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Home , Gaza War (2008–2009), Meir Dagan

Mideast

Sinking Ship The attack on the Gaza relief flotilla jeopardizes itself.

By John J. Mearsheimer

ISRAEL’S BOTCHED RAID against the The IDF has not become more com- These ill-conceived operations have Gaza-bound humanitarian flotilla on May petent in recent years. By almost all harmful consequences for Israel. Failures 31 is the latest sign that Israel is on a dis- accounts—including the Israeli govern- leave adversaries intact and make Israeli astrous course that it seems incapable of ment’s own commission of inquiry—it leaders worry that their deterrent reputa- reversing. The attack also highlights the performed abysmally in the 2006 tion is being undermined. To rectify that, extent to which Israel has become a Lebanon war. The IDF then launched a the IDF is turned loose again, but the strategic liability for the . new campaign against the people of result is usually another misadventure, This situation is likely to get worse over Gaza in December 2008, in part to which gives Israel new incentives to do it time, which will cause major problems “restore Israel’s deterrence” but also to again, and so on. This spiral logic, cou- for Americans who have a deep attach- weaken or topple . Although the pled with Israel’s intoxication with mili- ment to the Jewish state. mighty IDF was free to pummel Gaza at tary force, helps explain why the Israeli The bungled assault on the Mavi will, Hamas survived and Israel was press routinely carries articles predicting Marmara, the lead ship in the flotilla, widely condemned for the destruction where Israel’s next war will be. shows once again that Israel is addicted and killing it wrought on Gaza’s civilian Israel’s recent debacles have also to using military force yet unable to do population. Indeed, the Goldstone damaged its international reputation. so effectively. One would think that the Report, written under UN auspices, Respondents to a 2010 worldwide opin- (IDF) would accused Israel of war crimes and possi- ion poll done for the BBC said that improve over time from all the practice. ble . Earlier this Israel, , and Pakistan had the most Instead, it has become the gang that year, the murdered a Hamas negative influence in the world; even cannot shoot straight. leader in Dubai, but the assassins were North Korea ranked better. More worry- The IDF last scored a clear-cut victory seen on multiple security cameras and ing for Israel is that its once close strate- in the Six Day War in 1967; the record were found to have used forged pass- gic relationship with has been since then is a litany of unsuccessful ports from Australia and a handful of badly damaged by the 2008-09 campaigns. The (1969- European countries. The result was an and especially by the assault on the 70) was at best a draw, and Israel fell embarrassing diplomatic row, with Aus- Mavi Marmara, a Turkish ship filled victim to one of the great surprise tralia, Ireland, and Britain each ex- with Turkish nationals. But surely the attacks in military history in the October pelling an Israeli diplomat. most troubling development for Israel is War of 1973. In 1982, the IDF invaded Given this history, it is not surprising the growing chorus of voices in the Lebanon and ended up in a protracted that the IDF mishandled the operation United States who say that Israel’s and bloody fight with . Eigh- against the Gaza flotilla, despite having behavior is threatening American inter- teen years later, Israel conceded defeat weeks to plan it. The assault forces that ests around the world, to include endan- and pulled out of the Lebanese quag- landed on the Mavi Marmara were gering its soldiers. If that sentiment mire. Israel tried to quell the First unprepared for serious resistance and grows, it could seriously harm Israel’s Intifada by force in the late 1980s, with responded by shooting nine activists, relationship with the United States. Defense Minister telling some at point-blank range. None of the his troops to break the bones of the activists had their own guns. The bloody Life as an Apartheid State Palestinian demonstrators. But that operation was condemned around the The flotilla tragedy highlights another strategy failed and Israel was forced to world—except in the United States, of way in which Israel is in deep trouble. join the Oslo Peace Process instead, course. Even within Israel, the IDF was Israel’s response makes it obvious that which was another failed endeavor. roundly criticized for this latest failure. its leaders are not interested in allowing

