vi moscow conference on international security

Conference Proceedings

Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation 26–27 April 2017 LIEUTENANT-GENERAL ANDREY RAVKOV Contents Minister of Defence of the Republic of Belarus 50

ZORAN ĐORĐEVIĆ Minister of Defence of the Republic of Serbia 58

Greetings from President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to participants AMBASSADOR LAMBERTO ZANNIER of the VI Moscow Conference on International Security 8 Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe 60

Message from Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres THEOLOGOS SYMEONIDIS to the VI Moscow Conference on International Security 9 Head of the Office of the Hellenic Minister of National Defence 62 STJEPAN MESIĆ Ex-President of the Republic of Croatia, public activist 65 OPENING OF THE CONFERENCE ALEXANDER GRUSHKO ARMY GENERAL NIKOLAY PATRUSHEV Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to NATO 67 Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation 12 JUHA MARTELIUS ARMY GENERAL SERGEY SHOYGU Special Adviser to the Minister of Defence of the Republic of Finland 68 Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation 13 VLADIMIR ORLOV SERGEY LAVROV Head of the Centre for Global Trends and International Organisations at the Diplomatic Academy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation 16 of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation 69

ARMY GENERAL ALEXANDER BORTNIKOV Director of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation 18 DISCUSSION 1 Middle East: modern objectives of counter-terrorism and counter-radicalism

PLENARY SESSION COLONEL-GENERAL SERGEY RUDSKOY Global Security: challenges of the XXI century Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff — First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces 73 ARUN JAITLEY Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs, CORPS GENERAL MAHMOUD SHAWA Defence Minister of the Republic of India 22 Deputy Minister of Defence of the Syrian Arab Republic 77

COLONEL-GENERAL SAKEN ZHASUZAKOV MAJOR-GENERAL MOHAMED ELKESHKY Minister of Defence of the Republic of Kazakhstan 24 Deputy Minister of Defence of the Arab Republic of Egypt 79

BRIGADIER GENERAL HOSSEIN DEHGHAN LIEUTENANT-GENERAL MAHMOUD FREIHAT Minister of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran 26 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 81

KHAWAJA MOHAMMAD ASIF CHRISTINE BEERLI Federal Minister of Defence of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan 28 Vice-President of the International Committee of the Red Cross 82

RAUL BELENS JUNGMANN PINTO Minister of Defence of the Federal Republic of Brazil 31 DISCUSSION 2 Security of information space and freedom of access: a contradictory interrelation HAMID KARZAI Ex-President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 34 MAJOR-GENERAL IGOR DYLEVSKY Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff ABDELLATIF LOUDIYI of the Russian Armed Forces 87 Minister Delegate to the Head of Government of the Kingdom of Morocco in charge of the National Defence Administration 36 IRINA YAROVAYA Deputy Chairman of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation 90 EZZAT SAAD Executive Director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs 38 CAPTAIN WEN BAIHUA Professor at the Centre of Information Security of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army National Defence University 92

PLENARY SESSION YAKOV KEDMI European Security: prospects and trends Expert (Israel) 93

ARMY GENERAL VALERY GERASIMOV ALEXANDER RAHR Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Armed Forces — Editor-in-Chief of Russlandkontrovers (Germany) 94 First Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation 42 VLADIMIR SOLOVIEV OPENING OF THE SECOND DAY OF THE CONFERENCE Journalist, member of the Public Council of the Russian Ministry of Defence 95 SERGEY NARYSHKIN HARLAN K. ULLMAN Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation 130 Senior Adviser at the Atlantic Council (USA) 96

MAJED AL TURKI PLENARY SESSION Director of the Saudi Centre for Media and Arab-Russian Studies 97 Asia-Pacific: balance of interests or a military standoff?

NATALYA KASPERSKAYA MAJOR-GENERAL SHAO YUANMING President of InfoWatch Group, co-founder of Kaspersky Lab 98 Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department under China’s Central Military Commission 134

DISCUSSION 3 RASHID ALIMOV BMD: implications for global and regional security Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 136

LIEUTENANT-GENERAL VIKTOR POZNIKHIR DELFIN LORENZANA First Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff Secretary of National Defence of the Republic of the Philippines 138 of the Russian Armed Forces 103 COLONEL-GENERAL CHANSAMONE CHANYALATH MAJOR-GENERAL CAI JUN Minister of National Defence of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Joint Staff Department under China’s Central Military Commission 111 LIEUTENANT-GENERAL PHAM HONG HUONG MAJOR-GENERAL (RETIRED) SERGEY YAGOLNIKOV Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Vietnam People’s Army 142 Chief of the Central Scientific Research Institute of Aerospace Defence orcesF of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation 113 MOHAMAD MALIKI BIN OSMAN Senior Minister of State for Defence of the Republic of Singapore 144 RICHARD WEITZ Director of the Centre for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute (USA) 114 ANATOLY TORKUNOV Rector of MGIMO University 146 LIEUTENANT-GENERAL (RETIRED) EVGENY BUZHINSKIY Chairman of the PIR Center Executive Board 115 PLENARY SESSION Military-to-military engagements: regional aspects DISCUSSION 4 Security in Central Asia: Afghan factor JOSEPH BETI ASSOMO Minister-Delegate at the Presidency of the Republic of Cameroon COLONEL-GENERAL IGOR KOROBOV in Charge of Defence 152 Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed orcesF — Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation 119 VIGEN SARGSYAN Minister of Defence of the Republic of Armenia 154 HANS-JAKOB SCHINDLER Coordinator of the ISIL (Daesh), Al-Qaeda and Taliban Monitoring Team, UN Security Council 123 BADMAANYAMBUU BAT-ERDENE Minister of Defence of Mongolia 156 COLONEL-GENERAL ABDUL HAMID HAMID Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 124 GENERAL-IN-CHIEF VLADIMIR PADRINO LÓPEZ Minister of Defence of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 159 LIEUTENANT-GENERAL SHAVKAT NORMATOV First Deputy Minister of Defence — Chief of the General Staff of the Ministry VALERY SEMERIKOV of Defence of the Republic of Uzbekistan 125 Acting Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation 161 TAALATBEK MASADYKOV Expert (Kyrgyzstan) 127 THOMAS GRAHAM Managing Director at Kissinger Associates (USA) 164 NANDAN UNNIKRISHNAN Vice President and Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (India) 129 2017 /Greetings

Greetings from President of the Russian Federation Message from Secretary-General of the Vladimir Putin to participants of the United Nations António Guterres to the VI Moscow Conference on International Security VI Moscow Conference on International Security

I greet all taking part in the VI Moscow event are serious issues that require discussion that will take place at this I thank the Government of the Russian that value respect for humanity must be delivery of UN assistance to Member Conference on International Security, carefully considered and consolidated forum will give participants an excellent Federation and in particular the our highest priority. States, and increase our impact on the which is taking place under the aegis approaches, above all, the fight against opportunity for sharing experience and Ministry of Defence for organising and At the United Nations, we are commit- ground. I hope that all Member States, of the Russian Defence Ministry. terrorism as the main threat to global information and broadening profes- hosting the VI Moscow Conference on ted to reforming and transforming our including those present here today, will Your meetings have become a tradition, and regional security and stability, and sional contacts. This kind of direct and International Security. capacities to meet the challenges of support this proposal. are rich in practical substance, and also the political and diplomatic resolu- productive dialogue that strengthens This meeting is taking place in a global the 21st century, including terrorism and We are also striving to reform the other always stand out for their substantive tion of numerous conflicts, particularly our partnerships is absolutely essential climate of ongoing conflicts, increased extremism. peace and security pillars of the United programme and influential participants, in the Middle East and North Africa. You today. insecurity, grave human rights violations, Despite member states’ recent efforts, Nations, as well as the UN development who include representatives of defence will give particular attention, of course, I wish you success. organised crime, military build-ups and terrorism has become an increasingly system and the Organization’s manage- ministries, international organisa- to responses to other equally important terrorist attacks, among many other chal- transnational and multidimensional ment. Conflict prevention must remain tions, research and political analysis challenges facing the world today. President of the Russian Federation lenges that threaten peace and stability threat. The Saint Petersburg bomb- a central priority. circles. On your agenda at this year’s I am sure that the open and constructive Vladimir Putin across all continents. There is growing ing earlier this month is among the Through dialogue and partnership, we anxiety that the world is not heading latest attacks that must move us to have a shared responsibility to trans- in “the right direction”, that states are strengthen international counter-­ form today’s climate of uncertainty not fully coming together around shared terrorism cooperation. I wish to express and fragmentation into one of mutual solutions and that global institutions my solidarity with the victims, and I respect and solidarity, towards our are not sufficiently equipped to deal welcome the efforts of Russia and other common goal of peace, stability and effectively with the challenges at hand. countries to improve such collaboration. prosperity for all. The United Nations My plea is therefore for all to recommit to In order to effectively implement the stands ready to support your efforts. the search for joint approaches to tack- UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy, I I wish you a successful conference. ling common concerns. Dialogue remains have proposed to the General Assembly indispensable to re-building confidence the creation of a new Office for Counter- Secretary-General of the United and trust. Recommitment to multilateral Terrorism that will further enhance Nations António Guterres institutions, global norms and principles coordination and coherence in the

/8 /9 Opening of the conference 2017 /Opening of the conference

ARMY GENERAL NIKOLAY PATRUSHEV ARMY GENERAL SERGEY SHOYGU Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation

states that put up effective resistance interests of all states into account. assistance to the legitimate government -- fighting the spread of ISIS ideology; to terrorism is all the more unacceptable. There is a growing need to ensure equal of Syria in its fight with ISIS. This is why we need more effective rights for all states in this area, and to After the liberation of Aleppo the -- drafting a new constitution for Syria; coordination in the framework of the establish an international legal regime terrorists’ capability has been left United Nations and other international for the prevention of conflicts in the greatly degraded. Supported by the -- providing for the needs of the Syrian It is my pleasure to welcome you to the organisations. We also need to decisively information space. It is also necessary to I am glad to welcome you to the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Syrian population through humanitarian VI Moscow Conference on International oppose any attempts to de-list terrorists develop a universal code of responsible VI Moscow Conference on International armed forces continue to strike ISIS support and rebuilding the economy; Security. Holding such meetings on an from UN Security Council sanctions state conduct under UN auspices. Security. and Jabhat al-Nusra targets. Thanks annual basis has already become a regimes. Certain international entities are already Last year representatives of defence to the Russian Centre for Reconciliation -- mine clearance. posi­tive tradition. International terrorism is tightly inter- engaged in the provision of cyber- ministries, government officials and of Opposing Sides, the leaders of some The agenda of this conference includes a twined with transnational organised security — entities such as NATO, for experts from across the world came 1,500 towns and villages all over that It should be noted that a team sent to broad range of pressing global challen­ crime, including the drugs trade, which example. The difference is that NATO together here to focus on threats posed country have now given up their armed Syria by the Russian Humanitarian Mine ges and threats, the main one being of remains an important source of revenue wants to provide cyber-security only by international terrorism. Even though struggle against government forces. Action Centre has detected and defused course international terrorism. for militants. for its own members, whereas Russia this topic dominates discussions on very Coordinated efforts by the guarantors nearly all explosive devices in the ancient This evil has no national identity, and I am talking especially about heroin advocates for equal security for all states. different levels, we have so far failed of the truce in Syria — Russia, Iran, and city of Palmyra. Previously, Russian and requires a collective response. Recruits of Afghan origin, as well as the new Clearly, there are also many other inter­ to reach an agreement on coordinating Turkey — have helped to launch direct Syrian servicemen cleared more than from countries all over the world are psychoactive substances that are now national issues that require our close our efforts against terrorism or to take dialogue between the armed opposi- 1,000 hectares of residential districts joining terrorist ranks. ISIS and other rapidly spreading all over the world. We attention. the decisions that are necessary for its tion and the Syrian government at the in eastern Aleppo. international terror groups are setting need to develop effective mechanisms We are concerned by the situation in eradication. Astana Forum. I would like to emphasise Nevertheless, there is still a lot of work up new bases in many new countries of putting such substances under Ukraine, where civilians continue to die Political differences and lack of confi- that the arrangements that have been left in Syria for sappers. We hope that and regions. national and international controls, in their dozens. dence hinder the consolidation of all reached on ending hostilities in individual the United Nations Mine Action Service In such circumstances, it becomes and to pursue effective intenational Neither can we underestimate the gravity constructive actors in countering this parts of the country are overall being (UNMAS) will soon join these efforts. especially important to pursue effec- cooperation in countering any attempts of the situation on the Korean peninsula, global evil and stand in the way of observed. Moreover, the joint efforts Our proposal is to form a coalition of tive cooperation between the military, at undermining the international drug where the parties, egged on by external implementing the initiative to form a undertaken by the three states have interested states to provide support for security, and law-enforcement agencies. control legal regime. actors, have come to the brink of war. broad international coalition against managed to achieve progress on the mine clearance in Syria. We also consider That cooperation should include infor- Acts of information aggression perpe­ New division lines are being drawn in the terrorism proposed by Russian President issue of separating Jabhat al-Nusra it appropriate to set up a fund in order mation sharing about the movements of trated by certain states represent a Asia-Pacific region. Conflicts in the Middle Vladimir Putin at the 70th Session of the from the constructive opposition on the to pay for the services of specialist foreign militants and the attacks they particular threat to international security. East and North Africa show no sign of UN General Assembly in September 2015. ground. Let me stress that the year-long commercial mine clearance companies, plot; about the forms and methods Fabricated reports and false information abating. The situation in Afghanistan At the same time, activities of terrorist negotiations with representatives of the which will be involved in these efforts. of their activities; and about specific have become a calling card of those who also remains very complicated. groupings intensify, and thousands of previous US administration had failed to We believe that coordinated action by individuals of interest. The Russian use such instruments to encroach on the Russia wants these problems to be civilians flee areas under their control. achieve positive results. international commercial organisations FSB’s International Counter-Terrorism sovereignty and territorial integrity of settled by means of diplomacy. Many militants hide among refugees in The current priorities of our efforts in would enable Syrian territory to be Database is an excellent instrument for independent nations. The same powers I hope that this conference will help us an effort to penetrate different countries Syria are political settlement and the cleared of the explosive remnants of such information sharing. are also doing all they can to preserve to achieve a better understanding of to carry out their criminal plans. country’s return to peace. It will be war as soon as possible. It is also important to make sure that their unilateral advantages in the the root causes of these conflicts, and Given that terrorism still remains the main important to avoid the mistakes that We hope that other constructive pro- combating the terror threat is not used governance of the global information strengthen international security. threat to global security, we deemed it were made in Afghanistan and Iraq posals will also be put forward during as a pretext for putting pressure on infrastructure, and opposing efforts to I am sure that your discussions here will important to return to the agenda of the because the international community did this conference. sovereign states, as currently happens establish an international system of be both constructive and fruitful. last year’s conference. not give the domestic political processes For our part, we are ready to share with in some parts of the world. Any military information security under UN auspices — Syria remains at the front line of the con- and reconstruction in these countries colleagues the experience of organising intervention in the internal affairs of a system that would take the national frontation with ISIS. This is where most the attention they required. We need the use of Russian Aerospace Forces’ of the ISIS strength is concentrated; it is to develop a comprehensive strategy aviation in Syria taking into account from Syria that ISIS controls its militants of joint action in the areas liberated specific features of terrorists’ tactics. elsewhere. That is why Russia’s leader- from militants. Its key elements should In adverse conditions, Russian weapons ship made the decision to provide military include: and military equipment proved their

/12 /13 2017 /Opening of the conference

high combat capability. Regarding the requires close attention and support by agreements are important now, when the The ball is in NATO’s court. It is time that listen to new ideas, and we are ready to cooperative measures, drawing on the humanitarian situation in Syria, in many constructive political and military actors. level of mutual confidence is extremely people stop using Russia as a bugbear, openly discuss all new initiatives that existing positive experience and taking parts of the country it is nothing short The agenda of the VI Moscow Conference low. We regret that NATO ignored the and start rebuilding our relations. could help to strengthen our common into account the potential contribution of catastrophic. Russian servicemen includes European security. It is initiative that would require military air- To conclude, let me thank all the security. One thing is clear: in order to that can be made by each country. deliver and distribute humanitarian important to discuss this topic in the craft to keep their transponders switched participants in this conference for jointly achieve the goal of maintaining I hope that your work at this conference supplies on an almost daily basis. We context of the fight against international on when flying over the Baltic that was their interest and their willingness to peace, we must identify the challenges will be productive and successful. are also grateful to those partners who terrorism as well. Through joint efforts put forward by President of Finland Sauli contribute to its work. We are eager to all of us are facing now, and agree on have answered our call and provided by all the interested states, including Niinistö and backed by Russian President humanitarian assistance for the Syrian Russia, we need to develop an effective Vladimir Putin. Arab Republic. The Russian forces in counter-terrorism strategy. But instead Global security continues to suffer from Syria are cooperating with the regional of seeking to pool our strengths, today’s the ramping up of the missile defence branches of the International Committee Europe fosters anti-Russian phobias and capability in Europe. Bulgaria, Poland, of the Red Cross and of the UN. This whips up the fear of an alleged threat Romania, Spain, and Norway are already enables us to provide assistance without from the East. This scaremongering and involved in practical steps to deploy land- political prejudice to those in need of misrepresentation of the facts distort and sea-based components of the US it across the whole country. The local the real situation. missile defence system. population is also provided with medical I would like to emphasise that Russian In 2017 it will be 45 years since the assistance. Russian mobile hospitals steps to strengthen our own defence signing of the ABM Treaty. Even though have been up and running in Aleppo for capability are a proportionate response Washington has unilaterally pulled out, more than six months now. More than to NATO’s enlargement, the absorption the treaty still remains relevant. The 12,000 Syrians have received quality of the military infrastructure of the decision made by the Soviet Union and medical treatment. These efforts will states bordering Russia into NATO the United States back at that time to certainly continue. infrastructure, and the deployment of sign that treaty only serves to confirm For a long time we have been trying the NATO forces in those states. that deployment of missile defence is to establish cooperation on Syria with NATO is a military-political bloc, not a a destabilising factor that lowers the the United States and with the US-led stamp collectors’ society. It is pursuing threshold for nuclear weapons use. coalition. However, we have not achieved a strategy of projecting power near the Meanwhile, the 20th anniversary of the full mutual understanding yet. In 2015, Russian borders and drawing new states signing of the NATO-Russia Founding Act we signed a memorandum on preventing into its orbit. The recent decision to admit is another occasion to think about how to incidents in Syrian airspace aimed at Montenegro is just the latest example revitalise the key idea of that document: avoiding conflict during air operations. of that strategy. The country’s military “Russia and NATO do not consider each As you know, Russia has suspended capability is negligible. Nevertheless, its other as adversaries” and they are aimed its implementation after the US cruise geographic location will help NATO to at “overcoming the vestiges of earlier missile strike against the Shayrat airfield strengthen its control over the Balkans. confrontation and competition”. in Syria. We consider that strike a gross A similar expansion of NATO’s military We have recently noticed a certain shift violation of international law, moreover, infrastructure is also underway in the in Brussels’ views on how to build rela- Washington’s actions endangered lives Arctic. A modern weapons range has tions with Russia. Europe is increasingly of the Russian military personnel fighting been built in northern Norway, in direct interested in laying the foundation for terrorism in Syria. Such steps are forcing proximity to the Russian border. NATO moving forward and rebuilding mutual us to take additional measures to ensure has stationed its forces there, albeit on confidence. There are growing voices in the safety of troops in the Russian a rotational basis for the time being. favour of resuming dialogue; they argue military grouping. Nevertheless, if the NATO’s activities as part of the air- that pressing ahead with sanctions is United States is genuinely determined to policing mission of air patrols over the pointless. We hope for constructive eradicate “Islamic State” in the country, Baltic have essentially become part dialogue during this conference. we are prepared to support its efforts. of an access denial zone that covers Concrete proposals on resuming coop- Today, the spread of ISIS is not limited Kaliningrad Region and the eastern part eration were voiced by Russian experts only to Syria and Iraq. From Libya to of the Baltic Sea. We regard such actions in July last year, and these proposals West Africa, armed militants are pledg- by NATO as an overt pursuit of its own still remain on the agenda. As a first ing allegiance to “Islamic State”. One interests by means of force. step towards rapprochement, we could of the key reasons for these victories In discussions about European security, undertake an assessment of threats scored by terrorists is the lack of pro- the issue of the importance of observing that determine trends in the evolution of gress in stabilising Libya, where national the agreements on preventing incidents military doctrines and military capability- statehood has been destroyed through a in the air and at sea has been repeat- building programmes. We are ready to collective Western effort. The region now edly brought up. We believe that these discuss these issues at the expert level.

/14 /15 2017 /Opening of the conference

SERGEY LAVROV deployment of US THAAD complexes just discussed this in great detail. The of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation in the south of the peninsula as part unilateral deployment of the US global to Ukraine. A blockade imposed against of the US global missile defence shield missile defence system’s European seg- Donbass continues to have a negative has an especially destabilising effect. ment is an extremely serious obstacle impact on this region and the whole Russia is fully aligned with the con- to strengthening strategic stability. of Ukraine. We expect our partners, solidated position of the international This system is aimed at changing the including our Normandy format part- community regarding Pyongyang’s policy, balance of forces in the area of offensive ners, to more insistently and openly and reaffirms its commitment to all UN arms. The deployment of an anti-missile compel the Kiev authorities to honour Security Council resolutions. However, umbrella can bolster the illusions of their obligations assumed in Minsk. it is obvious that the recent emergence invulnerability and impunity and tempt The entirety of world history shows that that “international cooperation remains contrary, the recent missile strike by of the prospect of using force is fraught one to make unilateral moves while wars are not unleashed by generals of paramount importance in the fight the United States against the Shayrat with catastrophic consequences for the addressing global and regional issues, but by politicians, who bear special against terrorism.” It further says, I airbase in Syria was a blatant violation Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia including lowering the threshold for the responsibility for maintaining peace and quote: “Countering terrorism and violent of international law and an act of aggres- in general. use of nuclear weapons. The develop- security. Obviously, it is impossible to extremism and bringing perpetrators sion against a sovereign state, which Russia is interested in ensuring security ment of non-nuclear strategic weapons accomplish successfully global tasks Over the past five years, the Russian to justice remain top priorities for the only aggravated the existing problems, and stability across the Asia-Pacific and efforts to prevent the conclusion of such as the fight against international Defence Ministry’s Conference on international community.” making the prospect of building a broad region. Having all countries in the region an agreement on the non-deployment terrorism, drug trafficking, organised International Security in Moscow has These fine words have been said before, counter-terrorist front even more distant follow the generally accepted rules of of weapons in space have a negative crime and the proliferation of weapons become a major part of the academic but they have not been turned into and illusive. This begs a comparison behaviour is an essential prerequisite impact on international security. The of mass destruction without renouncing and practical events on military-political reality. However, joint actions and the with what happened in 2003 in Iraq with for success, including respecting inter- unwillingness or inability of the United the philosophy of hegemony and one’s issues held around the world. The high- creation of a broad counter-terrorism the devastating effect on the country national law, peaceful settlement of States and some other countries to ratify own exceptionalism. It is high time level representation of participants, front, which President of Russia Vladimir and the emergence of ISIS as a direct disputes, and non-use of force or threat the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban we return to the basic principles of ensuring that there is serious expert Putin proposed at the UN in September consequence. I think that there is no need of force. Russia has proposed to its part- Treaty (CTBT) gives rise to more and international life formalised in the UN dialogue, and the ambitious agenda 2015, are still being hindered by political to explain to this audience once more ners and proactively promotes at East more questions. Charter, including the sovereign equality covering key current issues make it ambitions and double standards. that a repetition of such ill-advised Asia summits concrete measures to build We are convinced that it is vital to of states, non-interference in domestic possible to conduct a comprehensive Russia continues working to rally the steps could result in a dangerous turn a security and cooperation architecture establish a zone of equal and indivisible affairs and the resolution of disputes by analysis of both risks and threats and international community in the fight of events, including outside the region. on a non-bloc and inclusive basis. We security from Vancouver to Vladivostok, peaceful means. mean we can outline solutions to them. against terrorism. We have submitted a Provocations like the one that took see that these efforts are highly relevant. as formalised by the decisions of OSCE Russia, jointly with its partners and like- The global situation has neither become draft resolution on combating the terrorist place in Khan Sheikhoun on 4 April call China, India and many ASEAN countries summits and those of the Russia-NATO minded countries, will continue to assert more stable nor more predictable. On ideology to the UN Security Council. We for a professional investigation under share our approaches. By the way, the Council. More and more Europeans are solid principles in global affairs and to the contrary, we see tensions growing have urged for the introduction of a com- the auspices of the Organisation for fruitful dialogue within the SCO clearly advocating resumed dialogue in the inter- form the entire new global governance both globally and regionally, the con- prehensive trade and economic embargo the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons demonstrates that international con- ests of effectively addressing numerous system reflecting 21st century imperatives. tinued erosion of international law and on ISIS-controlled territories pursuant to (OPCW) and following a geographically tacts can be effective, when based on the issues for the purpose of establishing We are ready to work together, jointly attempts to use force to promote unilat- Article 41 of the UN Charter, with sanctions balanced approach. This should be an principles of equality, taking into account a European security architecture that search for various options to overcome eral interests, strengthen one’s security to be imposed on embargo violators. open and transparent investigation. each other’s interests and respecting would involve the Russian Federation. our challenges on the basis of equality, at the expense of others’ security and Adopting the rules of responsible behav- We are witnessing attempts to block the right of states to choose their own The resolution of the intra-Ukrainian mutual respect and consideration for each contain the objective development of iour for states when utilising information this process, which only confirms our development model. crisis by completely and consistently other’s interests. We urge all our partners a polycentric world order at any cost. and communication technology (ICT) doubts in the good faith of those trying If we look at another part of the world, implementing the Minsk Package of to do this. Any other road will inevitably These actions are damaging our common is another important objective. These to exploit the 4 April incident in order to the Euro-Atlantic region, one cannot but Measures should help restore mutual lead us all into a dead end. objective — which is combining our rules should make it impossible to use shift the agenda, abandon UN Security feel alarmed over its considerable resid- trust. Unfortunately, the “war hawks” Good luck for the rest of your conference. efforts to deal with real rather than ICT for military purposes or interference Council Resolution 2254 and advance ual conflict potential, which is largely are gaining the upper hand in Kiev. imaginary threats. in internal affairs. The rules must also with the long-standing idea of regime fuelled by NATO’s unilateral actions. Armed provocations continue along the The upcoming panel discussions at the prevent international terrorists from change in Syria. Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu has demarcation line, as proved by reports conference will focus on the struggle using ICT. Within the UN, Russia pushes Of course, the surge in terrorist activity against international terrorism, which for devising a universal criminal law should not overshadow other danger- has grown to an unprecedented scale. convention on countering cyber-crime. ous challenges the world is facing today. For the first time in human history, We will never succeed in our fight against The deteriorating situation around the terrorists want to create their own terrorism unless multiple conflicts are Korean peninsula is a matter of grave state, a caliphate with its own territory, resolved, primarily in the Middle East concern as Pyongyang continues its population and inhuman ideology. Much and North Africa. The ceasefire in Syria nuclear missile programmes, while the is being said at various levels about the that was facilitated by Russia, Turkey US and its regional allies have dispro- need to redouble efforts against this and Iran in late 2016 and the launch of portionately stepped up their military global evil. The Joint Communiqué by the Astana process contribute to the activity under the pretext of the the G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting says intra-Syrian inclusive dialogue. On the “North Korean threat”. The accelerated

/16 /17 2017 /Opening of the conference

ARMY GENERAL ALEXANDER BORTNIKOV millions of refugees have fled their homes and by their new social environment. several Western European states, and Director of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation in search of safety, food, and shelter. The Such rejection gives rise to aggression. the United States. Nevertheless, we bulk of these migrants are young people, Violence happens when the authorities believe that we have yet to utilise the who for a number of reasons are often cannot cope, or when they neglect the full potential of joint efforts in combating unable quickly to adapt to conditions in situation. the global terror threat. We should set their host countries. In such circumstances, the reaction of our political disagreements aside and The secret services must now figure out indigenous communities often involves revise our views on the terror problem how to work with this environment — or a surge in right-wing radicals and the to make our positions and approaches in this environment — to react in a timely neo-Nazi groups that call for action to as close as possible. No one is going to manner to new problems and address be taken against migrants. The social do this job for us. capability suggests that the coun- All of this makes it necessary for us, the causes that foment protest, radical- climate becomes tense, crime goes The Federal Security Service of the tries engaged in the struggle against despite our remaining differences, to isation and incite people to deliberately up — and that opens up new opportu- Russian Federation is always open to terrorism still lack a coordinated pursue coordinated practical steps in commit extremist and terrorist deeds. nities for terrorists. There are numerous cooperation in this area. approach. We believe that in order to political, military, and secret services The situation with refugees and with examples to illustrate this, as evidenced I am confident that the results of this put an end to such Cold War archaisms dimensions. migration in general requires our close by intelligence gathered by the secret conference will help us to make another On behalf of the Federal Security Service and build a truly effective anti-terror Joint work by the intelligence and law- attention. We especially need to provide services and the findings of relevant step towards a more peaceful world of the Russian Federation, let me wel- front, we need to develop a shared enforcement agencies should aim, first ideological support for the integration of criminal investigations. based on the principles of stability, come you to the VI Moscow Conference set of standards that would inform and foremost, to establish a shared pool displaced people. The processes taking The Russian FSB has a wealth of experi­ security, and mutual respect. on International Security. the logic of coordinated action. The of information about foreign militants, place in the communities of migrants ence of practical multilateral and bilat- I hope your work here will be successful This conference has a well-deserved best framework for such efforts is their supporters, and persons who, and displaced people are often caused by eral cooperation with the secret services and productive. reputation as one of the most respect- undoubtedly the United Nations. according to available evidence, have their rejection by the host communities of the CIS states, members of the SCO, able venues for exchanging views on The problem of eradicating terrorism been involved in terrorist attacks. pressing international issues, and for has been at the forefront of the political Another important component in combat- discussing measures to neutralise agenda all over the world in recent years. ing international terrorism is depriving it the challenges and threats facing the It is discussed at various domestic and of various resources. We need to operate international system. international venues. This is now reality, on a permanent and in-depth basis within These challenges include international not mere declarations. the environment from which international terrorism. Its global nature is demon- But we have to admit that despite terror groups draw their support. strated by the fact that, despite all the numerous calls for a pooling of efforts We have seen in Syria, Iraq, and other defensive measures being taken, almost on the anti-terror front, and some parts of the world that many people have every single part of our planet has successful operations by individual become prepared to sacrifice themselves suffered terrorist attacks in recent years. countries and coalitions, there are few as suicide attackers in the name of terror- The leaders of the largest terror groups signs of the problem being any closer ist ideas. This has become a clear trend. such as “Islamic State”, Jabhat al-Nusra, to resolution. Witness, for example, the The spread of terrorist ideology must and the remnants of organisations like recent high-profile attacks in Nice, Berlin, be reversed by means of a broad and Al-Qaeda, have come to realise that Istanbul, London, Saint Petersburg, energetic counter-propaganda campaign they are facing total annihilation in Stockholm, and Paris. aimed at fostering intolerance of terror the areas they used to dominate. That We have repeatedly warned at various and preventing potential new recruits from is why they are now resorting to new forums of the threat posed by Islamist being drawn into the ranks of extremists tactics. For example, they are sending terrorist groups and foreign militants and terrorists. This approach should be at more militants to Afghanistan, Yemen, to the international community; these the foundation of the anti-terror strategy and to areas deep inside the African predictions have proved accurate. being pursued by the sound part of the continent, where they have begun to We see that after being brainwashed and humanity. build bases and field stations. In essence, trained in armed conflict zones, having The Middle East and North Africa remain they are trying to establish a large new established the necessary contacts, the key sources of the spread of the terror terror network. Additionally, reports and having acquired the skills needed threat to other parts of the globe. The are coming in that ISIS is in talks with to disguise criminal activities, militants foreign powers that orchestrated the other terrorist organisations to discuss return to their home countries or settle “Arab Spring” were deliberately aiming for possible merger. At the same time, even in new ones, which have never faced the a so-called “democratisation” of several without a merger, individual terrorist terror threat in previous years. countries in the region and for the creation outfits still possess formidable resources The terrorists’ operations are becoming of chaos there. This has led to severe to carry on with their attacks. ever more sophisticated, their propa- turmoil in those countries, whose legit- The fact that international terrorist ganda more aggressive, and the targets imate governments are now waging war organisations still retain significant and methods of their attack more diverse. against armed terror groups. As a result,

/18 /19 Plenary session Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

Moderator

Lieutenant-General Alexander Fomin Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation 2017 /Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

ARUN JAITLEY the Afghan government to deal with cooperation to address this threat. We India’s own security environment are Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs, violence as well as promote develop- should also resolutely resist opportun- widely known. Addressing the current Defence Minister of the Republic of India ment are essential. istic efforts by some states to support situation should acknowledge this India believes that a secure, stable, and terrorist proxies by training, funding or aspect and address issues from a broader peaceful Afghanistan is achievable with providing safe havens to such groups for perspective to be fully effective. the continued commitment of the inter- their limited objectives. Another aspect of the current security national community. India has provided Distinctions are still sought to be made scenario is the growing salience of assistance and support to the friendly between good and bad terrorists, despite non-traditional threats to security. people of Afghanistan. We will continue all the evidence and experience to the Effective management of cyberspace has to do as much as we can. We also look contrary. Terrorism will recoil on those emerged as a key national security chal- has stood the test of time. Our cooper- development. However, we need to forward to working in tandem with all who nurture it. lenge for many countries. Humanitarian ation in defence and security matters manage this change effectively for our parties that share similar objectives The global nature of this menace and assistance and disaster relief require- in particular has been robust. Russia is mutual benefit. in Afghanistan. We welcome recent the need for a coherent and sustained ments are also increasing, fuelled both India’s foremost defence partner. There are also worrying signs of economic efforts by Russia to hold consultations international response to it is now widely by man-made and natural causes. I look forward to my meeting with protectionism. New barriers to migration on Afghanistan, in which India had also acknowledged. Nearly all countries pres- India will continue to play its due role It is indeed a pleasure for me to Minister Shoygu later today to discuss and the closing of borders are other actively participated. ent at this conference are taking proactive in the maintenance of regional and address the VI Moscow Conference on how we can together further deepen our elements of such an approach. However, The scourge of terrorism remains the steps to counter international terrorism. international peace and stability. India’s International Security. I am honoured defence ties. such efforts are unlikely to be able to primary security challenge for all India will steadfastly partner all friendly rapid growth over the past two decades to represent India at this important Over the past few months, India and address the complex issues involved. peaceful countries. Russia continues countries confronted with the challenge has also helped elevate the economic event and thank Minister Shoygu for Russia have taken steps to further The growing role and importance of to be a target, with the attack in Saint of terrorism. We have successfully trajectory of our smaller neighbours. his invitation. strengthen the engagement between our Asia is a striking aspect of the changed Petersburg still fresh in our memory. addressed this threat for over three With our renewed emphasis on regional At the outset, I congratulate the organis- armed forces. We will shortly negotiate international environment. For the I wish to convey India’s strong solidarity decades. We will continue to strengthen connectivity, the focus on Act East policy, ers on the excellent arrangements made a new armed forces training agreement. foreseeable future, Asian economies with Russia and our sympathy for the ongoing cooperation in counter-terrorism the ongoing effort to engage with Gulf and the programme drawn up for this Later this year, Indian and Russian armed will continue to be the drivers of global victims and the families affected by of with our partners. countries, Africa as well as the wider conference. forces will hold the INDRA tri-services growth. Asia could also be emerging as this dastardly attack. Another serious challenge facing us Indian Ocean region, India is now at the The participation this year is impressive, joint military exercises in Russia. This will the stage for competition between large Terrorism is being reinvented in newer today is the resurgence of territorial centre of a dynamic web of partnerships. with representation from a large number be an historic occasion as it will be the and rising powers. and even more dangerous manifesta- disputes in the maritime domain. Our economic and diplomatic engage- of countries. The Moscow Conference first time that India and Russia are taking Europe appears pre-occupied with the tions. The manipulation of young minds Maritime territorial disputes are par- ment with the Eurasian region is also has established itself as one of the most part in joint exercises in such a format future of the EU project. We are also by fundamentalist groups using new ticularly complex and need to be man- a top priority for India. Building on our important global forums for discussions with each other or with any other country. witnessing a sharpening of divisions in technologies and social media has aged effectively, lest they undermine strong ties with Russia, we also hope on contemporary security matters. India deeply appreciates Russia’s sup- the European continent not seen since already caused long-term damage to the regional order as well as structures to steadily enhance our linkages with The theme of the current session covers port at difficult periods in our history. the Cold War. our societies. One manifestation of this and processes that help maintain peace Central Asian countries. emerging trends in global security. It is This unwavering support from Russia is In West Asia, turmoil thrown up by is the recent string of lone-wolf attacks and stability. Defence and security cooperation is an appropriate that we discuss this subject reflected in the depth of public support in rapid political changes in the region in many countries. In the Asia-Pacific region, the past increasingly important aspect of India’s in Moscow, which is one of the key India for building a stronger partnership has yet to be fundamentally resolved. On the positive side, the territory decades of peaceful growth have trans- diplomatic engagements. We have been centres for decision-making on global with Russia. These changes have also led to the rise acquired by ISIS in the Middle East has formed that region into one of the most building greater military-to-military ties, security issues in keeping with Russia’s I am confident that India and Russia can of groups with extremist, fundamen- begun to be effectively challenged by dynamic engines of the global economy. sharing best practices, enhancing our significance and influence in world affairs. continue to work together on all issues talist or terrorist ideologies, whose several countries. This is reassuring and We need to ensure that the continued training cooperation as well as tie-ups As a long-standing friend and strategic of mutual interest, whether bilaterally or activities have forced open sectarian should be taken to its logical conclusion. prosperity of the region is not put at risk. in defence industry and research and partner, India supports an expanded role multilaterally in the framework of BRICS, fissures and violence. Cooperation between major powers in India believes that the rights of freedom development for mutual benefit. These by Russia in global affairs, especially in SCO, and other forums. The situation in Afghanistan continues this effort can become a template for of navigation and overflight as well as efforts are making significant progress. our shared neighbourhood. Ours is an age of rapid and unpredict- to be challenging. Facile assessments similar steps elsewhere. unimpeded commerce should be ensured. I am confident that these partnerships The fact is that the problems confronting able change. Nowhere is the pace and that imply there is a choice between the However, even as we work to eliminate the These are vital to India’s own economic will contribute to a more stable and the world today cannot be solved by any direction of these changes faster and evil forces at play in that country are breeding grounds of terrorism in West Asia, engagement with the Indo-Pacific region. peaceful environment as well as spur one country or group of countries but more complex than in the geopolitical endangering the gains made by the brave the dangers of such elements returning to The recent escalation of tensions in the greater economic growth and shared require an inclusive approach. and strategic arena. Afghan people with the support of the their home countries has become a major Korean peninsula is a matter of concern. development in India, our region and I welcome the Russian Defence Minister’s The continued unpredictability in ties international community over the past challenge. We need to encourage closer The linkages between proliferation in beyond. opening address to the conference, which between major powers recently has decade and more. The recent condemn- information exchanges and intelligence that region with the deterioration of underlined Russia’s intent to seek new brought new uncertainties to the fore. able and dastardly attack on the Afghan avenues for regional and global stability The implications of these developments national security forces in Mazar-i-Sharif and a constructive approach towards are difficult to fully ascertain at this stage. was a sharp reminder of this. resolving conflicts. On the one hand, these reflect a wider A policy of zero tolerance towards India and Russia share a special and diffusion of power in the international violence and terrorism and continued privileged strategic partnership, which system, which by itself is a positive efforts to consolidate the capacity of

/22 /23 2017 /Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

COLONEL-GENERAL SAKEN ZHASUZAKOV Given Kazakhstan’s knowledge of UN Security Council Committee on Iran. existing security challenges and threats. Minister of Defence of the Republic of Kazakhstan regional specifics and strong bilat- The chairmanship in these sanctions In this regard, the Ministry of Defence eral relations with all stakeholders, committees will enable us to make of the Republic of Kazakhstan will Kazakhstan was entrusted to chair more active use of the platform of continue its policy of intensifying the Security Council Committee on the UN Security Council to promote and expanding international military Afghanistan/Taliban. In addition, counter-terrorism initiatives. cooperation in both multilateral and Kazakhstan also chairs the Security Strongly condemning all forms of bilateral formats. Council committees on ISIS (Daesh) and terrorism, Kazakhstan will continue I am convinced that an open dialogue Al-Qaeda and on Somalia and Eritrea. contributing to international efforts at this conference will promote the Taking into account the interna- for de-escalating global tension, correct understanding of mutual trust, and security in the world and in the consultations to find a peaceful solu- tional recognition of Kazakhstan’s addressing the existing problems and the integral understanding of security and region. Kazakhstan firmly believes tion to the Syrian crisis and fostering contribution to the resolution of the ensuring security. the common needs for cooperation, make that terrorism can be eradicated only further negotiations in all formats and situation around the Iranian nuclear The issues discussed at the conference a comprehensive contribution to security through joint efforts. at all levels. programme and the need for further are certainly relevant in terms of and help formulate recommendations for Therefore, the initiatives of President of The Republic of Kazakhstan provided development of political and economic combining the efforts of the military effectively countering the challenges and The Moscow Conference on Inter- the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan humanitarian aid to the Syrian Arab ties with Iran, Kazakhstan intends to departments of our countries to elab- threats to international security. national Security is becoming a Nazarbayev on the creation of the Global Republic in the form of medicines participate actively in the work of the orate effective steps to prevent the traditional and important platform for Counter-Terrorism Network under the and food, with a total weight of 500 discussing and assessing the nature auspices of the United Nations and tonnes. At present, delivering a second of current challenges and threats to the drafting of the Comprehensive consignment of humanitarian cargo is regional and international security, as Convention on International Terrorism under consideration. well as for elaborating proposals how are highly relevant. As a non-permanent member of the to address them using peaceful means. Kazakhstan is interested in a politically UN Security Council in 2017–2018, The format of the conference promotes stable, economically sustainable and the Republic of Kazakhstan regards an effective exchange of views and safe global development. counter-terrorism to be a priority for cooperation between our countries on We have a regular political dialogue concentrating the efforts of the world topical issues of international security. at all levels with our partners for community. Today, the fight against terrorism strengthening international and Kazakhstan intends to use its mem- and extremism has rightly become a regional security and pursue a policy bership in the UN Security Council key item on the international agenda. of combining efforts to jointly address to strengthen stability and security Terrorism has become transnational, the current challenges and threats to in the Central Asian region that is with no state protected against the national security. represented in this important body of threat of terrorist attacks. At the initiative of Head of State the international organisation for the Currently, the main terrorist threat Nursultan Nazarbayev, the capital first time in the history of the United comes from radical militant extremist of Kazakhstan, Astana, has become Nations. The Republic of Kazakhstan and terrorist groups, whose activities a platform for a political dialogue to intends to raise security issues that are not limited to the Middle East only. resolve the Syrian conflict. are important for the region to turn The leaders of religious extremist The inter-Syrian talks in the capital it into a “zone of peace, cooperation organisations are considering the of Kazakhstan laid the foundation for and security”. possibility of extending their influence further dialogue between the opposing Moreover, our country pays special to other regions, including Central Asia. forces to normalise relations inside the attention to the resolution of the situ- Essentially, emissaries of terrorist country. For the first time ever, previ- ation in Afghanistan, since sustainable organisations export new models of ously uncompromising opponents had security in Central Asia is impossible terrorist and extremist activity from a face-to-face dialogue, demonstrating without achieving lasting peace and the areas of combat operations to the their intention to establish a political stability in this country. countries within the region, with the dialogue for resolving the conflict. Kazakhstan also intends to use the Security number of supporters of nontraditional The key priority is a sustainable cease- Council’s platform to promote the inter- religious movements increasing. fire and conflict resolution through national initiatives of the Head of State in Inaction and ignoring such a threat compromise. It is important to prevent the field of nuclear non-proliferation and can lead to negative consequences in further escalation of the conflict and to combating terrorism and extremism, which the future. continue searching for peaceful ways are set out in the Manifesto “The World. In this regard, Kazakhstan has con- to overcome disagreements. The 21st Century” and are an integral part sistently advocated fostering of con- In this context, Kazakhstan will of the agenda of Kazakhstan within the ditions that would promote stability continue promoting multilateral UN Security Council.

