Corporate Finance Briefing: S&P Vs. I/B/E/S Earnings

Corporate Finance Briefing: S&P vs. I/B/E/S Earnings

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 15, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents

S&P 500 Revenues 1 S&P 500 Operating Earnings 2 S&P 500 Profits Margin 3 S&P 500 Earnings 4 S&P 500 Margin 5-6 S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings 7-10 S&P Sectors Quarterly Operating and Reported EPS 11 S&P Sectors Quarterly EPS (% difference) 12 S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & S&P Operating EPS 13 S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (% difference)14 S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (y/y % growth)15 S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating and SP Reported EPS 16 S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth) 17-18 S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Four-quarter Operating Profit Margins19 S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Quarterly Operating Profit Margins20 S&P 500 Write-Offs 21 S&P 500 Trailing Earnings 22 S&P 500 Earnings With & Without Energy 23 S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues 24-29

September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Revenues Figure 1. 400 400 Q2 375 S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE 375 350 (dollars, quarterly, ratio scale) 350 325 325 300 300 275 275

250 250

225 225

200 200

175 175

150 150

125 125

yardeni.com 100 100 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 2. 25 25

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE LatestQ2 (21.7) 20 (yearly percent change) 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15

-20 -20

yardeni.com -25 -25 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Page 1 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Operating Earnings Figure 3. 75 75 65 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv) Latest (52.53) 65 (dollars, quarterly, nsa, ratio scale) 55 55 Q2 45 45

35 35

25 25

15 15

yardeni.com 5 5 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 4. 130 130 120 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv) Latest (88.5) 120 (yearly percent change) 110 110 100 100 90 Q2 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 yardeni.com -50 -50 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Due to extreme values, Q4-2008’s -65.2% is capped at -40% and Q4-2009’s +198.9% is capped at 60%. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 2 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Profits Margin Figure 5. 450 55 S&P 500 REVENUES & OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE Q2 (dollars, quarterly) 50 400 Q2 Revenues (384.2) 45

350 40 Earnings (I/B/E/S) (52.8)

35 300

250 25

200 20

15 150 10

yardeni.com 100 5 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6. 16 16 S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv) Latest (13.7) (percent, quarterly) 14 14 Q2

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

yardeni.com 2 2 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Earnings Figure 7. 55 55 Q2 50 S&P 500 OPERATING EPS: S&P data vs I/B/E/S data 50 (dollars, quarterly) 45 45 40 40 35 35 I/B/E/S Operating (52.75) 30 30 S&P Operating (52.02) 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

60 60 S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (I/B/E/S data) vs REPORTED EPS (S&P data) Q2 50 (dollars) 50 40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0 I/B/E/S Operating (52.75) -10 S&P Reported (48.38) -10 -20 -20

-30 -30 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

60 60 S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (S&P data) vs REPORTED EPS (S&P data) Q2 50 (dollars) Q2 50 40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0 S&P Operating (52.02) -10 S&P Reported (48.38) -10 -20 -20 yardeni.com -30 -30 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Margin Figure 8. 16 16 S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN: S&P data vs I/B/E/S data 14 14 (percent, quarterly) Q2 12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 I/B/E/S Operating (13.7) 4 S&P Operating (13.5) 2 2

0 0

-2 -2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

18 18

15 S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (I/B/ES data) vs REPORTED MARGIN (S&P data) 15 (percent, quarterly) Q2 12 12

9 9

6 6

3 3

0 0

-3 -3 I/B/E/S Operating (13.7) -6 S&P Reported (12.6) -6

-9 -9

-12 -12 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

18 18 16 S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (S&P data) vs REPORTED MARGIN (S&P data) 16 14 (percent, quarterly) Q2 14 12 Q2 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 S&P Operating (13.5) -4 -6 S&P Reported (12.6) -6 -8 -8 -10 -10 yardeni.com -12 -12 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 5 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Margin Figure 9. 16 16 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (S&P vs I/B/E/S earnings data) (percent, quarterly) 14 14 Q2

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

S&P 500 Operating Profit Margin 4 I/B/E/S data (13.7) 4 S&P data (13.5)

2 2

yardeni.com 0 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).