10 The American Conservative August 2010 the to have a viable state in apartheid state bearing a marked resem- this point recently, and the head of the Gaza and the , but instead are blance to white-ruled South Africa. Mossad, , told the in bent on creating a “Greater Israel” in and their American supporters June, “Israel is gradually turning from an which the Palestinians are confined to a invariably bristle at this comparison, but asset to the United States to a burden.” handful of impoverished enclaves. that is their future if they create a It is easy to see why. Because the Israel insists that its is Greater Israel while denying full politi- United States gives Israel so much sup- solely intended to keep weapons out of cal rights to an Arab population that will port and U.S. politicians routinely laud Gaza. Hardly anyone would criticize soon outnumber the Jewish population the “special relationship” in the most Israel if this were true, but it is not. The in the entirety of the land. In fact, two lavish terms, people around the globe nat- real aim of the blockade is to punish the former Israeli prime ministers—Ehud urally associate the United States with people of Gaza for supporting Hamas Olmert and —have made Israel’s actions. Unfortunately, this makes and resisting Israel’s efforts to maintain this very point. Olmert went so far as to huge numbers of people in the Arab and Gaza as a giant open-air prison. Of argue, “as soon as that happens, the Islamic world furious with the United course, there was much evidence that state of Israel is finished.” States for supporting Israel’s cruel treat- this was the case before the debacle on He’s right, because Israel will not be ment of the Palestinians. That anger in the Mavi Marmara. When the blockade able to maintain itself as an apartheid turn helps fuel terrorism against America. began in 2006, Dov Weisglass, a close state. Like racist South Africa, it will Remember that the 9/11 Commission aide to Prime Ministers and eventually evolve into a democratic bi- Report, which describes Khalid Sheik , said, “The idea is to put national state whose politics will be Muhammad as the “principal architect of the Palestinians on a diet, but not to dominated by the more numerous Pales- the 9/11 attacks,” concludes that his make them die of hunger.” And the Gaza tinians. But that process will take many “animus toward the United States onslaught 18 months ago was designed years, and during that time, Israel will stemmed not from his experiences there to punish the Gazans, not enforce a continue to oppress the Palestinians. Its as a student, but rather from his violent weapons embargo. The ships in the actions will be seen and condemned by disagreement with U.S. foreign policy flotilla were transporting humanitarian growing numbers of people and more favoring Israel.” Osama bin Laden’s hostil- aid, not weapons for Hamas, and Israel’s and more governments around the ity toward the United States was fuelled willingness to use deadly force to pre- world. Israel is unwittingly destroying in part by this same concern. vent a humanitarian aid convoy from its own future as a Jewish state, and Popular anger toward the United reaching Gaza makes it abundantly clear doing so with tacit U.S. support. States also threatens the rulers of Egypt, that Israel wants to humiliate and , and , key U.S. allies subdue the Palestinians, not live side-by- America’s Albatross who are frequently seen as America’s side with them in separate states. The combination of Israel’s strategic lackeys. The collapse of any of these Collective punishment of the Pales- incompetence and its gradual transfor- regimes would be a big blow to the U.S. tinians in Gaza is unlikely to end anytime mation into an apartheid state creates position in the region; however, Wash- soon. Israel’s leaders have shown little significant problems for the United ington’s unyielding support for Israel interest in lifting the blockade or negoti- States. There is growing recognition in makes these governments weaker, not ating sincerely. The sad truth is that both countries that their interests are stronger. More importantly, the rupture Israel has been brutalizing the Palestini- diverging; indeed this perspective is in Israel’s relationship with Turkey will ans for so long that it is almost impossi- even garnering attention inside the surely damage America’s otherwise ble to break the habit. It is hardly surpris- American Jewish community. Jewish close relationship with Turkey, a NATO ing that Jimmy Carter said last year, “the Week, for example, recently published member and a key U.S. ally in Europe citizens of Palestine are treated more an article entitled “The Gaza Blockade: and the Middle East. like animals than human beings.” They What Do You Do When U.S. and Israeli Finally, there is the danger that Israel are, and they will be for the foreseeable Interests Aren’t in Synch?” Leaders in might attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, future. both countries are now saying that which could have terrible consequences Consequently, there is not going to be Israeli policy toward the Palestinians is for the United States. The last thing a two-state solution. Instead, Gaza and undermining U.S. security. Vice Presi- America needs is another war with an the West Bank will become part of a dent Biden and Gen. David Petraeus, the Islamic country, especially one that Greater Israel, which will be an head of Central Command, both made could easily interfere in its ongoing wars