/24 /25 2017 /Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

BRIGADIER GENERAL HOSSEIN DEHGHAN created over the past three decades by -- Protecting and supporting the conti- fabricated charges, opposes any pro- Minister of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran the United States, and of Washington’s nuity of people’s sovereignty by the duction, possession, and use of chemical aspiration to strengthen its global dom- key actors and guarantors of peace weapons. Iran will abide by the Joint inance. The only way out of this crisis is and security. Comprehensive Plan of Action — but to transition to a new world order based it will put up determined resistance in on the principles of multipolarity and The Islamic Republic of Iran believes the event of any threats from the United rejection of dominance and any regional that neither the United States, nor any States or other states that have been or global hegemony. A key instrument of other state can achieve their political intimidated into submission by the establishing such a world order is a sense and expansionist goals in the Middle dominant regime. Iran strongly believes of partnership between all nations. Such East, North Africa, and the subcontinent that peaceful use of nuclear energy is and especially the failure to meet the terror and violence; ending the provision a sense is a valuable and unprecedented by supporting war, terror, and terrorist a natural right of all states, and that demands and historical aspirations of of political, military, and financial support opportunity for implementing constructive organisations. no agency can stand in the way of that the people of Palestine; to terrorists; coming to the aid of the plans, providing global security, and Iran believes that unless armed terror- right. At the same time, we believe legitimate governments; upholding achieving a sustainable regional and ism in Syria and Iraq is destroyed, all its that the international community must -- Growing tensions between the Korean the demands and the legitimate will global development. sponsors, large and small — including demonstrate its will to achieve nuclear First of all, I would like to thank His peninsula and the West; of the people; providing humanitarian We believe that this new world order Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United disarmament. At the very least, in the Excellency, the Russian Minister of assistance to the victims of war; helping should be built on the following States — will soon come under ter- Middle East we should disarm Israel, Defence, General Sergey Shoygu, for -- The continued support by the United to achieve stability, security, and peace, principles: rorist attacks. stripping it of all its weapons of mass his invitation to attend the VI Moscow States, Israel, United Kingdom, and and eliminating the various problems Iran believes that the united front formed destruction — including chemical and Conference on International Security. Saudi Arabia for the Takfiri terrorist faced by the nations. However, in such -- Joint international efforts in fighting in Syria by Russia, Iran, and Syria’s nuclear — to ensure a certain level of This event is an excellent opportunity movements, and the efforts by these oppressed states as Syria, Iraq, and terrorism, extremism, and the forces own legitimate government and the security in the region. for us to discuss global security events, states to maintain a military balance Yemen, only the Russian Federation, Iran, that seek violence; courageous people of that country, will The ridiculous and oft-repeated expres- analyse the challenges facing us all, and between these movements and the and the legitimate government and the defeat the terrorists, and at the end of sion “all options are on the table” cannot make an emphasis on effective rules and regional governments; people of Syria are waging a genuine -- Respect for national sovereignty and that campaign we will achieve a more be an instrument of extracting political or mechanisms for building a new global war on terror. In Iraq, the war on terror non-interference; secure and stable region and planet. military concessions from other states. security order. -- Growing and strengthening presence is fought only by Iran, together with the The Islamic Republic of Iran, led by a We believe that if the crisis on the Korean The post-Cold-War international security in other countries of Takfiri terrorists, Iraqi people and government. -- Mutual respect, constructive nego- sense of human and humanitarian peninsula were to move towards military regime has proved chaotic, uncertain, and who have suffered defeat in Iraq and In this process, the Americans, with the tiations, and choosing reason and responsibility, is determined to con- options for resolution that would have unpredictable. It is a transitional security Syria, and the growing terrorist activ- help of their new political doctrine of the dialogue over weapons; tinue providing support for the lawful devastating global consequences. Global regime, even though it was based on ity in these regions. “commercialisation of security”, are trying and legitimate governments of Syria security requires the United States to such principles and rules as recognising to install a new form of global fascism -- Building and strengthening intra- and Iraq, for the oppressed people of change its behaviour, relinquish its policy the nations’ right to deciding their own We have all seen double standards and secure their own pre-eminent role in regional ties. Yemen, and for the decisive and fateful of global meddling and warmongering, fate, respect for national sovereignty, being used in dealing with terrorism the international system. This policy has struggle against the terrorist and Takfiri and end its support for the decrepit non-interference in the internal affairs and terrorists. To our great regret, it resulted in the creation of false threats, In this new world order, the international movements in the entire region. Israeli security scenarios in the region. of other states, and illegality of the use has become clear that international and in the division of labour between institutions for protecting peace and We firmly believe that the crises in such Any course of action which is based on of force. But, after illegal steps taken legal institutions and the leaders of the regional and extra-regional allies security will be able to fulfil their mission states as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and other steps to prevent Iran from expanding its by the West — especially the United human rights movements idly stand by in instilling xenophobia — especially irrespective of the will of the great powers. states in the region do not have a military influence in the region, and which ignores States — and after their violation of while innocents are slaughtered, and against such countries as Russia, China, Building this new world order will require solution. The only way of resolving them historical facts of how states in the region these principles in various parts of the while fear and panic spread. Millions are and Iran, in order to justify their presence, the following: is internal negotiations, without any and the relations between them were world, this security regime is now facing fleeing war-torn countries; those who the building of their new bases, and an foreign meddling. formed, is doomed to failure. Successive numerous, complex, and multi-faceted remain are left without shelter, while even greater meddling in various regions, -- Ending the militaristic strategies and We will continue to pursue our cooper- US defeats in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and military and security challenges. As the the provision of humanitarian aid is especially the West Asia, East Asia, and destructive meddling by the United ation with a strong Russia in countering Afghanistan are evidence of that fact. space of insecurity, instability and chaos limited. The oppressed governments and Southeast Asia, as well as a return to States; the terrorist movements. In this process, To conclude, I would like to thank once again expands, this regime has come to pose peoples who have suffered aggression, the Cold War. They are plundering the we will rationally and soberly plan and His Excellency General Shoygu. I hope this a serious risk for international security. pillage, and destruction, are not being riches of these regions under the pretext -- Ending the provision of support to execute the necessary steps to counter conference will make an effective step In this context, let me draw your atten- protected; on the contrary, support and of providing security for their allies. In terrorists by the United States, United and neutralise plans and actions by the towards mutual understanding and tion to the numerous global security encouragement are provided to terrorists essence, they are trying to prevent coun- Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and other states that sponsor terrorists on the cooperation between the world’s nations threats posed by: and aggressors. tries around the world from achieving sponsors; strategic, political, and operational level. and peoples in order to achieve a better We urgently need all states to demon- what they need the most, which is peace, The Islamic Republic of Iran, which has global and regional order. -- The irresponsibility of the new US strate their earnest determination to security, and sustainable development. -- Recognising the historical right of been the greatest victim of chemical president’s statements, actions, and combat terrorism and to eliminate Let me emphasise that the instability, the people of Palestine to return to weapons, and which has for many decisions; the factors that give rise to terrorist the lack of security, and the violence the occupied territories, and enabling years suffered from the most inhumane, movements. What our world currently and terror our world is facing are the them to decide their own fate; illegal, and ruthless sanctions under -- The ongoing crisis in the Middle East, needs most is a clear condemnation of result of the conditions that have been

/26 /27 2017 /Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

KHAWAJA MOHAMMAD ASIF that lasting peace and prosperity can reciprocated. The ongoing human rights to regroup or re-establish their networks. Federal Minister of Defence of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan only be achieved through political dia- violations in Indian Occupied Kashmir The hardcore terrorists and perpetrators logue and consultations between the are evidence of the aggressive policy of violence are also being tried under an stakeholders and not through military to suppress a legitimate struggle by effective judicial system. We are making interventions alone. the people of Jammu and Kashmir huge efforts to institute an effective While there have been few tactical gains for their right of self-determination. border control management system against ISIS, the world remains deeply Unfortunately, India continues to shy across the Durand line. We expect the concerned with the continuous wars away from any plausible diplomatic Afghan Government to also take more in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen which have approach for resolution of the Kashmir effective measures against the perpe- created space for the non-state actors. issue. It has instead adopted an indirect trators responsible for various terror consultative and egalitarian approach increase in terrorism, which implies that These wars have embroiled regional and strategy to distract Pakistan from activities in Pakistan. We have remained to manage our shared challenges such the world community has not been able extra-regional countries which have Kashmir through proxies in Pakistan committed to play our due share and role as terrorism, socio-economic inequality, to address the core political and social aggravated the chaos, refugee influx, and ceasefire violations across the Line in achieving elusive peace and stability climate change, demography, as well issues. Consequently, the terrorist and internal destabilisation. It is sad to of Control. We urge international com- in Afghanistan and fully support an as ongoing conflicts in hotspots like networks have expanded across North observe that lessons from the recent munity to take notice of Indian atrocities Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace At the outset, I would like to thank our Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Africa, the Middle East and Afghanistan. past have not been learnt despite failure and human rights violations and play process while looking forward for further hosts on my behalf and on behalf of the North Africa. Thus, to deliberate and While religion is being exploited by of similar policies in Iraq, Afghanistan, their role in resolving this long-standing strengthening our bilateral relations to Government of Pakistan for inviting and explore the causes and ramifications most of them, analysis shows that and Libya. Unfortunately, today we have issue as per UN resolutions. deny space for the enemies of peace on affording me the opportunity to share of these security challenges is in the socio-economic factors such as youth a combination of sectarian and ethnic Pakistan continues to suffer from per- either side of the border. Our sincerity Pakistan’s perspective on the issues of larger interest of all nations, therefore unemployment, drug trade, corruption, violence ravaging the region and brining petual state of conflict between different over Afghanistan can be gauged by the global security and challenges of the 21st exploring viable and pragmatic solutions violence, and internal displacement of misery for the people who are forced stakeholders in Afghanistan. Hence, a fact that we have been hosting about century. I would also like to compliment for enduring peace is a need of the hour local populace plays a major role in to seek refuge in other countries. It is peaceful and stable Afghanistan is in our three million refugees from Afghanistan the Defence Ministry of the Russian and I believe this conference is a very promoting terrorism. It is thus important our shared responsibility that these interest. We fully support an Afghan- for the last 37 years. Federation for hosting this important important step in this regard. to implement policies to address these refugees are treated humanely and owned and Afghan-led peace process As a result of our resolute struggle activity, which provides us a useful Extremism and terrorism can be best associated causes. rehabilitated besides making all-out with the assistance of international against terrorism and extremism, platform to interact with policymakers described as manifestation of “a dis- What we also witness is the changing efforts to bring peace and stability in community. Let me also assure you Pakistan is transforming fast to become from across the globe. It also allows us tracted state of mind” of individuals and character of war from the typical state their native countries, which is only pos- that Pakistan does not believe in any net security provider instead of security to visit the Russian Federation which groups who possess “self-interpreted set vs state conflicts to the more asym- sible through a candid political dialogue distinction between terrorist outfits, as seeker and is set to achieve economic is home of a great nation with strong of beliefs and ideologies”. The spectre metrical conflict and to low-intensity between the actual stakeholders. has been manifested during Operation prosperity by reaping economic bene- traditions, rich history and one of the of terrorism has affected the very armed conflicts between the state We must also realise that extremist Zarb-e-Azab and Operation Raad Al fits from projects like China-Pakistan most important players in the emerging fabric of the societies and is posing an and violent transnational non-state elements garner support and affiliates Fassad undertaken by our military and Economic Corridor as part of the One polycentric world order. existential threat to human civilisation actors. Aimed at spreading chaos and by exploiting polarisation. So, there is people. Pakistan has conducted large Belt, One Road initiative which is going The 21st century is viewed as an era in its entirety. Experience shows that confusion through organised media a need to develop stronger counter- number of anti-terrorist operations in to be not only a game changer for of hope and dynamism on the premise regions having deep-rooted socio-eco- manipulation and propaganda, a narratives based on interfaith harmony, the troubled areas during operation Pakistan but for the region and beyond. of matured globalisation, amazing nomic inequality, political or ideological sophisticated psychological war is also economic equality and cross-cultural Zarb-e-Azab. Presently remnants of In the end I would like to reiterate that technological innovations, and the oppression and polarised societies are an essential characteristic of the new mutual respect to ensure that extrem- terrorist networks are being cleared classical 20th century approaches to controversial expectation of democratic breeding grounds for terrorism. Further, concept of war. We have observed that ists are denied the space which they under the Operation Raad Al Fassad. conflict resolution have become obso- peace. However, we have witnessed states with political instability, terrorist organisations like ISIS, Taliban, seek. Concurrently, it is the responsibil- Here, I must state that ongoing oper- lete in the context of the complexity, that it continues to be marred by whether by design or as a conse- Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabaab and their affiliates ity of the world community to urgently ations have been extremely successful asymmetry and intractability of con- accentuated regional disputes, political quence of external interventions, do not confine themselves to mere acts address some of the long-standing which has been widely acknowledged by temporary nature of conflicts, notably instabilities, rising socio-economic also remain susceptible to spread of terrorism. In fact, they use terror as conflicts of the world. From Palestine to the world community. I can proudly say in the Middle East, North Africa region challenges, widespread transnational of transnational terrorist networks. the main weapon to establish their rule Kashmir we have a history of suppres- that Pakistan has fought the menace and Afghanistan. Prevailing patterns of terrorism, and a fragile international We witnessed Al-Qaeda exploiting in- alongside putting in place systems of sion and denial of basic human rights of terrorism successfully for which we major armed conflicts have been trans- system to handle all this. Consequently, stability in Afghanistan while ISIS is terror financing, brutal justice dispen- despite their legal as well as legitimate have paid a heavy price to the tune of muting at extraordinary speed, which multiple actors have gained prominence also an offshoot of its arrays in parts sation, and creating an environment freedom struggles. tens of thousands of precious lives and is animated due to “transnational con- thereby changing the “balance of power of the Middle East. While we strive for of fear to run parallel governance. Kashmir issue is a strategic flash point billions of dollars in the economy. nectors” that act like veins and arteries equation” across the globe and causing peace, stability, and prosperity, the Another interesting phenomenon is the in South Asia and if left unresolved, it I would like to share that our military in linking local and global aspects with gradual dissuasion of the so-called uni- sustenance of any success depends change in the notion of victory in wars. has potential to threaten the stability operations concurrently included unprecedented rapidity. These are times polar international system. The evolving not solely on kinetic actions alone but Unlike in previous years, today, wars and peace of the entire region. Sooner comprehensive socio-economic uplift for introspection, for a dispassionate polycentric world order is characterised more so on non-kinetic initiatives such do not end or are won or bring stability rather than later, resolution of Kashmir strategy in disturbed regions. After a and objective review of our policies to by a resurgence of new centres of power, as social justice and corrections in ideo- through regime change or territorial issue must be achieved according to successful completion of kinetic oper- address the global security challenges. renewed economic interdependencies logical overturns, through the stacking gains. The case studies of Afghanistan, the UN resolutions. I must share that ations, we are consolidating our gains We need to devise policies based on and realignment of politico-strategic of correct narratives. Over the past few Yemen, Iraq, Egypt, and Libya would all all the overtures of peace and sincere under a comprehensive National Action the principles of equality, social justice, alliances, while it seeks a more years we have witnessed a phenomenal substantiate my assertion. This implies efforts made by Pakistan are not being Plan to deny any space to the terrorists and political stability wherein human

/28 /29 2017 /Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

rights rather than economic profits are and equitable manner that we can hope such interactions will help the world RAUL BELENS JUNGMANN PINTO the basis of international relations. Our for a world of peaceful co-existence. community in evolving strategies to Minister of Defence of the Federal Republic of Brazil basic focus should remain on human In the end please allow me to once again overcome the security challenges of security by addressing the issues having thank General Sergei Shoygu, Defence the 21st century. a cross-cutting impact on our societies. Minister of the Russian Federation It is only through facing these problems and the organisers of this interna- upfront and dealing with them in a just tional conference with the hope that

both positive and hostile goals; and same time, we have no qualms about the resurgence of controversies and standing up for our interests, we fulfil tensions that many believed had already all our obligations and we took part in been put to rest once and for all. two world wars. There is an unprecedented level of Brazil continues to make efforts to pre- It is an honour for me to take part in the uncertainty and dangerous fluctuations vent any possible threats — but at the VI Moscow Conference on International on the international arena. The world same time it is prepared to neutralise Security. I would like to start by expres­ is losing the stability that we all crave them if such a need arises. sing Brazil’s solidarity with the victims with amazing speed. We believe that for developing countries of the terrorist attack on the Saint Difficult situations with a clear potential such as ours, multipolarity opens up Petersburg metro system. We once for conflict are degenerating into genu- opportunities for contributing to global again decisively condemn terrorism. It is ine crises in the most extraordinary and governance and stability. It also helps to a duty of every free state to prevent and irresponsible way. strengthen the rule of law and to ensure to combat this perverse phenomenon, Some aspects that remind us all of justice. At the same time, key interna- inspired by mindless hatred for the most the Cold War appear to be stimulating tional institutions still remain less than important values of democratic societies. a new arms race. We are witnessing inclusive with regard to the so-called At the same time, as we wage war on a resurgence of religious and ethnic developing nations. A good example is terrorism, we should continue to respect intolerance, growing nationalist trends, the difficulties with reforming the UN human rights and international law. bitter rivalry over spheres of influence, Security Council. That body needs to Leo Tolstoy, one of the greatest figures and determined efforts to secure new be brought up to date, to better reflect in world literature, showed in his classic sources of minerals and energy. the new global balance of power, as “War and Peace” how strategic rivalry All of this is taking place against the well as to ensure a greater legitimacy between the great powers affects the backdrop of the international security and effectiveness of its own decisions. lives of ordinary people, families, and system becoming dysfunctional to an Brazil stands ready to participate in entire societies in a most dramatic way. unprecedented degree. That system no global governance, and to contribute Faced with the changes taking place in longer possesses the necessary balance to maintaining peace and collective the global arena in the early 19th century, and flexibility that could prevent or at security based on the key principles Tolstoy pondered on the nature of war, least stop international crises. of international relations reflected in political authority, and History — not Every day we observe, with a vast sense our own Constitution. Those principles from the vantage point of statesmen, but of disappointment, rational approach include the right to self-determination, simply describing the Russian people’s and dialogue being sidelined in favour human rights, noninterference, equality readiness for sacrifice, their patriotism, of the use of force. Let me therefore of all states, upholding peace, peaceful and their greatness. The book was truly outline Brazil’s own vision of global resolution of all differences, condemn- a monument to peace. security in this environment. ing terrorism and racism, cooperation It has been two centuries since the We are a nation that loves peace — but to facilitate development and growth, events that inspired Leo Tolstoy’s in no way are we a passive or defence- and integration in Latin America. work. Today, the global configuration less nation. In our own geographical The latest editions of the National of power takes on new features of surrounding, we have built an area Defence Policy and of the National multipolarity, in a far more complex of stability that has no precedents in Defence Strategy now being debated in and unstable environment. This envi- any other part of the globe. We share the National Congress also include other ronment is characterised by a growing a border with 10 other countries, and principles, such as multilateralism and military potential of mass destruction, we have been maintaining relations with respect for international law, respect including the nuclear capability; pow- them based on integration, cooperation, for sovereign rights to the rational use erful transnational actors that pursue and peace for over 150 years. At the of natural resources, participation in

/30 /31 2017 /Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

peacekeeping operations, and building crises and to make sure that the region Wars in the 21st century are a com- but also a country that makes peace action without a special UN Security Brazil’s approach to defence. No military confidence to prevent conflicts. serves peaceful purposes of cooper- bination of various types of conflicts: and keeps peace. Apart from the mech- Council mandate. As we have all seen, arsenal, no matter how powerful, can Taken together, these principles ation, especially taking into account regular and irregular, conventional and anisms of consolidation of strategic in recent years, in what has always been provide greater security than a climate clearly demonstrate the necessary its natural riches and its importance asymmetric, high-tech and improvised, partnership in our region I have already the least stable part of our world, and of political and economic cooperation. and close interrelationship between for international trade. Some 96% involving the use of decentralised tac- mentioned, I would like to mention as a result of violations of international No intelligence service, no matter how defence, diplomacy, and growth. To of Brazil’s foreign trade depends on tics and planning, innovative methods, Brazil’s major contribution to UN peace- law, there has arisen a strategic imbal- well-trained its analysts and how maintain peace and security, we need shipping in the South Atlantic. That propaganda and information warfare, as keeping operations. Our servicemen are ance, with government institutions sophisticated its algorithms or cyber- coordinated efforts in all three of these maritime region has known piracy, well as cyber-attacks. Boundaries are deployed in that role in such far-flung crumbling, tensions flaring, political instruments, can deliver more than a areas, especially in terms of closing hijacking of ships, illegal fishing, and therefore becoming blurred between parts of the world as Haiti, Lebanon, fragmentation gaining momentum, and climate of mutual and sincere confidence. the social inequality gap between the other illegal activity. political warfare, the economics, Ivory Coast, Liberia, the Central African terrorist cells spreading far and wide. As Peace will be viable and sustainable various nations. Another important priority is security geography, combatants and non- Republic, South Sudan, Western Sahara, for the principle of the rule of law, it is only when there is justice, respect for The Brazilian Defence Policy and and defence coordination between combatants, high-tech, and traditional the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the United Nations that should be the international law, and development on Strategy clearly stipulate that our key Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South technologies. Conflicts now involve and Cyprus. They are highly professional, guarantor of global stability. the local, regional, and global scale. national interest lies in consolidating our Africa in the BRICS framework. the use of smart weapons, satellites, well-trained, and empathic towards the To conclude, let me emphasise the impor- strategic geographic surroundings, and Let me also say a few words on the drones and robots, improvised explosive local population. tance of cooperation and confidence building relations of peace, cooperation, nuclear weapons problem. The Treaty devices, small arms, and various groups Brazil does not support any coercive as the fundamental characteristics of and development in South and Central of Tlatelolco for the Prohibition of without specific methods or ideology. A America and the Caribbean, in the South Nuclear Weapons in Latin America combination of the element of surprise, Atlantic, and in Africa. In that space, and the Caribbean will be 50 years the destructive potential, and the media Brazil has already built a broad network old this year. Incidentally, the Nuclear impact challenges the military might of of bilateral and multilateral mechanisms Non-Proliferation Treaty will also mark states and necessitates higher spending such as MERCOSUR, UNASUR, and the its 50th anniversary in 2018. Being on monitoring and intelligence, as Amazon Cooperation Treaty. committed to the basic principle of well as increasing the cost of military We are working to make sure South peaceful use of nuclear energy, Brazil operations in general. America and the South Atlantic remain is a strong advocate of a world free from Brazil is engaged in a struggle for peace zones free from nuclear weapons, inter- nuclear weapons. Witness, for example, and balance in our whole world — but it national conflicts, and foreign military the creation in 1991 of the Brazilian- also works to be always ready to defend bases. The peace process in Colombia is Argentine Agency for Accounting and its sovereignty, its heritage, and its bringing to an end the period of internal Control of Nuclear Materials, which is an interests in the event of the hypothet- conflicts on our continent. All we now innovative mechanism for building con- ical scenario of anarchy in international have to do is strengthen our defences fidence and applying safeguards. That relations described by Thomas Hobbes. against transnational crime along our mechanism has helped both countries To protect ourselves from possible 17,000 km of land border and 8,000 km to expand their opportunities in terms threats to our natural resources and of maritime border, in close cooperation of peaceful use of nuclear energy. territory, and from a deterioration in with our neighbours. The latest initiative in this area is the our legal, institutional, or political With the help of the Union of South proposal by the UN Conference to standing in the international system, American Nations and its Council launch negotiations on the nuclear Brazil pursues a defence strategy that of South American Defence, we are weapons ban treaty. That proposal combines aspects of deterrence and working to create a South American resulted from the three previous con- cooperation. identity in the area of defence, and ferences on the humanitarian conse- The deterrence aspect includes contin- gradually to build a regional deterrence quences of the use of nuclear weapons, ued major investment in our defence capability against any extra-regional held in 2012–2014. The international industry, which accounts for over 3% of threats. Brazil is a very active partici- community has already introduced a Brazilian GDP and enables us to develop pant in various pan-American defence ban on chemical and biological weap- national dual-use technologies. We pur- mechanisms. ons. There is no reason why a similar sue such high-tech projects as a nuclear I would like to emphasise the impor- ban should not be imposed on the only programme and nuclear-powered tance of the South Atlantic Peace and type of weapons that can destroy all submarines in our Navy; a system of Cooperation Zone, which is especially life on Earth. Adopting such measures monitoring our land borders in the Army; relevant for our country, with its almost would be a bold step, a step that is and the development and manufacture 8,000 km of coastline and 4.5 million necessary to close a dangerous gap in of modern aircraft, such as the KC-390 sq. km of territorial waters. This zone international law and to build a safer transport and the Gripen NG fighter in is a Brazilian initiative, approved by the world. For Brazil, nuclear disarmament the Air Force. UN General Assembly in 1986. Its goal is not just a strategic choice but a Speaking of cooperation, we are proud is to protect the South Atlantic from moral imperative. that we are not just a peaceful country,

/32 /33 2017 /Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

HAMID KARZAI our desire can only come true when regional mechanism with international is important to flag the value of Russia’s Ex-President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan the establishment in our neighbourly partnership that would once again political and economic relations with country stops the use of extremist advance a cooperative and inclusive our country by its engagement with violence as a tool of policy. security paradigm in Afghanistan. Taliban in support of an Afghan-owned Other than the United States, the Our loftiest traditional forum in and Afghan-led peace process and principal powers that count in global Afghanistan is the Loy Jirga, the grand through its whole some support and dynamics are clustered in the SCO and assembly that embraces all sections of investment in Afghanistan in support the SAARC. A joint session of these our people. The convening of this mighty of our economy and the strengthening forums has the potential to bring us assembly of the people of Afghanistan of state institutions. This is on account much-needed relief, including in the can brook no delay. When the people of the direct threat posed by terrorists and cooperation among major stakehold- To win peace for Afghanistan and form of meaningful peace talks with have spoken, the path to finding peace, to regional security as well as Russia’s ers, our peoples will suffer grievously. But stability for the region, I propose the the Taliban. Here I once again call and bringing together the coalition to close historic and neighbourhood ties if we put our heads together, we shall be following. on the Taliban to end the bloodshed achieve this, will shine in the darkness. with Afghanistan. able to navigate the uncertainties and An addition to US troop numbers is in the country and to join the desire It is this peace that will be the guarantor fears that haunt us. not the way forward. It will only add and the effort of the Afghan people to the securing of our fullest sovereignty. I come to the ancient city of Moscow with The Afghanistan-Pakistan area offers us to the woes of the Afghan people. More for peace. What we must aim for is a For peace and stability in Afghanistan it the fervent wish that we overcome the a useful illustration. This region — my American troops means more attacks on insecurity that grips our world. I say this region — remains in the grip of violent Afghan villages in the name of fighting with a sense of immediacy that comes extremists. Matters have grown worse terrorism, while the sanctuaries of from the experience of being from a land in recent years. This is fundamentally extremism and radicalism are left undis- which is under multifaceted attack. because cooperation among the turbed. This has been the story for years. Just a few days ago, the United States principal powers that constitute the Instead the United States should dispel dropped the world’s most powerful multipolar world has disappeared in the prevalent doubts and pessimism and bomb short of a nuclear weapon on this theatre. work with the Afghan people towards a my country. This was the first time the Let me recall that when the United new compact which will ensure peace so-called MOAB, also known as the States had clarity of purpose about and stability for Afghanistan. Such a “mother of all bombs”, was ever used. combating violent radical extremism, compact may also help in restoring the The damage to people, to the soil and to Russia, China, India, and Iran cooperated vitally important cooperation that once the environment is perhaps unknowable. with it on Afghanistan, although these existed between the United States and The American military authorities have actors were not on the same page major powers in the region. barred access to the area. everywhere. Russia even supplied In order to rectify the failings of the past The official US explanation is that Daesh weapons and helicopters to Afghanistan and reverse the threat that terrorism was targeted. But the emergence of purchased through US funds. It also poses to our common security, the Daesh in Afghanistan is traceable to became a vital supply route for the world’s principal powers need to come 2015, when the US military presence US military in Afghanistan when there together and build a new international was already firmly established in the were difficulties with the Pakistan route. consensus in the campaign against name of fighting war on terrorism. The aim of defeating violent radical terrorism. No country should seek This war has been fought at immense extremism was shared by all. only its own absolute well-being and cost to Afghan lives and property, but However, with the prolongation of the war, security at the expense of others. It will those prosecuting it could not check the radical extremism grew stronger and has not do for any power to use extremism assertive revival of the Taliban or the expanded its influence. A new malignant to advance its geostrategic goals. mushrooming growth of Daesh. force, the Daesh, has also made its entry I also call upon the major countries And within a few days of that the Afghan in the region, threatening Afghanistan, which constitute our multipolar world military base in Mazar-i-Sharif was China, Russia, Iran, and India. Today, to convene to find ways to cooperate in attacked by the Taliban. Young Afghan the consequences are before us, sadly, fixing the rising insecurity that engulfs soldiers were massacred. This foreign cooperation has given way to competition us, and show us a vision of the politics imposed war is taking massive human and suspicion of the US template has of peace and the rejection of war. In toll on Afghanistan and adding to our replaced the earlier collaboration that our region countries like Russia, China, already immense sufferings. was seen on the ground. India, Iran, and hopefully also Pakistan Permit me to record that insecurity Should we go into the reasons? I do not need to develop ideas to deal with the has grown in the world, not lessened, wish to. I will just stick to the facts. The extremism and terrorism that keep in recent years. This is a grim reminder situation as it stands is taking an enormous hurting our people. that we must work together as agents toll on my country, where the prospect Afghanistan has great desire to of peace. I warn that without equilibrium of stability is being pushed back further. improve relations with Pakistan. But

/34 /35 2017 /Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

ABDELLATIF LOUDIYI hospital. Thus, more than one million The terrorism that is rampant all around on the structural causes of threats to Minister Delegate to the Head of Government of the Kingdom medical services have been provided the world constantly reminds us of our intervene proactively in crises through of Morocco in charge of the National Defence Administration since 2012, particularly for Syrian duty and responsibility to strengthen comprehensive strategies, based women and children. our ranks to fight and eradicate the on cooperation and increased flows Finally, I should stress the need to plague of terrorism, all together, and of development assistance, to help settle the problem of Palestine with to resist the rising security threats reduce vulnerabilities, which are the full respect for its sovereignty and its resulting from the multiplication of root causes of hatred and violence, and borders and within the framework of the hotbeds of tension. to initiate a virtuous cycle that opens the United Nations resolutions adopted We still believe that stronger inter- up social and economic opportunities in this regard. national cooperation is the key to for the poor. efforts to combat terrorism, illegal advocating the coexistence of religions As you know, the issues of peace and opening up the prospects for a more Before concluding, I would like to migration, organised crime, and illicit and the struggle against fanaticism, security are transnational by nature. stable world. repeat my thanks to His Excellency cross-border trafficking of all kinds. radicalisation, and extremism. The resolution of today’s most crucial We also remain convinced that there Mr Sergey Shoygu, Minister of Defence To confront these threats, and under These actions are supported by a signi- security problems goes beyond our can be no security and peace without of the Russian Federation, for the invi- the leadership of His Majesty King ficant budgetary input, combined with borders and requires all of us to be socio-economic development or tation and the excellent arrangements I would like to express my sincere Mohammed VI, the Kingdom of Morocco the efforts of our defence and security preventively vigilant and act collec- sustainable development without made to organise this event. appreciation for the invitation you have has adopted a comprehensive and forces, to strengthen the control of our tively and concertedly. peace and security. We must focus kindly made to the Kingdom of Morocco multidimensional approach that is land, air, and sea borders and to meet to participate in the VI Moscow not limited to the security dimension our obligations to ensure the stability Conference on International Security. alone, but is based on several addi- of our country, with a positive impact It provides a platform for dialogue and tional levers, of which I shall mention, on our Mediterranean and Sahelo- exchange on the security issues facing especially: Saharan neighbourhoods. the world. On another level, aware of the Before beginning my speech, I would -- the fight against precariousness and consequences and the extent of like to commend the excellent relations exclusion, and the promotion of sus- the migration crisis, the Kingdom of between the Russian Federation and tainable socio-economic development; Morocco has adopted, since 2013, a the Kingdom of Morocco, which have comprehensive and innovative migra- witnessed a strong impulse and -- the deployment of a coherent frame- tion policy emphasising primarily the evolution at all levels after the official work for security, legal and opera- preservation of and respect for human visit of His Majesty King Mohammed tional actions; rights, the dignity of all migrants, and VI to Russia in March 2016 and his their economic and social integration. summit meeting with His Excellency -- the restructuring of the religious In this regard, an operational action Mr Vladimir Putin, President of the sphere to promote the values of tol- plan has been set up to deal with the Russian Federation. The meeting erance and openness. situation of refugees and irregular brought about the commitment of immigrants, particularly of African the two countries to establishing a In addition, as an actor in the projection and Syrian origin. In its first phase, strategic partnership aimed, in par- of stability in the region and in the the plan has helped regularise the ticular, at contributing to regional and depth of the African continent, the status of some 25,000 people. Since international peace and stability, at Kingdom of Morocco works within the December 2016, the second phase has preserving the territorial integrity of framework of South-South cooperation been launched and is expected it will the two countries, at development of promoting socio-economic develop- reach around 19,000 migrants. bilateral dialogue, and at cooperation ment, trade relations, and investment On another issue, Morocco has con- in many fields. Among the agreements flows, as well as wealth and job cre- tributed, along with the UN represent- reached during this visit, I would note ation for young people in many African ative, to the conclusion of the Skhirat the Moroccan-Russian Declaration on countries, thus contributing, by its agreement, which acts as a roadmap Combating International Terrorism, pragmatic approach, to the eradication for an agreed political solution for the which underlines the two countries’ of the hotbeds of terrorism and illegal restoration of peace and stability in commitment to strengthening their immigration. brotherly Libya. cooperation in areas related to com- In view of its close cultural and spiritual On the humanitarian level, the Kingdom batting this scourge. ties with the countries of the Sahelo- of Morocco has been contributing for In a disturbed international landscape Saharan region, Morocco has also more than four years by providing marked by multiple threats, the developed training programmes for medical services to Syrians in Zaatari Kingdom of Morocco remains strongly imams from several countries to spread camp on the Jordanian-Syrian border committed to making the necessary Islamic values of openness and tolerance, through a multidisciplinary field

/36 /37 2017 /Global Security: challenges of the XXI century

EZZAT SAAD necessitates the creation of an the situation would have been much region’s security and stability, should Executive Director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs effective regional collective security better if this step was taken as part of get involved beyond military interven- system on the one hand, and on the a comprehensive programme to prevent tion. Instead, a more comprehensive other the adoption of an initiative to the proliferation of all weapons of mass multidimensional approach, that takes declare this region free of weapons of destruction altogether. into consideration the long-term chal- mass destruction, which could save the Dealing with the region’s numerous lenges, is needed. whole region. In this context, the Iranian problems is the responsibility of its nuclear deal may prove to be a firm step countries in the first place. However, the on the path of non-proliferation, but major powers, having interests in the

In addition to the underlying factors that between Sunnis and Shiites, as well as can constitute a domestic environment between Arabs and Kurds. conducive to terrorism and extremism Besides Israel, there is also Iran and (such as the lack of socio-economic Turkey; the policies of these three coun- opportunities, poor governance, lack of tries reflect clear imbalances against the There is no specific international social justice, lack of transparency and interests of the Arab countries, which definition of terrorism, and therefore accountability, widespread corruption, has helped create an environment of the definition largely depends on the etc.), regional conflicts are a major insecurity in the region. interests and vision of each state. source for the escalation of terrorism Thus, the dependence of Arabs on Even with regards to the concept of and extremism. This is especially true importing security from abroad has terrorism itself, which the world has of the Middle East in the broad geo- greatly weakened their role and political been suffering from for decades, there graphical sense. influence in the region. We have seen are only limited areas of agreement In this regard, we have a long list of con- how Turkey and Iran have become regarding this concept: flicts and wars that have provided fertile guarantors of the ceasefire in Syria in ground for the growing phenomenon of the Astana process. -- The use of violence, without dis- terrorism and extremism in the region. There is no doubt that dealing with ter- tinction between civilians and other The Arab-Israeli conflict remains one of rorist organisations is a major challenge. targets, to achieve certain objectives, the most important causes of terrorism, The state’s failures to meet popular regardless of their nature. not only in the region but also around the demands for security, education, and world. It is important to emphasise that employment will continue to provide -- The use of violence as a means the main declared goal of Al-Qaeda in its fertile ground for violent radicalisation. of psychological warfare, i.e. as a war with the United States is precisely Support for illiberal religious and means to use violence to spread fear the Palestinian issue and the unlimited sectarian elements could expand in and therefore terror. The spread of American support for Israel. It is also popularity, reducing historic tolerance terrorism has become an ideology important to emphasise that there are for minority groups and preparing the that is able to permeate the minds many other terrorist organisations in ground for a violent push to create a of people across the world through the region that still use the liberation more homogenous region. Thus, the cen- social media, which is labelled as “the of Palestine from Israeli occupation as tral challenge for the region is to boost concept of globalised terrorism”. a slogan and overarching theme. growth and create a political conditions The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, and economic opportunity to engage its -- Belief in the resolution of disputes which contributed to the further division young working-age residents. through violence and the use of of the Arabs, helped Iran’s rise as a The use of advanced technology by destructive weapons as instruments, regional power and led to an increase in terrorist organisations has become an rather than engaging in dialogue, anti-American sentiment in Saudi Arabia unprecedented challenge in the field of negotiations, or any other peaceful and other countries in region, providing counter-terrorism, and involves remote means of dispute resolution. a climate for Al-Qaeda’s rise and violent guidance, the use of cruise missiles, and religious extremism. cyber-attacks, among others. Apart from the concept and definition of The US occupation of Iraq in 2003, which Terrorism must be dealt with through a terrorism, the latter can be classified in destroyed the Iraqi military capabilities coherent and comprehensive strategic a variety of forms: domestic terrorism, that had been deemed a counterweight rather than a tactical approach, such regional terrorism, and international to Iran, left Iraq without a stable gov- tactical measures for fighting extremism terrorism. There is also the terrorism ernment and viable economy, and further will fail, as we have seen elsewhere. of organisations or non-state actors in stimulated violent extremism, sectarian The existence for decades of secur- response to state terrorism. tensions, and bloody confrontations ity imbalances in the Middle East

/38 /39 Plenary session European Security: prospects and trends

Moderator

Lieutenant-General Alexander Fomin Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation 2017 /European Security: prospects and trends

ARMY GENERAL VALERY GERASIMOV Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Armed Forces — USE OF SWEDISH AND FINNISH First Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation NATO’s destabilising activities INFRASTRUCTURE TO SUPPORT TROOP DEPLOYMENTS IN NORTHERN EUROPE

in Europe Finland

Norway Sweden EXPANSION OF THE NATO RESPONSE FORCE, Estonia REDUCED READINESS TIME

RUSSIA HAS BEEN PARTICIPATION OF AIR FORCES Latvia DECLARED THE MAIN OF “NONNUCLEAR” MEMBERS OF NATO IN EXERCISES THAT SIMULATE NUCLEAR SOURCE OF THREATS Lithuania TO THE ALLIANCE WEAPONS USE

Belarus DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL MILITARY Poland CONTINGENTS UP TO 12,000 TROOPS, Germany LOGISTICS CENTRES, AND COMMAND AND CONTROL INFRASTRUCTURE ALONG RUSSIAN BORDERS Evaluating European security today, it flank rose dramatically. There is an near the Russian Federation’s borders. DEPLOYMENT OF THE US AEGIS ASHORE is possible to draw one clear conclu- increase in rapid-response forces, and The number of NATO operational and BMD SYSTEMS IN POLAND AND ROMANIA Ukraine sion: Europe is gradually changing from foreign military groupings in Eastern combat training exercises in Eastern France Romania CREATION OF THE VERY HIGH being the most stable and peaceful Europe. Additional formations and Europe has nearly doubled over the READINESS JOINT TASK FORCE WITHIN US NUCLEAR BOMBS ItalyItalaly region to being one fraught with command and control infrastructure past two years. STORAGE IN EUROPE THE RESPONSE FORCE tensions and confrontation. are placed in the Baltic states, Poland, All of these actions by the Alliance are This is the result of several factors. Romania, and Bulgaria. NATO is increas- destructive and amount to provocation. First of all, there are the deteriorating ing its offensive capacity along all lines By implementing its plans for expan- relations between Russia and NATO, of contact with Russia. Aerodrome sion NATO is violating the balance of while work is accelerating to deploy a result, all the strategic facilities BMD systems. which are now at their lowest point and port capacity is being expanded, forces in the region and increasing the US BMD systems in Poland by 2018. situated in European Russia are within The Pentagon’s plans to modernise its since the end of the Cold War. The deci- warehouse and logistics centres risk of military incidents. The missile defence base in Romania range. tactical nuclear weapons arsenal and sions made at the NATO summits in the are being established. This enables The second factor is related to the houses universal launch systems We will undoubtedly take the steps its storage facilities in Europe also United Kingdom and Poland designated NATO to rapidly expand its strength deployment of NATO’s missile defence that can launch not only interceptor we need to in order to counter these have a negative impact on regional Russia as the main source of military by deploying the NATO Response Force system in Europe. Today it has reached missiles but also Tomahawk cruise threats. But the most important thing security. This refers to about 200 threats. Consequently, the scale of to the region. There is an uptick in initial operational readiness. It includes missiles. There are plans to deploy is that Europe does not become any bombs held in Belgium, Italy, the NATO military activity on its Eastern NATO intelligence-gathering activity Aegis Ashore BMD systems in Romania these systems in Poland as well. As safer due to the deployment of these Netherlands, Germany, and Turkey.

UPTICK IN NATO SURVEILLANCE ACTIVITY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER Current factors impacting European security NEAR RUSSIAN FEDERATION BORDERS NATO’s destabilising OF OPERATIONAL AND COMBAT TRAINING EXERCISES WITH GREATER PARTICIPATION activities in FinlandEurope Surveillance flights (number of flights) Norway Sweden Intensity of operational training of foreign Estonia militaries (number of exercises) DEPLOYMENT INCREASED THREATS 00 BUILDUP OF MILITARY UNRESOLVED 10 +21.5% OF BALLISTIC MISSILE TO SECURITY ACTIVITY BY NATO CONFLICTS DEFENCE BMD IN EUROPE IN CYBERSPACE +24% Latvia 0 00

752 80 Lithuania +52% 0 08 701 GROWING SCALE OF TERRORISM AND EXTREMISM DESTRUCTIVE ACTIONS OF THE UNITED 60 60 Belarus EMANATING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA STATES AIMED AT GLOBAL DOMINANCE 565 +21.6% Poland 522 0 0 40 40 Germany 343 0 0 282 20 20 Ukraine

Romania 0 France 0 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 Italy

/42 /43 2017 /European Security: prospects and trends

Deployment of BMD systems in Europe Unresolved conflicts and their consequences Russian Federation

VORKUTA THE UNIVERSAL MK-41 VERTICAL LAUNCHING SYSTEM Ukraine (VLS) IS USED ON BMD VESSELS TO LAUNCH NUMBER OF MIGRANTS ARRIVING IN EUROPE INTERCEPTOR MISSILES AND CRUISE MISSILES. CRUISE MISSILE (data on international migration from Eurostat, ARKHANGELSK THE SAME VLS ARE PART OF AEGIS ASHORE BMD RANGE Frontex, IOM, OECD) IN ROMANIA AND POLAND Norway PERM Sweden over people GUIDED MISSILE CRUISERS Estonia Taliban KAZAN up to people Jabhat al-Nusra 128 CELL MK-41 VLS Syria Latvia MOSCOW over people Ahrar al-Sham ISIS ISIS Iraq Afghanistan GUIDED MISSILE DESTROYERS Lithuania с начала 2017 — over 20,300 people 96 CELL MK-41 VLS INTERCEPTOR MISSILE RANGE ISIS ISIS Belarus Algeria Libya AEGIS ASHORE BMD Redzikowo, Germany (Poland) Al-Qaeda 48 CELL MK-31 VLS Ahrar al-Sham Ukraine TOMAHAWK CRUISE MISSILES Mali France RANGE – 2,500 KM ISIS Deveselu, Niger ACCURACY – 5 M Italy (Romania Al-Qaeda Yemen PAYLOAD – 300 KG Boko Haram Ansar Dine Al-Qaeda Somalia STANDARD MISSILE-3 Rota migrant flows BLOCK 2A INTERCEPTOR (Spain) Harakt al-Shabaab INTERCEPTION RANGE – 1,000 KM INTERCEPTION ALTITUDE – 500 KM the spread of terrorism

Pilots from NATO countries that do type of attack is virtually impossible feature — dialogue between militaries. security architecture, one can conclude joint efforts and the participation of all website posts dozens of news updates not have nuclear weapons participate to identify. It therefore is possible to Today virtually all contacts along that it no longer corresponds to the European states. about diverse areas of Army and Navy in exercises that simulate nuclear launch accusations and use military expert military lines have been wound fast-changing nature of international In today’s environment Russia is activity. We are as open as we can be weapons use. This is a direct violation means without any proof of the tar- down. All this contributes to the further relations. Hostility, pressure, sanctions: not willing to curtail cooperation on about the operational and combat of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation get’s guilt. This could lead to chaos in deterioration of Russia–NATO relations. these are not the right instruments security issues. We will continue to training exercises for forces and staff. of Nuclear Weapons. international relations. Countries in the West are increasing to use to strengthen it. A new and transform the Russian Armed Forces We release information about snap The third destabilising factor is The necessary conditions that would their intense information war against mutually beneficial European security with unprecedented openness. Every checks of forces and major exercises. unresolved conflicts. The continuing make it possible to overcome the Russia. If you watch the news on EU system can be built together, through day the Russian Ministry of Defence We regularly hold briefings on their military confrontation in south-east impact of these destructive factors and US media, you get the impression Ukraine has a particularly negative are currently absent. that almost all the negative events influence on the situation in Europe. Europe’s main security problem today that take place across the globe are It can only be resolved politically. is that the level of trust between down to either Russia’s secret services Cyber threats as a pretext for initiating military action European countries, however, provide the West and Russia is critically or its hackers. This disinformation cam- military support to the Kiev regime, low. Issues related to the security of paign has very clear aims: to blacken thus prolonging the conflict. the European Union have long been Russia’s name as much as possible The third factor is closely related to the discussed separately from Russian and belittle its role in the fight against SPACE AIR fourth, which is the growing threat of security, even though we are on the international terrorism and in solving DOMAINS OF WARFARE terrorism and radicalism in Europe. It is same continent and for a long time other international problems. LAND SEA fuelled by the increase in migration flow there have not been any ideological The very fact that today, in cultured into Europe from unstable countries in barriers between us, and even though and tolerant Europe, monuments to the Middle East and North Africa region. we face growing common threats and Soviet soldiers who died in the fight The final factor is related to the challenges. Despite this, the confron- against fascism are defaced is itself a CYBER MOSCOW emergence of new security threats tational rhetoric regarding the Russian direct consequence of the information in cyberspace. NATO has started to Federation is only gaining momentum. policy enacted regarding Russia. develop a process by which Article 5 The EU and NATO regularly accuse The old propaganda concept of “the of the Washington Treaty (collective Russia of exacerbating tensions. Russian threat” is being actively defence) could be invoked over a A forum where it could be possible applied in order to justify the policy TRIGGERING OF MECHANISMS OUTLINED cyber-attack on technical systems to meet and, at least, clarify each of containing Russia and to support IN ARTICLE OF THE WASHINGTON AGREEMENT IN RESPONSE TO CYBER CYBER ATTACKS that underpin NATO countries’ public other’s positions, intentions, and fears, the demand for NATO in public con- AND HYBRID THREATS administration and military command. does indeed exist, the Russia–NATO sciousness across the European Union. Today, however, the real source of this Council, but it lacks the most important Evaluating the state of Europe’s

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Russia — NATO relations Current state of the European security system

EU AND NATO APPROACHES RUSSIAS APPROACHES TO RELATIONS WITH THE RUSSIA TO ENGAGEMENT WITH NATO CONVINCING EU POPULATIONS OF THE RUSSIAN THREAT NATO EXERCISES IN GERMANY INVOLVING RUSSIAN-SPEAKING Russia has been declared the main source of threats Readiness to discuss issues of concern EXTRAS (WANTED: RUSSIANS in European security HOSTILITY, PRESSURE, SANCTIONS FOR MILITARY EXERCISES)

Building relations with Russia from a position of strength Dialogue on strategic stability issues including COLD-WAR MINDSET expansion of BMD

IGNORING NORMS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW Reduced confidence, increased tensions in relations Transparency of armed forces’ activities with the Russian Federation THE WEST STRIVING TO ESTABLISH A WORLD ORDER Ensuring security of flights over the Baltic BASED ON ITS OWN MODEL WITHOUT TAKING OTHER and Black Seas STATES OPINIONS INTO ACCOUNT Engagement with Russia only on those aspects that interest NATO Joint measures to prevent military incidents INSTILLING IDEOLOGIES AND WESTERN VALUES ACROSS THE WORLD, IRRESPECTIVE OF NATIONAL PARTICULARITIES AND PEOPLES’ Sustained demands to return annexed Crimea to Ukraine DESIRE TO ADOPT THEM Joint fight against terrorism

results. All major military training track, and will invite representatives place on an equitable, trusting, and common challenges and threats. The and European soil. Kingdom, Sweden, and Russia), and exercises are covered extensively in of NATO countries’ militaries and constructive basis. Russian initiative went unanswered. The lack of close cooperation between which ISIS is responsible for. However, Russian and international media. The NATO military command to take part The Russia–NATO Council meeting last The West also ignores our offers to join our countries in the fight against ter- no steps are being taken to bring our frequency of updates on the activities in events organised by the Russian year saw the Russian side propose forces in the fight against international rorism creates conditions for ISIS to positions closer together. The leader- of the Russian Armed Forces has sig- Ministry of Defence. a number of concrete measures to terrorism. Since 2015 Russia has been flourish. Proof of this can be seen in ship of the EU and NATO continue to nificantly increased since the Russian We are open to full-scale dialogue rebuild relations with NATO along fighting radical Islamist groupings in the major terror attacks which have pursue a unilateral policy that casts Aerospace Forces started operating in and interaction with NATO. It is most the military track, and also to define Syria, containing terrorism abroad, and claimed numerous lives in Europe (in Russia as responsible for all the Syria. We intend to continue along this important that this process takes opportunities for joint response to preventing its advance onto Russian France, Germany, Belgium, the United negative events in the world.