Figure 10. 15 15 S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN (S&P reported vs I/B/E/S operating earnings data) (percent, quarterly) Q2 12 12

9 9

6 6

3 3

0 0

-3 S&P 500 Profit Margin -3 I/B/E/S operating data (13.7) -6 S&P reported data (12.6) -6

-9 -9

yardeni.com -12 -12 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).

Page 6 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings Figure 11. 60 60 S&P 500 OPERATING & REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (S&P data) (dollars, quarterly) 50 50 Q2

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 Operating (S&P data) (52.02) -10 Reported (S&P data) (48.38)

-20 -20

yardeni.com -30 -30 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 12. 55 55 50 S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (I/B/E/S data) vs REPORTED EPS 50 (S&P data) Q2 45 (dollars) 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0

-5 I/B/E/S Operating (52.75) -5 -10 S&P Reported (48.38) -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 yardeni.com -25 -25 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).

Page 7 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings Figure 13. 400 215 Q2 S&P 500 REVENUES HEALTH CARE Q2 350 PER SHARE 165 300 115 250 65 200

150 15 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 40 110 35 COMMUNICATION SERVICES INDUSTRIALS Q2 90 30 25 70 20 Q2 50 15 10 30 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 170 120 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 100 140 Q2 Q2 80 110 60 80 40

50 20 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 125 65 CONSUMER STAPLES Q2 MATERIALS Q2 100 55

75 45

50 35

25 25 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 175 10 ENERGY REAL ESTATE 150 Q2 9 125 8 100 Q2 7 75 50 6 25 5 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 70 45 FINANCIALS Q2 UTILITIES 60 40

50 35

40 30 Includes Real Estate Q2 30 through Q2-2016 25 yardeni.com 20 20 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Page 8 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings Figure 14. 100 35 Q2 80 S&P 500 OPERATING HEALTH CARE 30 (22.7) 25 60 EARNINGS PER SHARE Q2 20 40 (yearly percent change) 15 20 10 0 5 -20 (88.5) 0 -40 -5 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 100 600 75 COMMUNICATION SERVICES Q2 INDUSTRIALS Q2 500 50 400 25 300 0 200 (522.1) -25 (73.1) 100 -50 0 -75 -100 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250 50 Q2 200 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Q2 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 40 150 30 100 (46.3) 20 50 10 0 -50 (202.2) 0 -100 -10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 30 150 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS Q2 20 Q2 100 10 (133.0) 50 0 0 -10 (18.7)

-20 -50 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 300 Q2 30 250 ENERGY Q2 REAL ESTATE 200 (28.0) 20 150 (249.4) 100 10 50 0 0 -50 -10 -100 Capped at 275% and -100% -150 -20 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 175 30 Q2 150 FINANCIALS UTILITIES (12.9) 125 20 100 Q2 75 (157.4) 10 50 0 25 0 -10 -25 yardeni.com -50 -20 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 9 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings Figure 15. 16 12.0 S&P 500 OPERATING HEALTH CARE Q2 11.5 14 PROFIT MARGIN* Q2 11.0 12 (quarterly, percent) 10.5 10 10.0 8 9.5 (13.7) (11.4) 6 9.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 14 COMMUNICATION INDUSTRIALS 12 18 Q2 SERVICES 10 Q2 14 8 10 6 4 6 2 (18.5) (9.1) 2 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 12 26 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INFORMATION Q2 10 TECHNOLOGY 24 8 Q2 22 6 20

4 18 (7.8) (24.9) 2 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 8.5 16 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS Q2 8.0 14 Q2 12 7.5 (7.7) 10 7.0 8 6.5 6 (14.7) 6.0 4 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 15 35 12 ENERGY REAL ESTATE 9 6 Q2 Q2 3 30 0 -3 -6 (6.5) (30.6) -9 25 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 18 FINANCIALS Q2 UTILITIES 16 20 Q2 14 15 12 10 10 5 8 (20.4) (15.0) yardeni.com 0 6 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Operating margin in percent and based on latest quarterly earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.

