May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

Organizer: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

III MOSCOW CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Conference Proceedings

Under the General Editorship of Ambassador A. I. Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation

May 23-24, 2014 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

CONTENTS

Greeting from the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to participants and guests of the III Moscow International Conference on International Security /6

Message from the Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon to the III Moscow International Conference on International Security /7

PLENARY SESSION Global security and regional stability Army General S. K. Shoygu, Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Approach of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to Global Security and Regional Stability /10

S. V. Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Diplomatic Approaches to the Settlement of International Conflicts /12

Army General V. V. Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation — First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation On the Role of Military Force in Contemporary Conflicts /14

Lieutenant General Y. V. Zhadobin, Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus Impact of “Color Revolutions” on Regional and Global Military Security /21

M. A. Khawaja, Minister of Defense of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan Problems of Regional Stability and Their Influence on Global Security: A iewV from Pakistan /26

Brigadier General H. Dehghan, Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran Defensive Doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran vis-à-vis the Key Points of Global Security /29

General N. N. Borduzha, Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization CSTO and the Challenges of Global and Regional Security /31

Major General M. Said Elassar, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Arab Republic of Egypt for Armament and External Affairs Phenomenon of Terrorism and its Effects on Development in Egypt and ountriesC in the Region /33

General L. Changcai, Political Commissioner of Lanzhou Military District, Chinese People’s Liberation Army Challenges of Global Security and World Development in China’s Policy /37

A. K. Bishnoi, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Republic of India India and Regional Security Problems /39

4 CONTENTS

PANEL DISCUSSION Finding ways of stabilization in the Middle East and North Africa General V. B. Zarudnitsky, Chief, Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation /45

Ambassador M. L. Bogdanov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation /49

Corp General M. Abdul Wahab Shawa, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed orcesF of the Syrian Arab Republic /52

U. Dekel, Deputy Director of the Institute for National Security Studies, State of Israel /54

Brigadier General E. Fadel, Chief, Lebanese Army Military Intelligence and Counterintelligence /55

K. Barzegar, Director of the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies, Islamic Republic of Iran /56

Ambassador S. A. Ryabkov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation /58

V. A. Orlov, PIR Center President, Russian Federation /59

PANEL DISCUSSION Afghanistan and regional security Lieutenant General I. D. Sergun, Chief, Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation /65

Ambassador Z. N. Kabulov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Afghanistan, Director of the Second Asia Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation /67

Colonel Z. K. Suerkulov, First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Kyrgyz Republic /69

Major General K. A. Dushebaev, Deputy Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization /71

Ambassador S. Amin, President of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Islamic Republic of Pakistan /73

Ambassador P. Stobdan, Senior Fellow of Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, Republic of India /75

A. G. Arbatov, Head of the International Security Center of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations /78

5 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

GREETING FROM THE PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION VLADIMIR PUTIN TO PARTICIPANTS AND GUESTS OF THE III MOSCOW INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

I welcome the participants and guests of without its difficulties and has been -ac of international law and the central coor- the International Security Conference to companied by an exacerbation of global dinating role of the UN. Moscow. instability. I am counting on substantive discussions Your forum, which is being held by the There has been no substantial progress at this conference promoting greater trust Russian Ministry of Defense for the third to date as regards the creation of a sin- and mutual understanding between our time, is steadily gaining authority and gle space of peace and stability in the countries and peoples. May your work be becoming an acclaimed venue for com- Euro-Atlantic region. productive and successful. mitted and detailed discussion of global The situation remains tense in the Middle and regional security problems and the East and North Africa. There are grave President of the Russian Federation search for optimum ways to resolve them. risks linked to the situation in Afghanistan. Vladimir Putin Key to this success is the participation in Today’s challenges and threats clearly the work of the conference of senior rep- call for the archaic logic of geopolitical Moscow, May 23, 2014 resentatives of the defense departments games that achieve nothing to be repudi- of many states, the heads of international ated, together with attempts to impose organizations and leading academics and home-grown formulae and values on oth- experts. er peoples, including by means of “color The agenda of your meetings has particular revolutions”. significance in the present context. The The entire world community now needs to process of establishing a new multipolar pool its efforts, relying on the principles system of international relations is not of equal and indivisible security, the rules 6 WELCOMES

MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE UNITED NATIONS BAN KI-MOON TO THE III MOSCOW INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

This is also а crucial moment for the Middle in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, East. I strongly urge Israelis and Pales- to improve our ability to anticipate, deter tinians not to take unilateral steps that and respond to threats. In а major advance would further complicate efforts to return for civilian protection, the United Nations to negotiations. The Syrian conflict contin- Mission in South Sudan is providing shelter ues to deteriorate, bringing immeasurable at its bases for more than 80,000 people suffering to the population. The United threatened by violence. Nations and the international community On these and other security challenges, must vigorously seek to promote openings both old and new, I look forward to explor- to а political solution. ing practical ways in which we can work I would like to express my appreciation to Many of today’s conflicts and crisis situa- together. Please accept my best wishes the Russian Ministry of Defense for hosting tions feature weak or non-existent state for а successful conference. this event. The Moscow Conference on institutions, transnational criminal threats, International Security provides а useful radicalized groups and spoilers employing Secretary-General of the United Na- forum for exchanging views on а range of asymmetric tactics. То be effective in these tions ongoing and emerging crises. less predictable, high-risk environments, Ban Ki-moon The focus of this year’s gathering on the we must be able to adapt and respond situation in Afghanistan and developments rapidly, with sound analysis and flexible New York, May 23, 2014 in the Middle East is timely, particularly in operational capacities tailored to the sit- view of the close links between the polit- uation on the ground. ical and security dynamics in each region. United Nations peacekeeping has progres- In Afghanistan, the political transition sively evolved and our Missions аrе now process is gaining momentum. Моге than executing increasingly robust and multifac- seven million Afghans cast their votes in eted tasks. More broadly, we аrе working the first round of presidential elections to synchronize mandate implementation last month, demonstrating courage and with domestic political processes to ensure commitment in determining their country’s steady national ownership of state-building future. It will be critical to ensure that the efforts. We аrе also strengthening insti- run-off supports, rather than undermines, tution-building, rule of law assistance, national unity. preventive diplomacy and the inclusivity With nо major security incidents, the April of peace and reconciliation efforts. elections demonstrated the progress made Success depends on political will and the by Afghan security forces. Nevertheless, availability of critical capabilities, such as the security and economic challenges in aviation assets, intelligence, engineers Afghanistan remain daunting, and the con- and medical experts. Our peacekeeping tinued support of regional and international operations аrе testing new technologies, partners will remain essential. such as unarmed, unmanned aerial vehicles 7 PLENARY SESSION Global security and regional stability PLENARY SESSION Global security and regional stability May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

ARMY GENERAL S. K. SHOYGU Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation

APPROACH OF THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION TO GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

Full-scale military force may be used for ous destabilization of the situation in the greater effect. This is evidenced by the Middle East and North Africa. Substantial war against Serbia, strikes against Libya conflict potential has been built up in the and interference in the conflict in Syria. countries of the Sahel. A number of African The pretexts for external interference states are on the verge of collapse. have been different in each specific sce- There is no let-up in the conflict in Syria. nario but there is a universal pattern in The range of forces drawn into the confron- its implementation: information action — tation is expanding. The region is becoming Ladies and gentlemen, I am delighted to military pressure — a change of political the source of a permanent terrorist threat. welcome you to this international security leadership and an alteration of the state’s Fighters return battle-hardened from Syria conference. It has become traditional for foreign-policy and economic thrust. to their places of residence, some of them the Russian Federation Defense Ministry In a country where regime change proves in Europe, and are ready to travel to any to have the pleasure of inviting leading impossible, the conditions are created part of the globe at a moment’s notice. experts from nongovernmental organ- for armed confrontation aimed at further Yet another zone of instability is Afghani- izations working in the field of security undermining the undesirable government. stan. The International Security Assistance to Moscow in May. The “color revolutions” experiment may Force completes its withdrawal in 2014. The growing interest in this forum gives be applied in any part of the world. The Responsibility for stability in the country us great satisfaction. This year, when pattern has already been trialed in the will devolve in full to the Afghan army and circumstances are so complex, the con- Middle East and North Africa. security structure. In this respect, there ference has brought together around 300 We remember attempts to implement the are concerns about the possibility of a guests from more than 40 countries and “color revolutions” concept in the space growing terrorist threat from Afghanistan. five international organizations. of the former USSR. In the recent past, Regional instability may be advantageous to We propose to focus today on the prob- this happened in Central Asian countries specific states. It can be very conveniently lems of how so-called “color revolutions” and Georgia. Now it is Ukraine. exploited to justify the large-scale trans- and regional conflicts affect global se- After the forcible removal from power of formation of the current security system. curity. the incumbent president with the active An obvious example is the deployment of The “color revolutions” phenomenon is involvement of external forces, the coun- the U.S. missile defense system in Europe becoming a major factor in the destabi- try hurtled towards civil war. and the Middle East, for which the pretext lization of the situation in many regions A seat of tension has been artificially cre- was the nuclear missile programs of Iran of the world. ated in Europe. Its appearance has had an and North Korea, which allegedly threatened Foreign values are being imposed on adverse impact on global security, too. the security of the U.S. and NATO. peoples under the guise of expanding Similar processes are now under way in We are convinced that regional conflicts can democracy. Venezuela, where the legitimate leaders only be settled through extensive interna- The socio-economic and political problems are being opposed by a so-called democ- tional cooperation. Only together can we of individual states are being exploited ratized opposition, fuelled from abroad. deliver responses to new challenges and in order to replace nationally-oriented Analysis shows that the results of the threats, including those from the “color governments with regimes which are “color revolutions” often differ substantially revolutions”. We are playing an active role controlled from abroad. from their instigators’ plans. in tackling urgent international security These in turn ensure that their sponsors Long-term destabilization is one result of problems. We have, for example, given have unimpeded access to the resources interference. Countries with shared borders substantial support to the initial phase of of those states. are drawn into regional confrontation. establishing a new Afghan state. The “color revolutions” are increasingly Regional instability has an extremely neg- Together with our allies in the Collective taking the shape of armed struggle and ative impact on global security. Despite Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and unfolding according to the rules of the the efforts of the international community, our partners in the Shanghai Cooperation art of war, deploying all available means the number of seats of tension remains, Organization, we are engaged in work that in the process, primarily the resources of unfortunately, as high as ever. seeks to enhance the potential of the armed information warfare and special forces. The “Arab Spring” resulted in the seri- forces in that region. This involves training 10 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

personnel, equipping the armed forces, and a heightened terrorist threat. Separate Together with the naval forces of a improving the command structure of the mention should be made of the fact that number of countries, the Russian Navy state’s military organization. large-scale military intervention in the has played an active role in anti-piracy Efforts have recently been made to Syrian conflict was averted through the operations off the Horn of Africa, which strengthen Russia’s military bases in vigorous peace initiatives of Russian has safeguarded regular maritime traffic Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The numbers Federation President V. V. Putin. Since in that part of the world. What matters of the air force element at the Kant the start of the international operation now is not to lose the experience that Airbase have been increased and the to destroy the chemical weapons with- has been amassed and to use it in other 201st Russian Military Base has been drawn from Syria, the Russian Federation situations. brought up to divisional size. The task Defense Ministry has provided that coun- Ladies and gentlemen, I invite you to is simple — to neutralize the threat to try with appropriate and diverse support. an open exchange of views. We wel- military security for the CSTO countries All in all, it has been possible to create come any constructive ideas. I wish in the event of the unfavorable develop- effective mechanisms for coordinating you success. May your discussions be ment of the situation in Afghanistan and international efforts. productive.

11 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

S. V. LAVROV Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

DIPLOMATIC APPROACHES TO THE SETTLEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS

to declarations adopted at summit level. inspire an armed intervention in order to Instead of promoting the natural (for any achieve their goals, which frequently have life) task of harmonizing integration pro- nothing to do with the fight for democracy cesses in Europe and Eurasia, attempts and human rights. were undertaken to throw states in the Regime change operations in sovereign post-Soviet space into a strict dilemma: states, various “color revolutions” initiated the West or the East, with us or against from outside, are clearly harmful to inter- us. In the fragile internal political situation national stability. The attempts to impose Sergey Kuzhugetovich, Ladies and Gentle- in Ukraine, such pressure was sufficient personal recipes of internal transformations men, colleagues, the III International Secu- to provoke a large-scale crisis of national on other peoples, without consideration of rity Conference, organized by the Ministry identity in this country. their traditions and national specifics, the of Defense of the Russian Federation, is a If we all want to provide the Ukrainian “export of democracy”, destructively affect good opportunity to assess events around people with genuine help to overcome this international relations and multiply the the world and to shape strategic opinion crisis, we need decisively to abandon so- number of trouble spots on the world map. about global development in its various called “zero-sum games”, the promotion of The acuteness of challenges to regional aspects. xenophobic, neo-Nazi attitudes, the dan- and international stability generated by The agenda of the conference proposes gerous superiority complex Helmut Schmidt different regional crises is not subsiding. focusing primarily on the prospects for recently called a “delusion of grandeur”, The state of affairs in Afghanistan remains settlement of conflicts in the regions of when he characterized EU policy towards tense. There is a threat that the situation the Near East, Middle East and South Asia, Ukraine. If we wish to avoid a repeat of will get worse in the area of security after as those creating serious risks for interna- such crises in the future, then we should international forces are withdrawn. The tional security and stability. Unfortunately, learn the lessons of the events in Ukraine Taliban announced the beginning of an- this acutest problem has remained in the and start practical implementation of the other “summer attack”. We are concerned shadow of the Ukrainian crisis in recent principles of equal and undivided security about the degradation of the situation in months. In other words, the European con- in the European Atlantic region and the the northern provinces of Afghanistan, tinent, which created two global military creation of a common economic and hu- from where terrorist activities flow into disasters in the previous century, instead manitarian space stretching from Lisbon neighboring countries of Central Asia and of demonstrating an example of peaceful to Vladivostok, as the President of the countries that are allies of the Russian development and broad cooperation to Russian Federation Vladimir Putin said, Federation. the entire world, is once again drawing the as soon as possible. We believe that when a new NATO mission attention of the international community in Unfortunately, schemes based on the pro- is planned, which requires the approval of terms of crisis settlement to itself. tection of personal exclusiveness, the use the UNSC, all the factors affecting the sit- Such a state of affairs cannot but concern of double standards and the aspiration to uation in Afghanistan should be taken into us, even more so given that it is not a mere find unilateral geopolitical outcomes from account. Particular attention will be paid coincidence, but rather a predictable result crisis situations are widely used not only in to the Afghan drug threat. As for the fate of the development of events in Europe in Europe, but also in other regions. This dis- of the agreement on cooperation between the last twenty-five years. Our Western rupts the effectiveness of efforts to settle Afghanistan and the United States in the partners did not use the truly historic op- crises. Absolutely different approaches are area of security, we expect that the new portunity to build a Greater Europe without used in similar situations. In fact, in some President of Afghanistan will take a deci- dividing lines, preferring the usual logic of cases, forces receive support, as it was in sion on this issue based on the interests of movement towards the East of the geopo- Libya, when our NATO colleagues actively the Afghan people and region-wide stability. litical space, which is under their control. supported opponents of the regime, but in Assistance to Afghanistan will also con- This, in fact, means a line of deterrence for other cases the same forces face an armed tinue within the ambit of the SCO, where Russia, even if in a mild form such as this. confrontation, they are declared terrorists, all its neighbors are members or observ- This course was implemented despite as was the case in Mali, where the same ers, but Afghanistan is an observer in this Russia’s insistent appeals finally to start people who overthrew Muammar al-Gaddafi organization. The potential and practical practical work on the creation of a common first confronted the French and then other experience of the CSTO will also be used. space of peace, security and stability in international forces. As a result, parties As for the Middle East and North Africa, the European Atlantic region according to internal state conflicts are tempted to Russia continues to support the aspiration 12 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

of the people of this region to a better life Unfortunately, our Western colleagues good-neighborliness and a decent future to ensure the implementation of democratic and some countries in the region of North for the people of Palestine, Israel and all reforms and to take the path of sustain- Africa and the Middle East do not agree the other countries of the region. able development. At the same time, the that it is time to renew efforts to continue In a situation when joint efforts are re- preference for evolutionary, non-violent negotiations and are continuing to bank quired in all aspects of the crisis settle- transformation, based on a dialogue aimed on military solutions. I am convinced that ment, it is hard to understand the logic of at the achievement of nationwide consent, this outcome has no prospects. For our those who take decisions concerning the is evident. part, we propose to use the positive expe- restriction of cooperation with Russia, We support collective action in all cases. It rience of local cease-fires such as the one when responding to common challenges was collective actions that allowed us to when Homs was liberated from militants, and threats. Of course, we can take the make progress on Iran’s nuclear programme based on agreements between them and path of scaling back our interaction, but and the chemical disarmament of Syria. government forces. We are convinced that this will hardly contribute to the fight We believe that there is no alternative to this practice can be successfully dissem- against terrorism, against the proliferation a peaceful solution to the Syrian crisis. inated to other regions. For this we need of weapons of mass destruction, to over- The attempts to use the humanitarian the support of external players, and they coming the consequences of natural and crisis or other aspects of this conflict to must recognize that the regime, which man-made disasters and to the creation justify external interference by force are they are blaming for all the troubles, is of barriers to extremism. The President of counterproductive. Such attempts are be- widely supported by a significant part of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, ing undertaken. Yesterday, our Western the population. There is and can be no emphasized a few months ago that he partners at the UNSC tabled for a vote a other way than to organize a dialogue will consider Russian-Chinese interaction, draft resolution that with reference to the with the participation of Bashar al-Assad’s which is based on respect for mutual inter- humanitarian crisis in Syria, proposed to government. ests and effective work for the benefit of apply Chapter VII of the UN Charter to this Concerns regarding the destabilization the peoples of our countries and the entire situation. There are no doubts that this of the situation in Libya are growing. It is international community, as a model of would be the first step to justify external evident that the situation in this country interstate relations. The new polycentric interference — this was clear from the has reached a deadlock, and no “friend” of system of international relations should be comments made by the co-authors of this Libya can lead it out of the situation on its based on such a foundation in all its com- resolution at the UNSC. Understanding the own. The final breakdown of the country ponents, including multilateral cooperation whole danger of this, Russia and China would lead to the creation of another point for the reinforcement of regional stability. imposed a veto on the entire resolution; of constant tensions and threats in the The coordination of common principles of it was not passed. Sahara-Sahel region. crisis settlement, which would not allow We appeal for the renewal of the Geneva We support the disposition of the Egyptian double standards, would play a positive negotiation process, the continuation of leaders in their constant implementation of role. We have been promoting this initiative the inter-Syrian dialogue in accordance the “road map” of the political process. We for several years in the CSTO to develop with the agreed agenda, the first item of are interested in seeing Egypt continue to such a list of principles of crisis manage- which is an end to violence and the fight play a stabilizing role in the Middle East, ment. I primarily mean confirmation of against terrorism. Let me remind you that, and in the Arab and Islamic world, con- the main responsibility of the UN for sup- last year, at the summit of the G8 at Lough tributing to the reinforcement of regional porting international peace and security, Erne, the leaders of eight states adopted a security and stability, contributing heavily based on basic principles of international Statement, which contains an appeal to the to the solution of problems related to the law, ensuring secure protection for civilian government and the opposition to combine Middle East peace process. populations, recognition of the legal inter- their efforts in combating terrorism without We are convinced that the need to re- ests of all parties to conflicts, organizing any conditions. This obligation, undertaken spond adequately to the development of an inclusive nationwide dialogue, as well by the states of the G8, should be imple- the situation in different countries in the as consideration of the interests of all mented in practice and we are seeking this. region should not distract from the task of political, ethnic and religious groups. It is especially topical given the activity of resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. Now it Respect for the right of people to deter- terrorist groups operating in Syria, on the is important to keep the chances open for mine their fate independently, without territory of Lebanon and other states. the renewal of Palestinian-Israeli negoti- external interference, should be the basis When discussing issues relating to the ations. The experience of the last year has of the efforts to contribute to the settle- transition period between the Syrian par- demonstrated that unilateral efforts are ment of crisis situations. Equal partnership ties, they should search for compromises not sufficient here and we need to return between different cultures and civilizations based on mutual consent rather than ul- to collective work for the purposes of is a key condition for a fair and democratic timatum requests for a change of regime. achieving a comprehensive, fair and stable world order, which, I believe, we all aspire An important point is that the delegation of solution of the Palestinian problem on to have. opposition groups at the negotiations must the available basis in international law, I wish participants of this conference suc- be truly representative in nature. which is envisaged to ensure security, cessful and fruitful work. 13 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

ARMY GENERAL V. V. GERASIMOV Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation — First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation

ON THE ROLE OF MILITARY FORCE IN CONTEMPORARY CONFLICTS

and approaches to it are experiencing sig- instance, began on the pretext of the nificant alterations. need to defend the Kosovo Albanians from This is attested by the experience of con- “genocide by the Belgrade authorities”. temporary military conflicts, most of them In Afghanistan in 2001, the military op- initiated in one form of another by the U.S. eration was presented as a “war against and its NATO allies. international terrorism”. “Preventing the In the recent past, the U.S. and its allies proliferation of chemical weapons” that have, as a rule, achieved their military and were never subsequently found served political objectives in open armed conflict to justify the coalition forces’ invasion of The destruction of the bipolar world order consisting of military operations conducted Iraq in 2003. brought about by the collapse of the Soviet directly against opposing states. The stated aim of guaranteeing peace Union has not made the world any safer. The 1991 Gulf War, operations against and stability was not achieved in any of Having retained and increased its own Yugoslavia in 1999, in Afghanistan in 2001 the cases listed. On the contrary, military potential, the U.S. cannot countenance the and Iraq in 2003 showed all the signs of action resulted in the escalation of ten- formation of new centers of force, since it is “traditional” military action. sion, the exacerbation of antagonisms, the positioning itself as the only international The only difference was the reason the growth of armed violence and civil war, and entity with the right to set the rules of the aggression was unleashed. In the majority the deaths of civilians. game in the international arena in order of cases, this circumvented the rules of The U.S. and its allies have spent more to ensure that its own interests are met. international law. A broad interpretation of than 800 billion dollars on Operation En- To do so, an extensive arsenal of tried and the phrase “a threat to peace and stability” during Freedom in Afghanistan. Even so, they acknowledge that the situation in that country has not normalized and there is no prospect of a positive solution in the Increased competition U.S. aspiration towards global domination near future. for geostrategic space, economic as a polycentric system of international Local law-enforcement agencies are not and natural resources relations takes shape capable of ensuring stability. A large pro- portion of the territory of the state re- mains under the control of various armed Deeper differences between states, U.S.-led NATO expansion and ethnic and religious groups alliance’s aspiration to replace groups. A network of rebel training camps existing international security continues to operate. There is a risk that mechanisms the activities of Islamic extremists will be transferred not just to the entire region but beyond it as well. Expansion of means for resolving differences, with military force During the more than 10 years that the retaining its key role International Security Assistance Force has been in Afghanistan, illegal drugs production has risen 30-fold. The U.S. and NATO, posing as defenders Main Development Trends of the Current Military-Political Situation of democracy and adherents of the rule of international law, frequently do not in- convenience themselves with tight control tested methods are employed, including set out in the UN Charter has allowed the over or liability for the appropriate use of the use of sanctions and the provision of U.S. and other Western countries to justify military force in conflicts. There are in- humanitarian, financial and military-tech- open military intervention in the affairs of stances of multiple allegedly “accidental” nical assistance to pro-Western opposition sovereign states. bombardments of civilian population by forces. Military force is the deciding factor The bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, for alliance aircraft, drones and military per-

14 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

tarian and other non-military measures. Search for a pretext to launch Iraq 1991, 1998, 2003 During the past decade, a wave of these a military operation “color revolutions” has been instigated by Yugoslavia the U.S. in the post-Soviet space, North 1999 Africa and the Middle East. This has af- Military operation Haiti fected the military-political situation in 1994, 2004 these regions and the world as a whole. Afghanistan Regime change occurred almost without 2001 violence in Georgia and Ukraine in 2004. The beginning of the “Arab Spring” was marked by the victory of “color revolu- tions” in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Yemen, and a number of other countries. Violence Opposing state was limited to riots and clashes with the law-enforcement agencies. At the same time, further progress of the “Traditional” Approach to Achieving Military-Political Goals “Arab Spring” showed that “color rev- olutions” are not an absolute means of political transformation and, under certain sonnel. As a result of drone strikes since remove undesirable regimes have become circumstances, may degenerate into large- 2002 to the present day alone, more than common. scale military action. 2,500 civilians have died in Afghanistan, “Color revolutions” are becoming the The events in Libya and Syria are good Pakistan, Iraq, and Yemen. main means of achieving their political examples. They clearly demonstrated an We are now seeing completely different ambitions. In the opinion of the initiating adaptive approach to the use of military approaches from Western countries to parties, these are supposed to lead to force, consisting of the minimum required promoting their own national interests non-violent regime change. covert or overt military intervention in the and those of the coalition. On the pretext They are based on political strategies situation depending on the situation on of disseminating democratic values, the that envisage external manipulation of a the ground. employment of non-military resources population’s potential for protest, com- In the initial phase of the conflict in Libya, and the adaptive use of military force to bined with political, economic, humani- the covert use of military force by NATO

Narcotics production in Afghanistan No competent There is a network of security structures insurgents’ training bases 2011 3 625 t operating in Afghanistan and 2013 more than 5 800 t distributing its “products” far beyond the country and region More than 80% of the global opiates production “Northern route” drug trafficking via Central Asia

Turkmenistan

“Balkans route” drug trafficking via The country is torn Iran, Turkey, Kosovo by civil war Afghanistan Kabul Country is divided into areas of influence governed by armed India groups Drug trafficking via India

Areas of armed confrontation Drug trafficking via Pakistan Pakistan Rebel camps Situation in Afghanistan

