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Proc Soc‘THE Antiq WORST Scot 144 DISASTER (2014), 223–244 SUFFERED BY THE PEOPLE OF IN RECORDED HISTORY’ | 223

‘The worst disaster suffered by the people of Scotland in recorded history’: climate change, dearth and pathogens in the long

Richard Oram*

ABSTRACT Informing historical and archaeological discourse with environmental data culled from documentary and climate proxy records is transforming understanding of political, social economic and cultural change across the North Atlantic and European Atlantic regions generally. Limited record evidence DQGUHJLRQVSHFLÀFSUR[\GDWDKDVKLQGHUHGHQJDJHPHQWE\KLVWRULDQVRIPHGLHYDO6FRWODQGZLWKWKH exploration of environmental factors as motors for long term and large scale change and adoption of the interdisciplinary methodologies involved in their use. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the potential for such data and methodologies in providing context for the well-rehearsed narratives of political upheaval and socio-economic realignment that have characterised much past Scottish historical discourse.

In mainstream English and Western European ORQJ UHFRJQLVHG WKH LQÁXHQFH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PHGLHYDOKLVWRULRJUDSK\WKHUHLVDORQJVWDQGLQJ factors on the agricultural regimes of the 13th tradition of research and writing on the impact and 14th centuries, although the primary focus RIHQYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUVRQKXPDQVRFLHW\%HVW was on issues such as population pressure and represented in studies of the 14th century (eg soil fertility rather than any wider interplay of 7XFKPDQ3ÀVWHUHWDO WKLVWUDGLWLRQ anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic agency has its roots in 19th-century studies of the (eg Postan 1972: chapters 2–4). As a growing plague pandemic commonly known as the Great ERG\RISDODHRHQYLURQPHQWDODQGSUR[\FOLPDWH 0RUWDOLW\ HJ&UHLJKWRQ ([SORUDWLRQRIWKH GDWD KDV EHFRPH DYDLODEOH IURP WKH V immediate impact and long-term consequences onwards, that tradition has embraced the new of the pandemic has formed a central strand in HYLGHQFH DQG EHHQ UHFRQÀJXUHG E\ JUHDWHU PXFKPRGHUQKLVWRULFDOZULWLQJIURPWKHV LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\ LQWHUDFWLRQ VHH IRU H[DPSOH onwards, not least because of the wealth of WKHHVVD\VLQ&DYDFLRFFKL HG  %\ZD\ JUDSKLF SULPDU\ VRXUFH PDWHULDO DYDLODEOH IURP RI FRQWUDVW 6FRWWLVK PHGLHYDO KLVWRULRJUDSK\ most regions of but also because the ZLWK D KDQGIXO RI QRWHZRUWK\ H[FHSWLRQV KDV nature and manner of our ancestors’ responses IDLOHGWRHQJDJHZLWKHQYLURQPHQWDOGDWDRIWHQ to the plague hold up a mirror to contemporary FLWLQJ SRYHUW\ RI GRFXPHQWDU\ HYLGHQFH DV D H[SHULHQFH IURP 6SDQLVK LQÁXHQ]D $,'6 UHDVRQIRUDYRLGLQJH[SORUDWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWDO 6$56 DQG DYLDQ LQÁXHQ]D WR HEROD VHH IRU issues. As a consequence, the study of Scotland’s H[DPSOH =LHJOHU  6KUHZVEXU\  PHGLHYDO KLVWRU\ ODJV FRQVLGHUDEO\ EHKLQG Ormrod & Lindley (eds) 2003; Cantor 1997; research in , Ireland and across most of Herlihy 1997; Naphy & Spicer 2000 Cohn North Atlantic Europe, where interdisciplinary 2002; Jillings 2003; Benedictow 2004). English DQDO\VHV LQYROYLQJ KLVWRU\ DUFKDHRORJ\ DQG PHGLHYDO VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF KLVWRU\ KDV DOVR YDULRXVEUDQFKHVRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOVFLHQFHV

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KDYH UHYROXWLRQLVHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI KXPDQ 4XKHQ$OH[DQGHURXUN\QJHZDVGHGH HQYLURQPHQWLQWHUDFWLRQVDQGWKHLULQÁXHQFHRQ That Scotland lede in lauche and le, ZLGHUVRFLDOHYROXWLRQ Away was sons of alle and brede, ,WLVQRWWKHDLPRIWKLVSDSHUWRSURYLGHDQ 2IIZ\QHDQGZD[RIJDP\QDQGJOH HQYLURQPHQWDO KLVWRU\ RI PHGLHYDO 6FRWODQG RU /DLQJ HG ,,  HYHQMXVWRIWKHWKFHQWXU\LQ6FRWODQGWKDWLV a much larger task than can be addressed here. :\QWRXQ PD\ KDYH DGRSWHG WKH VWDQ]D IURP 5DWKHU WKH LQWHQWLRQ LV WR H[SORUH WKH QDWXUH YHUVHV FRPSRVHG RULJLQDOO\ LQ WKH XQFHUWDLQ RI WKH HYLGHQFH WKDW LV DYDLODEOH ZLWKLQ WKH \HDUV LPPHGLDWHO\ IROORZLQJ $OH[DQGHU·V GHDWK documentary record and place it alongside the LQ 0DUFK  %\ :\QWRXQ·V GD\ KRZHYHU YDULRXVIRUPVRISUR[\GDWDIRUFOLPDWHKLVWRU\ the lament for a lost ‘golden age’ had gained WR SURGXFH D V\QWKHWLF QDUUDWLYH 7KHUH ZLOO HYHQ JUHDWHU IRUFH WKURXJK D VXFFHVVLRQ RI remain gaps, particularly where the domestic HQYLURQPHQWDO VKRFNV ² FOLPDWH FKDQJH GHDUWK 6FRWWLVK UHFRUG LV VLJQLÀFDQWO\ GHÀFLHQW LQ DQGSDWKRJHQV²ZKLFKKDGWKURZQRYHUWUDGLWLRQDO WKHÀUVWKDOIRIWKHWKFHQWXU\EXWWKHVHFDQ OLYHOLKRRGV DQG VRFLDO V\VWHPV DQG UDYDJHG WKH EH ÀOOHG LQ SDUW E\ UHIHUHQFH WR WKH VRXUFHV human and animal populations of Scotland. DYDLODEOHLQDGMRLQLQJDUHDV HVSHFLDOO\QRUWKHUQ How prosperous was late 13th-century England and Ireland). It must be emphasised Scotland? Traditional reading of the historical WKDW WKLV SDSHU ZLOO UHPDLQ DQ H[DPLQDWLRQ RI record is that after the political factionalism of what happened not why it happened as it did. $OH[DQGHU·V PLQRULW\ ²  WKH NLQJGRP (QYLURQPHQWDO VFLHQWLVWV FDQ SRVLW ZK\ DQG HQMR\HG D JHQHUDWLRQ RI SHDFH VWDELOLW\ DQG how certain climate phenomena occurred; HFRQRPLF SURVSHULW\ %URZQ    ,QGHHG ZH FDQQRW KRZHYHU GHWHUPLQH H[DFWO\ ZK\ assessments of the wealth of Scotland in terms human populations chose to respond to those RIWKHYROXPHRIVLOYHUFRLQDJHLQFLUFXODWLRQRU phenomena in the way that they did. FDSLWDOLQWHQVLYH EXLOGLQJ SURJUDPPHV UHÁHFWHG Laments for the passing of ‘the Good Old in work at cathedrals and monasteries around the Days’ are common in any era, but it was long NLQJGRP RU LQYHVWHG E\ VHFXODU ORUGV LQ FDVWOH accepted that the rhymes bewailing the death of EXLOGLQJSURMHFWVSRLQWSULPDIDFLHWRDQHUDRI .LQJ $OH[DQGHU ,,, DQG WKH HQG RI KLV UHLJQ·V FRQWLQXRXV HFRQRPLF JURZWK DQG FRQÀGHQFH ¶JROGHQDJH·UHÁHFWHGDSRSXODUYLHZWKDWWKHUH that had been triggered and then sustained had been a genuine break from an era of peace by population growth and consumer demand and prosperity into one of protracted political (Mayhew 1990; Fawcett 2011: chapters 3 and 4). crisis and near disaster. The deteriorating All of this, it has been suggested, was built on a weather, wars, famine and pestilences of the 14th EHQLJQ FOLPDWLF UHJLPH WKDW SUHYDLOHG GRZQ WR FHQWXU\ SURYLGH FRQWH[W IRU WKH VHFRQG SDUW RI c 1300. Warmer and milder conditions beginning WKDWYLHZEXWWKHUHDUHPRXQWLQJTXHVWLRQVDERXW LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\ FRXSOHG ZLWK LQQRYDWLRQV the reality of the later 13th-century ‘golden age’ in agricultural technology, had increased the that supposedly died with the king. Although FDUU\LQJ FDSDFLW\ RI WKH ODQG GHOLYHUHG EHWWHU QRZ YLHZHG DV DQ DOOHJRULFDO UHIHUHQFH WR WKH \LHOGVDQGHQFRXUDJHGWKHH[SDQVLRQRIDJULFXOWXUH SROLWLFDOFULVHVDQGZDUVZKLFKÁRZHGIURPWKH to support a growing population (Dyer 2002: failure of the senior male line of Scotland’s royal FKDSWHUV ² 'XQFDQ  ²  YHULWDEO\ house at the close of the , it can be an age of abundance of ale and bread. Aspects VDLGWKDWWKHUHFXUUHQWEORZVRIH[WUHPHZHDWKHU RIWKLVLG\OOLFSLFWXUHKDYHORQJEHHQTXHVWLRQHG IDPLQHHSL]RRWLFDQGHSLGHPLFGLVHDVHLQWK KRZHYHU XVXDOO\ WKURXJK FRPSDULVRQV ZLWK and early 15th-century Scotland might as easily conditions in England since hard economic KDYHSURYLGHGLQVSLUDWLRQIRUWKHOLQHVRI$QGUHZ VWDWLVWLFDOHYLGHQFHLVDOPRVWZKROO\ODFNLQJIRU of Wyntoun’s Orygynale Cronykil of Scotland Scotland before the mid-14th century (Gemmill (1424): & Mayhew 1995). In England, by contrast, an