Information war against Russia Transparency of Russian military activities

MAIN ELEMENTS REGULAR COVERAGE OF MEETINGS OF BRIEFINGS HELD ON: THE RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY BOARD OF ANTI-RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA - snap checks for the Russian Armed Forces; - the situation in Syria; Russian Federation - strategic command-and-staff exercises; Creating the image in the West - combat training activities of Russia as aggressive and conniving DISINFORMATION LEAKS TV DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING FILMS INVITATIONS TO ATTEND EVENTS Stoking inter-ethnic DISTORTING FACTS, CONCEPTS RELATIONS WITH THE MEDIA AND THE HELD BY THE RUSSIAN and inter-faith tensions RADIO GENERAL PUBLIC DEFENCE MINISTRY: NEWS SITES Demonising the Russian Federations leadership FAKE FOOTAGE SOCIAL NETWORKS - Moscow Conference on International Security PRINT MEDIA Promoting Russophobic ideas MEETINGS OF THE RUSSIAN DEFENCE - International Army Games WEBSITES MINISTRY LEADERSHIP WITH EXPERTS AND MILITARY ATTACHS - Military Technical Forum Seeking to erode and destroy Russian ADS national traditions and imposing western values

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remain unsolved. As a result, European own conditions on the development of all peoples of Europe. But being real-

April security will only deteriorate. relations with Russia. istic, we will take concrete practical Fight against international terrorism 14 dead, 41 injured Russian Federation The second scenario is optimistic. I am confident that this scenario would measures to respond to new threats The West and Russia will understand enable the strengthening of security and challenges, not only to our own Finland each other’s interests and concerns. and stability in Europe. This confidence security — but also to that of Europe. Saint-Petersburg April Norway A dialogue will form between them, is rooted in the fact that we have long 4 dead, 15 injured Stockholm Estonia trust will build, and open and pragmatic faced the need for decisive measures Four-Party Information Centre MAIN RESULTS OF THE OPERATION Sweden Latvia relations will develop. European poli- to stabilise the situation, ensure March Denmark IN THE SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC 2 dead,to Counter over 12 injured Terrorism in the Middle Lithuania ticians will stop trying to impose their equitable and indivisible security for

East (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Russia) Berlin Belarus March Population centres liberated — London Netherlands Poland 34 dead, over 210 injured United Kingdom Belgium GermanyCeasefire agreements signed — Brussels Czrch Republic Ukraine Slovakia April AustriaFighters laid down arms — 2 dead, 1 injured Paris Switzerland Hungary Tons of humanitarianRomania aid delivered — France July Interaction, intelligence exchange, Italy Bulgaria 84 dead, over 200 injured Nice People given medical treatment — military contacts online Spain Portugal schools/hospitalsGreece restored — December Turkey 12 dead, over 50 injured UN humanitarian convoys —

April Alexandria 48 dead, over 100 injured Tanta Egypt

A particularly clear example of this prospects for European security, a alliance will continue to expand, and situation can be seen in the US missile realistic assessment of the environ- will continue its large-scale military strike on the Syrian government forces’ ment today leads us to two scenarios activity on its Eastern flank. Russia will airbase, which was enthusiastically for its further development. be forced to respond adequately to the supported by almost all European First, the pessimistic scenario. The situation and take required deterrence countries despite the lack of any significant differences — particularly measures. Common threats and chal- evidence that Bashar al-Assad had between Russia and NATO — that exist lenges that the West and Russia face, used chemical weapons. As for the today will continue to deepen. The and which require a joint solution, will

Prospects for European Security

Финляндия PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO Норвегия OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO

Швеция Эстония DEEPENING TENSIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO ESTABLISHMENT OF CONFIDENT AND CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOGUEЛатвия Литва INCREASED MILITARY CAPABILITIES AND EXPANSION OF THE ALLIANCE EUAL AND MUTUALLYБеларусь BENEFICIAL COOPERATION Германия

Украина LARGE-SCALE MILITARY ACTIVITY ON THE BLOC’S DEVELOPMENT OF OPEN AND PRAGMATIC RELATIONS EASTERN FLANK Франция Италия WORSENING SITUATION IN EUROPE STRENGTHENING SECURITY AND STABILITY IN EUROPE

Рота (Испания)

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LIEUTENANT-GENERAL ANDREY RAVKOV Minister of Defence of the Republic of Belarus Growing militarisation of the European continent

The Supreme Allied Commander Europe is INCREASED INTENSITY OF NATO ALLIED FORCES EXERCISES AND TRAINING responsible for the overall command, control, and conduct of NATO military operations. He conducts the necessary military planning of operations. Total number to the peaceful resolution of all disa- militarisation of Europe. The question He has the right to order the use of the rapid greements by means of diplomacy. Our of why NATO did not cease to exist at reaction force. 296 312 (Following the Warsaw Summit) country does not threaten anyone; the same time the Warsaw Pact did 247 nor does it make any demands upon is rhetorical. Instead of dissolution or On the territory of states neighbouring anyone. In our opinion, the use of transformation into a political body, the Republic of Belarus On behalf of the Republic of Belarus, military force is a measure of last the alliance has been looking far and

let me extend my regards to all resort, and we must do our utmost wide for a new enemy. 76 80 CURTIS SCAPARROTTI the participants in the VI Moscow never to have to resort to it. It has now found that “enemy”. In the 41 Supreme Allied Commander Europe Conference on International Security. The Republic of Belarus lies at the West, everyone and his dog is now

As almost all international military centre of the European continent; talking about the “Eastern threat”. 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 cooperation contacts between the it straddles the geopolitical divide NATO’s eastward expansion is now a world’s leading geopolitical powers between the East and West. Our fact we have to live with. Our country’s have been frozen amid the ongoing state cannot distance itself from the northern and western neighbours are confrontation between them, the processes unfolding in Europe. But members of that military bloc. Our multiplying the level of military threat in the east. Conditions are being cre- worse, the numbers of these weapons role of this venue for discussion in everything that is happening on that southern neighbour, Ukraine, is also in Eastern Europe. ated for a build-up of third countries’ are not regulated by any treaties. increasing openness and international continent right now can be described pressing ahead with its own integra- We have a similar view of the deci- strike forces in the territory of our NATO’s bombastic statements of confidence is as high as ever. We are in one word: uncertainty. That is why tion into NATO. sions taken by the NATO leadership in neighbours. The amount of heavy support for its Baltic and Polish allies grateful to the organisers for this we would like to share our concerns These are the geopolitical realities the framework of operations Atlantic weaponry stockpiled in the Baltic also conceal another important event. opportunity once again to outline about the direction these processes that we face; division lines are not Resolve and Enhanced Forward states and in Poland for arming US The Warsaw summit has approved our fundamental position. right across the border are now taking. being erased, they are merely moving Presence. Their implementation brigade tactical groups is enough to changes in the mechanism of NATO Its essence lies in our commitment Our first concern is the growing closer to our own borders, thereby includes building up the NATO forces deploy an entire army corps. What is decision-making: instead of decisions

Growing militarisation of the European continent Upward trend in military budgets

2017 COSTS OF OPERATION ATLANTIC RESOLVE (US $ BILLION) COUNTRY DEFENCE EXPENDITURE TOTAL DEFENCE APPROPRIATIONS IN US BILLION OF NATO MEMBER STATES (€ BILLION) (AS A SHARE OF GDP) . By May 2017, the . total number of United Kingdom 69.2 (2.4 %) . NATO troops in . Eastern Europe may amount to Germany 37.7 (1.37 %) increased stocks of armaments and military equipment 11,000 servicemen support for the presence of the US Army’s and 570 pieces of France 34.8 (1.75 %) Armored Brigade Combat Team military equipment. improvement of infrastructure that enables Turkey 20.8 (2.1 %) the deployment of US troops . Poland 9.6 (2 %) exercises and training held at greater intensity and scope By 2018, Latvia and Lithuania 0.631 (1.48 %) Lithuania plan for their military capacity building in NATO member defence budgets to reach states and partner countries Latvia 0.4 (1.41 %) the target of 2% of GDP

Estonia 0.49 (2.07 %)

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Poland as a contender for the role of the regional centre of power in Europe Centrifugal tendencies in the European Union

RESULTS FIVE SCENARIOS OF THE REFERENDUM OF EU DEVELOPMENT ON THE UNITED POLAND SEEKS THE STATUS OF REGIONAL LEADER IN CENTRAL KINGDOMS AND EASTERN EUROPE: MEMBERSHIP it advocates the revision of relations within the EU; OF THE EU it is a member of the Visegrád Group (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary) and the Weimar Triangle (Germany, Poland, and France), furthermore it presents itself as the leading state of Eastern Europe; “Continuation of previous policies” — the 27 remaining members of the EU, as before, will focus on reforms it initiates the process of creating a new geopolitical entity, the so-called The EU’s primary efforts will be aimed at developing Intermarium Union. This union should include states of the Baltic 4 2 Remain a member of the EU Leave the EU the common internal market and political integration and Black Sea regions, as well as the Visegrád Group; processes will be put on hold

it serves as the crucial advance base of the United States in Eastern Europe; “Multi-speed Europe” — “those who want more do more”. The EU it seeks to strengthen ties with states of Central and Eastern Europe could become an even less transparent and more complex structure and further guard them from “possible Russian aggression”. The EU will focus its efforts on several areas guided by 2321 the “fewer but more efficient” principle EU states “will share authority, resources, and responsibilities PRIME MINISTER THERESA MAY SIGNED A LETTER NOTIFYING for decision-making” THE EU AUTHORITIES THAT SHE HAD TRIGGERED THE PROCESS WHEREBY THE UNITED KINGDOM WOULD EXIT THE EU

being taken after careful considera- event of a military conflict. That new the scenarios and reflected in the joint exercise is not sabre-rattling, and the mutual accusations of insuffi- on security and confidence-building tion by all members of the alliance, strategy leaves precious little time numerical strength of the exercises but merely another one in a series of cient notice being given to neighbours, measures. that role has now been usurped by a for attempting a peaceful settlement and manoeuvres of the joint NATO drills whose main goal is to ascertain or of the lack of transparency of such The second major problem I would single military official. of international differences. The forces. the ability of our armed forces to events, merely point to the need for like to highlight is growing military One does not have to be an experi- cardinal rule now is, “whoever acts Faced with these facts, Belarus has to serve their defensive purpose in this urgent measures to reduce tensions spending. enced military theoretician to realise first, wins”. respond. In this, we absolutely agree new environment. and resolve our differences. The only Much more money is being spent that such a change radically alters the We are now witnessing exactly such with our strategic ally the Russian But on the whole, the large-scale way out is to resume dialogue and these days on defence than on conflict strategy of military deployment in the an approach being implemented in Federation. The upcoming Zapad 2017 exercises being held by all the parties, rebuild an effective system of treaties prevention or humanitarian aid.

Centrifugal tendencies in the European Union Neutral states’ cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance

The rules of the game in Europe have changed so much that old concepts of neutrality as the framework for neutral states interests and policies are no longer relevant MOVEMENT TOWARDSНорвежское SELF-DETERMINATION THE CONCEPT OF A “MULTI-SPEED EUROPE” море NATOs Partnership for Peace programme was joined by: Scotland grants each EU member the freedom to participate, or not Netherlands to participate, in particular integration steps depending Finland and Sweden in 1994; United Kingdom on its own priorities and the domestic political environment; Northern Ireland Germany Austria in 1995; Belgium involves preserving an EU in which member states act Switzerland in 1996 Flanders together when possible, at different intensities and pace when necessary; Bavaria The Partnership for Peace programme provides Austria Sweden Finland and Switzerland with France A “Core Europe” will continue moving towards its “cherished an opportunity to cooperate with the North Atlantic Alliance on their own conditions without goal”, while other states that do not, for various reasons, Basque Country becoming a member of the organisation. Italy share this desire should step aside. Catalonia Neutral states partnership with NATO can be regarded as a successful hedging strategy. It does not entail any burden associated with membership of the organisation. CorsicaSpain Mediterranean Sea

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But instead of seeking an agreement regional powers in their own right. We strengthening Britain’s nuclear capa- on a reasonable limitation of military understand that for our neighbours, bility and increasing the country’s budgets, many states keep ramping choosing militarisation as a driver of defence spending. Main factors affecting regional security them up. growth is a long-term trend. That is The third major issue I would like to We have a very critical view of the why Belarus views this as a negative raise today is the problem of neutral PLANS FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF THE US BMD MILITARISATION OF CYBERSPACE attempts by the US leadership to factor that raises the level of military states being dragged into military

force all the European NATO members threat in the region. Now let me say a preparations. Deployment stages for the European segment NATO COOPERATIVE CYBER DEFENCE CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE (2008) — TALLINN, ESTONIA to spend at least 2% of their GDP few words about centrifugal tenden- The world has yet to fully understand of the US missile defence system on defence. We believe that this is cies in the European Union. how Austria’s or Switzerland’s active 2017 — deployment of launchers with SM-3 Block IIA interceptors CYBER-DEFENCE UNIT OF THE TERRITORIAL DEFENCE FORCES (2011) — TALLINN, ESTONIA 2018 — all components of the US missile defence system nothing but lobbying on behalf of the The question of whether Europe will participation in NATO projects accords in Poland are deployed CYBER-DEFENCE UNIT OF THE TERRITORIAL DEFENCE FORCES (2013) — RIGA, LATVIA 2020 — the missile defence system in Europe is fully operational North American military-industrial remain united militarily has to do with with their neutral status. Meanwhile, NATIONAL CYBER-SECURITY CENTRE (2016) — VILNIUS, LITHUANIA complex. the evolution of the pan-European NATO is also increasing its pressure Even more worryingly, the growing security and defence policy. In that on two other neutral states, Sweden CYBER-SECURITY CENTRE (2010) — BIAŁOBRZEGI, POLAND defence spending and military capa- sense, we need to ponder the concept and Finland. bility of the European allies is not of a “multi-speed” Europe recently The pretexts for dragging these COLLAPSE OF THE INTERNATIONAL TREATY SYSTEM MODERNISING EUROPES NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES NUMBER OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS being compensated for by the pullout adopted by four leading European countries into NATO vary from having NOT OBSERVED Number Country of storage Number For the air force of the country of US military bases from these coun- nations. to stand up to the alleged Russian sites of storage sites in which they are located TREATY ON THE LIMITATION OF ANTI-BALLISTIC tries. No promises are being made In our opinion, that concept radically military threat to protecting the MISSILE SYSTEMS (ABM TREATY) BELGIUM 11 -- 20 that those troops will be withdrawn! changes the system of decision-mak- assets of Swedish and Finnish banks NETHERLANDS 11 -- 20 ADAPTED TREATY ON CONVENTIONAL ARMED FORCES GERMANY 11 -- 20 IN EUROPE (CFE TREATY) ITALY 18/11 50/-- --/20 That is why our assessment of these ing in the EU. There is no guarantee in the Baltic states. TURKEY 25 50 20 processes is unambiguous: we are that this new initiative will not be To Belarus, all of this means that still TOTAL 87 100 100 witnessing an excessive and unjus- applied to military decision-making. more foreign powers might one day tified militarisation of the European There are also many remaining ques- deploy their forces in the territory continent. tions about the principles of using the of our neighbours, and that the size bridge between Europe and Russia, Investors see the risks and refuse between defence industry companies. The stance taken by the Eastern EU’s multinational forces. of those forces might increase even Ukraine has become a battlefield”. to invest in the Belarusian economy Speaking of the purely military side European states on this issue is quite As for Brexit, we believe one of the further. In essence, we now have a constant because they see it as a country of things, we have a number of major clear. goals Britain might be pursuing is Finally, the fourth major issue I source of instability right across our situated in an unstable region. Our concerns. The first and the most By ramping up their military spending to give itself a greater freedom of would like to discuss is the military border. The “frozen” military conflict companies are losing their traditional worrying of them is that the direction and building up their military might, manoeuvre militarily. This concern confrontation in Ukraine. in neighbouring Ukraine inflicts Ukrainian market; commercial part- of our neighbour Ukraine’s military some of them are demonstrating is also being fuelled by the ongoing As one well-known European politi- major damage on our own security, nerships built over decades are being policy has dramatically changed. their aspiration to become major parliamentary debate in the UK about cian once put it, “instead of being a especially in the economic sphere. broken up, including partnerships Fraternal nations are now in a state

The problem of the growing threat of global terrorism Measures aimed at enhancing regional security

SOME TRENDS IN TERRORIST ACTIVITIES:

terrorist activities carried out active use of modern information broadening social support base for terrorism primarily in urban areas and communications technology due to the continued radicalisation of the population Strengthening pan-European security, a rejection Resuming interaction within all organisations of thinking in terms of blocs and sanctions, and politico-military blocs. MAJOR TERRORIST ATTACKS COMMITTED IN EUROPE: and of attempts to strengthen one’s own security Establishing equitable dialogue between at the expense of others’ security. CSTO and NATO. 11 March 2004 7 July 2005 13 November 2015 22 March 2016 14 July 2016 19 December 2016 3 April 2017 Madrid, London, Paris, Brussels, Nice, Berlin, Saint Petersburg, Spain United Kingdom France Belgium France Germany Russia Revising the CFE Treaty to include all OSCE Broader international cooperation 192 52 32 12 13 participating states and ensuring the possibility on the development of common mechanisms 130 84 of additional subregional agreements within to counter the growing threat of global terrorism. its framework on establishing “zones of stability 2000 700 300 300 200 48 50 and security” across the OSCE region, without

Commuter train Terrorist attacks on Series of terrorist Terrorist attacks at Terrorist attack Terrorist attack on Terrorist attack any linkages to frozen conflicts. bombed before the public transport in attacks on crowded the airport and in during Bastille Day Christmas market on the metro general election the run-up to the G8 public places the metro celebrations Summit Dead Injured

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if all the leading geopolitical powers the interested parties stand united in and mutual respect. Our fundamental come to an agreement and to a shared confronting our common enemy. position remains unchanged: we call Measures aimed at enhancing regional security vision of the future. Otherwise, each To conclude, we firmly believe that for building confidence and security will play to their own set of rules, reason will eventually prevail. in a modern pragmatic system of and the confrontation will continue A selective cooperation would mean a international relations. to spiral out of control. return to the Cold War past. It would In pursuit of that goal, we are open to Fourth, we should expand our endanger our shared future. cooperation with all states without The Republic of Belarus regards its participation As an OSCE participating state, the Republic cooperation on developing shared Let me also reiterate once again our exception who respect the national in the work of the UN as a basis for improving of Belarus advocates the development mechanisms of countering the terror commitment to coordinating and interests of the Republic of Belarus mechanisms for maintenance of global security. of the regional security system with due regard threat, including the use of military promoting our shared interests on and of the Belarusian people. for the interests of all states, rooted instruments. That, in our opinion, is the international arena, based on the in the principles of trust and mutual understanding. the common ground that can help all universal principles of equal dialogue

Maintenance of good-neighbourly Further development of relations regarding and mutually beneficial relations with the EU confidence- and security-building measures as well as partnership with NATO. within the framework of bilateral agreements signed by the Republic of Belarus.

of confrontation. Second, there are All of this raises the level of military resume cooperation in the framework now huge amounts of unaccounted threat and increases the uncertainty of all the existing organisations and weaponry and ammunition, and some on the European continent. In these military-political blocs. There should of it could make its way into Belarus. circumstances, the policy of confron- be equal dialogue between the CSTO Third, we have to worry about the tation is a policy that leads us to a and NATO. Let me emphasise the potential “migrants” who only know dead end; a policy that merely shows importance of making sure that all how to make a living as soldiers of the weakness of its proponents. international actors without excep- fortune. Such people being used as Any temporary truce that would tion are engaged in that process. weapons are nothing new. We have freeze our relations in their current Second, the unjustified increases before us the example of Europe, state would not be enough, either. in defence spending must end. This where uncontrolled migration has That would be only a partial solution, will help to bolster security in Europe caused a major increase in the terror and its effectiveness would be far without ramping up the military capa- threat. from certain. We must think of the bility and presence near each other’s The reverse side of this coin is that the future! Only such an understanding of borders. Defence spending must be priority of bringing migration flows the processes that underpin modern based on the principle of reasonable back under control is being used as a international security can bring us sufficiency rather than military dom- pretext for drawing new division lines. to a successful outcome. That is inance. The same principle should be The border infrastructure of some of why please allow me to reiterate the at the core of any future arms control our neighbours has recently begun to proposals we outlined at the previous agreements in Europe. resemble a system of layered military security conference in Moscow: Third, we need to improve the defences. First, we should abandon the rhetoric military-political toolbox at the The problems I have briefly outlined of recriminations and bloc mentality. disposal of the international security are merely the tip of the iceberg. We should abandon the concept of a organisations, especially the OSCE. You are all well aware of such post-truth world, in which all kinds of Negotiations should continue on long-running issues as the American accusations can be levelled at one’s achieving a settlement of frozen con- missile defence system in Europe, opponents without a shred of evi- flicts in Europe. If the peace process the degradation of the international dence. We should return to mutually makes progress, there will be no major system of confidence-building and respectful dialogue on the basis of migration flows, which are an element security measures; the modernisation the principle of indivisible security. of hybrid warfare. People will have no of the European nuclear arsenals; and We should look for common ground reason to flee their home countries. the militarisation of cyberspace. and seek compromises. We should As for peace, it can be achieved only

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ZORAN ĐORĐEVIĆ of transnational organised crime, which The international position of Serbia has on and which side they will take. Today Minister of Defence of the Republic of Serbia also involves illegal human trafficking. significantly improved in recent years. Serbia has no doubts in the fight against As the Defence Minister, I was one of Serbia has been recognised as a respon- terrorism. Serbia has chosen the right the initiators of the development of sible, reliable and predictable partner, side and stood shoulder to shoulder with the Strategy for Combating Terrorism, which, as an EU candidate, would like its friends. which represents a valuable normative to share responsibility with European Today, more than ever, it is necessary contribution of the Republic of Serbia. partners and develop cooperation with to be united in the fight against ter- Under the draft Strategy, which is in the all international security actors in the rorism. It is the only way to overcome final phase of adoption, the Ministry of security and other spheres and thus and eradicate it forever, because, as Defence has a functional role in priority contribute to the global security. His Excellency Vladimir Putin said, cause serious consequences of global security challenge for our country. We activities involved in a system-wide Therefore, I am convinced that there is terrorism does not have either religion proportions. The recent terrorist attacks will never recognise a unilateral dec- response to a terrorist attack, involving a common interest in jointly mastering or statehood, and there is no difference demonstrate that the instigators laration of independence of so-called impact management and mitigating the the skills of strategic communication as among terrorists, because they are and perpetrators of these, the most Kosovo, and the way to the permanent consequences of a terrorist attack. the most important type of prevention interested not in reaching an agree- blatant form of political violence, are and sustainable solution is possible only Specifically, we are talking about the of terrorism, violent extremism, and ment and calming a situation, but in It is my great pleasure to greet par- not an isolated problem that can be through negotiations in accordance with Serbian Armed Forces achieving a level radicalisation. the maintenance of the constant war in ticipants of the VI Moscow Conference solved exclusively by repressive means. the international law. of operational and functional capabil- Throughout history, Serbia has always order to secure the aims of their leaders on International Security on behalf of Therefore, it is necessary to take a multi- Serbia would like to have a status- ities through participation in interna- chosen the right side, dear friends, and behind the curtain. We stand for a more Prime Minister and future President of disciplinary approach through preventive neutral dialogue between Belgrade tional exercises on crisis management be sure that in the future Serbia will secure and peaceful world! the Republic of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić. and repressive measures. Furthermore, and Pristina and to solve issues of vital and mitigating the consequences of a always choose the right side. The others It is my honour to have the opportunity to these measures have to have sufficient interest for citizens in the province terrorist attack. should consider which side they were call attention to one of the most serious scope, and should include: political, within this framework. We are fulfilling problems that the world order faces legal, economic, social, psychological, the Brussels Agreement and we expect today, and at the same time to present communicative, educational, intelligence, Pristina to do the same. the views of the Republic of Serbia, which and finally military and police measures. In order to continue with the economic modestly and safely endeavours to fol- In the region of the Republic of Serbia, recovery of the Republic of Serbia, it low the most powerful states in dealing extremism obviously represents the is necessary to provide political and with contemporary security challenges cause and consequence of conflict. It security stability not only in Serbia, but and asymmetric threats. deepens mistrust and acts as a starkly in the surrounding areas as well. Thus, The process of globalisation has brought destabilising factor of regional sta- we are interested in preserving peace a great problem of runaway world, bility. With all its conflict potential, it and stability in the Balkans, as well as and in the era of the constant race in represents one of the most significant in Europe as a whole. technology and scientific innovation, we challenges for the normalisation of Respecting its foreign policy priorities, see sudden economic collapse, which ethnic and other relations of the Western the Ministry of Defence of the Republic destroys some of the strongest sys- Balkans countries. of Serbia will endeavour to additionally tems regardless of borders and military The Republic of Serbia is committed strengthen cooperation with all stra- structures, and there is also the new to enhancing regional cooperation tegic partners in the following period, type of asymmetric threat posed by as part of its European process. We especially in the sphere of conducting terrorism, which, being a global threat, actively contribute to bilateral security joint exercises. represents a danger to all of us. cooperation, as well as to collaboration Today Serbia, as the greatest security Instead of global rapprochement, the within regional multilateral security exporter in the region, stands again modern world is faced with a process initiatives. We are firmly committed as the guard of the most dangerous of intensive global divergence. In most to implementing the policy of military road and the most fateful gate. Serbia cases the nation state and national ambi- neutrality protecting and promoting our is successful in solving consequences tions remain strong, and the struggle for national interests. of the migration crisis, preventing power is still the main characteristic of Serbia has intensive relations with the potential threats including terrorism. international relations. Russian Federation including military Therefore, I am especially proud of the Nationalism has been discovered again and security cooperation. The support excellent cooperation within the Joint in the centre of Europe, the place which of those countries that have not Force of the Ministry of the Interior is believed to have gone furthest in recognised the unilateral declaration and the Serbian Armed Forces, which practicing a multi-ethnic social concept. of independence of so-called Kosovo in a humane and professional manner Global terrorism has become the main is of vital importance in protecting our strive to mitigate the consequences global security challenge and threat in national interests. of the migration crisis, and to quickly the 21st century because it threatens to Kosovo and Metohija is still the main respond to all attempts and activities

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AMBASSADOR LAMBERTO ZANNIER to preserve the status quo, while here they also face daily hindrances to their The OSCE is also intensifying its efforts Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in the East, we hear complaints about work, and I once again call on all sides to support the role of youth in preventing the current state of affairs, especially in to respect the monitors’ mandate and and resolving conflicts, countering global relation to the expansion of European and guarantee them freedom of movement and transnational challenges, and build- Euro-Atlantic institutions. Meanwhile, and unfettered access. ing peace across our region. We need a those caught in the middle of this This brings me to a larger point. Ultimately, new generation who can be a positive renewed competition are being pulled responsibility for achieving peace in force for change, questioning old, divisive in both directions. Ukraine lies with the local actors. I urge messages and calling for accountable and Despite these divisions and differences, all those who have influence on the sides transparent government and institutions. current challenges to security demand to press them harder to comply with the We also continue to reinforce the role of difficult for governments to continue old misperceptions or misunderstandings. cooperation. A return to zero-sum logic Minsk Agreements and to take real and women in all stages of conflict prevention policies. Growing populism, nationalism All of this forces me to conclude that we is in no one’s interest. We must continue substantial steps towards a sustainable and conflict resolution. and even xenophobia are reactions to need to reconsider the whole post-Cold to look for areas of engagement. We must peace. Millions of innocent people in the Reopening a space for real dialogue new trends, including more frequent War security arrangement. be pragmatic and seek convergences conflict region have lost their loved ones, is key. With this in mind, in May I will acts of terrorism, the proliferation of Throughout its history, the OSCE has of interests. We have no other choice. their homes and their livelihoods. They convene a Security Days in Prague on After the end of the Cold War the promise transnational threats, and the pressures been an instrument for stability. The Otherwise the dynamics of confrontation deserve peace. They deserve the chance “Countering fragmentation and polarisa- of a common and indivisible security space of mass migration. They also contribute Conference on Security and Cooperation will only continue to gain momentum and to put their lives back together. tion: Re-creating a climate for stability in stretching from Vancouver to Vladivostok to fragmentation and polarisation within in Europe was established to enable dia- could propel us into conflict. My final message to you today is that Europe”, aiming to stimulate dialogue on seemed within reach. Indeed, the vision and between societies, increasing the risk logue with the concrete aim of preventing We can see these dynamics at work right we must not abandon multilateralism, how to re-create a stable and resilient of a cooperative and rules-based order of confrontation. war. It is high time for us to revive this now in the crisis in and around Ukraine. and I would like to echo the words of UN security environment at a time of growing outlined in the Charters of Paris and We are at high risk of being drawn into a kind of results-oriented dialogue. But Completely different narratives about the Secretary-General Guterres on this. To uncertainty and unpredictability and Istanbul seemed all but inevitable. Many vicious circle driven by fear and prejudice we also need to reform the Organization crisis and its origins are fuelling mistrust prevent crises from turning into conflict, complementing the structured dialogue looked to the OSCE with high hopes and fed by a growing sense of unpredictability to ensure it has the capacity to confront and tensions, and we see increasing and to confront new challenges effectively, process launched by the 2017 Austrian great expectations. and uncertainty. This is creating a frag- contemporary challenges to stability and pressure for militarised responses. The we need comprehensive, cooperative and OSCE Chairmanship. It is now clear that the post-Cold War mented, polarised and confrontational security effectively. risk of escalation is extremely high, coordinated solutions. These can only I recently came across a very troubling order failed to provide genuine stability. environment that undermines stability The OSCE has repeatedly proved to be and it carries the potential to reignite be achieved through robust collective quote from Antonio Gramsci. In the The dissolution of the Soviet Union and and cooperation. This in turn deepens flexible and responsive. It was trans- protracted conflicts in the OSCE region engagement underpinned by strong aftermath of the World War I he said: the break-up of Yugoslavia soon shat- insecurity, further eroding stability. formed in the wake of the optimism of and beyond. At the same time, the hybrid political leadership. “The old world is dying. The new world is tered the emerging security paradigm. Some of the tools and principles we devel- the early 1990s and evolved again in nature of the crisis has shown the limits But traditional multilateralism is not struggling to emerge. It is in this twilight Divergent threat perceptions appeared. oped together to ensure security and sta- response to the ensuing conflicts. Today it of traditional crisis management tools. enough. Today we must build flexible that monsters are born”. Trust and confidence in East-West rela- bility have not withstood the challenge of continues to adapt itself to address both Achieving a peaceful and durable settle- coalitions, mobilising diverse constitu- These words should make us reflect. tions diminished. Military predictability these changes. The norms and principles traditional and emerging challenges. Yet ment to the crisis in and around Ukraine encies who can bring in new perspectives Today we seem to be facing an equally deteriorated. New borders divided peo- that underpinned the international order throughout its history, the OSCE’s fun- is more urgent than ever. The OSCE is and unique expertise to complement precarious transitional moment. But in ples, creating crises and conflicts whose for decades are being contested. Some damental characteristics have remained doing its part to facilitate the political traditional intergovernmental dynamics. contrast to Gramsci’s time, today the dire legacies still affect security today. tools have become obsolete, and we are constant. Its comprehensive approach process through the Trilateral Contact Once again, the OSCE is doing its part. international community has a well- We are now entering a new phase in struggling to develop policies to address takes into account the interconnection Group, and our Special Monitoring As the world’s largest regional security equipped toolbox of instruments and relations in the OSCE space. Although we new challenges like cyber-threats. In this and interaction of different elements Mission is working hard to de-escalate organisation under Chapter VIII of the mechanisms for preventing monsters still see signs of Cold War logic, including regard, we have some measures in place of security and seeks solutions that tensions on the ground. I would like to UN Charter, we are building broad and from emerging, and for cooperatively renewed geopolitical competition and to prevent conflict stemming from cyber- address them together. It can serve as commend our monitors for their courage strategic partnerships. We are enhancing tackling monsters already in our midst. confrontation, we have left behind both threats, but implementation is lacking. a bridge between sides that sometimes and their commitment to carrying out our engagement with our Mediterranean The OSCE, with its inclusive platform the Cold War and the post-Cold War As the balance tips further away from have radically different visions of what their work in increasingly dangerous and Asian Partners, with whom we for dialogue and joint action, is a very transition. But the new realignment is cooperation towards confrontation, mul- security means. And it continues to invest conditions. A few days ago the Mission increasingly share common security relevant tool. It is our common respon- not yet complete. In fact, the process tilateralism is being challenged. We see in efforts to prevent instability and con- experienced its first casualty, and I offer concerns. We are also strengthening our sibility to make full use of its potential is still in motion, and what shape it will this on a daily basis in the OSCE, where flict, and to deal with their consequences my heartfelt condolences to the family engagement with civil society, media and to help build a safer and more stable ultimately take remains unclear. mistrust and confrontation are crowding when they arise. of the colleague who died. This tragic academia, as well as with less traditional future for us all. Today’s world is fundamentally different out space for dialogue and cooperation. Unfortunately divergent threat percep- incident underlines the dangers that partners like municipal governments, from that of the Cold War. We now live There is a limit to what can be done if tions and different interpretations of fun- our monitors confront every day. But philanthropy and the private sector. in a multipolar, increasingly complex and governments are unwilling to engage. damental principles in this new context interconnected security environment with It can lead to a downward spiral of are undermining the OSCE’s capacity to many more actors, including non-state increasingly hostile rhetoric, greater seek common approaches. As a North- movements and groups that seek to investment in defence, growing pres- South split is starting to emerge, the exploit our divisions. sure for militarised responses, and, East-West divide is deepening not only In many countries in the OSCE region, ultimately, heightened risk of conflict — in geopolitical terms, but also in terms new national tendencies are making it including accidental conflict triggered by of values. The West has dug in its heels

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THEOLOGOS SYMEONIDIS weapons of mass destruction. Weapons benefit from prolonging this situation The constantly increasing nationalist Head of the Office of the Hellenic Minister of National Defence of mass destruction are a threat that as they increase their profits. trends which appear in various corners exceeds the limits of individual states, Terrorist attacks in Europe prove, of international community, such as the they impact global stability and their without a shadow of a doubt, the Western Balkans and South-Eastern control requires smooth cooperation ties between illegal migration and Europe in general, as well as in the among the competent international terrorism, given that a certain number territories where minorities live, are organisations, as well as interstate of terrorists that took part in particular prone to lead to the destabilisation of cooperation and action in line with their terrorist attacks entered Europe via these regions in the short term. international impact. migration flows. In every case, the The prevalence of extreme nationalism, These days, the proven deployment main priority of all states should be in combination with the phenomenon level. As a result, cooperation at every comprehensive organisation, and global of weapons of mass destruction, the the effective response to potential of irredentism and of expansionism of one of these levels with the aim being expansion of these organisations. crisis in the relations of states that threats emerging from organised nationalistic groups, could probably to eliminate terrorist threats is an Funding of terrorism from undefined have a nuclear arsenal at their disposal, criminal groups which exploit the trigger new tensions in different areas imperative necessity. sources is an important parameter the prolonged concern for the nuclear migration routes. and states. It is no coincidence therefore, In this framework, the armed forces, which should be taken seriously into programme of North Korea together In addition, concern for the security of that irredentism is the main cause that I would like to cordially thank the as they try to maintain their principal account by the international commu- with the rise of extremism and terror- a great number of states is raised by impedes the solution of long-lasting Ministry of Defence of the Russian role which comprises responding to nity. What is more alarming though, ism, turn the problem of weapons of the role of diasporas. Attacks in Europe, problems between states or between Federation for the opportunity given the operational demands of modern is the fact that these actions, in mass destruction into one of the major particularly in Brussels and Paris, states and nationalist groups, thus to me to participate in this important conflicts, are simultaneously called combination with the establishment of threats against international security clearly reveal the active engagement creating fragile balances for the con- conference with items on the agenda on to assume new roles, such as their appropriate structures for the support and humanity in general. of members of diasporas in terrorism. solidation of peace and security. that are extremely topical. commitment to humanitarian purposes and recruitment of new members for At this point, I would like draw your These incidents prove that the policies Justice, meritocracy, equal opportunities First, I would like to underline that and their engagement in actions these terrorist organisations, are still attention to a question that concerns followed by Europe for the integration for all citizens, and in general the com- our countries are linked by strong ties against terrorism. taking place within various countries my country, which is a geostrategic of migrant groups into European socie- pliance with the Universal Declaration of friendship based on, inter alia, our I would like to point out that modern increasing the risks both at the domes- hub between three continents: Europe, ties had no positive effect. In any case, of Human Rights of the United Nations common spiritual and cultural values, terrorists appear to have no hesitation. tic and at the global level. Asia, and Africa. Greece, as the south- the policy of states for the effective together constitute a strong tool in as well as our common past. Terrorist attacks that have already The participation of jihadists from eastern gateway to Europe, is one of management of this situation should the fight against convictions that could In this era of globalisation when taken place, mainly in Western Europe European countries in the wars in the states that are called on to respond be based on three axes: threaten modern societies. national borders are weakened, dis- and also here in Russia, in combination Syria and Iraq and their activation in to the problem of illegal migration and International cooperation to reinforce tances are limited and the mobility of with the rise of terrorist activity in North Africa, together with the role organised crime in combination with -- the re-orientation of the education weak state structures which are under- goods and people is increasing, states countries of North Africa and Middle they are intended to play once they terrorism. There is no doubt that illegal offered; performing, on the one hand, the reha- and international organisations are East have raised serious concerns have returned to their country of origin, migration routes are largely used by bilitation of democratic institutions and called to face new emerging threats within the international community. remains a constant and deep concern organised crime, providing a source of -- the application of other integration the control over centres of power which to international security and peace. A basic kind of threat that stems from for international security. resources, originating mainly from the policies; feed various scenarios of irredentism, on These threats have created a volatile terrorism is that of religious extremism. Greece, as member state of the United illicit trafficking of weapons, drugs and the other, should become a priority for environment, favouring the multipli- There is no doubt that conflicts in the Nations, the European Union and human trafficking. -- the implementation of practices aimed the international actors. The final aim cation of supra-national risks against name of religion constitute a serious NATO, firmly supports every effort of It is worth noting that in those states at controlling and confining persons should be to eradicate these phenomena. security. The latter mainly refers to threat to global security. the international community for the that are already weak, the flow of and groups that spread intolerance The fight against terrorism, illegal the spread of international terrorism, These conflicts do not have borders. consolidation of stability, security, and resources linked to international crim- and fanaticism. migration, international crime, and the rapidly increasing trends of illegal Because of the dispersion of people peace around the globe. inal networks can help sustain para- the proliferation of weapons of mass migration and international organised with radical convictions over the whole For this reason, our Armed Forces statal groups and organisations that Regarding the threat to international destruction, which are a threat to the crime, the spread of uncontrolled space of the international community, have participated and will continue could be strong enough to question security posed by extreme nationalism, international community, depends, on the weapons trafficking, as well as the sus- religious conflicts can spill over every- to actively participate, together with the ability of these states to maintain I should point out that this phenomenon on hand, on the level and effectiveness of tainment and strengthening of radical where in the world. our allies and partners, in multinational their sovereignty. is indeed the source of many conflicts cooperation and, on the other hand, on trends, such as extreme nationalism Security and stability are not missions and operations for the consol- In addition, the interconnection of and an eventual reason for the desta- the strategy followed by every state and and irredentism. guaranteed for a country that is idation of peace and crisis management, organised crime with terrorism is a bilisation of the international system. its ability to formulate effective policies The fight against terrorism should home to conflicting religious groups. in various countries, and are willing to dimension that should worry us deeply, It is also an important factor of concern against these threats. become the first priority for the Terrorist attacks carried out mainly contribute to international efforts for mainly because this strengthens and and polarisation between different Border security is one of the major international community. Modern by extremist Islamic organisations are the promotion of peace, fight against financially supports terrorist entities. groups (religious, ethnic, etc.) in the factors in a resolute response to the terrorism exceeds the limits of internal characterised by three basic elements: terrorism, and the creation of peaceful For instance, the illegal oil trade had wider areas where it appears. In such phenomenon of terrorism and the security services’ ability to manage first, that of surprise or no-warning living conditions in countries that are been a source of resources for terrorist an environment, the action and influence various kinds of threats it generates. it and acquires characteristics of a of terrorist attack, second, integrist particularly affected by conflicts. organisations, particularly ISIS. Apart of extremist elements is favoured and is In this respect, the capacity of states threat with global traits, with par- fanaticism and self-sacrifice, and last, Another threat for international security from that, it seems that various coun- spread within states and societies which to control their borders, in combination ticular consequences for security at access to financial resources that are is the uncontrolled trafficking of weap- tries and companies also participate in are tormented by intense conflicts and with assistance from international international, regional and national extremely important for the viability, ons systems and the deployment of this illegal oil trade, drawing mutual separatist trends. organisations due to the supra-national

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nature of threats, undoubtedly remains Central Mediterranean, called SOPHIA. Greece, as member of the principal inter- STJEPAN MESIĆ a substantial measure for the effective Before closing, I would like to mention national organisations and as a state Ex-President of the Republic of Croatia, public activist management of terrorism. that the Russian Federation together which promotes peace and international The international community has proven with the United States remain the main law, is willing to cooperate with other that it can cope with common threats actors who safeguard international members of international community when it cooperates harmoniously. This security and their cooperation in the to deter and respond to any possible was demonstrated by the international fight against terrorism is extremely threat which puts at risk global security. cooperation in the fight against piracy important. For this reason, any possible With these thoughts in mind, I welcome and the protection of free navigation differences in concepts of global security the organisation of this very important in the coastal waters of Somalia but should be brought closer together so as conference and I am sure that fertile also by the deployment of operation to effectively respond to the common conclusions will come out of the pres- the world as a whole, and for Europe in environment, many tend to forget — or Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 in the enemy. In any case, relations of trust entations and the subsequent discussion, particular, that was a landmark event. deliberately to brush aside — the key maritime region of the Aegean within are a prerequisite for the creation of favouring creative cooperation between Back at the time, we hoped, and we principles of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act. the framework of the fight against the the international environment which all of us, to the benefit of peace and firmly believed, that it was the beginning That is why it is becoming clearer with migratory trafficking network, and finally, is necessary for the consolidation of security at the international level. of the road to a better and safer future. each passing day that the EU, despite the operation of the European Union in global security. I would like to begin in a somewhat unu- Yes, we believed and we hoped. And yes, the “union” in its name, is becoming sual way, but I hope you will understand we were wrong. increasingly disunited, and lacking the why. I will repeat, word for word, a few Looking at today’s Europe, one has to political will — let alone mechanisms — phrases from my speech at last year’s admit that the Old World is now living in to change the situation. conference in Moscow. Back at the time, a climate of a renewed Cold War. Even Peace in Europe, which was the greatest I said, and I quote, “The tone that is though the European countries now achievement of the integration process, now used to discuss war and peace in have a common currency, and in most and which had lasted since the victory Europe, and the need for a new system cases open borders (albeit there are over fascism in 1945, was, frankly speak- of European security, is equally chal- growing questions about that openness), ing, interrupted by the bloody wars that lenging and sensitive. In other words, we security and stability have become for resulted in the break-up of Yugoslavia. are living in an era when it appears that them something almost unattainable But even after those wars, peace once all the previously accepted foundations compared with, say, the situation only again settled in Europe, and no one of international relations are not being a decade ago. could predict the situation I described taken into account; in a time when might This is the reality that we have. And we in my last year’s remarks, and which makes right, and when force is used to have to admit it, unless of course we are has essentially remained unchanged to impose regimes that suit someone’s prepared to lie to ourselves and to others. this day. preferences”. I intentionally use the harsh word “lie”, The situation may have become even Why did I just repeat those words? because shameful lies have become an more alarming. In fact, it has become Because I wanted to draw your attention integral component of modern politics; more alarming, without “mays”. to the worrying fact that over the past indeed, they have in some cases become Europe increasingly resembles a huge year, nothing has changed for the better the essence of politics. military base, to which hundreds of on the international arena. Truth be told, We have biased, polarised, and cen- tanks and thousands of soldiers are we saw some very hopeful signs sug- tralised media that sometimes appear being brought from the other side of gesting that the United States, led by a to be led by a pro-Fascist propaganda the Atlantic. It is living in a climate that new president, would abandon the policy minister, such as Goebbels. We have the may seem new to the young people, but of imposing regimes on other countries. internet and web portals, which are full is very familiar to people of my genera- But now we have concrete evidence of trash. We also have plenty of impartial tion — a climate of Cold War, which may that the new president is facing a analysis — but it finds it difficult to find at any moment degenerate into an open growing rejection of his policy in his own its way to the front pages of newspapers armed conflict. country — and I am not talking about or to the national TV networks, be they At the same time, it is obvious to rejection by the electorate. I am talking commercial or publicly owned. any impartial observer that neither about rejection by influential circles, the Finally, we have the social networks, Western Europe nor any of its con- hidden actors behind the curtains. The which are using freedom of speech as stituent parts are really menaced by new US president is therefore increas- an excuse for peddling prejudice, ste- any aggression from the East. Yes, the ingly leaning towards the previous reotypes, fabricated reports, and worst current situation in Ukraine is danger- American course. of all, hatred. That is a phenomenon ous, but we have the Minsk Accords, At this point I have to mention the people don’t like to discuss, but we can’t which pave the way to a resolution of Conference on Security and Cooperation simply ignore it. that problem. It is important for both in Europe, held in Helsinki in 1975. For In this political and information sides to abide by these accords — and

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I stress, both sides; each must fulfil for our own selves. Now let me return say that I can see no other way out of ALEXANDER GRUSHKO the commitments it has undertaken. once again to what I said last year. I must the current crisis. Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to NATO Speaking of Ukraine, and of the growing reiterate that Europe needs a new — or There is no alternative to a European fear of aggression, which is allegedly rather, renovated — security system. identity and European interests. imminent, there is one other aspect we This means that we should return to There is no alternative to cooperation must take into account. That aspect is strict compliance with the principles of between Russia and the EU, and to clearly becoming a major obstacle to international law, and with the virtually Russia’s inclusion in the European security and stability in Europe. I am forgotten basic principles of the Helsinki integration project. But trying to talking about information warfare — Final Act. In short, security in Europe engage Russia will not bear fruit if it is wars being waged with the help of cannot be provided by piling up arms based solely on throwing accusations inaccurate or semi-accurate facts and troops, by demonstrations of force, at Moscow. The accusations being run. Clearly, all the investment in the buying new weapons. That is a colossal through the mass media. by “inventing” nonexistent enemies, and voiced now are not backed by any solid, infrastructure, the tanks being brought amount of money. Such a turn of events That warfare has two greatest victims. by mobilising the public for fighting a concrete evidence. Their usual wording in — all of that will require continued would mean an undeniable militarisation The first victim is the journalists them- nonexistent adversary. is, “we know it for certain but cannot ideological and political pretexts. As a of Europe — and that in a situation where selves. What is called journalism these There is only one way to provide security reveal our sources”. result, we risk finding ourselves trapped there are no genuine military threats. days has nothing in common with what in Europe: all sovereign states must have Europe must carefully weigh everything I largely share the worries expressed in the logic of the Cold War — something That in a situation when money should used to be an honest and respected equal rights; they should desist from any before irrevocably siding with those who today in this chamber over the security familiar to us all — with hostile military be spent not on defending against the profession. The second victim is the use of force; they should resolve their make such accusations. It should think, situation in Europe. I would also like planning requiring ongoing ideological imaginary Russian threat, but on standing public, which has been deprived of vital differences only by peaceful means; they first and foremost, whether it would be to point out the high quality of the support. Let me emphasise once again: up to the risks originating from the South, information and is increasingly being should not meddle in the internal affairs in its own interests. discussion, the comprehensive analysis, breaking out of this vicious circle will especially on fighting terrorism and other manipulated. of other states; they should respect the Similarly, there is no alternative to multi- and the sincere efforts to seek a path be very difficult, and the tactic of small unconventional threats that require a very As a result, the main victim of the right of peoples to self-determination; culturalism and a multi-faith society, to normalisation, towards confronting steps will not work in this case. We need different kind of investment, including propaganda war sponsored by the pursue interstate cooperation; and abide to tolerance and acceptance of distinct together the challenges and threats drastic steps to put an end to what is now different military investment. governments and the secret services — by their international commitments. national characteristics; there are no facing us all — especially as these efforts going on in Central Europe — which, as The third issue I would like to raise is and we should have no illusions about Does it all sound familiar? Of course reasons for standing disunited, of for are being made in this difficult situation, some commentators rightly pointed out that all of this is happening amid a total that — is security and stability in Europe it does. These principles used to be at barring anyone from any clubs. when many in Europe really have no idea today, used to be a region most safe and freeze on all systemic military-to-military today, and all over the world tomorrow. the foundation of the entire system of Or rather, there is only a single alterna- what to do. I would like, however, to free of any classical threats. contacts. The situation is very grave, That should be said loud and clear! international relations. Europe’s duty — tive: a return to a raging nationalism, to draw your attention to three factors The second issue I would like to raise and NATO is not making any attempts Europe is now facing the consequences however unlikely it sounds today — is national ghettos surrounded by barbed I believe will have a major systemic is the danger of the Western campaign to resume military-to-military dialogue. of a dangerous and misguided policy to embark upon an internal European wire, and to disowning everything mil- impact on such efforts. of ramping up military spending. Let us To conclude, these three issues may not of imposing regimes and economically reassessment of values and an internal lions of people died for in the struggle First, 2017 will go down in the history not forget that the US $250 billion the be among the main topics of discussion exploiting the developing and the remodelling. The goal of that exercise against Nazism and Fascism. of Europe as the year when the deci- European countries spend on their defence at various political venues. But they underdeveloped countries. It is slowly is to make Europe an independent actor In the end, this would lead to war! sions taken at the Warsaw Summit on is a stratospheric sum, higher than the represent long-term factors that will but surely drowning in the mire of on the international stage, an actor that Are we prepared to accept such an strengthening NATO’s eastern flank will Russian and Chinese military spending continue to stifle any attempts to move right-wing populism. I don’t agree with could help others to turn aside from their alternative? Of course not! be implemented in terms of additional put together. And if the European NATO towards normalisation, towards some those who speak only of European erroneous path. And that is why we should all say loud military hardware. As we can see, the members and Canada meet the target set mechanisms of cooperation based on skepticism — though one must admit Let me reiterate that this can be achieved and clear — compared to how this has policy of confrontation announced at in Warsaw, their military spending will rise building security together with Russia that the European project, the way it has only by an independent Europe, speaking been done in past several decades that summit is now taking the shape by an additional US $100 billion a year, for rather than separately from Russia, let been going in recent years, gives plenty in one voice of its own accord because it since politics of tensions eased — we of tangible military preparations. These a total of US $350 billion, of which 20%, alone against Russia. of reasons to be skeptical about it. has realised that the European interests should say that the only solution is preparations are being made for the long or 70 billion, is supposed to be spent on I am talking about skepticism that has are also global interests. To some, a cooperation, mutual respect, and mutual become a mask for the forces that draw return to the basic principles of Helsinki, understanding. their inspiration from the dark pages of to the basics of international relations I should therefore like to conclude my 20th-century European history. That that have now been completely distorted remarks just as I did last year: We shall should be said for all to hear. And if we and forgotten, may seem a painful or not let those who profit from war take see that danger in one country, we must even impossible process, given the away peace from us! be sufficiently clear-sighted to notice it current state of affairs. in other countries as well. Otherwise, our I cannot criticise those who think it will short-sightedness will create problems be very difficult or impossible. But I must