15 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

COUNTRIES WHERE “COLOR REVOLUTIONS” COUNTRIES WHERE “COLOR REVOLUTIONS” RESULTED IN A CHANGE OF REGIME DID NOT RESULT IN A CHANGE OF REGIME

Egypt, 2011 Armenia, 2008 Georgia, 2003 Bahrain, 2011 Jordan, 2010 Belarus, 2005 Kyrgyzstan, 2005 Djibouti, 2011 Lebanon, 2005, 2011 Iraq, 2011 Libya, 2011 Kuwait, 2011 Moldova, 2009 Mauritania, 2011 Somalia, 2011 Morocco, 2010 Sudan, 2011 Oman, 2011 Tunisia, 2010 Saudi Arabia, 2011 Ukraine, 2004, 2014 Syria, 2011 Yemen, 2011 Uzbekistan, 2005

countries resulted in increased assistance Unlike the Libyan scenario, in Syria, the the security of foreign citizens could form to the opposition in the form of weapons, countries supporting the opposition have the pretext for overt military intervention ammunition and materiel. This did not, not used overt military force to date, de- from abroad. however, shift the balance of forces in favor spite a degree of success by government In the opinion of U.S. and NATO experts, of the opposition. Furthermore, a break- troops of late. They are counting on a the approach to the use of military force through in the conflict appeared thanks constant influx of mercenaries and rad- adopted in Libya and Syria is an adaptive to effective action by Libyan troops. The ical fighters and on providing anti-gov- one from the point of view of both military situation began to escape the control of ernment forces with large consignments policy and that of the art of war. They claim the parties interested in regime change in of weapons. that it makes it possible to rule out major Libya. It was decided that international Syria today is a training hub for terror- spending on military operations and to forces would carry out a military operation. ists and “soldiers of fortune” not just avoid massive human casualties. That said, UN Security Council Resolution 1973 of from the countries of the Middle East overt use of the armed forces is regarded March 18, 2011 was used as the pretext and North Africa, but from perfectly as a measure of last resort. for invasion. This envisages the creation trouble-free European states as well. The question naturally arises, in turn: of a no-fly zone over Libya to protect the Essentially, a Syrian internal armed con- is this approach to the use of military civilian population from air raids by gov- flict has been transformed into war on a force adaptive when it comes to ensuring ernment troops. sovereign state by radical Islamist forces international security? We can obtain an This is one more example of the U.S. from virtually the entire world. answer by analyzing the post-conflict sit- and the countries of the North Atlantic At the same time, the possibility of a mili- uation in Libya, which is now more than Alliance interpreting the rules of in- tary operation against the Bashar al-Assad two years old. ternational law in their own interests. regime cannot be ruled out. In order to cre- Military aid to the Libyan opposition led to Essentially, adopting this resolution ate the requisite conditions, an extensive the emergence of an uncontrolled armed freed the hands of Western states to propaganda campaign is currently under force on Libyan territory. Opposition de- engage in overt military intervention in way, based on the West’s interpretation tachments have not yet been disarmed. a domestic armed conflict on the side of UN Security Council Resolution 2118 on Competent law-enforcement agencies have of the opposition. At the same time, Syria, which justifies a military operation in not been created. The state’s territory, states that might have intervened on the the event of problems to do with chemical including its capital, has effectively been side of Libya’s leaders found they had a disarmament. divided into zones of influence of the major restricted range of political options for In the light of Libya’s experience, protecting tribes. Tribal military formations hold com- resolving the situation. Syria’s civilian population and guaranteeing plete power at the local level and have their 16 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

Concealed use of military force

Supply of weapons Military training of rebels and resources Application of SOF and private Reinforcement of opposition by foreign instructors to anti-government forces military companies units with foreign fighters

Search for (creation of) pretext for a military operation No Has the resistance Accusing a conflict party of the opposing side been Protection of of using weapons of suppressed? civilians and mass destruction foreign citizens

Yes

Military Operation Change of political regime

Adaptive Approach to the Use of Military Force own armies, with heavy weapons, aircraft is particular alarm at the illegal trade in Libya is not safe for foreign citizens. The and air defense assets. The forcible Islam- man-portable air defense systems. Ter- whole world was shaken by the attack ization of the country is under way. Armed rorists in Lebanon, Mali, Tunisia and Chad on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, during clashes between combat detachments of are already reported to be in possession which the U.S. ambassador was killed. Islamists and armed groups not subject to of these defense systems. I do not think anyone is in any doubt that government control are gaining in scale. Libya has become a base for various ter- all this has substantially extended the The growing crisis of power has resulted rorist organizations, some with links to Al range of threats to regional and glob- in the almost complete breakdown of the Qaida. Their mission accomplished, they al security. At present, the new Libyan work of the oil and gas sector. look for “work” outside the country and authorities have effectively been left to Weapons captured from military depots do not confine themselves solely to the face their problems alone, since not one or supplied to the opposition from abroad North Africa region. In connection with this, of the countries that gave support to the in the course of military action are falling Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia are taking steps opposition has assumed responsibility for into the hands of terrorists, extremists and to prevent Libyan extremists penetrating a post-conflict settlement. An equally sad criminal groups all over the world. There their territory. forecast may be made regarding Syria. What then might happen should the ruling regime fall? In all probability, radical Is- Double Standarts Participation of foreign lamists will come to power, among whom policy SOF and private military companies in the conflict there is no unity even now. The coun- Influx of foreign try will most probably become a staging mercenaries and radical fighters post in the export of terrorism, extremism, weapons, and drugs from the Middle East to Europe and other parts of the world. Open military interference under the pretext Syria We are currently witnessing yet another of protecting civilians “color revolution” — this one in Ukraine. is not excluded Large weapons supplies Unlike the country’s earlier “Orange Revo- to opposition lution” or Georgia’s “Rose Revolution”, this conflict moved into an intrastate armed confrontation and almost degenerated into civil war, which is a source of great anxiety. Armed Conflict in Syria A decisive role in the seizure of power 17 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

Safety threat to foreign Division of the country citizens Legalization of illegal into the spheres of Derna armed formations influence by military Zintan tribe formations and Tripoli Benghazi their confrontation Berbers Ghadames Arabs Tripolitania Arabs Uncontrolled Increase in migration Sabhā extremism and crime Libya Ghat Cyrenaica Fezzan Uncontrolled weapons Tuareg Arabs proliferation Spread of terrorism Kufrah to other regions Tubu Legend

Areas controlled by the Islamists Oil and gas fields

Areas of armed conflict Existing oil and gas terminals

Pipe line Blocked oil and gas terminals Gas pipe line

Tripolitania, Fezzan, Cyrenaica — historical provinces of Libya Post-Conflict Situation in Libya Tubu, Tuaregi, Berbers — tribal territories

in Ukraine, as in the events of the “Arab Unlike the Arab states, where government authorities. In order to suppress protest, a Spring”, was played by extremist organi- troops engaged in military action against group of troops was created, equipped with zations, which contained trained and well- armed opposition formations, in Ukraine military hardware, artillery assets, multiple equipped fighting groups. These groups are the armed forces have been used against launch rocket systems and combat aircraft. now taking part in a so-called “antiterrorist” their own unarmed people, who expressed There have been instances of private mil- operation in Ukraine’s south-eastern regions. a lack of confidence in the illegitimate itary companies taking part in events in

Overthrow of legitimate government by using Change of political fighters from extremist regime organizations

Suppression of protests by using national armed forces

Kiev Kharkov Ukraine Luhansk Donetsk Operations by private military companies Anti-government protests Odessa Legend

Regions where the situation is under the control of the new regime

Regions where there are still protests against the new regime

Regions where the punitive operation is under way against those who do not recognize the new regime Crisis in Ukraine

18 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

“Color Revolutions”

Military support to anti-government forces, open military intervention

Increase in uncontrolled force

Mercenarism Terrorism Extremism Transborder crime

Expanded range of threats to international security

Consequences for International Security of Implementing New Approaches to the Use of Military Force

Ukraine. This confirms the steady trend The notice periods of NATO rapid response outside interference in the process of re- towards employing an adaptive approach forces are being revised downwards. The solving intrastate conflicts, from “color to the use of military force that has already intensity of operational and combat train- revolutions” to armed invasion. been observed. ing of alliance troops in the vicinity of The use of non-state armed formations as The dynamic of events in Ukraine does not Russia’s borders is being increased. the main instrument of force in conflicts allow for a conclusive forecast of how the Under these circumstances, we cannot leads to the growth of uncontrolled force situation there will continue to develop. It remain indifferent to what is happening. in the world. This consists of terrorism, is possible to assume with some confidence We must take retaliatory measures. The extremism, cross-border organized crime that an increase in the military force factor curtailment of military cooperation be- and institutionalized mercenary activities. and the scale of its application will be tween Russia and NATO as a result of the Entire regions descend into chaos. Force of decisive in resolving the Ukrainian crisis sanctions imposed on our country makes this kind is equally dangerous to those it and will surely have an adverse impact on measures to guarantee regional and global is aimed against and to those who created the state of European security. security less effective. it. In addition, the “color revolutions” are Events in Ukraine have aggravated the It is becoming clear that the new approach- one of the main causes of its occurrence. military-political environment in Europe. es to the role of military force and its use And we must be aware of that. Individual Western states have ratcheted in conflicts are not as flawless as they It is now becoming obvious that re- up their anti-Russian military rhetoric. might appear. Their implementation could gional and global security problems NATO’s joint armed forces groupings in have serious consequences for the world are becoming increasingly multilateral the Baltic states, Poland and Romania community. in nature and can no longer be tackled are being boosted, as is the bloc’s military Conflicts within states are ceasing to be solely from a position of force. We must presence in the waters of the Baltic, the solely internal and increasingly acquiring be equally aware of our responsibility Mediterranean, and the Black Sea. an international character. There is active for world security and not take an us-

19 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

and-them approach to the attendant and equal cooperation in this field can this reason, we must not make our own problems. More is required than the ensure that the security of all countries ambitions the key issue in tackling secu- parties merely being prepared to discuss is guaranteed. rity problems; the key should instead be these problems. Targeted joint action In conclusion, I want to stress that any clear recognition of the consequences of to improve the international security conflict is a failure to understand one the steps being taken and responsibility system is also needed. Only constructive another and to reach agreement. For for one’s own actions.

20 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

LIEUTENANT GENERAL Y. V. ZHADOBIN Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus

IMPACT OF “COLOR REVOLUTIONS” ON REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MILITARY SECURITY

not possess Russian Federation passports. structure, with rampant corruption in the And who can say how many Malians fought echelons of power, and the substitution of in the recent armed conflict in Central the primacy of state interests with that of Africa? What is the percentage of Syrian personal gain, tend to be more prone to citizens in the ranks of the Syrian rebel destructive centrifugal forces. Another rule army? All this testifies to the interna- of thumb: most susceptible to the “color tionalization of contemporary domestic revolutions” are those countries trying to armed conflicts. lead a “double” game in the international They are often based on ideas formulated arena, declaring their non-alignment with Ladies and gentlemen, traditionally, every at the end of the last century by the Amer- existing blocs. May, the Ministry of Defense of the Rus- ican political scientist Gene Sharp, namely That is why Belarus sees its participation sian Federation organizes a discussion the strategies of “a non-violent overthrow in intergovernmental organizations such as of transnational issues in the form of an of the government” or, to give it a more the Collective Security Treaty Organization, applied-knowledge conference. Undoubt- modern name: the “color revolutions”. the Customs Union, the Union State, and edly, this quorum is a valuable platform for Of course, the general principle of “di- other integrative associations as an effec- testing the optimality of landmark deci- vide and rule” is as old as the world. In tive factor in combating unconventional sions related to the military security of our today’s world there are many “frozen” risks, challenges, and threats to military states and for harmonizing the sometimes conflicts, existing because of and fuelled security in the form of “color revolutions”. diametrically opposed positions of various by geopolitical fault lines. Activating them Creating security mechanisms such as countries and international organizations. requires a specific catalyst. Implemented in the Collective Rapid Reaction Force and At the moment, the subject of the Moscow practice, the theory of “color revolutions” collective peacekeeping forces, ensuring conference is as relevant and topical as could not be more perfect for this role. It the effective functioning of the regional ever. Recent developments and the related is precisely this theory that allows for the grouping of armed forces of Belarus and actions and reactions of practically all the attainment of goals such as the full or Russia, as well as the united regional air players in the international arena point partial disintegration of the target state, a defense system of the armed forces of to what is still a high probability of the qualitative shift in its domestic and foreign the Republic of Belarus and the Russian use of military force in resolving not only policy courses, and the establishment of Federation, as part of the framework of transnational, but also internal conflicts external control over the country. the Federal Union, are the most effective on all continents. Today, in order to effect a change of power antidotes to destructive forces. It is pre- I completely agree with my Russian col- in an “objectionable” country — in fact, cisely for this reason that the President of leagues in their assessment that today it is to engineer a coup d’état — various or- Belarus, while watching the recent military virtually impossible to find an armed con- ganizational, financial, methodological, exercises of Russia’s strategic nuclear flict that is exclusively internal. A conflict and technical measures are widely used, forces, voiced the idea that our strength may be bounded by the territory of a single their efficiency virtually independent of lies in unity. While Russia and our allies state, but in fact it represents a cauldron the socio-economic and political situation are strong, we are strong as well. boiling over with the colliding interests not in the target country. Proof of this is the As already mentioned, all “color revolu- just of the political, ethnic, and religious fact that the people of Libya, Egypt, and tions” have been carefully prepared from groups of one nation, but also the interests Syria were clearly not poverty-stricken, outside. The first step is to create in ad- of neighboring countries, the alliances of with large social-welfare programs active vance and to educate the “leaders” and multiple countries, geopolitical power in all three countries. organizers of the protests, which serve as centers, and non-governmental actors. Practice shows that it is possible to “break a lever for the change of regime. If this goal Recent events in North Africa and the apart” both a poor and a rich country. At is not achieved via information and psycho- Middle East are a clear illustration of this. the same time, there is a rule that applies logical pressure on the authorities, mass Chechnya is another example. Our Russian consistently: those states without solid riots are provoked using weapons — riots colleagues know better than anyone else state power or a clear feedback mecha- that then develop into a so-called internal that Khattab and his soldiers certainly did nism between the people and the power armed conflict. For a description of the

21 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

mechanisms for the use of military force For some years now there has been much used by either party to achieve military within the context of the latter, please discussion in various fora and in the press superiority; they can also themselves be refer to presentations already made by about the inadequacy and failure of inter- one of the sides in a military conflict. As our Russian colleagues. national security institutions. Much arguing for multinational irregular armed groups, Speaking about the consequences of the has taken place about the sluggishness citizenship or ethnicity cease to be a de- use of military force by all sides during and inertia of the decision-making mech- termining factor or, really, to play a role modern-day military conflicts provoked anisms of the United Nations and the of any significance. In such circumstances, by “color revolutions”, it is important to “double standards” of the Organization the UN’s decision to grant a mandate for recognize their disastrous consequences for Security and Cooperation in Europe. the separation of warring terrorist groups not only for the victim-states, but also Assessing the effects of “color revolutions” or mercenaries would be quite illogical. for the international community at the in terms of protection of basic values and Furthermore, the UN’s amorphous position regional and global levels. human rights, it must be said that there is in relation to the legitimacy of “color rev- Just a year ago, at a similar forum we certainly an element of veracity in these olutions”, and the lack of clear criteria for discussed the fundamental elements upon statements. assessing the legality of certain nations which our common vision of European Enshrined in Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, exercising their rights to independence security rests. The changes that have oc- the classic use of military force to maintain and self-determination using measures curred in the intervening year serve only to or restore international peace and security of armed conflict, does not allow for an confirm the accuracy of our assessments. clearly no longer corresponds to today’s assessment of the validity and legitimacy At the same time, the spectrum of prima- changed conditions. During “color revolu- of the use of military force by either the ry factors adversely impacting both the tions”, peacekeeping mechanisms become state itself or the international community development of a common military-po- ineffective as, in these military conflicts, with the aim of preventing or de-escalating litical and military-strategic environment, there is seldom a clear line dividing the internal armed conflicts. as well as the situation in the European opposing sides. Among the fighters there The role of the armed forces — which are region, has only expanded. The changing are insurgents and legitimate armed forces, intended to protect the independence and situation at our borders at present is akin but also mercenaries working for private territorial integrity of the state from exter- to the constant morphing of images in a military companies, militants belonging to nal threats — in the prevention of mass kaleidoscope, and the consequences of radical parties and youth organizations, unrest within the territory of a state experi- these events force us to conclude that and soldiers of fortune fighting as part of encing a “color revolution”, encouraged and in Europe — to use an old phrase — the international terrorist organizations. In supported from abroad and accompanied smell of gunpowder is in the air. other words, apparent state control over by the large-scale use of arms and military Allow me to explain this statement, fo- and monopoly on the use of military force equipment, becomes blurred and unclear. cusing on the facts and events of greatest disappears. A striking example of such an international significance. Moreover, illegal armed groups can be legal vacuum is the events in Ukraine,

IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS IN UKRAINE

Project to improve the safety of SALW storage sites is being As a result of the destabilization of the situation, illegal implemented. It will help to reduce the risk of proliferation armed groups have seized SALW and are now using it to and illegal use. resist the authorities and to escalate the conflict further. Major project tasks: Moreover, the spread of these weapons into the surrounding territories is not excluded. ★★ Equipping weapons storage sites with lighting and alarm systems; Ukraine has common borders with: ★★ Replacement of inner and outer fencing of weapons ★★ Belarus – 1,084 km. storage sites; ★★ Russia – 2,295 km. ★★ Weapons record automation; ★★ Moldova — 1,222 km. ★★ Procurement of required equipment and material supplies; ★★ EU (Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland) – 1,391 km. ★★ Renovation of weapons storage facilities The total project budget is $3.7 million. OSCE participating States and the European Union are currently assigned more than $2.8 million.

22 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

100 PAX st 1 Mech Brig British Army 150 PAX 173rd ABCT (US) 4 F-16 Danish AF 3 Su-22 Polish AF Tallinn Ämari “Spring Storm 2014” NATO/Estonia exercise area “Open Spirit 2014” 150 PAX rd (05-23.05) NATO maritime 173 ABCT (US) Riga exercise area th (22.04-31.05) 30 PAX 126 Inf Reg US National Guard “Nameisis 2014” NATO/national forces exercise Standing NATO Mine Zokniai area (19-27.05) Countermeasures Group 1 (9 combat ships) “Flaming Sword 2014” NATO SOF exercise area (12-30.05) Malbork Świdwin 4 MiG-29 Polish AF 150 PAX 4 EF-2000 Typhoon 173rd ABCT (US) Royal AF (UK) 4 Dassault Rafale French AF

Łask “Black Arrow 2014” 150 PAX LTU/US Army joint exercise area 173rd ABCT (US) (12-23.05) 12 F-16 USAF “Steadfast Cobalt 2014” 50 PAX Preparation for “Saber NATO CPX Canadian Army Strike 2014” NATO (12-23.05) exercise Cîmpia Turzii

6 CF-18A Canadian AF

NATO Military Presence in Eastern Europe where, with active external support, an of control over military activities, rooted force during “color revolutions” should internal armed conflict — in fact, a civil in international treaties. also be linked with the probability of hu- war — has been unleashed, with people, One of the negative consequences vis-à- manitarian catastrophes, which lead to including civilians, being killed. vis building a system of European region- an unprecedented increase in migration An important aspect that characterizes al security is the existence of so-called and the number of refugees. All this cre- the dangerous consequences of “color “gray areas” or areas of states that are ates fertile ground for human trafficking, revolutions” for international and regional not subject to arms-control measures. cross-border crime, and the activity of security systems is the high probability of This applies to the position of the Baltic drug cartels. losing control over the security of weapons States in respect of arms control within During “color revolutions”, information and military equipment via the illegitimate their national borders. warfare is conducted on an unprecedented coming to power of certain entities. “Revo- The “post-color revolution” formation of scale, and not only — and not so much — lutionary chaos”, lawlessness, and looting new territorial entities and states that by parties to an externally triggered inter- contribute to compromised military ware- do not participate in the Treaty on Con- nal armed conflict, but rather by geopolit- houses and depots, and an unprecedented ventional Armed Forces in Europe could ical power centers with a vested interest increase in the illicit arms trade. Ultimately, mean that these territories and countries in the conflict. it may lead to the fact that weapons of could become completely unrestricted Information warfare conducted by the par- mass destruction and the technologies for springboards for the concentration of troop ties to the conflict spurs the growth of their manufacture could fall into the hands formations and advanced weapons. In addi- nationalist sentiment and xenophobia on of terrorist groups. It is sufficient to recall tion, these areas carry a high likelihood of both sides, the most dangerous trend being the example of Syria, where evidence of hosting bases for the training of militants the growth and legalization of neo-Nazi the use of chemical weapons caused an comprising irregular armed groups, which organizations encouraged by the leadership unprecedentedly strong reaction from the poses a high potential military threat to of individual states. As someone from a international community. the entire international community. Suffice country that lost one in ever four citizens In these “post-revolutionary” conditions, to recall the plans of jihad-preaching inter- on the fields of World War II, I feel complete state control of arms is not the only thing national terrorist organizations to create bewilderment at the inactivity of Europe and that is lost. Most significantly, what is an Islamic state in Central Asia. the lack of any sort of meaningful European destroyed is the intergovernmental system The consequences of the use of military sanctions against this activity. 23 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

STATEMENTS OF RUSSIAN AND BELARUSIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP

“... in order to demonstrate transparency, and “The decision to conduct “Union Shield 2011” the peace-loving policy of the Union State ... exercise away from NATO borders was taken in “Union Shield 2011” joint operational exercise is order to demonstrate transparency and the peace- being conducted on the territory of the Russian loving policy of the Union State and in compliance Federation. It clearly confirms a commitment … with the Regional Military Group’s defensive to take real measures to strengthen European nature”, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed security”, Press Secretary of the Ministry of Forces of the Russian Federation (2008-2012), Defense of the Republic of Belarus, Colonel Army General Nikolay Makarov Vladimir Makarov In 2012, the Union State did not conduct any large-scale military activity near NATO borders

In a global sense, information warfare Eastern Europe continue to be modernized. tries. This is too bad, since this initiative during a “color revolution” leads to a Also significant is an increase in the inten- was aimed at avoiding large-scale military military-political confrontation and war sity and scope of NATO military exercises operations on the CSTO–NATO border. hysteria on the part of geopolitical power in this region, specifically concerning op- Unfortunately, today the intensified op- centers. erational and combat training. The main erational and combat training measures Individual states significantly increase goal of ongoing and planned activities is of NATO in the Republic of Poland and their military budgets in order to support to test the readiness to repel the so-called the Baltic countries, as well as attempts the information campaign. In turn, a spur “threat from the East”. It is, however, un- at understating their magnitude, point to in military production and the growth of clear what sort of security is possible, as, the opposite, i.e. a continuous process of strategic, long-term military spending at this moment alone, in Poland and the creating a source of tension in Europe. determine the foreign policy vectors of Baltic countries, as well as in the Baltic In summary, it is clear that the conse- states, based on military solutions to prob- Sea, five multiservice, multilevel Joint quences of “color revolutions” can poten- lems that arise. This is a road to nowhere, NATO Forces exercises unified by a single tially be very destructive to existing global leading to nothing but a resumption of the concept are being held simultaneously. and regional military security. They are able Cold War and the arms race. Thus, we can say that, as a result of to generate a number of threats, plunging Especially alarming is the fact that, as part Ukraine’s “color revolution”, the peace the world into a new round of military of this intensified activity, the number of initiative that was put forward by Russia confrontation in the form of a cold war. NATO troop formations grows, new military and Belarus several years ago and was It is precisely not in the disintegration but bases are created, and there is intensive aimed at strengthening European security the fostering of ties between defense de- growth in the military transport infrastruc- cannot be adequately assessed today by partments as part of international military ture, while military airfields and ports in our partners among NATO member coun- cooperation that we see a unique window of opportunity. After all, it is precisely professional military personnel who can 21 exercises appreciate better than anyone else the 17 exercises catastrophic consequences of the use of military force, first and foremost as part 8 exercises of “color revolutions”. Increasing international military coop- eration at all levels and in all areas will facilitate the fostering of contacts and the reaching of compromises. Platforms for this already exist. These are: the Treaty on Conventional Armed 2011 2012 2013 Forces in Europe, the Vienna Document, the Open Skies Treaty, et al. Another issue is that they already no longer fully reflect the current needs in the area of European Increase in the number of NATO exercises security. They still make use of the bloc approach left over from the cold war — in the Baltic Region this despite the fact that Astana saw the 24 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

signing of a declaration on the indivisibility in strengthening international and regional country’s independence, constitutional of the European security space. mechanisms for ensuring military security, order, and territorial integrity, with the Nor are the guidelines on strengthening partnership and trust. Teamwork in the active support of the UN and the inter- confidence and security laid down in the course of exercises to counter military national community. Vienna Document adequate for modern threats posed by “color revolutions”, to The responsibility for war crimes is a realities; they are in need of updating. At fight against transnational crime, to en- case apart. The effectiveness of ensuring the same time, the proposals to improve sure border security, and to eliminate the criminal liability worldwide using Inter- it put forward by some states are, due to use of arms, will allow members to find pol’s systems has been proven. The same their fundamental nature, more declarative common ground in countering terrorism mechanism is necessary in the military than anything else. Today it is simply un- and extremism, the activities of soldiers of sphere, provided that all states without realistic to achieve real consensus on such fortune, and other irregular armed groups. exception participate in it. To create it, it proposals as a significant reduction in the In addition, it will help to determine the is necessary that the UN clearly identify thresholds of observed military activity. appropriate forms and methods of using the nature of war crimes that may occur The first step towards the modernization of armed forces in military conflicts generated during internal armed conflicts provoked agreement-based relationships — when, by “color revolutions”. In the end, it should by “color revolutions”, and compile a list due to objective reasons, it is not possible help find a point of balance between the of such possible crimes. to reach a consensus within the broad need for an adequate response to military At the conclusion of this report, I would format of the OSCE — would be to search threats born of “color revolutions” and like to note that the Republic of Belarus for acceptable solutions at the regional the inadmissibility of the use of the army is open to cooperation in all aspects of level. In our opinion, the interaction of two against civilian populations. developing regional and global securi- military-political blocs per the “NATO plus An important role in determining the ty systems, with the single significant CSTO” formula would correspond both to forms and methods of the use of military condition that these systems take into the interests of the alliance as well as the force is played by strong government account the interests of all participants interests of the CSTO. power, which should be ready to use all on the basis of the principles of mutual Joint exercises have proven to be effective available means to resolutely fight for a trust and understanding.