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DEXQGDQFH RI UHFRUG HYLGHQFH KDV SHUPLWWHG season (threatening further food shortages to construction of labourers’ wage and price series FRPH  DQG GHVWUXFWLYH JDOHV WKURXJK WKH ODWH LQ NH\ FRPPRGLWLHV IURP ZKLFK LQÁDWLRQDU\ autumn and early winter (Watt et al (ed) 1990: pressures – and their causes – can be modelled  7KHUHVXOWLQ²ZDVWKDW¶DOOSDUWVRI HJ 7KRUROG 5RJHUV ² 3KHOSV %URZQ Scotland suffered from a great famine caused by & Hopkins 1981; Campbell 2007; Clark 2008; WKHKDUYHVWEHLQJUXLQHG· :DWWHWDO HG  0XQUR 6XFKVHULHVKDYHHQDEOHGLWWREH   6LPLODU ZHDWKHU FRQWLQXHG WKURXJK  shown that English population growth slowed in including the gales that battered the Norwegian WKHODWHUWKFHQWXU\ZKLOHHQYLURQPHQWDOVWUHVV ÁHHWRII/DUJV :DWWHWDO HG  0RUH had increased (Campbell 2009; Campbell 2010). FDPHLQZKHQDPLOGGU\VXPPHUUDLVHG )RU 6FRWODQG WKH WUDGLWLRQDO SRVLWLYH YLVLRQ FDQ KRSHVRIDQDEXQGDQWKDUYHVWEXWGDVKHGWKHP also be challenged, despite the absence of the ÀUVW E\ SODQWHDWLQJ LQVHFW LQIHVWDWLRQV DQG KDUGQXPHULFDOHYLGHQFH 2UDPFKDSWHU  WKHQ E\ YLROHQW HDVWHUOLHV LQ ODWH 2FWREHU WKDW )DUIURPJRUJLQJWKHPVHOYHVRQ1DWXUH·VJLIWVLQ pounded the coast between the Tweed and the the later 13th century, it is more likely that much 7D\DQGFDXVHGWLGDOVXUJHVXSWKHULYHUHVWXDULHV RI6FRWODQG·VSRSXODWLRQOLYHGRQWKHSURYHUELDO WR ÁRRG ORZO\LQJ DJULFXOWXUDO ODQG :DWW HW DO knife-edge of subsistence. HG      :LQWHU ² EURXJKW :KDWLVWKHHYLGHQFHIRUOHVVWKDQIDYRXUDEOH VHYHUH FRQGLWLRQV WKDW FRQWLQXHG LQWR D FROG HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH ODWHU V" ZHWDQGZLQG\VSULQJDQGVXPPHUIRULQ A shift in the northern hemisphere’s general which it was reported ‘there was a high death- FOLPDWHV\VWHPLVUHÁHFWHGLQ(XURSHDQFKURQLFOH rate amongst animals, that is amongst red deer, VRXUFHV IURP  RQZDUGV WKH HYHQWV RI WKDW fallow deer, forest ponies, but most of all sheep’, year signalling the beginning of a trend that and that ended with a winter so harsh that the accelerated towards the end of the decade. For ground could not be ploughed between the end of Scotland, the Lanercost chronicler’s account 1RYHPEHUDQGWKHEHJLQQLQJRI)HEUXDU\ stands as an indication of the local impact: WRSUHSDUHIRUVRZLQJ :DWWHWDO HG     ,Q QRUWKHDVWHUQ ,UHODQG WKH Annals In this year there was so great corruption of the air, of Ulster recorded ‘great, unbearable famine’ and inundation of rain, throughout the whole of (Annals of Ulster   7KH QHZ GHFDGH England and Scotland, that both crops and hay were brought continuing misery, with general famine nearly all lost. And some men’s corn rotted in the in 1270 affecting Britain and Ireland (Annals of ÀHOGV IURP WKH GD\ RI KDUYHVW VRPH PHQ·V FRUQ shaken out by the wind, grew again under the straw; Loch CéAnnals of Connacht: 1270.14) VRPHPHQ·VKDUYHVWZDVVRODWHWKDWWKH\GLGQRWUHDS DQGLQ¶DJUHDWODFNRISURGXFWLYLW\RIWKH LWXQWLODERXWWKHIHVWLYDORI6W0DUWLQ>1RY@RU land and unfruitfulness of the sea, as well as later… turbulence of the air, as a result of which many 6WHYHQVRQ HG  people fell ill and many animals died’ (Watt et al HG  ,WZDVQRWMXVW6FRWODQG Consequently, 1257 saw ‘the greatest dearth of WKDW H[SHULHQFHG WKHVH GLVDVWHUV IRU %RZHU·V grain’ throughout the whole of the British Isles source reported that ‘great famine hit , ZLWK VKRUWDJHV RI ÁRXU IRU EUHDG DQG PDOW IRU England, Scotland and many areas, for the cattle EUHZLQJDQGVHYHUHVRFLDOGLVORFDWLRQDULVLQJIURP mostly died, the crops died and the poor died of the tensions produced by the famine conditions WKHLUSRYHUW\· :DWWHWDO HG   6WHYHQVRQ HG O/XDUG HG  English records suggest a continuation of such &DPSEHOO )RUDWKFHQWXU\ conditions into the , with harsh winters and account incorporated into Walter Bower’s ODWHVSULQJVSURGXFLQJGHOD\HGKDUYHVWVDQGWKH Scotichronicon records food shortages and price resulting risks of reduced yields in wet and windy LQÁDWLRQVWHPPLQJIURPKDUYHVWIDLOXUHVYLROHQW DXWXPQV 6WHYHQVRQ HG  +DUGO\WKH VWRUPVWKURXJKRXWDGU\VXPPHUDZHWKDUYHVW SLFWXUH¶2IIZ\QHDQGZD[RIJDP\QDQGJOH·

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WKURXJKRXW WKH UHLJQ RI $OH[DQGHU ,,, WKDW KDV   6XFK DQQXDOLVHG PXOWLSUR[\ GDWD passed into popular tradition. indicates that there was a long period of higher Interpretation of the wider climatic situation annual mean temperatures that began before ad IURP VXFK JHQHULF FKURQLFOH HYLGHQFH DORQH LV 1000 and continued into the later 13th century – problematical and, unlike England, there is an ZKDWLVUHIHUUHGWRDVWKH¶PHGLHYDOZDUPSHULRG· DEVHQFHRISRSXODWLRQSULFHDQGZDJHGDWD²HYHQ RU¶PHGLHYDOFOLPDWHDQRPDO\·>KHUHDIWHU0&$@ DIWHUWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHUHJXODU([FKHTXHU5ROO ²EXWZLWKLQWKLVWLPHIUDPHERWKSUR[\GDWDDQG sequence in the late 1350s – that can be used to historical accounts are punctuated regularly both offer corroboration and model long-term impacts E\FROGHSLVRGHVDQGE\H[WUHPHZHDWKHUHYHQWV RIVXFKHYHQWV$ORQJVLGHGDWDHPEHGGHGLQWKH A synthesis of the data permits the general QDUUDWLYHVRXUFHVKRZHYHUSUR[\HQYLURQPHQWDO WUHQG LQ ZHDWKHU HYHQWV WKDW ZHUH GULYHQ E\ PHDVXUHV FDQ RIIHU D ORQJWHUP SHUVSHFWLYH these climatic shifts to be seen quite clearly. WKDWPD\JLYHFRQWH[WIRUHYHQWVUHSRUWHGLQWKH A sharp episode of cooling in the 9th and 10th KLVWRULFDO UHFRUG DQ DSSURDFK H[HPSOLÀHG IRU centuries opens the period. It is recorded in WKH(QJOLVKH[SHULHQFHLQWKHZRUNRI3URIHVVRU KXPDQ H[SHULHQFH LQ FKURQLFOH DFFRXQWV DQG Bruce Campbell (Campbell 2009; see also Baillie Norse sagas – and in the ice core data in the 1999). It is, of course, research into current HYLGHQFH IRU DQ LPPHQVH YROFDQLF HUXSWLRQ LQ JOREDO FOLPDWH FKDQJH WKDW KDV GULYHQ IRUZDUG southern Iceland that produced some 220 million the interrogation of palaeoclimate records; these tonnes of sulphate aerosols which, combined DGYDQFHVKDYHXVHGDYDULHW\RIGLIIHUHQWSUR[LHV ZLWK DWPRVSKHULF ZDWHU YDSRXU FUHDWHG DURXQG including ice-core, ocean sediment and tree-ring 450 million tonnes of dilute sulphuric acid that data (eg Baillie & Brown 2005; Briffa 2000; circulated the planet in the troposphere. More Briffa et al 1998; Briffa et al 1999; Dawson et al recent measured episodes permit us to infer what 2007; Oppenheimer 2003; Strothers 2000). Many WKHLPSDFWRIVXFKDQHYHQWPLJKWKDYHEHHQRQ RIWKHVHGDWDDUHUHJLRQVSHFLÀFEXWDV\QWKHVLVRI the global climate; the planet-wide cooling which GLIIHUHQWVRXUFHVFDQEHXVHGWRH[DPLQHFOLPDWLF resulted from the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo FKDQJHVERWKRYHUZLGHUVSDWLDODUHDVDQGORQJHU in the Philippines, less than one-tenth of the temporal periods. For the period c 1150–c  scale of the 10th-century Icelandic eruption (Self WKHUHDUHFOLPDWLFSUR[LHVZLWKDQQXDORUVHDVRQDO HW DO   VXJJHVWV WKDW WKHUH PD\ KDYH EHHQ UHVROXWLRQORFDWHGRYHUDZLGHJHRJUDSKLFUDQJH decades of instability, marked by colder winters DFURVV WKH QRUWKHUQ KHPLVSKHUH 7KH SUR[LHV and, probably, by wet summers memorable for employed as summer and winter temperature acidic rainfall that stunted growing crops. As this indicators – Ural and Siberian tree-ring data episode faded, temperatures again climbed to (Briffa et al 2001) and the Greenland Ice Cap produce an era of milder conditions that spanned UHVSHFWLYHO\ HJ $GGHUOH\  6LPSVRQ  the 11th and 12th centuries. Dawson et al 2007; Vinther et al 2003) – are, 6DJD GHVFULSWLRQV RI H[WHQVLYH VHD LFH HDVW REYLRXVO\GLVWDQWWR6FRWODQGDQGVKRXOGQRWEH RI *UHHQODQG LQ WKH V SURYLGH FRQWH[W IRU XVHGDVDEVROXWHLQGLFDWRUVRIFOLPDWLFYDULDELOLW\ historically attested episodes of low winter here, due to the ameliorating or worsening temperatures and increased storminess in these effects of other oceanic and atmospheric factors islands, especially between 1233–4 and 1248, a WKHIXUWKHUUHPRYHGDORFDOHLVIURPWKHFRQWH[W period characterised by cold, icy winters peppered in which the data was obtained. The approach ZLWKYLROHQWVWRUPVLQ%ULWDLQDQG,UHODQG7KHQ most commonly pursued, therefore, is to contrast the 1250s brought recurring drought conditions – Northern Hemisphere/North Atlantic summer ¶WKHJUHDWHVWKHDWDQGGU\QHVV·LQ 6WHYHQVRQ temperatures from dendrochronological analyses: (ed) 1839: 57) – alternating with saturation for VWDEOH LVRWRSH UHFRUGV SURYLGLQJ DQ LQGH[ RI much of the British Isles, as already noticed for UHODWLYH ZLQWHU ¶VHYHULW\· IURP LFH FRUH GDWD  6WHYHQVRQ HG  $WUHQGWRZDUGV DQG IRU DQ DQQXDOLVHG ORQJPXOWLSUR[\ PHDQ PRUH XQVWDEOH FRQGLWLRQV ZDV HYLGHQWO\ DOUHDG\ (Crowley & Lowery 2000; Oram & Adderley established but profound and lasting change