/66 /67 2017 /European Security: prospects and trends

JUHA MARTELIUS VLADIMIR ORLOV Special Adviser to the Minister of Defence of the Republic of Finland Head of the Centre for Global Trends and International Organisations at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

has been a shared belief that common to further national interests within all The revival of Ukraine must and can I do not link it with the issue of economic values are, indeed, common. Europeans available means. Unfortunately, this has become such a project. It should be partnerships. have sought to develop open, democratic been confirmed again. based on three legally binding pillars. Ensuring equal rights for all people in societies whose activities are based on Confronted with the increasingly unsta- The first pillar is a guaranteed and legally Ukraine is another issue that will require rule of law and human rights. It is now ble security situation in Europe, we see binding neutral status of Ukraine, similar taking into consideration Europe’s As we have heard on many occasions clear that power politics has made a an urgent need to work also for strategic Donald Trump is unwilling to get bogged to that of Finland or Austria. The second experience. The situation is so neglected today, the global political system in comeback. Continuous changes in the stability, restraint, predictability and down in the confrontations currently pillar should be ensuring and guarantee- that it might be too late to address this the world is in turmoil. The change is security environment and the multi- verifiable transparency to reduce both seen in Europe, in particular regarding ing respect for human rights, including issue through providing autonomy. It is reflected in the fact that the main pillars purpose use or threat of power have security and military risks. Ukraine. He is doing his best to discard language issues, throughout Ukraine more and more likely that the issue of and institutions from the Cold War multi- become “a new normal”. I would like to conclude by reminding that, this part of the US agenda. That is what from its West to Donetsk and Lugansk. federalisation may appear on the agenda. lateral order are deteriorating. In Europe, Idealism could not carry us sufficiently in a situation like this, it is important not took Angela Merkel to Sochi earlier this The third pillar should be Russia's and I have been now speaking about the this means that the rules and principles far in situations where national interests always to react when provoked, and to month, the very Sochi that she was so Europe’s joint economic assistance to best-case scenario. However, I see that of collective security are increasingly were tested. A key theorem in the school maintain a dialogue with other countries short-sighted to ignore in February 2014. Ukraine, aiming to facilitate Ukraine’s the “war party” is on the rise in Kiev, faced with challenges. of thought of classical political realism so that we can together address common The question “What is a new European recovery, under the condition that the desperately trying to catch Trump’s From the beginning of the 1990s there is that states maximise their efforts security issues. security architecture?” now requires an country manages to eliminate their attention. It is a critical moment. The risk immediate and clear answer. record-breaking corruption and poor of provocation is high. What will be the The current European security architec- public administration. outcome? Obviously, it would lead to a ture resembles a dilapidated bridge that We can clearly hear skeptics claiming new escalation of the conflict, eventually people use only because no new bridge that Europe will never accept Ukraine resulting in the balkanisation of Ukraine. has been constructed. Time and again, as a neutral state. But is it really the If this is not Europe’s goal, then Europe holes in this bridge are patched. However, case? It is not only the United State that should urgently warn the “chevaliers of leaning on the bridge railing is dangerous. is exhausted with Ukraine, Europe is too. fortune” in Kiev against any attempts Russia offers its own drawings of a new This fatigue leads to a more active search at self-affirmation through bloodshed. bridge from time to time, but neither for a way out. Recently, NATO Secretary The next step should be Europe and political will nor creativity to launch the General Jens Stoltenberg, responding Russia joining forces to prepare mutually “Russia plus Europe” joint venture can be at a meeting in Geneva to a question acceptable outlines of the new European seen on the Western side. (raised by a Ukrainian expert, by the security architecture so that a détente So, will we just sit and wait until the way), confirmed that NATO could accept over Ukraine can lead to a new détente old bridge collapses? That would be Ukraine as a neutral state provided this across Europe. unacceptable. First, we need to increase is a choice made by the Ukrainian people. the level of confidence in our capabilities. By focusing on the historical examples We need a successful pilot project for a of Finland or Austria, I intentionally new Europe, a major and ambitious one. emphasise their military neutrality but

/68 /69 Discussion 1 Middle East: modern objectives of counter- terrorism and counter-radicalism 2017 /Middle East: modern objectives of counter-terrorism and counter-radicalism

COLONEL-GENERAL SERGEY RUDSKOY Moderator Colonel-General Sergey Rudskoy Corps General Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff — Evgeny Satanovsky Chief of the Main Operational Directorate Mahmoud Shawa First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces President of the Institute of the General Staff — First Deputy Chief Deputy Minister of Defence of the Middle East of the General Staff of the Russian of the Syrian Arab Republic Armed Forces

In response to a request by Syrian President smuggling. The main routes used by the distance of up to 1,500 km, as well as Bashar al-Assad for military assistance in militants to replenish their weapons and using long-range bombers. the fight against international terrorism, ammunition supplies have been cut off. The superiority of the Russian forces and in accordance with a decision made I should also note that strikes are in reconnaissance, electronic warfare, on 30 September 2015 by the Supreme delivered only against legitimate targets command and control, and strike sys- Commander of the Russian Armed Forces, confirmed by various intelligence sources, tems has enabled them to wage warfare after notifying the interested state parties, including satellites and UAVs. Any use without coming into close contact with combat aircraft of the Russian Aerospace of air strikes or artillery against cultural the adversary or putting themselves in Forces delivered air strikes against ISIS heritage sites, mosques, schools, and harm’s way. and Jabhat al-Nusra international ter- hospitals is completely ruled out, even The precise composition of the Russian rorist organisations’ targets in the Syrian when terrorists are present at those sites. air group in Syria has varied depending Arab Republic. By the time the Russian operation in on the current objectives. The number By the time our military operation began, Syria was launched, the Russian armed of the Russian aircraft in Syria, including the situation in Syria had become critical. forces had rapidly built up a strong carrier-based planes deployed there from Major-General Lieutenant-General Christine Beerli The Syrian government was engaged contingent at the Khmeimim airbase, 10 November 2016, to 10 January 2017, Mohamed Elkeshky Mahmoud Freihat Vice-President of the International in a lone struggle against terrorism in consisting of only modern or upgraded has never gone above 35 aircraft. Deputy Minister of Defence Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee of the Red Cross Syrian territory, whereas the forces of aircraft equipped with advanced tar- Following the ceasefire announced in of the Arab Republic of Egypt of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan the so-called “moderate opposition” had geting and navigation systems. That February 2016, and in view of the ongoing essentially merged with ISIS and Jabhat enabled the Russian forces to deliver stabilisation of the situation in Syria, there al-Nusra, which had a more generous high-precision strikes against militants all are now fewer terrorist targets left in the financing, as well as a flow of weapons and over Syria without entering the effective country. This has enabled Russia to pull ammunition, from their foreign sponsors. range of the adversary’s man-portable out almost half of its aircraft from the Terrorists were in control of more than air defence systems. Additionally, the Khmeimim base. 70% of Syrian territory, and continued use of reconnaissance-strike systems A comparative analysis of the results their offensive on all fronts. The country’s consisting of reconnaissance, command, achieved by the Russian air forces in resources were close to exhaustion. Not and communication complexes enabled Syria versus the results of the inter- only Syrian statehood, but the security the Russian forces to implement the “one national coalition’s air forces indicates of the entire region was in jeopardy. A target — one bomb” principle of operation. that with just a fraction of the coalition’s recently prosperous country was turning The effectiveness of Russian combat number of planes, the Russian forces into a source of the spread of the terror operations in Syria is further augmented have nevertheless flown three times as threat throughout the entire Middle East. by the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. many sorties, and delivered four times This scenario posed a direct threat to Approximately 80 drones are deployed as many missile and bomb strikes. Since Russian national security because in Syria, enabling the Russian forces the beginning of the Russian military ISIS was quite clear about its plans to continuously to monitor the situation operation in Syria, Russian aircraft have advance towards Central Asia, the Russian on the ground, receive intelligence about flown over 23,000 sorties, and delivered Caucasus, and the Volga region. We esti- targets in real time, and promptly launch more than 74,000 air strikes. mate that by early 2015, ISIS and other strikes against those targets. Meanwhile, Russian military advisers terror groups had about 4,500 Russian and Russia has also deployed a multi-tier are providing significant assistance to CIS citizens fighting in their ranks. command and control system that relies the Syrian army command. They are As a result of the strikes delivered by the on the latest technology. It has enabled involved in planning military operations, Russian Aerospace Forces, the terrorists’ the Russian forces to monitor the situation in the provision of intelligence information, command and logistics infrastructure in the air and on the ground throughout and in training the Syrian armed forces and sustained crippling damage. The flow of the whole country from the Khmeimim people’s militias. Our specialists coordi- resources feeding the ISIS and Jabhat airfield, and to control Russian troops all nate strikes of the Russian Aerospace al-Nursa gangs has been disrupted and the way down to the tactical tier. Forces with operations by the Syrian in some places halted altogether. Terror Key terrorist targets are destroyed using government forces on the ground. On groups have been left without their main cruise missiles launched from ships, the most important stretches of the front, source of revenues generated by the oil submarines, and heavy bombers at a they perform the full scope of operational

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planning and control troops on the ground. A large ISIS force was destroyed north Also, in 2015–2016, government forces militants voluntarily laid down their the Russian embassy and the embassy now being worked out. One example is the operation to liberate of Aleppo earlier this year. Government and their allies captured 448 tanks and weapons. As part of that uniquely large building itself, regularly come under mortar These measures have sped up the process Palmyra, conducted in March under troops have liberated 41 towns and vil- other armored fighting vehicles, 57 multi- and complex humanitarian operation, fire from those districts. To neutralise that of signing truce agreements with the local the control and supervision of Russian lages, and advanced to areas southwest of ple launch rocket systems, 418 improvised 28,528 irreconcilable militants and threat, Syrian government troops have administrations and armed groups. To military advisers. In a space of six weeks, the city of Manbij, which is held by Kurdish MLRS, 410 mortars, and more than 28,000 members of their families, as well as launched a special operation to eliminate date, such agreements have been reached government troops and militias overcame self-defence forces. During that operation, pieces of small arms from the militants. everyone who expressed their wish the terrorist forces from the affected areas. with the leaders of 1,464 cities, towns, fierce resistance put up by the terrorists in the Russian Aerospace Forces and the During the Russian military operation, to leave Aleppo, were moved to the Meanwhile, in another suburb of Damascus, and villages, with a combined population difficult mountainous terrain, crushed the Turkish Air Force for the first time worked our troops have destroyed more than Idlib province. Eastern Qalamoun, moderate opposition of over 6.36 million. ISIS forces, advanced more than 60 km, and together against terrorists. 2,000 militants hailing from Russia itself, At present, Aleppo is quickly returning forces have signed a reconciliation agree- Specialists from the International Mine took full control of Palmyra. 12 population The government offensive in the northeast including 17 field commanders. All of to normalcy. Servicemen of the Russian ment and are working in coordination with Action Centre of the Russian Armed centres and 665 sq. km of territory were of the Aleppo province is also making those militants were planning to spread military police are helping to maintain law the Syrian army. Forces are now engaged in humanitarian liberated. good progress. In a space of six weeks, the ideas of radical Islam and to bring and order in the city, while the Russian As part of a joint operation by the Syrian mine clearance in the Syrian territories As a result of that operation, the terrorists government troops have liberated 90 jihad to the territory of Russia. Centre for Reconciliation is delivering army and the opposition forces, ISIS liberated from terrorists. The largest lost more than 1,000 personnel, 35 tanks, towns and villages and 1,525 sq. km of The lessons we have learnt fighting terror- humanitarian cargos to those in need on militants have been dislodged from mine clearance projects have been 37 armoured fighting vehicles, and 264 territory. Russian aircraft have destroyed ism in Syria suggest that the Syrian crisis a daily basis. Military medics working at commanding high points near the completed in Damascus, Palmyra, and pickup trucks used as chassis for heavy 536 ISIS targets, including ammunition cannot be resolved by military measures the hospital deployed in Aleppo by the Damascus–Palmyra road. Government Aleppo. In Aleppo alone, mines and weapons systems. As present, Syrian gov- depots, bases, and large concentrations alone. In addition to eliminating terrorist Russian Ministry of Defence are providing forces have retaken a 15 km stretch of unexploded ammunition containing a ernment troops are extending their area of armoured vehicles. Meanwhile, Syrian forces in Syria, we need to work with invaluable assistance to the city’s pop- that strategically important motorway total of 66,000 tonnes of explosives of control around Palmyra and continue government troops have reached the those armed groups that are ready to end ulation. Quality medical care has been that had been controlled by terrorists have been disarmed. Work is still under their eastward offensive. Lake Assad reservoir and continue their the fighting and return to peace. We also provided to more than 14,000 people. Work for three years. way to clear Palmyra of landmines and The Russian Special Operations Forces, offensive along the west bank of the need to provide humanitarian assistance is underway to rebuild homes, schools, The turnaround achieved in the struggle unexploded munitions. Since the start along with the aviation and ground troops, Euphrates. In fact, the Syrian army has to civilians in the liberated territories. To hospitals, and other social infrastructure against terrorism in Syria has forced a of the operation in Syria, Russian engi- made a decisive contribution to crushing already reached the Jirah airfield. that end, Russia has set up the Centre facilities in Aleppo. This has enabled more number of political actors to reassess the neers have cleared mines from 4,876 terrorists in and around Palmyra. They Nevertheless, terrorists in Syria have yet for Reconciliation of Opposing Sides at than 56,000 residents to return to their balance of power in the region. This has hectares of territory, 14,934 buildings proved themselves highly effective, and to be completely defeated. ISIS and Jabhat the Khmeimim airbase. The centre and homes in eastern Aleppo. made it possible to launch the process and structures, and over 1,130 km of played the key role in eliminating senior al-Nusra forces are putting up fierce resist- its branches in the Aleppo, Damascus, The lessons learnt during the operation to of political settlement and reconciliation motorways. A total of about 59,000 terrorist commanders, destroying key ance, and demonstrating their readiness Homs, and Latakia provinces are already liberate Aleppo are applied in other parts of the warring factions. That process is mines and explosive items were found infrastructure facilities, and acting as for a bitter war of attrition. For example, up and running. of Syria. An agreement has been reached also facilitated by international meetings and defused. spotters for our air strikes. starting from 21 March, several terrorist Servicemen from the Russian Centre for on the Al Waer district of the city of Homs in the Astana format, which have already The Russian Armed Forces are continu- The Russian military operation has ena- groups attempted an offensive against the Reconciliation have conducted 1,085 joining the cessation of hostilities regime. become a regular occurrence. ously analysing the lessons learnt from bled the Syrian armed forces to achieve a city of Hama. A force consisting of more humanitarian actions since 2016. As part With the Russian Centre for Reconciliation After years of bitter confrontation, repre- the campaign against terrorists in Syria. complete turnaround. As of today, large than 10,000 militants — mostly Jabhat of those actions, they have delivered more acting as mediator, more than 8,500 mili- sentatives of the Syrian government, of Let me outline our key conclusions. terrorist forces have been destroyed in and al-Nusra and its allies — was amassed than 1,610 tonnes of food, medicines, tants and members of their families have the armed opposition, and of the guarantor First, terrorist organisations are pursuing round Hama and Homs; militants have also in an area held by the opposition. Using and essential supplies to Syrian civilians. been moved from that district to territories states — Russia, Turkey, and Iran — with increasingly ambitious goals, and are been dislodged from Latakia. Government their numerical advantage, the terrorists Additionally, Russian cargo parachutes controlled by the pro-Turkish opposition. the UN also taking part, gathered at the prepared to engage in an open armed forces have substantially improved their managed to seize several towns and have been used to drop 1,869 tonnes of More than 600 former members of the mil- negotiating table. confrontation with legitimate security situation in the Damascus province and in villages near Hama and approach the supplies to cities besieged by the militants. itants’ forces have returned to civilian life As a result of the agreements reached forces to achieve those goals. the suburbs of the Syrian capital. Palmyra, city itself. Thanks to courageous action The Il-76 transports supplied by Russia under the terms of an amnesty announced between the armed opposition and Second, international terrorism recog- a world cultural heritage site, and the by Syrian government troops and to air to Syria for that purpose have flown 82 by the Syrian government. At the request the Syrian government with Turkish nises no national borders. Defeating city of Al-Qaryatayn, which sits astride support by the Russian Aerospace Forces, missions. The Russian forces provided of field commanders, security during that and Russian mediation, a cessation of it will therefore require cooperative key communications between Damascus the situation in the area has now been support, including fighter escorts, for operation was provided by servicemen of hostilities regime was announced on 30 action by all the interested state parties and eastern Syria, have been liberated. stabilised, and the terrorists have been airdrops of UN humanitarian aid by Abakan the Russian Centre for Reconciliation and December 2016, all over Syria. To date, and international organisations. The The main road between Damascus and pushed back more than 10 km from Hama. Air; a total of 4,305 tonnes of food was of a military police battalion. 204 individual armed units representing nature of that action should be not northern Syria is now under government During fierce fighting in the area, more delivered like this to the city of Deir ez-Zor, The reconciliation process is also well the moderate opposition have committed only force-based, but also political, control; communications between the than 4,500 militants, 68 armoured vehicles, which is currently blockaded by ISIS forces. under way in Eastern Ghouta, a suburb themselves to abiding by that regime, and economic, information-related, etc. capital and Aleppo have also become 22 of the so-called jihad-mobiles, and The best example of the work of the of Damascus. Representatives of the local their number continues to grow. An especially important component is much safer. The government has restored more than 150 trucks used as chassis for Russian Centre for Reconciliation is authorities and the leaders of the self- The issue of separating the moderate an ideological campaign to prevent the control of the Jisel, Hayyan, and Magara heavy weapons systems were destroyed. the humanitarian operation conducted defence forces in that area have signed opposition forces from the terrorist groups, spread of terrorist ideas and to deprive oil and gas fields. Since the beginning of the Russian military during the liberation of Aleppo from agreements on joining the cessation of which the Western countries previously the militants of support among the local The main event of last year was the operation in Syria, the legitimate Syrian militants. During that operation, more hostilities regime. failed to tackle, is now resolved in practice. populations. liberation of Aleppo, which is often called government has retaken 692 population than 108,000 civilians, including 47,000 But the situation still remains difficult in The Russian initiative on discussing a draft Third, to wage successful warfare against Syria’s second capital. That victory has centres and over 135,000 sq. km of terri- children, were moved from the eastern the Jobar and Qaboun districts, which are of a new Syrian constitution has also terrorists, with their distinct tactics and major military and political implications tory. This has enabled the return of more part of the city, which was held by the held by Jabhat al-Nusra forces. Syrian found a broad backing. The mechanism weaponry, the armed forces should have for the entire country. than 108,000 refugees to their homes. militants, to safe areas. Some 4,138 capital, including the district that hosts of discussing and adopting that draft is special training. Classical warfare methods,

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developed to fight regular armies, are not the facilities that generate revenue for the Khmeimim airbase and the Russian CORPS GENERAL MAHMOUD SHAWA always effective in this case. terrorists, as well as their logistics and Navy’s station in Tartus remain opera- Deputy Minister of Defence of the Syrian Arab Republic Fourth, fighting terrorists who use civilians command and control infrastructure. We tional, helping to maintain the strategic as human shields requires the ability to should also aim to limit their ability to balance in the region and to contain the deliver prompt surgical strikes in order to manoeuvre their forces and assets. spread of terrorist groups in Syria and avoid civilian casualties. To conclude, let me emphasise that the neighbouring states. We should target, first and foremost, Russian Aerospace Forces’ air group at Today, our conference takes place and cultural immaturity are important causes of terrorism are eliminated and against the background of important factors contributing to the formation of the channels for its financing are cut changes happening on the world stage, an environment conducive to terrorism, off through joint international efforts, in particular in our region, on the back which is based not on sexual, religious or the situation will only worsen due to of dangerous events resulting from the racial belonging, but on social, cultural, the intensive growth in the number of spread of terrorism that threatens the and economic conditions of life. terrorist groups and their proliferation security and stability of our states and Terrorism recognises no state or regional as a result of internal splits that the future of our nations. borders, and it is ready to spread in any make terrorists even more cruel and In this regard, our conference becomes direction. It can be said that the threat bloodthirsty. This is what we see today very important, which is dictated by the of international terrorism to which all in Syria, where terrorist organisations urgent need to find ways and means of states in the world are exposed results continue to disintegrate, giving birth to countering terror, curbing its spread, from the lack of determination and new groups under new names. They do eliminating its threat and preventing commitment among the international not differ in terms of their extremist and its catastrophic consequences. community to rebuff violators of philosophical nature, their methods and We, the Syrians, taking part in this international treaties and legal norms. crimes from their parent organisation, conference today, reaffirm the need for Moreover, the absence of one consistent but may pose even a greater threat after serious strengthening of mutual coop- international definition of terrorism, they split from it. eration between all states for the sake which would cover all its manifestations Speaking of international terrorism, we of eliminating the threat of international and causes, leaves loopholes enabling cannot but touch upon transcontinental terrorism, from which no geographical some parties to patronise terrorism terrorism. When terrorism has a certain location on the globe is safe. directly or indirectly. This enables ideological foundation, its threat is not We all know that the ailment of terrorism, terrorist organisations to act and move limited only to the country of origin or which has been tormenting our region under the cover of legitimacy given to its neighbouring regions. Terrorism rep- and many other countries of the world them by some forces in the world. resented by Al-Qaeda and its extremist for many years, is not an occasional The apparent inconsistency of the posi- offspring known as ISIS is not a national phenomenon and has not emerged from tions of a number of states with regard organisation having goals limited to nowhere. There are objective causes to the phenomenon of terrorism and the borders of a single state. This is for its emergence, and it is driven by a their reluctance to play a serious role in international terrorism that is based on range of important factors contributing countering terrorism and limit its spread goals and programmes that recognise to its spread, as well as by the actions is an important factor contributing to neither states nor borders. of some parties that need not to be the expansion of terrorism and the While states could still resist the threat mentioned here and that promote and increase of its threat. of terrorism emanating from terrorist support its ideas, plans, and goals. This is especially noticeable in the organisations operating on the basis of Extremist theories would not have been light of the policy of double standards national plans, combating international, able to spread among communities in pursued by some states with respect to transboundary and transcontinental many countries in recent years but for other nations and countries. In addition, terrorism requires a strong international the existence of ideological sources a selective approach to the interpre- commitment and the coordination of the fuelling such theories, especially given tation of terrorism offers terrorism an actions of security agencies of different that there are no constraints, legislative opportunity for further growth and countries, which would ensure the uni- or governmental barriers in their way. dissemination. Therefore, it is necessary versal deterrence of the terrorist threat. It is important to note the role of the to develop a comprehensive approach The fight against terrorism requires environment in which such ideas are and join international efforts to identify the implementation of decisions of cultivated and transmitted by individu- and eliminate the causes of terrorism. international organisations and the als and groups of individuals, as well as Uncoordinated efforts will always have development of a balanced policy that economic and cultural factors providing a limited scope and will not be able to does not use double standards in defining a fertile soil for the assimilation of eliminate the causes of terrorism, which this phenomenon. It is necessary to work such ideas. Poverty, unsatisfied basic lie beyond the competence of each out measures to eradicate terrorism, needs, illiteracy, underdevelopment, individual party. However, unless the which are based on the rejection of

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manifestations of hegemonism and terrorism, sharing information and rein- moral and humanitarian duty towards MAJOR-GENERAL MOHAMED ELKESHKY the imposition of decisions, and on the forcing mutual security. We should not the Syrian people and all other nations Deputy Minister of Defence of the Arab Republic of Egypt cessation of colonial expansion and the disregard the fact that the development of our region, who have suffered for use of terrorism as a policy tool. National of communication technologies has many years from the adversities of war, and cultural specifics of other countries facilitated contacts and interaction destruction and terrorism, having faced and nations should be respected; the between members of terrorist cells and systematic devastating actions aimed states that promote, support and organisations, helping them to pursue at erasing our historical, cultural and I am glad to be here with you today and between terrorist organisations from Preparations are under way to establish finance terrorism should be punished; their tasks and goals. In addition, some humanitarian heritage. Similarly to all have an opportunity to share ideas and the Arab and Islamic states, which an administrative machine for managing equal development of all nations, and media, such as radio, satellite television other nations of the world, our people thoughts on a topic that is important not share the idea of the Islamic State of terrorist activities. an unbiased attitude to all beliefs and and the internet, began to cover terror- have the right to life and the right to only for our countries but for the whole Takfirism in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) and Fourthly, various methods are religions should be ensured so that ist attacks, thus offering new ample determine their own destiny without world. Terrorism is trans-boundary, and swear allegiance and obedience to the exploited to expand the geography of people could live in peace and harmony. opportunities for terrorists who seek being exposed to violence, oppression Egypt like other states suffers from it. so-called commander of the faithful, Abu terrorist activities. The fight against terrorism, its to promote their ideas and goals and and exploitation, these being methods Allow me to express, on behalf of the Bakr al-Baghdadi, as happened in Libya, Terrorists conduct guerrilla wars both prevention and the elimination of its justifying their actions. Therefore, it is employed by certain forces and regimes entire Egyptian nation and my chiefs, my on the Sinai peninsula, and in Nigeria. for opposing the security forces and for consequences should be based on necessary to find a form of control over that support terrorism and disregard condolences in connection with the ter- They claim that those in power in the intimidating civilians. scientific criteria, since the use of these networks, identify and punish the any laws, humanitarian or moral norms. rorist attack in Saint Petersburg. I know Arab and Islamic states are unfaithful, They use suicide bombers, recruiting poor conventional security methods alone is management of satellite channels and In conclusion, we call to join interna- that you share our pain in connection and they believe that they do not follow low-educated people and instilling in insufficient to achieve the ultimate goal, radio stations that directly or indirectly tional efforts for countering terrorism, with the recent explosions in Egypt. the God’s law (Sharia) and declare war them the idea of jihad against the godless. i.e. its complete eradication. Special propagate terrorism. taking real actions to eradicate it, using There is no doubt that the phenomenon against them and those who help them Terrorists post information about their attention should also be paid to the Suffering from the actions of terrorists the whole range of political, economic, of terrorism and religious extremism is applying the principles of Islamic Sharia. crimes on the internet, making it access- activities of intelligence agencies as for already six years, Syria actively information, intelligence and other one of the key features of the new world Their radical views contradict the values ible to a wide range of people. They seek regards collection of information on attempts to restore security and specific methods of struggle to prevent order. The harsh truth is that terrorism and ideas of the Islamic religion and are to spread horror and also to present their the capabilities and goals of terrorist stability in the country and secure the propaganda and dissemination of ideas is now becoming more dangerous than inconsistent with the rights recognised position from the right perspective. organisations, as well as on the sources future of its citizens. In cooperation of extremism and intolerance. We war. It is not tied to certain countries, by the Al-Azhar University. Terrorist groups use failed states, of their financing. It is also important with multiple parties, it is making should support any opportunities for nationalities, or religions, and does not Secondly, there are changes in the where they find safe haven and create to conclude security agreements every effort to put an end to inter- reconciliation and strengthen security distinguish between developed countries approach to recruitment. training camps. A long-term strategy between neighbouring states, which national terrorism and liquidate its and stability, and facilitate development, and developing countries. This aggra- Terrorists focus on recruiting educated is needed to protect society from the would ensure harmonious cooperation sources. As before, it demands that which we all strive for in our region and vates the problem for all countries of the young people who face social problems threats associated with terrorism between them in the field of combating the international community fulfil its throughout the world. world without exception and threatens and have a weak sense of patriotism. and extremism. We should focus on security and global peace, especially They make extensive use of social the implementation of the UN Global when it comes to the recruitment, media, spreading erroneous ideas Counter-Terrorism Strategy with a view training and interconnection between about Islam and associating it with the to eliminate the socio-economic and terrorist elements, which promotes the need for jihad to protect the religion, political causes and motives that lead spread of extremist philosophy. and they promise in exchange various to terrorism. To this end, it is neces- Despite the successes of the interna- moral and material benefits. sary to support human and economic tional counter-terrorism campaign, there The recruiters focused on the areas development efforts, which improve the is evidence of the geographical spread affected by conflicts, where people suf- living conditions of people, as well as to of its elements and the emergence of fer from persecution by the government eliminate the environment conducive to new generations of terrorist groups and (northern and eastern Syria, central and the spread of the epidemic of terrorism organisations, which act in a decentral- western Iraq). They try to recruit a large and extremism. ised manner and create new bases in the number of individuals, offering money. It is necessary to expand the coopera- regions hit by an internal crisis. A wide network of foreign militants is tion network at the national, regional Assessing the phenomenon of terrorism being created, who are attracted by the and international levels, create and use and extremism in the Middle East, national concepts of the caliphate and the databases to track the leaders of ter- which intensified significantly since the history of Islamic conquests, which are rorist groups, and promote interaction beginning of the so-called Arab Spring, far from the principles of Islamic Sharia. between security services and people. several aspects can be highlighted. Third, the resources and organisational At the national level, we should rely First, it is the development of ideolog- capacity of terrorists are improving. on the support of the general public in ical thoughts. Terrorists cooperate with organised the fight against terrorism. Information Terrorists are trying to spread extremist criminal groups, trade in ancient his- materials should be developed to draw interpretations of the concept of the torical artefacts and receive financial public attention to the goals of terrorism Islamic caliphate. In the long term, they benefits from the territories under and extremism and promoting an open seek to extend it to the states of the their control. These resources are sub- dialogue with more moderate elements. region and create cooperation networks sequently used for financing terrorism. Along with the strengthening of security

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measures, preventive actions against should strive to elaborate a clear defi- that the outcome will be deplorable, LIEUTENANT-GENERAL MAHMOUD FREIHAT the leaders of terrorist and extremist nition of the phenomenon of terrorism. unless we unite and coordinate our Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan groups, including the suppression of It is necessary to restrain the activities actions using both hard and soft power. their financing channels, are required. of states helping terrorists, avoid con- After all, we should not allow terrorists Particular attention should be paid to flict escalation and settle conflicts in to succeed and change our way of life and the protection of borders. a civilised manner in order to maintain our lifestyle, intimidating the population At the international political level, we relations between nations. We should and preventing individuals from traveling First let me express my sincere respect results achieved will be inadequate and understanding, religious tolerance and should intensify diplomatic efforts to also abandon the policy of interference and networking with each other. There and gratitude to the Ministry of Defence limited, unless such efforts are supported culture, respect for human rights and reach bilateral and multilateral agree- in the internal affairs of any country. should be no impression that terrorism of the Russian Federation for its generous by simultaneous work to eliminate the their recognition through the relevant ments based on the existing treaties We should understand that we are is stronger than the state. invitation to join this conference taking conditions and causes that lead to the institutions. In this regard, His Majesty and UN Security Council resolutions. We facing a destructive phenomenon and place under emergency conditions seen emergence of the factors that encourage King Abdullah II, the Supreme Commander on the international and regional scene, terror and with efforts to overcome them of the Armed Forces, through the Amman requiring from us joint concerted actions and reduce their influence in different Message initiated a campaign to explain to confront terrorism and extremism. countries and communities. and spread the image of merciful Islam in Today, we all face an unprecedented Jordan is among the first countries to different parts of the world. His goal is to spread of extremism and terrorism, a join the fight against terrorism, realising demonstrate the Islamic values and the phenomenon affecting all nations with its danger for the region and the whole spirit of mercy that makes an individual no exception, meaning that no one can world. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan better. That message also shows that feel completely safe. The growth and that has become one of the targets of Islam is a religion based on balance and spread of this disgusting phenomenon terrorist groups has repeatedly proven centralism, and it has at its core the spirit have been facilitated by a set of factors, that it can successfully resist their of mercy and tranquility and affirms the the most important of which are politi- attempts to undermine the commitment principle of rapprochement of religions. cal extremism, the lack of social justice, and will of the Jordanian people in the In addition, the Jordanian strategy difficult economic conditions, and the war against them. attaches great importance to the lack of understanding of the prospects Jordan takes various counter-terrorism strengthening of the family, developing for resolving the seminal problems measures at various levels, paying due young people and their participation in faced by a number of nations. The lack attention to fostering cooperation decision-making. It focuses on address- of attention to the problems young between all countries and nations with ing the problems of poverty and unem- people face, stemming from poverty a view to cut off the sources of financing ployment, given their obvious impact and unemployment, also provides fertile and support of terrorist groups and on young people, especially on their grounds for the emergence and polar- strengthen international mechanisms spiritual inclinations. After all, young isation of extremist ideas that evolve producing a positive effect in this people are the layer of society which into terrorist projects that cannot be area. Jordan’s unambiguous position is most susceptible to the influence of avoided by any society. internationally on countering terrorism terrorist groups in the face of harsh eco- Our previous experience shows that the is supported by the vast amount of nomic conditions faced by our countries. fight against terrorism and extremism work done to promote cooperation in In conclusion, I would like to reassure cannot be limited only to military and countering terrorist crimes. Jordan has all of you that Jordan will remain law enforcement activities, but should repeatedly reaffirmed its resolute and committed to all of its promises involve complex work to address this clear intransigence with terrorism in all and obligations to the international phenomenon, based on an understanding its manifestations and forms. In this regard, community regarding efforts for com- of the true causes fuelling the extremist Jordan has signed multiple counter- bating terrorism and extremism at all philosophy. For example, ISIS is nothing terrorism treaties and is committed to levels. It is understood that the fight but a product of socio-political condi- all international decisions related to it against terrorism is not the task of a tions associated with pressing problems, and has joined a package of relevant single country or region, but a shared such as a feeling of estrangement, international treaties and agreements. responsibility. We should double our abandonment, weak social ties, and a The Jordanian strategy for combating efforts to counter this danger, and any search of national identity. terrorism and extremism is focused efforts in this field will not be sufficient Focusing on military, force, or even on identifying the true causes of the without joint efforts of all countries. ideological measures in the struggle emergence of terrorism. In accordance I would like to restate my great gratitude to destroy or weaken extremist groups, with the strategy, countering terrorism and high appreciation to the Ministry of or on a cultural approach that involves and extremism requires joint efforts Defence of the Russian Federation for finding new pedagogical methods or of all stakeholders. It is necessary to their honourable invitation and excellent moderate religious rhetoric may be use- promote an open and merciful religious organisation of this event. ful in combating extremism. However, the culture that asserts the values of mutual

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CHRISTINE BEERLI have been killed in the course of their engage in a wide range of activities to passed a resolution in 2016 specifically Vice-President of the International Committee of the Red Cross work since the conflict started. Beyond advise and support parties to armed on the protection of the medical mis- the appalling loss of life, the chilling conflict, both state and non-state, sion in armed conflicts, reaffirming the effects of such incidents cannot be over- on IHL and its implementation. This crucial importance of IHL compliance to estimated — not least the impact on includes providing training and train- this end. The Russian Federation itself the countless vulnerable people whom ing materials on IHL for armed forces, has repeatedly expressed its concern It is an honour and a privilege to be in Mosul and many other areas as well. While the statistics are numbing, the these brave volunteers were helping. armed groups, and civilian audiences over the plight of civilians, protection addressing this audience today, and on The Occupied Palestinian Territories too impact of each attack goes far beyond Addressing these massive and complex such as decision-makers and legal of medical facilities and other humani- behalf of the ICRC, I would like to thank are continuing to suffer the effects of any immediate loss. To give just one challenges of course requires action on practitioners. In the framework of our tarian issues in the Syrian conflict. On a the Ministry of Defence for the invitation. long-term occupation. example: following the destruction of multiple levels by a range of stakeholders “Health Care in Danger” initiative we practical level, cooperation between the The topic before this panel is modern And as we see from the continuing one of its hospitals in Yemen’s Saada focusing not just on the consequences have carried out numerous activities ICRC and the Russian Federation, among objectives of counter-terrorism and arrival on Europe’s shores and borders province in October 2015, Médecins of the armed conflicts in the region, but at national and global levels to raise others, helped facilitate the evacuation counter-radicalism in the Middle East. of large numbers of migrants, including Sans Frontières reported that at least ultimately on the root causes. awareness and proposed concrete of some 35,000 people from Aleppo last In this context, my remarks will focus refugees and asylum seekers, the 200,000 people were left without For the ICRC, whose core mission is measures to bring an end to violence December, to give just one example. purely on the humanitarian dimension consequences of the armed conflicts access to vital medical care. Over 160 to protect and assist people affected against health care. Faced with the enormity of the human- of what has effectively become a highly in countries like Syria — and the lack such attacks have been reported to the by armed conflict and other situations Of course, we can only be one small itarian challenges in the Middle East complex, multidimensional battlefield of viable political solutions so far to ICRC since the current conflict in Yemen of violence, ensuring a sustained and part of the solution. Ultimately, primary today, much more needs to be done, in the region; one with tangled and end them — are not contained within began in 2015. Less than half of the principled humanitarian response in responsibility for compliance with IHL by all of us. The challenges are much competing ideological and political the region itself. country’s health care facilities are now the conflict-affected countries and their lies with the parties to armed conflict too vast for one organisation or even interests at local, regional and global Even though the current crisis in Europe functioning. The Russian military also regional neighbours is vital. themselves. There is a need, however, one sector to tackle. For the ICRC, this levels. While it would be naive to believe is only part of a much bigger phenome- knows the far-reaching consequences Our long-standing presence in practi- for a broader, concerted international means expanding our interaction with that humanitarian action can happen non of migration, and even though the of such incidents, having suffered an cally all of these countries in the region effort to improve compliance with the law. strategically important states — the in a political vacuum, it is crucial for neighbours of the countries of origin are attack on one its field hospitals in is testimony to our commitment. To This means that all states must at all Russian Federation being one of them — a humanitarian organisation like the under far greater strain, it has neverthe- Aleppo, Syria in December of last year. this end, securing acceptance for our times ensure respect for IHL and do and also continuing to seek ways to ICRC that its approach and objectives less forced the international community Beyond the impact of specific incidents, work from all communities and political their best to ensure that other actors, better engage non-state armed groups. remain clearly distinct from any political, to sit up and take notice of the massive the general insecurity and disruption and military groups is essential. This particularly their partners and allies, do It means strengthening partnerships military or economic agenda. impact of the humanitarian crises that created by armed conflict or violence, requires a clear demonstration of impar- the same. There are countless ways in within the Red Cross and Red Crescent Of course, when we talk about the have been unfolding in the Middle East while hard to measure, undoubtedly tiality — the provision of humanitarian which they can do this. Supporting and Movement; and seeking greater levels of Middle East, the armed conflict in and elsewhere for many years now. has a massive impact on the provision assistance based exclusively on actual providing IHL training to their partners, pragmatic cooperation with specialised Syria and its catastrophic humanitarian Much of the suffering we are witness- of, and access to, impartial health care. needs — as well as neutrality and states and non-state actors alike, UN agencies, neutral and impartial impact on people in and beyond the ing in the context of armed conflicts Even where health care facilities are independence. including with regard to respect for humanitarian NGOs on the ground, and country continues to be pivotal. With in the Middle East today is a direct functioning, albeit barely, reaching them This entails engaging with all stakehold- and protection of the medical mission, the private sector. over 5 million refugees being hosted consequence of flagrant violations may be fraught with dangers — and fear. ers, including those deemed “terrorist” is just one example. Ultimately it is up to states and non- mainly by neighbouring countries, and of international humanitarian law Obstacles and threats directed by states by some parties. This is vital not only It means avoiding labelling armed state armed groups — both of whom more than 6.3 million internally dis- (IHL); committed by various parties, and by non-state armed groups at health to gain acceptance but also access to groups as “terrorist” simply to deny the are bound by the provisions of IHL — to placed, Syria has become the world’s mostly with impunity, and in some workers and humanitarian organisations as many vulnerable people as possible, applicability of IHL in an armed conflict. show the requisite political will to turn single-largest driver of displacement, cases glorified on social media and that are seen to help “the other side” on all sides of frontlines. And it also means national legislators legal and policy provisions into a mean- and has alone made the Middle East the used for propaganda purposes. The impede access to entire communities The single most effective way to reduce and courts fulfilling their responsibilities ingful reality, and to show good faith in biggest producer and host of displaced overriding problem is widespread lack in need of vital medical care. the terrible suffering we are witnessing of ensuring that domestic legislation protecting the victims of armed conflicts people. Millions more live in besieged of respect for, and protection of, civilian Furthermore, the crippling loss of is, without doubt, improving respect for recognises the criminal responsibility of as well as those who help them. Not only or hard-to-reach areas, in desperate populations. health professionals has compounded international humanitarian law and the those who violate IHL, and of actually will this help to alleviate the suffering we humanitarian need. Violence against health care — and the humanitarian crises in countries basic principle of humanity. Working to enforcing such legislation. Perpetrators are witnessing in the here and now, it will Meanwhile the situation in Yemen has more broadly against humanitarian like Syria, Iraq, Yemen and many others. ensure respect for IHL is at the heart of of violations must be held accountable. help pave the way for political dialogue become increasingly alarming. Two workers — is one of the most worrying More than half of Syria’s doctors are our mandate and mission on legal, policy There are some grounds for hope. On a and eventually, a sustainable peace. years of intensifying conflict have trends we are currently witnessing, reported to have fled or been killed. and operational levels. For example, we political level, the UN Security Council caused spiralling humanitarian needs not least because of the extremely Similarly, when humanitarian workers on a massive scale, including soaring far-reaching consequences. are attacked — a clear violation of levels of acute malnutrition and the risk Direct attacks on health care facilities humanitarian law — the impact is felt of famine, especially among children. and ambulances, and the killing or far beyond the pain or tragic loss of Similarly, in Iraq, an upsurge in the wounding of staff and patients, are one those directly affected. In Syria alone, hostilities since 2016 has caused part of the problem. Many hundreds of 63 volunteers from the ICRC’s closest unprecedented levels of humanitarian attacks have been reported in Syria, partner in the country, the Syrian Arab needs throughout the country, with Yemen and Iraq in recent years, on all Red Crescent, and another eight from huge numbers of people fleeing fighting sides of frontlines. the Palestine Red Crescent Society,

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MAJOR-GENERAL IGOR DYLEVSKY Moderator Major-General Irina Yarovaya Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff Andrey Ilnitsky Igor Dylevsky Deputy Chairman of the State Duma of the Russian Armed Forces Adviser to the Minister of Defence Deputy Chief of the Main Operational of the Federal Assembly of the Russian of the Russian Federation Directorate of the General Staff Federation of the Russian Armed Forces

Modern information technologies are demonstrated that these technologies of information weapons nonproliferation. increasingly being used for aggressive are already quite mature. Additionally, adopting international ends. Combined with extremist, national- The question is, where will they be used legal norms could reduce the risk of ist, and racist actions, they can destabi- next, when, and who will be their next information weapons being used against lise the situation and remove from power target? Let me also put to you another critical national facilities in the nuclear any government, regardless of whether question: What country can feel confident industry, the energy sector, life-support- the country in question is backward or these days that such technologies will ing infrastructure, etc. very advanced. never be used against it? What country Our Western colleagues, however, have These days, no country in the world can feel completely protected? chosen a different path. can feel safe and protected from The answer is obvious: no country can At its 2014 summit in Wales, NATO information threats originating from feel safe. This situation is compounded by adopted amendments to Article 5 of the across the border. the fact that in order to gain supremacy Washington Treaty; these amendments According to information from the over the adversaries in the information allow a collective use of military force Captain Wen Baihua Yakov Kedmi Alexander Rahr Russian FSB, more than 70 million sphere, interfere in the work of their in response to so-called cyber-attacks. Professor at the Centre of Information Expert (Israel) Editor-in-Chief of Russlandkontrovers (Germany) criminal attacks were committed last automated systems and weapons, attack Also, at the 2016 summit in Warsaw, Security of the Chinese People’s year against information resources in their command staff and military service- NATO recognised cyberspace as one of Liberation Army National Defence University the Russian Federation; most of those men, and target their population and the “domains of operations” for collec- attacks originated abroad. infrastructure, many states are currently tive defence operations (along with the Information technologies can even developing special information technol- air, sea, land, and space). trigger international military conflicts. ogies, tools and methods collectively In other words, the information space Additionally, creating a conflict situation known as information weapons. has become a new theatre of warfare. using such instruments is much cheaper The term has various interpretations. Indeed, the armed forces of almost than the standard preparations for Let me cite one definition used in an every single state now have outfits traditional warfare. It does not require annex to the Agreement on Cooperation that specialise in operations in the putting together large military forces, in Ensuring International Information information sphere. It has often been amassing aircraft, artillery, or air defence Security between the Member States reported that more than 120 states systems in specific areas, preparing the of the SCO. The document defines are currently developing information logistics, etc. information weapons as information weapons. The latest NATO documents An information impact is bloodless. It technologies, tools and methods used have now officially designated a new does not destroy the environment, and for the purpose of information warfare. battlefield. it can be delivered via entirely peaceful It has often been said that the damage In this context, specialists of the Vladimir Soloviev Harlan K. Ullman Majed Al Turki Natalya Kasperskaya means, such as the mass media, the inflicted by such weapons can lead to Russian Ministry of Defence are seeking Journalist, member of the Public Senior Adviser at the Atlantic Director of the Saudi Centre for Media President of InfoWatch Group, internet, telecommunications, and IT man-made disasters and major accidents answers to several crucially important Council of the Russian Ministry Council (USA) and Arab-Russian Studies co-founder of Kaspersky Lab systems, etc. at critical industrial, economic, energy, questions, such as: of Defence Injections of misinformation via media and transport facilities. It can even trig- outlets, publication and distribution ger a financial meltdown and a systemic -- Do information attacks constitute a of extremist statements, racist or economic crisis. violation of national sovereignty, and xenophobic flash mobs, cross-border Further progress in information tech- should they be regarded as acts of computer attacks against critical nology will lead to the development of aggression? infrastructure facilities, and other such a greater range of information weapons; methods can bring the situation in any the list of the potential targets of such -- Can the right of nations to individual country to a boiling point and cause weapons will also become longer. and collective self-defence, as stipu- major social upheavals. We are well aware of the fact that it’s lated in Article 51 of the UN Charter, Such actions can also bring two or more not possible to ban the development be invoked in response to such infor- countries to a state of serious conflict of information weapons, or to verify mation attacks? and even war. its possession by states, let alone Examples of “colour” revolutions terrorists. Nevertheless, it is possible to -- To what extent is humanitarian law and conflicts in recent years have initiate efforts to develop a mechanism applicable to information attacks?