Page 10 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors Quarterly Operating and Reported EPS Figure 16. 60 20 S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE Q2 HEALTH CARE Q2 45 15 30 15 10 0 S&P Operating EPS 5 -15 S&P Reported EPS -30 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 15 12 COMMUNICATION SERVICES INDUSTRIALS 10 10 Q2 8 5 6 Q2 0 4 2 -5 0 -10 -2 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 15 25 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Q2 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Q2 10 20 5 15 0 10 -5 5 -10 0 -15 -5 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 12 CONSUMER STAPLES Q2 MATERIALS Q2 8 8 4 6 0 -4 4 -8 2 -12 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 30 10 ENERGY REAL ESTATE 20 8 6 10 Q2 4 0 Q2 2 -10 0 -20 -2 -30 -4 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 20 6 FINANCIALS Q2 UTILITIES 10 4 0 Q2 2 -10 0 -20 yardeni.com -30 -2 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Page 11 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors Quarterly EPS (% difference) Figure 17. 100 150 80 S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE HEALTH CARE 125 60 100 40 (26.4) 75 20 50 0 Q2 -20 % difference between Q2 25 -40 S&P Operating and 0 Reported EPS (7.5) -60 -25 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 175 150 125 COMMUNICATION SERVICES INDUSTRIALS 100 75 50

25 Q2 Q2 0 -25 -50 -75 (12.1) (-1.4) -100 -125 -150 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 175 175 125 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 125 75 75 25 25 Q2 Q2 -25 -25 -75 (4.6) (3.8) -75 -125 -125 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 120 175 100 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS 125 80 60 (17.5) 75 40 25 Q2 20 Q2 -25 0 (9.1) -20 -75 -40 -125 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 175 60 125 ENERGY REAL ESTATE 40 75 (13.4) 20 25 Q2 Q2 0 -25 -20 -75 (0.5) -40 -125 -60 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 75 175 50 FINANCIALS UTILITIES 125 25 0 Q2 75 -25 Q2 25 -50 -25 -75 (0.2) -100 (35.3) -75 yardeni.com -125 -125 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 12 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & S&P Operating EPS Figure 18. 60 24 Q2 Q2 50 S&P 500 EARNINGS HEALTH CARE 21 PER SHARE 40 18 30 15 20 12 10 I/B/E/S Operating EPS 9 S&P Operating EPS 0 6 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 12 8 COMMUNICATION SERVICES INDUSTRIALS 10 6 Q2 8 4 Q2 6 2 4 0 -2 2 -4 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 12 30 CONSUMER Q2 INFORMATION 10 DISCRETIONARY TECHNOLOGY Q2 25 8 20