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RFFXUUHGLQ+LJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIYROFDQLF Then, in 1314/15, a dramatic change occurred sulphates found in ice cores from Greenland and with the beginning of what has been labelled the $QWDUFWLFD LQGLFDWH WKDW DQRWKHU PDMRU YROFDQLF ‘Dantean Anomally’ (Brown 2001: 251–4), with HUXSWLRQ QRZ LGHQWLÀHG DV D  HUXSWLRQ WKHVXPPHUVWXUQLQJFROGDQGGHOLYHULQJDOPRVW RI*XQXQJ5LQMDQLRQWKHLVODQGRI/RPERNLQ continual frontal systems, with unprecedented ,QGRQHVLD H[SHOOHG YDVW DPRXQWV RI PDWHULDO rainfall across the British Isles that resulted in late, LQWR WKH DWPRVSKHUH VXIÀFLHQW WR HQWUHQFK WKH PHDJUHKDUYHVWVZLWKVKRUWDJHVRIJUDLQIRUKXPDQ downward spiral of climatic cooling (Briffa et FRQVXPSWLRQDQGIRGGHUIRUOLYHVWRFN &DPSEHOO al 1998; Dawson et al 2007; Oppenheimer 2003; ²²-RUGDQ².HUVKDZ 6WURWKHUV   $ UDSLG VRXWKZDUG H[WHQVLRQ   (YLGHQFH IURP WKH *UHHQODQG LFH FRUHV of sea ice off Greenland again heralded poor indicates that this episode stemmed from a rapid VXPPHUVDQGVHYHUHZLQWHUVIRU%ULWDLQWKURXJK rise in North Atlantic ocean-surface temperatures WKH V V DQG V LOOXVWUDWHG E\ LQ WKH VXPPHU PRQWKV DQ RYHUKHDWLQJ WKDW Bower’s account of food-shortages and storms continued through the winter to trigger an upward LQVXPPHUIROORZHGE\DZHWDXWXPQDQG spiral in temperatures and a concomitant increase stormy winter (Watt et al (ed) 1990: 325). in atmospheric moisture. These conditions What climate processes were behind these peaked around 1318–19 but it was not until 1325 HYHQWV" $ FRPELQDWLRQ RI DWPRVSKHULF DQG that a further change was manifest in the form of RFHDQLFFLUFXODWLRQV\VWHPVGULYHFOLPDWLFVKLIWV a return to summer droughts. This episode was OLNH WKRVH H[SHULHQFHG E\ 6FRWODQG EHWZHHQ VKRUWOLYHG KRZHYHU ZLWK VRPH LQGLFDWLRQ RI D c 1250 and c 1400 (see eg Mayewski et al 1994; return, by the early 1330s, to the wet conditions Dawson et al 2007). Changes in ocean surface RIWKHSUHYLRXVGHFDGHEXWWKLV\LHOGHGVZLIWO\WR WHPSHUDWXUHVDIIHFWHGWKHSDWWHUQRIHDVWÁRZLQJ DSOXQJHWRWKHORZHVWWHPSHUDWXUHVH[SHULHQFHG Atlantic weather systems reaching the British across the North Atlantic region since before Isles. In particular, ocean-surface warming 1000. While this plunge in temperatures has increased atmospheric moisture and triggered been described as ‘a period of polar cooling LQFUHDVHV LQ VWRUPLQHVV ZLWK VRPH H[WUHPH that is minor by glacial standards’ (Mayewski VXPPHU ZLQG DQG UDLQ HYHQWV DQG SHULRGV RI et al 2004: 252), it was the catalyst for a series H[WUHPH KHDW RU FROGQHVV RIWHQ VHHQ LQ UHFRUGV of dramatic changes in social organisation and of hot, wet summers and prolonged snow and economic structures in Scotland, Ireland, Iceland ice in late winter (Dawson et al 2007: 431). and Greenland (Dugmore et al 2007; Dugmore &RQYHUVHO\H[WHQVLRQRIWKHVRXWKZDUGUDQJHRI HW DO  /\RQV  0F*RYHUQ HW DO  sea ice increases the incidence of winter storms 0F*RYHUQ HW DO  2UDP  2UDP  as the cold surface temperatures leads to the high Adderley 2008; Oram & Adderley 2010). The surface air pressures associated with anticyclonic FXPXODWLYHHIIHFWRIWKHVHH[WHQGHGHSLVRGHVRYHU circulation. This draws cold air further south many years had been more pronounced than the WR FROOLGH ZLWK ZDUPHU PRLVW DLU PRYLQJ HDVW traumas created by shorter periods of year-to-year across the Atlantic. The result is stormy winters YDULDWLRQ DQGFROGODWHVSULQJVDGYHUVHVXPPHUJURZLQJ :KLOH FRQVLGHUDEOH GHEDWH UHPDLQV RYHU WKH FRQGLWLRQV DQG ZHW DQG GHOD\HG KDUYHVWV 7KDW H[DFW FKURQRORJLFDO UDQJH WR ZKLFK WKH WHUP WUHQGZDVDOUHDG\HYLGHQWDFURVV$OH[DQGHU,,,·V VKRXOG EH DSSOLHG WKH FOLPDWLF FRROLQJ HYLGHQW so-called ‘golden age’, but from around 1300, WKURXJKWKHWKFHQWXU\GHVSLWHVRPHUHFRYHU\ the shift towards colder annual temperatures in in temperatures between c 1350 and c 1420, can the northern hemisphere became entrenched, EHVHHQDVWKHÀUVWVWDJHRIWKHVRFDOOHG¶OLWWOHLFH signifying the ‘end’ of the MCA. Anticyclonic DJH·>/,$@WKDWODVWHGXQWLOWKHPLGGOHRIWKHWK circulation established a seasonal pattern of harsh century (Whittington 1985; for general discussion, DQGELWWHUO\FROGZLQWHUVGHOD\HGDQGUHODWLYHO\ see Fagan 2000; Mann 2002). Again, as with the cool springs; hot and dry summers and warm, wet JHQHULF ¶PHGLHYDO FOLPDWH DQRPDO\· ODEHO WKH DXWXPQV IURP DURXQG  3ÀVWHU HW DO   LIA was not a period of unmitigated climatic

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deterioration and relentless cold weather. The LQWHUHVWVWHPSHVWVDUHUHFRUGHGLQ)HEUXDU\ 1350s had seen unprecedented low temperatures, ZKHQ DQ (QJOLVK ÁHHW FDPH WR JULHI RII 1RUWK EXW LW ZDV D YHU\ FROG HSLVRGH WKDW FRPPHQFHG %HUZLFN :DWWHWDO HG  6XFK soon after 1400 that helped to entrench the GHYDVWDWLQJZLQWHUVWRUPVFRQWLQXHGWKURXJKWKH effects of the cooling. Winter storms in the North following decades, one in 1372 being $WODQWLFEHFDPHPRUHUHJXODUPRUHYLROHQWDQG GHVFULEHGDVEULQJLQJH[WHQVLYHSURSHUW\GDPDJH more prolonged, and the south-west to north-east DV ZHOO DV ÁDWWHQLQJ ZRRGODQG :DWW HW DO HG  FLUFXODWLRQ RI ZDUPHU ZDWHU WKDW KHOSHG WR JLYH  7KHVXPPHUVKRZHYHUZHUHHTXDOO\ the British Isles their generally milder climate EDGDQGKDUYHVWVVXIIHUHGIURPODWHKHDY\UDLQV PRYHGVRXWKDVFROGHUSRODUFLUFXODWLRQV\VWHPV DPDMRUHYHQWUHVXOWLQJLQVHYHUHÁRRGLQJDIIHFWHG H[WHQGHG 0D\HZVNLHWDO 7KHGLUHFWUHVXOW much of Lothian in 1358 (Watt et al of this was that the North Atlantic winter storm HG   WUDFN WKDW SDVVHG RYHU ,FHODQG DQG WKH )DURH What impact might such climatic deterioration ,VODQGVEHFDPHÀ[HGLQVWHDGRYHU%ULWDLQVWRUP KDYHKDGRQSROLWLFDOHYHQWVIURPRQZDUGV" V\VWHPV ÁRZLQJ LQ IURP WKH $WODQWLF FROOLGHG 7ZR H[DPSOHV IURP WKH :DUV RI ,QGHSHQGHQFH with cold air drawn by anticyclonic circulation FDQ SURYLGH VRPH LOOXVWUDWLRQ RI SRWHQWLDOO\ from Russia, resulting in snow. The sea ice ZHDWKHULQÁXHQFHG RXWFRPHV (QYLURQPHQW retreated northward slightly in the middle of the related economic pressure probably played , but it would be wrong to call this a DV VLJQLÀFDQW D SDUW LQ 6FRWWLVK UHVLVWDQFH WR period of warmer mean temperatures; it was less ’s treasurer in Scotland, cold than what had preceded it. +XJK&UHVVLQJKDP·VHIIRUWVWRUDLVHWD[LQ² In contrast to the detailed records of the RUWRVHFXUHUHFUXLWVWRVHUYHLQ)UDQFH %DUURZ socio-economic impact on England and Ireland 3UHVWZLFK² 5HFRUGV RI WKH SRRU ZHDWKHU LQ WKH ÀUVW TXDUWHU RI WKH RIFRQWLQXLQJVHYHUHZLQWHUVSRRUVXPPHUVDQG WKFHQWXU\OLWWOHFRPSDUDEOHHYLGHQFHVXUYLYHV IDLOHG KDUYHVWV WKURXJKRXW %ULWDLQ LQWR WKH PLG for Scotland. Dire accounts from Ireland and V 6WHYHQVRQ HG      QRUWKHUQ(QJODQGKRZHYHUDOORZOLWWOHGRXEWWKDW 157, 158; Watt et al (ed) 1991: 41), coupled 6FRWODQG·VH[SHULHQFHZDVVLPLODU -RUGDQ with indications of outbreaks of sheep scab in 97–103, 117–20, 171–7; McNamee 1997: 105– Scotland during the same period, suggest that it 15). The well-informed Lanercost chronicler was was not simply insurgency at work. Quite simply, one of the few authorities to comment on crop WKHUHPD\KDYHEHHQOLWWOHZLWKZKLFKWRSD\DQG failures and famine in southern Scotland, noting Wallace and Murray capitalised on economic WKDWLQWKHUHZDV¶PRUWDOLW\RIPHQWKURXJK GLVWUHVVWRUHFUXLWVROGLHUV(QYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUV hunger and pestilence, unheard of in our times’ PRUHREYLRXVO\DIIHFWHGWKHRXWFRPHRIPLOLWDU\ 6WHYHQVRQ HG  7RZDUGVWKHHQGRI RSHUDWLRQV LQ WKH %UXFH EURWKHUV· LQYDVLRQ RI WKLV SKDVH %RZHU UHFRUGHG D VHYHUH ZLQWHU LQ Ireland in 1315–18 (McNamee 1997: chapter 5). 1321–2, ‘which was a sore trial to men and killed +RSHV RI DQ HDV\ YLFWRU\ DIWHU LQLWLDO VXFFHVVHV RIIQHDUO\DOOWKHLUDQLPDOV· :DWWHWDO HG  were dashed as much by climatic deterioration  3ROLWLFDOXSKHDYDOVDQGZDUVWKDWUHVXPHGLQ DVE\WKHIDLOXUHRIWKH*DHOLF,ULVKWRMRLQZLWK WKHVSUHRFFXSLHGWKHIHZDFWLYHFKURQLFOHUVLQ the Scots against the English. The opening of the Scotland in the second quarter of the 14th century, FDPSDLJQFRLQFLGHGZLWKWKHVWDUWRIVHYHQ\HDUV EXW (QJOLVK DQG ,ULVK VRXUFHV UHYHDO D UHWXUQ RI of almost unbroken harsh winters, poor summers weather conditions that had produced famine DQG IDLOHG KDUYHVWV DFURVV QRUWKHUQ (XURSH between 1315 and 1322 (Annals of Connacht: in which as much as 10% of the population Annals of Loch SHULVKHG %DUHO\ DEOH WR IHHG WKHPVHOYHV WKH Cé: 1328.2, 1328.9, 1335.5, 1339.8). The bitterly ,ULVK SHDVDQWV UHVSRQGHG YLROHQWO\ WR WKH 6FRWV· cold winter of 1349–50 passed without comment attempts to collect the supplies promised by their in Scottish sources but, probably because the DOOLHV 1R VLPLODU GDWD VXUYLYHV WR LOOXVWUDWH WKH HYHQW ZDV HVSHFLDOO\ GDPDJLQJ WR (QJOLVK impact of these famine years on Scotland, but