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Let me offer a brief analysis of the law, in accordance with the Definition of can be amended with the following Second, even if we can identify the from the angle of cyber-attacks — or, -- They conduct their operations in current situation. Violations of national Aggression resolution, we should take clause: “the use of information weapons source, the next problem is how to using our own preferred terminology, accordance with the laws and cus- sovereignty, territorial integrity or polit- into account two main factors. by the armed forces of a state against establish the relationship between computer attacks. toms of war. ical independence of another state are First, a state can be designated the critical facilities of another state, leading some network entity and the govern- They do not, for example, regard the usually perpetrated in specific physical aggressor if it was the first to launch to numerous human casualties or major ment party behind the attack. What information/psychological impact Clearly, some of these criteria are environments (land, sea, or air). an information attack against another devastation”. if the members of that entity are that leads to “colour” revolutions as not met by cross-border information But we now have a new environment, state in order to achieve its military- It is also necessary to formulate a driven purely by patriotic or other part of this problem, even though the attacks, and cannot be directly used for the information sphere, in which every political ends. new clause on the use of information/ motives? Who should bear international consequences for the national economy investigating such attacks. Therefore, state also has its own national interests Second, to formulate a final verdict as to psychological impact techniques that responsibility for the consequences of and the social sphere resulting from defining “combatant” with regard to that need to be protected. And unlike the whether such an information attack qual- have become very widespread. For a malicious information attack? Who the fall of a government are much more entities operating in the information physical environments, the information ifies as an act of aggression, we should example, such techniques are used to should be the specific target of any devastating than the consequences of an space will also require the development sphere does not have clearly delineated assess the nature of the consequences foment “colour” revolutions. One pos- steps taken in retaliation for an attack? attack against individual critical facilities. and implementation of new interna- national borders. of the attack. If the consequences can be sible wording of such a clause would be Wars are started and waged by states If the norms of international law are tional legal methodology. Otherwise, In accordance with the Russian judged catastrophic, then the attack can “inciting the overthrow of legitimately using their armed forces. As for other ignored, and if decisions are taken bringing the offending states and their Information Security Doctrine, “infor- qualify as an act of aggression. elected governments; propaganda of war legal entities or persons, they can be outside the UN framework, the NATO officials to responsibility becomes an mation sphere” includes the combination There have been earlier reports in the and of the use of force; and spreading regarded as sources of aggression only states can designate any country they insurmountable task. of information, informatisation objects, media about computer attacks against deliberate information or misinformation if they are acting on orders from a gov- do not like as an aggressor. It will be To conclude, let me say that the quali- information systems and websites on Iranian nuclear facilities. Specialists to destabilise the domestic or inter- ernment. The actual persons or entities sufficient for these states merely to fying characteristics of the events and the internet, communications networks, believe that these attacks delayed national situation, or to provoke and that commit cross-border attacks, driven declare themselves victims of a so-called developments in the information space information technologies, entities the progress of the Iranian nuclear escalate armed conflicts”. by motives of terrorism, extremism, or cyber-attack, thereby giving themselves that pose military-political threats involved in generating and processing programme by two years. Can these Let me note that under Article 4 of the personal gain, cannot be regarded as the pretext for using military force. must be formulated on the basis of information, developing and using the attacks be regarded as serious? If so, Definition of Aggression resolution, the sources of an armed attack. In such a The third question, the question of states’ analysis of the existing international abovementioned technologies, and then, in theory, Iran can be regarded as UN Security Council has the power to case, information attacks should be responsibility for actions in the informa- laws, national laws and regulations, ensuring information security, as well a victim of an act of aggression, while decide which acts constitute acts of qualified as terrorist, extremist, or other tion space undertaken by their agents, and the available information about as a set of mechanisms regulating public those who commissioned and perpe- aggression. That mechanism can be used criminal offences. pertains to a much broader problem of the recent and ongoing investigations relations in this sphere. trated the attacks can be regarded as to determine the perpetrator of an act So long as this problem remains unre- participants in an armed conflict waged of information security incidents in A destructive impact on entities that aggressors — if they acted on orders of aggression. solved, we will not have full clarity as using information weapons. countries around the world. constitute the information sphere can from a national government. The answer to the second question, on to whether there is a basis for launching Under the current provisions of inter- Let me also note that to date, there be made using conventional weapons In practice, however, making such invoking states’ right to individual or retaliatory military action against states national law, wars must be waged only has not been a single case, in any as well as information technologies. In judgments would hardly be possible at collective self-defence, as stipulated in that commit armed attacks using between the armed forces of the state country, of the qualification of such our opinion, that can be qualified as a this point in time because adjudging the Article 51 of the UN Charter, in response information weapons. The only legally parties involved (i.e. between the com- events. breach of sovereignty, territorial integrity gravity of the consequences of any mili- to an armed attack perpetrated using correct way of resolving this problem is batants). The armed forces (regular and We advocate broad international coop- or political independence of another tary use of information technology would information weapons, is closely related by adopting relevant legislation in the irregular) include the police and security eration in resolving the global problem state — i.e. an act of aggression. require a clear set of specific criteria. to the previous question regarding acts UN framework. Since there is no such forces, volunteer units, militias, guerril- of countering the threat of information Let me explain. At present, the criteria regarding the of aggression. legislation at this time, parties can take las, and members of the public who take wars and of the proliferation of infor- Take, for example, a hydroelectric or use of conventional military force are To begin with, we need an international their case to the UN Security Council up arms at their own initiative in order to mation weapons. In our view, the main nuclear power plant. Clearly, such a contained in the list of possible acts legal definition of the term “armed attack and ask it to recognise an information repel the invading aggressor, before they goal of such cooperation should be the facility is part of critical national infra- of aggression cited in Article 3 of UN perpetrated using information weapons”. attack as a threat to peace, or as an act have the time to organise themselves establishment of an international legal structure. If any party attacks the plant General Assembly Resolution 3314 Without resolving this issue within of aggression, and take the appropriate into regular units. All these categories of regime for the provision of information using any of the existing modern weap- (Definition of Aggression) dated 14 a UN framework, direct use of the measures stipulated in the UN Charter. combatants are regarded as legitimate security. That regime should regulate, ons, that would lead to an enormous December 1974. existing regulations on individual and If some kinds of information impacts are participants in warfare, so long as they among other things, military activities amount of destruction and numerous I am not going to list those criteria collective self-defence is impossible. qualified by the UN Security Council as meet the following conditions defined of states in the global information space casualties. That would constitute an now — but I will say that to a greater Nevertheless, our NATO colleagues armed attacks, the victim will have a by international conventions: on the basis of the principles and norms act of aggression. or lesser degree, all of them can be have already made that norm part of legitimate right to self-defence. of international law. We advocate the But what if the same consequences used with regard to any aggressive use their body of laws and regulations, Nevertheless, the next question that will -- They are commanded by a person creation of mechanisms of bilateral and are caused by a computer attack that of information technology. bypassing the UN framework. arise in such a case would be whether responsible for his subordinates; multilateral cooperation on military disrupts the power plant’s automated But over the four decades since 1974, In practice, qualifying cross-border to launch a symmetric or asymmetric aspects of international information control system? Should that also be information technology has made information impacts as “armed attacks” retaliatory action, using information -- They have a fixed distinctive sign security. regarded as an act of aggression? We such enormous progress that the list appears problematic. weapons or conventional weapons. recognisable at a distance; believe that it clearly should; it is a contained in Resolution 3314 is no First, the methods and instruments for It should be noted that the Western manifest act of aggression. longer sufficient. quickly and accurately pinpointing the countries approach this issue only -- They openly carry arms; When assessing any specific act of To return to the example of a devastating location and national identity of the military use of information technology computer attack against a power plant, source of an information attack have from the point of view of international the list of the possible acts of aggression yet to be developed.

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IRINA YAROVAYA agreements that will clearly differentiate Therefore, I think that at international Syria or Libya, we equally value human Deputy Chairman of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation the rights, obligations and responsibili- military forums we will increasingly find lives and we will equally protect the ties of each subject of international law ourselves discussing the value of culture, right of every citizen of any state to their in information space. education, and upbringing. For Russia, it own understanding of their culture, their And lastly, in today’s world, the is an everlasting choice of values. And it traditions, and their future. human mind is valuable and precious. is absolutely clear to us that in Russia, First of all, we need to define the current information impact. In fact, the United present in the information space. The information space. It is global, it is States has been acting within this very encryption system that prevents intelli- comprehensive, but it has no regula- paradigm. Therefore, we can say with gence agencies of other countries from tory framework, no established rules. full confidence that nowadays false fighting terrorism, a global international It completely violates sovereignty and, in information is a prelude to genocide, threat, falls into the same category, fact, today information weapons become aggression, economic devastation, because today there is again only one weapons of mass destruction. “colour” revolutions, and coups. state that has such an exclusive right, When we talk about the impact on the Today, the greatest shortage that the and this is the United States. That said it mind of an individual as the bearer of world is facing is the shortage of truth. is very important what modern doctrinal civil rights and freedoms, the bearer of And it is fundamentally important that documents look like, for instance in national sovereignty that ensures the today, at the beginning of the conference, Russia and the United States. sovereign security of each country, we all officials speaking on behalf of Russia In its Military Doctrine, Russia says that should also note that the current informa- said that we propose dialogue to the information space should be a space of tion space, not protected by international world, we propose the truth for objective security and equal sovereign rights, while agreements or treaties, is not just vul- assessment of the situation in terms the United States claims that it seeks nerable, but has been appropriated and of the logic of further administrative, to ensure its information superiority. At monopolised by one state only. military, and political decisions. the same time, the United States also Facts and evidence are always important. If we analyse the mechanism of invented the so-called theory of five In 1953, the United States put forward destruction that was launched during rings, through which it determines the the concept of psychological warfare. the Arab Spring, in Ukraine, during levels of information attacks in order to Back then, during the Cold War, that the revolution in Georgia, and in all achieve its strategic and current goals on was how the United States tackled its countries that have suffered from the territories of other sovereign states. geopolitical tasks with regards to the this, we will see that everywhere the Therefore, today, when we talk about countries of the socialist camp. After the same approach is used. It starts with information security, the issue of pro- Soviet Union collapsed, the United States an information attack, an information tecting humanitarian sovereignty needs was the first in the world to put forward intervention that precedes further to be tackled. Sovereignty of citizens the concept of information warfare in economic and political colonisation. who hold exclusive rights to shape their 1992. Initially, those were instructional Today, colleagues from other countries respective countries’ domestic policies. materials of the Secretary of Defence. In said they feel now that military and As regards the theatre of operations, 1996 and 1998, such concept makes is political presence is being commer- already today in its documents the United way to US doctrinal documents. In this cialised and that ultimately it is all States stipulates that any information regard, it is fundamentally important to about the direct economic interests attack is considered an intrusion and that understand what the original meaning of seizure of resources, devastation it intends to repel such attacks using any promoted by masterminds of information and enslavement. means available, including weapons of warfare (and these are the United States) However we need to understand how this mass destruction. It is fundamentally was in terms of how they planned to mechanism is launched. It can be said important, because Russia has proposed use information weapons in the long run. that today non-governmental organi- already twice to adopt at the United Let me read the quote to convey sations often act as a mobile squadron Nations international documents that the exact wording from the official that produces the required impact and would allow for information cooperation document. Information warfare is a is exploited by the main actor that has to be used in the fight against terrorism complex impact on the system of monopolised the information space. and that would establish international state and military administration of Today there is only one corporation, arrangements to stand up for, inter alia, the opposing side, and its military and created by United States, which holds preservation of sovereignty. political leadership, which — and this the exclusive right to assign domains. What conclusions can be drawn from is fundamentally important — would All other states have only an advisory all of this? First, the world needs already during peacetime lead to the vote. That is, today only one sovereign information disarmament. The world adoption of decisions that are favour- in the world has the exclusive right needs to develop immunity to fake infor- able to the country that initiated the to permit or prohibit someone to be mation. The world needs international

/90 /91 2017 /Security of information space and freedom of access: a contradictory interrelation

CAPTAIN WEN BAIHUA YAKOV KEDMI Professor at the Centre of Information Security of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army National Defence University Expert (Israel)

When big powers face the paradox of speeches online. This March, Germany the other nations to fight against Every military action, war, and military operations, of which defence is a natural they are state-owned. Therefore, the information space security and infor- pressed Twitter and Facebook to delete international cyber-crime. operation always pursues political part, an attempt to wage an information media should be controlled; otherwise, mation access freedom, their options remarks advocating terrorism as soon According to the International Strategy goals. These political goals are to war defensively almost always leads as those who have been engaged are limited. as possible. of Cooperation on Cyberspace, enhanced influence the political situation and to defeat. Unlike military operations, a in intelligence know perfectly well, Let me give as the first example the Last December, Russia published defence capability in cyberspace is an change it as necessary. successful information war must always they can cause serious damage to United States. Through massive its national Doctrine of Information important part of China’s endeavours Information wars have the same goal, be offensive and proactive. Defence, as the military operation and the troops, metadata collection activities to Security. According to the doctrine, to modernise its national defence and to influence the political situation. they say in Russia, is similar to death. should an information leak occur. A implement its national security policy, “the information security of the Russian armed forces, which complies with the Information warfare is an indispen- During hostilities, the time and pace lot of information always leaks from which is rooted in its core position in Federation is the state of protection of strategic guideline of active defence. sable and natural part of political of military operations are of great the battlefield, and we ourselves have international communication networks, the individual, society and the State International cooperation is the final confrontation. importance. In an information war, experienced that. the United States has globally put against internal and external informa- solution in the long run. Geopolitical Unlike military operations that take their importance is even greater. Its Those responsible for the military tremendous pressure on ordinary tion threats, allowing to ensure the strategic structure is still the dominant place from time to time, an information success largely depends on transmit- operation must also be responsible for citizens’ confidence when they access constitutional human and civil rights concern for all nations in dealing with war unfolds before, during, and after ting information from the battlefield information security in the battlefield. the internet. and freedoms”. the inevitable paradox in virtual space. a military operation. The goals of as quickly as possible. However, there Such responsibility should not be dele- From August 2016, according to Shadow China upholds the cyber-sovereignty From the traditional military or security information warfare are to influence is a problem regarding information gated to anyone. It is the responsibility Brokers documents, the United States principle for national interests and perspective, stability of cyberspace is military results, sometimes strength- reliability. Reliability plays the same of the operation commander. And, as has been stealthily stockpiling zero- international stability. The cyber- still the top priority of international ening them and sometimes weakening and sometimes even a greater role. long as it is his responsibility, he must day vulnerabilities for its intelligence sovereignty principle has been China’s cyber-security in the near future. The or neutralising them. In our army, we have always tried to have all powers and authorities to community, and declared that it has basic solution to keep balance between cyber-pact under the UN system is far However sometimes information wars ensure that information is reliable, but enforce and ensure it. During military responsible policy under the leadership information security and access free- more important at present. get out of control, and their role, instead this has led to delays in information operations, we always have military of the National Security Council. These dom. This principle was promoted by But this is not enough. Another crucial of an auxiliary one, becomes decisive. transmission, making information less censorship in the army. All reports activities have been the top threat China and Russia for a long time, and factor is cyberspace cooperation. China A vivid example that I want to provide effective, if effective at all. So, great from the battlefield must be censored. to public information assurance. The in particular in the 2015 report of the and Russia have a long tradition of coop- is the year 1948, before the war for efforts have been made recently to If someone evades censorship, it will be US government even took the risk of UN Group of Governmental Experts. It eration on promoting norms governing independence. The Prime Minister of ensure that any military operation is treated as a violation of law. impairing the integrity of the Middle East was then reiterated by Chinese and US international cyberspace. This April, the Iraq speaks quite frankly and honestly: supported by services dealing with Countries considered democratic apply SWIFT banking system in the name of leaders during President Xi Jinping’s G7 also issued a declaration on responsi- “If we start a war against Israel, we information. This also happens at even more stringent measures. Please counter-terrorism, undermining the state visit to the United States in 2015. ble states’ behaviour in cyberspace, which will lose it. But we drove our people to the planning stage. Transmission of recall that during the war for the stability of international financial system. According to China’s 2016 National urges a closer cooperation among states. hysteria, and if we do not start it, they information from the battlefield is one Falkland Islands or Malvinas (the name As far as the European Union is Cyberspace Security Strategy and It’s not enough to cooperate on cyber- will overthrow us”. And the country, due of the tasks of those responsible for itself was an element of information concerned, since 2014 it has applied the 2017 International Strategy of issues only from the political perspective. to a wrongly devised information war, planning and execution of operations, warfare) no one was admitted to the domestic laws on international data Cooperation on Cyberspace, respect for Across the world, we should develop began the war, which it lost, knowing in order to ensure that information is battlefield by British troops. The same centres, and controls the dataflow and protection of cyber-sovereignty has new projects to strengthen bilateral, in advance that it would lose it. transmitted as soon as possible and is thing happened in Iraq. across its borders, causing ICT indus- been set out as one of four principles regional, and global cooperation in the We faced a similar situation in 1967. No as reliable as possible. In conclusion, I want to provide an tries like Google or Facebook to face alongside peace, shared governance, political, military, economic, security, one wanted the Six-Day War, but the On the other hand, the battlefield is example of what an information war the dilemma of choosing between their and shared benefits. It is in accordance and social fields to resolve the paradox information hysteria in the Middle East characterised by uncertainty. It is is. In 1973, representatives of Vietnam international markets and the cost with these principles that China is trying comprehensively. got out of control and our entire region natural, and either side always tries and the United States met in Paris. The of providing services. The European to resolve this paradox. We should bear in mind that, compared was engulfed by this war, the results of to make the situation for the enemy American general bitterly said to the Justice Commissioner noted the wide- Considering the difficulty of comprehen- with unilateral actions, cyber-cooperation which we still reap until today. unknown and uncertain. Vietnamese officer: “We won all battles”. spread use of encryption backdoors in sively implementing cyber-sovereignty is much cheaper, more sustainable, and Similarly to any other war, information The information space is usually formed The Vietnamese officer smiled and said: messaging apps across the EU, and at present, the core value of this more efficient in safeguarding national war possesses all the features of by the media, both public and, more “You lost the war”. It is the best example plans were made to strengthen law principle is to preserve strategic agility security interests and it can preserve military operations. Strategy, tactics, and more often, private media. In the of what an information war does, even enforcement from June, which would around the world and for the future. perpetual information access freedom offence, defence, planning, staff work, battlefield, all media have a common in case of absolute military superiority. impact public confidence in internet use. China is trying to learn from the best more vigorously at the same time. manoeuvres. However, unlike military quality of being irresponsible, even if Last November, the United Kingdom practices of the EU and the United declared that it was going to build a States in dealing with cross-border national firewall to filter out extreme dataflow, and to cooperate with all

/92 /93 2017 /Security of information space and freedom of access: a contradictory interrelation

ALEXANDER RAHR VLADIMIR SOLOVIEV Editor-in-Chief of Russlandkontrovers (Germany) Journalist, member of the Public Council of the Russian Ministry of Defence

Increasingly more attention is being paid that the national government was acting interesting to the general public. In fact, Speaking about information warfare, question: in whose interests? For all our concepts are corrupted. The to cyber-security. A few years ago, only responsibly and seriously and was ready the global population starts getting used we should understand that nothing has this purpose, the government should concept of democracy, the concept of intelligence agencies were concerned about to face a new challenge. to the fact that their personal data are fundamentally changed since the times determine what their own interests are. freedom, the concept of justice. They this issue. Today, this topic is on the agenda After the US presidential elections, the freely available online, and people even of Ecclesiastes and Sun Tzu. One more We cannot make people believe in what are understood differently by different of multiple international conferences, West accused Russian intelligence contribute voluntarily to such develop- battlefield has emerged, but it is still is contrary to their nature. But their individuals. As a result, we see the including the Munich Security Conference. agencies of hacker attacks on Hillary ments, sharing more and more personal a war, in which the parties primarily nature can be changed by changing peo- return of sovereign nations to their Experts agree on one thing: in the future, Clinton’s campaign, which allegedly information on the internet. pursue their own interests and benefits. ple’s ideas about themselves through inherent forms of government and not tanks or soldiers, but cyber-weapons secured Donald Trump’s victory. That is the spirit of our time, but it is very Anyway, we still deceive ourselves. We education, culture, and media. forms of presentation and perception will become the main force in the battlefield. According to Western intelligence agen- dangerous. If 20 years ago it had become avoid answering the key question: who Mrs Yarovaya’s use of the term “immunity” of information. Otherwise, “Islamic Using hacker attacks, the military of the cies, cyber-espionage has reached new known that the CIA or NSA monitored their benefits and why? is apposite. Our country itself is guilty of State” which is banned in Russia future will be able to paralyse the enemy’s milestones. Both Russia and the West NATO partners, a huge wave of protests We accepted the existence of a country having lost its immunity. So it’s ridiculous would not have been so successful. It economic centres, de-energise nuclear are preparing to repel foreign hacker would have arisen in Germany and all that completely changed the notion to expect that the United States or any is a caliphate. Does anyone think that power plants and shoot down aircrafts. attacks with the help of cyber-armies. over the West. Today, however, there is of international law. While the terrible other country will suddenly change their Egypt has gone far from its traditional Information wars will become a challenge In the future, it will be cyber-war that will no such wave. The events of recent years sufferings of Syrian children can serve as nature and say: “Indeed, we will step forms of government? Does someone for any state. Everyone, both large and ensure victory or defeat of states in wars. are alarming. Due to ongoing digitalisation reason for a missile strike on the airfield, down from the pedestal to which we have still believe that most African countries small states, will have to rewrite their mil- The first real cyber-battle may take and the development of industry 4.0, why are the terrible sufferings of children climbed”. As a young nation, they can are democracies? itary strategies to adapt them to the new place in North Korea in the near future. completely new security measures will in Donbass not a reason for a strike on the afford the luxury of looking at the whole We should stop deceiving ourselves. We threat. Only recently, a special Bundeswehr According to recent media reports, the be needed in the near future. The world positions of the Ukrainian troops that are world and thinking that the world was should realise that external threats will unit responsible for internet security was United States managed to tap into the IT is rapidly turning into a homogeneous shelling them? born together with them. We understand never disappear. And we should proceed set up in Germany. It employs over 100 systems of the DPRK Ministry of Defence and unlimited information space that is Why is it possible to impose sanctions that their triumph, de facto since World on this basis to address the challenges people and will expand. and sabotage ballistic missile tests. becoming increasingly vulnerable. on Russia because someone thinks that War II, is virtually insignificant when com- we are facing inside the country, relying There is an ethical problem. Democratic The current hysteria around possible The danger of leaks of confidential Russian troops are deployed in Lugansk pared to more than three thousand years on a coherent, powerful ideological states have long faced a dilemma of how cyber-attacks relates to the fact that government documents increases. More and Donetsk, without imposing any of triumph seen by the Chinese civilisation. platform, recognised and enshrined by to ensure freedom of speech and open only a few experts today are really able and more threats come from the spread sanctions on the United States and However we retreated. We, as a country, the government. Just as is done in the access to information, while protecting to understand how the internet can be of so-called fake news. Often, such delib- Turkey, whose troops are definitely abandoned our sovereignty in the 1990s. United States. the state structure and social order. turned into a weapon. While previously erately false information, once uploaded present in Syria? We abandoned our ideology. Therefore It is not accidental that Irina Yarovaya Here, discussions are taking place from intelligence agencies and security experts to the internet, turns into truth. Why do they talk about the annexation it is ridiculous to demand that the army, mentioned 1953 and the emergence of completely different perspectives. were engaged in counting missile carriers At the moment, states can protect them- of the Crimea, but say nothing about any with media as an ideological army (with the doctrine of psychological warfare. Accelerating digitalisation in multiple and nuclear warheads, now they hunt for selves against such dangers in one way associated territories? It is because the all relevant specifics and nuances) being McCarthyism was at the peak of popularity spheres of human life, as well as in adversaries on the internet. only, by limiting the use of the internet and Yalta world has collapsed long ago. de facto a part of the army, advance, then. Violations of human rights akin to economy in general, has led to a situation In this regard, the Moscow Conference on banning Facebook and Twitter. Some Asian Each time, deceiving ourselves, we believe when the government does not provide those seen during McCarthy’s time are when criminals learnt to exploit tech- International Security could make an impor- states choose this way, but the price of that there is some opportunity to come to an ideological platform. The government hard to recall. When comrade Deng nology for criminal purposes: to commit tant contribution to the de-escalation in such measures is high: economic losses an agreement at international forums and is afraid of this word. Xiaoping faced the information threat cyber-attacks and engage in espionage this area and discuss how the West, Russia, and political isolation. believe in some international institutions. How can the army fight when the that could destroy Chinese sovereignty, he, and manipulations through the internet. and China could initiate cyber-disarma- This April, Facebook spread sensational The state of Iraq collapsed because of commander does not lead it, when the now perceived almost as an icon of change, Cyber-crime is no longer qualified as a ment, achieve transparency, and improve news directly connected with the issues fake news. Who was punished in any way? commander sets no task? without hesitation persuaded his peers minor offence. It threatens the existence information exchange. All this is necessary we are discussing. Soon, Facebook will Can we see the International Court in The Sun Tzu writes that you cannot manage in the party that the Tiananmen Square of entire states, shared financial systems, to deepen cooperation in the fight against provide its users with the functionality Hague condemn US representatives to the army in the same way that government protests should be suppressed brutally. banks, individual bank deposits, even in a common enemy, international terrorism, of generating information using telepathy the United Nations or the US President officials are managed. It’s the same with As a result, China today shares the 1st and a well-off country like Germany. which uses the same information tools. instead of writing or dictating texts. That for having launched that aggression? It the media. The media require a special 2nd places with the United States and is In 2016, the German Minister of the Whether it is possible to create an internet is, devices will be developed which can is ridiculous to talk about this. Have we approach and special respect. They are obviously one of the leading powers. Interior publicly drew attention to the Interpol, who will control it, whether it will read human thoughts easily and quickly. seen any cash compensation paid? No. not landing troops that can land right Stop making other people’s mistakes. It’s problem of cyber-attacks and seriously be possible to build confidence for data It is not fiction. Does it open the door to So let us stop deceiving ourselves. As long away and solve the problem. Their task time to mind our own sovereignty. urged the population to create water and exchange — all these issues needed to be new and dangerous technologies enabling as man exists, he will be imperfect. Let is different. The media should be treated Stop trying to please the external world. food reserves to be used in case of emer- addressed yesterday, not today. one to spy on the brain and specifically us avoid trying to improve human nature, with respect, in a systematic manner. The We need to try to please our own citizens gency. This caused many questions among It should be noted that topics such as to spy on national leaders? Are we on let us look at ourselves. media are inside the ideological structure. and our own country. the population, but it also demonstrated cyber-crime or espionage are hardly course for an Orwellian world? The media should answer the simplest We live in a very amusing time, when

/94 /95 2017 /Security of information space and freedom of access: a contradictory interrelation

HARLAN K. ULLMAN MAJED AL TURKI Senior Adviser at the Atlantic Council (USA) Director of the Saudi Centre for Media and Arab-Russian Studies

We are drowning in a sea of bits, zeroes currency exchanges. We have SWIFT to fact that our relationship has never been First of all, I would like to draw your try to undermine people’s confidence in terrorist attacks, both purely information and ones, and metadata. We urgently facilitate transfers across borders. And worse since the end of the Cold War. If attention to the terms that were used the ability of the state security services and real ones. need life rafts and lifeboats built on we have many ways of regulating that’s a triumph of diplomacy I don’t today. One of the terms that have been to ensure security and stability. They Let me propose cooperation between first principles. So, let me give you a and protecting the monetary system. know what is. discussed a lot is Islamic terrorism. It also try to undermine the activities Riyadh and Moscow in several areas: couple of these lifeboats as we think I believe that this is a good or even best So how do we try to recover from the seems to me that this term is associated of international organisations in their through not just the world of cyber analogy because we lack for the world of nadir to which this relationship has with some kind of mundane confusion. target countries and demonstrate that -- Cooperation in the field of information but information and communications cyberspace a series of first principles or a descended without making it worse? One In fact, one cannot say that NATO’s these countries are unable to maintain security in a broad sense, in combat- technologies as well. foundation in dealing with this very, very way to begin would be through a dialogue actions in Iraq or Afghanistan are a war security and protect international inter- ing drug trafficking and organised First, I am very uncomfortable with the amorphous and often ill-defined subject. over how do we deal with information, of Catholics against Muslims. Also, it ests. Finally, terrorists, through their crime, since they are the main source term information warfare. It is not new. I want to raise two questions, implicitly how we deal with cyber. During the Cold cannot be said that Russia’s interference attacks, undermine the socio-economic of finance for terrorist organisations If you read Sun Tzu, Carl von Clausewitz, that delve more deeply into this world War, you all know that one of the most in Syrian affairs is a war led by the situation in their countries of operation. and terrorist activities. Marshal Vasily Sokolovsky or two PLA of cyber. The thesis of this conference successful sets of negotiations was over Russian Orthodox Church. Therefore, It is difficult to identify the political air force colonels writing in 1999, the is that the greatest threat facing us arms control. And it wasn’t necessarily international terrorism cannot be charac- aspects of terrorist organisations’ -- Cooperation in the development means may have changed but informa- collectively is terrorism in the form of because we actually reduced the number terised as Islamic. We believe that we are activity due to two reasons. First, ter- of procedures and rules govern- tion warfare has been around for a very, jihadi and extreme violence. I disagree of weapons that we had and for a time talking about terrorism disguised under rorist organisations do not represent ing the use of electronic means of very long time. with that conclusion. In my view, I think limited anti-ballistic missile defence. religious clothes. My report is close to themselves, i.e. they express the will of communication. Second, one of the great problems we global terrorism a symptom not a cause. But both sides through this very long this topic, and it deals with technical some other hidden forces. Usually, they face conceptually with cyberspace and And I think the number one problem process got to know each other far information and tools that can be used are controlled by the secret services -- Direct cooperation in matters related the information space in general is that facing mankind today is failed and failing better. Washington and Moscow see in information warfare. of some states. Also, most often they to the fight against ISIS. we lack a foundation for policy and strat- government. the world in profoundly different ways. A key characteristic of terrorism is that seek to achieve purely information goals egy. Let me give you three analogies. As Failed and failing government exists Russia’s view of strategy and the role terrorism is a clandestine activity that focusing on the general public. Secondly, -- Cooperation in the ideological strug- a very, very former sailor I was intimately from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe with of defence and deterrence is far differ- uses clandestine means to achieve their goals vary depending on the wishes gle against extremism, and such familiar with the maritime rules of the Brussels and Washington in between. ent than America’s. And so, perhaps, its military goals and defeat the of their sponsors and customers, and struggle should not be limited to the road that very sensibly were in place Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders didn’t both sides could begin by striking enemy. Another aspect is connected therefore such organisations can often religious domain, but should embrace for safety and for preventing collisions. get as many votes as they did because up some way of using cyber, using with the characteristics of terrorist be seen to emerge suddenly in differ- the manifestations of extremism in a In 1945, three nuclear bombs were the American system of government communications and information as a organisations. As a rule, their leaders ent regions. The causes can only be broader sense. detonated and within three or four was working well. Brexit didn’t happen basis for exchange and dialogue. Maybe hide and do not appear in the informa- understood by analysing the events and years we had a system — or a concept because the British government was this is best done through the private tion space. They often come up with assessing who suffers and who benefits -- Cooperation in the organisation of or a theology — of deterrence. Now, really working well. What is happening sector, possibly through Google or one messages explaining the activities of from terrorist attacks. an international counter-terrorism deterrence theory may have been rather right now in France with Marine Le Pen of the many American and equivalent their organisations. An important point I believe Russian-Saudi cooperation conference, including the adoption of mystical and theological but we were is clearly a result of bad government. Russian companies. I think that this about the clandestine nature of terrorist in the field of counter-terrorism to be appropriate measures and laws. able to deal with it. And you can look around the world is essential. Because if action is not organisations is that they use symbols unconditionally important. We can talk But I think the most relevant analogy to identifying all these hot spots where taken right now I can almost guarantee or pseudonyms that do not enable the about the similarity of conditions on -- Organisation of a round table discus- cyber and information is the international bad government has really been a major you that the already dismal condition of identification of real individuals. both sides. The terrorist organisations’ sion on information security in a broad monetary and money system. Money like cause of these ideological religiously our relations will get worse. It will get The leaders of terrorist organisations set activities are directed against Sunni sense, in cooperation with research information is ubiquitous. People are motivated problems. worse politically, it will get worse in the themselves a number of strategic goals. Muslim communities and include, inter institutions and centres, on the trying to tamper with it, steal it, bend it, The second point I want you to consider fields of cyberspace and information First of all, they are willing to undermine alia, recruitment of Sunni Muslim youth margins of meetings of government do whatever they possibly can to manip- is how do we improve the US–Russian and communications. And neither the national security of the countries tar- for terrorist activities. Both Russia and experts. ulate it. Banks have got firewalls called relationship. When Secretary of State best interest of the United States, geted by terrorist attacks. Secondly, they Saudi Arabia have suffered multiple guards and safes; checking accounts Rex Tillerson was in Moscow last week Russia or any other country would be have passwords and all sorts of other and met with Foreign Minister Lavrov well served by that. safeguards are in place to protect money and President Putin, they achieved a and the monetary system. We have diplomatic standard of agreeing to the

/96 /97 2017 /Security of information space and freedom of access: a contradictory interrelation

NATALYA KASPERSKAYA President of InfoWatch Group, co-founder of Kaspersky Lab

At the end of last year, WikiLeaks disguised as programmes developed any surprise among those who spin published a major leak showing that by other countries. the news, because their task is not to the United States’ CIA developed weap- So, let me make the following conclu- prove, but to repeat for many times. onised malware. The leak included 8,500 sion: it is necessary to fight against We will simply repeat the statement documents, and many signs suggest such cyber-attacks and confront them. about the terrible threat coming from that the documents are authentic. It While understanding at the same Russian hackers for 250,000 times, and is not the fact that the CIA develops time that any publication concerning eventually everyone will believe it. weaponised viruses that is interesting, cyber-attacks and any equation of a The Internet of Things is a hot topic right since it was known or at least one could cyber-attack to a real military attack now. In fact, we are talking about the guess about it. What’s interesting is the is extremely dangerous. Because the creeping introduction of information fact that the CIA has a separate unit responsibility for some virus can be technology in our traditional engineer- that disguises such viruses to make attributed not to its real developer. ing systems, i.e. in systems that used them look as software developed by In this connection, the phenomenon of to be reliably protected, especially other countries. Russia, China, and Russian hackers that has been actively critical facilities; and we are now simply Arab countries were named among discussed during the last six months is introducing information technology for such countries. particularly illustrative. However, it is a the sake of incremental improvement or One should bear in mind that if a hacker purely media phenomenon, and it is just performance increase. And the system is unwilling to be identified, he can easily a vivid example of an information attack becomes as unprotected as a regular do it. Computer crime clearance rates that we spoke a great deal about today. computer, for which over 7 million are extremely low, with about 5% of There are some mysterious Russian viruses have been created. crimes cleared and 95% remaining hackers who are so mighty that they It is a serious problem, and I would pro- unsolved. General Igor Dylevsky came can elect the president of the most pose to draft an international convention up with a good proposal to ensure that powerful country in the world. However, on non-proliferation of cyber-weapons information attacks entail punishment, they are also so stupid and naïve that and the recognition of non-proliferation but, unfortunately, it is extremely they cannot even hide the traces of their of cyber-weapons by all countries. We difficult or even impossible to identify intrusion into the network, although all understand that this may be a kind the initiator and the true author of an 95% of computer intruders do know of double-dealing, but it is necessary to attack, especially in the light of the fact how to do that. There is some kind of discuss this and strive to ensure that that necessary camouflage measures logical contradiction, a quite obvious all countries, in particular the leading can be taken and malware can be one, which, however, does not cause powers, sign such a convention.

/98 /99 Discussion 3 BMD: implications for global and regional security 2017 /BMD: implications for global and regional security

LIEUTENANT-GENERAL VIKTOR POZNIKHIR Moderator Lieutenant-General Major-General Cai Jun First Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff Lieutenant-General (Retired) Viktor Poznikhir Deputy Chief of the Main Operational of the Russian Armed Forces Evgeny Buzhinskiy First Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Joint Staff Department under China’s Central Military Commission Chairman of the PIR Center Directorate of the General Staff Executive Board of the Russian Armed Forces The evolving situation in the field of threats, the United States withdrew may lead to serious consequences in missile defence is the key issue of inter- from the ABM Treaty and initiated a the field of security. national security. The missile defence massive deployment of mobile and First, the existence of a global missile factor has a direct impact on the arms stationary missile defence systems defence system lowers the threshold race, nuclear disarmament, and on the that had previously been covered by the for the use of nuclear weapons because maintenance of strategic stability. This restrictions set out in this agreement. it gives the United States an illusion of is due to the fact that strategic offen- Today, elements of the US missile impunity over a sudden use of strategic sive weapons and strategic defensive defence system are deployed in offensive arms under the “missile weapons are inseparably linked. the Continental United States, in defence umbrella”. Based on an understanding of the Europe, and in the Asia-Pacific region. Second, US missile defence undermines destabilising impact of missile defence, Maritime means for ballistic missile the existing balance of deterrent in 1972 the Soviet Union and the United interception are deployed near Russia’s forces, thereby posing a threat to the States signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile and China’s shores. According to the implementation of the 2010 Treaty on Major-General (Retired) Richard Weitz Treaty. It provided for the maintenance US Administration, today the missile Measures for the Further Reduction and Sergey Yagolnikov Director of the Centre for Political-Military of military-strategic parity of nuclear defence system is already capable Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms Chief of the Central Scientific Research Institute Analysis at Hudson Institute (USA) deterrent capabilities between the two of fulfilling current operational tasks. and the 1987 Treaty on the Elimination of Aerospace Defence Forces of the Ministry leading nuclear powers. The decision has already been made to of Intermediate-Range and Shorter- of Defence of the Russian Federation For 30 years the ABM Treaty had been further expand its capacity. Range Missiles. the cornerstone of strategic stability, The deployment of global missile Third, the creation of the missile which was in turn the basis for all the defence gradually destroys the existing defence system poses a threat to the ensuing arrangements regarding the international security system. By build- security of international space activ- limitation and reduction of strategic ing up its missile defence capabilities, ities and obstructs the conclusion of offensive arms. In 2002, using an argu- the United States aims to achieve a stra- agreements on the non-deployment of ment that revolved around the so-called tegic advantage by devaluing Russian weapons in space. Iranian and North Korean missile and Chinese deterrent capabilities. This Fourth, missile defence serves as an

Main provisions of the ABM treaty (1972)

SAFEGUARD MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM MOSCOWS MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM

GRAND FORKS AFB MOSCOW R ≤ 150 km R ≤ 150 km Composition: up to 100 interceptor missiles Composition: up to 100 interceptor missiles no more than 2 phased-array radars no more than 6 missile defence radars

EACH PARTY UNDERTAKES: 1. not to develop, test, or deploy ABM systems or components which are sea-based, air-based, space-based, or mobile land-based. Not to develop, test, or deploy ABM launchers for launching more than one ABM interceptor missile at a time. 2. not to transfer to other states, and not to deploy outside its national territory, ABM systems or their components

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The US global BMD system Information and intelligence component of the US BMD system

Fort Greely INFORMATION RESOURCES OF THE LAND- AND SEA-BASED BMD SYSTEM GBI interceptor missiles

Romania and Poland Patrols by BMD ships in the RADARS Aegis Ashore BMD systems water zones of the Mediterranean IN THE BALLISTIC Black and Baltic Seas MISSILE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (LONG RANGE)

Rota Naval Station Spain 2 AN/SPY-1 RADARS 1 SBX-1 RADAR 35 AN/SPY-1 RADARS 10 AN/TPY-2 RADARS destroyers euipped with Aegis Combat System

Vandenberg GBI interceptor missiles Deployment and patrols by BMD ships RUSSIA in the Asia-Pacific Region RUSSIA

Number of BMD radars Number of interceptor missiles Level of funding (US billion)

2001 20 2001 100 RUSSIA

2017 46 2017 300 10,3 11,2 10,8 10,5 10,9 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

incentive for a missile build-up around ballistic missiles in the direction of the targeting data to radars in missile ICBMs and SLBMs, hence the possibility data directly from the space vehicle launches and track their flight trajec- the world, and thus provokes a new United States. defence complexes. of their interception also increases. to interceptor, the capabilities of the tories, but also enable the transfer arms race. US radars cover almost the entire The use of the sea-based mobile radar A growth in the US missile defence US missile defence system will move of target designation data to missile As a military expert, I would like elabo- territory of Russia. near Alaska, radars in Romania and system’s information capabilities is to a new level. defence system to intercept warheads rate on what is behind these statements. These radars are capable of tracking Poland as well as missile defence expected as a result of the develop- Thus, the information and surveillance of ballistic missiles. Stationary radars involved in the US the flight of intercontinental ballistic ships’ information systems significantly ment of a low-orbit space system capabilities of the US missile defence Let’s consider the firepower capabilities missile early warning system cover all missile and submarine-launched increases operational capability and for detecting and tracking ballistic system today make it possible not of the US missile defence system. possible flight trajectories of Russian ballistic missile warheads and feeding accuracy of targeting data about Russian missiles. Due to the ability to transmit only to detect Russian ballistic missile Today, they comprise about 30 GBI

Consequences of the deployment of the US BMD system Information and intelligence component of the US BMD system

AEROSPACE RESOURCES OF THE BMD SYSTEM — GLOBAL CONTROL LOWERS THE THRESHOLD UNDERMINES THE EXISTING POSES A THREAT TO THE SECURITY FOR THE USE OF NUCLEAR BALANCE OF DETERRENT OF INTERNATIONAL SPACE WEAPONS FORCES ACTIVITIES IMEWS SATELLITES SBIRS SATELLITES STSS 2017 — 2 SATELLITES

PROVOKES A SUDDEN USE POSES A THREAT OBSTRUCTS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CONCLUSION

Treaty on Measures Treaty on the of agreements on the for the Further Elimination of non-deployment of Reduction and Intermediate-Range weapons in space Limitation of Strategic and Shorter-Range Offensive Arms Missiles

THE DEPLOYMENT OF THE US GLOBAL BMD SYSTEM CAN LEAD TO UNPREDICTABLE CONSEUENCES

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Fire component of the US BMD system US BMD system capability to intercept Chinese and Russian missiles

GBI systems Aegis Ashore system Ships euipped with Aegis THAAD systems Alaska (Fort Greely), California Romania (Deveselu) and Standard Missile- United States (Fort Bliss, Texas and Guam). (Vandenberg). Planned deployment This system is being built interceptors THAAD battery is being deployed of 20 more interceptor missiles in Poland (Redzikowo) in South Korea Spain (Rota), Japan (Yokosuka), West in the north-east of the United States Coast and East Coast of the United States Planned construction of 10 more Arleigh Burke-class destroyers

THERE ARE AROUND INTERCEPTOR MISSILES DEPLOYED WHICH IS INCOMMENSURATE WITH THE LEVEL OF THE IRANIAN AND NORTH KOREAN MISSILE THREATS (NO MORE THAN 10 INTERMEDIATE-RANGE MISSILES). BY 2022, THE NUMBER OF INTERCEPTORS WILL INCREASE MORE THAN 3 TIMES, TO OVER 1,000.

interceptors, 130 Standard Missile-3 the missile defence system will have the ongoing work to modernise missile to be deployed in 2018, will be capable of launched it is detected by the space launch the missile interceptor. interceptors, 150 THAAD system more than 1,000 interceptors, and in defence weapon systems. intercepting strategic ballistic missiles missile attack early warning system, The balance of time allows the system interceptors deployed on US territory the future, their number will exceed After the modernisation of Standard not only in the midcourse and terminal the type of missile is identified as are to carry out the firing and interception and as part of European and Asia-Pacific the number of warheads deployed on Missile-3 interceptor it will have phase, but also in the ascending phase its launch area and launch azimuth. of the Russian SLBM. missile defence regional segments. A Russian intercontinental missiles. increased velocity, range, and altitude of the missile’s flight path. Having received preliminary target These results of the simulation demon- certain number of interceptors are This amount of missile defence firepower of interception of ballistic missiles. In this case, missile interceptors designation data, the missile defence strate that due to the high velocity of deployed on US allies’ ships. poses a serious threat to the Russian As Russian experts have concluded, would be capable of hitting Russian ship automatically directs the shipborne the interceptor, in both cases intercep- According to our estimates, by 2022, deterrent capability, especially given Standard Missile-3 Block IIA, expected and Chinese ballistic missiles before radar to the search sector of the bal- tion of the target is possible in the initial the warheads are dispensed. Research listic target. stage of its flight. institutions under the Russian Defence As more information on the target’s The next scenario simulates the launch Ministry have conducted a computer trajectory is accumulated, the target of multiple Russian ballistic missiles. Variants of sea- and land-based SM-3 interceptor missiles simulation of the interception of designation is prepared to launch a The missile field is located in central Russian and Chinese ballistic missiles missile interceptor. Russia, and interceptors are launched by US missile defence. In this scenario, the interception was from the continental United States. I would like to emphasise that we con- successful and was implemented at the Since detection and until impact or sidered hypothetical scenarios in which initial stage of the Russian interconti- interception, Russian missiles are the ballistic missiles were launched in nental ballistic missile’s flight. tracked by missile defence space THE END OF THE BOOST PHASE the northern direction. These scenarios In the second case, the simulation segment assets. are used for research purposes. The involves intercepting a missile launched Trajectory information received is used selection of scenarios is intended to from a submarine by a shipborne missile to direct land-based and sea-based give an idea of the conditions of the defence complex in the Norwegian Sea. missile defence information capabilities. use and the capabilities of the global The initial situation: a missile defence As the missiles enter the operations missile defence system. ship equipped with Standard Missile-3 area of the ground echelon of the The first scenario shows the interception interceptors is patrolling in the missile attack early warning system, STANDARD MISSILE3 BLOCK IА STANDARD MISSILE3 BLOCK IB STANDARD MISSILE3 BLOCK IIА of an intercontinental ballistic missile Norwegian Sea, a Russian submarine the targets are tracked by radars in launched from the European part of is located in the Barents Sea. Greenland, the United Kingdom, and Russia by a shipborne missile defence An SLBM launch is detected by the Alaska. complex located in the Baltic Sea. space system, on which information the With data provided by them, the high- The flight of the Russian missile follows shipborne radar performs acquisition resolution sea-based missile defence a ballistic trajectory. and tracking of the ballistic missile and radar in the Pacific Ocean is utilised. A few seconds after the missile is transmits target designation data to Data received through these information

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capabilities is used to prepare target positioning area of GBI interceptors in used on ships to launch interceptors and designation for GBI interceptors located the northeastern United States, plans cruise missiles are installed at the missile in Alaska and on the West Coast of the for which have been announced by defence bases in Romania and Poland. Mk-41 multiple-purpose vertical launching system United States. Washington, the cumulative capabilities The idea that the land-based version of Interception of the missile was carried of the missile defence system will make the Mk 41 launcher supposedly loses out by an interceptor launched from it possible to intercept all Russian and its ability to launch cruise missiles is THE MK IS A US SHIPBORNE MISSILE CANISTER VERTICAL LAUNCHING SYSTEM. IT IS USED BY THE US NAVY AND SHIPS Alaska. Two remaining missiles are in Chinese ballistic missiles flying in the unconvincing. Interceptors at European OF SOME OTHER COUNTRIES FOR LAUNCHING SM-2, SM-3 AND SM-6, ASROC, SEA SPARROW, ESSM, AND TOMAHAWK MISSILES. the impact zone of GBI interceptors direction of the United States. missile defence bases can be replaced deployed in California. The strike capability of the missile with Tomahawk cruise missiles covertly Мk-41 multiple-purpose vertical launching system In this situation, the warheads of defence grouping poses as much of a and within a short timeframe. In this Russian missiles, whose trajectories threat to the security of Russia and case, the entirety of European Russia Reloadable canister Мk-41 land-based avoid the area covered by regional China. Missile defence cruisers and would be in the cruise missiles’ range. multiple-purpose vertical launching system segments of missile defence, can be destroyers of the US Navy, equipped with I would like to emphasise that the SM-3 interceptor missile intercepted by missile defence weapons interceptors, also carry Tomahawk cruise possibility of using the land-based ver- systems based on US territory. missiles with a range of up to 2,500 km. sion of a shipborne launcher to deploy Russian experts also assessed the Each Ticonderoga-class cruiser is Tomahawk cruise missiles is a direct capabilities of the US ballistic missile equipped with 128 Mk 41 launchers violation of obligations under the Treaty defence system of firing at Chinese and each Arleigh Burke-class destroyer on the Elimination of Intermediate- ballistic missiles. with 96 of them. These launchers are Range and Shorter-Range Missiles. In this scenario, GBI interceptors fired universal. They are capable of launching We have repeatedly conveyed to our from areas in Alaska and on the West Standard Missile-3 interceptors as well American partners Russia’s concerns Coast of the United States intercept as Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles. over the violations of international Chinese ballistic missiles. Potentially, more than 1,000 Tomahawk obligations by the United States. There Integrating data from space sensors, cruise missiles could be deployed on has been no reaction. destruction of any target anywhere interceptors with increased velocity, Russian and Chinese ballistic missiles, sea-based, and land-based radars these missile defence ships. Missile Under its concept of joint use of offen- around the globe within one hour from as well as that of GBI interceptors, is upsetting the balance of deterrence. makes it possible to launch and guide defence ships patrolling the Black and sive and defensive arms, the Pentagon the moment the decision is made. The much greater. Virtually all low-orbit Second. Today the US missile defence interceptors. Baltic seas pose a threat to facilities in started to develop an advanced Prompt US armed forces should receive the first spacecraft in the area covered by missile system is capable of intercepting A Chinese ballistic missile, launched in European Russia, as there is uncertainty Global Strike weapons system. of these systems in 2020. defence weapons are under threat of Russian and Chinese ballistic missiles the northeastern direction, is success- regarding which weapon is currently According to doctrinal views, this capa- The link between plans to deploy the destruction. and currently poses a threat to Russian fully intercepted by a US GBI interceptor. loaded into the launchers. bility is designed to conduct sudden missile defence system and to create Given the global nature of missile and Chinese strategic nuclear forces. With the deployment of the third The same universal launchers that are pre-emptive strikes and to ensure the prompt global strike weapons is defence ships’ actions, the activities In the future it will become even more obvious. If a sudden disarming strike in space pursued by any state including capable of doing so. is delivered against Russian and Chinese the Russian Federation and the People’s Third. The presence of US missile defence strategic nuclear forces targets, the Republic of China are under threat. bases in Europe, missile defence ships in Prompt global strike effectiveness of the US missile defence Russian representatives repeatedly the seas and oceans near Russian ter- system would significantly increase. and at various levels have drawn the ritory creates a powerful covert strike Thus, the creation of prompt global American side’s attention to the danger component for a possible launch of a strike weapons is another factor that posed by the global missile defence sys- sudden nuclear missile attack against THE PENTAGONS DOCTRINAL DOCUMENTS confirms Washington’s desire to destroy tem to the global strategic balance. Our the Russian Federation. the existing balance of forces and arguments are disregarded and obvious Fourth. The deployment of the US ensure its global strategic dominance. facts are being ignored. The United missile defence system upsets the It is necessary to mention the threats States claims that their missile defence existing parity in strategic weapons THE DEVELOPMENT OF HYPERSONIC LAND-, SEA-, AND AIR-BASED that US missile defence poses to space system is not directed against Russia and serves as a destabilising factor, STRIKE SYSTEMS IS UNDERWAY WITHIN THE PROMPT GLOBAL STRIKE PROGRAMME. THE SYSTEMS SHALL ENSURE THE DESTRUCTION activities. and China. However, as you have seen, greatly diminishing the possibility of OF ANY TARGET ANYWHERE AROUND THE GLOBE WITHIN ONE HOUR In February 2008, the Pentagon the results of our computer simulation a dialogue on nuclear disarmament. FROM THE MOMENT THE DECISION IS MADE demonstrated that it was capable of suggest otherwise. Fifth. The build-up of US missile striking spacecraft with missile defence Overall, based on our analysis of United defence capability encourages an

2010 Quadrennial 2010 Nuclear weapons. In that year, a US satellite States’ and their allies’ actions over mis- arms race, primarily in the area of Defense Review Posture Review at an altitude of about 250 km was sile defence and the simulation results strategic weapons, forcing other destroyed by one of the earliest ver- we can draw the following conclusions: states to take retaliatory military IF A SUDDEN DISARMING STRIKE IS DELIVERED AGAINST RUSSIAN AND CHINESE STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TARGETS, sions of Standard Missile-3 interceptor First. Under the pretext of countering and military-technical measures. THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE US MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. launched from a US Navy cruiser. the North Korean and Iranian missile Sixth. The global US missile defence The anti-satellite capability of threats, the United States is deploying system poses a threat to the free use advanced Standard Missile-3 Block IIA a strategic system designed to destroy of outer space by any state.