25 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

M. A. KHAWAJA Minister of Defense of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan

PROBLEMS OF REGIONAL STABILITY AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON GLOBAL SECURITY: A VIEW FROM PAKISTAN

ral geographical connectivity as well as Afghanistan. These factors provide some of unparalleled energy reserves. The booming the potential common ground on which to economic developments have entailed develop a regional approach to Afghanistan increased energy reserves demands and for 2014 and beyond. competing interests among regional as Needless to say, the historical adversarial well as global players. This implies that relations between Pakistan and India have instability in this region cannot be just a gravely impacted the regional stability. local phenomenon; rather it has serious Despite the resumption of the Composite global ramifications. Dialogue process, the trust deficit between Your Excellency General Sergey Shoygu, The ongoing war on terror in Afghanistan the two neighbors continues to persist and Defense Minister of the Russian Federation, and its fallouts continue to haunt regional core disputes, including the Kashmir issue, Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces stability. While troop drawdown is round are yet to be resolved. Increased Indian mil- of the Russian Federation, First Deputy the corner, the present security situation itary spending has led to wider conventional Minister of Defense, distinguished dele- in Afghanistan remains challenging, with disparity. Furthermore, the nuclearization gates, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. the Afghan Government facing a number of South Asia has added a new dimension At the outset, I would like to thank you, of problems, including an increase in opi- to the security and stability of the region. on my behalf and on behalf of the Govt. of um production, which helps finance the One of the disturbing elements is the dis- Pakistan, for inviting me to attend the 3rd insurgency. criminatory treatment of the nuclear issue Moscow Conference and honoring me by The Afghan National Army, entrusted with in the region by the global powers. It needs allowing me to share my thoughts on prob- providing an enabling security environment, to be acknowledged that the mishandling lems of regional security. This distinguished is a combination of people with diverse and of this particular security aspect has more forum is undoubtedly an opportunity for incompatible ethnic and political back- global implications than any other regional the countries in the region, including the grounds. Its efficacy in dealing with the issue. While it calls for restraint by the Russian Federation, to understand the planned transition and its aftermath is, regional nuclear players and an avoidance problems in the defense and security fields therefore, ambiguous. The militant groups of asymmetry in the conventional domain, and find solutions for durable and lasting in Afghanistan continue to gain strength, it also demands of major powers that they peace in the region. with frequent attacks in some areas at complement the regional efforts for lasting As regards South Asia, it stands at a cross- the same level as has been witnessed in peace. roads in terms of its security and stability previous years. The post-2014 Afghani- In today’s world, the concept of security environment. The entry into Afghanistan stan situation, therefore, becomes of vital transcends the traditional concept of border by U.S.-led NATO / ISAF Forces after 9/11 importance not only for the future and security. Due to the increase in population in and the ensuing war on terror, which has security of Pakistan but for the region as the underdeveloped and developing regions entered its 13th year, is going to culmi- a whole. of the world, we witness a more complex nate with the withdrawal of U.S.-led NATO It is clear that the process of stabilization form of security paradigms emerging out Forces from Afghanistan by December in Afghanistan would make substantial of national and regional mindsets. Coun- 2014. During this period the world has progress if all the countries in the region tries and regions are trying to secure their witnessed a number of tumultuous events support common objectives. Afghanistan’s future by exploring new avenues of energy in the South Asian region, which has been immediate neighbors, as well as others resources, water resources, adequate food regarded as a hub of the world’s economic in the region, are apprehensive about the and health safeguards for their populace. activity. On the one hand, there have been spillover effects of militancy, drug trafficking, These socio-economic imbalances have growing threats of terrorism and extremism arms proliferation and refugee outflows. resulted in the mass movement of illegal to regional stability, while, on the other On the positive side, the possibilities of migrants and refugees to other countries, hand, we have noticed the shifting of global greater regional economic cooperation, thus compounding the already fragile se- economic and financial interests from the including cross border connectivity, com- curity environment. former centers of economic excellence to munications and energy links, can help The stability in the Indian Ocean Rim (IOR) this region, which is blessed with natu- reinforce efforts for peace and stability in has also been jeopardized due to a number

26 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

of factors. The menace of piracy, though mestic, regional and global stability. Your tegic pivot has four main objectives: nor- an old phenomenon, has emerged as an excellencies, Pakistan, which has been at malization of political relations with its existential threat in the entire expanse of the forefront of the war against terror for neighbors, increased trade with neighbors, the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden and the more than a decade, has played a pivotal access to Central Asian energy resources Red Sea. Since 2008 the issue has gained a role in securing and ensuring world peace and making Pakistan a land bridge for trade global image as a severe threat to seaborne by fighting terrorism and extremism. This and energy transportation from Central trade and safety of navigation. Although ap- has resulted in the loss of more than fifteen to South Asia. These aspirations cannot parently emanating from the Horn of Africa, thousand precious lives, besides economic be realized unless there is peace in the its roots and benefits are linked to various losses of over $100bn. As we speak today, region. This is evident from Pakistan’s capitals around the world. Drug trafficking, over 150,000 troops are deployed on our proactive pursuit of the peace process gun-running, human smuggling and inci- western border along Afghanistan. with India, rapid progress in its relations dents of maritime terrorism have made the The country that has suffered the most with Russia and Central Asian States and region more volatile than ever. The situation due to instability in Afghanistan, Pakistan trade and energy-centric ties with China becomes even more complex with the pres- has the greatest stake in a peaceful and and Iran respectively. ence of extra regional maritime forces for stable Afghanistan. As such, it is in Pa- It needs to be realized that events like 9/11 protection of their maritime interests. The kistan’s interest to engage constructively have shown the magnitude of the havoc Indian Ocean, with the three most important with regional countries with a view to that can be wreaked by non-state actors choke points, that is, the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring that they reinforce Pakistan’s who have a trans-border, trans-cultural, the Malacca strait and Bab-al-Mandab, endeavors for Afghanistan’s stabilization. trans-religious and transnational outreach. remains a strategic highway for the global Pakistan has been following a policy of While we accept the potential benefits sea trade. Any interruption or interference constructive engagement with the Afghan accruing out of the concept of today’s to supply routes has far-reaching implica- Government. The Prime Minister has un- globalized world, yet the potential for tions for the global economy. It is therefore derscored two key principles of Pakistan’s destabilization of all the region due to a imperative to work for lasting stability in policy: non-interference and “no favorites”. single terror incident cannot be ignored, as the maritime domain as well. An effort is under way to strengthen the seemingly distant regions are interlinked We have witnessed the emergence of a bilateral relationship with Afghanistan, and interconnected due to the commonality complex power matrix on the international with emphasis on trade and economic of commercial and economic interests. plane, with implications for the region. We partnership. Simultaneously, Pakistan has In the present fragile political, security, see a reduction in the strategic space for the been extending support to Afghan peace economic and social environment, it is states and a compulsion to manage security and reconciliation through an Afghan-led imperative that the world community at interests within a cooperative framework, and Afghan-owned process. large and regional countries in particular while remaining relevant to key internation- Rather than being stuck in the past, Pa- do not interfere in the internal political al players. Despite a gradual shift towards kistan’s Afghan policy has pragmatically and security dynamics of Afghanistan, and multi-polarity, the USA will continue to evolved in harmony with the existing cir- should instead stay focused on bringing exert itself as a predominant power and cumstantial realities in Afghanistan, at social sector reforms to ameliorate the pursue its global interests. However, with home and in the wider region. Overcoming sufferings of ordinary Afghans. the emergence of the Russian Federation current and future security risks emanating Regional countries need to play a respon- and China on the global scene, there is a from the Afghan conflict and benefiting sible role to ensure that the economic po- likelihood of countries around the globe from trade and energy opportunities in tential is accrued from a stable Afghanistan. seeking to form regional alliances to safe- South and Central Asia in the long run are It is only through generation of economic guard their economic and security interests. the hallmarks of its Afghan rethinking and activity that we can ensure a stable and The role played by China and Russia in “regional pivot” approach. It is within such prosperous Afghanistan that would, in the recent crisis in Syria, along with the currently and futuristically valid factors turn, ensure regional peace and prosper- thaw in relations between the West and that Pakistan’s interest in Afghanistan and ity. Afghanistan’s security and political Iran, can be regarded as emerging signs of the region can be properly contextualized transition still revolves around a host of bi-polarities with regional dimensions. The and explained. ifs and buts, including whether or not the existing regional alliances like ASEAN, SCO Pakistan, for its part, has been taking a international community will retain its and SAARC would continue to play a major number of initiatives in line with its aspi- current commitment to Afghan securi- role in safeguarding the economic and stra- ration to promote its desire of economic ty and economy for a decade after 2014, tegic interests of their member-countries. cooperation in South and Central Asia. reconciling the currently competitive but These organizations therefore need to be Pakistan has been following a policy of potentially conflicting security interests of strengthened. building and stabilizing relations within regional countries in Afghanistan. Having discussed the regional stability its immediate region and pursuing policies In the regional perspective, it is incumbent problems, allow me to apprise you on the that guarantee enhanced trade relations upon regional players to adopt a policy of role Pakistan has played in improving do- and energy cooperation. Pakistan’s stra- co-existence and resolve disputes through

27 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

peaceful means. On the global plane, the adopting a just and equitable distribution Defense Minister of the Russian Federation, world needs to have a new set of socio- of ever shrinking global resources. Thus the and the organizers of the III Moscow Con- economic and socio-cultural values which important factor in ensuring global peace ference, and do hope that such Seminars should not only address the aspirations of and security is the future role of global and Conferences will help the neighboring the people but also safeguard their rights powers in the stability equation of the countries in evolving joint strategies to to benefit from their resources. The time regions of the world, including South Asia. overcome common threats and security has come to invest in human capital by I once again thank General Sergey Shoygu, problems.

28 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

BRIGADIER GENERAL H. DEHGHAN Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran

DEFENSIVE DOCTRINE OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN VIS-À-VIS THE KEY POINTS OF GLOBAL SECURITY

tunately, enjoys support and protection limited and short-sighted view of their from those who present themselves as security and the global community, as “fighters against terrorism” and “defenders in the case of the threats of the Clinton of human rights”, I hereby declare that government to use nuclear weapons and the government and people of Iran are, as the military activities of Bush in Afghan- they have always been, against any form istan and Iraq under the empty premise of terrorism, especially state terrorism. of fighting terrorism and the presence of Today, terrorism — due to strategic errors weapons of mass destruction, demonstrate and the generous support of the United how dangerous it can be to ignore inter- It is an honor for me to speak at this impor- States of America and its allies, as well national law and norms, especially if it is tant forum in my capacity as the Minister as their military-financial and educational done by those governments that strive to of Defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran. assistance — has gone from a security be known as fighters of terrorism and the Esteemed delegates, the Islamic Republic threat to a dangerous situation, to a mil- weapons of mass destruction. I am the of Iran is a state whose defensive strategy itary threat, and that is why doing battle Minister of Defense of a country that has is based on the key principle of relying with terrorist acts and organized terrorism experienced in full measure the harmful on internal forces as well as mutual re- is a serious task for all responsible states. and merciless consequences of the use lationships with friendly and interested The necessary fight against the areas serv- of chemical weapons by the Baathist gov- countries — a paradigm in which there is no ing as cradles for terrorists, whose roots ernment and the army of Saddam, which place for aggression, but under which ag- are in injustice, discrimination, despotism, occurred numerous times while the interna- gressors will without a doubt be powerfully and the exploitation of dispossessed and tional community and its power structures repulsed. In accordance with this strategy, oppressed nations, and the efforts aimed at maintained a strained silence. Barbaric at the source of which are the views and stopping the large-scale activities of those attacks, of which the Iranian people were religious dictates handed down by The who have made themselves known as part not the only victims, but also the Iraqi Supreme Spiritual Leader of the Islamic of aggressive armed extremist groups, are people in Halabja, led to many tortured Revolution, the production and deployment impossible unless there is the precondition deaths, and their consequences will spill of weapons of mass destruction, whether of a comprehensive readiness to act. over into future generations. nuclear or chemical, are considered a pro- I would like to take this opportunity to I am convinced that the fight against weap- hibited act, and are therefore rejected. At address certain countries in the region that ons of mass destruction and the ubiquitous the same time, defensive capability based are fooling naïve and fanatically-minded indiscriminate control over their prolifer- on conventional weapons, which are meant people by promising them an eternal life in ation, especially in the Middle East, is a to create a system of effectively containing heaven, while sending them in the direction guarantee of the institutionalization of any aggressor — who, armed with similar of eternal hell, and also to the ignorant questions of security and the effective weapons, would dare to attack the Islamic people who believe that it is possible to fulfillment of international laws and norms Republic of Iran — is an indubitable priority. walk into the kingdom of heaven over the among the members of the international Thus, allow me, on the basis of these corpses of completely innocent people in community. Based on this, I hereby an- principles, to again announce my country’s Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and other parts nounce the complete support of the Armed readiness to carry out its regional, inter- of the world. They are hereby warned that Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran for national, and mutual obligations before this is a road to nowhere, a path that is the continuation of talks with the “5+1” other countries and governments of the in stark contradiction to the methods and Group, and hereby plea in favor of the world and its regions, and to express our wills of all celestial prophets, especially removal of cruel sanctions and the annul- position as regards the major threats to the last one — the prophet Muhammad. ment of resolutions which were passed international security. under baseless pretexts by the UN Security Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Council as regards my country. Terrorism Destruction In my capacity as the Minister of Defense The proliferation of weapons of mass de- Political Meddling of a country that itself is the victim of struction and the threat of using them in A third factor that is a threat to the peace blind, mercenary terrorism, which, unfor- those cases when governments have a and security of the international commu- 29 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

nity is the political meddling of the United the volume of drug manufacture and sales respect many other issues could be listed, States and some of its major allies in has grown many times over, the power still, I believe that focusing on these five the internal affairs of other countries, the of the Taliban in various regions of the topics is of the greatest benefit. As my harmful results of which we can witness country has also increased, and so it is presentation comes to a close, please by casting our eyes towards any point on unlikely that on the day NATO exits the allow me to declare that the Islamic Re- the globe. region it will be leaving greater security public of Iran, which in the past three As the Minister of Defense of the Islamic in its wake. decades has made greater efforts than Republic of Iran, I declare that we are ab- The fact that the subject of terrorists in any other country to bring into exist- solutely against the incendiary policy of the Iraq is of continuous, daily concern shows ence regional and international stability United States and its allies, based on the that security matters cannot be resolved and security, and in connection with this misuse of sacred and hard-won concepts by remotely located organizations, and took important steps in order to defuse such as freedom, independence, democracy, that the only effective solution is the par- crises and problems to do with security and the fight against totalitarianism in or- ticipation of regional governments acting in Central Asia, in the Caucasus, in Iraq, der to overthrow lawful governments and within the framework of “a policy aimed at in Syria, in Lebanon and in Palestine, will to isolate countries striving for independ- the search for cooperation in the sphere continue these efforts uninterruptedly. I ence. We see these methods as comprising of defense and security”, with the aid of am convinced that, although each one of one of the primary factors threatening the their own and local mechanisms of fighting us has come to this forum from a country world and international security, and as the common threats. with a culture and ideology different from main reason for the growth and develop- The greedy, self-seeking policies of security those in other countries, and each one of ment of terrorism, and are convinced that organizations far removed from the region, us possesses a unique, personal point of the meddling of governments on the heels and their advancement to the East, which view, yet we can all agree that securi- of their gain-seeking and anti-humanitarian is occurring at the price of splitting the ty is something all of humanity desires, aims will inevitably lead to consequenc- region, causing forced conflicts between and that using force is an unacceptable es such as the birthing of crises and the various states, will be of no help in pro- and expensive way that not only harms destabilization of situations. moting security in the region. security, but also leads to new hatred and violence. Organization Responsible Abiding by Principles and The fight against the policy of violence, for Security Respecting International Values against extremism and terrorism is nec- There is yet one more sad circumstance. In order to provide for global security, it is essary and inevitable in order to ensure Many organizations that have been en- necessary for the governments that make global security. At the annual UN sum- trusted with responsibility for security declarations about putting international mit in 2013, the President of the Islamic in the region and the world have unfor- laws and norms into effect to abide by Republic proposed a plan for “a world tunately not been able to take effective international principles and values even free of violence and extremism”, which measures to shut these crises down fairly more so than others. Violations of laws was approved and accepted by the over- and once and for all. by them is possibly not being investigated whelming majority of the members of that Many of the existing organizations re- in any tangible way, yet the role of these organization. In order to strengthen secu- sponsible for matters of security have violations in the destruction of values and rity and to promote regional cooperation, been shown to be incompetent, and at the putting up of barriers to their insti- greater attention than before needs to be times were a factor in the escalation of tutionalization in the international com- paid to possibilities within the region. In conflicts. Most conflicts we mentioned munity is quite conspicuous. Ignoring the order to make this happen, we can, here earlier are ones that cannot be resolved personal and national immunity of states and now, plan meetings in order to have without the presence and active partici- with the aid of modern-day instruments negotiations and consultations, and create pation of regional governments, whereas of espionage and computer programs is a the appropriate organizations. the meddling of these organizations for violation of international law and a threat Thus, it would be commendable if we made the most part occurs on the basis of the to global security. these fundamental principles the basis following thinking, “the logic of force, not The use of double standards when ap- for our mutual actions aimed at defusing of social and local logic”. proaching matters of international import disagreements and reaching a mutual Matters of security in the Middle East, as well as regional and global difficul- understanding, thus directing our efforts the Caucasus and Central Asia, related to ties is an example of a type of perfidious at transforming differences in our view stable historical and social realities and the maneuver that leads to the worsening of of our ostensibly varying interests into a people of the region, are least amenable to global problems. basis for hearing each other’s words and solutions via imperial policies by govern- Ladies and gentlemen, respected dele- aiding in achieving a mutual understanding ments or organizations far removed from gates, although I know that the topic of and continuing efforts to find stable ways the region. NATO’s activity in Afghanistan international security is not exhausted towards achieving peace and security in has proven the truth of this. These days, by the five aspects mentioned, and in this the world.

30 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

GENERAL N. N. BORDUZHA Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization

CSTO AND THE CHALLENGES OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SECURITY

• The element of force is acquiring ever has been and is being experienced in greater weight in the foreign policy Afghanistan, Libya and Syria. The actions toolbox of the U.S. and the West. of mercenaries can currently be seen in Coercive intervention in states’ internal Ukraine. The popular German weekly affairs is carried out using not only the news magazine “Der Spiegel” wrote armed forces but extremist marginal that, on April 29, the German Intelligence groups with complete disregard for the Service informed the German government rules of international law. In order to that around 400 elite troops from the legitimize military action, attempts well-known U.S. military company Conference participants, it is a year since are frequently made to lobby for “Academi” were taking part in military the II Moscow security conference ended the adoption of UN Security Council action in the east of Ukraine. its work, during which highly competent resolutions (former Yugoslavia, Libya, • One way of further increasing military and authoritative experts from states in Syria). potential with the aim of achieving the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian regions and • Blatant economic, information and military supremacy is a cherry-picking representatives of regional international or- military blackmail aimed at directing approach to implementing existing arms ganizations discussed a wide range of prob- state policies into the required channel, control treaty regimes. The collapse lems in the field of guaranteeing security. alterations to the economic ties of of the Treaty on Conventional Armed The conference examined current problems allies in military-political international Forces in Europe and the unilateral of international cooperation in the security associations. withdrawal of the U.S. from the 1972 field, including issues of establishing and • The extensive application of the policy of Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty are the developing the constructive cooperation sanctions. At the beginning of the 21st most striking examples of this policy. of states and international organizations, century, U.S. economic sanctions alone • There have been no changes to plans including that within the CSTO-NATO for- operated with regard to 75 countries for NATO expansion (with the possibility mat, problems to do with the situation that were home to more than half the of Georgia and Ukraine joining the in Afghanistan and the prospects for its world’s population. alliance still in place). It is alarming development. Issues also include, among • Powerful media pressure on states that Brussels’ desire to acquire an others, international cooperation in the subject to external intervention. advantageous geostrategic space in area of countering what are known as tra- The specific features of information the East dominates this process and ditional challenges and threats (the illegal campaigns are emerging ever more the loyalty of applicants outweighs drugs trade, illegal migration and people clearly. They are based on notorious the need to comply with NATO’s fairly trafficking, international crime, crime in double standards and on hushing up or tough membership criteria. the information sphere etc.) and a number distorting the facts in order to create There is every reason today to talk about of others problems. the information background their a radical change in the military-political The main background for the discussion that organizers require. Essentially, a full- environment in the Euro-Atlantic region took place was the need for a fundamental scale information war has been launched and the world as a whole. overhaul of a global security system that in the global information space. And an No one is in any doubt any longer as to the was beginning to falter. information war has rules of its own. staged and managed nature of almost all Now, a year later, it is possible to summarize Well-known U.S. fantasy writer Robert recent events in the world, linked to the some of the results, which, in our view, are Sheckley once said: “The saddest fact violent overthrow of state regimes and altogether inauspicious. is that, in an information war, the one the reorientation of those states’ policy • The emergence of new hotbeds of conflict who tells the truth always loses. He lines, that are together known as “color in the world must be noted. In addition to is limited by truth, while the liar can revolutions”. Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, which have proclaim whatever he wishes”. Their geographical range is extreme- been plunged into a state of permanent • The use of foreign mercenaries is ly broad. The former Yugoslavia, Iraq, war by our Western partners and primarily a reality in states targeted for the Libya, Afghanistan and a number of the U.S., there is the “conflagration” in inculcation of so-called Western post-Soviet states have been subjected Ukraine. democratic values. This “assistance” to the West’s so-called “humanitarian 31 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

interventions”. Syria and Ukraine are on For the CSTO member states, the threats abating. According to figures from the the brink of intervention. dictated by their specific geostrategic United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, The motivation behind the policy can position (at the interface between the 30% of all drugs produced in Afghanistan be explained. The drastic heightening of civilizations of Europe and Asia) are still every year, and that is more than 1,200 antagonisms between the Euro-Atlantic extremely relevant. tonnes, are exported via the territory of and Eurasian civilization order is clearly The political and economic transformation CSTO member states. marked today. processes which are rapidly developing What are now traditional threats and The Western economic model, in which here create a breeding ground for conflict challenges to security are not receding, the U.S. is the undisputed leader, is in situations between the power structures such as the illegal drugs trade, interna- profound crisis. and opposition groups keen to take power. tional crime, illegal migration and people For Europe, the optimum route out of The possibility remains of protests against trafficking, illegal arms and ammunitions the impasse could be to strengthen the the backdrop of the global economic cri- exports and the spread of extremist and Eurasian thrust of economic development, sis and heightened social and economic terrorist activity. including ties with Russia. problems. In the present context, in which the world This perspective is totally unacceptable There is still a risk that social problems order that took shape over the past twenty to Washington since a break with Europe will degenerate into intrastate conflicts, years or so has become suddenly unbal- would deprive the U.S. of the opportunity to some engineered from abroad. anced, finding ways to avert an escalation control the European market and inevitably Conflicts with states bordering on the of tension is critical. result in the further deterioration of the CSTO may be caused by problems to do The world has reached a line. Crossing it U.S. economy. The situation can only be with unregulated state borders, the lack is fraught with catastrophic consequences saved, in the view of a number of Western of transport isolating countries in the re- of global proportions. experts, by isolating Russia from Europe. gion and a shortage of water and energy A situation has arisen similar to the one A fairly cynical remark by celebrated U.S. resources. that came about at the end of the 1960s politician and Russophobe Zbigniew Brzez- The situation in the CSTO’s area of re- and beginning of the 1970s, when the lead- inski serves to confirm this approach: “The sponsibility is adversely affected by the ers of the two powers that were at oppo- new world order under U.S. hegemony was volatile situation in countries that make site ends of the bipolar security system created against Russia at the expense of up, for example, the “arc of instability”: recognized that any further increase of Russia and on the ruins of Russia”. Syria, Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Iraq and tension would be disastrous and agreed Ukraine is now the main theatre in the Pakistan, the ongoing tension over Iran unprecedented accords to defuse it. struggle to drive Russia to the fringes of and the problems of Afghanistan. An absolute imperative for the normaliza- European civilization. Fundamentalist religious organizations tion of the situation today is a broad-for- What is happening in that country today are engaged in propaganda actively and mat international dialogue under the aus- fits perfectly into the logic of the ambitions with some success. pices of an authoritative arbitrator. being pursued by the West. Their connec- Ideas about creating the so-called “Islamic The UN or OSCE could be optimum forums tion to events in Yugoslavia in 1999 and Caliphate” to replace secular civil society for this dialogue on condition that the the Georgia-Ossetia conflict of 2008 can in the states of Central Asia, which are principles of objectivity and impartiality be clearly discerned. advocated by such well-known extremist in elaborating decisions were unfailingly In every instance, tried and tested methods organizations as Hizb ut-Tahrir and the observed. of carrying out “color revolutions” were Islamic Movement of Turkestan (formerly The dialogue must be preceded by an ap- employed — the leaders of opposition the IMU), are supported by a section of peal from the world community to conflict parties and groups loyal to the West were the population of the Central Asian states participants to demonstrate caution and put in power and the states’ foreign policy and the republics of the North Caucasus, restraint in their actions. lines redirected. The gravest consequence especially their young people. We are profoundly convinced that it is now of these transformations has been the The operations of these organizations are time to resume work on implementing partitioning of states, achieved, moreover, well coordinated and generously funded Russia’s initiative to frame and sign a through the use of military force. from Afghanistan, Pakistan and a number universal, legally binding European Se- Typically, despite the condemnation of the of Persian Gulf countries. curity Treaty. An international treaty of West’s power politics by Russia and the Afghanistan undoubtedly occupies one of this kind could concentrate in itself all CSTO member states, it is Moscow that the main positions in the list of threats to that is positive and useful in the existing is unjustifiably presented as being mainly the security of CSTO member states. treaty mechanisms and regimes which to blame for instigating the conflicts. The Fighters undergo intensive training for regulate the basic principles of creating a work of the whole “old” and “new world” action in CSTO states at specialist training pan-European security system, confidence media industry is aimed at stirring Russo- centers in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Prior- building and arms control. phobic hysteria among ordinary people and ity is given to post-Soviet state nationals In the future it could become an example of spreading false information about Russia’s when selecting potential trainees. and the basis for creating similar security aggressive designs and actions. The flow of drugs from Afghanistan is not systems in other parts of the world. 32 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