6 15

4 10

2 5 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 12 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS 10 Q2 Q2 8 8 6 6 4 2 4 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 20 4 15 ENERGY REAL ESTATE Q2 3 10 2 5 Q2 1 0 -5 0 -10 -1 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 16 6 FINANCIALS UTILITIES 12 Q2 5 Q2 4 8 3 4 2 0 1 yardeni.com -4 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 13 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (% difference) Figure 19. 80 35 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS HEALTH CARE 70 30 60 50 Percent Difference 25 40 I/B/E/S vs S&P (1.4) (19.4) Q2 20 30 20 15 10 10 0 Q2 -10 5 -20 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 100 100 75 COMMUNICATION SERVICES INDUSTRIALS 75 50 25 50 0 Q2 (-2.4) 25 -25 -50 Q2 0 -75 (0.0) -25 -100 -125 -50 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 20 30 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 25 10 20 15 0 Q2 10 Q2 5 -10 (-5.1) (10.6) 0 -20 -5 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 30 100 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS 20 75 Capped at 80% 50 10 25 0 Q2 Q2 0 (-4.1) -10 (2.7) -25 -20 -50 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 150 150 ENERGY Capped at 100% and -100%. REAL ESTATE 100 125 100 50 75 0 Q2 50 -50 (31.6) Q2 (7.3) 25 -100 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 100 125 FINANCIALS UTILITIES 75 100 50 75 25 0 (30.9) 50 -25 Q2 Q2 25 -50 Capped at -100%. 0 -75 (-19.2) -25 -100 yardeni.com -125 -50 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 14 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (y/y % growth) Figure 20. 150 40 S&P 500 HEALTH CARE 120 Operating EPS (y/y %) (22.7) I/B/E/S (88.5) 30 90 Q2 (25.5) S&P (94.2) Q2 60 20 30 10 0 0 -30 -60 -10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 100 600 COMMUNICATION SERVICES INDUSTRIALS 75 Q2 Q2 500 50 400 25 300 0 (522.1) 200 -25 (316.8) -50 (73.1) 100 -75 (75.0) 0 -100 -100 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250 60 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 200 Q2 (46.3) Q2 45 150 (202.2) (50.6) 30 100 (173.5) 50 15 0 0 -50 -100 -15 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 30 200 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS Capped at 175%. 150 20 Q2 Q2 100 10 50 0 (18.7) 0 -10 (14.0) -50 (133.0) (141.2) -20 -100 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 300 40 ENERGY REAL ESTATE 250 Q2 Q2 200 (249.4) 20 150 (169.7) 100 0 50 0 (28.0) -50 -20 (28.0) -100 Capped at 250% and -100% Capped at 30% and -30%. -150 -40 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250 75 FINANCIALS UTILITIES Capped at -50% and 50%. 200 (157.4) 50 150 Q2 (108.1) 25 100 Q2 50 0 0 -25 -50 (12.9) -100 (-17.4) -50 Capped at 200% and -100% yardeni.com -150 -75 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 15 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating and SP Reported EPS Figure 21. 60 25 Q2 S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE Q2 HEALTH CARE 50 20

40 I/B/E/S Operating EPS 15 S&P Reported EPS 30 10

20 5

10 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 15 12 COMMUNICATION INDUSTRIALS 9 10 SERVICES Q2 6 5 Q2 3 0 0

-5 -3 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 16 30 14 CONSUMER INFORMATION Q2 25 12 DISCRETIONARY TECHNOLOGY Q2 10 20 8 15 6 10 4 2 5 0 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 9 12 Q2 8 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS 10 Q2 8 7 6 6 4 5 2 4 0 3 -2 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 30 5 20 ENERGY REAL ESTATE 4 10 3 Q2 Q2 0 2 -10 1 -20 0 -30 -1 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 15 8 FINANCIALS Q2 UTILITIES 12 6 9 Q2 4 6 2 3 0 0 yardeni.com -3 -2 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 16 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth) Figure 22. 100 35 Q2 80 S&P 500 OPERATING HEALTH CARE 30 (22.7) 25 60 EARNINGS PER SHARE Q2 20 40 (yearly percent change) 15 20 10 0 5 -20 (88.5) 0 -40 -5 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 100 600 75 COMMUNICATION SERVICES Q2 INDUSTRIALS Q2 500 50 400 25 300 0 200 (522.1) -25 (73.1) 100 -50 0 -75 -100 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250 50 Q2 200 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Q2 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 40 150 30 100 (46.3) 20 50 10 0 -50 (202.2) 0 -100 -10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 30 150 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS Q2 20 Q2 100 10 (133.0) 50 0 0 -10 (18.7)

