez and E. Samman, 2010, “The North African Miracle”, http://hdr.undp.org/en/humandev/lets talk hd/2010 11b/ (Also, see, the Human Development Report 2010, Oxford University Press). 5 Tarek M. Yousef, 2004, “Development, growth and policy reform in the Middle East and North Africa since 1950”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 91 116. 6 The World Bank, 2004, “Unlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and North Africa: Toward a New Social Contract”, Washington, D.C. 7 A. Kapiszewski, 2006, “Arab Versus Asian Migrant Workers in the GCC Countries”, UN/POP/EGM/2006/02. 8 Sahar Taghdisi Rad, 2011, “Jordan’s paradox of growth without employment”, Development Viewpoint 65, SOAS, University of London. 9 The World Bank, 2005, World Development Report: A Better Investment Climate For Everyone, New York: Oxford University Press. 10 United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2009, Industrial Development Report 2009, Vienna. 11 World Development Indicators (available at: http://data.worldbank.org/data catalog). 12 The importance of Suez Canal can be gauged from the fact that around 8 percent of the global sea borne trade passes through it. It generated US$ 4.8 billion in revenues in 2010 alone. 13 World Development Indicators (available at: http://data.worldbank.org/data catalog). 14 Jane Harrigan, 2011, “The political economy of aid flows to North Africa”, WIDER Working Paper 2011/72, World Institute of Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland. 15 The World Bank, 2011, World Development Indicators 2011, Washington D.C. 16 There may also be a feedback from the state’s redistributive system to demographics, as generous state provision may act as an incentive for a larger family size. 17 The region imports 50 percent of its food calorie consumption. 18 Annia Ciezadlo, 2011, “Let them eat bread: How food subsidies prevent (and provoke revolutions in the Middle East?” Foreign Affairs, March 23 2011. 19 http://gitm.kcorp.net/index.php?id=579569&news_type=Economy&lang=en 20 Silvana Tenreyro and Miklos Koren, 2010, “Volatility, diversification and development in the Gulf Cooperation Countries”, Kuwait Programme Working Paper, London School of Economics and Political Science. 21 For key features of this development model, see, Tarek M. Yousef, 2004, “Development, growth and policy reform in the Middle East and North Africa since 1950”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 91 116. 22 Clemens Breisinger, Olivier Ecker and Perrihan Al Riffai, 2011, “Economics of the Arab awakening: From revolution to transformation and food security”. IFPRI Note, Washington, D.C. 23 This is evident in Saudi Arabia, for example, where there are considerable government shares in large business conglomerates. 24 Giacomo Luciani and Steffen Hertog, 2010, “Has Arab business ever been, or will it be, a player for reform?”, Arab Reform Initiative Policy Paper 1. 25 Marcus Noland and Howard Pack, 2009, The Arab Economies in a Changing World, Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics. 26 World Development Indicators 2010. 27 Nugent and Yousef (2005). 29 28 Ibid, chapter 10 (Lulu Shui and Peter Walkenhorst: “Regional integration: Status, developments and challenges”) . 29 José R. López Cálix, Peter Walkenhorst, and Ndiamé Diop, (eds.),2010, Trade Competitiveness in Middle East and North Africa: Policies for Export Diversification. World Bank, Washington, D.C. (chapter 10) 30 Francisco Caselli and James Feyrer, 2007, “The marginal product of capital”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May Issue, 535 568. 31 Paul Collier and Anthony Venables, 2010, “Trade and economic performance: Does Africa’s fragmentation matter?”, In Justin Yifu Lin and Boris Pleskovic, (eds.), 2010, People, Politics and Globalization – Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. 32 United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2009, Industrial Development Report 2009, Vienna. 33 World Development Indicators, 2010. 34 The Economist, 2010, “Special Report on Egypt”, July 17 23 Issues, London. 35 The agglomeration index for the MENA region is 67.5% compared to 62% in Latin America and Caribbean. For more details please see, Hirotsugu Uchida and Andrew Nelson, 2008, “Agglomeration Index: Towards a new measure of urban concentration”, Background paper for the World Development Report 2009, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. 36 Jeffrey B. Nugent and Tarik Yousef, 2005, “Does MENA defy gravity? How MENA has performed in its intraregional, EU and other trade?”, EUI Working Paper 2005/26, European University Institute, Florence. 