MAJOR GENERAL M. SAID ELASSAR Deputy Minister of Defense of the Arab Republic of Egypt for Armament and External Affairs

PHENOMENON OF TERRORISM AND ITS EFFECTS ON DEVELOPMENT IN EGYPT AND COUNTRIES IN THE REGION

Terrorism as a Global Phenomenon under various covers, but the key purpose and its Effects on International for each is still related in its essence to Peace and Security achieving political ambitions. The covers The phenomenon of terrorism has come are as follows: to represent one of the key features in • Religious cover — Using religion is the World Order. It covered all scenes and considered the easiest way to reach spread into various communities, despite inside brains of the individuals in terrorist its levels of emergence differing from one groups\organizations, by changing Ladies and gentlemen, the Middle East place to another due to environment, caus- correct religious interpretations to region is undergoing a period of critical es and reasons. other false and erroneous ones. Those danger, especially after the outbreak of The hard truth is that terrorism has be- who reject such interpretations are the “Arab Spring revolutions”, in the light come more dangerous than war — it’s declared takfir (i.e. excommunicated of the multiple crises and issues the region not related to one’s homeland or race or from Islam). The groups that use religion suffers — and the failure of attempts to religion, and it’s not differentiating be- are considered the most dangerous and resolve most of them [Palestinian Issue — tween the developed countries and the aggressive. They recruit their followers Syrian Crisis — The Situation in Libya and developing ones. and collect finances by means of using Sudan and South Sudan] and the spread of Terrorism at the present time became a the false interpretation of the religion. terrorist and extremist elements as never severe crisis — imposing itself over inter- • The cover of the armed struggle — It witnessed before in the region. national community, after dimensions of it is one of the reasons used to commit The overall facts of the regional situation has become not limited with the terrorism terror acts. The armed struggle now is and the possibilities of their development incident itself, but including direct and a developed form compared to what it are creating more challenges and threats — indirect reactions and attempts of some was in the Colonial era, but it developed to regional security and stability, and creat- parties to benefit from it, serving their by moving the battle field to countries ing direct consequences for Egypt’s national own interests. that are not related to the case of security, which is undergoing domestic In spite of all achievements till now under the struggle in any way, like blowing and foreign challenges never previously the counter-terrorism campaign — still up embassies there for example. The witnessed, related to the fact that Egypt all clues confirm that the elements of armed struggle is also transformed was in the middle and in the focus of the terrorism are expanding geographically, from targeting the colonial forces to ongoing events. and new generations of it appear and are hit civilians. All that necessitates intensifying all coop- working in non-central manner in ways that • Poverty [Poverty of countries/poverty eration and solidarity efforts to overcome are difficult to detect and identify. That of individuals] — There is no doubt that these consequences — and to support situation demands collective cooperation poverty is one of the key elements of development and security, fulfilling common to handle the real causes of terrorism and the actual fuel for people committing interests and goals. deal with its elements by all means. terrorism acts, because poverty is the Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to intro- With all the hits against the main terrorist entrance to the weak souls heating up duce the effect of terrorism on regional organizations, specially in Afghanistan — their hatred for both the community countries’ development and Egypt through last of which was killing the leader of where the poor live, and for the rich the following key elements: Al-Qaida organization Osama Bin Laden, countries. In our experience with • Terrorism as a global phenomenon and its evidence shows that Al-Qaida went on terrorism in Egypt, it was found that effect on international peace and security; forming new bases in regions that are far most people that committed suicide were • Characterizing the nature of the from control of the governments, or in actually from the bottom of the society. phenomenon of terrorism in Egypt; areas suffering crisis, where the African Studying the phenomenon of terrorism, • Terrorism affecting development plans Sahel region in the desert and Somalia aggression and security environment in in Egypt and the countries of the region; and Syrian Iraqi borders represent a typical the Middle East shows the following facts: • The Egyptian point of view on dealing examples for such an activity. • Rise of terrorism threats in the Middle with the phenomenon of terrorism and The terrorist groups and organizations East — in the situation of resentment containing its fallout. have several motives to achieve their goals and frustration that people of the region 33 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

live under. That is related to the failure in the region — and emerging Al-Qaida al-Sharia]. They seek targeting all finding fair solutions for the key issues, capabilities in supporting those elements the vital facilities and to fight against and because of the double standard in training and planning and moving… as security forces [Army-Police] to take policy in dealing with region’s problems, well as the availability of the means of control over their regions of influence and the fallback of the economic and communication and control using modern and establish an independent Islamic living conditions there. [That was electronic devices of high technology, emirate in Sinai. Now those formations mentioned in the calls of Al-Qaida and also the Internet. are united under the wing of Ansar Bayt leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to support • Emerging new groups of terrorists in al-Maqdis except the group of Al-Takfir the mujahidin]. the region that didn’t exist before — of wal Hijra. • Some countries of the region turned into which [ISIS or ISIL in Iraq — Al-Qaeda • Armed jihadi formations — They adopt an attractive environment for all terrorist in the Islamic Maghreb — Al-Qaeda in radical Islamic ideology and link it elements — the local, and the foreign the Arabian Peninsula] are the most with liberating territories from both multinational ones, and that increases prominent. occupying forces and ones that do not the risk of infiltrating their threats • The African Sahel region on the borders implement Islamic Sharia in their radical through borders to the neighboring of the Arabic countries to the north west point of view. Also, they seek to commit states, and threatening to expand the of the continent — is a typical example acts of armed aggression and assaults range of confrontations, turning it into for the key terrorist formations to against neighboring countries [Israel] regional military conflict. establish their new bases in the regions and to open new fronts to ease the The split of main acting powers in the there, which are far from governments’ burden over Gaza Strip. Some examples region to three main vectors — as follows: control. of them: [Army of Islam — Jeish • The first vector is led by moderate Muhammad–Jaljalat - …..]. powers working through negotiations Characterizing the Nature of the • Terrorist elements\groups\cells — that and peaceful and balanced solutions Phenomenon of Terrorism in Egypt belong to international organization to reach fair settlement to the chronic Many security challenges were formed due of terrorist group of the Muslim problems in the region [Egypt–Saudi to the nature of the security environment Brotherhood, which the so called Arabia–UAE–Kuwait–Bahrain–Jordan…]. surrounding Egyptian national security Al-Azhar Militia group formed and • The second vector is parties seeking circles, in light of middle and high supervised its training, besides forming to develop their regional role through intensity armed disputes and conflicts on organized groups and small cluster supporting the streams of the Political most strategic directions and their depth, cells of 2-3 people, that were named Islam, or by depending on a religious in addition to the climate in which Egypt [The Lone Wolves]. cover, in addition to the cooperation lives because of the revolutionary activity 2. After overthrowing the Muslim with armed groups and ethnicities and caused by 25th of January and 30th of Brotherhood organization in the 30th minorities in the region that have goals June revolutions outbreak. Described of June revolution, the organization is and interests meet with the ones of the security challenges come under following still insisting on practicing terrorist acts powers of the 2nd vector, in a way leads dimensions: to terrorize the citizens and to target to threaten domestic stability in some 1. Egyptian stage is witnessing waves security headquarters and [army-police] countries and to infiltrate these threats of terrorism after the failed experience and their private properties. In addition to to the regional neighbors. of Political Islam stream that reached targeting some vital targets, cooperating • The third — Jihadi/Takfiri organizations power in the country, specially after in all this with takfiri and jihadi armed that seek to overthrow some regimes making alliances with the Salafi and Jihadi formations, with concentration on the in the region, and to spread their streams and Al-Qaida organization and following: extremist religious beliefs to control anarchist movements to get their support • Committing acts of killing and destruction Arabic communities, through widening in a desperate attempt to restore power. and burning public and private properties the range of their terrorist operations The terrorist activities Egypt is undergoing under the cover of the protests, to create without paying any considerations to can be separated as following according a state of chaos in the Egyptian society. the geographical territories of their to their danger on security: • Committing planned terrorism acts operations, in the framework of their • Takfiri formations — seek to spread targeting army and police and burning ideas to form an expanded Islamic the extremist ideological thought security headquarters and police camps. emirate [ISIS or ISIL in Iraq — Al-Qaeda according to conception of establishing • Committing terrorist operations inside in the Islamic Maghreb — Al-Qaeda in the extremist Islamic emirate. Their universities and burning educational the Arabian Peninsula] not excluding activity concentrated in [Rafah — facilities and perpetrating riots to moving their threats to other regional Sheikh Zuweid — Al Arish] triangle in destroy public and private properties and stages including the western ones. Sinai, including formations of [Tawhid working against security forces to disrupt • The expansion of the geographical range and Jihad, Al-Takfir wal Hijra, the the educational process in the country, of terrorist and extremist elements’ Mujahideen Shura Council, Ansar Bayt showing this way state’s disability in activities on the most main vectors in Al-Maqdis, the Salafist jihadist, Ansar taking control over the security situation. 34 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

• Continuing supporting takfiri and jihadi schools to serve all citizens. That stand behind terrorism, even if there is no formations inside the country and abroad makes the political and economic and actual terror acts. and cooperating with them and sending development programs and plans with its own members to the train camps no results. Egyptian Point of View about abroad [Gaza Strip–East of Libya] to • Large national capitals flee offshore, Dealing with the Phenomenon form trained cadres, as an attempt to and some sectors get damaged directly of Terrorism and Containing its exhaust Egypt state’s strength and to from terrorism acts, like tourism sector, Fallouts: impose political will by terrorist methods which is usually vital and important 1. How do we face terrorist ideology and means. for the society, gives benefits for and acts: Eliminating terrorism requires millions of families helping them to forming a global strategy aimed at lifting Terrorism Affecting Development improve their living conditions. Besides, up the level of international and regional Plans in Egypt and Countries of affecting security environment, that cooperation vectors, and concentrating on the Region: must be available to improve economic understanding peoples’ psychology and Due to accurate researches for the phe- performance rates. dealing with it and with the key reasons for nomenon of terrorism and its effects on • Reluctance of biggest companies the growth of the terrorism phenomenon, economic situation overall and develop- and multinational ones to establish and in this context, I see that there is ment plans and resources and economies investment projects that creates jobs an international framework to contain of peoples and countries in the region, the in the developing societies, because terrorism, and another local one. following facts show up: those companies fear their capitals might The international framework: 1. Risks of terrorism hit the national be damaged by terrorist organizations, • Supporting dialog between civilizations economies, which is the lifeline of the despite the fact that the material and instead of confrontation, to make societies. For example, damaging legal infrastructures in the countries peoples’ points of view closer to each [airports and seaports — tourism — Oil affected by terrorism are available, other, and to help understanding religions facilities] leads to a total\partial paralysis, and in spite of the economic and social correctly, not like terrorist organizations destruction of the community, ceasing circumstances offered to the businesses interpreting religion, trying this way development process and effecting there. to get use of it, because disrespecting manpower of the state. • Preventing society from benefiting religions and insulting the prophets serve 2. Data, statistics and lots of researches from both domestic and foreign only terrorist organizations, but not the confirmed that international terrorism experiences and competencies in case we work on. directly affects economic security, where various specializations, and that • It is time to put an end to what left of the its consequences reach out the targeted damage is not limited to some sectors colonized spots or occupying territories state to many other countries, reflecting like [universities – centers of scientific illegally, because there is no doubt that lots of economic variables, like [inflation – researches – hospitals – companies and peace and security of countries are linked unemployment – investments – currency various productive sectors]. to ending the conflicts all over the world. exchange rate – financial markets – • Fewer jobs become available and the • It’s very important to deal with issues state’s budget – insurance – tourism – level of the professional training and of all nations in one standard, specially, transportation …]. rehabilitation and preparation for local from the side of the major countries, 3. Key reasons of the underdevelopment workers degrades, comparing with because this way those countries would in many developing countries come the case, when it’s normal and stable give an ideal and a role model to whole from political and security and social situation in the country. the world, which turned into a small disturbances those states suffer from. • More defects occur to the trade balance village because of the advance of the The most important effects of terrorism are between countries, and that reduces communication means. the rise of unemployment, inflation, decline chances for legitimate competition • Creating an international program of investments and the fall in financial between these countries and economic financed by the rich countries to help markets, bankruptcy of companies and blocs they associated with. the poor states standing on feet and insurance and tourism sectors, instability in 4. In this context, there must be developing. national currencies’ exchange rates against confirmation on that the international • Establishing an international system international ones, increased imbalance in community should realize that terrorism to cooperate in counter-terrorism, the balance of payments. All that is a direct affects the global economy in general starting from exchanging information result of the following factors: and national economy in particular. Also, and joining efforts in resisting terror • Imposing more pressures and burdens on it’s very important not to overestimate acts, and quickly removing effects of state’s budgets in light of increased rates the fallouts of the terror acts to show the terror activities in the countries of spending on the war on terror, at the like the society lives in a state of war. damaged, and prosecuting groups expense of humanitarian development Because spreading fear and instability is standing behind terrorism, and making projects and essential structures, like one of terrorism purposes, and considered sure those crimes will not be outdated, roads construction and hospitals and enough to achieve goals of those who and bringing the criminals to justice, 35 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

besides the importance of drying up the • Depending on the support for the in that contest is the Egyptian draft sources financing terrorists. country’s measures in counter- resolution introduced in the 9th United Domestic counter-terrorism framework: terrorism from the grassroots, and Nations Congress on the Prevention • Working in the international system of lying on the strong ties people have of Crime Conference held in Cairo, cooperation by means of exchanging between them in their all communities. besides the proposals in Arab interior information and experiences… etc. • Using directed media programs in ministers’ conferences in Tunisia, along • Deterrence — by denying any of cooperation with the clergy to raise with undergoing Egyptian efforts in terrorists’ demands and conforming awareness about the danger and the United Nations to reach specific that in media. motivations terrorist organizations definition for the phenomenon of • Uniting efforts — between all the have, with opening the door for terrorism. intelligence services in the state with constructive dialogue with more • Foreign ministry of Egypt is particularly the counter terrorism services. moderate elements, giving them the careful about containing acts of the • Securing counter measures — with helping hand to turn back to the proper states supporting terrorism inside secrecy in planning, and with using behavior and participating in building Egypt, and inside countries of the methods of force and surprise factor. the society. region in general, using civilized • Preventive security — By putting • Enlarging circle of interests about methods that do not use aggression plans in advance to face terror acts, social and economic reforms, and for aggression method as an approach, and continuously pursuing centers paying special care for providing new in context of being careful about of terrorism, and watching situation jobs for the youngsters [by encouraging the nature of the relations that join accurately to abort any terrorists’ investments in the regions with lower peoples of the nations, in addition attempts to reactivate. standards of living] through offering to Egyptian true will about adopting 2. Allow me to introduce quickly the many privileges (for investors in remote policy of dialogue in dealing with Egyptian strategy for counter-terrorism areas). various issues, and refusing the (as a model for one of the Middle East • Security authorities should intensify concept of intervention in the internal countries). Egypt adopts a long-term preventive measures and provide hard affairs for any of the countries. strategy, in which all institutions of strikes against VIPs and leaderships of This strategy is extended and a long-term the mentioned state are involved in terrorism and extremism, and adopting one in facing this phenomenon. It realizes immunizing society [by developing people policy of possessing initiative in dealing the importance of going on with the con- and economy] and expanding the base of with these streams, and achieving frontation policies to uproot terrorist and cooperation on various levels [national – success in pursuing their financing extremist elements, at the same time, regional – international] to establish sources, with tightening grip on the when cooperation and international coor- database and to use it in pursuing border crossings. dination base to counter this phenomenon leaderships and groups of terrorists, and Outside the country: is expanding. in cooperating between security services • Intensifying diplomatic efforts to reach Finally, eliminating the phenomenon of the and the public to eliminate terrorism, and many international security agreements terrorism requires a global strategy keens in cooperating with services our friends to fight this phenomenon [information to maximize the international and regional have to capture escaped terrorists and get exchange — detaining and exchanging cooperation, and using all methods [po- them back, and to reduce chances of them criminals involved in terror acts - …]. litical – economic – security – judicial – getting a safe haven by working on several • Positive participation in the internat intelligence], without limiting efforts by directions, domestic and foreign — in the ional efforts to put legislations and using only the force to eliminate systems following way: treaties to counter the phenomenon of and organizations and elements supporting Domestically: terrorism. Probably the most bright one this phenomenon.

36 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

GENERAL L. CHANGCAI Political Commissioner of Lanzhou Military District, Chinese People’s Liberation Army

CHALLENGES OF GLOBAL SECURITY AND WORLD DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA’S POLICY

a broad discussion of important issues stability in Ukraine as soon as possible. of international security is of paramount There is still a difficult situation in the importance. fight against international terrorism. The Taking this opportunity, I would like to terrorist attacks in China and Central Asia share our views on the security situation show that terrorism and extremism remain in the world and in [our] region, as well as the main threats to security in the area. on China’s peaceful development. In recent centuries the Chinese people have In today’s world, peace, development, suffered greatly from war and poverty, and cooperation, and mutually beneficial situ- these historical lessons have made us Minister of Defense Shoygu and Chief of the ations seem to be the trend of the era; but cherish peace and growth. We learned that General Staff Gerasimov, ladies and gentle- the international systems is not yet stable, growth is based on, and depends on, peace. men, I am very glad to be in Moscow, along the conflicts of the day are constantly Without peace, there is no development with representatives of all the countries being escalated, and international politics or growth, and without growth, it is not of the world and international organiza- is due a correction. The uncertainty and possible to achieve true peace. tions, for this conference on international instability affecting the global and regional China unswervingly adheres to the path of security. First of all, on behalf of Member status quo are multiplying. The task of peaceful growth. Over the 30 years that of the State Council of the DRC, Minister ensuring world peace and development have passed since its policy of reform and of Defense, General Chang Wanquan, on assistance is not yet solved. opening up began, China has attained sec- behalf of all members of the delegation In a certain country in the region, the trend ond place in the planet in terms of overall of the PLA, may I congratulate you on towards right-wing politics is becoming economic performance. At the same time, the successful opening of the conference, more apparent: the negation of the re- our country has a population of more than and sincerely thank the Russian side for sults of World War II, an embellishment 1.3 billion. An impressive national GDP all of your hard work in preparing for the of a history of aggression, the attempt- divided by the number of China’s people conference and ensuring excellent working ed violation of the postwar world order, yields a modest per-capita GDP number. In conditions. and the grave wounding of the feelings a country with a large population, it is not China and Russia are friendly neighbors. of people in countries affected by the Na- so easy to solve the problem of ensuring In May 2014, during the CICA summit and zis. Some other countries provoke debate the people’s prosperity. This is why it is so official visit of Russian President Vladimir on the issues of ownership of islands, important to create a peaceful environment Putin to China, he and Chinese President Xi and rights and interests on the sea. This conducive to growth. Jinping jointly participated in the opening greatly threatens stability in the region. China’s economic and social progress is ceremony of Sino-Russian naval exercises. This year, Afghanistan is in an important achieved thanks precisely to continuous This testifies to the determination and will transitional period. After the withdrawal adherence to peaceful growth. On the of the armies of the two countries to jointly of international forces from the country, it one hand, China’s development depends counteract new threats and challenges, faces a serious test of the degree to which on peace in the world, and on the other, and to ensure the security and stability it can effect a politically and economically China’s development contributes to peace of our regions. secure transition. The process of peaceful around the world. This path, emanating The advancement of economic globalization settlement in Syria is difficult and tortuous; from ideas that are at the root of Chinese is occurring apace. The interconnected- it will take vast efforts to find a broadly civilization, takes into account the con- ness and interaction of different nations, accepted path. cepts and conditions for achieving growth regimes, and civilizations are growing more The situation in Ukraine is worrying, as the in our country, and global growth trends. and more intimate. No country can devel- Ukrainian crisis has complex historical and China firmly adheres to a defensive military op — and especially provide for its own contemporary reasons. The only way of policy. The history of China and its army security — without cooperation with other defusing a complex situation is dialogue speak to the fact that the main goals of countries. The threats to international and negotiations. China hopes that all strengthening the defense infrastructure security affect the interests of various parties will seek comprehensive political are to protect the sovereignty, security, and parties. Given this, holding a Conference solutions to this crisis on the basis of territorial integrity — and to ensure the of Ministries of Defense that allows for the Geneva accords, in order to achieve peaceful growth and development — of a 37 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

country, as well as to safeguard people’s China calls for a new concept of security in operation between China and European peaceful lives and toil. A military policy of Asia: based on comprehensive, common, countries. Since the establishment of a defensive nature and the path of peaceful prolonged, and uninterrupted security. the SCO, cooperation in the spheres of growth are linked by bonds of spiritual Security is a comprehensive concept which politics, security, economic and humani- kinship, and the Chinese army acts as an includes not only military security, but also tarian affairs has made significant strides instrument to ensure peace in the world. economic security, information security, en- and has also played an active role in the Of course, China firmly protects its sover- ergy security, space security, etc. Security cause of peace, security, and stability in eignty, security, and development inter- should be effected via equal-rights-based the world, promoting common growth ests. Let no nation think that China would cooperation, and should be of collective and development. allow or leave unanswered the results of use to all stakeholders, not something At present, the Chinese people are fight- its sovereignty, security or development that is one-sided. ing for the implementation of a great interests being violated. As one of the permanent members of the dream — the renaissance of all Chinese China has consistently promoted global UN Security Council, China unswervingly people. To realize this dream, we have growth. All countries and their interests adheres to the basic principles and pro- started on a new course of comprehen- are closely linked in today’s world, and a visions of the UN Charter, protects its sive reform, which should liberate the community emerges with a common desti- authority and role in international affairs, thought process, foster productive forc- ny, which can be described thus, “I am part actively participates in tasks such as es, and promote harmony and stability of you, and you are part of me”. China will peacekeeping missions, the fight against among all people. For the countries of continue to embody the spirit of openness, piracy, joint convoys, etc. China has con- the world these are not challenges, but to strive to implement the development of sistently adhered to the integration of opportunities. China’s development will mutually beneficial cooperation, to seek Europe, and we hope that the EU plays a contribute greatly to global development and expand upon common interests with all constructive role in international affairs, and peace on Earth. China is ready to be countries. Through its own growth, China and is willing to continue to deepen this in the same boat with all the peace-lov- will promote worldwide development, comprehensive strategic partnership in ing peoples of the world, and to create and, in turn, greater benefit for its people. order to advance friendly military co- a brilliant future together.

38 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

A. K. BISHNOI Deputy Minister of Defense of the Republic of India

INDIA AND REGIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES

question — that of the continuing im- in Afghanistan, and we will continue our pact of terrorism on the peace, stability, endeavor to assist and partner with the and security of our region in particular. Afghan government and people in their There is scarcely a country represent- nation-building efforts. ed here that has not experienced this kind of terrorism. India has been urging Security Issues in the Asia-Pacific that the global regime against terror- The Asia-Pacific region is witnessing in- ism needs to be standard, and that the creasing contestations, as reflected in global community needs to take strong power rivalries, new military postures, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed action to uproot and dismantle terrorist and territorial disputes. All of it has ag- Forces of the Russian Federation Valery sanctuaries, safe havens, and networks gravated the security situation in this Gerasimov, Deputy Minister of Defense of of financial and logistics support to such region. Against this backdrop, the emer- the Russian Federation Anatoly Antonov, groups and elements. gence of multilateral forums, such as let me begin by conveying the felicita- We have repeatedly stressed that no East-Asia Summit, ERF, and the ADMM- tions and good wishes of the Ministry of country should allow its territory to be Plus, provide an opportunity to address Defense on the convening of the Moscow used by terrorist groups against any other contentious issues through dialogue and Conference on International Security. It country. There is a need for a true consen- consensus. India supports initiatives to is therefore my privilege to be represent- sus and commitment on this and a strong build inclusive security architectures, ing the Ministry of Defense of India here international pressure to be built up to which will foster a spirit of consensus on today. We thank you for the invitation enforce this. As nations increasingly face all issues that have common resonance. and are honored to be present here to the threats posed by non-state actors We have consistently opposed the use deliberate with our colleagues the major and a wide spectrum of conventional and or threat of use of force, and hope that security challenges facing the region and non-conventional security challenges, parties to disputes should work towards the world and to discuss the way forward. there is need for greater cooperation and the peaceful resolution of disputes in We all recognize that at the present time, useful confidence building. accordance with international law. global and regional peace and stability In this connection, I would like to men- India is also concerned by the prolifera- are being shaped by a number of dynamic tion Afghanistan. Peace and stability tions of weapons of mass destruction in factors. Major geopolitical and economic in Afghanistan and the prosperity and the region, and particularly in the con- developments are transforming the global development of its people have been text of the DPRK’s nuclear program. We security scenario into one of uncertain- adversely affected by the activities of support the denuclearization of the Ko- ty and volatility. Over the past decade, terrorists functioning from sanctuaries rean Peninsula and the resumption of the globalization has built complex economic and safe havens beyond Afghan borders. Six-Party talks. West Asia continues to interdependencies amongst states, even This year, we will see many challenges in face volatility and instability in the wake while concurrently fostering rivalries in Afghanistan — in terms of the political of developments brought about by the the security domain. This interdependence transition, drawdown of international so-called “Arab Spring”. The number of also creates opportunities for fostering combat forces, and the full burden of na- non-state actors has mushroomed, and stability. However, in the face of eco- tional security transferring to the Afghan sectarian fault lines have deepened in nomic crisis, the overhang of challenges security forces. The international commu- the region, thereby disturbing the sta- to national, regional, and global security nity, and we in the region, should continue bility and internal cohesion of various needs to be negotiated carefully and our efforts to assist the government of countries in the region. India supported cautiously in order to be able to steer Afghanistan to manage this transition in calls for the stopping of violence and the primary objectives of national, social, any manner in which it seeks. India has resolution of conflicts through political and economic development. enjoyed traditional brotherly relations means. Continuing the turmoil in West with Afghanistan and with the Afghan Asia could not only imperil energy se- Threat of Afghan Terrorism people and is also profoundly affected by curity, but also become a crucible for In terms of the magnitude of the chal- developments in Afghanistan. We have radicalism, terrorism, arms proliferation, lenges, the most serious is — without been contributing to reconstruction efforts and sectarian conflict that could touch 39 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

countries beyond the region. prosperity, and this calls for all nations dialogue, for the sharing of information and The maritime domain has been a source to act in accordance with the accepted experience, and for confidence building, of multiple security concerns arising out principles. is even more important. The convening of of factors like piracy, terrorism, human As factors of instability and conflict contin- this security conference is, in that sense, trafficking, and competition over maritime ue to challenge us and pose impediments a timely initiative, which has enabled us resources. Maintaining the security of the to the larger national development chal- to gather here today to share views and sea lanes and upholding the freedom of lenges that we seek to address, to ensure enhance mutual understanding on the navigation are vital to our security and the prosperity of our people, the need for important challenges of our time.

