Clim. Past, 16, 2343–2358, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2343-2020 © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. A prequel to the Dantean Anomaly: the precipitation seesaw and droughts of 1302 to 1307 in Europe Martin Bauch1, Thomas Labbé1,3, Annabell Engel1, and Patric Seifert2 1Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO), Leipzig, Germany 2Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), Leipzig, Germany 3Maison des Sciences de l’Homme de Dijon, USR 3516 CNRS, Dijon, France Correspondence: Martin Bauch ([email protected]) Received: 3 March 2020 – Discussion started: 20 May 2020 Revised: 2 October 2020 – Accepted: 5 October 2020 – Published: 25 November 2020 Abstract. The cold/wet anomaly of the 1310s (“Dantean 1 Introduction and state of the art Anomaly”) has attracted a lot of attention from scholars, as it is commonly interpreted as a signal of the transition be- tween the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little In recent decades, scholars of medieval studies have pro- Ice Age (LIA). The huge variability that can be observed dur- duced considerable research reconstructing the Little Ice Age ing this decade, like the high interannual variability observed (LIA) (Pfister et al., 1996) and appraising the impacts of cold in the 1340s, has been highlighted as a side effect of this rapid events on pre-modern societies; however, except for the no- climatic transition. In this paper, we demonstrate that a multi- table exception of economic historians, few scholars have seasonal drought of almost 2 years occurred in the Mediter- addressed the issue of droughts (Stone, 2014). Almost two ranean between 1302 and 1304, followed by a series of hot, decades ago, Brown (2001) has highlighted the so-called dry summers north of the Alps from 1304 to 1306. We sug- Dantean Anomaly as a wet and cold anomaly lasting from gest that this outstanding dry anomaly, unique in the 13th and 1315 to 1321 that led to famine over northwestern Europe 14th centuries, together with cold anomalies of the 1310s and (Jordan, 1996). This climatic anomaly has been recently de- the 1340s, is part of the climatic shift from the MCA to the scribed more neutrally as “the 1310s event” (Slavin, 2018). A LIA. Our reconstruction of the predominant weather patterns distinctive “1300 event” has been found in proxy data even of the first decade of the 14th century – based on both doc- around the Pacific rim (Nunn, 2007). Historians have con- umentary and proxy data – identifies multiple European pre- sistently focused on the cold, wet character of this decade, cipitation seesaw events between 1302 and 1307, with simi- seemingly fascinated by continuous rains and their often larities to the seesaw conditions which prevailed over conti- detrimental impacts on food security. A lot has been writ- nental Europe in 2018. It can be debated to what extent the ten, for example, about how excessive rain in 1315 and 1316 1302–1307 period can be compared to what is currently dis- caused harvests to fail and ultimately resulted in a famine in cussed regarding the influence of the phenomenon of Arctic northern Europe (Campbell, 2016; Jordan, 1996). amplification on the increasing frequency of persistent stable However, as modern worries about global warming and weather patterns that have occurred since the late 1980s. Ad- the possibility of more frequent drought events like what oc- ditionally, this paper deals with socioeconomic and cultural curred in 2003 have grown, dry periods have found more and responses to drought risks in the Middle Ages as outlined in more interest among climate historians (Brázdil et al., 2019; contemporary sources and provides evidence that there is a Brázdil et al., 2018; on the Middle Ages: Rohr et al., 2018). significant correlation between pronounced dry seasons and Most of this research, though, deals with the early mod- fires that devastated cities. ern period (Garnier, 2019; Munzar, 2004; Martín-Vide and Barriendos Vallvé, 1995; Weikinn, 1965/66), especially with the “millennium drought” of 1540 (Pfister, 2018; Wetter and Pfister, 2013; Wetter et al., 2014). Concerning the medieval Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2344 M. Bauch et al.: The precipitation seesaw and droughts of 1302 to 1307 in Europe period, the very recent publication on a specific drought year peratures that acted like a north–south seesaw at the begin- like 1473 (Camenisch et al., 2020) is still an exception, pre- ning of the 14th century all over Europe. As we will demon- ceded only by case studies on medieval droughts in Hun- strate, there was an even more pronounced precipitation see- gary and modern-day Croatia (Kiss, 2017; Kiss and Nicolic,´ saw from 1302 to 1307, with extremely dry conditions in 2015). In fact, the socioeconomic impacts of droughts on the Mediterranean from the end of 1302 to early 1304, while