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 17 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth) Figure 23. 40 25 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE HEALTH CARE 30 20 (yearly percent change in 4-quarter sum) Q2 (17.8) Q2 20 (26.1) 15 10 10 0 5 -10 0 -20 -5 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 60 45 COMMUNICATION SERVICES INDUSTRIALS 45 30 30 (32.1) Q2 15 15 Q2 0 0 -15 -15 (-2.7) -30 -30 -45 -45 -60 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 45 40 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Q2 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 30 Q2 30 15 (28.3) 20 0 10 -15 (38.3) -30 0 -45 -10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 20 75 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS Q2 15 50 10 (10.5) Q2 (62.1) 25 5 0 0 -5 -25 -10 -50 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 150 10 ENERGY REAL ESTATE 100 (1.9) 5 50 (1.1) Q2 0 0 Q2 -5 -50 -100 -10 Capped at 100% and -100% -150 -15 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 75 15 FINANCIALS UTILITIES 60 Q2 10 45 (2.3) (61.2) 30 5 Q2 15 0 0 -5 -15 yardeni.com -30 -10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 18 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Four-quarter Operating Profit Margins Figure 24. 14 11.5 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN* HEALTH CARE Q2 12 11.0 (trailing 4-quarter, percent) Q2 10 (12.5) 10.5

8 10.0

6 9.5 (10.9) 4 9.0 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 18 11 COMMUNICATION SERVICES Q2 INDUSTRIALS 16 10 14 9 12 8 10 Q2 7 8 6 6 (17.3) (7.1) 4 5 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 9 26 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 8 Q2 24 Q2 7 22

6 20

5 18 (7.3) (23.8) 4 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 8.0 14 CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS Q2 7.5 Q2 12

7.0 10

6.5 8 (7.6) (11.7) 6.0 6 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 12 32 ENERGY REAL ESTATE 9 30 6

3 Q2 Q2 28 0 (3.0) (28.0) -3 26 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 20 15 FINANCIALS Q2 UTILITIES Q2 18 14 16 13 14 12 12 11 10 8 10 (18.5) (14.4) yardeni.com 6 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Operating margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.

Page 19 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Quarterly Operating Profit Margins Figure 25. 16 12.0 S&P 500 OPERATING HEALTH CARE Q2 11.5 14 PROFIT MARGIN* Q2 11.0 12 (quarterly, percent) 10.5 10 10.0 8 9.5 (13.7) (11.4) 6 9.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 14 COMMUNICATION INDUSTRIALS 12 18 Q2 SERVICES 10 Q2 14 8 10 6 4 6 2 (18.5) (9.1) 2 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 12 26 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INFORMATION Q2 10 TECHNOLOGY 24 8 Q2 22 6 20

* Operating margin in percent and based on latest quarterly earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.

Page 20 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Write-Offs Figure 26. 60 60 S&P 500 NET WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE 55 (dollars, 4-quarter sum) 55

50 50 S&P 500 Net Write-Offs 45 S&P Data* 45 I/B/E/S Data** 40 40

35 35

30 30

25 Q2 25

20 20 Q2 15 15

10 10

5 5 yardeni.com 0 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* S&P operating less S&P reported earnings per share. ** I/B/E/S operating less S&P reported earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported earnings) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating earnings).

Figure 27. 120 120 S&P 500 WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE (dollars, actual x 4 )

100 100 Write-Offs S&P Operating* (14.56) I/B/E/S Operating** (17.48) 80 80 yardeni.com

60 60

40 40

20 20 Q2 Q2

0 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Page 21 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Trailing Earnings Figure 28. 200 200 S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS I/B/E/S VS. S&P Q2 180 180 Q2

160 160 I/B/E/S (183.17) S&P (175.51) 140 140

120 120

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

yardeni.com 20 20 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 29. 30 30 S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS I/B/E/S VS S&P 25 25

20 20 Dollar Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPS 15 I/B/E/S less S&P 15

10 10 Q2 5 5

0 0

-5 -5 40 40 35 35 30 30 Percent Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPS 25 I/B/E/S divided by S&P 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 Q2 5 0 0 -5 -5 yardeni.com -10 -10 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poors and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 22 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Earnings With & Without Energy Figure 30. 475 475 S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITH & WITHOUT ENERGY: I/B/E/S data (billion dollars, quarterly) 425 Q2 425