40 GLOBAL SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY

41 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel PANEL DISCUSSION Finding ways of stabilization in the Middle East and North Africa

42 ОБЗОР КОНФЕРЕНЦИИ

43 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

MODERATOR

V. V. NAUMKIN Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies

SPEAKERS

GENERAL V. B. ZARUDNITSKY Chief, Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

AMBASSADOR M. L. BOGDANOV Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

CORPS GENERAL M. ABDUL WAHAB SHAWA Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Syrian Arab Republic

U. DEKEL Deputy Director of the Institute for National Security Studies, State of Israel

BRIGADIER GENERAL E. FADEL Chief, Lebanese Army Military Intelligence and Counterintelligence

K. BARZEGAR Director of the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies, Islamic Republic of Iran

44 FINDING WAYS OF STABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

GENERAL V. B. ZARUDNITSKY Chief, Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

The wave of “color revolutions” has is openly used to put it under pressure. troops and helping the opposition forces caused major changes in world politics This pressure aims to prevent the use of and mercenary detachments to seize and the balance of forces in the world the state’s law-enforcement agencies to power. and the regions. There has been a real restore law and order. In this connection, it would be incorrect to change in the nature of military threats Next, as the opposition rolls out military present the military actions that are the and challenges to security, as well as in action against government troops, for- consequence of “color revolutions” solely the ways and means of countering them. eign states provide military and economic as an internal armed conflict. The West views “color revolutions” as support to the insurgents. Behind oppositionist insurgents there are a means of expanding democracy, con- For example, the war in Syria has been always the military and economic poten- sisting of the non-violent overthrow of going on for nearly three years. Through- tial and financial resources of countries “undemocratic” regimes. out that time armed opposition detach- with an interest in removing a regime they However, a military analysis of the events ments and mercenary formations have don’t like. that have occurred in the Middle East been constantly supplied from abroad Another reason to reject the peaceful and and North Africa makes it possible to with ammunition, weapons and other non-violent nature of “color revolutions” is claim the reverse — that military force materiel required to wage war. It may that the condition of countries that have is an inalienable feature of “color revo- only be surmised how many countries’ suffered military aggression as classically lutions”. It is present at every stage of economies are working to further this understood and of countries experiencing the escalation of the “revolution” and the war. “color revolutions” is almost identical. domestic national conflict it provokes. Subsequently, the coalition of countries Indeed, in the classical understanding, the From the beginning, the military potential taking part in the overthrow of a legiti- aims of war by one state against another, of the coalition of countries behind the mate government may conduct a military as a rule, are as follows: to change the overthrow of an undesirable government operation aimed at defeating government military and political leadership of the

Aims of aggression 1. To change the military and political leadership of the target country and to draw it into the intended Classical sphere of influence Aggression in the form aggression 2. To decrease its economic and military potential of a “color revolution” 3. To impose the aggressor’s military presence 4. To gain access to the resources of the defeated country

Outcome 1. Never-ending civil war, terrorism 2. Decreased status of the country in the region and the world 3. Partial loss of control over the territory 4. Ruined economy, lost control over the economic resources 5. 15-20-year setback in the development of the country

Aims of Aggression

45 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

Comparative Analysis

CLASSICAL AGGRESSION IN THE FORM OF A “COLOR AGGRESSION REVOLUTION”

Subjects of Confrontation Armed forces of the Government forces against the opposition belligerent states forces backed by foreign armed forces Enemy Identity Adversary (aggressor) is Adversary (aggressor) is not evident, evident sides with one of the parties to the conflict Scope of Hostilities Front and rear areas are Front and rear areas are non-existent, existent, hostilities along hostilities over the entire territory of the the directions country Actions of the nation Consolidation in the face Split and mutual destruction suffering aggression of the external aggression Resources spent by Relatively high Relatively low aggressor to achieve its aims

country subjected to aggression and to to bring down a state from within than to The countries that fall prey to aggression draw it into the aggressor’s sphere of in- subdue it by force of arms. are defeated often without even knowing fluence, to reduce its economic and military The engine of aggression consists of the who the aggressor is, and their develop- potential, to impose the aggressor’s mil- aggressor state (or coalition of countries) ment is set back 15-20 years. itary presence, and to give the aggressor dividing its prey from within. To achieve There is a dual nature to the hostilities unimpeded access to the resources of the this, existing internal disagreements are conducted as part of “color revolutions”. defeated country. orchestrated and kindled in every possible On the one hand, they have innate features If we look at the countries where “color way, no matter what kind they are — eth- of classical warfare. So, hostilities in Libya revolutions” have won the day, it is scarce- nic, religious, social or territorial. Thereaf- amounted to a modern military operation. ly possible to say that political regime ter, these disagreements are transformed It comprised broad-based action by armed change has put them on the road to pros- into open confrontation between opposition opposition formations, air strikes, missile perity and stability, or that regional secu- forces and the government. Should the strikes, naval action, and action by the rity has been substantially consolidated. ruling regime attempt to retain power, the special operations forces of the states As a result, we are seeing countries rent next phase will be civil war. involved. asunder by internal disagreements, their The insidiousness of “color revolutions” lies Hostilities occurred in all environments: on peoples fragmented, an endless series in the fact that the country that is prey to land, in the air and at sea, as well in the of coups, a drastic rise in criminality, and aggression which is led and supported from information space and cyberspace. There heightened terrorist activity. Politically, outside puts itself to death. In the course was widespread use of space power and they are unstable and dependent, and their of domestic armed conflict the state’s hu- drones. prospects for economic development are man resources are destroyed, its economy It must also be noted that all actions by increasingly doubtful. ruined, and its political independence lost. armed insurgent detachments, tactical air Thus, “color revolutions”, particularly in the The population of the country prey to ag- strikes and precision missile strikes were format applied in Libya and now in Syria, gression becomes completely disorientated organized, coordinated and balanced in amount to masked aggression using new in terms of its “us and them” frame of terms of objectives, missions, times, and technologies to defeat undesirable states references. Instead of uniting in the face of targets. and remove them from the political arena. external aggression, part of the population As the head of the military command au- The technologies of “color revolutions” enters the field against another part of its thority responsible for Russia’s force em- are based on the fact that the state is own people. ployment planning, I am able to say that morally vulnerable in today’s era of glo- Meanwhile, the aggressor takes the role organizing action by such disparate forces, balization. Its meaning and authority have of “protector” of one side in the internal including air and naval forces, special op- been weakened. As a result, it is easier conflict it has engineered. erations forces, opposition detachments, 46 FINDING WAYS OF STABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

OAP Command Black Sea Rome

Napule

AF Task Force around 300 aircraſt

Izmir

Coalition Nations

Navy Task Force NATO non-NATO around 40 warships 4 Landing Ships 1. Belgium 1. Jordan Mediterranean Sea 2. Bulgaria 2. Qatar 3. UK 3. UAE Tripoli Benghazi 4. Greece 4. Sweden 5. Denmark 6. Spain Joint Committee Misurata defense of Libya 7. Italy 8. Canada 9. Netherlands Area of activity 10. Norway of Western special 11. Romania forces and secret service agents 12. USA 13. Turkey 14. France Aggression against Libya gangs and private military companies, is law and acquire the nature of a war without affairs of another to be concealed. In these a highly complex matter. rules. “Color revolutions” create condi- conditions, there is an increase in the role It is only possible for a highly trained com- tions in which the rules of international of special operations forces performing mand authority with state-of-the-art tech- law which regulate warfare need not be sabotage and reconnaissance missions. nical capability and planning experience. observed. This is because armed opposition Moreover, there is extensive involvement On the other hand, the hostilities brought and mercenary formations are not state of private military companies posing as about by “color revolutions” differ signifi- formations and are therefore outside the mercenary formations. I would point out cantly from those of classical hostilities. I bounds of law and assume no liability for that the military actions they conduct are am going to focus on these specifics. infringements of international law. Failure distinguished by indiscriminate resources Above all, in these hostilities the boundary to comply with the laws and customs of and the great number of civilians killed between defense and attack, strategy and war make it extremely cruel and ruthless. or wounded. tactics is erased. There is no front or rear. A fourth specific feature is the criminali- Altogether it has to be said that wars Military actions unfold not in a defined zation of warfare. Criminal structures initiated as part of “color revolutions” are area or specific direction but across the take an active part in this. Since there is waged by the very basest methods. From country’s entire territory according to the impunity and there are no holds barred, the point of view of international law and network principle. Rather than the classical military action is conducted by criminal morality, they are more appropriate to concentration of forces on the main axis, and terrorist methods. Moreover, ter- the Middle Ages than the 21st century. regular troops are forced to conduct mil- ror acquires mass proportions. Religious Everyone is aware of this. Nevertheless, itary action in dispersed tactical groups, treasures are systematically and de- the geography of “color revolutions” is to use the types and methods of action liberately plundered and cultural and predicted to expand. They enable regional used by the insurgents, and to adjust their historical monuments destroyed. This powers to be crushed in pursuit of political organizational structure. directly facilitates the destruction of and economic objectives with a minimal Another specific feature is that hostilities the people’s national identity and their drain on resources and limited use of the are mainly conducted in residential ar- historical memory. aggressor’s armed forces. eas. Mercenary detachments and gangs The final specific feature lies in the exten- The key question is: in what direction will deliberately use the civilian population sive use of private military formations and “color revolutions” travel next? Where will as a “human shield”, resulting in heavy special operations forces. When the tech- the “arc of instability” lie and who will casualties among civilians who are not nologies of “color revolutions” are used it embrace? In other words, who’s next? involved in the conflict. to wage war on states, the need arises “Color revolutions” are most likely in eco- A third specific feature is that hostilities for military formations which enable the nomically weak states where there are go beyond the framework of humanitarian explicit intervention by one state in the serious social conflicts. 47 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

No boundaries between defensive and offensive operations, strategy and tactics, front and rear. Network-like hostilities over the entire territory Hostilities are held mainly of the country in populated areas

Total illegitimacy of hostilities. Criminalization of war. Illegitimacy of war makes it much more Impunity and permissiveness lead to ruthless and brutal, brings it beyond the Features of hostilities criminal and terrorist tactics prevailing prohibitions imposed by the humanitarian law during “color revolutions” in the hostilities. Terror becomes with regard to the prisoners-of-war, wounded widespread. and civilians.

Wide application of private military companies. Their hostilities are characterized by indiscrimi- nate use of force and numerous civilian casualties.

Features of Hostilities

The main criterion for deciding the next in countries whose destabilization would that at this conference we have the target for the export of a “color revo- make it possible to change the balance chance to hear a variety of views on the lution” is the national interests of the of power in a region. role of “color revolutions” in international specific countries behind the next coup. In conclusion, I would like to note that life and their influence on global and Consequently, revolutions are, as a rule, “color revolutions” are a relatively new regional security. organized in countries rich in natural phenomenon in international life. They Ultimately, this will promote the growth resources; in countries with an impor- require comprehensive study, including of understanding and trust between the tant strategic position in a region and political and military analysis. countries represented by the conference pursuing a relatively independent policy; It is extremely valuable in this respect participants.

48 FINDING WAYS OF STABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

AMBASSADOR M. L. BOGDANOV Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

Vitaliy Vyacheslavovich, ladies and gentle- forces, though a major role was played include people of Russian descent. A men, colleagues, it is difficult, of course, to by contemporary media, the Internet and mass exodus from Syria of various ethnic set out and shed light on all the problems social networks. At the same time, it can- and religious minorities, Christians above experienced by a region, in this case, the not be ruled out that certain influential all, is under way. Middle East and North Africa, in only 10 international players and transnational The echo of the Syrian conflict is promot- minutes. Certain key problems have in power centers facilitated events taking ing the growth of religious intolerance in any case been touched upon by Russian a negative turn. Of course, I think that is Lebanon and other countries in the Middle Federation Foreign Minister Sergey Viktor- what happened. Popular mass protest East. We take as a starting point the fact ovich Lavrov in his speech. I will, however, very rapidly led to the situation getting that the repercussions of the ongoing po- endeavor to single out some, perhaps, key out of control, to upsurges of violence and litical and social upheavals in the Middle points. I am aware that we will perhaps the coming to power of Islamist organiza- East will continue to be felt for a long be able to continue setting out the details tions. It can be said, however, that none time. Taking this into account, Russian during questions and answers. As has of the post-revolutionary countries has diplomacy is painstakingly working to already been said here, however, for more moved closer to resolving the deep-rooted minimize its negative impacts both for our than three years, complex transformational problems that caused these dramatic country and for the whole international processes have been under way in the vast transformations. The wave of revolutions community, including the Arab region itself. geopolitical space of the Middle East and added new challenges to previous conflict Understandably, in recent years, we have North Africa. There are a whole series of situations which had built up over dec- mainly focused on channeling the situation objective causes. ades. Specifically, the process of changing towards a political and diplomatic settle- authoritarian regimes in the Middle East ment and preventing coercive intervention Causes and Conditions of Socio- undermined the regional security system. in events in Syria. Political Changes in the Middle Gray zones arose in various parts of the A real threat of outside intervention arose East region, with fighters and weapons freely in connection with the incidents of Au- Already by the start of the 21-st centu- moving to and fro. Ethnic and religious gust 21, 2013, when chemical weapons ry it was clear that the previous mod- relations became noticeably strained. were used in a south-eastern suburb of el of development for societies in the The growing tension between Sunnis and Damascus. The Russian side exerted vig- Middle East had run its course. Signs Shias, fed by events in Syria, is becoming orous efforts to prevent any attempts to of stagnation were increasingly clear in particularly resonant. exploit this episode as grounds for mili- the Arab countries. Opposition parties tary intervention in the Syrian conflict. A and the institutions of civil society had Syrian Conflict key milestone was the conversation that occupied marginal positions in recent Certain influential media, particularly but took place on the sidelines of the G20 years. Economic life was imprisoned by not solely in the West, present the crisis summit in St Petersburg in September last administrative-command mechanisms in the Syrian Arab Republic as the Sunni year between Russian President Vladimir and state-of-the-art knowledge-intensive majority’s fight for democracy against the Vladimirovich Putin and U.S. President industries had not been developed. The ruling Alawite minority. In actual fact, Barack Obama, which set the objective middle class was increasingly disillusioned we can see that terrorist groups, with of placing Syria’s chemical arsenal under with the outlook for social and political connections to Al Qaida, such as Jabhat international control and its subsequent processes. Demographic transitions were al-Nusrah, the Islamic State of Iraq and destruction. of major significance. These factors were the Levant, and many more, are active On September 10 last year, during a visit to reinforced by the consequences of the on Syrian territory. It is extremists who Moscow, the Syrian Arab Republic’s foreign global financial and economic crisis. De- are to blame for disruptions to humani- minister, Walid Muallem, officially confirmed spite these trends, the social explosion tarian aid supplies. The threat they pose support for the initiative. In furtherance of came as a surprise in many ways both to the good running of the operations our proposals, talks were held in Geneva to representatives of the ruling elites to remove Syrian chemical weapons is in September last year by Sergey Viktor- and to opposition leaders. In the opening one of the factors affecting the pace of ovich Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State phase of events in Egypt and Tunisia, their withdrawal from the country. The John Kerry, which elaborated a framework the revolution had no guiding political radical elements fighting in Syria also accord whereby all components of Syria’s 49 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

chemical weapons program would be listed policy, beginning from the premise that of May this year. Against this background, and destroyed by July 1, 2014. it is essential to maintain Syria’s state there is grave concern at the escalation of Following a tense dialogue with the Amer- institutions. The deterioration of state tension in Benghazi on May 16, which saw icans, the relevant decisions of the Or- structures and its exacerbation will only large-scale military action between local ganization for the Prohibition of Chemical worsen the situation in the country. military formations, using heavy military Weapons were adopted, as was UN Securi- hardware, artillery and aviation. There ty Council Resolution 2118. Largely thanks Political Processes in the Arab are reports of dozens killed and hundreds to our efforts to defuse the Syrian crisis, Republic of Egypt wounded. On May 18, military clashes also an international conference on Syria got We are not decreasing our focus on the occurred in Tripoli. Libya’s General National off the ground in Montreux on January 22 developing situation in the friendly country Council suspended work as a result of an this year and two days later inter-Syrian of Egypt. We support the Egyptian lead- armed attack. We believe it is essential to talks began in Geneva. You know that ership’s intent consistently to implement strengthen international support for Libya only the second round of these talks has the road map for a political process in the with the aim of normalizing the country’s been held to date. Despite the accords Arab Republic of Egypt. We hope that the domestic political situation and moving reached between Syrian government and forthcoming presidential and parliamentary the political process forward. On these opposition delegations on the agenda for elections will make it possible to create grounds, we played an active part in the the third round, it has not yet been possible effectively functioning institutions of power Rome conference on Libya on March 6, to resume the Geneva talks. and to bolster the country’s national unity which sent the Libyans a clear signal of Meanwhile, as we know, the Syrian gov- on a platform of implementing programs the world community’s willingness to help ernment in Damascus is willing to continue for the social and economic modernization them resolve their urgent issues. the dialogue but the opposition delegation of Egyptian society. We are committed to to Geneva must acquire a more repre- Egypt continuing to play a stabilizing role Israeli-Palestinian Conflict sentative character in order to create the in the Middle East and in the Arab and Settlement conditions for the negotiation process to Islamic world as a whole and contributing We are convinced of the need for an ap- move forward. The Syrian opposition must to strengthening regional security and propriate response to the new challenges be genuinely focused on political solutions stability. We support Cairo’s antiterrorist and threats emerging from the Middle rather than endlessly asking its foreign activities, including its efforts to normalize East area, and that these must in no way sponsors to supply increasingly dangerous the situation in the Sinai Peninsula. obscure efforts to resolve long-standing types of weapons. regional conflicts and the Arab-Israeli On May 13 this year, UN Secretary-General Libyan Crisis conflict above all. In the summer of last Ban Ki-moon accepted the resignation of The situation in Libya is a striking example year, Russia gave its active backing to Special Envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahi- of an ill-considered policy by NATO coun- the resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli mi. We in Moscow pay due credit to the tries. As a result of the bloody civil conflict talks, which went on until April this year. efforts made by this respected Algerian that was the consequence of illegal actions Unfortunately, they achieved no positive diplomat to resolve the Syrian crisis. We by foreign players, the country’s state ad- results. Nor was it possible to narrow are ready to continue paying the utmost ministration has been completely disman- the gaps in the positions of the Pales- attention to humanitarian problems in the tled, its army and law-enforcement forces tinians and Israelis. There was a lack of context of the Syrian crisis. On more than destroyed and the balance of inter-tribal understanding on almost all points: the one occasion, special Russian Emergency relations disturbed. The government does borders of a future Palestinian state, se- Ministry flights to the Syrian Arab Republic not currently control the situation in the curity, the status of Jerusalem, refugees, and neighboring countries have delivered greater part of the country’s territory and and water resources. The Israelis were freight and humanitarian assistance for is unable to make the former revolutionary categorical about maintaining their, es- Syrian citizens and Syrian refugees in the brigades, which are increasingly resorting sentially, unlimited military presence in region. We also believe it is essential to to the use of force to achieve their objec- the Jordan Valley even after the signing support the practice of local truces in tives, surrender their weapons. In recent of an eventual peace agreement. Lastly, Syria as an important prologue to a sub- years, there has been a massive rise in the they have become particularly insistent sequent and comprehensive ceasefire. crime rate, terrorist threats have intensified in their demand that the Palestinians rec- Russian diplomacy has made consider- and the problem of safeguarding Libya’s ognize the so-called Jewish character of able efforts to achieve accords between weapons is unresolved. There is disarray the state of Israel. Ongoing construction the Syrian authorities and the opposition in the government itself. The question of in the occupied Palestinian territories se- on humanitarian access to areas held by a successor to Prime Minister Ali Zeidan riously blighted the situation at the talks. fighters or blocked by government troops, has not been resolved since his forced A few days before the talks were due to particularly in Homs in February this year, resignation in March this year. Many Lib- end, the Israel side decided to suspend and to evacuate civilians. With regard to yan forces dispute the legitimacy of par- them, linking this among other things to the forthcoming Syrian presidential elec- liament’s election of the so-called new Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s tions on June 3, we are pursuing our own Prime Minister, Maiteg, at the beginning request to be party to a number of inter- 50 FINDING WAYS OF STABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

national treaties and conventions, as well development of the situation regarding Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society, as to make progress towards Palestinian the Palestinian-Israeli talks in the long led by Sergey Vladimirovich Stepashin, unity. In this context, Mahmoud Abbas’s haul, it is vitally important at the present visited the Vatican at the end of Febru- statement at a sitting of the Palestine dramatic moment not to allow the situation ary this year. The contacts they made, Liberation Organization’s Central Council to be aggravated and to keep the two- including a brief conversation with the in Ramallah on April 26, that the future state solution afloat. This requires that the pontiff, demonstrated the closeness of Palestinian technocratic government will sides refrain from unilateral measures that our approaches. They agreed to coop- be committed to the principles of rejecting could further worsen the state of affairs. eration with the Vatican in defending violence and recognizing the state of Israel Primarily, this relates to Israeli settlement the human rights of Christians in the and to earlier Middle East settlement activities and Tel Aviv’s freeze on customs Middle East. Syrian Christians are in a agreements, appears significant. duties and tax receipts owed to the Pal- particularly complex position. Because It is already known that on April 22, during estinians. Russia will continue working to of the ongoing civil war, before which a visit to the Gaza Strip, a PLO delegation, restore the peace process both through around two million Christians lived in made up primarily of Fatah and other Pal- bilateral channels and at international that country, up to half a million of estinian groups, reached an understanding forums, above all within the format of their number have been forced to leave with Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Hamas the Middle East “quartet” of international their places of residence. A considerable government of the Gaza Strip, on forming mediators. We are seeing a certain increase number of churches and monasteries a technocratic government. These accords in quartet activities and, on May 20, the belonging to the various Christian de- were later confirmed when Mahmoud Abbas latest session took place in Brussels at nominations have been destroyed or met representative of the Hamas polit- the level of the quartet’s special envoys. damaged. There have been attacks on ical bureau Khaled Meshaal in Doha. As a number of holy places common to all it happened, I was in the Qatari capital Christians in the Middle East Christians, including the town of Ma- at that time and met both Palestinian In conclusion, I would like to touch on loula, home to almost the only people leaders. We got the impression that they the important topic of the position of for whom the Aramaic spoken by Christ were both entirely serious in their intent to Christians in the Middle East. The de- remains a living language. implement the inter-Palestinian accords. terioration in their situation is basi- Russia is engaged in complex, multi- It is possible that the concrete results of cally connected to the chaos arising faceted work to improve the position this process will soon be visible. Moscow as events get out of hand in the “Arab of Christians in the Middle East and has always proceeded on the basis that, Spring” states and the entry of radi- North Africa. Particular emphasis is without consolidating Palestinian ranks cally inclined Islamist forces into the being given to drawing the international on the platform of the PLO and the Arab political arena. The meeting of Russian community’s attention to the complex Peace Initiative, it will not be possible to President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin situation in which Middle Eastern Chris- achieve the legitimate aspirations of the and Pope Francis in November last year tians find themselves and to the need to Palestinian people or a just and lasting helped place this issue more firmly on take steps to counter Christianophobia, settlement of the Palestinian problem. the international agenda. In furtherance guarantee religious freedom and develop As for the immediate prospects for the of these ideas, a delegation from the an international dialogue.