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In conclusion, I would like to draw your we proposed to conduct a joint threat appropriate measures aimed at prevent- MAJOR-GENERAL CAI JUN attention to the fact that, after the analysis to determine what kind of ing the existing balance of forces in the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Joint Staff Department US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, missile defence would be appropriate area of strategic arms from being upset under China’s Central Military Commission Russian officials have repeatedly and would not create preconditions for and at minimising possible damage to explained that the destruction of stra- a new arms race in the strategic field. the security of the state as a result of tegic stability as a result of the creation In the framework of our cooperation further US missile defence build-up. and deployment of the global missile we also proposed to jointly develop a But the world will not be safer. The international strategic balance will undermine global and regional and The Republic of Korea on the other. defence system would be disastrous. At missile defence architecture for Europe That is why we call for equal and con- is undergoing a deep restructuring. stability, without providing absolute It further increases the uncertainty the same time, efforts have been made that could guarantee protection from structive dialogue on the issue of missile The security situation is becoming security for the country developing on the peninsula, thereby making a to find solutions to problems relating to non-strategic missile strikes. defence that aims to find solutions that complex and volatile. We are facing such a system. new escalation and the outbreak of the development of US missile defence, However, all the Russian initiatives were factor in the interests of all interested many new pressing issues in the At present, the United States is using an armed conflict more likely. All of and various options were proposed to rejected. parties. global governance framework that the pretext of countering the alleged this runs counter to efforts by the resolve emerging disputes. In particular, Russia is therefore forced to take should be resolved through dialogue North Korean and Iranian missile United Nations and the international between all states. In particular, threats to deploy instruments such as community to resolve all differences one of the important issues is six DSP satellites, six SBIRS satellites, though political dialogue. missile defence, which has a major two STS satellites, five ground-based The United States and the Republic and long-term impact on the global early warning radars, one Cobra Dane of Korea reiterate their assurances strategic balance, stability, peace, radar, six X-band radars, 30 ground- that the deployment of the THAAD and security. The deployment of the based mid-course interceptors, 33 system pursues the sole objective global missile defence system, which Aegis ships, one Aegis Ashore system, of defending them from a North undermines the strategic balance and 11 Patriot-3 missile battalions, and Korean nuclear missile threat, and is stability, inevitably leads to a dete- five THAAD batteries, which consti- not aimed against any third country. rioration in the international security tute an already existing global missile But in truth, the Korean peninsula is situation. The broader international defence system. Nevertheless, the only 840 km long from north to south, community is opposed to it. The UN United States continues to develop requiring a maximum ballistic range General Assembly has passed several new versions of weapons systems and of no more than 1,000 km, whereas resolutions calling on the respective to advance their global deployment, the range of the THAAD system’s countries to suspend their missile with major implications for global and radar is over 2,000 km. The system defence development plans. regional stability. is therefore capable of intercepting A missile defence system is essen- Meanwhile, the situation on the ballistic missiles with a range of up to tially a defensive instrument. The Korean peninsula remains extremely 3,500 km. Using such a radar deployed development of such a system should complicated and volatile. Using the in Seongju County in The Republic be proportionate to the actual threat, argument of the North Korean nuclear of Korea, it is possible to track the it should not be disproportionate to tests and missile launches, the United test flights of ground and sea-based the defensive needs of the country States is strengthening its asymmet- missiles in northeastern China and developing that system. But for those ric operational superiority over North the Bohai Sea. The circular segment states that possess large numbers of Korea by deploying a missile defence of their detection is over 5 minutes, offensive strategic weapons and place system in the Asia-Pacific region. which makes it possible to gather a the emphasis on preventive measures, On the one hand, this inevitably lot of data. This will, therefore, inflict a missile defence system serves as encourages the DPRK to ramp up its major damage on our national security. a shield that enables the launch of nuclear and missile capability. On the The United States and The Republic a preventive strike and strengthens other, it lays the ground for the United of Korea have already deployed more the superiority of a strategic strike. A States and The Republic of Korea to than 100 launchers of the Patriot-3 unilateral strengthening of a missile try to resolve the situation on the missile defence system and 10 Aegis defence system that ignores the peninsula through the use of force. ships in the Asia-Pacific region. We overall international situation and It has become quite clear, over the have a saying in China, “Xiang Zhuang the legitimate rights of other states years, that the strategy of military performs the sword dance, but his becomes the aspiration to absolute threats does not work. In particular, mind is set on Liu Bang”, meaning an unilateral military superiority. It the missile defence ring being built elaborate deception hiding malicious will strengthen the likelihood that in the Asia-Pacific region by the intent. The real reason that the THAAD international disputes are resolved United States and its allies is further system is being deployed is that the through the use of force, exacerbate exacerbating the military and political United States wants to augment the the tense regional situation, and confrontation between North Korea on existing elements of its global missile trigger an arms race. In the end, it the one hand and the United States defence system and, at some point,

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further increase the capability of the China and Russia are opposed to in Asia-Pacific, which ignores the MAJOR-GENERAL (RETIRED) SERGEY YAGOLNIKOV Asia-Pacific segment of that system the deployment of a global missile security concerns of countries in Chief of the Central Scientific Research Institute of Aerospace Defence orcesF versus China and Russia; to acquire a defence system. The leaders of both the region. We will continue to take of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation greater ability to monitor the strategic states have already adopted a joint further measures in response to these depth of China and Russia’s Far East; declaration on strengthening global steps in order to protect Chinese and I represent one of the Russian Ministry of the interceptors. Once this data is available, preparations of the interceptor and for and to degrade the strategic capability strategic stability. That declaration Russian security interests and uphold Defence’s research centres that conducted preparations to launch the interceptor can calculating the intercept coordinates. This of both Russia and China. Such steps expresses our opposition to the US the strategic balance in the region. the aforementioned assessments of the begin. As soon as the interceptor is ready, algorithm of preparing and using the missile are very detrimental to our strategic deployment of its Aegis Ashore sys- capability of the US missile defence system. it can be launched using the targeting defence complex leaves plenty of time for interests. tems in Europe and THAAD systems One of the most important questions about calculations completed beforehand, made intercepting Russian ICBM and SLBM at the US missile defence system that is being more precise by the real-time data received the ascending phase of their flight. As a deployed in Europe and Asia, is whether from satellites and terrestrial radars. This result, there is the potential technical it is capable of intercepting Russian makes it possible to use the head-on course capability to intercept Russian ICBM and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) for approaching the ICBM/SLBM. And since SLBM using the head-on approach from the and submarine-launched ballistic missiles the SM-3 interceptors can travel at more 150th second of the ascending phase of their (SLBM) at the ascending phase of their than 5 km per second, they are entirely trajectory. Of course, we also need to take trajectory, including the boost phase. The capable of intercepting Russian ICBM and into account the geographical relationship US argument boils down to the statement SLBM. Once the interceptor missile has between the ICBM/SLBM launch sites and that this type of intercept is impossible been launched, its interceptor stage can the interceptor launch sites. I would like to because the flight of an ICBM or SLBM be guided to within range of the homing emphasise that, during joint Russian–US during the boost phase is unpredictable, head’s seeker by processing all the data and Russian–NATO exercises, the calcula- and there is not enough time to calculate its received from the space-based sensors, tions obtained using Russian models, which trajectory for the interceptor to be targeted missile attack early warning systems, and have been tested on numerous occasions, with precision. According to the United data-gathering instruments of the missile were never questioned or criticised by US States, an interceptor can be launched defence system itself. Such an algorithm or NATO specialists. Also, several American no sooner than 40 to 50 seconds after the was used in 2012 during a joint Russia– scientists, including George Lewis and end of the ICBM/SLBM boost phase, which NATO exercise using a model developed Theodore A. Postol, have completed their translates to the 220th–230th second of the by IABG, a company based in Ottobrunn, own calculations, and confirmed the feasi- missile’s flight. Germany. With the help of this model, a bility of intercepting Russian ICBM/SLBM Given the available flight time of the US missile interceptor was launched using by US missile defence capabilities at the interceptor, which is about 90 seconds, preliminary targeting data, and the exact ascending phase. Since intercepting ICBM the Americans say that the interceptor targeting coordinates were sent to the and SLBM at the ascending phase offers a can strike the ballistic missile only by interceptor later on, when it was already in number of significant advantages, in the near catching up with it on a pursuit course, flight. In addition, due to the development of future this could become one of the default which is technically impossible because the interceptors with cluster warheads carrying approaches to using interceptor systems. interceptor does not have sufficient velocity multiple kill vehicles, at some point in the To conclude, let me second the argument to catch up with an ICBM or SLBM. But future, missile interceptors will require less made by Major-General Cai Jun, deputy assessments conducted by Russian spe- precise targeting data against ICBM and chief of the Main Operations Department cialists suggest otherwise. In essence, once SLBM. Let me cite our estimates of the of the Joint Staff Department under China’s you have information about the locations time parameters for intercepting Russian Central Military Commission, who said of the ICBM or SLBM launch sites, you can ICBM and SLBM, calculated on the basis of that the United States’ deployment of the determine the most likely directions of the the known characteristics of the US missile THAAD missile defence complex in South ballistic missiles’ launches in advance. You defence system, including the capability Korea is not a proportionate response to can also calculate in advance the trajectory provided by integrating the data received the North Korean missile threat, and that of the Russian ballistic missiles’ flight and from satellites, land-based radars, and it pursues other goals. We are confident the possible intercept area allowed by the sea-based radars. that Washington’s real goal is to give its location of the interceptor system sites. Using the external target designation data missile defence system a global capability These calculations can be fed into the algo- received from satellites, for example from and to strengthen its Asian segment, the rithms to compute preliminary targeting the SBIRS spacecraft, missile interceptors main targets of which are China and Russia. data for the interceptors. Also, by tracking can be launched as early as 85 seconds Russian and Chinese experts have reached the movement of the ICBM/SLBM jet plume after the ICBM/SLBM launch. That includes an agreement to continue their joint using space-based missile attack early 20 seconds the SBIRS system requires to research into the impact of the US missile warning systems, it is possible to determine detect an ICBM/SLBM launch, 20 seconds defence system on strategic stability in the the azimuth of the ballistic missile launch, for the launch command to reach the Asia-Pacific region. and provide approximate targeting data to interceptor, and 45 seconds for pre-launch

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RICHARD WEITZ LIEUTENANT-GENERAL (RETIRED) EVGENY BUZHINSKIY Director of the Centre for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute (USA) Chairman of the PIR Center Executive Board

We need to think creatively how to further threaten regional stability. The four governments should analyse The United States insists that it is us recall that initially, the Americans defence in Europe; the focus switched prevent ballistic missile defence Moscow and Beijing have sharply BMD-related confidence-building and deploying such a powerful missile explained their plans to deploy GBI to Iran only. Additionally, looking back, technologies from escalating nuclear denounced US-South Korean BMD stability-enhancing measures such defence force, consisting of dozens of interceptors in Poland and a radar in the let us recall the argument the United instability in Northeast Asia through activities in numerous bilateral and as restricting the size, location, and ships and hundreds of missile intercep- Czech Republic by the need to intercept States put forward for signing the 1972 confidence-building and stability- multilateral forums, undertaken capabilities of US BMD on the Korean tors on the ground and at sea, for the Iranian and North Korean missiles, ABM Treaty. Their then defence secretary, enhancing measures among Russia, Russian-Chinese counter-BMD exer- peninsula; increasing reliance on sole purpose of intercepting an Iranian should those countries attempt a missile Robert McNamara, persuaded the Soviet China, South Korea, and the United cises, discussed­ establishing their own less-destabilising military technolo- missile — which, as yet, does not even strike against the United States. But leadership that an ABM system is not States, especially regarding the US joint BMD programme, curtailed security gies; crafting joint information-sharing exist. From the Russian point of view, then the Russian military drew their US a defensive system at all, because its Terminal High Altitude Area Defence ties with South Korea, and pursued mechanisms aimed at reassurance that argument does not hold water. Iran partners’ attention to the distance to the purpose is to deflect a retaliatory strike (THAAD) system in South Korea. additional offensive strategic technol- through transparency; and building a does not have such missiles; furthermore, United States that any putative North and minimise the damage from such a The Russian and Chinese governments, ogies directed against the United States, multinational BMD network similar to as far as I am aware, they don’t even Korean missile would have to travel if strike — so in essence, it is a weapon of along with some independent experts, i.e. multiple independently targetable the one NATO and Russia considered have plans to develop missiles with a launched over Russian territory. After a potential aggressor, and a factor that have claimed that the US BMD deploy- re-entry vehicles, cyber-strike weap- before the Ukraine crisis. range greater than 2,400 km, let alone that, North Korea disappeared from US undermines strategic stability. ment could intensify a strategic arms ons, upgraded nuclear and hypersonic For example, the study would consider intercontinental ballistic missiles. Let explanations of why they need missile race, elevate the risks of inadvertent delivery systems, etc. how confidence-building and conflict war, and undermine mutual deterrence Yet, recent developments have estab- management measures developed by enhancing the US ability to intercept lished a more favourable environment earlier to manage Russian-US tensions their strategic missiles. to address BMD-related instability in regarding European-based BMD might Their collective apprehensions extend Northeast Asia: widespread dissat- now apply to the Korean situation, to future US BMD plans and capabilities, isfaction with North Korea’s nuclear where conditions for compromise are US-led multinational BMD networks and missile programmes as well as arguably more favourable. encompassing other Asian partners, Pyongyang’s provocative rhetoric; A successful outcome would ideally spur integrated offensive-defensive capa- renewed Russian-US security dialogue; further cooperation on related nuclear bilities giving Washington pre-emptive and regional alarm at Sino-US tensions security issues, such as the Six-Party strike options, and hardening US dip- as well as further horizontal and vertical Talks and the P-5 Process. lomatic stances that they argue could nuclear weapons proliferation.

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COLONEL-GENERAL IGOR KOROBOV Moderator Colonel-General Hans-Jakob Schindler Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed orcesF — Zamir Kabulov Igor Korobov Coordinator of the ISIL (Daesh), Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Special Representative of the Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Al-Qaeda and Taliban Monitoring Team, President of the Russian Federation for Staff of the Russian Armed Forces — UN Security Council Afghanistan, Ambassador Extraordinary Deputy Chief of the General Staff and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation I would like to begin by saying that the the Islamic Party of Afghanistan led from Afghanistan and turn the country Central Asian republics are not just by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is engaged into a theocracy named the Islamic neighbours and important foreign part- in the political settlement process. Emirate of Afghanistan. ners of the Russian Federation. These are The others continue to maintain their Even though the Taliban have had two countries that share a long history with irreconcilable stance. leaders since the death of Mullah Omar Russia, and for whose security, stability As a result, the security situation in in 2015, it has managed to preserve its and growth Russia feels a special sense Afghanistan continues to deteriorate. unity, strengthen its control over its of responsibility. At present, each one of The central government in Kabul is fighters in the field, and win support these republics is following its own path now in control of only about 60% of among broad swathes of the Afghan of building its statehood and resolving the Afghan territory. In 2015, this figure population. various problems that are either shared by was at 70%. Attempts are being made As a result, its military capability all the countries in the region or specific to use military force to restore gov- has seen a significant improvement. to each individual state. At the same time, ernment control over extremist-held For example, in August–September the threats posed by the international territory; this has led to mounting 2016 it came very close to seizing the Colonel-General Lieutenant-General Taalatbek terrorist organisations, religious extrem- losses among the Afghan troops. In administrative centres of the Helmand, Abdul Hamid Hamid Shavkat Normatov Masadykov ism, and drug trafficking from across the 2015 some 5,000 Afghan servicemen Kunduz, and Uruzgan provinces. The Deputy Chief of the General Staff First Deputy Minister of Defence — Chief Expert (Kyrgyzstan) border with Afghanistan are facing every were killed; in 2016 this figure rose government managed to beat the of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan of the General Staff of the Ministry of Defence single Central Asian republic. to over 6,500. There are also growing extremists back only with the help of of the Republic of Uzbekistan Unfortunately, we must acknowledge civilian casualties; 11,500 civilians foreign troops. that efforts by the national unity gov- were killed in the fighting in 2016. Nevertheless, the Taliban kept the ernment of Afghanistan have failed to The Taliban remain the main military government forces on the back foot achieve a revitalisation of the Afghan and ideological opponent of the gov- over summer, essentially keeping them economy or a national reconciliation ernment in Kabul. It controls approx- pent up at their bases. Meanwhile, in that country. At this time, of all imately 40,000 to 50,000 fighters. Its local administrations, especially in the armed opposition groups, only objective is to oust all foreign troops rural areas, often work under the

Tajikistan Taliban peak activity areas

Nandan Unnikrishnan Pakistan Vice President and Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (India) Iran Kabul PESHAWAR COUNCIL executive body of the Taliban

Areas of peak AFGHANISTAN propaganda by ISIL MIRAMSHAH COUNCIL regional body of the Quetta council

UETTA COUNCIL H. Akhundzada supreme council of the Taliban Taliban Leader

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This has been made possible by the dif- as spring 2015, it had more than 4,000 allies and NATO partners, have been ficult social and economic situation in militants operating in the country. present in Afghanistan for many Ways and methods of Islamite propaganda the country, and by the fact that many That figure has now fallen by almost years — but they have not come any people are receptive to the ideas of 15%, thanks to a more energetic cam- closer to their proclaimed goal of radical Islam. The ISIS strategy of cre- paign by Afghan government troops, eradicating terrorists. Washington ating an Islamic caliphate poses a real backed by the US Air Force and local and Brussels are well aware of the USE OF ELECTRONIC MASS MEDIA Interaction threat to the security of Afghanistan self-defence force units. The Taliban danger of leaving the Afghan govern- with tribal leaders itself and of the neighbouring Central have also made a major contribution to ment to face the extremists on its and South Asian states. At this time, containing ISIS. It is unwilling to allow own; they are taking steps to maintain the Islamists have about 3,500 fighters an ideologically alien outfit to encroach their military presence in the country Radio broadcasting Social networks in their ranks in Afghanistan; they on its turf. Neither does it wish to share for the long run. But even though they intend to at least double that figure the proceeds from drug trafficking and have not completely pulled out of Propaganda materials by the end of 2018. other illegal revenue streams. Afghanistan, they have, to all intents Internet ISIS has the strongest positions in In response, ISIS has launched a prop- and purposes, already left the Afghan eastern Afghanistan, with up to 1,500 aganda campaign that aims to foment people to struggle on their own with Islamists operating in the Nangarhar a split within the Taliban. It accuses the country’s grave political problems, Theme web-sites Proliferation of rumors and Kunar provinces. There are about the Taliban leadership of betraying the to live with their devastated economy, 1,000 ISIS fighters in the north of the idea of a jihad against the occupying their rudimentary social sphere, and Messaging apps Religious education Sermons country, and another 1,000 are spread US forces, and of secretly discussing the hugely exacerbated drug traffick- between relatively small groups of the possibility of laying down arms ing problem. militants all over Afghanistan. ISIS with the Afghan government and with Afghanistan remains the world leader usually posts militants with experi- the US administration. in the production and trafficking of ence of fighting in the Middle East to ISIS leaders are also trying to reach hard drugs. In 2016, the area of opium extremists’ control. At present, the movement’s standing in the country’s nothing to prevent allied extremist the northern and western provinces. a “peace agreement” with the Taliban, poppy cultivation in the country rose Taliban are ramping up its propa- northern provinces. The target audi- organisations from bringing terror Up to 50% of its fighters are foreign- or at least to agree on their separate by another 10% to about 200,000 ganda campaign among the Afghan ence includes young males of Uzbek, to neighbouring countries. These ers, of which at least 70% hail from areas of control. So far, these attempts hectares, up from 183,000 hectares in population. That campaign relies on Tajik, and Turkmen ethnic origin. Even allies include the Islamic Movement Central Asia. have been unsuccessful. 2015. Opium production shot up by 43% traditional and electronic media out- though the Islamists currently have no of Uzbekistan, Ansarullah, and One of the reasons why ISIS has The ongoing instability in Afghanistan, to 4,800 tonnes from 3,300 tonnes in lets, as well as the religious leaders plans to spread their influence beyond Jundullah. been able to gain a strong foothold the pressing social and economic 2015. Since drug trafficking generates who share the Taliban ideology. These Afghanistan, it is clear that, should Especially worrying is the recent in Afghanistan is its formidable problems facing that country, and much of the extremist organisations’ efforts focus on strengthening the they come to power, they would do strengthening of ISIS in Afghanistan. financial resources, supplied mainly the vast recruiting pool present there revenue, their ability to wage war by the so-called caliphate in Iraq and suggest that ISIS will continue to on the Afghan government will be Syria, foreign sponsors — including build up its capability in Afghanistan. augmented even further. Tajikistan some Gulf states — and generated The Islamists will also use every In view of all these factors, there is ISIL peak activityТуркменистан areas by criminal activities in Afghanistan opportunity they get to make the no reason to expect a normalisation itself. Using these resources, as well Central Asian republics part of their in Afghanistan any time soon. The as its reputation — that the media “caliphate”; in fact, they are already government will have to spend all its helped to foster — as the world’s most working towards this. available resources on holding on to successful Islamist group, ISIS has We must acknowledge that the Afghan power, while the poorest sections of Pakistan managed to persuade some Taliban national army and police, despite their Afghan society will become even more Iran units to defect and join its ranks. Some numerical and technological advantage radicalised. The country will remain Kabul of the “ethnic” extremist organisations over the militants, are unable to turn a major source of the terror threat, have also declared their willingness to the situation around. The key reasons crime, and drugs exports, thereby work closely with ISIS: these include for this include failings in the planning destabilising neighbouring Central AFGHANISTAN the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, of counter-terrorism operations, poor and South Asian states. AREAS OF PEAK PROPAGANDA BY ISIL the Islamic Movement of Eastern training, a shortage of weaponry, and In these circumstances, all the Turkestan, Hizb ut-Tahrir, Lashkar-e- an inadequate level of social security countries that want to achieve a nor- Taiba, and several others. In recent offered to Afghan servicemen. As a malisation in Afghanistan must pool months, experienced fighters returning result, despite individual successful their efforts. We need to prepare our AREAS OF ISIL BUILDUP from Syria and Iraq have played an operations against the extremists in response options — including a mili- А. Haseeb ISIL leader in Afghanistan increasingly important role in ISIS Afghanistan, the security situation tary response — should ISIS begin to operations in Afghanistan. in general does not show any signs of actively infiltrate neighbouring states At the same time, ISIS suffered heavy improvement. from Afghanistan. It is also important losses in Afghanistan in 2016. As early US forces, and those of Washington’s to wage an effective information

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HANS-JAKOB SCHINDLER Coordinator of the ISIL (Daesh), Al-Qaeda and Taliban Monitoring Team, Areas of opium poppy growth and amounts UN Security Council of drug production in Afghanistan

Taliban strength has not diminished Haibatullah, Sirajuddin Haqqani, and number of areas, as a force they have been since the end 2016. Estimates of Taliban Mullah Zakir Qayum. downgraded by Afghan military operations numbers vary widely from different The Taliban’s overall income has not together with international air support 80000 250000 70000 interlocutors. However, on average, diminished, with narcotics contributing Despite repeated recruitment efforts 200000 60000 the assessments of several member around US $400 million annually, while a of ISIL in the north of Afghanistan over states put the number of fighters and further $600 million is derived from illicit the past three years, they have not yet 50000 150000 40000 supporters at around 25,000–60,000. The mineral extraction, taxation, income from managed to establish a fighting force 30000 100000 Taliban do not appear short of fighters, extortion involving mobile communica- there. Nonetheless, their recruitment 20000 funds, weapons, or ammunition. tions and electrical distribution, and efforts in the north are clearly a concern 50000 The Taliban set themselves the key external donations. for countries neighbouring Afghanistan

0 0 objective in 2016 of taking and holding a Interlocutors described the Taliban as to the north.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 provincial capital. They tried to do this in having provided an umbrella for all the With the ISIL (Daesh) and Al-Qaeda as 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Kunduz three times, Lashkar Gah twice, foreign terrorist groups operating in well as the 1988 sanctions regime, the Opium production (tonnes) Areas of opium poppy growth (hectares) Tarinkot twice and Farah once. On each Afghanistan excluding ISIL (Daesh), but United Nations Security Council and occasion, the Afghan military retained including Al-Qaeda core, Al-Qaeda in the international community have two control with coalition force support. the Indian Subcontinent, the Islamic global instruments at their disposal to Member states expect that this is going Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) as well counter this threat. to be a key objective for the Taliban again as fighters formally aligned to other Targeting both sanctions lists on those and propaganda campaign aimed continue our efforts to identify the way to avert chaos and the collapse in the coming fighting season. terrorist groups. This means they individuals who perform key functions at discrediting the Islamists’ ideas. forces ready for dialogue with the of Afghan statehood, and to lay the As in the past few years, the Taliban provide the space and protection for as facilitators, financers, IED designers, The leading role in such a campaign central government in the name of groundwork for stabilisation not only continue to control rural areas in signif- these groups to operate. or operational leaders enables the belongs to moderate religious leaders, peace in Afghanistan. We should also in Afghanistan but also in the wider icant parts of Afghanistan and therefore The connection between the Taliban and international community to disrupt the elders, and all reputable repre- work to prevent those forces from region. hinder the delivery of governance by the Al-Qaeda remains strong, with Al-Qaeda the activities of these terrorists and sentatives of civil society. We must getting closer to ISIS. That is the only Government of Afghanistan operatives being used in facilitation and therefore to counter the actions of the Taliban fighters have kept pressure on mentorship roles. respective terrorist groups. Afghan forces over the winter season In the north of Afghanistan, the IMU is As terrorism is a truly global phenome- and not retired over the border as has currently not a very significant fighting non, the effectiveness of the regime and been the case previously. factor. The group was weakened by the extent to which the sanctions list is The Taliban have been planning for the dissent among some of its fighters who adequately targeted requires the active next fighting season a few months ago. joined ISIL in the east of Afghanistan. participation of all member states in Several meetings were held during the Currently, member states assess that order to ensure that regional nuances of winter for the Taliban leadership in the group is not strong enough by itself the threat are properly addressed. this regard. to represent a clear and present risk to The Monitoring Team continues to Despite these preparations, several Central Asia. work to provide Security Council interlocutors of the Monitoring Team In terms of overall numbers, member members with regular updates on reported some dissent among senior states assess that currently the group the developing threat these groups Taliban, which indicates friction commands between 1,500 and 4,000 pose to the international community between the remaining factions that fighters primarily located in Nangahar, and to raise awareness concerning the support Mullah Mansur and Mawlawi but they move back and forth across functioning of the sanctions regimes Haibatullah. The reasons for this dissent the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and and how these instruments can be primarily revolve around Haibatullah’s therefore the number is difficult to effectively employed as part of national ability to lead militarily and argu- assess precisely. Interlocutors of the counter-terrorism strategies. ments over finances. According to the Team estimate that the majority of ISIL As the Monitoring Team, we stand ready assessment of these interlocutors, the fighters in Afghanistan come from the to actively support member states in Taliban leadership is currently fractured region and are not Afghan nationals. this regard. between elements loyal to Mawlawi While ISIL tried to establish itself in a

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COLONEL-GENERAL ABDUL HAMID HAMID LIEUTENANT-GENERAL SHAVKAT NORMATOV Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan First Deputy Minister of Defence — Chief of the General Staff of the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Allow me, on behalf of the General Staff An undeclared war has been underway in in their struggle against other terrorist Against a global upsurge in terrorist neighbouring countries in the region. supporters, having suffered significant of the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Afghanistan for four decades, with inno- groups in pursuit of one’s own goals activity, the fight against, and the pre- According to various estimates, losses during the military operations Defence, the leadership of the Islamic cent citizens of our country becoming its cannot end well. vention of, the spread of, international 45,000–50,000 militants are operating conducted in the eastern provinces by Republic of Afghanistan and on my own victims every day. The Armed Forces of Afghanistan are in terrorism and extremism, phenomena in Afghanistan, who, having captured the Afghan and coalition forces, are behalf, to welcome everyone here and We confront multiple terrorist organisa- the forefront in the face-to-face fight that have received huge support in a significant part of the peripheral gradually leaving their territories and thank the leadership of the Ministry tions, such as the Taliban, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, against terrorists, suffering great losses. certain Middle Eastern countries such as territory, are attacking large cities, moving to other parts of the country. of Defence of this friendly country for and other small and large groups Therefore, the legal and legitimate Syria and Iraq, remain among the current district and provincial centres. I would like to stress that the mili- inviting the Afghan delegation to take engaged in arms and drug trafficking Government of the Islamic Republic of priorities of the international community. The observed tactics of their military tants of Central Asian origin who are part in such an important event. and supported by certain political and Afghanistan needs effective support Given recent events in the above- operations suggests that they are currently members of the Taliban and In an environment where the world as intelligence circles in some countries and assistance from the countries of mentioned countries, where people currently trying to seize as many ter- “Islamic State” may well become the never before faces multiple challenges of the region. With their help, training the region and from the world powers. from different Central Asian republics ritories as possible across the country. main challenge and source of security and needs security and stability, the camps are set up to recruit uneducated We thank the Russian Federation for fight in the ranks of multiple terrorist The relocation of armed groups from threats for the countries in the region. VI Moscow Conference on International young people. Then, after being brain- their recent efforts to establish peace structures, it cannot be ruled out that Afghanistan’s southern and eastern It is quite possible that their number Security, convened by the Ministry of washed, they join the ranks of terrorists in Afghanistan. some of them will try to return to their regions to its northern provinces, and may also increase due to the arrival of Defence of the Russian Federation, can and conduct subversive activities and It’s high time for all progressive forces homeland. the growing tension in the immediate radical Islamists from Syria and Iraq, serve as an effective step towards the massive killings of children, women, and to combine their efforts to fight inter- We note that Afghanistan, where today vicinity of its borders with the Central and the “Afghan foothold” will become consolidation of progressive forces in the elderly. Terrorists blow up bridges national terrorism and eradicate this conditions are preserved for radical Asian countries are particularly for them a transfer site in the Central the fight against international terrorism and schools, loot public property, and inhumane evil throughout the world. Islamists to stay and increase their num- worrying phenomena. In this regard, Asian direction. and towards the achievement of stability, engage in arms and drug trafficking. In I strongly believe that we will defeat ber and fighting capabilities, could be one the situation in the northern part of Under these conditions, the Afghan peace, and tranquility in the region and doing so, they destabilise the situation terrorism if we act together. of the probable routes for their return. Afghanistan has recently aggravated security forces, which currently bear throughout the world. in the region. I wish you fruitful cooperation in the fight As you know, for over 35 years considerably. the main burden of countering the I hope that at this conference we will I state with confidence that one should against terrorism in Afghanistan and in Afghanistan has been one of the most The main destructive forces operating armed opposition after the withdrawal come to an understanding on consolidat- not divide terrorists into good and the region. unstable states in the world. The in the northern provinces now include of the majority of the foreign contin- ing our efforts to address the challenges bad. Bitter experience shows that the Good luck at the conference. situation in terms of security within the Taliban, “Islamic State”, the Islamic gent, remain the guarantor and the facing the whole world. support and financing of some terrorists its territory has not improved, which Movement of Uzbekistan, the East key tool for preventing the situation in gives rise to particular concerns in Turkestan Islamic Movement, Jamaat Afghanistan from deteriorating. neighbouring countries. Ansarullah and Jundullah. Taking this into account, Afghanistan Political instability, a low level of In our opinion, however, the main is an important country in terms of socio-economic development in the destabilising force remains the Taliban ensuring stability and security in the country, as well as the vigorous activ- movement, whose ranks, according Central Asian region. ity of various radical extremist and to various estimates, include at least However, continuing instability in terrorist groups remain the key factors 2,000 people from the Central Asian Afghanistan demonstrates that the that negatively affect the situation in countries alone. conflict is still far from its final reso- Afghanistan. In this regard, given the increased lution. There is no doubt that currently Under these conditions, the Afghan capacity of the Taliban, it should not the Afghan government needs external crisis gets worse and worse each day, be ruled out that the Taliban can help assistance, including assistance main- to such an extent that it is becoming their militants of Central Asian origin taining security in the country. “chronic.” The impact of challenges and penetrate the countries of Central Asia. Speaking about the process of rec- threats such as terrorism, extremism An important role in destabilising the onciliation of the opposing parties in and drug trafficking on Afghanistan’s situation in Afghanistan, mainly in Afghanistan which internal and foreign neighbouring states is also increasing. the country’s north, can be played by actors repeatedly tried to launch, we As we can see now, a low-level the Afghan wing of the terrorist group can point to the fact that it was unsuc- confrontation between the opposing “Islamic State”, known as the Khorasan cessful and has reached a dead end. groups is still underway in the greater Emirate, which currently continues to In this regard, restoring peace and part of Afghanistan, which naturally covertly mobilise, recruit, and increase stability in Afghanistan as soon as poses a threat to Central Asian states, its combat potential in the country. possible is the most important factor in since there is a danger that various This situation is also aggravated by maintaining and strengthening security destructive forces could seep into the the fact that currently “Islamic State” in Central Asia.

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At the same time, the main efforts of formation of a new model of interstate In conclusion, I would like to note that TAALATBEK MASADYKOV the stakeholders in the settlement of cooperation in the region, which requires countering terrorism and extremism Expert (Kyrgyzstan) the intra-Afghan conflict should be the similarity or coincidence of strategic in all their manifestations will remain focused on addressing this problem using interests of both the Central Asian one of the priorities in the interaction political rather than military means. countries and a number of other states. between the regional security services. Taking this into account, all opposing As our head of state notes, “for all of us, At the same time, it is important to con- forces must have a strong political terror has no borders and nationalities; tinue close coordination of approaches in First of all, allow me to thank the organ- neighbouring countries in Central Asia. from Central Asian countries are will and readiness for the mutual and this again demonstrates that we the field of counter-terrorism by devel- isers of this very important conference on The international community has invested trained. These centres receive regular concessions and compromises that need to take very harsh measures on oping and establishing effective forms international security, the Government billions of US dollars in the stabilisation technical and financial support, and could lead the crisis in this country this matter”. of interaction with the countries in the and the Ministry of Defence of the and reconstruction of Afghanistan, and groups of terrorists are transported out of deadlock. In this regard, it seems appropriate region to ensure stability and security, Russian Federation, for the invitation continues to do so, but peace and stability in an organised manner from the Against this background, the Uzbek to more actively engage the world as well as by strengthening cooperation and opportunity to speak. have not been secured. southern provinces of Afghanistan to side is ready to support Russia’s initia- powers and the states in the region, between the regional security services in Currently, when globalisation has Of course, there are many different the northern areas bordering on Central tive to expand the circle of participants as well as international and regional order to forestall and prevent possible embraced almost all aspects of life in opinions as to why it cannot be achieved. Asia, and local and foreign militants in the negotiation process, which could structures, in the settlement of the infiltration by militants into Central most countries of the world, when new Some experts say there is no coordination move almost freely across the northern play a positive role in the settlement situation in Afghanistan, with the Asian countries from Afghan territory technologies, including military ones, of efforts undertaken by all actors in the regions of the country. of the Afghan crisis. central coordinating role to be played in a timely fashion. are developing so rapidly and informa- international community to stabilise the A few years ago we all said that This option implies the beginning of the by the United Nations. tion is available in a few seconds to the situation in Afghanistan; other experts “Islamic State” would have no future overwhelming majority of the world’s advocate various conspiracy theories, in Afghanistan, and now it is already a population, issues of regional and just as the population of Afghanistan reality. Extremists from the former Soviet international security are relevant as do themselves. Union, who claimed to be members of never before. Addressing these issues In Central Asia meanwhile, we are wit- various terrorist groups, such as the is an urgent task for all countries across nessing these dangerous processes in Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the the world, even though their positions Afghanistan become more acute, despite Islamic Jihad Union, East Turkestan, on certain issues may differ. Of course, official assurances from Kabul that the Ansarullah, now all pledge their alle- this assumes that global peace and situation is under control and that the giance to “Islamic State”. stability are indeed the goal of the Afghan security forces (the national army The security forces of Afghanistan, world’s leading powers. and national police) are taking every Pakistan, the United States and NATO For almost the last two centuries, effort to defeat terrorist organisations claim to be doing their best to fight Central Asia and the Afghanistan- such as “Islamic State” and other groups. “Islamic State”, the Taliban, and other Pakistan region have thrice become an The security and intelligence services of extremist groups. However, these and arena in which the geopolitical interests Afghanistan, Pakistan, the United States, other groups not only remain undefeated, of the world’s leading powers intersect. NATO, Central Asian countries, Russia, but on the contrary gain strength and This includes the Anglo-Afghan wars in and other states concerned are well control more and more territories within the late 19th and early 20th centuries. aware of the situation in Afghanistan, Afghanistan. This includes the invasion by Soviet particularly in its northern provinces. I would like to point out that there are troops of Afghanistan in 1979–1989. While previously we said that extremists’ different groups that operate under the And, finally, this includes the invasion training centres were situated in Pakistan, name “Taliban”. There is a so-called by US and NATO troops of Afghanistan in the border areas with Afghanistan Taliban that help “Islamic State” and from the end of 2001 to the present controlled by independent tribes, now participate together with it in combat day. Have the world’s leading powers such training centres are appearing in operations against the Afghan security achieved their declared and undeclared Afghanistan’s the northern regions. forces. There are also representatives goals as a result of these operations? According to various Afghan sources, of the traditional Taliban movement, I think most likely the answer is — no. in the provinces of Faryab, Sar-e Pol, who fight against “Islamic State”. So far, all this happened and is still Samangan, Baghlan, Kunduz, Takhar Given that the traditional Taliban happening in the Afghanistan-Pakistan and Badakhshan, not to mention the oppose the spread of “Islamic State” region, and so far it is mostly the eastern provinces of Afghanistan, in Afghanistan, it would be expedient Afghan people who have been bearing there are already some bases and for the official government in Kabul the brunt of these processes. training centres where extremists and for key actors in the international In recent years, we have seen that from different countries, mainly from community to launch negotiations the conflict in Afghanistan will not de- the former Soviet Union, are trained in with the Taliban to achieve a peaceful escalate, and on the contrary expands, using explosives. In Faryab and Sar-e settlement of the internal conflict. This destabilising one province after another Pol provinces there are even training would both help to stabilise the situ- and threatening to destabilise the centres for women, where women ation inside Afghanistan and to more

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effectively counteract “Islamic State” mujahideen in Pakistan in 1979–1989 to population of these countries and moti- NANDAN UNNIKRISHNAN and other terrorist organisations not overthrow the official regime in Kabul vate some individuals to join terrorist Vice President and Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (India) only in Afghanistan, but also beyond supported by the Soviet Union, after organisations. Taking into account the its borders. its overthrow, forgot about this affair, natural integration processes in the Western experts and even some experts which for all this time, has existed Eurasian countries, this can contribute from the former Soviet Union claim and continues to exist independently, to further spread of terrorist activity in that Russia exaggerates the threat creating a headache for Afghanistan and Eurasia and beyond. Before I begin my presentation, I would talks on Afghanistan in Moscow, which weapons the Afghan National Army would emanating from the Afghanistan- for Pakistan. Now this headache could Currently, Russia plays a leading role in like to thank the organisers for the privi- Washington decried as a “unilateral be able to deal with the twin threats of the Pakistan region in order to frighten and easily spread to Central Asia. counteracting the spread and activities lege of participating in such a prestigious Russian attempt to asset influence in the Taliban and IS. And here, I would agree with control the countries of Central Asia. Several years ago, at a summit of the SCO of terrorist organisations, not only within event. Also, I would like to note that while region”. US military officials also allege what Mr Karzai said earlier in the day, that I not only disagree with this opinion, heads of state, President of Afghanistan the CSTO, but also outside the Eurasian I am going to speak about the Indian that Russia is seeking to “undermine NATO merely increasing the number of US troops but on the contrary I would say that Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai said that space. If we really want local conflicts in position on Afghanistan, unlike some on efforts” to achieve peace in Afghanistan by a few thousand would not substantially Russia does not even disclose all the the Central Asian countries were also different regions of the world to remain this panel, I do not represent the Indian and allege that Moscow is providing the change anything. The Afghans are not information available about the real responsible for the fact that people from under control and not to grow into a government. Hence, mine is merely a lay- Taliban with arms. Russia vehemently happy with the United States, but nor situation and the threat coming from those countries were engaged in terrorist global conflict, the leading world powers man’s understanding of the official Indian denies these charges and views them with are they rushing to embrace the Russian the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. activities in Afghanistan. I do agree with together with the countries involved in position mixed with my understanding of apparent disbelief and non-comprehension. initiative, since they still perceive it as an As an international UN official, I spent this view to the extent that unresolved these processes should move from words the situation in Afghanistan. But irrespective of who is right in that attempt to impose a solution on them. more than 12 years in the Afghanistan- socio-economic problems, corruption of to practical cooperation with the purpose I will start by noting that there is no doubt particular debate, what is undeniable is Given this situation India has some very Pakistan region, dealing directly with those in power, and the lack of a system- of preventing, localising and eradicating among Indian policymakers that continued the emergence of a great power rivalry. difficult choices to make. It has consist- the problems of political settlement atic approach and effective interaction the activities of terrorist organisations. instability in Afghanistan presents a major This has further contributed to the devel- ently opposed any contact with the Taliban of the conflict in Afghanistan. It seems between the security forces in certain It is high time for an open dialogue threat to neighbouring regions — not only opment of the storyline that Daesh is a outside the conditionalities accepted by to me sometimes that some agencies countries of Central Asia indeed create instead of confrontation, and it is high Central Asia but also, among others, to “greater threat” to stability in the region the international community at the UN. of the leading NATO countries, having an environment conducive to the growth time for practical action instead of South Asia. It is without doubt imperative and therefore it is prudent to establish The second is the old problem that goes organised training centres for the Afghan and spread of radical ideas among the political rhetoric. that Afghanistan is stabilised. But while contacts with the “nationalistic” Taliban back to the origins of the Taliban. In other this diagnosis is probably correct, the pre- to develop an effective counter to Daesh. words, that neither the Taliban nor Daesh scription of treatment is not helped by the Russia, China, and even some in Iran seem are home-grown Afghan organisations. lack of clarity about what is envisaged as to have bought into this line. This may also Both share a similar ideology and have the final outcome of either this treatment be not because these countries see Daesh their roots outside Afghanistan. The or the stabilisation efforts. as an immediate greater threat, but as Taliban have, however, grown sufficient Recent developments in Afghanistan have a policy of hedging bets just in case the roots inside Afghanistan to warrant the further complicated matters and make any Taliban insurgency succeeds, given that question if it is a terrorist outfit or an assessment of the correct road to stabili- the Taliban currently appears to have the insurgency movement. sation more difficult. The first development momentum on its side. If the Taliban do Therefore, India would, I believe, tread is the emergence of IS-Khorasan/IS-K/ succeed and captures power, it would a cautious path, hopefully driven by its Daesh in Afghanistan and its apparent bat- indeed appear a prudent policy to have national interest. This may require more tle with the Taliban for domination. It has established links in place prior to that event. intense military and technical cooperation revived the debate about “good terrorists” It further complicates matters that the with the Afghan government, but will and “bad terrorists” and has intensified position of the Afghan Government, which probably stop short of putting boots on the competition for influence among the everyone officially recognises, is radically the ground. India has repeatedly stated powers involved in Afghanistan. Ironically, different. They feel that a precondition to that it would support an Afghan-driven the Taliban, weakened by infighting, have any peace talks should be a Taliban com- reconciliation and reintegration process improved its negotiating potential, and mitment to a ceasefire prior to the talks. based on a transparent and inclusive strengthened the internal glue that binds Anything else, they feel, would amount to process. Maybe, as some analysts have the group together. Incidentally, Indian legitimising violence by an outfit that is suggested, support for the High Peace policymakers do not think that, at this currently recognised by the UN as terrorist. Council is a place to start. Once upon a time stage, Daesh constitutes a significantly It would also help if there was a semblance Russia, Iran, and India were on the same greater threat than the Taliban. of consensus on what the end-state is side in the struggle against extremism The second is the emergence of a new that the international community wants to taking over Afghanistan — a reflection rivalry among global powers in Afghanistan achieve through peace talks. The current of the convergence of their national sparked by uncertainty over US policies proposed solutions based on some kind of interests. Given that their interests are towards the country. This is reflected by principles of federalism are unacceptable still apparently the same, I hope they end the unexpected US use of the “mother of to both the government and the Taliban. up on the same side once again. all bombs” in Nangarhar province, the US Meanwhile, the Afghan government feels refusal to participate in the multilateral that with improved funding, training, and