375 375

325 325

275 275

225 I/B/E/S S&P 500 (445.9) 225 I/B/E/S S&P 500 ex-Energy (430.2) 175 175

125 125 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

450 450 S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITH & WITHOUT ENERGY: S&P data Q2 (billion dollars, quarterly) 400 400

350 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 SP S&P 500 (440.5) 150 SP S&P 500 ex-Energy (425.8)

100 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

475 475 S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITHOUT ENERGY: S&P and I/B/E/S data (billion dollars, quarterly) 425 Q2 425

375 375

325 325

275 275

225 225

175 I/B/E/S S&P 500 ex-Energy (430.2) 175 SP S&P 500 ex-Energy (425.8) yardeni.com 125 125 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 23 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues Figure 31. 30 30 25 S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE 25 20 (yearly percent change) Q2 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 Latest (21.7) -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 100 100 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data)* (yearly percent change) Q2 50 50 Latest (60.0)

0 0

yardeni.com -50 -50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Due to extreme values, Q4-2008’s -65.2% is capped at -40% and Q4-2009’s +198.9% is capped at 60%. Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 32. 25 Q2 25 S&P 500 REVENUES Q2 20 (yearly percent change) 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10 S&P 500 Revenues Aggregate* (24.4) -15 Per Share (21.7) -15

-20 -20

yardeni.com -25 -25 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Page 24 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues Figure 33. 1.8 18 S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & EARNINGS Q2 (trillion dollars, nsa, annualized) 1.6 16

1.4 14 Q2 1.2 12

1.0 10

.8 8

.6 6 S&P 500 Aggregate .4 Revenues* 4

Net Operating Income .2 (S&P data) 2

yardeni.com .0 0 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 34. 55 55 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE Q2 50 (dollars, quarterly) 50

45 45

40 S&P 500 Operating Earnings 40 I/B/E/S data (52.75) 35 S&P data (52.02) 35

30 30

25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0 yardeni.com -5 -5 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 25 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues Figure 35. 16 16 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN: S&P data vs. I/B/E/S data (percent, quarterly) 14 14 Q2

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 Operating Profit Margins 4 I/B/E/S Earnings Data (13.7) 2 S&P Earnings Data (13.5) 2

0 0

-2 -2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 36. 1650 1650 S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL Q2 1450 (S&P quarterly data) & FORWARD (I/B/E/S weekly data) 1450 (dollars, ratio scale)

1250 1250

1050 1050

Revenues Per Share 52-week Forward* 850 Actual (x4) 850

650 650

yardeni.com 450 450 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).

Page 26 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues Figure 37. 1800 1800 S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 1650 1650 9/9

21 22 1500 1500 Consensus Forecasts Annual Forward* 1350 1350

Lehman COVID-19 Collapse 1200 1200

1050 1050

yardeni.com 900 900 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year. Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. WHO declared global COVID-19 pandemic on 3/11/2020. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 38. 295 295 255 S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL OPERATING EARNINGS 255 (dollars, ratio scale) 215 Q29/9 215 175 175

135 135

95 95

Earnings Per Share 55 52-week Forward* (214.41) 55 I/B/E/S Operating (x4) (211.00)

yardeni.com 15 15 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 27 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues Figure 39. 225 225 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 9/9 200 (analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 21 200 22 175 175

Consensus Forecasts 150 Annual 150 Forward* 125 Lehman 125 Collapse

COVID-19 100 100

75 75

2021 2022 Frwd Sep 2 201.04 220.35 214.04 Sep 9 201.03 220.35 214.41 yardeni.com 50 50 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 40. 16 16 S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES (percent) 14 14 Q2 9/9

12 12

10 10

8 8 S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins Forward* (13.2) Operating (I/B/E/S data) (13.7) 6 6

4 4

yardeni.com 2 2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years. Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).

Page 28 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues Figure 41. 14 14 S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN (percent, dividing forward earnings by forward revenues) 9/9 13 21 13

22 12 12

11 11

10 10

9 9

8 Consensus Forecasts 8 Annual 52-week forward* (13.2) 7 7

yardeni.com 6 6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 29 / September 15, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

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