51 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

CORPS GENERAL M. ABDUL WAHAB SHAWA Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Syrian Arab Republic

This conference takes place in excep- along with instructions to carry out the ternational community. On this basis, the tional, very challenging circumstances most savage criminal acts against the Russian Federation adopted a number of that threaten international security and Syrian people and the Syrian state. measures; however, in most cases, the re- stability. The threat is the unprecedented Terrorism is growing at an increasing pace, action of Western countries to such meas- growth of terrorism. Terrorism is a threat having reached unprecedented proportions. ures by the Russian Federation to combat to all countries without exception, but in Thousands of intentional attacks using terrorism was completely negative. On the our region it takes a more acute, danger- mortar shells and car bombs have been contrary, they extended the NATO zone to ous, and bloody form, which threatens perpetrated against residential areas, the East, committed aggression against not only the security of our countries schools, hospitals, Islamic and Christian Yugoslavia and also supported terrorism and people, but also their very existence. religious sites. In addition, gangs massa- in the Caucasus. Certain officials in London Our countries are experiencing a rise in cre civilians every day around their home and Washington organized meetings with extremist terrorist ideology and unprec- bases simply because they have different Chechen terrorists and openly conducted edented growth in the number of criminal outlooks on the world. negotiations with them. These same people gangs and organizations fully support- Despite the cruelty and crimes to which are now trying to spread confusion and ed by a number of Arab, regional, and we have been subjected for more than instability in Ukraine by attempting to Western governments, which carry out three years, the Syrian leadership has interfere in its internal affairs and promote the recruitment and training of terror- been and continues to make huge efforts, discord and strife among the fellow citi- ist groups to be used as tools for the carrying on full cooperation with all parties zens of a single state — going as far as destruction of states and overthrow of interested in finding the sort of political fomenting a civil war in that country. Yet regimes espousing different political and solution to the crisis in Syria that would all the above did not distract our Russian ideological beliefs. meet the aspirations of our people and friends from their continued determination Perhaps the most striking example of this would not be contrary to our sovereignty to focus all efforts on fighting and routing is what is happening in Syria — an Arab and independence. terrorism. country that was a paragon of security Hence our participation in the second Ge- The countries of the colonial West-part- and stability, as well as of the coexistence neva Conference, where we confirmed the ners in the development of terrorism, have of different various religious communi- need to respect the points of the first Ge- recently realized that the terrorism they ties; a country which for more than three neva Conference, and especially the fight created yesterday, the same one they years now has been subjected to the most against terrorism. However, countries that are supporting these days in Syria, will brutal war of aggression in the history of support terrorism in Syria have rejected affect them in the future. This much has mankind. The reason for this aggression a political solution, demanding that the been stated by these countries’ intelli- is her failure to accede to American and criminal gangs escalate the conflict. The gence agencies, which have warned of the Zionist dictates, and her commitment to only choice for our army and our security dangers of terrorism in Syria, expressing an independent position, which has led apparatus was to fulfill their constitutional fear of the return of foreign terrorists to to the decision to overthrow her at any duty to protect the people by completely the countries from whence they came, cost. As a result of all this, a vast con- defeating terrorists, wherever in Syria they subsequently committing terrorist acts spiracy and cruel aggression have been might be. Terrorism recognizes no faith, no in those countries. This made a number perpetrated against my country, which is identity, no borders; it multiplies, and, if it of these countries, particularly in Eu- subjected to a comprehensive military, hit Syria today, tomorrow it may pounce rope, take harsh measures to prevent the political, economic, and media war on the on other states — its threat is universal. return of these criminals, and to arrest part of governments and organizations This is the essence of terrorism. and strip them of their citizenship should that disburse funds to support this unjust To the friendly Russian Federation belongs they return. war against our people. the merit of understanding and determin- Before such an increasing threat of tak- Criminals have been drawn from more ing the nature and dangers of terrorism. firist terrorism in Syria, international and than 84 countries, and then transported, She has always said and says still that regional cooperation to combat and elim- with weapons, to Syria across the borders terrorism threatens all, and that the fight inate terrorism is inevitable. It requires: of neighboring countries, which provided against and victory over it is only possible • The adoption of punitive measures them with every kind of help and support, by combining the efforts of the entire in- against state sponsors of terrorism in 52 FINDING WAYS OF STABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Syria, pursuant to relevant resolutions Aggressors against the Syrian govern- Western draft resolutions aimed at the on counter-terrorism; ment thought that they would be able destruction of Syria and the overthrow • The closing by all neighboring countries to overthrow it in a short time due to of Syrian government. These positions of their borders with Syria when the massacres they have committed and will remain forever in the memory of our terrorists are on the move locally, and are perpetrating still, due to destructive people. With this support from you, our the adoption of measures to prohibit and subversive action. But they faced the dear friends, our army and our people their accommodation and the transfer resistance of our people and our brave were able to repulse the terrorists and of arms and funds to terrorists into army, as well as the positions of friendly their supporters, and to expose their Syrian territory; countries, those on Syria’s side, helping plans, causing their defeat. • The termination of instances of an it find a way out of the crisis. These Our army continues to stand firm in the information campaign against Syria and States are the Russian Federation, the face of terrorism, and will do so until the closing of all media that support the People’s Republic of China, the Islamic victory is achieved for Syria. Syria’s vic- takfirist extremist ideology of terrorism; Republic of Iran, Venezuela, and other tory is a victory for all the nations of the • The revision by states and organizations governments, organizations and society. world against terrorism and terrorists; of their positions against the Syrian Our people will never forget how the a victory for the values of justice and government, which would be a form Russian Federation and the People’s equality. We all need to support Syria in of contribution to the fight against Republic of China have repeatedly used its fight against the terrorists, in defense terrorism. the veto in the Security Council against of the whole world.

53 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

U. DEKEL Deputy Director of the Institute for National Security Studies, State of Israel

Israel is confronting a wide range of re- formula for a peace settlement is a demil- by a collection of terrorist groups and or- gional security challenges. I will focus on itarized Palestinian state that recognizes ganizations. In Syria today, there are some the four main ones: the Jewish state”, “two nation-states and 30,000 global jihadi activists. The country mutual recognition between them”, and has become a magnet for such activists Nuclear Iran “stable security arrangements with a long- from all over the world, but they will not The negotiations being conducted between term IDF presence along the Jordan River”. stay there forever. Al-Qaeda is gaining Iran and the P5+1 on an agreement to The last round of negotiations ended with- a foothold in western Iraq; in northern, prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear ca- out a breakthrough, with “blame games” eastern, and southern Syria; in Lebanon; pabilities have created an Iranian nuclear and mutual recriminations over the failure and in northern Jordan, and global jihadi program that can be illustrated as a “car of the process. This reinforces the need elements are gaining a foothold in the that has stopped but is parked near nuclear for Israel to formulate additional options Sinai, Gaza, and the West Bank. capability”. We must recognize the fact for the diplomatic process. In the event of The civil war in Syria is strengthening the that Iran is a nuclear threshold state, a Palestinian refusal to return to the nego- most dangerous trends in the region. It distance of months from the bomb. tiating table and to discuss a permanent is feeding the strength of radical Islam, In principle, Israel supports the interna- settlement or transitional arrangements, especially al-Qaeda, fueling the conflict tional community’s efforts to obtain a these options will enable Israel to shape between Sunnis and Shiites, and allow- permanent settlement that will move Iran a two-state reality independently, while ing Iran to expand its influence. This is a back to years away from military nuclear retaining freedom of action in security struggle whose end is not in sight and capability. However, if it becomes clear that matters. whose consequences are not yet clear. the interim agreement and the negotiations Societies in the Arab world will eventually for a permanent settlement are an Iranian Regional Environment be free, but they will become free grad- trick and are fraudulent, Israel expects the The situation in the Middle East is chang- ually and in their own time. This process United States and the rest of the world ing at a very rapid pace as a result of the has already begun, from the bottom up, to commit to using the option of force. In turmoil in the region. This requires a sys- and it is leading to political freedom. It order to persuade Iran to accept the terms temic, conceptual change in the approach cannot be accelerated by pushing Western of a tolerable agreement as well (which to security, since there are more arenas ideas on them from the outside. would allow it limited enrichment, to a and different challenges than in the past. low level of up to 5 per cent, with tight There are 170,000 missiles and rockets United States supervision and limitations on the number aimed at Israel. They are more dispersed, and the Middle East of centrifuges and the amount of material more accurate, and more lethal, and most Although the coming challenges for the stored in Iran), it must be convinced that are held by non-state actors who lack United States are centered in China and both the U.S. and Israeli military options state responsibility and do not operate in Asia due to the direct economic and se- are real. Russia has a crucial role to play, in accordance with international standards. curity implications, it is unlikely that the convincing Iran to abide by an agreement, The turmoil in the region is reflected in the United States will sever its ties with the rather than deceiving the world. In addi- loss of governability in various countries Middle East, since there is no one that tion, the “stick” of international sanctions and has given a greater voice to the Arab can step into its shoes in the region and must be used and should continue to be public. In addition, it has led to the free act as the “responsible adult”. controlled so as to prevent the sanctions migration of weapons and terrorists by Coordination between the United States from collapsing. virtue of porous borders. and Russia will likely bring about more Most of Israel’s borders today abut areas calm and stability in the region, as il- Palestinian Issue without governance or with weak govern- lustrated by the CW agreement in Syria, At the annual conference of the Institute ance. A conspicuous example is the border rather than mutually challenging each for National Security Studies, Prime Min- in the Golan Heights, which is no longer other’s policies. ister Netanyahu emphasized that “the controlled solely by the Syrian army, but

54 FINDING WAYS OF STABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

BRIGADIER GENERAL E. FADEL Chief, Lebanese Army Military Intelligence and Counterintelligence

Your Excellency Minister of Defense of the and a catalyst for civil conflicts in some Returnees from jihadi theaters pose a real Russian Federation Army General Sergey countries, as was the case in Lebanon and and direct threat to their home countries. Shoygu, your Excellency Chief of General Jordan. Palestinians’ rights to an inde- No country can defend itself against Al Staff of the Armed Forces and First Deputy pendent state and their right of return did Qaeda-style terrorism single-handedly. It Minister of Defense of the Russian Fed- not fade away with time. I have a profound is crucial that we converge our efforts and eration, Army General Valeriy Gerasimov, conviction that only a just solution to the elevate our cooperation and coordination dear honored colleagues, thank you for Palestinian issue will lead to resolving between competent agencies in our coun- presenting me with this opportunity to the Arab-Israeli conflict and achieving a tries to a whole new level in combating share with you, in my short intervention, comprehensive peace in the region. extremist Islamic terrorism. the LAF’s views toward a more stable Middle East and North Africa. Sunni-Shiite Conflict Uprisings While admitting that this is a very broad This is a serious threat, not only to region- Volumes have been written and said about and encompassing topic that could not al security but to international security uprisings across MENA, and about the be addressed in a holistic approach and as well. We see an utmost urgency to socio-economic and political dynamics in such a short time, however, I have no calm down this strife between Islam’s that drove peoples to revolt against gov- doubts that there is an awful lot of agree- two largest sects, which is felt in many ernments in different Arab countries, yet ment among us here that instability in the Arab countries and, increasingly, in the it will take some time before we fully Middle East and North Africa has had, and wider Muslim world. Politics and power understand the overwhelming change continues to have, an enduring negative struggles viewed through sectarian lenses, still unfolding, and the history still in the impact on the overall international security. in our region, are more likely interpreted making. However, and regardless of the Accordingly, I thought that it is of great in a negative way. More than ever before, twists and turns in the history and politics importance to identify the key problematic wise and responsible leaders, from both of each affected country, uprisings in gen- areas and issues in that region, and I hope sides, are required to preach tolerance, eral have highlighted and emphasized the that — by the end of this conference — promote peaceful inter-communal relations need for change that younger generations we will, altogether, have redefined those and seek rapprochement with each other. throughout the region are looking forward issues in light of the numerous events Indeed, this is a daunting challenge, but to have, mainly in: 1) more representative and changes of the past few years; and unless Sunnis and Shiites have a better governments, 2) prevalence of the rule of subsequently, we will all have a better common understanding of their past, it law, 3) socio-economic development, and 4) understanding of the overall situation; will be difficult to envision a better future functioning institutions that are relatively all in all, this could set forth better con- than their present. free of corruption and nepotism. Moreo- ditions for comprehensive approaches to ver, additional efforts need to be exerted the issues at stake. Extremist Islamic Terrorism by influential regional and international The key issues that I have chosen to speak The transnational threat of Al Qaeda’s players to encourage civil society, religious about are: the Palestinian Question, The decentralized network and its affiliates in tolerance, and the protection of religious Sunni-Shiite Conflict, Extremist Islamic MENA has been flourishing in an unprec- and ethnic minorities. Terrorism, and Uprisings. edented manner over the past few years, To recap, I have a deep conviction that particularly in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and North addressing the aforementioned issues Palestinian Question Africa. Large ungoverned areas in trou- accordingly among relevant states at the In May 2014 Palestinians worldwide, in- bled countries throughout the region are international, regional and sub-regional creasingly in the Diaspora, commemorated providing Al Qaeda affiliates with enough levels will yield encouraging and long-term the 66th anniversary of the Nakba, when space, time and resources to consolidate positive effects on regional and interna- hundreds of thousands of Palestinians their powers, and expand their geographic tional security and stability. were uprooted from their homeland. Un- strongholds. Such areas are turning into Finally, allow me to say that Lebanon is doubtedly, the Palestinian question was magnets attracting foreign fighters from all committed to being an effective partner at the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict; four corners of the world. Al Qaeda-inspired in countering the transnational threat of similarly, it was a root cause of instability terrorism is fueling the aforementioned terrorism, and to contributing its share in and turmoil in the Middle East in general, Sunni-Shiite conflict into a conflagration. this regard. 55 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

K. BARZEGAR Director of the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies, Islamic Republic of Iran

Ever since the Cold War ended, I think that the states, a state-centric characteristic. time we see the capability and capacities in the Middle East, the word “security” Security and stability are becoming very of regional cooperation being strengthened. has been regionalizing. That means that much important these days. There was This is a new thing coming from the “Arab the preservation of security in different some excitement at the beginning of the Spring’s” geopolitical impact. In terms regions somehow constitutes the word “Arab Spring”, but step-by-step we see of policy implications, I think this is very “security”. In that sense, I believe that that there is more focus on keeping the important, because it relates to the debate the “Arab Spring” is a turning point. If you state system in the region. about the presence or absence of regional consider the geopolitical implications of Perhaps this is for two reasons. First is actors in regional issues and the degree the “Arab Spring” on Middle East security, the disappointment of regional countries and the nature of foreign actors’ presence I would say that security and stability in regarding the role of foreign actors in in regional issues. the Middle East with the “Arab Spring” solving state problems in the region. I developments is in further regionalization. think nations are focusing on their own Consequences of the “Arab But why? I think there are three reasons. capability through regional cooperation. Spring” This is very important. We see how much Perhaps the dominant view in America is Causes of the Influence of the nations are trying to focus the power of that the United States must come to the “Arab Spring” on the Security of their own states and governments these region and try to preserve security and the Middle East days, despite the previous expectations stability in the region. But I think with First is the role of masses in the Arab that came from the “Arab Spring”. The the “Arab Spring” we see, day-by-day world. We have increased the role of the second issue here is the spread of ex- and step-by-step, that, by encouraging Arab public and masses in shaping the tremism and terrorism. This is important cooperation, we can better achieve regional geopolitical and security rivalries of states because everyone — every actor — is stability and security. I think that the crises these days. I think this is a new develop- worried about the civil war, the collapse of Egypt and Syria are good examples ment because, before that, we did not of the state system these days, because to describe the conceptualization I just have this element in shaping the foreign terrorists in nature are different; they are mentioned. policies of states. This is new — that the anti-nation-state, they are against political I think a state-centric situation is being Arab masses and the Arab Street are, in borders, they are against international strengthened, with the “Arab Spring” de- the realities on the ground, trying to shape rules and regulations. Of course, they are velopment, and after two or three years, I the politics of the Arab world. I think that monopolized and would like to hold all the think the key issues are still stability and this was not existent before the “Arab power; and, of course, they are ideological. security. Of course social contracts issues Spring”, because the situation was more These are against the state system. And are important, but, as we see in Egypt, impacted by the role of elites as well as this worries a lot of nations of the region people are again backing into a state-cen- the role of foreign actors. These elements and all our actors. I think the nations of tric situation with a more nationalistic and somehow shaped the geopolitical relations the region are trying to strengthen a new independent situation for their own state. of states in this region. This is one point. kind of a state system and nationalism, I think that we are going towards a kind of The second point is the strengthening of and this is the second implication of the regionalization of stability and security in the state system with more independent “Arab Spring’s” geopolitical impact. the region. If we consider that the world’s and nationalistic characteristics. Some The third issue is the impact of those two security is being regionalized, if we com- might say that the “Arab Spring” brought elements on the role of regional players in pare that we started with the Iraqi crisis a social contract to the geopolitical rivalry solving regional issues. There is no doubt in 1991, the Afghanistan crisis in 2011, the of the states and some incompetence of that the role of regional players is much Iraqi crisis in 2003, and the Syrian crisis in some governments here. But, this is the more substantial than foreign players, 2011, we see the legitimacy of getting to a dominant view in the Western countries — players from the Western countries in political solution is being strengthened in that there are gaps between states and the region. That’s something that is quite the region. That shows that we are going to nations these days. The reality is that, clear. I think that, although for some re- see more regional aspects for establishing at the same time, by going through the gional rivalries between some regional security in the Middle East. context of the “Arab Spring” develop- actors — like between Iran and Saudi If you consider the implication of the Syrian ments, we see more focus on the role of Arabia — this is a challenge, at the same crisis’s geopolitical impacts, I would say 56 FINDING WAYS OF STABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

that now the legitimacy of a political implications of the Syrian crisis. I can tell It was mentioned in the morning con- solution is somehow being accepted. you that, from the beginning of the crisis, ference by all officials how much this That was very difficult at the beginning. the war was to fill the power vacuum. concern about terrorism is important Now we see the necessity of political But that has shifted to the battle against for all actors. My conclusion is that the consensus between different actors in terrorism. It was the war to change the most important geopolitical impact of the region. Now we see the need for a Syrian government at the beginning; now the “Arab Spring” is regionalization of balance of interests between actors in the it is the war to change the individual and stability and security in the Middle East. region and of course between regional and the leadership. At the beginning, it was a I think this will bring a lot of geopolitical trans-regional actors. Here I think there war based on finding a military solution to impact for world security. In my belief, was no such thing at the beginning of the everything; now it is a war for changing regional cooperation is key to establishing Syrian crisis. These are the geopolitical things using diplomatic solutions. international security.

57 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

AMBASSADOR S. A. RYABKOV Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

I would like to take a somewhat different the 2010 NPT Review Conference. It is ify… well, I am not going to name every tack from the previous speakers in this working to facilitate the convening of an single country. Let me just say that this panel discussion. In view of the topic of international conference on a WMD-free is one of the results of the successful this event, it would probably make sense zone. I would like to emphasize one new elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons for us to exchange opinions about the circumstance that arose in the Middle East capability. prospects for the establishment of a zone region in the past few months. We are on To return to the question of a WMD-free free of weapons of mass destruction and the verge of the completion of the process zone and of the conference on this is- their means of delivery in the Middle East. of eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons sue, we believe that the event must be We all realize that this issue has a long potential. In fact, the only major thing held before the end of this year. If we history, and it is linked to many politi- that has yet to be done is to complete fail to achieve this, the countries in the cal and diplomatic tasks. In many ways, the removal of one of the precursors of region — well, it is up them of course, but this issue goes beyond the framework chemical agents. Once that is done — and not only countries in the region, but also of regional security. The entire project we hope this will be done literally in a the co-sponsors of the conference, i.e. the may seem unrealistic. Nevertheless, I matter of days — the task will have been NPT depository states, will have failed to am sure that we will have to work on this accomplished. We will have accomplished implement what was agreed in 2010. This issue very energetically over the coming the task of eliminating Syria’s chemical will overshadow the upcoming NPT Review years. Part of the reason is that, in our weapons capability. Conference in 2015. I would like the dele- estimate, stability of the nuclear non- What does that mean for the region as gates, especially from the Middle Eastern proliferation regime, and stability of the a whole? In my view, it means that the states, to tell us what they think about Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, depend other countries that have yet to do so this whole situation. What is needed for on progress being made in this area. Russia are now under an obligation seriously to the participants in this process, especially has been working consistently at various consider officially joining the Chemical countries in the region itself — what must multilateral platforms and in bilateral Weapons Convention. In my view, Israel they do to produce an agenda that would contacts with partners in the region to could consider the possibility of ratifying be acceptable to all, and finally to agree implement the agreements reached at the convention. Egypt could sign and rat- on the terms of holding that conference?

58 FINDING WAYS OF STABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

V. A. ORLOV PIR Center President, Russian Federation

The Middle East and North African Region instance, on the basis of secret accords Iran’s Nuclear Program currently remains a key source of global between the U.S., Great Britain and Muam- Iran is an influential and independent threats and challenges linked to the pro- mar Gaddafi, elements of Libya’s mock player in the regional and world arenas, liferation of weapons of mass destruction WMD programs had been previously elimi- administering its own sovereignty and, (WMD) and their means of delivery. Taking nated or minimized, after which embarking thereby, protecting its own interests. As into account the fact that the region is in on intervention and regime change caused far as may be judged, Iran has never taken a state of ferment, with a high degree of no problems. The Libyan situation taught the political decision to develop nuclear internal instability, and full of intraregional an important lesson to states (like, for ex- weapons. Certainly, there has been some conflicts, it should be noted that the risks ample, North Korea) which have or intend non-systemic work of an applied military related to WMD proliferation beyond the to create WMD-potential of their own: do nature but its initiation was motivated region and to terrorism making use of not agree to talks and, if you do, do not by the fact that Iran’s adversary in the WMD components (WMD-terrorism) have make unilateral concessions or abandon Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, used increased of late and show no signs of the WMD you already have because in that WMD — chemical weapons — against abating. case it will be easier to destroy you after Iran, to which the international community such voluntary “disarmament”. basically turned a blind eye. Beginning in Iraq and the Non-Proliferation the mid-1990s, the United States and Israel of WMD Israel and the Proliferation have subjected Iran to immense pressure One of the most alarming trends of the Problem not to engage in developing civil nuclear past decade and a half has been “non-pro- From the point of view of non-proliferation, energy — its passport to the leading ranks liferation missionary work”, when incur- the main problem in the Middle East region of the technologically-developed states sions and regime change have taken place is Israel’s refusal to accede to the Nuclear of the 21st century. To Iran’s honor, it has on the pretext of combating proliferation. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NTP) and, what resisted this pressure. Moreover, Russia This was most blatant in Iraq (2003). And is more, to admit openly that it has a nu- has come to the aid of its partner on nu- yet, after the U.S. invasion, no WMD could clear arsenal of its own even though there merous occasions over this matter — in be found in Iraq. In this way, the very val- has been no doubt about this of late. Isra- the construction of the Bushehr nuclear ues and principles of the non-proliferation el’s completely non-transparent nuclear power plant and in the search for mutual- regimes were discredited. At the same arsenal, aimed against its neighbors in the ly-acceptable diplomatic solutions to the time, using the fight against proliferation region, is a source of great tension, while Iranian nuclear problem. At the same time, as a screen, the United States carried out Israel’s conduct to date has prevented аn the lack of transparency of some of Iran’s a geopolitical task of its own by placing international conference being called on actions did not meet with understanding Iraq under its control. creating a zone free of nuclear weapons from Russia, although it could probably be However, the international operation in and other weapons of mass destruction explained at least in part by Iran’s desire Iraq, carried out after the First Gulf War in the Near East. Abandoning nuclear to safeguard its civil nuclear program from (1991), which had the appropriate UN weapons, dismantling them along South outside influence. It was and remains in Security Council mandate and involved African lines and acceding to the NPT as Russia’s interests to see an Iran without inspectors from the IAEA and two commis- a non-nuclear state are in Israel’s long- nuclear weapons, a predictable Iran with sions — UNSCOM and UNMOVIC — was term interests. It must, however, be said a nuclear infrastructure under IAEA safe- an example of international, balanced that this point of view is not shared by guards. This was the aim of the latest and thought-out efforts to ensure the Tel Aviv. The international community, steps towards an international and univer- non-proliferation of nuclear, chemical, primarily in the person of Israel’s main sal solution to the Iranian nuclear problem. and biological weapons and their means ally and sponsor, the United States, must Possibilities now exist for a comprehensive of delivery, or biological weapons and their make additional efforts to change Israel’s diplomatic solution on Iran to be achieved means of delivery. position on this issue. Israel’s neighbors by the middle of this year, the interim in the region must make a contribution outlines of which were drawn in Geneva in Intervention in Libya as well, of course, by treating Israel’s November. At the same time, experience Another alarming trend was the inter- regional security concerns with greater has shown that pressure to have Iran roll vention of NATO forces in Libya. In this understanding. up its enrichment program at any cost is 59 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

futile and if the parties to the negotiations of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in the nuclear weap- it is monitored by the IAEA, will bring begin to come unstuck over demands for ons sphere. The KSA has neither nuclear them the benefits of the 21st century further concessions from Iran, the entire weapons nor the technological capabilities and reduce risks. The notion of a “pro- architecture of accords developed to date for developing them. At certain times, liferation chain reaction” in the region will crack or simply collapse. At present, however, the KSA has probably considered is wrong. Neither Turkey nor Egypt will however, the search for solutions to the the possibility of obtaining service-ready develop nuclear weapons of their own Iranian nuclear problem is a rare positive nuclear ammunition from Pakistan for a just because of rumors that one or other example of the possibilities of multilateral generous financial payment; the delivery of their neighbors is engaged in doing so. diplomacy in the non-proliferation sphere. vehicles the Kingdom acquired at one time Coming up with answers to challenges provide indirect evidence. to national interests is a far more subtle Syria’s Chemical Weapons process. In my opinion, the development The destruction of more than 90% of Syr- CTBT Issues of nuclear power in the region offers its ia’s chemical weapons is another example There are still a number of states in the states the prospect of more opportunities where diplomacy succeeded, even if only region that have not ratified the Compre- for cooperation than for rivalry. For this to temporarily, in getting the better of the hensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). happen, of course, requires the elimination trend towards military solutions. Russian These are Israel, Egypt, and Iran. It should of a focus of destabilization in the Middle proposals formed the basis for decisions not be a great effort for these states to rat- East — Israel’s nuclear weapons. about the destruction of chemical weapons ify this major treaty and this would serve Substantially reducing the risks connected in Syria. They made it possible to avoid to create a climate of trust in the region. to WMD proliferation in the Middle East external intervention, an escalation of At the same time, the unwillingness of a and North Africa appears to be compli- the Syrian conflict and its acquisition of nuclear power, the United States, to ratify cated at present. An effective practical an international nature. The Syrian lead- the CTBT understandably has an adverse measure, however, would be an interna- ership showed consistency in acceding impact on the readiness of non-nuclear tional conference to discuss issues related to the Organization for the Prohibition states to do the same. to creating a WMD-free zone in the Near of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and en- East. The decision to call this conference suring that decisions on the destruction WMD Terrorism Threats was taken by the NPT Review Conference of chemical weapons were carried out in The fact that a great many conflicts arise in 2010. Unfortunately, progress has been conditions of an ongoing civil war. However, in the region, the existence in the region minimal. Some movement towards calling questions remain regarding the diplomatic of a number of “gray zones” where there such a conference has been observed, decisions on Syria. First, how stable are are virtually no effective state institutions however. While not a panacea, the confer- they? Might it not be that, in renouncing its (Libya, Somalia) and the existence on the ence could launch a regional dialogue on chemical weapons arsenal, Syria’s current periphery of the region of extensive “gray the creation of a WMD-free zone — after government has lost its final trump card zones” (in the Sahel and Afghanistan) all, precisely and only in that event will and is approaching a final hour which has make it possible to talk about considerable it be possible to talk about a substantial merely been postponed but not revoked? risks that non-state entities will emerge reduction of WMD threats in the region. Second, what was behind last year’s ac- here, attempting to gain access to WMD cusations that the Syrian leadership had components and chemical and biological Recommendations used chemical weapons against its own weapons components above all. The most In this connection, I should like to out- population? Were these not acts of provo- influential international terrorist organiza- line the specific steps — there are 10 cation, cleverly played out and successfully tions active in the region are interested in of them — that could bring nearer the influencing public opinion? Inquiries have new kinds of acts of terrorism, unlike the emergence of a Middle East free of nuclear not enabled a definitive conclusion. Such an ones that have gone before, which would and other types of WMD. They are: analysis is called for, however. Third, why, have an even greater effect on global public • A joint statement by all countries in when Syria has ratified the CWC [Chemical opinion. The threat of WMD terrorism is by the region in which they undertake to Weapons Convention], has its neighbor — nature cross-border and supra-regional. refrain from attacking one another’s Israel — still not taken the same step? declared nuclear facilities that have Double standards have always existed Nuclear Energy Development been placed under IAEA safeguards, in the Middle East and should come as A number of states in the Middle East and and from threatening such attacks. no surprise. They are, however, disasters North Africa (Turkey, UAE, Jordan etc.) • The development of a “road map” waiting to happen. have begun moving in the direction of pointing the way to gradually placing developing nuclear energy at home. Some all facilities in the region’s nuclear Saudi Arabia and Nuclear experts view these steps with undoubted infrastructure under IAEA safeguards. Capabilities suspicion. I take the opposite point of • The Middle East countries’ ratification To date we know only the tip of the iceberg view. The involvement of the states of of the IAEA Additional Protocol. when it comes to cooperation between the region in stable, state-of-the-art, • The creation of a permanent regional Pakistan (Dr. A. Q. Khan) and the Kingdom high-tech energy solutions, as long as confidence-building mechanism in the 60 FINDING WAYS OF STABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

nuclear sphere and in the sphere of on a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the • The creation in the Middle East of chemical and biological weapons and Middle East. In the process of framing effective early-warning mechanisms certain types of delivery vehicles. the treaty, all states in the region for nuclear incidents. • Ratification by all countries in the region should accede to the Chemical Weapons We are glad that these recommendations of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Convention and the Biological Weapons were supported by representatives of the Treaty. Convention. UN, states in the region, and the NPT • The agreement of accords to ban • The internationalization and regionali­ depositary States: Russia, the United missiles with a range of more than zation of the nuclear fuel cycle. Kingdom, and the United States. We be- 3,500 km. • Institutionalized cooperation in the lieve that this process should be extended • The formation of an inter-state nuclear sphere, creation of an integrated and the Conference should be convened commission to draft the text of a treaty regional structure. before the end of this year.