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JLYHQWKHUHFRUGHGH[SHULHQFHDURXQGWKHZHVWHUQ DQG KXPDQ SODJXHV ZDV OLQNHG WR WKH PDMRU and northern coasts of Ireland and in northern FOLPDWLF HYHQWV RI WKH SHULRG DUH QRW ZLGHO\ England, it is unlikely that Scotland fared any accepted amongst academics, but traditional better; King Robert had little to send to aid his H[SODQDWLRQV IRU WKHLU QDWXUH DQG VSUHDG DUH brother other than still more mouths to feed. equally questionable. Widespread murrains 7KH *UHDW (XURSHDQ )DPLQH DV WKLV VHYHQ DIÁLFWHGFDWWOHLQ(QJODQGLQDQGWKHQVKHHS \HDU HYHQW LV QRZ NQRZQ LV GLVFXVVHG PRVW in 1254, with reports of up to one half of the often in terms of catastrophically low arable ÁRFNVSHULVKLQJDQGLQZKHQWKHGLVHDVH \LHOGV D YLHZ EDVHG RQ WKH EHWWHU UHFRUGV WKDW struck in the aftermath of a mild but wet winter KDYH VXUYLYHG IURP FHUHDOSURGXFLQJ UHJLRQV /XDUG HG  (SL]RRWLFVPD\KDYH -RUGDQ.HUVKDZ /DWHFROGVSULQJV EHHQUHVSRQVLEOHIRUXQXVXDOOHYHOVRIPRUWDOLW\ DQG ZHW VXPPHU ZHDWKHU KRZHYHU GLG QRW amongst wild animals and domesticates across MXVW OHDG WR IDOOLQJ DUDEOH \LHOGV IRU DOO SODQW 6FRWODQG UHFRUGHG DV HDUO\ DV  DQG  growth was affected. While grass will continue :DWWHWDO HG  EXWWKHVH WR JURZ LQ HYHQ FRPSDUDWLYHO\ SRRU VXPPHU LQFLGHQWV DOVR FRLQFLGHG ZLWK XQXVXDOO\ VHYHUH time conditions, the degree of growth is affected winters and associated dearths. Like the 1252 E\ GURXJKW RU ZHW VXQOLJKW DYDLODELOLW\ DQG and 1258 episodes in England, the coincidence temperature; the minimum growing temperature RI WKH ZHDWKHU HYHQWV RI  DQG D OLYHVWRFN IRU JUDVV LV ƒ& /RQJVWHPPHG JUDVVHV DV disease outbreak affecting Lothian – referred to KDUYHVWHGIRUKD\DUHDOVRDVSURQHWRÁDWWHQLQJ as lungessouth²LVVWULNLQJ 6WHYHQVRQ HG  E\ VHYHUH ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV DFFHOHUDWLQJ WKH 85), but the 1328 outbreak in north-east Scotland spoiling of the crop through fungal growth, KDVQRVXFKREYLRXVFRUUHODWLRQ 6WXDUW %XUQHWW URWWLQJDQGLQVHFWLQIHVWDWLRQ -RUGDQ  HGV  %RWKHSLVRGHVKRZHYHUFDPH *UDVVJURZWKLVOLNHO\WRKDYHUHDFWHGDGYHUVHO\ DWWKHHQGRISURWUDFWHGSHULRGVRIFRPSDUDWLYHO\ during the Dantean Anomaly and assessment of SRRU FRQGLWLRQV DQG PD\ UHÁHFW WKH FXPXODWLYH the impact of these crisis years is that hay crops HIIHFWV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO VWUHVV RQ SDVWXUH DQG failed, summer pastures in the uplands became OLYHVWRFN$QLPDOKHDOWKZDVRIFULWLFDOFRQFHUQ less capable of sustaining the numbers of animals IRUDVRFLHW\KHDYLO\GHSHQGHQWXSRQWKHLQFRPH JUD]HG WKHUH SUHYLRXVO\ DQG ZLQWHU SDVWXUHV GHULYHGIURPOLYHVWRFN7KHH[WHQWRIWKDWFRQFHUQ EHFDPHVWUHVVHGDVWKHÁRFNVDQGKHUGVKDGWREH LVUHYHDOHGLQUR\DOPDQGDWHVLVVXHGLQWKHHDUO\ JUD]HGWKHUHIRUORQJHULQWRWKHVSULQJDQGIURP V DLPHG DW SUHYHQWLQJ WKH VSUHDG RI VKHHS HDUOLHULQWKHDXWXPQ:KHQWKHÀUVWHSLVRGHRI GLVHDVHVUHIHUUHGWRYDULRXVO\DVVFDE¶SLOVRXFKW· VHYHUHZHDWKHUHQGHGLQ²KRZHYHUWKHUH or ‘pluk’ (Barrow 1988: 298–9; Duncan (ed) ZDVQR¶ERXQFHEDFN·WKHFOLPDWHSUR[LHVVKRZ QR  that conditions remained cooler and slightly While scab was a recurring problem and wetter, and a trend towards a colder climate cattle murrains were recorded in Irish sources in generally continued into the middle of the 14th the and early (Annals of Connacht: century. The result of this was intense pressure   Annals of Innisfallen  RQ6FRWODQG·VSDVWRUDOHFRQRP\DQGWKHYLWDOFDVK Annals of Loch Cé: 1308:10; Annals of Ulster: crops – wool and hides – that it produced.  >UHFWH @  VRPHWKLQJ QHZ RFFXUUHG Terrible though the impact of war and famine LQ D GHYDVWDWLQJ SODJXH WKDW DIIHFWHG R[HQ DQG was, recurring outbreaks of widespread disease cattle across between c 1315 IURP WKH V DPRQJVW DQLPDOV HSL]RRWLFV  DQG  1HZÀHOG  6ODYLQ   +HUGV and human populations (epidemics) introduced LQ VRXWKHDVWHUQ (QJODQG ZHUH ÀUVW DIIHFWHG ELRORJLFDO DJHQF\ DV D FDXVDO IDFWRU LQ PDMRU LQ ² 1HZÀHOG  ²  ZLWK WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO VRFLRHFRQRPLF DQG FXOWXUDO outbreak reaching the border by 1319, change (Campbell 2008; Campbell 2009; SHUKDSV LQ LQIHFWHG OLYHVWRFN EURXJKW WR VXSSO\ &DPSEHOO  1HZÀHOG  6ODYLQ   Edward II’s army besieging Berwick, from where Arguments that the onset of these animal LWVSUHDGZHVWLQWR&XPEHUODQG 1HZÀHOG

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6ODYLQ6WHYHQVRQ HG   H[SHULHQFHRIPRUWDOLWLHV5HFRUGVRIVXEVHTXHQW DQGSUREDEO\QRUWKLQWR6FRWODQG 1HZÀHOG ZDYHV RI HSLGHPLF FRQFHQWUDWH RQ WKH /RZODQG 175). Again, the loss of Scottish records from DQGSULPDULO\(DVW&RDVWH[SHULHQFHVNHZLQJRXU this period renders it impossible to calculate its SHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHSODJXH·VSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWVDQG impact on Scotland, but references to ‘the great RIIHULQJQRFOHDUYLHZRIKRZVRFLHWLHVDZD\IURP cattle slaughter’ in Ireland, where it reached WKH]RQHVRIQXFOHDWHGVHWWOHPHQWZHUHDIIHFWHG LQ  1HZÀHOG  ² Annals of One Icelandic source, the Lawman’s Annal, Connacht: 1321.5, 1324.4,1325.7; Annals of Loch UHFRUGV KRZ ¶SHVWLOHQFH YLVLWHG WKH 6KHWODQG Cé    Annals of Ulster: Islands, the Orkney Islands, the and the >UHFWH@>UHFWH@ Faroe Islands’ (cf Benedictow 2004: 154), but >UHFWH@ DQG(QJOLVKPDQRULDODFFRXQWVWKDW it offers no comment on how it reached there, LQGLFDWHUHJLRQDOYDULDWLRQIURP]HURWREXW PRUWDOLW\ OHYHOV LQ WKRVH DUHDV RU RQ KRZ ORFDO ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH RI  RI WKH PHDW DQG GDLU\ society was affected by the loss of population. KHUGV DQG GUDXJKW R[HQ SHULVKLQJ JLYH D VWDUN $JDLQ ZH DUH UHTXLUHG WR H[WUDSRODWH OLNHO\ LPDJHRIWKHOLNHO\HIIHFW &DPSEHOO² consequences from the better-recorded English DQG )LJ $ 6ODYLQ   ²  3RXOWU\ DQG,ULVKH[SHULHQFH ZDVWKHQH[WVSHFLHVWREHDIIHFWHGLWEHLQJQRWHG $ VHFRQG HSLGHPLF RFFXUUHG LQ ² in Gesta Annalia that in 1344, fowls throughout which, according to Bower, killed one-third Scotland suffered a disease that so terribly spoiled RI WKRVH ZKR KDG VXUYLYHG WKH ÀUVW SHVWLOHQFH WKHLUÁHVKWKDWQRRQHPLJKWHDWWKHP 6NHQH HG  :DWWHWDO HG  7KLVHSLGHPLFPD\ 1872: 358). KDYHEHHQPRUHSURQRXQFHGLQWKHVRXWKHUQSDUW &DWWOH VKHHS DQG SRXOWU\ HSL]RRWLFV SDOHG RI 6FRWODQG .LQJ 'DYLG ,, DQG KLV KRXVHKROG LQWR LQVLJQLÀFDQFH EHKLQG WKH KXPDQ SDQGHPLF PRYLQJ QRUWK WR HVFDSH LQIHFWLRQ :HEVWHU HG  that affected Europe after 1347. Labelled by DQGQRV² EXWWKHUHLVOLWWOH the Scots as ‘the foul death of England’ when it RWKHU HYLGHQFH WR LQGLFDWH LWV UDWH DQG H[WHQW RI DIÁLFWHG WKHLU VRXWKHUQ HQHP\ LQ  +RUUR[ spread. One charter to the canons of Holyrood, (ed) 1994: 78), the taunt ended in 1349 when LVVXHGRQ)HEUXDU\UHIHUVWRLQMXULHVWR the plague entered Scotland. In contrast to the them on account of war and pestilence, but this is agonised outpourings of contemporary English FRXFKHGLQJHQHUDOWHUPVDQGGRHVQRWVSHFLÀFDOO\ DQG(XURSHDQZULWHUVWKHUHLVRQO\RQHVXUYLYLQJ identify actual losses on the abbey’s property as a 14th-century Scottish account of the epidemic, consequence of the epidemic (Innes (ed) 1840: no that embedded in the Gesta Annalia, which states 98). It was followed by a third occurrence in 1380 simply that ‘there was in the that Bower again claimed killed one-third of the so great a pestilence and plague amongst men … UHPDLQLQJSHRSOH :DWWHWDO HG  +H DV«KDGQHYHUEHHQKHDUGRIE\PDQ·WKDW¶IXOO\ DOVRDGGVWKDWWKHHSLGHPLFZDVEHOLHYHGWRKDYH a third of the human race was killed’, and that its been brought to Scotland by soldiers returning PDLQYLFWLPVZHUHDPRQJVW¶WKHPHDQHUVRUWDQG from a plundering raid into the north of England. common people’ rather than the magnates (Skene ,WKDVEHHQVXJJHVWHGWKDWWKHUHPD\KDYHEHHQDQ (ed) 1872: 359). It is reported in only slightly less outbreak in 1392, possibly spreading north from restrained terms in the early 15th-century accounts the epidemic that had begun in England in 1389 of Wyntoun and Bower, at the time of whose DQG ZKLFK UDYDJHG