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Korea has come under fierce interna- increasingly acquiring a hybrid nature. International terrorism remains a major Opening of the Second Day of the conference tional pressure for pulling out of the They encompass not only the military, challenge for the collective security sys- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and but also the social, economic, cultural, tem. As the world becomes globalised, for being overly energetic with its nuclear and information spheres, which are so does terrorism. The terrorist outrages programme. But that step by Pyongyang essentially becoming new theatres of in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the is little different from Washington’s own war in their own right. recent tragic events in London, Berlin, SERGEY NARYSHKIN decision to pull out of the ABM Treaty, Conflicts in the ideological and infor- Brussels, Paris, and Stockholm, and the Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation which was taken unilaterally, and mation spheres are especially intense. latest cowardly terrorist attack in Saint based solely on US own interests. In The current phase of the ideological Petersburg prove that not a single region, other words, we are once again facing a confrontation is becoming as heated as and not a single country in the world can situation where everything is permissible the confrontation during the Cold War, if be regarded an island of tranquility. No for Jove, whereas the bull is permitted not more so. The major difference is that one is safe from terrorist attacks. only to be a victim. this time around, the ideology is being The entire world has become a danger- The maniacal attempts to show “who’s peddled not by the Eastern Bloc but by zone. The terror threat is becoming part equality and mutual consideration of the administration in Washington gave a in control” on the peninsula and to prove the Western elites — or rather, that part of people’s daily lives, especially in big entire range of each other’s interests. glimmer of hope that the situation in whose military potential is the greater of them that is clinging to the neo-liberal cities. At least, that is what the terrorists We firmly believe that this is the only the Middle East would finally begin to will only lead to a further escalation of globalist approach. The agenda they are are trying to tell as, as are those who approach that can uphold the global and return to normal. But the recent US tensions. History has shown time and pushing is one of intrusive globalisation, irresponsibly aspire to use terrorism for regional balance of power, and maintain Tomahawk strike against the airbase again that sabre-rattling can trigger a multiculturalism, which eulogises all their own selfish ends. The multifaceted constructive, good-neighbourly relations in Syria used by the Syrian government very real armed conflict, all the way up sorts of deviations. Things have become nature and complexity of international between countries and peoples. Any forces for their anti-terrorist effort has to an exchange of missile strikes. The so grave that the very idea of a majority terrorism is another reason why standing The importance of our dialogue — or aspirations to impose one’s own will prompted us to question the sincerity international community and the major in public and social affairs is becoming up to that challenge individually is rather, as recent events show, the on another under various pretexts will of President Trump’s election promises regional actors must not allow such a marginal. The majority can no longer impossible. pressing need for it — is growing every lead to nothing but further descent of the to pursue a coordinated international turn of events. They should work together defend its rights in the face of aggressive We all understand what a difficult period day. As recently as the beginning of this international system into chaos. That is campaign against “Islamic State”. All we towards reducing international tensions minorities; it is forced constantly to bend we are living in. We also understand that year, politicians and military leaders the reason for many, if not all the ongoing have seen is shows of force that haven’t and keep the situation from deteriorating over backwards and to apologise for its this period of transition has not yet run in countries around the world still international crises, and for the human been coordinated with anyone, for exam- beyond the point of no return. own existence. its course. International instability entertained some hope that a realistic suffering caused by these crises. ple, blowing up of one of mega-bombs Nor are conditions along our own There is no reason to expect the con- continues to grow, exacerbating the old approach would prevail on the interna- This is especially clear as we look at the in Afghanistan. If that was a signal to western borders entirely tranquil. The frontation in the information sphere to challenges and threats, and giving rise tional arena. Many believed that common example of the Middle East and North ISIS, then the signal has clearly failed main reason for this is the hectic military subside in the foreseeable future. On to new ones. To see those challenges off, sense would finally take the upper hand, Africa. The region has never been a para- to produce the desired effect. And if it preparations by NATO. Major build-up the contrary, the “battle for hearts and the entire international community must and that countries would work side by gon of stability. It recent years, however, was not, then the obvious question is, of the alliance’s military infrastructure minds” will become even more heated, take concerted and energetic action. side, on the basis of mutual respect it has become a hostage to other powers’ whom was that signal addressed to, and along the border with Russia has and spread to new arenas. It will include Such cooperation must be pursued and trust, towards resolving regional geopolitical games. Reckless attempts to what end? essentially been designated as a key a widespread dissemination of so-called by diplomats, public institutions, the conflicts, and together look for answers by the West to reshape to its own tem- There have also been other worrying and long-term NATO priority. Another fake news, innovative techniques of military, law-enforcement agencies, and to such pressing challenges facing us all plate such countries as Afghanistan, Iraq, signs of Washington’s growing pref- serious threat to regional and global subtly shaping public opinion, and the secret services. as international terrorism. Libya, and Syria — which all have their erence for a unilateral force-based stability is the decision by the NATO attempts to blur the line between the I am confident that our meeting in Moscow So far, these hopes have not come to own distinct and specific nature — have approach in international politics. For allies to recognise cyberspace as one real and virtual reality. In this post-truth will be an important step towards deeper pass. With regret, we have to say that only brought chaos and violence. They example, the United States and several of the domains of operations. They have, world, the objective of strengthening international cooperation in strength- our partners in the West have failed to have upset the fragile internal balance of its closest allies have returned to the to all intents and purposes, legalised information sovereignty is becoming ening global and regional security and overcome inertia and relinquish their in the region, and have cost millions of rhetoric of confrontation in their dealings planning and conducting cyber-attacks just as pressing as strengthening the fighting international terrorism. usual egoistic approach to world affairs. ordinary innocent people — children, with Iran. They are trying to meddle in against the potential adversary. national defensive capability or the They carry on with their attempts to women, and the elderly, who wanted Turkish domestic affairs, and to foist an Modern warfare and conflicts are national economy. pursue dialogue only from a position nothing to do with politics — their lives. artificial political settlement arrange- of strength, often with no regard for ISIS, the quasi-state that has existed ment on Libya. There are also great risks international law. for only a few years — which is a few posed by the current state of the Middle Let me say right from the start that, used years too many — would never have Eastern settlement. As tensions in the against Russia, such tactics will never emerged in the first place, were it not region mount, the current deadlock in bear fruit. Any attempts by the West for an external influx of resources and the negotiating process may push the to put pressure on our country, and to support. That quasi-state is largely a participants in the Palestinian–Israeli incorporate Russia into its own version result of our Western partners and their dialogue towards trying to achieve their of the international system as a junior regional allies being indiscriminate in goals by means of violence. partner, are absolutely unacceptable. their choice of methods to achieve their The situation on the Korean peninsula We will cooperate only on the basis of goals. For a time, the arrival of the new also remains extremely alarming. North

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Moderator

Alexander Dynkin President of the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician 2017 /Asia-Pacific: balance of interests or a military standoff?

MAJOR-GENERAL SHAO YUANMING build strategic confidence. We must development, and pursues a defensive and joint exercises, thereby helping to Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department under China’s prioritise taking crisis situations under military policy. On 3 September 2015, strengthen shared security for all. We Central Military Commission control, and preventing their escalation President of the People’s Republic of pursue closer military cooperation with into conflicts; we must pursue our mutual China Xi Jinping officially announced the SCO states, and together maintain and comprehensive benefit. that the numerical strength of the peace in Central Asia. We have held six China has already proposed the idea of Chinese armed forces would be reduced unofficial meetings with the ASEAN denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, by 300,000 servicemen, thereby demon- states. We are involved in practical simultaneously with creating a peace strating the Chinese people’s goodwill cooperation as part of the ADMM-Plus mechanism for that peninsula. As a first and aspiration to peaceful development. and the ASEAN Regional Forum. We step, China has also proposed a simul- China’s military and defensive forces have also launched a counter-terrorism after another. Cold War thinking and the always contributed to peace across the taneous suspension of North Korea’s are adequate to its needs and inter- coordination mechanism with the policy of “might makes right” are fuelling world, and to stability in the Asia-Pacific nuclear weapons and missile activities, national status. Their priorities are to armed forces of Afghanistan, Pakistan, geopolitical rivalries, territorial disputes, region. We advocate the concept of and of the large-scale military drills by protect Chinese sovereignty, national and Tajikistan. China will continue to and growing ethnic and sectarian divi- shared, comprehensive, and sustainable the United States and the Republic of security, and development interests, as look for new cooperative formats, and sions. The main trend of major powers’ security based on cooperation, and we Korea. The Chinese proposal takes into well as to uphold peace and stability to promote practical international I am grateful for this opportunity to take defence policy in every region is evident are prepared to build a community of account the concerns of all sides and is in our region and globally. military cooperation. part in the VI Moscow Conference on and is expressed in efforts to strengthen common destiny together will all the both practicable and sensible. At present, The Chinese armed forces pursue The Chinese armed forces are actively International Security. I would like to alliances to ensure a dominant position other countries. thanks to the joint efforts by China and comprehensive international ties and engaged in international peacekeeping thank our Russian colleagues for the on regional issues. Again we witness an We advocate building a new type of the ASEAN states, the situation in the work to strengthen strategic confidence. activities, both regionally and globally. invitation and for the effort that went escalation on the Korean peninsula and international relations. We must protect South China Sea has become much They have already established military More than 30,000 Chinese peacekeep- into organising this important event. in Northeast Asia. the basic clauses and principles of the calmer. Through negotiation and con- cooperation with more than 120 countries, ers have contributed to 30 different Yesterday we discussed global and The international terror threat is UN Charter, relinquish the Cold War men- sultation between the parties involved in which makes an effective contribution peacekeeping operations under UN European security issues, and outlined becoming ever more serious. Terrorism tality, and desist from the use or threat South China Sea issues, we are achieving to security and stability. As part of our auspices since 1990. In fact, China new approaches to international security in the Middle East is tightly intertwined of force. Any hegemony or “joint control new results. Nevertheless, that process comprehensive strategic cooperation and ranks first among the permanent UN cooperation. Now I would like to outline with unresolved problems in Syria and of individual states” is unacceptable. is not going as smoothly as we would partnership with Russia, China pursues Security Council members in terms of the Chinese position on the global Iraq. ISIS and other terrorist groups We must adopt a shared approach that have liked, which is why all parties must closer military cooperation with the its peacekeeper contribution. China also situation and in the Asia-Pacific region. are spreading their influence into new is based on mutual respect and security undertake additional efforts and try to Russian armed forces, and together we makes a major contribution to providing Our world is in a state of dynamic growth, countries and regions. Terrorist attacks guarantees; we must reform the global prevent certain countries from provoking work to uphold global strategic stability. security along the maritime shipping comprehensive reform, and profound are becoming an increasingly regular governance system in order to build further disputes. We are also developing our relations with routes. More than 80 Chinese ships restructuring. Peace, development, occurrence, with grave implications a new type of international relations, We advocate both symptomatic meas- the armed forces of the United States have been involved in such operations cooperation, and mutual benefit are the for global and regional security. We with an emphasis on cooperation and ures to address the security problems, in order to build confidence, as well as in the Gulf of Aden and off the Somali priorities of this era. On the whole, the condemn the recent terrorist attacks in mutual benefit. and measures aimed at the very roots to avert or contain various crises. We coast since 2008; these ships have international situation remains peaceful, Saint Petersburg and Paris. Terrorism is We advocate a shared security achieved of these problems. The causes of ten- pursue cooperation with the armed forces escorted more than 6,300 vessels, half but we face some difficult problems and becoming a common enemy of humanity through joint efforts. The interests of sion, disorder, and growing differences of the neighbouring states based on the of which were foreign-owned. China will factors of uncertainty. There are also in its entirety, and we are facing the all counties, and the security of all in some regions boil down to poverty, principles of “closeness, sincerity, mutual continue to do all it reasonably can to numerous security challenges in the difficult task of defeating it. countries, coincide to a large degree. disparity, and inequality, which create benefit, and tolerance”. We are also fulfil its international responsibilities and Asia-Pacific region and on a global scale. The arms race shows no sign of abating; No single state — even the strongest — a fertile breeding ground for radical working to build our military relations contribute to peace and development. The global economic downturn has led this poses a major challenge to global can cope with these complex security ideas. We must take both symptomatic with the armed forces of European states. In a few days’ time, on 9 May, we will to growing signs of crisis in the area of strategic stability. New military reforms challenges on its own. We must find and profound measures, and achieve We maintain our traditionally friendly ties mark Victory Day over Nazi Germany. The security. The global economy is looking are taking place on a global scale; arms broad common ground on our security lasting security through sustainable with countries in Africa, Latin America, people who fought in that war know very for new drivers of growth; disparities and military hardware are acquiring new interests, improve multilateral secu- development. China has proposed the and the South Pacific. We are constantly well how difficult it is to achieve peace. in development are widening, and capabilities, such as high precision, smart rity mechanisms, strengthen various Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st expanding our circle of friends. The people who won that war know that competition for unevenly distributed technologies, and automation. Outer platforms for dialogue and cooperation, Century Maritime Silk Road initiatives. To The Chinese armed forces pursue inter- peace must be protected with all our resources is gaining momentum. The space and cyberspace are becoming properly address the problems we face, that end, we have established the Asian national military cooperation in the strength. We must be firm and decisive process of globalisation has run into the new arenas of strategic competition. and turn this crisis into new opportuni- Infrastructure Investment Bank and the interests of shared security. In recent in bearing our responsibility to protect major headwinds. Poverty and the The deployment of the missile defence ties and new drivers of growth. Silk Road Fund. All these initiatives years, they have been working with peace in the whole world, and to build associated problems of starvation, system by certain states fuels tensions, We advocate a resolution of all differ- share one goal: cooperative development. the armed forces of other countries in a better future. disease, and societal discord inevitably undermines global strategic stability, ences and disputes through dialogue China has adopted a peaceful path of such areas as defence policy, training, lead to social, political, and security and poses global security problems. and consultation. We must fully take problems. We must address these Humanity has but one shared home. into account the rational concerns of problems, which have arisen as a result We are all living in the same “global all parties through the open exchange of the development of humankind itself. village”. Every citizen of that village has of opinion, dialogue and consultation; The Cold War mentality still persists; the responsibility to protect peace and resolve our differences to avoid damage new hot-spots are springing up one prosperity in our shared home. China has to key interests of other countries; and

/134 /135 2017 /Asia-Pacific: balance of interests or a military standoff?

RASHID ALIMOV organisations in the fight against over the past five years to counter drug on guaranteeing political stability, Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation international terrorism. The format of trafficking has resulted in the seizure enhancing security, expanding trade and regular meetings of top officials from of 69 tonnes of deadly heroin, to give economic cooperation for joint develop- the CIS, the CSTO, and the SCO makes just one example. This volume accounts ment and prosperity of SCO nations from it possible for participants to be on the for about 14% of global figures. Joint the Arctic to the Indian Ocean and from same page on the key issues of regional actions by the competent authorities the South China Sea to the Barents Sea. security and stability. Similarly, the SCO also facilitated the seizure of more than This year, on 8–9 June, the capital of the seeks to interact with other important 75 tonnes of the precursors used to pro- Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, will regional organisations and forums in the duce this narcotic poison. Nevertheless, host the next summit of SCO member Asia-Pacific region, including ASEAN and we believe it is possible to effectively states. The leaders of our countries will coordinated measures are developed and recognise no boundaries. Given this, CICA among others. counter the drug threat only if the entire formulate consolidated assessments of and collective efforts are taken. cooperation within the SCO is aimed at Illicit drug production and trafficking international community continues to the international security situation in The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation identifying and preventing terrorist and continue to be among the most serious consolidate their efforts. In this regard, the context of the development of the makes a significant contribution to extremist crimes. security threats that undermine interna- we attach special importance to the situation in the region and in the world ensuring regional peace, security, and The SCO is not a military alliance, but tional peace and stability. Comprehensive continuation and expansion of close and outline current directions for further First of all, let me thank the Ministry of stability. Over the past 15 years since an uncompromising struggle against work to combat the drug threat is among interaction between the SCO and the improvement of cooperation within the Defence of the Russian Federation for the its formation, the SCO has demonstrated the terrorist threat dictates the need to the priorities of the SCO. In this regard, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. SCO in countering current challenges convocation and excellent organisation its effectiveness in the fight against the develop and strengthen mechanisms for the SCO’s Anti-Drug Strategy and the Over one and a half decades, the and threats. Undoubtedly, this topic of this conference on security, a most forces of “three evils” — international decisive eradication of terrorist activities. Action Programme for the next five years Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has was, is, and will remain the focus of the important international forum, and for terrorism, extremism, and separatism. A special role in this field is assigned are under development. built one of the world’s largest regional Organisation’s activity. the creation of conditions conducive to The SCO’s founding members have tested to the Peace Mission, joint counter- The focused work of SCO member states cooperation systems with an emphasis our joint work. and successfully apply a partnership terrorism exercises of the armed forces Currently, as the world is going through a model of interstate cooperation based of the Organisation’s member states. difficult era of profound transformation, a on the principles of the “Shanghai Held regularly since 2007, the exercises broad exchange of views on topical secu- spirit”, which enables a well-coordi- contribute to the joint drilling of the rity issues is of particular importance. nated response to conventional and practical skills needed when conducting Recently, calls have been voiced for the new threats and challenges within the military operations against terrorist creation of a more equitable, polycentric purview of the Organisation. groups in a variety of conditions and model of the world order, which takes Ensuring regional security and stability, in the use of various types of weapons into account the interests of every state. countering terrorism, separatism, and and equipment. It could be based on the common fate extremism, as well as combating drug Joint exercises foster an ongoing pro- of humanity, mutual respect, mutually trafficking and cross-border organised fessional dialogue between militaries beneficial cooperation, and the rejection crime were and remain among the SCO’s of the SCO member states, improve of confrontation and conflict. top priorities. skills, and strengthen the morale of the It is clear that an objective need has To facilitate effective cooperation in this personnel. Such measures are taken arisen in the international environment extremely important area, a large set in the framework of comprehensive to find new stable pillars of international of international legal documents has efforts aimed at countering attacks cooperation, which should strengthen been developed and is successfully used by terrorist groups. the mechanisms of global governance within the Organisation. We share the view that, in the current based on the norms of international law, Consistent practical work is undertaken conditions, a response to emerging the principles of equal and indivisible within SCO mechanisms such as meet- challenges and threats to global peace, security and the mutual consideration of ings and summits of the secretaries of security and sustainable development interests. Such an approach would help security councils, defence ministers, is possible only by building collective foster the conditions for a new stage in ministers of internal affairs and public efforts of the international community. the development of the world community security, and anti-drug services. The SCO is open to this joint work. and international relations. The SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure SCO member states attach particular Security in the 21st century cannot be (RATS) operates effectively, with a mech- importance to strengthening cooperation ensured by one party only. Terrorism anism for multilateral counter-terrorism with the United Nations, its specialised and violent extremism, drug trafficking cooperation created and successfully institutions and agencies, primarily with and arms trafficking have closely inter- tested within this structure. the United Nations Office on Drugs and woven with each other, have acquired However, the terrorist threat will not Crime and the United Nations Security a transboundary character and a decrease. Unjustified terrorist attacks Council Counter-Terrorism Committee. global scale of interconnectedness. It have now acquired a transnational We assign an important role to the is possible to counteract them only if character: they have no national features comprehensive interaction of regional

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DELFIN LORENZANA smaller economies. However, with its China’s nine-dash line has no historical Second, all nation states must respect Secretary of National Defence of the Republic of the Philippines population of more than 600 million basis. China ignored the ruling and even the rights of their neighbours. Countries and highly educated and productive stepped up its reclamations. Meanwhile are expected to uphold common norms populace, ASEAN can exert its collec- other claimant countries are starting to in accordance with international law. tive influence if the members can come build their military. Countries in the region should observe together and agree. Which brings us now to the heart of the principle of reciprocity and rein in What drives national interests in the this discussion: balance of interest or their conduct based on how they expect Asia-Pacific region? There are many military standoff? to be treated in return. drivers. Population growth impels a In a presentation yesterday I heard a Third, countries in the region should con- country to compete for resources it familiar term — zero-sum game. And tinue diplomatic engagements through could, if not managed properly, lead engagement with Asia-Pacific countries cannot produce. New-found affluence that is exactly what is happening in bilateral alliances, trilateral arrange- to violent confrontation. One of these since joining the East Asia Summit in can also goad a country to equip itself the South China Sea. Some players ments, and multilateral platforms, and is water resources which affects the 2011. Aside from its relationship with with the wherewithal to protect its are trying to play the zero-sum game treat engagements with the superpowers so-called Mekong countries in the Vietnam in the Soviet era, Russia is only interests. Fear of domination rooted at the expense of other claimants. It is as a cornerstone of regional stability. Indo-Chinese peninsula, over sharing just starting to build close and lasting in past experience under colonisers is the classic all-or-nothing strategy. But A state’s alliance with another state First and foremost, allow me to express the Mekong river resources. The fates relationship with ASEAN and other Asia- another factor. Recapturing past prestige is it necessary? Is it even beneficial to all should not preclude the development my appreciation to the Russian Ministry of displaced or stateless people are Pacific countries. It has the stature and and glories could be another factor. parties in the long run? This zero-sum of new partnerships or the deepening of Defence for inviting me, for the hos- also a continuing concern, such as the the resources to be a force in the region. Countries that cannot hope to stand up game would lead everyone into an arms of existing relations. pitality and the excellent arrangements Rohingyas in Myanmar. Japan, once the second largest economy, to other dominant powers seek and forge race and finally to a military standoff. The Lastly, areas of contention must be accorded to me and my delegation, and But the “elephant in the room” that could may have slipped down the ranking alliances with stronger ones to protect danger of this is miscalculation and a turned into a venue for cooperation. the opportunity to share our views on engulf the whole region in a conflagration but it is still a formidable force not their interests collectively. possible major armed conflict. Esteemed For example, with regards to the some of the pressing security issues in if not handled correctly, is territorial only because of its huge economy and Now, let me go back to the elephant in colleagues, let us learn from history. overlapping claims in the South China the Asia-Pacific region. conflict — specifically the South China the high productivity of its people but the room I mentioned earlier at the start Two world wars were fought in the last Sea — disputes could be transformed The topic “Asia-Pacific: balance of Sea disputes. I will return to this later. because it was once a world military of my remarks — the South China Sea. century killing hundreds of millions of into shared development of resources. interests or a military standoff” is very The principal players in the region are power and some observers agree that it The South China Sea is vital to all the people because leaders sleepwalked into However, the region must be able to use timely, especially in the face of recent those who, by the sheer weight of their could again be one if situation warrants Asia-Pacific countries and to the whole conflict. I argue that achieving balance internationally recognised frameworks, developments in the Asia-Pacific region. economy and military could exert the especially if its security is threatened. world. More than 5 trillion dollars’ worth of interest among nations is the better such as those under UN auspices, to This is my first time attending this con- most influence. South Korea is a medium player in the of goods passes through it every year. alternative. All nations argue that what determine entitlements as a basis for ference and before coming here I went The United States remains the principal region with its robust economy and large There are five claimants in the South they are doing is for the good of their the sharing of resources. We also owe over the presentations and discussions power in the region despite the view armed forces but this is backed by a China Sea dispute: China, the Philippines, people. But let us remember that every it to the future generation to protect the from the 2016 Moscow Conference on posited by some experts that it is on the medium size population. The existence Vietnam, Malaysia, and Taiwan. The resource we expend for arms is one fragile ecosystem of the South China Sea. International Security. I found that there decline. It is still the only country in the of US bases in South Korea and the problem started when China claimed vir- less resource for the development of On North Korea, it behooves the three are threads that run as a constant theme region that could project its formidable frequent visits of a US carrier group tually the entire South China Sea with its our societies. Again we face the age-old superpowers (the United States, China, through these discussions, especially as military power anywhere in Asia. It has greatly increase its power. so-called nine-dash line laying claim to choice between the ploughshare or the and Russia) to come together to diffuse they relate to the Asia-Pacific region and alliances with the Philippines, Japan, North Korea, whether we like it or not, areas covered by the 200-nautical-mile gun, butter or bullets. rising tensions through meaningful and how they are being addressed by nations Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, has become a military power if only due exclusive economic zone awarded by the Amidst the interplay of power relations constructive dialogue with Korea. individually or collectively. I am glad to and Australia; and military cooperation to its nuclear arsenal that has made its UNCLOS to littoral nations in 1983. China and competing interests, may I suggest Let me end my remarks with a Chinese see that everyone agrees that security with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. near neighbours very nervous. This has invokes the historical basis for its claim. the following to attain a balance of proverb I lifted from the speech of challenges have become global and that Such alliances and cooperation are not become a huge security concern for all It has since reclaimed shoals within the interests in the Asia-Pacific region? honourable General Chang Wanquan, it will require the concerted efforts of borne out of a changing of the guard Asia-Pacific nations, especially since 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic First, all parties must follow a rules- Minister of National Defence of China every nation to address them. Some of in this region. It has stepped up efforts its leader has been displaying unpre- zone of other claimants. The Philippines based approach tosettling disputes. No at last year’s Moscow Conference on the common denominators are: terrorism, to maintain if not to enhance these dictability and warlike rhetoric. North brought the issue to the Permanent Court nation should cherry-pick agreements International Security: “Those who rely illegal drugs, cyber-crime, transnational relationships. It is expected to remain Korea has been testing ballistic missiles of Arbitration, which, after two years and rulings to follow, especially if they on moral values will prosper, those who crimes, climate change, natural disasters, as such in the foreseeable future. lately and issuing threats prompting the of deliberation and research, ruled that are signatories to these agreements. rely only on force will eventually fail”. and human trafficking. Unfortunately my China, whether we like it or not, is an United States to deploy a carrier group country, the Philippines, has suffered ascendant military power and could be in the waters off the Korean peninsula. most from these problems especially on par with the United States in a short The United States has also deployed terrorism, illegal drugs, and natural time if it continues the current phase of anti-missile defences, something that disasters in the recent past with dev- its military build-up. It is also the second has not been well received by China. astating consequences for our people. largest economy. Because of this new- Except for Indonesia, which has the Aside from those enumerated above, found power it has started to flex its largest military (and economy) among there are other non-security challenges muscle to the alarm of its neighbours. the 10 ASEAN countries, the other faced by each Asia-Pacific nation alone, Russia, another superpower, is also an ASEAN members individually are minor or with neighbouring countries, that Asia-Pacific nation. It has increased its players due to their small military and

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COLONEL-GENERAL CHANSAMONE CHANYALATH in many countries worldwide. The ter- (HMA) within the framework of the Before ending my talk, I would like to Minister of National Defence of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic rorists’ network is expanding in many ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus. briefly summarise that since the Asia- parts of the world and they are using We, the co-chairs, will do our utmost to Pacific region is being confronted with sophisticated fighting strategies that play a part in addressing the issue of various security challenges, as I have have made it difficult and challenging to unexploded ordnance in the region and previously mentioned, we are required tackle them. Hence, military-to-military in the world. to double our cooperation, promote good dialogue, especially between and among Lao PDR is a country with a substantial relations and enhance dialogue not only the superpowers and the concerned amount of explosive remnants of war, between our militaries but also with all nations, will be an important way of which has become a major hindrance concerned bodies to collectively explore addressing and dealing with this security to our national economic development. ways to address such security threats as a community of peace, stability, and mine action. We also have a new EWG issue that confronts our world. Therefore, co-chairing the EWG on HMA and challenges effectively and efficiently. security for its peoples’ prosperity. in the new cycle, 2017–2020, and that Lao PDR may be a small country, but will be an important opportunity for Lao Russia is a country that plays a crucial ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting or is the Cyber-Security EWG. we are a peace-loving country, and PDR to build our capacity in the field role in maintaining security of the Asia- ADMM is the highest defence and security The ASEAN Chief of Defence Forces would like to see every country able to of demining. It is also fundamentally Pacific region and the world. Hence, I do cooperative mechanism, and has been Informal Meeting is the highest defence live in peace, security and prosperity. significant to be a co-chair with Russia hope that Russia will do its best to help First and foremost, it is my pleasure and one of the key drivers contributing to forum for dialogue and consultations Therefore, we in Lao PDR have done our since it is a country that has substantial address the security threats that the great honour to visit Moscow, Russia’s maintaining peace, stability, and security on mutual concerns and interests, best to participate in activities at both experience and expertise on unexploded region and the world are facing in order very beautiful capital city again and to in the region. Within the ADMM frame- especially on ASEAN military coop- regional and global levels to contribute ordnance. I hope that the Ministry of to ensure that the people of the Asia- attend the VI Moscow Conference on work, a number of defence cooperative eration, and aims to enhance mutual to maintaining and promoting regional Defence of the Russian Federation will Pacific region and the world can live in International Security. I would like to mechanisms have been established such trust, confidence, and understanding and global peace, stability, and security. assist and support the Lao People’s peace, stability, security, and prosperity. extend my sincere appreciation to the as the Direct Communication Link in the between and among ASEAN Defence Between 2017–2020, Lao PDR and Army in the field of demining and ensure Ministry of Defence of the Russian ADMM Process. This is a crucial platform Forces, something that is considered Russia will co-chair the Expert’s Working the successful completion of our HMA Federation for inviting me to participate to facilitate communication between a vital factor for the enhancement of Group on Humanitarian Mine Action co-chairmanship task. in this important conference since it is and among ASEAN Defence Ministers interoperability and cooperation among regarded as a significant platform to in case of emergency, to ensure that such ASEAN member states. contribute to the maintenance and pro- situations are addressed in a collective One more important mechanism is motion of peace, stability, and security and timely manner, and to avoid any the ASEAN Regional Forum or ARF of the Asia-Pacific region and the world. misunderstanding or escalation of the comprising 27 members. It serves as a The topic that I am going to share problem. In addition, there is also the platform for preventive diplomacy and with you today is “Military-to-Military ASEAN Centre of Military Medicine which confidence-building measures between Dialogue as a Factor of Stability”. As we officially launched in April last year and among the member countries. know, the military plays a vital role in and ASEAN Militaries Ready Group on These are manifestations of the promoting national, regional and global Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster significance and contribution of peace, stability, security, and prosperity. Relief (HADR). These mechanisms will military-to-military dialogue to aid During an emergency or crisis involving play an important role in deploying mil- the process of building mutual trust, both traditional and non-traditional itary assistance forces in a coordinated confidence, and understanding, which security challenges, the military often manner to conduct HADR operations and serves as a fundamental foundation has a leading role in helping to address help the affected country to cope with for cooperation towards the promotion the security challenges as they arise, disasters quickly and effectively. of national, regional and global peace, and in mitigating the situation. In addition to ADMM, we also have the stability, security, and prosperity. Recently, there have been a lot of events ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting- While some parts of the world enjoy happening around the world, including Plus with eight dialogue partners peace and prosperity, others are facing those contributing to the national, namely Australia, China, India, Japan, security threats and challenges such as regional, and global good. For example, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, terrorism, extremism, natural and man- global trade has grown rapidly and the Russia, and the United States. These made disasters, human trafficking and flow of goods has expanded unprece- dialogue partners play a crucial role in drug trafficking, tension in the Korean dentedly as a result of advances and capacity-building for the ADMM-Plus peninsula, maritime security, and many renovation in technology, while globali- member countries through meetings, others. Such threats and challenges have sation makes our world seems smaller. seminars, and Field Training Exercises become a major obstacle to regional and For ASEAN, the most outstanding of the Experts’ Working Groups or EWGs global progress and development. phenomenon was the establishment of covering humanitarian assistance and With regards to terrorism, particularly the ASEAN Community on 31 December disaster relief, military medicine, peace- the ISIS group, it continues to pose a 2015. ASEAN demonstrated unity and keeping operations, counter-terrorism, major threat to regional and global peace commitment in order to build ASEAN maritime security, and humanitarian and security as exemplified in attacks

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LIEUTENANT-GENERAL PHAM HONG HUONG mechanisms of regional and international Vietnam Peacekeeping Centre (in May Russian Ministry of Defence in organising Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Vietnam People’s Army cooperation, seeking to enhance their 2014) to improve the quality of man- the conference and share the opinion effectiveness in strengthening security agement and personnel training to meet that it is an opportunity for the armies and resolving conflicts. the highest standards of participation in of our states to exchange views and Since 2014, Vietnam officially participates UN peacekeeping operations, Vietnam propose new methods and initiatives in peacekeeping operations under the sent 19 officers of the People’s Army of for countering common security chal- auspices of the United Nations, demon- Vietnam to participate in UN missions lenges in an effective manner. I am also strating responsibility and peacefulness, in South Sudan and the Central African confident that the conference will make to contribute to preserving peace and Republic. Vietnam continues to build the a significant contribution to enhancing ensuring global security and stability necessary resources and capabilities cooperation between the armed forces wars. Regional cooperation mechanisms, and enhancing the role of the United together with the international commu- for its more active participation in UN of the participating countries in the especially ASEAN, have also greatly Nations and multilateral mechanisms nity. Vietnam prioritises the expansion peacekeeping operations in future. future for the sake of peace, stability, contributed to the maintenance of peace in ensuring security and stability in the of its participation in UN peacekeeping At the end of my report, let me express and common development. and stability. region and in the world. The armed forces operations. Having established the my appreciation for the efforts of the When it is impossible to resolve should be used only in pursuance of a UN I highly appreciate the topics suggested conflicts or confrontations by political Security Council resolution recognised for discussion at this conference, and means, the use of military power will by all the parties concerned, based on at the same time I share the opinions be a method of intimidation, coercion an impartial attitude and the principle voiced by my colleagues who spoke to peace, and, in extreme cases, military of not using force. earlier. I believe that the issues raised intervention aimed at ending the conflict, Since 2006, the ASEAN Defence Ministers are especially relevant in the current restoring peace, security, and stability Meeting (ADMM), attended by the heads environment of the worsening situation in a single state as well as in the entire of the military ministries of the ASEAN regarding international and regional region. Amid an unstable international member states, has proven to be a security, and taking into account, chiefly, environment, there is a growing trend model of effective cooperation in the the increasing security challenges, both towards using armed forces and military defence sphere in Southeast Asia. With conventional and unconventional. power to resolve disputes and conflicts. the introduction in 2010 of an expanded Speaking on the topic of “The role of In recent years, the world has witnessed meeting format (ADMM-Plus), which military power in international relations”, numerous local and civil wars, which not also includes representatives of eight I would like to share some views. only had a negative impact on security dialogue partners, ASEAN has strength- In recent years, the global and regional and stability in the countries directly ened its leading role in the mechanism security situation has tended to become involved in the conflict, but which also of consultation and military cooperation more complicated, and there are numer- destabilised the situation in the region at the highest levels in the Asia-Pacific ous hot spots that could deteriorate into and in the world. region. ADMM-Plus aims to provide a armed conflicts and local wars. Every The Socialist Republic of Vietnam is a platform for participants to exchange day, the number of unconventional country that has lived through many opinions and views on regional security challenges that threaten the security wars, and therefore the Vietnamese issues; increase the level of mutual and stability of all countries, and that people value peace and stability as understanding, clarify defence policy, cannot be addressed by any state necessary for building and developing build trust between states; cooperate on alone, multiplies. The involvement of the state. Vietnam pursues a national the development of mechanisms and pol- all states and all forces, including the defence policy that is peaceful, defensive icies; share experience and information; military, is required to contain existing in nature and which embodies the con- discuss various areas of interaction and confrontations and conflicts, and also cepts of not using force or threatening implement them in practice in the form to encourage cooperation to address to use force in international relations; it of simulation exercises and combined common security problems, especially refuses to join any military alliances or manoeuvres. Perhaps modern history under existing conditions. alliances with other states against third has rarely witnessed a situation when Experience shows that in recent years countries. Vietnam always advocates the the heads and representatives of the political tools have been significantly resolution of differences, disputes, and defence ministries of 18 states gather, improved and strengthened in their role conflicts through political means and not to discuss war, but to share views as a means of containing conflicts and peaceful negotiations, in line with the UN and discuss real military cooperation for wars, ensuring control, and maintaining Charter, legal provisions, international the sake of maintaining security, peace, peace, as well as global and regional regulations and conventions, based on stability, and common development, as security. Throughout its history, the the principles of justice and respect for happens within ADMM-Plus. United Nations has adopted thousands the legitimate interests of all states. Currently, Vietnam continues its active of resolutions for resolving conflicts and Vietnam supports the idea of expanding participation in organisations and

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MOHAMAD MALIKI BIN OSMAN the regular conduct of multilateral this age where security challenges are problem could become endemic to the Senior Minister of State for Defence of the Republic of Singapore exercises, the defence forces of FPDA becoming increasingly transboundary Asia-Pacific region, and severely threaten member nations have been able to share in nature, and are moving into non- our security and economic development. professional knowledge, build confidence, traditional realms, such as cyberspace Singapore is certainly not immune to and enhance regional cooperation. The and the threat of information warfare. such terrorist threats. For the first time Shangri-La Dialogue is an annual meet- Yet we must not forget that the global in a decade, Singapore’s terrorism risk ing that drew more than 600 delegates in threat of terrorism is at an all-time high. level has been raised in a recent report June 2016, including 30 ministers from Within the Asia-Pacific region, Islamic by global consultancy Aon. In August 35 countries, and which has facilitated extremism and terrorism are becoming 2016, a plot to launch a rocket attack constructive dialogue on regional issues. an increasingly clear and present threat. on targets in Singapore by ISIS-linked defence spending has been increasing. and constraints, open more trusted And around the globe, the 35-member There are almost 30,000 foreign fighters elements was foiled by the Indonesian Defence spending in Asia grew by 4.6% channels of communication, and reduce Indian Ocean Naval Symposium or IONS in Iraq and Syria according to UN reports authorities. In response, Singapore has annually over the 2012 to 2016 period, the risk of miscalculations and mistakes. with its focus on maritime security and in 2016, and more than a thousand of adopted a multi-pronged approach, while defence spending in North America Singapore has long supported such cooperation in the Indian Ocean; the these fighters are from Southeast Asia. by building resilience and maintaining and Europe fell by 2.7% and 3.4% annu- multilateral engagements in the region. Sulu Sea Patrols involving Indonesia, The threat of returning foreign fighters social cohesion within our multi-racial I would first like to thank Minister ally respectively over the same period. In The ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Malaysia and the Philippines, which aim looms large, with ISIS’ territorial losses and multi-religious society. Proactive Shoygu and the Ministry of Defence of fact, defence spending in the Asia-Pacific (ADMM) and ADMM-Plus, the only to combat human trafficking and terror- in the Middle East prompting it to change and preventive measures are taken by the Russian Federation for their kind region is projected to climb by 23% from formal defence dialogues in the region ism; the Malacca Straits Patrols, where its tactics and encourage decentralised our Mufti and organisations such as invitation to Singapore to be part of the 2016 to more than US $500 billion by held at Defence Minister level, are prime the littoral states of Indonesia, Malaysia, attacks in home countries instead. This Singapore’s Religious Rehabilitation VI Moscow Conference on International 2020. Such rising military modernisation examples of multilateral platforms that Singapore and Thailand undertake air has manifested in recent attacks such Group to counteract ISIS propaganda and Security. It is truly an honour for me to carries with it the increased risks of an help build a stable regional security and sea patrols and intelligence sharing as in London, the Philippines, Indonesia, rehabilitate individuals who have been speak at this third plenary session. arms race, miscalculation, and conflict. architecture. A key value proposition to combat piracy in our waters; and the Sweden and Saint Petersburg. radicalised. But beyond our own borders, First, let me speak about the importance Nationalistic sentiments in the region of the ADMM-Plus is its ability to bring 21 Pacific nation-member Western Pacific Returning fighters may also leverage greater international cooperation and of multilateralism. Our topic today is a have also become more prevalent, and senior leaders from its members’ militaries Naval Symposium or WPNS, are other domestic discontent in their home coun- coordination are needed to address timely one. Global dependence on the governments may feel compelled to take together through its Experts’ Working examples of multilateral groupings that tries to set up bases in the Asia-Pacific the problem of transnational terrorist Asia-Pacific region for manufacturing, tougher and more assertive positions Groups, or EWGs, for regional dialogue have evolved to tackle transnational region. ISIS seeks to establish a cali- networks. Multilateral platforms that trade, and shipping has risen. The Asia- with other countries to satisfy their and practical cooperation, despite challenges and threats. phate in Southeast Asia, and has been enable countries to cooperate on Pacific region is home to some of the domestic publics. differences on particular issues such One example of the progress made aided by the rising number of regional counter-terrorism efforts, including intel- largest economies in the world, and It might be naïve to suggest that win- as territorial disputes. Currently, the by such platforms is the Code for extremist groups. Southeast Asia saw ligence-sharing, will become increasingly accounts for more than 50% of the global win solutions exist for all competing ADMM-Plus has seven EWGs covering Unplanned Encounters at Sea or CUES. a rise in ISIS-linked plots and attacks vital to our ability to effectively deal with economy. In 2015, China alone produced interests, but we need to ensure that humanitarian assistance and disaster It was first adopted by the 14th WPNS in 2016, with ISIS claiming responsibility terrorist threats in the region. about 80% of the world’s air-condition- we do not fall into the trap of lose- relief, maritime security, counter-terrorism, in 2014, and Singapore is looking to for at least three successful attacks Singapore remains optimistic that the ers, 70% of its mobile phones and 60% of lose situations like military standoffs. military medicine, peacekeeping oper- get all ADMM-Plus countries to adopt in Malaysia and Indonesia, and with Asia-Pacific region will continue to be its shoes. Trade within the Asia-Pacific History is full of such lessons, from the ations, humanitarian mine action and it as well. The Republic of Singapore another 21 planned attacks foiled by a reliable engine for global economic region accounted for more than half of Konfrontasi, or Indonesian-Malaysian cyber-security. In 2016, four field training Navy is also seeking to develop a code authorities. The Philippines, Thailand, growth, but all countries in the region the world’s global maritime trade in 2015, confrontation in the 1960s that lasted exercises were held involving all EWGs, of conduct for submariners to enhance and Myanmar are also facing increasing need to continue lending support to not and this is expected to continue to rise in four years and inflicted hundreds of including the first ADMM-Plus Maritime underwater and submarine operations levels of terrorist-linked activity, with just sustaining, but proactively growing the future. Many of the world’s strategic casualties on both sides, to the recent Security and Counter-Terrorism Exercise safety through multilateral naval forums last month’s edition of ISIS’ Rumiyah multilateral platforms that facilitate shipping lanes traverse the Asia-Pacific Cambodian-Thai border dispute from in May 2016 co-hosted by Singapore, like the Submarine Operational Safety magazine even devoting a section to the engagement and regional dialogue. region, and half of the world’s oil supply 2008 to 2011 that also resulted in mili- Brunei, Australia, and New Zealand, Conference or SMOSC and the WPNS. It is southern Philippines. Just two weeks Only then will we have the chance to passes through the Straits of Malacca. tary and civilian casualties on both sides which involved 3,500 personnel from critically important for us to proactively ago, Philippine security forces thwarted develop long-standing relationships The nature of our globalised economy of the border. The Korean War caused all 18 ADMM-Plus countries, including engage in these multilateral platforms an attempted kidnapping plot through built on trust and cooperation, and be means that the Asia-Pacific region more than a million casualties and the United States and China. Singapore to manage differences, appreciate each clashes with Abu Sayyaf militants in ready to tackle the regional challenges requires peace and stability in order to cost around US $100 billion, yet when also supports the proposed holding of an other’s space, and find common ground in Bohol. If not dealt with urgently, this that lie ahead of us. continue driving global economic growth. it ended, the borders between North ASEAN-China Maritime Exercise, which Yet, even though there is so much at stake and South Korea had scarcely changed. would build mutual trust and confidence, in this region, or perhaps I should say Fortunately, we have moved on from and reflect China’s commitment and because there is so much at stake in this these events with the realisation that willingness to engage the region. region, regional flashpoints have become we only stand to lose from such armed The Five Power Defence Arrangement or more acute. Geopolitical uncertainties conflict, and that we need to make a FPDA comprising Singapore, Malaysia, and unresolved regional disputes have conscious effort to facilitate multilateral the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and heighted the risk of miscalculation and interactions and military-to-military Australia, has also played an integral conflict. The Asia-Pacific region is one engagements, in order to gain a greater role in the regional security architec- of the only regions in the world where appreciation of each other’s worldviews ture over the last 46 years. Through