61 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel PANEL DISCUSSION Afghanistan and regional security

62 ОБЗОР КОНФЕРЕНЦИИ

63 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

MODERATOR

AMBASSADOR A. I. ANTONOV Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation

SPEAKERS

LIEUTENANT GENERAL I. D. SERGUN Chief, Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

AMBASSADOR Z. N. KABULOV Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Afghanistan, Director of the Second Asia Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

COLONEL Z. K. SUERKULOV First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Kyrgyz Republic

MAJOR GENERAL K. A. DUSHEBAEV Deputy Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

AMBASSADOR S. AMIN President of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Islamic Republic of Pakistan

AMBASSADOR P. STOBDAN Senior Fellow of Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, Republic of India

64 AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY

LIEUTENANT GENERAL I. D. SERGUN Chief, Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

Ladies and gentlemen, in my contribution, In the light of these circumstances, the deployments in Afghanistan in full, or if the I would like to present the results of the results of our research show that, in the powers of foreign military contingents are Main Directorate’s mathematical modeling medium term, the situation in Afghanistan significantly curtailed. If this happens, we of the three most likely scenarios for the may develop in line with the following main forecast that the Taliban will extend their military-political situation in Afghanistan, scenarios: influence rapidly and expand the scope of as well as of the progress of and prospects • the current domestic political alignment their terrorist and subversive activities, for the completion of ISAF’s withdrawal is preserved, in the presence of a limited which will allow them to establish control from Afghan territory. foreign military contingent; across almost the entire territory of the In compiling our forecast, we took account • the Taliban movement seizes power; country. not only of the instability factors that have • Afghanistan disintegrates into ethnic If this scenario is realized, the considerable been in evidence and have now become enclaves. potential of illegal armed groups operating permanent, but also of the trends that have Before moving on to examine the detail of an extensive network of training camps recently emerged. the scenarios, I would like to note that the for militants from international terrorist In particular, the Taliban have interpreted model takes account of more than 3,000 organizations will be preserved. This will the decision to reduce the size of the for- factors capable of influencing the situa- pose a genuine threat that the Islamists eign military contingent in Afghanistan as tion to a greater or lesser extent. These will shift their combat operations onto the an undoubted victory for them. This move include the potential and existing capabil- territory of neighboring states, primarily has reinforced their plans to ensure that ities of various domestic political forces, those in Central Asia, in order to seize foreign military contingents are expelled extremist groups, the interests of foreign power in these republics. The probability from Afghan territory, and to seize power. states and their efforts in protecting those of the situation developing in line with this That is precisely why the efforts of the interests, and the specifics of Afghanistan, scenario is 27%. United States, its allies and the Afghan socioeconomically and in terms of physical Afghanistan may disintegrate into ethnic leadership to organize a dialog with the geography. enclaves if the Taliban movement and its Taliban are failing to yield practical results. If the current domestic political alignment allies attempt to establish control across The movement’s leaders are convinced that is preserved, in the presence of a limited the whole of Afghanistan’s territory. If victory for them is inevitable, and believe foreign military contingent, overall this will this happens, ethnic minorities, primarily there is no point in engaging in talks with preserve the existing balance of interests, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmen and the Hazara, their opponents. and the armed confrontation between the who live mainly in the country’s northern It is certainly the case that the election of a authorities in Kabul and the Taliban will and western districts, may mount an armed new president is exerting a major influence continue. At the same time, the Islamists resistance against the Taliban, leading on developments in Afghanistan. However, will make significant progress in boost- to the country’s territorial and political analyzing the programs of the main can- ing the number of combat groups at their division and Afghanistan’s possible dis- didates vying to become Afghanistan’s disposal, and in extending their zone of integration into various quasi-state en- president shows that, irrespective of who influence into the country’s central and tities. This situation will bring about an wins the second round of the election, there western districts. escalation in the “competition” to extend will not be any radical changes in Kabul’s The military presence maintained by the U.S. spheres of influence in Central Asia. The military-political strategy. Afghanistan’s and its allies on Afghan territory will remain probability of the situation developing in undeniable dependence on financial and the principal condition guaranteeing the line with this scenario is 31%. military assistance from abroad ensures sustainability of the government in Kabul. At the same time, we have also analyzed that boosting cooperation with the United Afghanistan will continue to be the source the various ways in which the foreign States will be a foreign policy priority for of an increased threat to all the states of military presence in Afghanistan may the new Afghan government. Central Asia in terms of terrorism, religious be reduced. This research shows that, Additional factors affecting the development extremism and the drugs trade. The prob- by the end of this year, the members of the situation in Afghanistan are: increased ability of the situation developing in line of the coalition need to withdraw at propaganda activity by the Taliban and the with this scenario is 39%. least 40,000 service personnel from Af- absence of progress in the organization of a The Taliban movement seizing power is ghanistan, more than 40,000 armored peace dialogue with the armed opposition. possible if foreign countries end their troop and automotive vehicles and some 300 65 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

As scheduled

As is

If Central LOC blocked

If Northern LOC blocked

If Southern LOC blocked

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

ISAF Withdrawal Scenarios

helicopters. The southern, central and routes are blocked, it may take until 2018 military presence on Afghan territory northern communications routes will be and 2020 respectively for all property need to be adjusted. The pretext for this used for this purpose. to be moved out. And if the situation may be the supposed escalation of the Our assessment of progress in the reduc- in Pakistan escalates and the southern domestic political situation in Afghan- tion of the ISAF contingent shows that, route is closed, then it will take until istan, resulting from an increase in the by the end of 2014, the Americans and 2022 at the earliest. activities of the armed opposition. their allies will only have managed to Our findings show that, despite its So we can confidently assert that the withdraw personnel. Western states are high-profile statements, the United United States will retain a military pres- experiencing serious difficulties in with- States will not manage to finish with- ence in Afghanistan until at least 2024. drawing property and military equipment. drawing its troops from Afghanistan by This will not, however, exert a signifi- If cargo continues to be dispatched to the end of 2014. In those circumstances, cant influence in terms of reducing the permanent deployment locations at the Washington will be forced to launch its armed opposition’s combat potential. current rate, including via the northern latest information campaign, which will The radical Islamic groups operating on supply route, the plans will be imple- be designed to persuade the interna- the country’s territory will continue to mented in full no earlier than by 2017. If tional community, and above all the U.S. be the main source of terrorist threat the central or northern communications American people, that the plans for a for Central Asia.

66 AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY

AMBASSADOR Z. N. KABULOV Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Afghanistan, Director of the Second Asia Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

Much is being said at the moment about virtually restored their combat potential. and multilayered system of “kickbacks”. the notorious “2014 factor”. The over- One traditional source of pride for our Ultimately, the drugs trade remains the whelming majority of politicians, diplo- Western partners is the fact that they have only sustainable source of income for the mats and analysts view this factor in the assisted in the creation of a 350,000-strong Afghan economy. The reduction in the size context of what may happen following the army, a police force and security services in of the foreign troop contingent is lead- withdrawal from Afghanistan, at the end Afghanistan. This raises a legitimate ques- ing to a contraction in the service sector, of this year, of U.S. combat units and the tion: why do the national armed forces, with the result that Afghanistan’s GDP U.S.-led International Security Assistance which enjoy such numerical strength and growth rate fell from 12% in 2012 to 3.3% Force (ISAF). It seems to me that forecasts the support of a foreign troop contingent in 2013. In other words, after 12 years, the about what will happen after 2014 should currently numbering almost 50,000, remain West has failed to create the sort of viable be based on a clear understanding of what incapable of suppressing an armed oppo- economy that might deliver sustainable has and has not been done in the country sition that is one-fifth or even one-sixth development. over the past 12 years. their size? It could be that the Afghan Our Western partners love to talk about In the autumn of 2001, after launching air army does not have an air force, but then the hundreds of schools and clinics that strikes on the military infrastructure of nor do the Taliban. The national army and have been built. At the same time, they the Taliban, the United States deployed the national police are not particularly keep quiet about the fact that most of around 2,000 service personnel in Afghan- well-armed, but Taliban units are no better these facilities have no teachers or health- istan. Taliban forces, numbering around equipped. One cannot but think that the care staff. As a result of the economy 70,000 militants, fled, taking cover in problem lies in the morale of armed forc- stagnating, tens of thousands of university villages and in neighboring Pakistan. In es personnel, unconvinced that they are graduates are joining the ranks of the 2002, the Americans boosted their military fighting for what are genuinely national unemployed (who account for more than presence to 5,000, constantly building interests. With some, the belief among 60% of the labor force). up their headcount not in order to fight the Taliban that they are fighting a war of Western governments have been extremely the Taliban, whose combat potential was national liberation against infidel occupiers fortunate with their taxpayers, who seem non-existent, but to create a counterweight strikes a chord. not to be interested in why the $1tr spent to the armed units of the former Northern Let’s now take a brief look at the state in Afghanistan has not resulted in a stable Alliance, which constituted the backbone of the Afghan economy and the social state with a self-sufficient economy and of the Afghan armed forces. So engrossed sphere, in which the U.S. is said to have battle-ready armed forces. were they with achieving this objective invested more than $100bn. If you add in The West has already announced its Af- that they “overlooked” the revival of Tal- additional major investments from other ghan mission successfully completed and iban units in the southern provinces of the Western countries, this figure is entirely is hastily withdrawing its combat units, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. By 2005, comparable with what the Soviet Union but it has no intention of leaving. Evi- the U.S.-NATO contingent had ballooned spent between the 1960s and the 1980s dence of this is eloquently supplied by to 40,000 soldiers and officers, while, in on more than 140 large and medium-sized the draft Afghan-U.S. security cooperation parallel, the Taliban’s sphere of influence socioeconomic projects. Show me, if you agreement Washington has been trying had spread across several provinces in the can, just 10 of these facilities that have unsuccessfully to sign with Kabul over south and east of the country. ISAF’s peak been funded by the Americans. We are told the past year. Under the agreement, the headcount, in 2012, was 150,000, while that the problem, so they say, is rampant U.S. would retain the right to use at least the Taliban wielded influence in more than corruption and a propensity for theft within nine major military bases set up by them in 10 provinces, with up to 40,000 militants the Afghan authorities. Let’s look at the the past, at Bagram, Kandahar, Shindand, under arms (at present they are capable facts. Up to 2012, only 20% of Western aid Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Jalalabad, of mobilizing up to 70,000 militants). Thus, was passing through the government of the Khost and Shurabak. Should the need during the 12 years the West has had a mil- Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, under the arise, the Pentagon would have the right itary presence in Afghanistan, and despite supervision of foreign advisers, while the to retain and use other infrastructure for its the fact that over that period Washington remaining funds were being distributed own purposes. In the past few days, NATO has spent $600bn on the upkeep of its by the donors themselves through their has also announced that it is prepared to troops in Afghanistan, the Taliban have own NGOs, who set up a wide-ranging deploy its personnel at these facilities. 67 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

This whole military engineering apparatus the Afghan-U.S. security agreement, as in Central Asia, have appeared along the is being modestly portrayed as a network he would not wish history to record his northern sector of the Afghan border, in of training centers for the Afghan armed association with this document. In public the provinces of Badakhshan and Badghis. forces. Once this network’s objectives are and on more than one occasion, he and In addition, the 30 helicopters we supplied clarified, however, it transpires that the many other Afghan politicians have cast are yet to be handed over to the Afghan only people who will be trained there are doubt on the notion that the U.S. moved army, and are being intensively used by the senior officers from the Ministry of Defense into Afghanistan in order to fight terrorism. Americans exclusively to meet their own and the General Staff of the Armed Forces The view is popular among Afghans that needs — and to such an extent that they of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan — Washington is intentionally supporting will soon reach the end of their operational likely, in total, to number fewer than 600. internal instability in the Islamic Repub- life and require an overhaul. It seems to me that one medium-sized lic of Afghanistan in order to justify its All these facts testify to the deceitful training centre would have been more military presence. nature of the American theory that NATO’s than enough for these purposes. When Against the backdrop of recent threats military presence in Afghanistan supposed- we draw the attention of our partners to that NATO should stop collaborating with ly amounts to an insurance policy against these oddities, they assure us, as was Russia, it is worth using the example of instability spreading into Central Asia, and the case with their promises that NATO Afghanistan in order to take a closer look meets Russia’s national security interests. would not expand eastwards, that this at who has benefited from this sort of co- The same can be said of the argument, infrastructure is not intended to undermine operation. We expected that granting the favored by the Americans, that their de- Russia’s security or that of other states U.S. and NATO the right to move materiel parture from Afghanistan would lead to in the region. across Russian territory, carrying out joint the complete collapse of the situation I doubt that any impartial analyst would programs to train Afghan soldiers and there. The existing Afghan realities show find it particularly difficult to conclude police, and fulfilling an American order that the protracted U.S. military presence that such a powerful network will provide to supply a large consignment of Mi-17 in this country has led to the revival of the a convenient platform, should the need helicopters, would help to stabilize the military-political potential of the Taliban arise, for the fresh deployment of a large military and political situation in the Islam- and other Islamic radicals. The retention military contingent capable of addressing ic Republic of Afghanistan and reduce the of American military bases there will con- geostrategic objectives across an area threat terrorism and the drugs trade pose tinue to serve as a “red rag” to inspire the running from the Persian Gulf, via the to the interests of the Russian Federation activities of local and foreign extremists. Caspian Sea and Central Asia, and over and its allies in Central Asia. In actual fact, A resolution in Afghanistan should be to China. This logic is entirely consistent there is no point in talking about stability sought by supporting the development of a with the plans Washington has announced in Afghanistan and the end of the flow of genuine process of national reconciliation to pivot the center of gravity of America’s drugs out of the country along the North- among the Afghans themselves, without military-political and economic strategy ern Route. Two imposing bridgeheads, foreigners interfering. The international over to the Asia-Pacific region. It is no which are being used as bases by several community can genuinely help Afghanistan surprise, therefore, that Afghan Presi- thousand militants from extremist Islamist by fulfilling its earlier promises to assist in dent Hamid Karzai has refused to sign organizations preparing for deployment the country’s socioeconomic development.

68 AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY

COLONEL Z. K. SUERKULOV First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Kyrgyz Republic

Ladies and gentlemen, first of all, I would region’s states and international organ- groups operating on its territory and like to greet the Conference participants, izations: occasionally entering into confrontation and also to thank the organizers, as rep- • The increased scale of international with government forces are aggravating resented by the Ministry of Defense of the terrorism and religious extremism, the situation; Russian Federation, for their invitation, and the activities of international drug- • Second, training camps for militants, for the opportunity to exchange views on trafficking gangs and other organized many of whom come from the states of current problems in international security. crime groups; Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, are Without doubt, stabilizing the situation • The intensification of hydroelectric continuing to operate in Afghanistan; in Afghanistan is a key problem for the energy problems; • Third, the increase in drugs trafficking international community as it seeks to • The incomplete international and the increased frequency of meetings combat new challenges and threats. formalization of the state border. between field commanders and drug Kyrgyzstan is rigorously pursuing a course I believe that one of the most important dealers confirm that the financing of towards strengthening its foreign policy areas for us to act in addressing these terrorist and extremist organizations collaboration, as well as the coordination objectives is to work in order to ensure a is well-organized and uninterrupted; and construction of common approaches to timely and appropriate reaction to minor • In addition, the planned withdrawal of the development of the current situation changes in the military-political situation, NATO troops from Afghanistan and the in Afghanistan. and to take specific measures. withdrawal of the transit center from In this context, our forum provides a good This collaboration must be mutually rein- Kyrgyzstan could be used by destructive platform to coordinate positions and deter- forcing in nature and designed to achieve forces for their own purposes; mine areas where interested parties and the following aims: All the factors listed above can only alarm international organizations can undertake • Timely (pre-emptive) acquisition of us, since the peace of mind of peoples living joint efforts in order to preserve peace and reliable information on the intentions not only in neighboring states in the imme- stability in Central Asia and in the world (designs) of international terrorist diate vicinity of the hotbeds of tension, but as a whole. organizations; across the entire world, depends on these Dear conference participants, above all, I • Timely decision-making; threats being neutralized effectively. would like to note that last year, 2013, was • Timely joint action to neutralize and In this area, the outcome of the presidential a landmark year for the Kyrgyz Republic, eliminate problems that may suddenly elections is of no little importance, since it specifically in terms of ensuring security. arise; is only the presence of a strong Afghan gov- Our state chaired two international or- • Improved collaboration between ernment capable of influencing political pro- ganizations at the same time — the OSCE uniformed agencies in jointly ensuring cesses and implementing measures targeted and the SCO — and organizing and staging military security; at the state’s socioeconomic rehabilitation meetings of their charter bodies allowed • Improved training for armed forces and that will facilitate progress in this state. us, at the very highest level, to coordinate other military units for use in combat It is important that the results of the elec- our states’ positions on global problems. etc. tions of the President should allow Afghan- At the same time, the issue of preserving Returning to the main theme of our istan to resolve its internal conflicts in the peace and stability in the region, in the conference, I would like to confirm our interests of the country’s development and light of the forthcoming withdrawal of the position that Kyrgyzstan supports the in order to improve the well-being of the main International Security Assistance international community on matters re- local population. Force troop contingent, was one of the lating to post-conflict arrangements in Despite this, the region’s states also need significant moments that required joint Afghanistan. to take pre-emptive steps to ensure they efforts among the various parties so that The threats emanating from this state’s provide an appropriate response to emerg- it could be resolved. territory give rise to certain fears among ing challenges and threats, and to work to On the subject of the main preconditions the region’s states that the situation will reinforce borders, strengthen their control for the predicted growth in tension in the destabilize, and those fears are linked to over migration flows, establish collaboration region, I would like to identify the following the following principal factors: between security services, law-enforcement as the most acute problems requiring an • First, Afghanistan in itself is a hotbed of agencies and other bodies, improve the appropriate response on the part of the instability, and the well-armed terrorist mechanisms used for military-technical 69 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

cooperation and provide military-technical operational and combat training for the • Military-technical cooperation and other types of material support in the Armed Forces of the Kyrgyz Republic, is being developed with partner- event of a crisis. independently, on a bilateral basis and countries to equip the armed forces For our part, we are ready to carry out multi- under the auspices of international with modern weaponry and military lateral projects as well as our own projects, organizations. equipment. all designed to implement the tasks lying • Areas of cooperation are being I would like to conclude my speech by ahead of us. monitored and identified in respect confirming once again that we are al- In this area, in terms of foreign policy, of the most topical global and regional ways ready for constructive and open security and defense, the Kyrgyz Repub- security issues, especially in Central dialog and for active involvement in lic is taking the following action: Asia. measures to preserve international • The Armed Forces are being reformed • Plans are being drawn up in peace and stability. so that there will now be a single anticipation of a possible escalation I am confident that our joint efforts will military command body — the General in the situation in the region, given allow us to find common solutions in Staff of the Armed Forces of the the situation in Afghanistan and the interests of stability and prosperity Kyrgyz Republic. the withdrawal of the International for Afghanistan and for the region as a • Measures are being taken to provide Security Assistance Force. whole.

70 AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY

MAJOR GENERAL K. A. DUSHEBAEV Deputy Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Ladies and gentlemen, dear conference resulting terrorism, drugs trafficking and Diplomatic Club, set up in Beijing earlier participants, please allow me to welcome transnational organized crime, continue in 2013 at the suggestion of Chinese Vice you on behalf of the Shanghai Cooperation to pose serious threats to everyone. The Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping, had the Organization and its Secretary-General, member-states who are the Islamic Re- honor of inviting Islamic Republic of Af- Dmitry Mezentsev, and to thank the Min- public of Afghanistan’s direct neighbors, ghanistan President Mr. Hamid Karzai to istry of Defense of the Russian Federation both geographically and historically, are take part in an “expanded” discussion. This for its warm welcome and the excellent paying special attention to the state of is also a serious sign of the attention the environment it has created for our work. affairs in this country. We can only be wor- SCO is paying to the Afghan issue. In the 13 years since it was set up, the ried about the uncertainty in Afghanistan, At present, the SCO is expanding its col- Shanghai Cooperation Organization has the fact that the national reconciliation laboration with the UN Assistance Mission achieved notable successes, established plan has not been implemented, and the in Afghanistan and the UN Development itself as a respected international organ- development of the situation following the Program for the purpose of ensuring peace ization and become a factor in regional withdrawal of ISAF in 2014. and stability in this country. and global politics. The Organization has The concluding documents of the annu- The April 2010 joint declaration on coop- presided over the development of what is, al meetings of the leaders of the SCO’s eration between the UN and the SCO, and in its own way, a unique form of multilat- member-states invariably note that the the November 2012 UN General Assembly eral cooperation. The system of coopera- Organization supports the development of Resolution on “Cooperation between the tion that operates within the SCO affects the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan as an UN and the SCO”, are designed to bring almost every area of cooperation between independent, neutral, peaceful and pros- about closer collaboration with the United SCO member-states in their efforts to perous state. Securing peace and stability Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, as part ensure security and stability across the in Afghanistan is one of the main factors of the implementation of the provisions SCO region. The top priorities are mount- in ensuring regional and international se- of the Protocol of Cooperation between ing effective, combined efforts to combat curity. The SCO proceeds on the basis that the UNODC and the SCO’s Regional Coun- global threats and challenges and ensuring the deep historical, ethnic and demographic ter-Terrorism Structure. sustainable socioeconomic development roots of Afghanistan’s multi-ethnic people, Sustainable security in Afghanistan is, on across the SCO region. and their traditional and religious values, the one hand, the result of certain agree- This includes battling systematically must be respected in full. ments in Afghan society, and, on the other, against the “three evil forces” — terrorism, SCO member-states are sure that the the willingness of the majority to support separatism and extremism — and against Afghan problem cannot be resolved ex- not only the efforts of the authorities, drugs and arms trafficking and other forms clusively by resorting to the use of armed but also the so-called “humanitarian” of transnational crime and illegal immi- forces and military assets and through foundations of a peaceful resolution. It gration, something we will be discussing increased militarization, without engaging is important that the Islamic Republic in greater detail and substance today. the Afghans themselves in this process, of Afghanistan’s foreign partners should As new threats and challenges intensify, or without a seriously considered and or- take account of and respect the historical, pooling our efforts against these “evil ganized process of negotiation under the cultural and religious specifics of Afghan forces” confirms the Organization’s special auspices of the United Nations, or without society and Afghan history. relevance, and is gaining in importance. achieving consensus between the parties to “The SCO’s role in ensuring regional The situation in and around Afghanistan oc- the conflict and strengthening the vertical security: problems and prospects”, an cupies a special place on the SCO agenda. chain of political command. international research and application At their summit in Beijing in 2012, leaders In 2013, led by the Organization’s secre- conference focusing on regional security of SCO member-states decided to grant tary-general, an SCO delegation took part issues, took place in Dushanbe on 14-16 Afghanistan the status of SCO observer, in the OSCE Security Day on the “Afghan May. In June, experts from our countries, bypassing the status of dialog partner. The issue” in Vienna, took part in “an open SCO member-states, SCO observer-states decision taken by the presidents was, in debate” at the UN Security Council in New and SCO dialog partners will gather for the its own way, unprecedented. York and was represented at the 3rd Istan- ninth time at the SCO Forum, the so-called Meanwhile, the continuing escalation of bul Process conference in Almaty. At its “second track”, in order to discuss key the confrontation in Afghanistan, and the first meeting in September 2013, the SCO issues not just in the life of the Organ- 71 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

ization, but also in the region’s future. society that has lived for decades amid be in demand across the SCO region. We are convinced that at these expert systemic instability and, on occasion, I am convinced that all the proposals, forums, including today’s event, it is very military action. assessments, approaches and initiatives important that the discussion of regional In conclusion, please allow me to stress that are discussed in the course of the security and integrated approaches should once again that the issues included on plenary session and thematic discussions be timely and substantial. It is specifically the agenda of today’s Conference are at the 3rd Moscow conference will make at these forums that there can be a de- extremely important to our Organization. I an important contribution to the search tailed discussion about taking account of am convinced that the authoritative views for answers to the key questions in global historical, cultural and religious traditions of the defense ministry representatives, security, and to strengthening peace and and social memory, which have been ac- international organizations and non-gov- stability in the interests of the peoples cumulated and preserved in an Afghan ernmental experts in attendance will also of our countries.