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most modern academic histories of 14th- to the chronicler’s account, killed as many people as 17th-century Scotland and its impact beyond the LQ DQ\ SUHYLRXV SHVWLOHQFH ZLWK D VHFRQG ZDYH urban centres consistently downplayed. This is of the illness spreading from England later in an historiographical phenomenon that has been the year that caused the death within twenty- GLVFXVVHGHOVHZKHUH 2UDP²²  four hours of those infected (McGladdery 1990: EXWLWEHDUVUHVWDWHPHQWWKDWWKHUHLVQRHYLGHQFH  7KHGHVFULSWLRQRIWKLVHSLVRGHKDVOHGWR WRVXSSRUWYLHZVWKDWSODJXHZDVHYHUSXUHO\RU FRQMHFWXUDOLGHQWLÀFDWLRQRIWKHSDWKRJHQDWZRUN HYHQODUJHO\DQXUEDQSUREOHPLQODWHUPHGLHYDO as 9LEULR FKROHUDH – cholera (Creighton 1894: Scotland, or that rural populations were any less 6KUHZVEXU\ ,QGLYLGXDOO\VXFK VHYHUHO\DIIHFWHGE\SODJXHHSLGHPLFV DFFRXQWVRIIHUPHDJUHHYLGHQFHIRUHQYLURQPHQWDO Only Sandy Grant has offered the sober or population historians to build upon, but but unsubstantiated opinion that ‘plague still FXPXODWLYHO\ WKHLU UHFRUG SRLQWV WR D NLQJGRP DSSHDUVWRKDYHEHHQWKHZRUVWGLVDVWHUVXIIHUHG ZUDFNHG E\ VXFFHVVLYH ZDYHV RI HSLGHPLF by the people of Scotland in recorded history’ WKDW FXOOHG ÀUVW VRPHZKHUH EHWZHHQ  DQG *UDQW    7KHUH DUH QR H[DFW ÀJXUHV RQ FXUUHQW (XURSHDQ HVWLPDWHV   RI WKH for mortalities, but contemporary sources human population, and then kept the remaining speak of ‘fully a third of humanity’, and more, SRSXODWLRQDWWKHUHGXFHGOHYHO²RUORZHU²IRUWKH SHULVKLQJ VHH IRU H[DPSOH +RUUR[ HG  UHPDLQGHURIWKHPHGLHYDOSHULRG7KLVZDVWKH %HQHGLFWRZ  FKDSWHU   $W WKDW OHYHO 6FRWODQGRI$QGUHZRI:\QWRXQPRVWGHÀQLWHO\ now widely regarded as an underestimate, QRWDODQG¶RIIZ\QHDQGZD[JDP\QDQGJOH· ZKHQWKHÀUVWRXWEUHDNHQGHGLQ²DWOHDVW +RZ EH\RQG WKH REYLRXV GLG VXFK HQYLURQ 130,000 of Scotland’s estimated population of PHQWDO IDFWRUV FKDQJH PHGLHYDO 6FRWODQG" 7KH around 500,000 were dead. Plague mortalities DQVZHULVDWHYHU\OHYHOIURPVRFLDODQGHFRQRPLF declined steadily in later outbreaks, possibly political and cultural, to psychological – but because different pathogens were at work but SUREDEO\ WR UHJLRQDOO\ YDULDEOH H[WHQWV -LOOLQJV not distinguished by chroniclers who labelled all 2003: chapter 2). The eastern Lowlands were simply as ‘plague’ or ‘pestilence’, but new diseases buffered to some degree from the worst of the DOVRUDYDJHGWKHVXUYLYRUVLQWKHWKFHQWXU\,Q climatic deterioration and here the sharp plague-  IRU H[DPSOH WKHUH ZDV D PDMRU RXWEUHDN GULYHQFRQWUDFWLRQLQSRSXODWLRQPD\KDYHHDVHG of dysentery affecting eastern Scotland. Victims pressure on food supplies that the poorer growing died ‘LQSURÁXYLRYHQWULV· ¶ZLWKRXWÁRZLQJRIWKH conditions had brought, but population decline bowels’ ie diarrhoea) (Watt et al (ed) 1987: 45), DQGOLPLWHGDYDLODELOLW\RIUHVRXUFHVFRQWULEXWHG ZLWK ([FKHTXHU EXVLQHVV GLVUXSWHG RQ DFFRXQW to economic stagnation. In the north and west, the RI WKH RXWEUHDN DQG VHYHUDO GHDWKV UHSRUWHG DV IXOOLPSDFWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGZHDWKHUHYHQWV far north as Dundee, where the burgh’s bailies PRYLQJLQIURPWKH$WODQWLFVWLPXODWHGSURIRXQG ZHUHUHSRUWHGWRKDYHGLHGIURPLW %XUQHWW HG  FKDQJHDVLWDIIHFWHGEHKDYLRXUDWDOOVRFLDOOHYHOV 1880: 553, 579; 1970: 149). Bower’s (Oram 2010; Oram & Adderley 2008; Oram & description of the illness in 1420 that caused many Adderley 2010). The failure of long-established deaths and which the common people named ‘le ÀVKLQJEDVHG HFRQRPLHV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ ,VOHV TZKHZ·KDVOHGWRLWVEHLQJLGHQWLÀHGDVLQÁXHQ]D before the end of the 14th century, contraction :DWW HW DO HG     ,QÁXHQ]D LV DOVR RI WKH JUD]LQJ UHVRXUFHV IRU WKH FDWWOHEDVHG offered as the ‘swiftly-spreading pestilence’ that society and economy of much of the Highlands broke out in Edinburgh in 1431 and in SRVVLEO\ DOUHDG\ GHYDVWDWHG E\ WKH PXUUDLQ  +DGGLQJWRQLQ :DWWHWDO HG  and deterioration of soil conditions as increased 277; Creighton 1894: 234; Shrewsbury 1970: rainfall leached nutrients and accelerated erosion 150). The high mortalities of the famine of 1439 VWLPXODWHGPDMRUVRFLRSROLWLFDOUHRULHQWDWLRQ were accompanied by an epidemic labelled ‘the )RU GHHSZDWHU ÀVKLQJGHSHQGHQW FRPPXQL wame ill’ (stomach or intestinal disorder) in the WLHVVXFKDVKDGHYROYHGLQWKH2XWHU+HEULGHV so-called Auchinleck Chronicle that, according to by the 11th century, climate change brought

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potential disaster. The interplay of the Atlantic pastures in upland districts, capable of sustaining 0HULGLRQDO 2YHUWXUQLQJ &LUFXODWLRQ RI RFHDQLF JUD]LQJ KHUGV EHJDQ ODWHU LQ 0D\ DQG HQGHG water – transporting warmer water north and earlier in September. Nor could the pastures bear east across the Atlantic – with the North Atlantic JUD]LQJDFURVVWKHZKROHRIWKDWVKRUWHQHGSHULRG 2VFLOODWLRQ >KHUHDIWHU 1$2@ LQ WKH DWPRVSKHULF and it is possible that the summer pasturing of pressure systems (between the permanent cattle at upland shieling locations was reduced ,FHODQG ORZ SUHVVXUH DQG $]RUHV KLJK SUHVVXUH by up to 20% in some areas. Furthermore, the cells), was a key factor in the establishment of biomass produced was no longer capable of the MCA and the LIA that followed, through VXVWDLQLQJWKHQXPEHUVRIDQLPDOVWKDWPD\KDYH WKHLULQÁXHQFHRQZHVWHUO\ZLQGFRQGLWLRQVDQG been summered on these pastures during the HDVWZDUGV PRYHPHQW RI DWPRVSKHULF PRLVWXUH MCA. Coupled with this factor was the probable 3RVLWLYH1$2WKURXJKPXFKRIWKHWKWRPLG UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH DOWLWXGLQDO UDQJH RI JUD]LQJ DV 13th centuries brought a generally more benign FROGHUFRQGLWLRQVORZHUHGWKHHOHYDWLRQDWZKLFK weather regime to Atlantic Scotland, but from FURSV FRXOG EH JURZQ RU SDVWXUHV H[SORLWHG the 1250s the NAO weakened, resulting in a shift SURGXFWLYHO\(YHQZLWKPRGHUQWHFKQLTXHVWKH WRJUHDWHUYDULDWLRQEXWSULQFLSDOO\WRFRROHUDQG KHLJKWUDQJHRILPSURYHGODQGLQPRVWRIQRUWK wetter summers and intensely cold and stormy ZHVWHUQ6FRWODQGUDUHO\H[FHHGVP2'7KH ZLQWHUV 3DODHRHQYLURQPHQWDO HYLGHQFH IURP SUHVVXUH KRZHYHU ZDV QRW OLPLWHG RQO\ WR WKH H[FDYDWLRQV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ ,VOHV SDUWLFXODUO\ KLJKHUDOWLWXGHVXPPHUJUD]LQJIRUWKHUHGXFHG LQ 0RXQG  DW %RUQDLV LQ 6RXWK 8LVW UHYHDOV growing season also affected hay production in WKDW WKH FRPPHUFLDOLVHG H[SORLWDWLRQ RI PDULQH ORZOHYHO PHDGRZV GLPLQLVKLQJ VXSSOLHV RI ÀVK UHVRXUFHV FROODSVHG LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\ ZLQWHU IRGGHU ZKLOH ZLQWHU JUD]LQJ JHQHUDOO\ (Ingrem in 6KDUSOHV HG   ²  became stressed as herds had to be pastured there 6HUMHDQWVRQ² 7KHFROODSVHKDVEHHQ for longer periods each year. A further factor to OLQNHG WUDGLWLRQDOO\ WR SROLWLFDO XSKHDYDO LQ WKH be considered is the direct effect of poor weather region, but is now seen as relating to changes RQWKHSK\VLFDOFRQGLWLRQRIOLYHVWRFN6XVWDLQHG in ocean temperatures affecting the migratory periods of high winds and rain cause sheep and EHKDYLRXU RI SHODJLF VSHFLHV VXFK DV KHUULQJ cattle to lose body-heat and use more calories, XSRQ ZKLFK WKH ÀVKWUDGH ZDV EDVHG DQG WKH WKXV SUHYHQWLQJ WKHP IURP DFFXPXODWLQJ WKH impact of increased oceanic swell and storminess body-mass wanted for meat production or the fat RQ ERWK SRWHQWLDO ÀVKLQJGD\V DW VHD DQG ORVVHV UHVHUYHVWRDLGWKHPWKURXJKWKHZLQWHU&DORULH RIFUDIWDQGPHQ7KHFRQVHTXHQFHVIRUÀVKLQJ FRQVXPSWLRQ WR PDLQWDLQ ERG\KHDW PRUHRYHU dependent communities down Scotland’s western reduced production of milk needed both for seaboard of the historic changes in bottom-water IHHGLQJ FDOYHV DQG ODPEV DQG DOVR IRU GDLU\ WHPSHUDWXUHV LGHQWLÀHG LQ VHDORFKV VXFK DV SURGXFWV )RU D OLYHVWRFNGHSHQGHQW FXOWXUH WKH /RFK6XQDUWKDYH\HWWREHFRQVLGHUHG &DJH  consequences of a sustained period of climatic $XVWLQ /RQJWHUPWKHUHZDVQRUHFRYHU\ deterioration were dire. RI ODUJHVFDOH UHJLRQDO FRPPXQLW\ LQYROYHPHQW 6RPH PRGLÀHUV QHHG WR EH LQWURGXFHG LQWR LQGHHSZDWHUÀVKLQJLWEHLQJDUHFXUULQJWKHPH the image of unmitigated crisis. There is a deep- RIZULWHUVIURPWKHWKFHQWXU\RQZDUGVWKDWWKH VHDWHG YLHZ WKDW KD\PDNLQJ DQG VWRUDJH RI +HEULGHDQV·H[SORLWDWLRQRIWKHÀVKHULHVRIIWKHLU ZLQWHU IRGGHU IRU OLYHVWRFN ZDV UDUH JHQHUDOO\ VKRUHVZDVXQGHUGHYHORSHGDWEHVWEXWJHQHUDOO\ LQ SUH,PSURYHPHQW (UD 6FRWWLVK DJULFXOWXUH QRQH[LVWHQW 6HUMHDQWVRQ²  a perception based largely on conditions in )RU WHUUHVWULDO H[SORLWDWLRQ UHJLPHV WKH the Outer Hebrides where higher mean winter FRQVHTXHQFHVZHUHDVJUDYH,Q6FRWODQG·VXSODQG WHPSHUDWXUHVHQDEOHGVWRFNWREHJUD]HGRXWVLGH DUHDVWKHPRVWVLJQLÀFDQWDVSHFWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH through the winter months in most years. Records in the 14th century was a contraction of the annual RI KLJK OHYHOV RI PRUWDOLW\ LQ RYHUZLQWHUHG growing season. A shortening by around a month stock in the later 17th and 18th centuries are PHDQW WKDW VLJQLÀFDQW JUDVV JURZWK RQ VXPPHU commonly cited, usually supported by graphic