August 2010 The American Conservative 11 Mideast

in Afghanistan and Iraq. This is why the the public debate about whether Israel’s defend Israel no matter what kind of Pentagon opposes striking Iran, actions are damaging U.S. interests. In political system it has. But their num- whether with Israeli or U.S. forces. But fact, it is likely to grow louder and more bers will shrink over time, in large part Netanyahu might do it anyway if he contentious with time. because survey data shows that younger thinks it would be good for Israel, even This changing discourse creates a American Jews feel less attachment to if it were bad for the United States. daunting problem for Israel’s support- Israel than their elders, which makes ers, because they will have to side them less inclined to defend Israel Dark Days Ahead for the Lobby either with Israel or the United States blindly. Israel’s troubled trajectory is also caus- when the two countries’ interests clash. The bottom line is that Israel will not ing major headaches for its American Thus far, most of the key individuals be able to maintain itself as an apartheid supporters. First, there is the matter of and institutions in the lobby have sided state over the long term because it will choosing between Israel and the United with Israel when there was a dispute. not be able to depend on the American States. This is sometimes referred to as For example, President Obama and Jewish community to defend such a rep- the issue of dual loyalty, but that term is Prime Minister Netanyahu have had rehensible political order. a misnomer. Americans are allowed to two big public fights over settlements. have dual citizenship—and in effect, Both times the lobby sided with Assisted Suicide dual loyalty—and this is no problem as Netanyahu and helped him thwart Israel is facing a bleak future, yet there long as the interests of the other country Obama. It seems clear that individuals is no reason to think that it will change are in synch with America’s interests. like Abraham Foxman, who heads the course anytime soon. The political For decades, Israel’s supporters have Anti-Defamation League, and organiza- center of gravity in Israel has shifted striven to shape public discourse in the tions like AIPAC are primarily con- sharply to the right and there is no siz- United States so that most Americans cerned about Israel’s interests, not able pro-peace political party or move- believe the two countries’ interests are America’s. ment. Moreover, it remains firmly com- identical. That situation is changing, This situation is very dangerous for mitted to the belief that what cannot be however. Not only is there now open the lobby. The real problem is not dual solved by force can be solved with talk about clashing interests, but knowl- loyalty but choosing between the two greater force, and many Israelis view the edgeable people are openly asking loyalties and ultimately putting the inter- Palestinians with contempt if not whether Israel’s actions are detrimental ests of Israel ahead of those of America. hatred. Neither the Palestinians nor any to U.S. security. The lobby’s unstinting commitment to of Israel’s immediate neighbors are pow- The lobby has been scrambling to dis- defending Israel, which sometimes erful enough to deter it, and the lobby credit this new discourse, either by means shortchanging U.S. interests, is will remain influential enough over the reasserting the standard argument that likely to become more apparent to more next decade to protect Israel from Israel’s interests are synonymous with Americans in the future, and that could meaningful U.S. pressure. America’s or by claiming that Israel—to lead to a wicked backlash against Remarkably, the lobby is helping quote a recent statement by Mortimer Israel’s supporters as well as Israel. Israel commit national suicide while Zuckerman, a key figure in the lobby— The lobby faces yet another chal- also doing serious damage to American “has been an ally that has paid dividends lenge: defending an apartheid state in security interests. Voices challenging exceeding its costs.” A more sophisti- the liberal West is not going to be easy. this tragic situation have grown slightly cated approach, which is reflected in an Once it is widely recognized that the more numerous in recent years, but the AIPAC-sponsored letter that 337 con- two-state solution is dead and Israel has majority of political commentators and gresspersons sent to Secretary of State become like white-ruled South Africa— virtually all U.S. politicians seem bliss- Hillary Clinton in March, acknowledges and that day is not far off—support for fully ignorant of where this is headed, or that there will be differences between Israel inside the American Jewish com- unwilling to risk their careers by speak- the two countries, but argues that “such munity is likely to diminish significantly. ing out. differences are best resolved quietly, in The main reason is that apartheid is a trust and confidence.” In other words, despicable political system that is funda- John J. Mearsheimer is a professor of keep the differences behind closed mentally at odds with basic American political science at the University of doors and away from the American values as well as core Jewish values. For Chicago and coauthor of The Israel public. It is too late, however, to quell sure there will be some Jews who will Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy.

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