37 Hassan Al Atrash and Tarik Yousef, 2000, “Intra Arab trade: Is it too little?” IMF Working Paper 10, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. 38 Nathan Nunn, 2008, “The long term effects of Africa's slave trades,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123 (1), 139 176. 39 Hirotsugu Uchida and Andrew Nelson, 2008, “Agglomeration Index: Towards a new measure of urban concentration”, Background paper for the World Development Report 2009, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. 40 An alternative explanation relates to the inhibiting role of Islamic law. See, for example, Timur Kuran, 2010, The Long Divergence: How Islamic Law Held Back the Middle East, Princeton University Press. 41The region’s fragmentation, together with the intensity of conflict, also increases military spending by individual states. 42 Malik (2011); Clement Moore Henry and Robert Springborg, 2010, Globalization and the Politics of Development in the Middle East, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. 43 The important exceptions in this regard are Morocco, Syria and Lebanon, which had sizeable merchant communities. 44 Nazih N. Ayubi, 1995, Overstating the Arab State, London: I. B. Tauris. 45 Adeel Malik, 2011, “Explaining Middle East’s political economy: Why history matters?”, forthcoming as QEH Working Paper, University of Oxford. 46 Jill Chrystal, 1990, Oil and Politics: Rulers and Merchants in Kuwait and Qatar. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 47 “This index corresponds to the uniform tariff that if imposed on all imports from partner countries would leave overall imports unchanged”, see Jose et al. (2010). 48 The World Bank, 1999, From Privilege to Competition: Unlocking Private Led Growth in the Middle East and North Africa, Washington, D.C. 49 International Monetary Fund, 2011, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. Washington, D.C.: IMF. 50 Steffen Hertog, 2010, Oil and the State in Saudi Arabia, Princeton: Princeton University Press. 51 Ibid, chapter 10 (Lulu Shui and Peter Walkenhorst: “Regional integration: Status, developments and challenges”) . 52 The World Bank, 1999, From Privilege to Competition: Unlocking Private Led Growth in the Middle East and North Africa, Washington, D.C. 53 Roberto Rocha, Subika Farazi, Rania Khouri, and Douglas Pearce, 2010, “The status of bank lending to SMEs in Middle East and North Africa”, World Bank Report, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. 54 International Monetary Fund, 2011, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. Washington, D.C.: IMF. 55 http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/ 56 Many countries continue to place stringent restrictions on currency convertibility. This is the case in Algeria, for example, which has a significant cushion of foreign reserves against a possible run on the currency. 30 57 Hoekman, Bernard and Alessandro Nicita, 2008, “Trade policy, trade costs and Developing country trade”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4797, Washington, D.C. 58 There has been a significant progress on maritime trans shipment. 59 The World Bank, 2011, Connecting to Compete 2010: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, available at: www.worldbank.org/lpi 60 J. Zarrouk, 2003, “A survey of barriers to trade and investment in Arab countries”, In A. Galal and B. Hoekman (eds.), Arab Economic Integration: Between Hope and Reality. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. 61 . Zarrouk, 2003, “A survey of barriers to trade and investment in Arab countries”, In A. Galal and B. Hoekman (eds.), Arab Economic Integration: Between Hope and Reality. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. 62 Julia Devlin and Peter Yee, 2005, “Trade logistics in developing countries: The Case of the Middle East and North Africa”, The World Economy, 435 456. 63 Julia Devlin and Peter Yee, 2005, “Trade logistics in developing countries: The Case of the Middle East and North Africa”, The World Economy, 435 456. 64 United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2009, Industrial Development Report 2009, Oxford University Press, Oxford. 65 Tunisia is a partial exception, since its exports of parts and components have significantly expanded in recent years. 66 The World Bank, 2008, MENA Economic Developments and Prospects 2008: Regional Integration for Global Competitiveness, Washington, D.C. 67 Examples of other failed projects are the Federation of Arab Republics and the Arab Cooperation Council. 