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H[DPSOHV RI DQHFGRWDO WHVWLPRQ\ *UHDW FDXWLRQ and that different responses ensue (Simpson QHHGV WR EH H[HUFLVHG LQ XVLQJ WKHVH DFFRXQWV et al 2002; Adderley et al 2008). In this instance, KRZHYHU DV PDQ\ ZHUH SURGXFHG LQ UHSRUWV the responses to a deterioration in stock conditions ZLWKVWURQJSUR,PSURYHPHQWDJHQGDVDQGHYHQ PD\ÀUVWKDYHVHHQHIIRUWVWRLQFUHDVHQXPEHUVWR greater caution should be used when attempting PDNHXSIRUVKRUWIDOOVLQYROXPHRIPHDWDQGPLON WR SURMHFW WKH FLUFXPVWDQFHV UHSRUWHG LQ VXFK EHLQJSURGXFHGEXWLWZRXOGKDYHEHHQHYLGHQW literature back into the Middle Ages. It is, for quickly that all this strategy was producing H[DPSOH YHU\ GLIÀFXOW WR FRUUHODWH WKH LPDJH was more ill-nourished animals and possibly a RI ORZ RYHUZLQWHULQJ VXUYLYDO DQG WKH SRRU KLJKHUPRUWDOLW\OHYHODPRQJVWWKHP$ORQJVLGH VSULQJWLPH FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH OLYHVWRFN ZLWK WKH herd management for dairying purposes, it was HYLGHQFHIRUODUJHVFDOHPRYHPHQWRIOLYHFDWWOH possibly out of these circumstances that the DVZHOODVSUHVHUYHGFDUFDVVHV IURPLVODQGDQG strategy of calf-slaughter, so well represented XSODQG WR ORZODQG GLVWULFWV DOUHDG\ LQ H[LVWHQFH in the archaeological record, was adopted or E\WKHPLGWKFHQWXU\ VHHIRUH[DPSOH%XUQHWW LQFUHDVHG 0F&RUPLFN  6HUMHDQWVRQ            ² $VHFRQGUHVSRQVHPD\KDYHEHHQ           DUHDVVHVVPHQWRIVRXPLQJOHYHOVWKHHVWLPDWHVRI (TXDOO\ SUREOHPDWLFDO LV WKH YLHZ RI WUDGLWLRQDO FDUU\LQJFDSDFLW\RIWKHJUD]LQJWKDWZHUHDSSOLHG agricultural practices in many highland and island WKURXJKRXW PHGLHYDO 6FRWODQG 5RVV   DUHDV DV ODFNLQJ LQ GHYHORSPHQW RI KD\PDNLQJ Stock numbers consequently fell, with the main DQG ZLQWHU IRGGHU SURYLVLRQ IRU VWRFN :DONHU impact at the lower end of the social spectrum,   7KH DEXQGDQFH WKURXJKRXW WKH PHGLHYDO where tenants of landlords who operated a rent- Gàidhealtachd of dail placenames, a generic term EDVHG H[SORLWDWLRQ UHJLPH EHFDPH OHVV FDSDEOH applied to hay-producing water meadows where RIPHHWLQJWKHLUREOLJDWLRQV7KHORVVRIYLVLEOH VHDVRQDO JUD]LQJ IRU FDWWOH FRXOG EH SURYLGHG wealth and social prestige, and the ability to FRXSOHGZLWKVHUYLFHREOLJDWLRQVRIZLQQLQJDQG VXVWDLQWKHFRPSOH[VXSSRUWV\VWHPVXSRQZKLFK OHDGLQJ KD\ SURYLVLRQ RI KD\ DV IHHG IRU VWRFN an elite culture of conspicuous consumption and in upland districts and the keeping of fodder in display was carried, which that declining income KD\\DUGV LQ VXUYLYLQJ HVWDWH UHQWDOV IURP WKH HQWDLOHG UHTXLUHG UDGLFDO EHKDYLRXUDO FKDQJH late 15th century onwards, suggests an altogether LI LW ZDV WR EH DGGUHVVHG HIIHFWLYHO\ VHH 2UDP PRUHIDYRXUDEOHSLFWXUHWKDQLVSUHVHQWHGE\WKH & Adderley 2008; Oram & Adderley 2010 for ,PSURYHPHQWOLWHUDWXUH 5RJHUVYROL discussion). YROLL²² 7KLVPRUHSRVLWLYH $UDEOH UHJLPHV WRR IDFHG VLJQLÀFDQW YLHZ KRZHYHU DOVR QHHGV WR EH WHPSHUHG ZLWK problems, not least in the lowering of altitudes at UHFRJQLWLRQWKDWWKHUHJLPHUHÁHFWHGLQWKHUHQWDOV ZKLFKFHUHDOSURGXFWLRQZDVYLDEOH7KHFOHDUHVW was one where hay and winter fodder were largely HYLGHQFHHPHUJHVDWWKHHQGRIWKHSHULRGXQGHU UHVHUYHGIRUWKHÁRFNVDQGKHUGVRIWKHODQGORUGV UHYLHZKHUHEXWLQFLGHQFHVRFFXUIURPDVHDUO\ with the tenants supplying the commodity but as the 13th century. Across Scotland there is KDYLQJOLWWOHRILWWRVXSSRUWWKHLURZQOLYHVWRFN record from the mid-1200s to early 1400s for a What were the likely consequences of a GHVWUXFWLYHLQWHUSOD\RIPHGLHYDODUDEOHSUDFWLFH VXVWDLQHG HSLVRGH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO VWUHVV" $ – which included stripping of turf from dune 15–20% reduction in the growing season on the DUHDV WR DGG WR FXOWLYDWHG JURXQG WR GHHSHQ HFRQRPLFDOO\YLWDOVXPPHUSDVWXUHVWUDQVODWHVWR DQG HQULFK WKH VRLO ² DQG VWRUP HYHQWV PRVW about a 25–30% reduction in the carrying-capacity FOHDUO\ YLVLEOH LQ WKH ZLQGHURVLRQ RI FXOWLYDWHG of that land. Economic response models of the JURXQGRUWKHLQXQGDWLRQRIÀHOGVEHQHDWKGHHS impacts of deterioration in conditions for arable H[SDQVHV RI ZLQGEORZQ VDQG )URP %DOHVKDUH and fodder production for pre-modern Iceland and the Udal in North Uist, the northern Orkney suggest that prolonged periods of moderately poor LVODQGVWR(OGERWOHLQ(DVW/RWKLDQRU)RUYLHLQ growing seasons are more damaging than smaller Aberdeenshire to Ayr Links on the Clyde coast, QXPEHUV RI PRUH H[WUHPH FOLPDWLF GRZQWXUQV WKH DUFKDHRORJLFDO UHFRUG UHYHDOV FDWDVWURSKLF

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HSLVRGHV RI GXQH GHÁDWLRQ DQG VDQGEORZ DEDQGRQPHQW7KHDVVHVVPHQWUHYHDOVWKDW leading to abandonment of hard-won agricultural IDOOLQJ YDOXHV DIIHFWHG DOO SDUWV RI WKH FRXQWU\ ODQGLQWRZKLFKDKXJHLQYHVWPHQWLQVRLOTXDOLW\ YDOXHV QRUWK RI WKH 7D\ IHOO  WKRVH WR LWV LPSURYHPHQW DQG HQULFKPHQW KDG EHHQ PDGH VRXWKE\DURXQG,IWKH\DUHUHSUHVHQWDWLYH by past generations (Gilbertson et al 1999; RISRSXODWLRQSUHVVXUHWKHVHÀJXUHVVXJJHVWVWKDW +LQGPDUFK+LQGPDUFK 2UDP.LUN population fell nationwide, which runs against 1953; Morrison et al 2008; Oram 2014; Cooper WKRVHWUDGLWLRQDOYLHZVRI6FRWODQG·VH[SHULHQFH (ed) 1883: no 43). The generally poor weather of the Black Death, discussed earlier, that imply through the middle of the century, characterised a differential in impact related to dispersed E\ FROG DQG H[WHQGHG ZLQWHUV DQG FRRO ZHW settlement characteristics in the Highlands and summers, brought further crop failures in more nucleated settlement in lowland areas, but 6FRWODQGEXWLQWKHH[SRVHGQRUWKHUQDQGZHVWHUQ PDWFKHV DUJXPHQWV DGYDQFHG HOVHZKHUH IRU WKH LVODQGVZLQGLQHVVPD\KDYHEHHQPRUHGDPDJLQJ H[SHULHQFH RI WKH FRXQWU\ LQ WK DQG WK in the long term, with the worst effects being felt century epidemics (Oram 2008). What a collapse in the following century. Wind erosion increased LQSRSXODWLRQPD\KDYHGRQHDVDUJXHGE\*UDQW in Orkney towards the end of the 1400s, probably LVVLPSO\KHLJKWHQSUHH[LVWLQJFRQWUDVWVEHWZHHQ H[DFHUEDWHG E\ D UXQ RI FROG GU\ ZLQWHUV DQG different Highland and Lowland agricultural long, hot summers that reduced soil moisture regimes (Grant 1984: 78). Longer term, this OHYHOV:U\FRPPHQWVLQFKDUWHUVDQGOHDVHVLQWKH contrast became entrenched and sharpened the 1480s and 1490s label abandoned landholdings cultural distinctions between Gàidhealtachd and in Westray, Papa Westray and Sanday that had Anglophone districts. VXIIHUHGVHYHUHHURVLRQDV¶EODZLQWR%LUURZQH· In this discussion of climate, weather and (Bergen) (Thomson 1987: 130), a reference to pathogens, it is perhaps too easy to lose sight of the impact of wind on their lighter, sandy soils. the human population and to fall into the trap of 5HQWDOV IURP WKH V DQG V FRQÀUP WKLV HQYLURQPHQWDO GHWHUPLQLVP DV WKH H[SODQDWLRQ SLFWXUH ZLWK H[WHQVLYH DUHDV RI WKRVH LVODQGV IRUDOOVLJQLÀFDQWFKDQJHVHYLGHQWLQWKHSROLWLFDO described as ‘blawin’ or ‘waist’, the south part social, economic and cultural dimensions of of Papa Westray being described as mostly ‘all 6FRWODQG·V ODWHU PHGLHYDO KLVWRU\ 7KLV SDSHU RXU RYHU EODZLQZLWKZDWWLUDQGVDQG· 3HWHUNLQ KDVVRXJKWWREULQJWRWKHIRUHWKHHQYLURQPHQWDO ²² 7KLVUHQWDOHYLGHQFH SURFHVVHVWKDWJLYHFRQWH[WWRWKHH[SHULHQFHRI suggests that despite a probably sharp decline Scotland’s people across the period from the mid- in population from the 1350s and the associated 13th to early 15th centuries, an era characterised FRQWUDFWLRQRIDFUHDJHVXQGHUDUDEOHFXOWLYDWLRQ E\ SURIRXQG VRFLRSROLWLFDO XSKHDYDO LQ ZKLFK the incidence of erosion loss of agricultural land PDQ\ RI ZKDW KDYH ORQJ EHHQ UHJDUGHG DV WKH increased rather than declined in the later Middle GHÀQLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI 6FRWWLVK FXOWXUDO Ages. identity were forged. Those characteristics 6RPH LQGLFDWLRQ RI WKH FXPXODWLYH LPSDFW ZHUHQRWWKHSURGXFWRISDVVLYLW\LQWKHIDFHRI of war, famine and disease can be seen in LUUHVLVWLEOH HQYLURQPHQWDO SKHQRPHQD EXW WKH IDOOLQJ SURSHUW\ YDOXHV DV UHYHDOHG LQ WKH ODQG result of human agency, of choices made as to DVVHVVPHQW RI  :KLOH LW FDQ EH VDLG WKDW how to respond to changing circumstances. While the fall is, in part, a measure of peasant success the language of change and the conditions which LQ VHFXULQJ UHGXFWLRQV LQ OHYHOV RI UHQW SDLG GURYHWKHFKDQJHVPD\YHUJHRQWKHDSRFDO\SWLF much of this decline most probably relates more WKHXQGHUO\LQJQDUUDWLYHLVRQHRIUHVSRQVLYHQHVV GLUHFWO\WRDVKDUSGURSLQSRSXODWLRQOHYHOVDQG and resilience rather than inertia and collapse. the consequent ending of around a century of As archaeological and social anthropological XSZDUG SUHVVXUH LQ UHQWDO YDOXHV IHZHU SHRSOH GLVFRXUVH KDV EHJXQ WR PRYH LQ WKDW GLUHFWLRQ ZHUHQRZSXUVXLQJWHQDQFLHVHYHQRQWKHPRVW 5HGPDQ  .LQ]LJ  .LQ]LJ HW DO   SURGXFWLYH ODQG DQG DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLW\ LQ KRZHYHU GHVSLWH QRZ QHDUO\ WZR GHFDGHV RI PDUJLQDOXSODQGDUHDVH[SHULHQFHGVKULQNDJHDQG HQYLURQPHQWDO KLVWRU\ UHVHDUFK LQ 6FRWODQG WKH