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ANATOLY TORKUNOV Meanwhile, there is a growing naval the Chinese and American generals, make small and medium-sized countries Rector of MGIMO University arms race in the region, which has but also diplomats, politicians, and feel safer, without having to apply to significantly outpaced the build-up of public opinion leaders still regard the the major military powers for security ground forces. In 2013 China launched opposing party as the enemy whose assurances. In other words, a multilat- its first aircraft carrier, which is now every step is dictated by the logic of eral approach would prevent a deepening being upgraded. Its second carrier was a zero-sum game, and therefore poses military-political confrontation in the launched just a few days ago. By 2020, a threat to national interests. framework of hostile military blocs. Chinese forces will receive an additional Meanwhile, the military security system The Asia-Pacific region is unique in that 70 conventional and nuclear-powered in the Asia-Pacific region has retained the its countries have managed to build a attack submarines, 84 destroyers old foundations laid during the Cold War. broad and inclusive network of regional India — are building up their military them. One way or another, this problem and frigates, two aircraft carriers, and It is based on bilateral treaties between institutions in recent decades. capability, adding to the uncertainty of affects the relations between Japan and many other ships and boats. China’s the United States and its regional allies: These include such security institutions the regional situation. China, Japan and Russia, China and neighbours, such as Japan, South Korea, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the In a move that upsets the military bal- South Korea, China and Vietnam, and Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia, Thailand, and Taiwan. That format is ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting with ance in the region, the United States has South Korea and Japan. Amid the com- are trying to keep up with that pace. sometimes described as a hub-and- Dialogue Partners (ADMM-Plus), and the The Asia-Pacific region remains an area decided to deploy its THAAD ground- plex and often confusing situation with This naval arms race, spurred by regular spoke system, the United States being East Asia Summit. Importantly, dialogue of relative stability compared with the based ballistic missile defence system in the regional security system of military escalations in tensions over disputed ter- the hub, and its treaties with strategic is pursued not only in the official format, turmoil in the Middle East and the break- South Korea. That system’s radars have alliances, some nuclear powers that have ritories, leads to an aggravating armed allies in the region the spokes. Such a but also in the track two (experts) and down of security cooperation between sufficient range to monitor Chinese and no part in these maritime disputes may confrontation and has an adverse impact system is the complete opposite of NATO, track one-and-a-half framework. The the key actors — especially between Russian airspace. nevertheless be dragged into a conflict. on the international security situation. which is built as a network alliance, and Council for Security Cooperation in the Russia and the United States — on the Neither is the Asia-Pacific region immune Barring a few notable exceptions, inter- It engenders a vicious circle: on the whose organisational structure hinges on Asia-Pacific (CSCAP), the Shangri-La global level. The region’s economy keeps to the problem of Islamist extremism. national land borders are clearly marked one hand, tensions over the territorial the principles of equal participation of all Dialogue, and meetings of ARF Experts growing at a healthy rate. Development Southeast Asian states with a large on maps and reflected in international conflicts in the South China Sea and the members and collective decision-making. and Eminent Persons — all these venues and closer regional and transregional Muslim-majority population are the agreements. By contrast, maritime bor- East China Sea, which have been ongoing To strengthen its own positions in East create a culture of dialogue on security connectivity remain part of the agenda worst-affected. ISIS operatives are active ders often remain uncertain. According for decades, are preventing the parties Asia, Washington is now trying to bolster issues in this highly diverse region. for all parties involved. in Indonesia and Malaysia. Between to some estimates, approximately half involved from normalising their relations. the role of its strategic allies in the The complaints being voiced about these Nevertheless, the main regional security 2012 and 2014, close to a hundred the existing mileage of maritime borders On the other, the problem of maritime region, primarily Japan and South Korea. institutions — including charges that they problems (the Korean problem and the nationals of Southeast Asian states is disputed. borders cannot be resolved in a climate Strategic partnership with the United take too long to discuss pressing issues, territorial disputes in the South China were recruited by ISIS to form a separate East Asian nations are reluctant to take of tension and mutual mistrust, with States’ “number one ally” in the Asia- and that their results leave much to be Sea) remain unresolved. In fact, they are ethnic Indonesian-Malaysian battalion their territorial disputes to courts such confidence sorely lacking. Pacific region, Japan, has a special role desired — do not mean that the region becoming structurally more complex. As of militants fighting in Syria. as the UN International Court of Justice. Another important trend that has to play. There is a clear recent trend can do without them. On the contrary: time goes by, they are tending to spiral All these regional security challenges That is because the UN International emerged in the Asia-Pacific region towards a stronger military component with the growing number of regional to whole new levels. For example, the form a complex regional situation. Their Court of Justice prioritises the existing is the rise of a new bipolarity. Many in the allied commitments undertaken by security challenges, many of which are situation on the Korean peninsula is combination may well jeopardise future body of treaties and agreements, which processes in the region are unfolding in Tokyo as part of its security treaty with transnational, coordinating international now exacerbated by the deployment economic growth and development in are all but absent in the region. Most of the framework of Sino-American con- the United States. Japan also appears efforts is as important as ever. of elements of the US missile defence the Asia-Pacific region. All the parties the parties involved in these conflicts frontation, which is continuing unabated to be gradually moving away from peace Russia is a constructive actor in the system in South Korea, as well as the involved should therefore adopt new prefer to argue their case on the basis despite the deep integration of the two clauses in its own legislation stipulating multilateral security cooperation mech- DPRK’s aspiration to take its nuclear regional security approaches that of their historical claims. For example, countries’ economies. That bipolarity, its peaceful status. We are talking not anisms in the Asia-Pacific region; in no programme to a new technological are built on a consensus rather than they use old maps drawn even before the which remains clearly confrontational, only about abolishing Article 9 of the way does it deepen regional polarisation. level. Meanwhile, territorial disputes confrontation. signing of the first border agreements; is giving rise to a Pacific arms race, and Japanese constitution, in which Japan On the contrary, Russian proposals are in the South China Sea show no sign Another cause for serious concern is they cite historical documents, etc. One stymies any attempts at reaching an relinquished war as an instrument of aimed at consolidating regional efforts to of abating; military spending in the the absence of an effective system of such is the nine-dash line shown on understanding on arguably obvious mat- resolving international disputes, but provide security in the Asia-Pacific region. region is on the rise; and there are major providing security of sea lanes and Taiwanese maps dating back to 1947. ters, such as the peaceful resolution of also about a number of corollary laws, In particular, Russia is a staunch differences between the United States maritime communications in the Asia- Under those maps, almost the entire the Korean peninsula issue. For example, principles, and agreements. advocate of the principle of equal and and China over how to interpret freedom Pacific region. The main threat relates to South China Sea is controlled by China. according to the Stockholm International Russia regularly draws attention to indivisible security in the Euro-Atlantic, of navigation: Washington insists that territorial disputes in the East China Sea Another example is the old chronicles Peace Research Institute, the combined the fact that only a multilateral regime Eurasian, and Asia-Pacific regions. This freedom of navigation applies not only and the South China Sea, which could suggesting that the Senkaku/Diaoyudao defence spending of the Asian nations involving all the countries in the region is reflected in the 2016 edition of the to merchant shipping but to warships potentially deteriorate into a full-scale Islands became part of the zone of rose by 5.4% in 2015, whereas the global can help reduce tensions and structural Russian foreign policy concept. With as well. The countries involved in these armed conflict. What is at stake in Chinese economic interests some four average was only 1%. instability in East Asia. The parties Chinese backing, Russia proposed an disputes appear unwilling to seek a these disputes is not really the terri- hundred years ago. One should empha- The new bipolarity is reproducing involved should think about a system initiative to build a transparent and equal resolution on a bilateral or multilateral tories themselves, as most of them are sise, however, that such arguments have the mental stereotypes of the Cold of cross-treaties binding together all security architecture in the Asia-Pacific level. In the wider region, the three major barren rocks, but the colossal economic no legal weight, and are used primarily War, which are still strong in the the regional states and enabling them to region at the East Asia Summit in Brunei, naval powers in the Indian and Pacific wealth — fishing rights, hydrocarbons, for their psychological effect to create foreign-policy establishments of both monitor and verify each other’s compli- 2013. Given the persistent problems and oceans — the United States, China, and various minerals, etc. associated with the required public sentiment. China and the United States. Not only ance. Incidentally, such a system would dividing lines in the region, Russia’s

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proposal to build a universal security The problem of the militarisation of the region, the ambiguous interpretations architecture not based on blocs could Asia-Pacific region, ongoing chronic of some countries’ steps, new military serve as the foundation for resolving international conflicts, and new trans- programmes, etc. regional differences. national threats, all require a higher level Years of practical cooperation, includ- We also believe that the experience of of coordination between the various ing joint efforts in the ARF framework, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation defence ministries. suggest that even good personal in developing confidence-building In particular, this cooperation can and contacts between the representatives measures, securing national borders, should be the answer to the problem of of military and diplomatic structures of and preventive diplomacy has yet to a lack of strategic confidence in the Asia- the Asia-Pacific states can help to create be fully appreciated in the Asia-Pacific Pacific region, something regional leaders a cooperative international climate. region; indeed, that experience could be highlighted a few years ago as one of We believe that Russia is prepared to used by the countries in the region to a the key regional issues to be resolved. make a valuable contribution to building very good effect. Dialogue between the defence minis- such dialogue on security issues and As regional security problems become tries, and their participation in military on responding to various emergency more complex, the Asia-Pacific states transparency and confidence-building situations in the region. can hardly expect these problems to be measures in the region could alleviate effectively resolved without building a many concerns — including those over productive military-to-military dialogue. the growing defence spending in the

/148 Plenary Session Military-to-military engagements: regional aspects

Moderator

Veronika Krasheninnikova Zvezda TV channel presenter, member of the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation 2017 /Military-to-military engagements: regional aspects

JOSEPH BETI ASSOMO security. It has indeed emerged as a against our countries and its devastating the momentum that groups such as Minister-Delegate at the Presidency of the Republic of Cameroon clear expression of a process of the humanitarian consequences. They admit- Boko Haram and Daesh are capable in Charge of Defence violent destabilisation of states on a ted that the war against Boko Haram of deploying. This concerns the origin, global scale, a prism through which it was a “war forgotten by the international environment, funding, and support of must always be perceived. community” in light of the reluctance of these groups. We believe that if clear Beyond these national efforts, I am the international community to act more and firm responses are provided by the delighted at the results achieved by vigorously, compared with the spirited international community, terrorism the Multinational Joint Task Force of and determined conduct of operations would be checked. Global security is a the LCBC, which, after two years of against Daesh in Iraq and Syria. challenge to all and sundry. The respon- waging war against the insurgents, While one may take some comfort in the sibility to tackle this challenge lies with my country, namely cross-border crime, With three other countries involved in has now become an effective and rel- fact that it is never too late, on behalf the greatest and most powerful nations, maritime crime in the Gulf of Guinea, the Multinational Joint Task Force of evant sub-regional model of a defence of my government, a member country of considering the technical and technolog- organised crime, and poaching. Thanks the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), mechanism. Discreetly, and without the Lake Chad Basin Commission, I would ical means that these countries possess to robust action by the government, namely Nigeria, Niger, and Chad, we have vast resources, it has succeeded in nonetheless like to avail myself of this to detect, track and destroy terrorists. these scourges have been kept at a succeeded through intense pressure, to destabilising the terrorists and has rostrum to express my country’s deep I reaffirm the fact that global security I sincerely thank the chair and the bureau very low threshold. drastically lessen the freedom of action become an example of a success story in gratitude to the international commu- must be ensured, as advocated by the of this important international gathering My speech particularly focused on the afforded Boko Haram, to neutralise it Africa and the expression of our states’ nity and to friendly states, particularly President of the Republic of Cameroon, for giving me the floor to speak on behalf aggression perpetrated against my tactically and technically, and to chase determination to eradicate this scourge, Russia, for the multifaceted support His Excellency Paul Biya, who is accus- of the Cameroonian delegation in Central country by the terrorist group Boko it out of its traditional strongholds. whose negative consequences on the provided not only to ensure that Boko tomed to saying: “A global threat requires Africa, which I have the privilege of Haram since 2013. I had described to you Today, the enemy has been considerably local economies and the people are Haram is recognised as a threat to world a global response”. My country has leading here in Moscow. in great detail the horrors it had caused weakened, but is still very dangerous. far-reaching. These successes are the security, but over and above all else, for resolutely embraced this logic through I feel particularly honoured to have the Cameroonian people in the northern Indeed, faced with numerous military outcome of enhanced political and mil- it to be eradicated forthwith. The new its untiring contribution to international been invited to take part in the part of the country, at the convergence setbacks, Boko Haram quickly recon- itary cooperation and a more dynamic and robust momentum under way in Iraq security initiatives in Africa or elsewhere, VI Moscow Conference on International of the borders with Nigeria, Chad, Lake verted to the methods it knows best: and proactive sub-regional solidarity. and Syria gives us reason to hope for a as is the case here in Moscow. Security and to present my country’s Chad, and beyond Niger. suicide bombings, land mining, laying Despite all this, the Multinational more stable future. Also, we continue to advocate for a contribution during discussions at this Since my visit here exactly a year ago, improvised explosive devices, light Joint Task Force needs support and all I would also like to take advantage of more active, permanent, frank, and loyal prestigious meeting. the situation has changed a great deal ambushes, hostage taking, and theft of initiatives in this direction are welcome my visit here to raise awareness about international solidarity between states Before I delve into the heart of the matter, for the better. various resources for its sustenance. Due in terms of funding and logistics. Our the war that is wreaking havoc in Africa, and nations, large and small, powerful let me thank the Government of the Thanks to national efforts and relevant to its unpredictability, this asymmetric countries also need support for the the consequences of which consequences and less powerful. Russian Federation for this invitation, sub-regional synergy, a more vigorous mode of operation still causes loss of de-radicalisation and the social reinte- will reach the northern shores of the To conclude, I would like to once more which reflects the relevance and quality response was issued to the Boko Haram human lives among the population and gration of former terrorists. Mediterranean if nothing is done. We are express Cameroon’s gratitude to the of bilateral cooperation between Russia terrorists, who not only saw their military within the ranks of the Defence and Last March, the Committee of open to all proposals and contributions Government of the Russian Federation and my country in general and in the area organisation virtually disarticulated and Security Forces. Ambassadors of member countries of the that will enable us to put an end to ter- for its support and assistance in sev- of security in particular. their potential almost totally neutralised, With regards to Cameroon, thanks to United Nations Security Council visited rorist attacks and to devote our efforts eral areas. I would like to avail myself of this forum but who also had to abandon their main the vigorous action of the government, LCBC countries, namely Cameroon, more placidly to the development of our We welcome all initiatives that would to express the very positive consider- sanctuaries under repeated onslaughts supported by the local populations who Nigeria, Niger, and Chad. These senior countries. Our security rests on these help us in the vigorous fight to obtain ation of the President of the Republic from the Multinational Joint Task Force are invested in the struggle against the officials from New York together with efforts, considering that no one is safe final victory over terrorism, which, today, of Cameroon, Commander-in-Chief of of the Lake Chad Basin Commission. assailant often at the risk of their lives, their respective governments reviewed from terrorism, whether in the North, is clearly a very lucrative business that the Armed Forces, His Excellency Paul Today, we can say that at least 80% the social situation has improved con- progress made in the fight against Boko South, East, or West. some do not hesitate to take advantage Biya — on behalf of whom I bring you of the territories formerly occupied by siderably. The major economic corridors Haram. They took cognisance of the The appraisal I made in 2016 of the of in keeping with their covert but well- warm regards — for this opportunity Boko Haram have been taken over. In linking Cameroon, Nigeria, Chad, and reality of the war waged by terrorists situation remains topical considering known interests. to discuss and analyse security prob- addition, hundreds of its fighters had Niger have been reopened, pupils have lems that are critical in shaping the to lay down their arms and surrender returned to school, and economic activity experience of the peoples of the five themselves to the authorities of the has resumed, albeit timidly. continents. I would especially like to countries concerned. The process for In support of the need for a comprehen- assure you of the solidarity of the gov- their de-radicalisation and social rein- sive approach to addressing this phe- ernment and people of Cameroon after tegration is ongoing. nomenon, Cameroon has implemented the attack of 3 April 2017 in the Saint At the national level, Cameroon suc- a development plan for the Far North Petersburg metro, which caused the ceeded in inflicting heavy losses on Region, the epicentre of Boko Haram’s death of some fifteen innocent people the enemy, thus helping to practically activities on its territory. and injured about ten others. scale down its military capabilities to As I said a year ago, without making a At this same forum last year during the the barest minimum and almost totally mountain out of a molehill, Boko Haram, V edition of this conference, I presented forbidding it from acting as a formation a terrorist organisation affiliated with to you a map of the threats confronting across its national borders. Daesh, is a major threat to global

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VIGEN SARGSYAN call it goal-oriented regionalisation. missible. The bigger the actor in the Nobel Prize recipient José Saramago in Minister of Defence of the Republic of Armenia That is, the same country can simultane- international or regional scope, the his novel Blindness. I get the impression ously exist in different, often seemingly more accurately it must calculate the that we, as states, peoples, and individ- incompatable regions, depending on the repercussions of any of its actions uals who are responsible for decision issues at hand. that will provoke counteraction. making, are slowly but surely descending In this context, cooperation between in Saramago’s downward spiral of the defence agencies becomes particularly The understanding that we cooperate degradation of our security systems. important. It requires: not only in the short run, but for the We have shifted responsibility from long run is the cornerstone of effective ourselves, the decision-makers, to -- More information sharing; international dialogue. And given existing the armaments that we possess. The of warfare and their effects on the civilian Regions of poverty versus regions of challenges and threats this is simply a question “Is it permissible or is it not population, regular citizens, are in direct prosperity, regions that are sources of -- Direct lines of communication; must. permissible” in the paradigm of deci- contravention of international humani- refugees and regions where they arrive. This is a non-exhaustive task list for sion-making in the security sphere is tarian law and social development. Regions that require development -- The ability to keep promises — as a military-to-military cooperation in a con- increasingly often substituted by such In the 21st century, the primary empha- programmes, where sometimes even matter of building mutual trust; stantly changing security environment notions as “Can I or can I not”, or “Do I First off, I would like to thank the Ministry sis must be placed on the principle of drinking water is scarce, and regions that and dynamic transformation of regions. or do I not” have the necessary technical of Defence of the Russian Federation non-use of force or the threat to use strive to attract more foreign investment. -- A certain level of mutual under- At the same time, the spiral of violence means and capabilities. and Minister of Defence, Army General force. The efforts of the international Regions of war and regions of peace, standing through regular exchanges, and vengeance, and attempts to solve The farther we are from the historic Sergey Shoygu in particular, for the community must be focused on that. regions where young people dreams retraining courses, and interaction existing issues through a single strike, moment when the two total world invitation to and the organisation of this Unfortunately, war is increasingly about the top ten universities, and between military representatives; drags our nations towards chaos day by wars of the 20th century ended, the wonderful event. viewed through the prism of the regions where illiteracy is widespread. day. As was evident through the example more blurred is our sense of social Dialogue and interaction between Clausewitzian formula, as “the con- Regions where weapons, drugs and -- Strict observance of rules and provi- set in the Middle East, it only takes days responsibility based on principles and defence agencies is the very mechanism tinuation of politics by other means”. human trafficking are more powerful than sions of international humanitarian to transform seemingly stable regions values rather than military capabilities that must enforce restraints on escala- I believe that military officials who know national borders and customs offices, law; into combat zones, regions of death and of our nations. tions and provocations, while foreign and understand war, its consequences and regions where these issues seem poverty, create waves of refugees and I would like to thank the hospitable policy agencies and national leaders and its costs, only too well should as divorced from reality as screenplays -- Most importantly, respect towards legitimise violence. We are still uncertain hosts once again for the fascinating carry out negotiations, and search for return to the idea that war cannot be of thriller films. partners. The bigger the partner as to how we must work to correct these organisation of this conference. I would compromises concerning the essence the logical continuation of anything. Regions of freedom of speech and and the greater the impact of its mistakes, allowing the people of that like to express my hope that such dis- of the problem. History is given to mankind for crea- thought, and regions where the popu- actions and policies, the more thor- region to return to a peaceful life. cussions, meetings and debates are an The vast majority of ongoing conflicts tion and development, not for war or lation can demand that its government ough should be the understanding The phenomenon of social irresponsi- important factor in building mutual trust, cannot be solved through the use of confrontation. These days, it seems reinstates the death penalty. that any attempts to gain the upper bility and selfishness during times of understanding, and respect crucial for weapons. Of course, it is possible to as if armed conflicts are the norm No matter how different these clas- hand through harsh statements and dynamically changing social realities maintaining peace and security. catalyse negotiations by escalating interrupted by irregular and short sifications of regions are, the truth is short-term considerations are inad- is described by great Portuguese writer, tensions. However, the results of any intermissions of peace. very simple. Security depends on the such catalysis are difficult to predict, We have spoken, and continue to speak full understanding of trends of such or are altogether unforeseeable. Such at length about regions. However, the regionalisation and the consideration military operations, in any case, conclude deep transformation of the very defini- of local nuances when control systems with peace negotiations, compromises, tion of the concept of the “region” is the are established. and ceasefire agreements. In the end, it main issue in modern security. No single recipe can fit all, however seems that, in the 21st century, which This geographic formation, which just an obvious reality does exist. Long- is arguably a century of progress and yesterday was axiomatically considered term and effective results can only be scientific breakthroughs for all man- a “region”, is today a part of a whole set achieved through consistent and indi- kind, the horror of wars and atrocities of previously unknown “regions”. visible approach, the rule of principles, serve merely to soften the negotiating We witness a globalisation of non- rejection of any forms of selectivity and positions of conflicting parties, i.e. to state actors that independently start double standards, a refusal to build one’s render us, the individuals responsible forming new regions on the world map: prosperity on the suffering of others. for decision-making, more reasonable regions of terrorist groups’ influence Today, division into regions is based on and sober-minded. and their power centres. Regions that the concrete task at hand. The use of force cannot be a way to are more susceptible to ISIS recruit- Life leads us away from geographic resolve conflicts. The cost is prohibitively ment. Regions that are particularly regionalisation, but we continue to high. Huge resources are be required for vulnerable to hate preaching. return to it. It seems more convenient, recovery and reconstruction. Too many Linguistic, ethnic, religious, and ideolog- more familiar to us. Regionalisation in human destinies become hostages of ical regions that often stretch beyond the 21st century is based on existing history. What is more, the very methods their political borders. issues and ways to solve them. We can

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BADMAANYAMBUU BAT-ERDENE and peaceful foreign policy, Mongolia in the Asia-Pacific region is, in a certain of Mongolia Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj in Minister of Defence of Mongolia seeks to actively participate in regional sense, an obligation to the international 2013, conferences and seminars on cooperation and makes efforts to ensure community. energy issues have been held for three regional and global security. In general, Mongolia can work actively to times. The hallmark of this dialogue In this regard, the National Security ensure security in the Asia-Pacific region is that from the very start Mongolia Concept of Mongolia states that in the following three main areas: sought to involve all the countries “Mongolia actively supports and partic- of the region in it. In July 2016, the ipates in the activities of the countries of summit of the Asia–Europe Meeting the region aimed at establishing mecha- -- Participation, as a mediator, in resolv- was successfully held in Mongolia. nisms for cooperation on security issues ing interstate disputes; Also, for four years we have been the Korean peninsula, and the territorial are intensifying, in particular, human and strengthening strategic stability in working on a number of international disputes in the South China Sea, which trafficking, drug trafficking, terrorism, as the Asia-Pacific region, East Asia and, in -- Active participation and expression scientific conferences on security involve several countries such as China, well as environmental problems. They particular, Northeast Asia”. In addition, of its position at regional security issues in Northeast Asia, held annually the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia. become transnational, and consequently the Foreign Policy Concept of Mongolia events; by the Military Research Institute of Furthermore, internal instability in the an inevitable need arises for cooperation with respect to the main directions of the Ministry of Defence of Mongolia. First of all, I express my sincere gratitude countries of the region may adversely between states and nations to ensure foreign policy states that Mongolia -- Proactive involvement in the devel- It is very important for Mongolia to use to the Minister of Defence of the Russian affect regional security in the long term. regional security. develops cooperation and bilateral opment of a system of multilateral its advantages, such as the absence Federation for the invitation to take In this region, strategic differences Unlike other regions of the world, the friendly relations with Asian countries, security cooperation in the region. of severe disagreements with other part in such an important conference between some countries remain Asia-Pacific region has not yet estab- participates in multilateral regional countries and the presence of friendly discussing all aspects of international unresolved. Moreover, tension remains lished a unified system of cooperation cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region Mongolian and foreign experts believe relations with them, to ensure security security. I also express my gratitude to between some of the region’s leading in the field of security. The purpose of and supports measures for strengthening that in the first area Mongolia could, by creating a multilateral security the organisers of the conference for an states, which has a significant impact this interaction is not only to address strategic stability in the East, Northeast first of all, be a mediator in resolving the structure in the region. In order to opportunity to speak. on global politics. The current situation problems, but also to prevent their and Central Asia, as well as an expansion nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula play a meaningful role in this process, I would like to briefly talk about the leads some to argue that, to a certain aggravation. of cooperation on security issues. This and the differences between the DPRK Mongolia should develop bilateral rela- position and efforts of Mongolia with extent, conditions are in place in the In this regard, the region needs a joint is the basis of Mongolia’s policy at the and the Republic of Korea, and between tions with all countries in the region. regards to security issues in the Asia- region for the resumption of the Cold War. security system. Undoubtedly, it will not regional level. the DPRK and Japan over abducted For the past 20 years, the Asia-Pacific Pacific region. At the same time, the overall sit- be easy to create a structure for mul- Due to the intensification of the glo- Japanese citizens. At the same time, region has been a key priority track in In the 21st century, the Asia-Pacific region uation with regional security in the tilateral cooperation on security issues balisation and integration processes, this requires not only Mongolia to be our foreign policy. We are aware of the started to play an important role in Asia-Pacific region suggests a low which would embrace the entire region. no individual state can ensure security proactive, but also that the parties are inevitable need to consider our own international relations. In recent years, probability of large-scale direct armed Nevertheless, there are many proposals unilaterally. In addition, security of willing to use the services of a mediator. security in the context of the regional the system of international relations clashes in the near future. and initiatives to create such a structure, such a small country with such a spe- Mongolia actively participates in situation and we are pursuing a foreign has changed a lot, and most researchers In our opinion, when it comes to ensuring and some have been implemented quite cial geographical position as Mongolia regional meetings and summits on policy that takes this aspect into believe that the centre of international security of any region, the main task is successfully. In particular, since 2002 will depend on the overall situation in security issues. In particular, Mongolia account. It is positive that there are relations is moving from Europe to Asia not to aggravate the existing situation, the International Institute for Strategic the region. regularly and actively participates no direct traditional threats. Despite and from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific and to maintain regional security in its Studies annually holds the Shangri-La Mongolia has already been recognised as in the meetings held within the their absence, Mongolia continues to Ocean. Along with the increasing impor- current state, which in itself is not an Dialogue in Singapore, at which dele- one of the countries that is not embroiled Shangri-La Dialogue. In addition, in work proactively to ensure regional tance of this region, in which countries’ easy task. As was already noted, despite gations led by the defence ministers in disagreements with other states and accordance with the National Security security, and there is a tendency economic potential is rapidly growing the fact that there are no signs of the of Asia-Pacific region countries have that in fact has friendly relations with Concept of Mongolia, Foreign Policy towards further intensification of such and their trade interdependence is situation deteriorating, there are also an opportunity to share their views on other states. Therefore, we have real Concept of Mongolia and other docu- work in the future. increasing, it is becoming clear that it no guarantees that existing disputes topical issues and problems. I think this opportunities to organise meetings ments, Mongolia takes an active part In conclusion of my report, I would like is necessary to establish a system of and differences will not get worse in meeting is the largest in the region, in and forums embracing all countries in other forms of regional interaction, to briefly tell you about the areas of multilateral cooperation here. the future. Thus, the main issue is not terms of both its importance and the of the region. In this regard, Mongolia seeks to join the Asia-Pacific Economic Mongolia’s military cooperation. In addition to the fact that territorial resolving the regional problems, but number of participants. has initiated many proposals and Cooperation and actively interacts In the field of defence, Mongolia coop- disputes between a number of states preventing their aggravation. At the same time, there is a trend implements some of them. In particular, with the Association of Southeast erates with virtually all countries in the have long been a presence in the region, Along with this, the nuclear problem towards more regular conferences and after Mongolia declared its territory Asian Nations. region. Its relations with two neigh- which is one of security challenges in of the DPRK, which has threatened not seminars on regional security issues a nuclear-weapons-free zone at the Mongolia also proposes its own bouring countries are of special impor- the Asia-Pacific region, unconventional only the countries of the region, but the organised by various countries in the United Nations in 1992, the country has initiatives for establishing a system tance. Mongolia has military-technical threats are emerging and are becoming whole world for many years, is unlikely Asia-Pacific region. sought to reinforce this status, have it of cooperation on regional security cooperation agreements with Russia transnational. to be resolved in the near future. This In addition, I would like to stress that recognised at the international level and issues. With regards to this, we can and China, which form the basis for the In the Asia-Pacific region, there are still is confirmed by the recent nuclear and during the Moscow Conference on prevent a regional nuclear threat in the mention the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue development of cooperation. security problems that attract interna- missile tests and threats from the DPRK International Security, organised for the future, which was highly appreciated by that addresses security issues in We also pay attention to building tional attention. The most notable ones leadership, as well as by political insta- sixth time, significant attention is paid to the international community. Northeast Asia. After the Ulaanbaatar military trust and strengthening are the territorial disputes between bility in the Republic of Korea. security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. Contributing to the development of a Dialogue Initiative on Northeast Asian relations in the field of defence with Japan and China, the nuclear issue on In addition, some unconventional threats As a state pursuing an open, multi-vector system of cooperation on security issues Security was announced by President the countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

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Cooperation in the field of defence is Regional Training Centre for peace- as well as in international sports GENERAL-IN-CHIEF VLADIMIR PADRINO LÓPEZ carried out through mutual accredita- keeping forces, the Mongolian Armed events for the military. Minister of Defence of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela tion of military attachés, exchange of Forces conduct bilateral peacekeeping I note with satisfaction that all the military delegations, military trainings, and humanitarian exercises, as well reports and speeches at this Moscow joint peacekeeping and other exercises, as counter-terrorism exercises jointly Conference on International Security as well as sports and mass events for with Russia, China, the United States, are of great importance for the devel- the military. India, the Republic of Korea, and Turkey. opment of a harmonised approach to As regards strengthening military trust We consider this to be our contribution the issues being discussed and for the in the region and globally, we partic- to regional security and building of mil- definition of areas for international ipate in international peacekeeping itary trust. In addition, our servicemen military cooperation. operations, joint peacekeeping and regularly take part in the International I wish you success in your work at this multinational forums, and the gradual related to their specific objectives, may counter-terrorism exercises. Army Games organised by the Ministry conference. limitation of weapons acquisition. not threaten the sovereignty and integ- Along with the exercises held at the of Defence of the Russian Federation, A common vision of the topic has been rity of any South American country, and forming ever since, until the Union of consequently, the stability and safety of South American Nations (UNASUR) was the entire region”. From the Motherland of Simon Bolivar born in April 2007, during the Summit Similarly, this commitment to promote a the Liberator, in the name of Citizen on Energy on the Margarita Island, culture of peace was supported in 2012, Nicolás Maduro Moros, Constitutional Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. The in Lima, Republic of Peru, where peace President of the Bolivarian Republic of UNASUR Constitutive Treaty was signed is understood as the supreme good, Venezuela and Commander in Chief of on 23 May 2008, defining this Union as based on the provisions of the UNASUR the Bolivarian National Armed Forces, an international organisation comprising Constitutive Treaty, and on the principles and representing the whole Venezuelan 12 South American countries with the of the Declaration and Programme of nation, I hereby convey warm, Bolivarian, objective of creating a space for cultural, Action adopted by the United Nations Chavist, revolutionary and anti- economic, social and political integration, for that matter. imperialist greetings to Mr Vladimir Putin, with respect for the sovereignty and Nevertheless, despite all the above, President of the Russian Federation, to independence of each state. we are all well aware of the significant General Sergey Shoygu, Minister of Later on, in the year 2008, the Council influence that the United States of Defence, whom I would like to thank of South American Defence (CDS) was North America has historically held for his kind invitation to this conference, created, as a mechanism for consulting, over the security doctrine designed and to all our sisters and brothers in this assistance, and coordination within for the Western Hemisphere. In order great country: our sympathies are with UNASUR. It should be made clear that to achieve this, its foreign policy has you regarding the terrorist attacks that this organisation is not a conventional always created certain conditions, and is happened recently in Saint Petersburg. military or operational alliance. It essen- enacted through regional organisations, With deeply felt deference, we also greet tially implements policies of military such as the Organization of American the distinguished participants of this assistance, humanitarian operations, States (OEA), which puts these claims reputable forum. peacekeeping missions, industrial and into action through the Inter-American When approaching the topic “Military-to- technological exchange, educational and Defence Board, the Inter-American military engagements: regional aspects” training activities. One of the most impor- College, and such organisations as the the frame of reference I will be using is tant tasks of the CDS is to guarantee the Conference of Ministers of Defence of the way the Latin American states jointly above-mentioned Zone of Peace — the the Americas, and the Conference of address security and defence issues. In basis for improving democracy and the American Armies. During the latest this respect, it should be noted that overall development of our countries. As meetings, we have witnessed the Venezuela is a part of South America, and may be seen, the bloc has recourse to presence at these forums of countries during the II Summit of the Presidents of understanding, multilateral agreements closely related to the North Atlantic the countries of this subcontinent, which and conventions in order to define its Treaty Organization (NATO), as well as took place in Guayaquil, Republic of defence policies. an obvious intention to include such Ecuador, in 2002, this region was declared Along the same lines, during the topics as joint response against human- a Zone of Peace and Cooperation. This Extraordinary Summit of Heads of itarian crises and natural disasters. historic fact reflects the best traditions State and Government of the UNASUR In this respect, the United States cur- of understanding and peaceful coexist- countries held in 2009 in San Carlos de rently maintains over 36 military bases in ence between the nations in search of Bariloche, Republic of Argentina, it was Latin America and the Caribbean, seven consensus, favouring trust, collaboration, decided to issue a proclamation that: of which are located in Colombia. On 24 and constant negotiation in security and “The presence of foreign military forces, December 2016, Colombia announced the defence issues, coordinated actions in with their own means and resources probable formalisation of a cooperation

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programme for information exchange and principles of freedom, equality, justice, might have. Therefore, in compliance VALERY SEMERIKOV the fight against organised crime together and world peace, among other values; with the provisions that govern relations Acting Secretary-General of the Collective with NATO. We should emphasise that for this reason, our country directs its within the international community, Security Treaty Organisation this organisation is overtly operational efforts towards the consolidation of and in the spirit of inherent harmony, in its nature, and has a record of military those values, always within the legal we would like to suggest an in-depth interventions in different parts of the framework that governs relations analysis of such a sensitive issue, in world; therefore, concerns related to between different countries. the light of the existing need for further the scope and possible consequences On the other hand, it is true that global reinforcement of various regional and of this programme for the regional threats, both conventional and emergent, bilateral mechanisms that would provide peace and stability seem inevitable. It such as organised crime, drug trafficking, for a lasting peace in South America. should be remembered that Venezuela the illegal arms trade, cyber-war, money In conclusion, I would like to quote actions include missile strikes against could turn this country into their foothold is Colombia’s neighbour, which is yet laundering, and terrorism, demand con- Supreme Commander of the Bolivarian government forces’ facilities in the for expansion to the north. another cause of reasonable uneasiness stant innovation and revision of security Revolution Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, Syrian Arab Republic and military black- The continuing crisis in Ukraine has for the Venezuelan state. concepts. However, despite the versatile one of the architects of the ongoing inte- mail against the Democratic People’s revealed the failure of the ruling regime At the same time, if we consider the scale nature of the problem field, they should gration process across Latin America. On Republic of Korea. that seized power in that country through of the US support that goes to NATO, a be approached through a greater will to 15 September 2006, at the XIV Summit First of all, let me thank the Ministry The war in the Middle East, which is a coup. In this regard, it is puzzling to see convention with such characteristics cre- integrate, and through a stronger union; of the Non-Aligned Movement, he said: of Defence of the Russian Federation increasingly acquiring the character- the support provided by the so-called ates a scenario with greater operational in order to provide joint responses to “A world where no country dominates for organising the now-traditional istics of a large-scale armed conflict civilised world to the overtly nationalistic capacities for both the United States and those threats, as a single bloc, we should is possible, a world where there is no International Conference on the topical involving the use of weapons of mass policies of the current Kiev government. Colombia. Eventually, that might result understand that there can be no isolated global policeman, no wars nor bayonets, issue of ensuring global and regional destruction, is cause for serious con- Proven technologies of the so-called in a negative impact on the promotion answers to problems that are shared by but instead a more profound feeling of security. cern. The use of chemical weapons by hybrid war, information pressure, of mutual trust, and on the efforts that the whole region. brotherhood and equality”. Today, unfortunately, there is every terrorist groups to achieve their goals economic blackmail are used against are consistently implemented to improve Given the situation described, the voice God willing, may South America and the reason to state that the situation has already become a reality. the CSTO member states to destroy the construction of a South American of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela whole world always continue aspiring for in the world has become even more Unfortunately, the recent chemical the allied relations and disintegrate identity in terms of defence. is being heard on this important arena, as peace, the most desirable of all victories. complicated since last year’s V Moscow attacks carried out by terrorists in Syria the Organisation. In accordance with its National we voice our concern over the potential Conference on International Security. and Iraq were used by the West to dis- Today, international terrorism is one Constitution, the Bolivarian Republic of implications that the signing of the said There are increasingly visible state- credit the official Damascus and the role of the most serious challenges to the Venezuela is rooted in the fundamental programme between Colombia and NATO ments about an allegedly inevitable played by the Russian Federation and security of the CSTO member states. third world war and the approaching its allies in the fight against terrorism International media report an increase end of human civilisation. in the region. in terrorist activity throughout the world. There are more than sufficient grounds Initiated externally, the conflicts in For example, according to their data, 92 for these assessments. Cynically, with Iraq, Libya, and Syria have plunged the terrorist attacks occurred in 22 countries the help of notorious double standards, Middle East and the north of the African in the first quarter of 2017. The number the system of strategic stability is being continent into endless blood-letting. of terrorist attacks in the Middle East destroyed, conflicts are being stirred up, Hundreds of thousands of refugees flee has increased by almost 10%. and the principles of equal responsibility the conflict zone. They have flooded In the territory of states bordering the for peace and security, mutual respect prosperous European countries. CSTO’s area of responsibility, 35 terrorist and non-interference in internal affairs The tragic paradox of this situation is attacks were committed during that are being undermined. that the powers that have created this period (28 in Afghanistan, 3 in Turkey, 4 Military capacity is being built up under crisis are now urging other states to in Ukraine). There was a terrorist attack unsubstantiated pretexts. In Central and shoulder the burden of responsibility in the Saint Petersburg metro. Security Eastern Europe, we witness new battle for what they have done. services of the Russian Federation iden- groups, the development of military The qualitative deterioration of the tified and neutralised a criminal group infrastructure, the deployment of sur- situation in Afghanistan also relates consisting of Russian citizens and people veillance and reconnaissance systems to this. The ongoing confrontation from Central Asia that intended to launch and information and strike complexes between various ethnic and religious terrorist attacks in various Russian cities. of the strategic missile defence system groups, the actions of the Taliban, and Reportedly, there have been recent aimed at neutralising Russia’s strategic the growing volume of drug trafficking attempts to resolve differences between deterrence forces. are only some of the threats emanat- ISIS and Al-Qaeda through negotiations Violent campaigns against sovereign ing from the territory of this country and to unite these two terrorist organi- states, which breach international law, neighbouring the CSTO. sations into an alliance. If this initiative clearly demonstrate the existence of Today, a flow of ISIS militants who succeeds, the terrorist threat across clear plans to gain global leadership. The survived in Syria and Iraq has rushed the world will increase many-fold. The most recent examples of such unlawful into Afghanistan, and eventually they continuing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh,

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border disputes between CSTO member Collective Rapid Reaction Force (CRRF) observe and take part in such exercises. decisions relating to crisis response me, I tried to bring to your attention, in a are deeply convinced that only jointly, states and with third countries, the (over 22,000 people); Peacekeeping The CSTO has created and is developing by the statutory bodies, the ability concise form, just one, most visible, part on the basis of mutual trust and respect problem of water and energy shortage, Forces (over 3,500 people); Collective a system of training personnel for the to provide all types of assistance, of the problems of international security for international law, is it possible to transport isolation and a number of other Aviation Forces; Regional Groups of armed forces and other security bodies including military support to member faced and taken into account by the CSTO effectively counter existing, emerging, problems negatively impact the security Forces, including the Collective Rapid of our states. Annually, about 1,500 states in the event of an attack by in its work to ensure collective security, and ever-increasing challenges and level in CSTO member states. Deployment Force in the Central Asian people from the Organisation member illegal armed groups. territorial integrity and sovereignty of threats to the contemporary world. The threats of drugs trafficking, illegal Region (CRDF CAR) (about 5,000 people). states receive training on preferential In my speech, within the time allotted to the Organisation member states. We migration, criminal use of information Regular checks of the staffing and terms or free of charge at military networks are still relevant and have combat readiness of these groups universities of the Ministry of Defence, already become traditional. demonstrate that the CSTO Collective the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Today, when the Organisation celebrates Forces can fulfil their intended tasks at Ministry of Emergency Situations and the its 15th anniversary, it is fair to say that any time, at the decision of the Collective Federal Security Service of the Russian the CSTO, as a result of joint efforts Security Council. Federation. The same terms apply to undertaken by its member states, has The development of these CSTO forces representatives of our states when they become a self-sufficient Organisation is carried out in accordance with the are trained at specialised universities in capable of responding collectively to Action Plan for the implementation of the Republic of Armenia, the Republic of a whole range of current security chal- the Main Areas of Military Cooperation Belarus, and the Republic of Kazakhstan. lenges and threats. between CSTO Member States until 2020, Military-technical and military-economic The determination and long-term as approved by the Collective Security cooperation is carried out on preferential intentions of our Organisation to develop Council in 2013. terms. In terms of countering challenges comprehensive cooperation between its Today, the CSTO has its own forces and and threats, a system of coordinating member states in the field of collective capability for conducting peacekeeping joint activities in the field of combating security were emphasised in the CSTO operations not only within CSTO member terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking, Collective Security Strategy adopted by states, but also in third countries under illegal migration from third countries, the Collective Security Council in October a UN Security Council mandate. Close and ensuring information security has 2016 for the period until 2025. interaction between the CSTO Secretariat been created and is operational and The cumulative potential of the CSTO, and the UN Department for Peacekeeping effective within the CSTO. which guarantees security to the member Operations has been established and is Practical interaction to neutralise states in the context of increased military developing. We jointly work on practical these threats to the security of CSTO and political instability, is based on three issues related to formalising the use of member states is carried out through complementary areas of application of CSTO peacekeeping contingents in UN joint special operational and preventive collective efforts: political cooperation peacekeeping missions. measures: Kanal (Channel) to counter (priority), military cooperation, and The CSTO Collective Forces are trained drug trafficking; Nelegal (Illegal migrant) cooperation in the field of countering in accordance with annual plans for the to counter illegal migration; PROXY to challenges and threats. preparation of command and control ensure security of electronic networks. The CSTO has well established mech- bodies, and forces and capability of Given the severity of the problem, anisms for political cooperation that is the collective security system of the large-scale measures are taken in the a priority for the Organisation. Member Organisation. CSTO format to counter international states move forward with their practice Since 2004, over 30 exercises of different terrorism and extremism. In order to of coordinating foreign policy at inter- scales have been held involving the optimise collective efforts in this area, national venues based on regularly forces and capability of the collective a mechanism was approved at the updated collective instructions for the security system on CSTO member state October 2016 session of the Collective plenipotentiary representatives of our territory in accordance with these plans, Security Council to create a single CSTO states in international organisations. including Rubezh (Frontier) with the CRDF list of terrorist organisations. There is The CSTO has built a military capacity CAR; Vzaimodeystvie (Interaction) with no precedent of such a mechanism in any adequate for its goals. It is based on the CSTO CRRF; Nerushimoye Bratstvo other international organisation. the CSTO forces (Collective Forces) that (Unbreakable Brotherhood) with the During the session, additional measures integrate national contingents, regional CSTO Peacekeeping Forces. Special were also identified, aimed at enhancing and coalition military groups, and the tactical exercises, Grom (Thunder) and the effectiveness of the CSTO’s counter- necessary military systems (command, Kobalt (Cobalt), are conducted regularly terrorism activities. communications, air defence, compre- to train the CSTO CRRF to counter terror- We pay particular attention to the hensive support). ism and drug trafficking. Representatives development of the CSTO crisis Currently, the forces and means of of foreign countries and international response mechanism, which involves the collective security system include organisations are regularly invited to streamlining the process of adopting

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THOMAS GRAHAM but it was at least in part intended to said, President Trump appears to have Russia and the United States should be Managing Director at Kissinger Associates (USA) get Moscow’s attention. backed away from his pledge during considering ways to cooperate against My sense is that President Trump himself the campaign to tear up the nuclear the emerging ISIS threat and limiting would still like to find a way to cooperate deal with Iran. the spill-over into Central Asia. And with Russia, but a condition for that will In this uncertain situation, the United given the immediate consequences for be Moscow’s willingness to pressure States and Russia should be discussing them, the Central Asian states, along Assad to act with greater restraint. Even the future order in the Middle East as with the CSTO, should also participate then, it will take considerable time to part of an effort to bring the Syrian crisis in these discussions. come up with a formula for satisfactory to a satisfactory and enduring resolu- It is now commonplace to say that counter-terrorism cooperation, given tion. These two countries cannot alone US–Russian relations are at their lowest and East Asia, and his warm words for would prove a central one this year, given the different assessments the two determine the new order. The regional point since the end of the Cold War. The President Putin and his expressed desire the speed with which North Korea is countries have of the situation on the powers — Egypt, Iran, Israel, Turkey, and differences between the two countries to work more closely with Russia set him developing its nuclear capabilities and ground in Syria and the profound distrust Saudi Arabia — will play prominent roles. are indeed significant — on questions apart from more mainstream political long-range ballistic missile technology. that exists between the American and But American and Russian cooperation of world order and in assessments of thinking in the United States. Any American president would have Russian militaries and special services. is critical to reducing the tension in the current conflicts. But the conflicts will I want to thank the Ministry of Defence That said, his picks for key national said that North Korea’s development Syria, as we all know, is embedded in the region and minimising the extent to not be properly managed or satisfactorily for holding this important conference and security posts — Secretary of State of a missile with a nuclear warhead larger struggle in the Middle East over which instability spills over into Europe, resolved without Russia and the United for inviting me to participate. Tillerson, Secretary of Defence capable of reaching the United States the shape of the future order. Trump Russia, and other neighbouring states. States engaging one another. And the Before I begin my remarks, I want to Mattis, and National Security Advisor is unacceptable. has reached out to reassure America’s Finally, the conflict in Afghanistan two countries need to discuss the foun- stress that I am not speaking as an McMaster — all fall within that main- Not surprisingly, President Trump is traditional allies, including Israel, Egypt, is not going to end soon. As former dations of world order, of which they are official or unofficial representative of the stream, and they have tended to give now focused on making sure that cannot Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The rhetoric Afghanistan President Karzai said both essential pillars. The sooner that Trump Administration. What I am about Trump’s policy a more traditional cast. happen. Three elements have defined against Iran has been harsh and the yesterday, it is getting worse, as ISIS discussion begins in a serious way, the to present are solely my own views as an In the past month, he has reconfirmed his approach. First, he has reassured administration is looking for other ways is gaining a foothold and the Taliban are better off we all will be. observer of American foreign policy with America’s commitment to NATO, and America’s allies — Japan and South to increase the pressure, but, that gaining strength. In these circumstances, some experience in the US Government, earlier he had assured Japanese Prime Korea — that the United States remains including at the White House. Minister Abe of America’s support. committed to their defence and to a The Trump administration, as we all know, Looking forward, it is probably true that prominent role in the region. Second, has been in office for three short months. President Trump’s policies will mark he seeks to persuade China to step up It does not have fully formed policies even more of a continuation of conventional pressure on the North Korean regime to on the issues that dominate the United American security policy rather than a freeze its nuclear programme as a step States’ foreign policy agenda, such as radical break. In this he will be following towards negotiating its dismantlement. North Korea, Syria, counter-terrorism, in the path of his predecessors, who crit- That was a major goal of his meeting and the non-proliferation of weapons icised outgoing administrations during with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier of mass destruction. This is not unusual presidential campaigns only to build on this month, and he appears to have had for a new administration. An incoming their policies once in office. some success. At least China has taken administration likes to review policies, Where he will want to break with some steps to slow the flow of financial a process that takes several months. President Obama is not so much on goals resources to Pyongyang. And, third, We generally do not see well-formed but on tactics. He wants to appear deci- Trump has put the use of force back on positions until the summer after the sive where he believes Obama hesitated. the table as a real option, to incentivise inauguration at the earliest. In particular, he appears more inclined to China to act and to demonstrate to North What makes this administration particu- wield the military — in a demonstrative Korea the risks of its present course. It larly difficult to read is that President way — than Obama was, although he is much too early to say whether this Trump is an outsider, as far as the two too will be wary of committing forces to approach will bear fruit. dominant political parties are concerned. ground combat anywhere in the world, With Syria and more broadly the Middle He is not drawing on the traditional sta- absent a direct challenge to America’s East, President Trump needed to demon- ble of foreign policy experts from either vital interests. Likewise, he also believes strate that the United States would be the Republican or the Democratic party he derives some benefit from being engaged in a serious way. The strike that would give us a clearer sense of unpredictable, unlike Obama. We see against Syria for the use of chemical where he wanted to take policy. these attributes in some of President weapons demonstrated that, and it Moreover, during the campaign he chal- Trump’s recent actions. has caused all countries in the region to lenged the foreign policy orthodoxy that North Korea has risen to the top of the recalibrate their policies, no matter what had formed in the United States in the years agenda in the United States. There was a their positions on the chemical attack. after the end of the World War II, especially widespread view shared by Republicans The American strike is not necessarily with regard to American allies in Europe and Democrats alike that this problem a prelude to further attacks, however,

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