68The World Bank, 2011, “Logistics Performance Index: Arab World”, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTTLF/Resources/515003 1276029788910/LPI_Booklet_MENA_Feb2010.pdf 69 Mourhaf Sabouni, 1997, “Arab Railways – past and present”, Japan Railway & Transport Review, 12, 22–25. 70 Peter Roberts, Shyam KC, and Cordula Rastogi, 2006, “Rural Access Index: A key development indicator”, Transport Papers (TP 10), World Bank, Washington, D.C. 71 Allen Denis, 2006, “The impact of regional trade agreements and trade facilitation in the Middle East and North Africa region”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3837, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. 72 International Monetary Fund, 2011, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. Washington, D.C. 73 Tarek M. Yousef, 2004, “Development, growth and policy reform in the Middle East and North Africa since 1950”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 91 116. 74 The record of economic reform is mixed in the MENA region. Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt were some of the early reformers in the region. Reform was partially successful in Egypt; in Tunisia and morocco it led to a revival of FDI. 75 http://www.mcgill.ca/files/icames/Boom_Bust 2.pdf 76 Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon and Egypt have been the prime beneficiaries of these foreign capital flows. For further details, see Lulu and Peter Walkenhorst, 2010, “Regional Integration: Status, Developments, and Challenges”, In ShuiJosé R. López Cálix, Peter Walkenhorst, and Ndiamé Diop, (eds.), Trade Competitiveness in Middle East and North Africa: Policies for Export Diversification. World Bank, Washington, D.C. (chapter 10). 77 Changing geo political circumstances in the wake of 9/11 attacks, liberalization of the financial sector and the recent oil boom have all played a helpful part. 78 Recently, the United States, when faced with the difficulty of negotiating an FTA, has pushed instead for a Trade and Investment Cooperation Agreement with the GCC. 79 For evidence on welfare gains from trade with the EU, see, Allen Dennis, 2006, “The impact of regional trade agreements and trade facilitation in the Middle East and North Africa region”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3837, World Bank, Washington, D.C. 80 In particular, trade between MENA countries can generate significant dynamic gains. 81 The US trade agreements with the Gulf countries are sometimes viewed as disruptive for GCC trade. There have been concerns among large GCC countries about the entry of US goods into the GCC via Bahrain. For further details, please see, Fred Lawson, 2011, “Geo political complications of US Free Trade Agreements with Gulf Arab Countries”, In Matteo Legrenzi and Basma Momani (eds.), Shifting Geo Economic Power of the Gulf, London: AshGate Publishing. 31 82 Michael Hudson, 1998, Middle East Dilemma: The Politics and Economics of Integration, I. B. Tauris, London. 83 “Rather than set as their first economic policy priority the goal of regional integration, MENA countries should focus on domestic policy reforms and the associated process of greater integration into the world economy”. In Mohammad A. El Erian and Stanley Fischer, 1996, “Is MENA a region? The scope for regional integration”, IMF Working Paper 30, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. 84 Douglass C. North, John Joseph Wallis and Barry R. Weingast, 2009, Violence and Social Orders – Interpreting Recorded Human History During the Last Four Hundred Years. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. http://blogs.worldbank.org/governance/the arab spring a limited access orders perspective 85 The World Bank, 2003, Unlocking the Employment Potential of the Middle East and North Africa: Toward a New Social Contract. Washington, D.C. 86 In this regard, the proposed accession of Jordan and Morocco to the GCC is a welcome step, but the driving incentive for this should be the integration of markets rather than monarchies. 87 Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, 2010, “Internal and External Security in the Arab Gulf States”, Middle East Policy, available at: http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle east policy archives/internal and external security arab gulf states 88 Mustafa K. Nabli et al., 2006, “The political economy of Industrial policy in the Middle East and North Africa”, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. 89 For a further illustration of this point, see the discussion in chapter 4, Nazih N. Ayubi, 2001, Overstating the Arab State: Politics and Society in the Middle East, London, I. B. Tauris. 32