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role of human responses to large scale and long- Annals of Innisfallen at: http://www.ucc.ie/ WHUP HQYLURQPHQWDO WUDQVLWLRQV DV PRWRUV IRU FHOWSXEOLVKHG7LQGH[KWPO Accessed FXOWXUDOUHFRQÀJXUDWLRQVWLOODOOWRRUDUHO\IHDWXUHV 2014. in historical analyses. Annals of Loch Cé at: http://www.ucc.ie/ 7KHUH FDQ EH QR WULYLDOLVLQJ RI WKH UROH RI FHOWSXEOLVKHG7$LQGH[KWPO SROLWLFDO FLUFXPVWDQFHV DIWHU  LQ WKH VRFLDO Accessed October 2014. destabilisation of 14th-century Scotland. But Annals of Ulster otherwise Annala Senait, Annals SROLWLFDOXSKHDYDODORQHGLGQRWFUHDWHWKHVRFLDO of Senat $XWKRU>XQNQRZQ@ DWKWWSZZZ economic and cultural stresses that emerged in XFFLHFHOWSXEOLVKHG7%LQGH[KWPO the course of the 14th century. Those stresses Accessed October 2014. DURVH IURP WKH HQGLQJ RI WKH YLDELOLW\ RI WKH %DLOOLH0*/¶3XWWLQJ$EUXSW(QYLURQPHQWDO DJULFXOWXUDO HFRQRPLF UHJLPH WKDW KDG HYROYHG Change Back into Human History’, in Slack, P DFURVV WKH 0&$ XSRQ ZKLFK WKH HGLÀFHV RI (ed), Environments and Historical Change: the social, political and cultural power and authority Linacre Lectures 2[IRUG 2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ in 12th- and 13th-century Scotland – the tools for Press. WKH¶PDNLQJ·RIWKHPHGLHYDO6FRWWLVKNLQJGRP² Baillie, M G L & Brown, D M 2005 ‘Dendro- had been built, further compounded by the drastic chronology and the Reconstruction of Fine decline in population caused by plague mortality. 5HVROXWLRQ (QYLURQPHQWDO &KDQJH LQ WKH ,WZDVWKRVHZKROLYHGWKURXJKDQGUHVSRQGHGWR Holocene’, in Mackay, A W (ed), *OREDO these phenomena who framed the identity of the Change in the Holocene, 75–91. : new Scotland that emerged in the later 15th and Arnold Publishers. Barrow, G W S 1988 WK FHQWXULHV $VVLJQLQJ JUHDWHU VLJQLÀFDQFH 5REHUW %UXFH DQG WKH Community of the Realm of Scotland, 3rd edn. WR WKH UROH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO FULVLV LQ WULJJHULQJ fundamental social and political reordering has (GLQEXUJK(GLQEXUJK8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV become something of a bandwagon in current Benedictow, O 2004 7KH%ODFN'HDWK² A Complete History. Woodbridge: Boydell historiography, but in the case of 14th- and early Press. WKFHQWXU\6FRWODQGZHVHHPWRKDYHDFOHDU %ULIID.5¶$QQXDOFOLPDWHYDULDELOLW\LQWKH FXWFDVHRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGGLVHDVHGULYLQJWKH Holocene: Interpreting the message of ancient SURFHVVHV RI UHFRQÀJXUDWLRQ LQ WKH PHFKDQLVPV trees’, Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 87– that underpin the economies and cultures which 105. our ancestors shaped in response. Briffa, K R, Jones, P D, Schweingruber, F H & 2VERUQ 7 -  ¶,QÁXHQFHV RI 9ROFDQLF Eruptions on Northern Hemisphere Summer REFERENCES 7HPSHUDWXUHVRYHUWKH3DVW

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0D\KHZ1¶$OH[DQGHU,,,²$6LOYHU$JH" Scotland c 1300 to c 1450’, Journal of the $Q (VVD\ LQ 6FRWWLVK 0HGLHYDO (FRQRPLF North Atlantic 1: 74–84. History’, in Reid, N (ed), Scotland in the Oram, R D & Adderley, P 2010 ‘Lordship, land 5HLJQ RI $OH[DQGHU ,,, ², 53–73. DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO FKDQJH LQ :HVW +LJKODQG Edinburgh: John Donald. and Hebridean Scotland c 1300–c 1450’, in 0RUULVRQ-2UDP5 2OLYHU)¶$QFLHQW &DYDFLRFFKL6 HG (FRQRPLFDQG%LRORJLFDO Eldbottle Unearthed: archaeological and interactions in Pre-Industrial Europe from the KLVWRULFDO HYLGHQFH IRU D ORQJORVW HDUO\ WKWRWKHWK&HQWXULHV²)ORUHQFH PHGLHYDO (DVW /RWKLDQ YLOODJH· Transactions 8QLYHUVLW\RI)ORUHQFH3UHVV of the East Lothian Antiquarian and Field Ormrod, W M & Lindley, P G 2003 7KH %ODFN Naturalists’ Society 27: 21–45. 'HDWKLQ(QJODQG. Donington: Shaun Tyas. 0XQUR -  5HYLVLRQ RI 3KHOSV %URZQ DQG Peterkin, A 1820 Rentals of the Ancient Earldom Hopkins’ ‘basket of consumables’ commodity DQG %LVKRSULFN RI 2UNQH\ :LWK 6RPH 2WKHU price series and craftsmen’s wage series at: ([SODQDWRU\ DQG 5HODWLYH 'RFXPHQWV. http://www.economics.utoronto.ca/munro5/ Edinburgh: John Moir. (QJ%DVNHW3ULFHV[OV $FFHVVHG  2FWREHU 3ÀVWHU&6FKZDU]=DQHWWL* :HJPDQ0 2014. ¶:LQWHU 6HYHULW\ LQ (XURSH WKH )RXUWHHQWK Naphy, W & Spicer, A 2000 7KH %ODFN 'HDWK Century’, Climatic Change 34: 91–108. $ +LVWRU\ RI 3ODJXHV ². Stroud: Phelps Brown, H & Hopkins, S 1981 A Perspective Tempus Publishing Ltd. of Wages and Prices. London: Methuen. 1HZÀHOG 7 3  ¶$ FDWWOH SDQ]RRWLF LQ HDUO\ Postan, M M 1972 The Medieval Economy and fourteenth-century Europe’, Agricultural Society. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson. History Review 57.2: 155–99. Prestwich, M 1988 Edward I. London: Methuen. Oppenheimer, C 2003 ‘Ice Core and Palaeoclimatic 5HGPDQ&/ .LQ]LJ$3¶5HVLOLHQFHRI (YLGHQFH IRU WKH 7LPLQJ DQG 1DWXUH RI WKH Past Landscapes: Resilience Theory, Society, Great Mid-13th Century Volcanic Eruption’, and the /RQJXH'XUpH’, Conservation Ecology International Journal of Climatology 23: 417– 7.1: 14. Online at: http://www.consecol.org/  YROLVVDUW$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU Oram, R D 2008 ‘“It cannot be decernit quha Rogers, C (ed) 1880 5HQWDO%RRNRIWKH&LVWHUFLDQ are clean and quha are foulle.” Responses $EEH\ RI &XSDU$QJXV  YROV /RQGRQ WR HSLGHPLF GLVHDVH LQ VL[WHHQWK DQG Grampian Club. VHYHQWHHQWKFHQWXU\ 6FRWODQG· Renaissance 5RVV$¶6FRWWLVK(QYLURQPHQWDO+LVWRU\DQG and Reformation 30: 13–39. the (Mis)use of Soums’, Agricultural History Oram, R D 2010 ‘Innse Gall: Culture and Review 54: 213–38. (QYLURQPHQW RQ D 1RUVH )URQWLHU LQ WKH 6HOI6=KDR-;+RODVHN5(7RUUHV5&  Scottish Western Isles’, in Imsen, S (ed), The King, A J 1998 ‘The Atmospheric Impact of the Norgesveldet in the Middle Ages, 125–48. 1991 Mt Pinatubo Eruption’, in Newhall, C G, Trondheim: Tapir Press. Punongbayan, R S, Fire and Mud, Eruptions Oram, R D 2011 'RPLQDWLRQ DQG /RUGVKLS DQG /DKDUV RI 0RXQW 3LQDWXER 3KLOLSSLQHV. 6FRWODQG ². Edinburgh: Edinburgh Washington: Smithsonian Institution – Global 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV Volcanism Program: online at: http://pubs. Oram, R D 2014 ‘From “Golden Age” to XVJVJRYSLQDWXERVHOILQGH[KWPO $FFHVVHG 'HSUHVVLRQ /DQG 8VH DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO October 2014. &KDQJHLQWKH0HGLHYDO(DUOGRPRI2UNQH\· 6HUMHDQWVRQ'Farming and Fishing in the in *XOO¡Y + & HG  Northern Worlds: 2XWHU+HEULGHVADWR. Southampton: /DQGVFDSHV ,QWHUDFWLRQV DQG '\QDPLFV. 7KH+LJKÀHOG3UHVV Copenhagen: National Museum of Denmark. Sharples, N M (ed) 2005 A Norse Farmstead in Oram, R D & Adderley, P 2008 ‘Lordship and WKH2XWHU+HEULGHV([FDYDWLRQVDW0RXQG HQYLURQPHQWDO FKDQJH LQ FHQWUDO +LJKODQG %RUQDLV6RXWK8LVW2[IRUG2[ERZ%RRNV