medieval societies are more difficult to determine than those normal humidity levels prevailed north of the Alps, and pro- linked with cold, wet weather. In most parts of western Eu- nounced drought periods from 1304 to 1307 in most parts of rope, droughts were largely benevolent, for agricultural pro- western and central Europe. We will examine if this double duction in these areas centered around cereals and wine (Le event might have been the longest, multi-seasonal drought Roy Ladurie, 2004), which easily tolerate dry conditions as by far in three European regions during the 13th and 14th long as the hydric stress does not block vegetation growth, centuries. Our reconstruction of this period is based on doc- as it did in extreme cases like 1540. Droughts thus rarely umentary and proxy data on northern and central Italy (IT), induced socioeconomic disasters in comparison with those eastern France (FR) and central Europe (CE) (Fig. 1). There frequently associated with wet anomalies. As Pribyl (2017) is a dearth of studies on the cultural impacts of drought on states, for example, warm, dry summer half years did not medieval societies, but particularly in regard to the Italian generally endanger crops in medieval England. Only after and French material, we can provide some initial insights into the introduction of Yersinia pestis in 1348 do such summers the economic impacts and stress these droughts imposed on – ideal conditions for flourishing rodent populations – show medieval societies and how they adapted with measures like an indirect statistical correlation with epidemics occurring firefighting and infrastructure to improve access to water and the following year. In Mediterranean regions, droughts must food. have posed a graver danger for crops and had a greater im- The article is structured as follows: Sect. 2 describes and pact on the food supply and living standards, due to a higher evaluates the data sets taken from written and proxy records. vulnerability to lack of water. However, few studies have ad- Section 3 provides an overview of the applied methodolo- dressed this topic. gies of climate and drought indices and the reconstruction of Many climate historians generally date the onset of agricultural production. In Sect. 4, we present our indices re- the transition period from the Medieval Climate Anomaly construction and the meteorological patterns identified in the (MCA) towards the LIA to the turn of the 14th century, and period in question. Furthermore, we compare the chronol- the time around 1300 CE sees the nadir of the Wolf minimum ogy of major fires and droughts and identify the cultural and in solar forcing (Steinhilber et al., 2009). Although these pe- societal impacts of droughts. Section 5 discusses the relia- riods are highly disputed and maybe only regionally appli- bility of narrative sources compared to dendrochronological cable (Andres and Peltier, 2016; Grove, 2001; Pfister et al., data, the impacts of drought on agriculture, the development 1996), this consensus has prompted researchers to empha- of new institutional structures to prevent and fight fires, and size mainly the cold, wet conditions of the 1310s. This ar- the global context of this period. We conclude that the 1302– ticle does not intend to add to the discussion over whether 1307 drought period resembles the 2018–2019 European pre- the MCA and LIA actually occurred and, if so, when the cipitation seesaw and can be interpreted as an indicator of LIA started (Bradley et al., 2003; White, 2014), but it does rapid climate change in the early 14th century. seem worth examining at least the consistently dry decade (at least during the summers) which directly preceded the 2 Data wet, cold period of the 1310s. In fact, in the first decade of the 14th century, two successive major drought events of at 2.1 Narrative sources least supraregional scale affected Europe: one striking Ital- ian regions and another impacting regions north of the Alps. Climate historians have long regarded narrative texts as This article aims both to reconstruct their duration, extent, most important sources of information and, over the course and severity and to examine the related socioeconomic im- of decades, have carefully catalogued relevant events as pacts and sociocultural reactions. It also provides an approx- described in chronicles and annals. This paper draws imate timeline of the underlying meteorological patterns and principally on these previous works. Alexandre (1987), contextualizes these anomalies by comparing them to similar Curschmann (1900), and Weikinn (1958, 2017) each pro- events reported between 1200 and 1400 CE. vided information, and mostly also a reliable critical appa- In 1304, in the conclusion of the annual report, the anony- ratus, for the territories of present-day France, Italy, and cen- mous author of the Greater Annals of Colmar, a Dominican tral Europe.