72 AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY

AMBASSADOR S. AMIN President of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Islamic Republic of Pakistan

Ladies and Gentlemen, it is a privilege for with Afghanistan. Following that, President by taking along all the different mindsets me to address this Conference on Interna- Karzai visited Pakistan. That meeting laid and factions with them. tional Security, which has devoted itself to the foundation of a post-2014 strategic Pakistan has welcomed the phased trans- the ideals of stable international peace and partnership between the two countries. fer of lead security responsibility from security, as well as the peaceful resolution The international community has been ISAF to Afghan National Security Forces of international conflicts. I thank Mr. Ana- expecting Pakistan to play a role in the (ANSF). 150,000 troops could not bring toly Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defense, Afghanistan reconciliation process. Paki- stability there and now this responsi- for giving me this unique opportunity. stan has repeatedly said that this process bility is being given to the ANSF. It is to The situation in Afghanistan after 2014 has to be Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. be seen if the ANSF will be able to hold will not only determine the shape of the Pakistan can provide whatever assistance out against heavy odds. The international region but also the extended neighbor- Afghanistan requests us for whatever we community will have to rely on the ability hood. Peace and stability in Afghanistan can possibly do. Only the Afghan people of the ANSF to keep Afghanistan stable are crucial to the economic potential of and their government can craft a roadmap and secure, which in turn will enable the Central Asia, South Asia, South West Asia for national reconciliation and determine political leadership in the country to focus and Asia Pacific to unleash itself at its their future. Behind the scenes, Pakistan on governance and other key sectors of optimal capacity. The future security and has neither been involved nor will it get economic and social importance. strategic stability of these regions are involved. Pakistan has also been saying ANSF will also require constant upgrad- also dependent on peace in Afghanistan. that regional countries should not support ing. One of the major challenges for the Afghanistan is Pakistan’s immediate neigh- their favorites but instead help the Afghan international community will be to ensure bor. We have common borders. Pakistan government. They should play a facilitating adequate funding for the upkeep and main- is home to more than 3 million Afghan role. Creating a peaceful external environ- tenance of 350,000 ANSF members. This refugees. The continuation of the conflict ment would help the country in looking force must remain intact beyond 2014. hurts Pakistan more than any other coun- after its internal problems. The international community must not try, apart from Afghanistan itself. Peace on Pakistan also believes that it is necessary let the ANSF disintegrate as it will have our western borders is, therefore, vital to that all of Afghanistan’s ethnic groups are disastrous consequences for the country our stability and economic development. consulted and included in the country’s and the entire region. Russia has already Pakistan’s assessment about the situation future political system. Pakistan believes pledged to continue to train the Afghan in Afghanistan is based on realism and that all stakeholders in Afghanistan should national army personnel and police and pragmatism. Afghanistan is undergoing engage in the political process. The best to supply them with small arms. Pakistan three concurrent political, security and route is through a robust political process. has also beefed up security by establishing economic transitions up to 2014 before it Inclusiveness can guarantee success. All more than 1,000 posts along its border with marches into a decade of transformation. stakeholders have to be on board. Afghanistan. More than 140,000 Pakistani Smooth security and economic transitions In April of this year, the people of Afghani- troops are deployed on our side of the are pivotal to stability in Afghanistan and stan went to polls for the third time under border, at huge financial cost. the region. This time, there will be no pre- the Bonn process to elect a new President The international community’s commitment cipitous disengagement of the interna- and members of the provincial councils. to continue providing economic assistance tional community from Afghanistan. The These elections have been an Afghan af- to Afghanistan is also essential for es- drawdown is phased and properly planned. fair, with relevant Afghan institutions in tablishing durable peace in the country. Bilateral and regional mechanisms are the lead. Despite threats from extremist Almost 80 per cent of all governmental expected to be in place to help with the groups, the voters in Afghanistan cast their spending and 100 per cent of the cost of transition. If these transitions are managed votes in record numbers. The frontrunners maintaining ANSF is being met through responsibly and skillfully, Afghanistan will in the Afghan Presidential election have a international aid. Financial commitments see a dawn of security and stability, and modern education and outlook. A lot will already made by international donors for so will the region. now depend on the new political dispen- the period beyond 2014 are required to be Immediately after assuming office, Prime sation in Afghanistan. Its priority should honored. The Tokyo Declaration pledges Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif took be to rally support for the government $16bn for Afghanistan until 2015. Any the initiative of fostering better relations among the masses to create national unity cutback in foreign assistance will have 73 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

disastrous consequences for the fragile Agreement for the supply of 700 MW of disputes among South Asian countries, Afghan economy. The international com- electricity to Pakistan via Afghanistan will make SAARC productive. While po- munity will have to show patience until the from 2016. Pakistan is an energy-deficient litical, security and economic transitions economy stands on its own feet. country and we need these vital supplies, are taking place in Afghanistan, there is Peace and security in Afghanistan has been for which the security situation in Afghan- little progress in South Asia on solving a major concern for Pakistan. Pakistan has istan will play a decisive role. outstanding disputes between India and all along remained engaged with the inter- Like Russia, Pakistan wishes to see a Pakistan. national community at bilateral, trilateral, prosperous and peaceful Afghanistan. Both Peace and security in South Asia will re- quadrilateral and multilateral fora for the countries are in favor of creating circum- main unstable as long as the Kashmir dis- establishment of a lasting peace and for stances for the people of Afghanistan to pute between Pakistan and India remains the reconstruction and rehabilitation of achieve peace. Russia also believes as unresolved. Pakistan seeks a peaceful, Afghanistan. Pakistan does that Afghans themselves stable and prosperous neighborhood We do not as yet know who will form the have to lead the process. Russia gives through the peaceful resolution of issues government in Afghanistan, but irrespec- great importance to the capabilities of and economic cooperation. We also want tive of whoever forms the government, Pakistan in providing a transit route and to resume comprehensive dialogue with Pakistan will focus on building and en- connectivity to Central Asian states and India in a purposeful and forward-looking hancing bilateral relations. This is also in towards east and west Asia. Pakistan manner to find a peaceful resolution of all our self-interest because a peaceful and also shares Russia’s desire to develop outstanding issues. Pakistan is hopeful stable Afghanistan is essential for peace new transport and energy corridors in that the composite dialogue will lead to and progress in Pakistan. Besides, it would South and Central Asia for the economic the peaceful settlement of all bilateral open up the way for economic cooperation, development of the regional countries issues to the satisfaction of both sides. joint ventures and trade with Central Asia and to strengthen security in the region. India is currently undergoing political that we are very keen to enhance. Pakistan Russia is keen on building the CASA-1000 transition. The electoral process is under provides the shortest transit land route electric grid, stretching from Kyrgyzstan way. Pakistan is looking forward to the to Central Asian countries and beyond, and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan, establishment of a government in India through Afghanistan. and a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan via with which Pakistan can engage quickly, Peace in Afghanistan would pave the Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. For meaningfully and comprehensively. way for Pakistan to start importing much all that to happen, peace must return to South Asia, to which Afghanistan be- needed gas from Turkmenistan. The TAPI Afghanistan. longs, is one of the world’s largest re- Agreement for the supply of gas to Paki- Afghanistan is an important member of gions, with almost one-fifth of the world’s stan from Turkmenistan from 2017 will the South Asian Association of Regional population. It is our firm belief that, remain a non- starter unless the situation Countries. SAARC has a huge potential to without peace in and around our region, in Afghanistan is stabilized. Similarly, initiate intra-regional trade and economic there can be no lasting stability, which Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and activity. Peace and security in Afghanistan, is essential for achieving economic and Tajikistan have signed the CASA-1000 coupled with the resolution of outstanding social prosperity.

74 AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY

AMBASSADOR P. STOBDAN Senior Fellow of Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, Republic of India

At the outset, I wish to express some views a country like India, and perhaps the whole rity interests of India have suffered due to on India’s approach to the ongoing political world including the West, withstood the such policies. Lastly and most importantly, standoff in Ukraine. The overall approach worst of undermining the interests of the India’s principle position is to reject any of India in this regard is based on the un- Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Many in the political standoff that is marked by an derstanding of both historical and political West must be regretting the folly of poli- increasing number of violent incidents. realities of Russia’s position and its civi- cies adopted for Afghanistan at the time. India gives greater credence to political lization obligations in the entire Eurasian The Soviets were on a civilized mission in and diplomatic solutions that are built on space. From an Indian perspective, both in Afghanistan — something the Western the legitimate interests of all concerned. In the government and outside, there are little world had failed to understand. Anyway, any case, the use of force may not be the doubts or even a debate about Russia’s core that is history now. If the USSR has long best way to deal with regimes, however legitimate strategic interests and the role disappeared, what is the justification for bad and however anti-people they may be. it has played in Ukraine. continuing the ideological war by the West against Russia? Situation in Afghanistan: Russia in the Politics of India First, I do not think that the current level of Post 2014 In fact, in many ways India’s own strategic confrontation is sustainable for long, mainly Afghanistan and Central Asia are areas of interests seem majorly and critically tied to due to the imperative of economic interde- paramount interest to both India and Rus- those of Russia. It should be therefore clear pendence. Russia is not Iran or Myanmar. sia. Both internal and external factors could that India and Russia has a broad-based, Second, Russia is still being used as an shape future developments in Afghanistan. expansive, multifaceted, and time-tested ideological bogey or a punching bag by the On both fronts, things are not so optimistic. relationship continuing for decades. This elites of several failed or failing states. On the internal front, there are no clear-cut relationship possesses the elements of The elites in these states (mostly former signs of a decisive mandate for a strong depth and clear-cut vision. Moreover, the Soviet republics) tend to attract Western President in Afghanistan. There seems to Indo-Russian partnership is founded on an interests and support on the pretext of be no outright winner. Let us wait for the emotional and historical legacy, admiration, Russian bullying. However, past experienc- runoff election. However, any dispute over mutual trust and confidence. They remain es suggest that regime change, modeled the outcome of the runoff could push the undiminished and instead they adapt to through violent street protests, has not country into political chaos. The fear is that change according to changing needs. These necessarily endured political stability or the lack of strong mandate may open the carefully crafted relationships have contrib- left behind good democracy, or above all space for the Taliban to re-emerge on the uted towards enhancing both regional and loyalty of those countries, towards the front stage. international peace and stability. Western world. The governments propped The election this time may not become a From my perspective, the West’s current up by the West finally told the U.S. to shut panacea for problems in Afghanistan. In policies, largely designed for regime change down its military transit facilities. fact, challenges may also stem from the and escalated through media wars, are not Third and most critically, there are still same old factors of ethnic, political and only flawed but also irresponsible. They are states which have mastered the art of social power bases of competing Afghan policies aimed at stretching the boundaries playing the proxy game for the U.S. They leadership. Given the backgrounds of of Europe to limit the influence of Moscow constantly look to become strategically both the candidates, Abdullah Abdul- by leveraging internal Ukrainian divisions. I relevant to the West. The U.S. considers lah and Ashraf Ghani, their affiliation, do not believe that such kinds of strategic them allies and partners that are ever ready positions on most issues, any easy pinpricks, initiated by the U.S.-EU together to play the conventional military game and power-sharing deal in the aftermath of to undermine Russia’s legitimate interests benefit if not thrive in the process. This is the runoff seems difficult. I hope better while taking advantage of Russia’s weak- an old and Cold War-era tactic. sense prevails and they find a viable nesses, bode well for world peace in the Fourth, even if the standoff continues by formula. We also do not know yet the longer run. applying the unconventional means like new realignment among major Afghan If the escalation is aimed at entailing or sanctions, political alliances such as the ethnic groups, especially among Pash- bring about some long-term geopolitical one applied over Iran, these sanctions could tuns, Hazaras and Turkmens of Karkin. shift in Eurasia, then everyone should also cause political and economic turbulences. However, the rivalry between Pashtuns fear the possible implications. In the past, In the past, the political and energy secu- and Tajiks may once again resurface in 75 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

the post-runoff scenario. In a situation momentum in Afghanistan in the transi- trainers onto Afghan soil. However, the Af- like this, the Taliban will stand to gain. tion process could include the motivation ghan Army personnel could receive training On the external side, one is not sure wheth- among regional powers for a) security and in special operations and counter-terrorism er there is no linkage between the Ukraine b) economic engagement. Inevitably, every operations in India. Cooperation in commu- crisis and the Afghan issue. Afghanistan regional power has their stake in Afghan- nication and logistics could contribute to could easily become another battleground istan after 2014. Instability there and in the strengthening of the ANSF. for a new type of geopolitical game that has Central Asia could jeopardize economic In this regard, cooperation with Russia started after the “Arab Spring”. Any security stakes, including that of Pakistan. These to outsource arms supplies to the ANSF vacuum after 2014 could possibly open could include the cancellation of billions should be considered a step in the right the gate for a new proxy war, like the one of dollars in trade, energy and transport direction. There are several merits in the being played out in Syria and elsewhere, connectivity through projects like the mechanism that has evolved through that would mainly be fought in Afghani- TAPI gas pipeline, CASA-1000 electricity careful understanding of technical, finan- stan. There is a growing paranoia among transmission projects and the New Silk cial, logistical and political dimensions. the Sunni world about the rehabilitation Route projects proposed by both the U.S. Moreover, the funding of the supply of of Iran by the Western world. Surely, the and China. Pakistan may especially suffer Russian-origin weaponry to Afghanistan is Iranians have their legitimate interests more than any other country, particularly an option or a route chosen transparently, in Afghanistan as well. However, if the its trade potentials with Afghanistan and taking into consideration both domestic sectarian battleground is enlarged to the Central Asian states. and foreign policy angles that constrict Eurasian space, it could entail a chain of From India’s perspective, the objective is New Delhi from supplying arms to Afghan- effect across Asia. There are almost 100 clear and constant. India wants to see a istan directly. million Muslims, mostly Sunni Hanafis, liv- strong, stable and independent Afghani- One hopes that cooperation with Russia ing in the Eurasian region, including western stan. To achieve these goals and let the should cover the refurbishing and refitting China and western Mongolia. Afghans stand on their own feet, India of Russian-made weaponry, including tanks In recent years, the countries in the region, has maintained a consistent policy of fo- in Afghanistan. It is not just Russia but including China and Russia, have suffered cusing on the “capacity building” to in- countries of Central Asia like Uzbekistan, increased terrorist attacks. Terrorism and crease Afghanistan’s internal strengths Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan that violent crime have become frequent in and capabilities on both the economic and could contribute in this exercise. Repair and parts of China especially. In Central Asia, security fronts. maintenance workshops should readily be the radicals are penetrating through popu- On the security front, no viable option available in Chemkent, Kara-balta, Astana lated river valleys with weapons. External seems to exist once the NATO-led coalition and other facilities in Central Asia where elements are seeking an opportunity to forces leave by the end of this year. We do the repair and refitting of armored vehicles, provoke and exploit Islamic sentiments not know yet when the U.S.-Afghanistan including tanks, can be undertaken. In the against Russia. Suicide bombings in Russia Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) will process, the Central Asian countries could early this year have raised the specter of come about. Of course, much will depend also earn revenue to upgrade their defense expanded activities among radicals in the on the post-election scenario. Howev- industries. India continues to contribute Caucasus and other parts of the Russian er, for various political reasons and in substantially to the growth of defense firms Federation. the interests of avoiding an escalation of such as Dastan (Kyrgyzstan), Kiro Mashza- The Afghan transition is taking place at the regional conflict, the option of having vod (Kazakhstan) and others. a time when confrontation between the regional security forces deployed in Af- At the political level the trilateral consul- U.S. and Russia is taking place on several ghanistan is being ruled out. India, too, tations between India, China and Russia geopolitical fronts, including in Ukraine, strongly opposes foreign interference in to coordinate their views on the situation which can be exploited by forces antago- Afghanistan and strongly acknowledges in Afghanistan are an important step that nistic towards Russia in nexus with radical the ramifications of putting its own boots will contribute to regional diplomacy and elements. The start of any covert war in on the ground in Afghanistan. Therefore, Afghan reconciliation. The role of the SCO Eurasia could be catastrophic for the whole everyone including the U.S. acknowledges is no less important. region. After all, many powers, directly or that the only option for sustainable peace On the economic front, India has contributed through allies, continue to retain assets and security is to strengthen the Afghan substantially, around $2bn, in development across southern Russia. However, the West National Security Forces (ANSF). It is here assistance, to Afghanistan. A consortium should particularly fear that the use or that India wants to play a catalyst role of Indian companies has won the rights misuse of radicals could blow back, as in achieving this goal. India’s Strategic to invest in the Hajigak iron ore reserves happened after the anti-Soviet military Partnership Agreement (2011) with the in Afghanistan. India hopes to continue campaign in Afghanistan. Afghan government includes assisting in assisting Afghanistan to build its internal training, equipping, and capacity-building economy and contribute to the reconstruc- Role of Regional Powers programs to boost the ANSF. However, In- tion process. Apart from the internal political aspect, dia is fundamentally opposed to supplying Besides India, both China and Russia have the issues and interests that may gain lethal weapons as well as sending military huge internal and external security concerns 76 AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY

and they are also well placed to play a Factory and other manufacturing units that that all countries must start to de-link key role in Afghan reconstruction beyond could be restarted and modernized. Afghan policy from their bilateral political 2014. China’s role will particularly have a Regional countries could make a positive impulses. India feels that Afghan security moderating impact. Similarly, the image contribution to stabilize Afghanistan. It is a separate issue altogether. of Russia in the eyes of the Afghans may is here that cooperation between Russia, However, in a worst-case scenario, where not be the same as was there two decades China, and India will become critical after the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan ago. Many Afghans still appreciate and 2014. Equally, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Ka- could destabilize the entire region, Russia, recall the genuine and useful development zakhstan and Uzbekistan should play an India, Iran and others should not hesitate infrastructure projects undertaken by Soviet important role. All have huge economic to rebuild and muster their support for the engineers and economists in Afghanistan. stakes in Afghan stability. In fact, Afghan- Northern Alliance as an antidote to the Tal- It is known that the Russian Embassy in istan could become a hub or a crossroads iban. To be sure, much will depend on which Kabul has identified a list of 140 Soviet-era for regional cooperation, instead of regional external forces will support the Taliban and projects such as the Kabul House-building competition. It is time, and it is imperative, the kinds of agenda the militia may pursue.

77 May 23-24, 2014 Moscow, Radisson Royal Hotel

A. G. ARBATOV Head of the International Security Center of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations

I believe that it is not without reason that a withdrawn. This is a very powerful and strikes. A regular army is usually burdened special panel discussion has been devoted dangerous opponent — one whom it would with vast quantities of standard weapons to Afghanistan at this conference. What is be a grave error to underestimate. and equipment, management system and happening there stands out from a number First of all, these extremists are, for the logistics, which are of no use in operations of other conflicts discussed today, such as most part, fanatical people who do not fear against militants. the conflicts in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, and death, while regular troops, with whom We should in no way underestimate the Syria, primarily because the operation in they deal, clearly do not want to die, es- moral and political implications of a new Afghanistan was carried out based on a pecially in a place like Afghanistan, while victory for Afghan Islamists. Worldwide, UN Security Council resolution, for which performing peacekeeping functions. Ter- political Islam will celebrate this triumph Russia voted. Russia has played a huge rorists have extensive combat experience; with tremendous enthusiasm: after one role in the successful military phase of essentially, Afghanistan has been living victory over the Soviet nuclear superpower this operation, in organizing the Northern in a state of permanent war for several in 1989, here is another victory — over Alliance, in supplying it with weapons and generations. Regular troops, especially a NATO, the most powerful military-political equipment, and by working in many other conscript army, cannot boast of such expe- alliance in history, and even over the UN, areas as well, including the organization rience, and even a professional army would which authorized the operation in 2001. of the Afghan transit, which was of huge still possess more limited experience than And so, in preparation for the withdrawal of importance. I think it is no exaggeration the terrorists, who also possess an almost troops from Afghanistan, there is much to to say that Russia’s role in this operation unlimited reserve of manpower — one do in the coming years. I do not in any way has been greater than the role of any one limited only by their ability to control and claim to have an exhaustive list of these of Washington’s allies directly deployed manage these groups, as well as supply events and activities, but I will mention on the ground, although Russian troops them, as well as to know the landscape some that I think are the most important. were not directly involved in this operation. and the specifics of military operations. I believe the countries of the Collective The major blow to the entire Afghan op- Obviously, a regular army does not have Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the eration was dealt by the United States’ an unlimited reserve of manpower. Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and ill-considered incursion into Iraq, in the Terrorists give no thought to losses among BRICS should participate in the creation economic, political, and moral senses. their number or among the civilian popu- of a forum or a conference in the foresee- That incursion undermined the antiterrorist lation. Moreover, their tactics are often able future. Diplomats would agree on coalition, encouraged terrorists and Islamic aimed at ensuring that civilian casualties the format of the conference, taking into radicals, wasted huge amounts of money, are as large as possible. It is clear that account all the subtleties and nuances and sacrificed thousands of NATO troops a regular army cannot ignore losses of that exist between these three respected and tens of thousands of Iraqis. This is personnel, while collateral damage in the organizations. I think that this kind of broad the root of the problem that we now face form of civilian casualties is a very serious forum, with the inclusion, of course, of the as a result of what was essentially an problem that undermines the moral foun- Afghan side, would be useful in developing unsuccessful, unproductive operation in dations and the global political support for a common strategy for the period after Afghanistan. such operations. the withdrawal of NATO contingents. As There are many military personnel and ci- Terrorists may also conduct combat oper- for the United States and NATO, they, of vilians here with very extensive experience ations unfettered by limitations of time. A course, could be invited. I think they are dealing with terrorists and armed extrem- regular army cannot remain in an area of unlikely to agree, but that’s their decision. ists — for example, Army Gen. Makhmut hostilities indefinitely — precisely what If they don’t agree, it will have to be done Gareev — as well as many others. I do we are seeing now in Afghanistan. Ter- without them. not pretend that my modest experience rorists also enjoy a huge inflow of funds, Furthermore, within the framework of the could in any way be compared to theirs, whereas a regular army does not have the CSTO, which would play the leading role but I would like to say a few words about same advantage, since countries contrib- here, it seems to me that the rapid-re- the Islamic extremists whom the world uting troops have many other tasks before sponse forces would not be sufficient to now faces, particularly in Afghanistan, them. Finally, the extremists are optimally deal with the possible consequences of where they will have to be faced after armed for the type of fighting that they do, the withdrawal of NATO troops from Af- the contingent of peacekeeping forces is while choosing the time and place for their ghanistan if a Taliban resurgence occurs. 78 AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY

That they will go to the north and try to other two borders that separate Russia needs that may arise after NATO troops destabilize Central Asia is something that from this region, would be very important are withdrawn and the forces of the CSTO is, in my view, a certainty. Larger forces will in terms of the security of Central Asia and are directly facing the Islamists. be needed in order to counteract this. Or- Russia itself. One last point. This has already been ganizing and managing these forces within There is another matter. It would be a good discussed, and I just want to bring it up the CSTO should be a significant task. idea to look again at the state armament one more time. A major program of mil- Furthermore, in the past, a special group program, which has been planned now itary-technical cooperation with Afghan- of Russian border troops on the border of through 2024, and to understand — based istan, aimed at arming the Afghan army Tajikistan and Afghanistan played a large on the experience of Soviet troops and U.S. with Russian weapons, and the search for role in the fight against Islamists and the troops in Afghanistan — what part of it appropriate means of financing, would be flow of narcotics. Now, it’s not there. I would need to receive special attention in very important. What is now being done, understand that, politically, it would be dif- terms of financing technical-development of course, is not enough. We will need ficult to imagine it being revived, but some projects and the procurement of arms to do much more to supply the needs of new forms of more effective cooperation and equipment. I’m not sure that what is Afghan government forces, which are the within the CSTO to protect the border of now planned within the framework of this first line of defense against the Taliban’s Tajikistan and Afghanistan, as well as the program takes into account our troops’ offensive units.

79 III MOSCOW CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY May 23-24, 2014 Conference Proceedings Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Moscow, 2014 Under the General Editorship of Ambassador A. I. Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation

Executive Editor: M. Starchak, Research Fellow at PIR Center Proofreader: K. Dissanayake Maker-Up: B. Hudilainen Passed for printing: 01.06.2014 Edition: 500 copies This brochure was printed by the Company “Redenex” Russia, Moscow, Shchipok Street, Building 2 Phone: +7 (495) 780 71 18 PARTNERS OF CONFERENCE