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Shrewsbury, J F D 1970 $+LVWRU\RIWKH%XERQLF Tuchman, B W 1979 $ 'LVWDQW 0LUURU 7KH 3ODJXH LQ WKH %ULWLVK ,VOHV. Cambridge: Calamitous Fourteenth Century. London: &DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV Ballantine Books/Random House. Simpson, I A, Adderley, W P, Guðmundsson, Vinther, B M, Johnsen, S J, Andersen, K K, G, Hallsdóttir, M, Sigurgeirsson, M Á & Clausen, H B & Hansen, A W 2003 ‘NAO Snæsdóttir, M 2002 ‘Land management for signal recorded in the stable isotopes of the surplus grain production in early Iceland’, Greenland icecores’, Geophysical Research Human Ecology 30: 423–43. Letters 30: 1387. Skene, W F (ed), 1872 John of Fordun’s Chronicle Walker, J 1812 An Economical History of of the Scottish Nation YRO  (GLQEXUJK WKH +HEULGHV DQG +LJKODQGV RI 6FRWODQG. William Paterson. Edinburgh: Longman. 6ODYLQ3¶7KH)LIWK5LGHURIWKH$SRFDO\SVH Watt, D E R et al (eds) 1987 Scotichronicon by the Great Cattle Plague in England and :DOWHU %RZHU YRO  $EHUGHHQ $EHUGHHQ and its Economic Consequences’, in 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV &DYDFLRFFKL6 HG (FRQRPLFDQG%LRORJLFDO Watt, D E R et al (eds) 1990 Scotichronicon by Interactions in Pre-Industrial Europe from the :DOWHU %RZHU YRO  $EHUGHHQ $EHUGHHQ WKWRWKHWK&HQWXULHV²)ORUHQFH 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV )ORUHQFH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV Watt, D E R et al (eds) 1991 Scotichronicon by 6WHYHQVRQ - HG   Chronicon de Lanercost. Edinburgh: Bannatyne Club. :DOWHU %RZHU YRO  $EHUGHHQ $EHUGHHQ Strothers, R B 2000 ‘Climatic and Demographic 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV &RQVHTXHQFHV RI WKH 0DVVLYH 9ROFDQLF :DWW ' ( 5 HW DO HGV   Scotichronicon by Eruption of 1258’, Climate Change² :DOWHU %RZHU YRO  $EHUGHHQ $EHUGHHQ 74. 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV Stuart, J & Burnett, G (eds) 1878 The Exchequer Webster, B (ed) 1984 Regesta Regum Scottorum, Rolls of Scotland, YRO  ². YRO  7KH $FWV RI 'DYLG ,,. Edinburgh: Edinburgh: HMSO. (GLQEXUJK8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV Thomson, W P 1987 History of Orkney. Edinburgh: Whittington, G 1985 ‘The little ice age and The Mercat Press. Scotland’s weather’, Scottish Geographical 7KRUROG 5RJHUV - ( ² A History of Journal 101.3: 174–8. Agriculture and Prices in England  YROV =LHJOHU37KH%ODFN'HDWK. Stroud: Sutton 2[IRUG2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV Publishing.

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Table 1 Weather events, famine and epidemics in Scotland, northern England and Ireland from chronicle sources 1251–1447

Year Summer/ Winter/ Storms/ Cold/ Heat Drought Famine Epidemic ƉŝnjŽŽƟĐ Place Autumn Spring Floods Frosts 1251 X X Ireland 1251 X Ireland 1252 X X X Ireland 1252 X X X Scotland England 1252 X X Ireland 1253 X X Good Harvest Ireland 1254 X X Good Harvest Ireland 1255 No weather records 1256 X X X Failed Harvest Scotland England 1257 X X X Scotland England 1258 No weather records 1259 No weather records 1260 X X X Failed harvest Scotland 1261 X X X Scotland 1262 X X X Scotland 1263 X X Ireland 1264 No weather records 1265 X X X X Ireland 1266 No weather records 1267 X X X Scotland 1267 X X X Scotland 1268 X X X Ireland 1268 X X X Livestock deaths (weather) Scotland 1268 X X Scotland 1269 X X Ireland 1270 X X X Ireland 1270 X X X X Scotland 1271 X X X Ireland Scotland 1272 X X X X X X X Ireland Scotland EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵϭϮϳϯƚŽϭϮϴϬŝŶĐůƵƐŝǀĞ 1281 X X X X Livestock deaths (weather) Ireland ,ƵŵĂŶŵŽƌƚĂůŝƚLJ 1282 No weather records 1283 X X Ireland

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Year Summer/ Winter/ Storms/ Cold/ Heat Drought Famine Epidemic ƉŝnjŽŽƟĐ Place Autumn Spring Floods Frosts 1284 X X Ireland 1285 X X Ireland EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵ^ƵŵŵĞƌϭϮϴϲƵŶƟůǁŝŶƚĞƌϭϮϵϬͬϭ 1291 X X England 1292 X X X ŽĂƐƚĂůŝŶƵŶĚĂƟŽŶƐͬŇŽŽĚƐ England 1293 X X X X X Scotland England 1294 X X Scotland 1295 No weather records 1296 X X X X Ireland Scotland England 1297 X X Scotland England EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵƵƚƵŵŶϭϮϵϳƵŶƟů^ƵŵŵĞƌϭϯϬϱ 1305 X X Ireland EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵƵƚƵŵŶϭϯϬϱƵŶƟůǁŝŶƚĞƌϭϯϬϴͬϵ 1308 X X Livestock deaths (weather) Ireland ,ƵŵĂŶŵŽƌƚĂůŝƚLJ;ǁĞĂƚŚĞƌͿ 1309 No weather records 1310 X X Good harvest (Ireland) Ireland tĂƌͲƌĞůĂƚĞĚĨŽŽĚƐŚŽƌƚĂŐĞƐ Scotland (Scotland) EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵƵƚƵŵŶϭϯϭϬƵŶƟů^ƉƌŝŶŐϭϯϭϯͬϰ 1314 X X X Ireland 1315 X X X X X X Ireland Scotland 1316 X X X X X X Ireland Scotland England 1317 X X X Ireland 1318 X X X X Ireland 1319 X X X Scotland England 1320 No weather records 1321 X X X Livestock deaths (weather) Scotland EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨŽƌϭϯϮϮͲϭϯϮϰ 1325 X X X X Ireland 1326 No weather records 1327 X Good harvest Scotland 1327 X X Ireland 1328 X X X X X Ireland

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Year Summer/ Winter/ Storms/ Cold/ Heat Drought Famine Epidemic ƉŝnjŽŽƟĐ Place Autumn Spring Floods Frosts

1329 X X X WŽŽƌͬůĂƚĞŚĂƌǀĞƐƚ Ireland EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚǁĞĂƚŚĞƌĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵtŝŶƚĞƌϭϯϮϵͬϯϬƚŽtŝŶƚĞƌϭϯϯϱͬϲ 1335 X X X Ireland 1336 X X y;ĨŽǁů Scotland ƉĞƐƚͿ 1337 X X X Scotland 1338 X X X X X Ireland (weather) EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵ^ƉƌŝŶŐϭϯϯϵƵŶƟů^ƵŵŵĞƌϭϯϰϴ 1348 X X X England Black Ireland Death Enters England 1349 X X X England Ireland Scotland 1350 X X X England Ireland Scotland 1351 X X X England Ireland Scotland EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨŽƌϭϯϱϮƚŽtŝŶƚĞƌϭϯϱϱͬϲ 1355 X X Scotland 1356 EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚǁĞĂƚŚĞƌĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵ^ƉƌŝŶŐϭϯϱϲƚŽ^ƉƌŝŶŐϭϯϱϴ 1358 X X X Ireland Scotland 1359 EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚǁĞĂƚŚĞƌĞǀĞŶƚƐ 1360 X X X Ireland 1361 X X X England Ireland 1362 X X X England Scotland 1363 X X X England Scotland EŽƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨŽƌϭϯϲϰƚŽϭϯϲϵ 1369 X X X X X X England Ireland 1370 X X X England Ireland 1371 X X X X X England Ireland

Oram, R.indd 242 22/11/2015 13:38 ‘THE WORST DISASTER SUFFERED BY THE PEOPLE OF SCOTLAND IN RECORDED HISTORY’ | 243

Year Summer/ Winter/ Storms/ Cold/ Heat Drought Famine Epidemic ƉŝnjŽŽƟĐ Place Autumn Spring Floods Frosts 1372 X X Scotland 1373 X X X Ireland 1374 X X X England 1375 X X X England 1376 X X X X England 1378 X X X England 1379 X X X England 1380 X X X England

Scotland EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵtŝŶƚĞƌϭϯϴϬͬϭƵŶƟů^ƵŵŵĞƌϭϯϵϬ 1390 X X X England 1391 X X X England 1392 X X X England

Scotland 1393 X X X England EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵtŝŶƚĞƌϭϯϵϯͬϰƚŽ^ƉƌŝŶŐϭϯϵϳ 1397 X X X X Ireland EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵƵƚƵŵŶϭϯϵϳƚŽtŝŶƚĞƌϭϰϬϬͬϭϰϬϭ 1401 X X X Scotland EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐ^ƉƌŝŶŐϭϰϬϮƚŽƵƚƵŵŶϭϰϬϱ 1405 X X Ireland 1406 EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚǁĞĂƚŚĞƌĞǀĞŶƚƐ 1407 X X X X Ireland

(weather) 1408 EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚǁĞĂƚŚĞƌĞǀĞŶƚƐ 1409 X X Scotland EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵ^ƉƌŝŶŐϭϰϭϬƚŽϭϰϭϯ 1413 X X Ireland EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵtŝŶƚĞƌϭϰϭϯͬϰƵŶƟů^ƉƌŝŶŐϭϰϭϵ 1419 X X X Good harvest Ireland

Scotland 1420 X X ,ĂƌǀĞƐƚĨĂŝůƵƌĞ X Scotland 1421 X X Scotland EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵtŝŶƚĞƌϭϰϮϭͬϮƵŶƟůtŝŶƚĞƌϭϰϮϰͬϱ 1425 X X X X Poor harvest X Ireland

Scotland EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵ^ƉƌŝŶŐϭϰϮϲƵŶƟůƵƚƵŵŶϭϰϯϭ 1431 X X X X X Scotland

(weather) Ireland 1432 X X X Scotland 1433 X X Ireland

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Year Summer/ Winter/ Storms/ Cold/ Heat Drought Famine Epidemic ƉŝnjŽŽƟĐ Place Autumn Spring Floods Frosts 1434 X X X Scotland Ireland 1435 X X X X Scotland Ireland EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĨŽƌϭϰϯϲʹϭϰϯϳ 1438 X X Ireland 1439 X X X X Scotland Ireland 1440 X X X Ireland EŽƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐϭϰϰϭʹϭϰϰϲ 1447 X X X X Scotland Ireland

EŽƚĞ͗ƚŚĞĐĂůĞŶĚĂƌLJĞĂƌƐƌƵŶĨƌŽŵϮϱDĂƌĐŚ͕ŚĞŶĐĞƚŚĞ^ƵŵŵĞƌͬƵƚƵŵŶĂŶĚtŝŶƚĞƌͬ^ƉƌŝŶŐĂƌƌĂŶŐĞŵĞŶƚ͘

Oram, R.indd 244 22/11/2015 13:38